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Lawrence R. Klein [Ideological Profiles of the Economics Laureates] Daniel B Lawrence R. Klein [Ideological Profiles of the Economics Laureates] Daniel B. Klein and Ryan Daza Econ Journal Watch 10(3), September 2013: 388-396 Abstract Lawrence R. Klein is among the 71 individuals who were awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel between 1969 and 2012. This ideological profile is part of the project called “The Ideological Migration of the Economics Laureates,” which fills the September 2013 issue of Econ Journal Watch. Keywords Classical liberalism, economists, Nobel Prize in economics, ideology, ideological migration, intellectual biography. JEL classification A11, A13, B2, B3 Link to this document http://econjwatch.org/file_download/735/KleinIPEL.pdf ECON JOURNAL WATCH Kantorovich, L. V. 1992 [1976b]. Autobiography. In Nobel Lectures: Economic Sciences, 1969–1980, ed. Assar Lindbeck. Singapore: World Scientific Publishing Co. Link Katsenelinboigen, Aron. 1979. L. V. Kantorovich: The Political Dilemma in Scientific Creativity. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 1(2): 129-147. Lawrence R. Klein by Daniel B. Klein and Ryan Daza Lawrence Klein (1920–) was born in Omaha, Nebraska and experienced childhood during the Great Depression. He reflected on the events of his early life: Although I was not aware of it at the time, the experience of growing up during the Great Depression was to have a profound impact on my intellectual and professional career. Collegiate life subsequently gave me a basis for understanding this experience and to develop some analytical skills for dealing with the important economic aspects of this era, as well as the exciting times that were to come—World War II, postwar reconstruction, and expansion. (Klein 1992a/1981) He describes his direction in college: When I entered university my interests began to take shape in the world of ideas. I specialized in both economics and mathematics. I could not see their eventual use together to deal with problems that the world faced. Also, I was not equal to the quick-witted star mathematicians at the university, but I kept being attracted by mathematical problems and their potential use in natural, physical, and social sciences—especially in economics. (Klein 2006, 31) Klein started at Los Angeles City College for his undergraduate studies, earning his degree in economics at the University of California at Berkeley in 1942 and his Ph.D. at MIT in 1944. He moved to join the Cowles Commission, then at the University of Chicago, and later to the University of Michigan where, with Arthur Goldberg, he developed the Klein-Goldberger model. In 1954 he moved to Oxford to do studies on the British economy. In 1958 he moved to and has since been at the University of Pennsylvania, where he founded Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates. jump to navigation table VOLUME 10, NUMBER 3, SEPTEMBER 2013 388 IDEOLOGICAL PROFILES OF THE ECONOMICS LAUREATES Roberto S. Mariano, in a highly informative entry on Klein in The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, says that Klein has been “a pioneer…in developing a worldwide industry in econometric forecasting and policy analysis” (Mariano 2008). At the University of Pennsylvania Klein also helped to establish Project LINK, which, Mariano says, “sought to integrate the macroeconometric models of different countries, which eventually included Third World and socialist nations, into a total simultaneous system….” In an autobiographical essay, Klein notes that the LINK system “now consist[s] of more the 15,000 dynamic nonlinear equations” (Klein 2009, 31). Mariano (2008) remarks: “When one thinks of macroeconometric models, his name is the first that comes to mind.” Klein won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1980 “for the creation of econometric models and the application to the analysis of economic fluctuations and economic policies.” Mariano (2008) reports that, in 1954, “Klein testified in a Detroit hearing that he had been a member of the Communist Party for about six months in 1946.” Klein would have been 26 years old. We have read the transcription of the original hearing (U.S. House 1954, 4991-5002). Klein was summoned and made to answer the questions of ominous government bullies. One cannot put much confidence in what someone says to government officials who wield great power for which they are little accountable. If one were to take Klein’s testimony at face value, it would mean that he was a member of the Communist Party for perhaps two years (1945–1947), was quite sympathetic to socialism up to age 26 or 27, having for several years been involved, uncomfortably, with Marxist groups, and that he then, around 1947, gave up socialism for a more mainstream sort of interventionist economics. Mariano remarks that in 1954 the “University of Michigan was to promote Klein to full professorship but then reneged” after the Communist Party testimony came out, and Klein then went to Oxford. Mariano (2008) notes that “one of Klein’s best-known works” is The Keynesian Revolution, which grew out of his dissertation and was first published in 1947. Richard M. Ebeling says that Klein was “one of the great popularizers of the ‘new economics’ of John Maynard Keynes” and that The Keynesian Revolution “represented the growing consensus of the time among economists and government-policy advocates on how monetary and fiscal tools should be used to manipulate the economy” (Ebeling 2006, 2). The book is remarkable for its confident, forward tone in expounding the new thinking and agenda. In 1959 the American Economic Association awarded Klein the John Bates Clark Medal. Passages from The Keynesian Revolution help to capture Klein’s ideological outlook at age 27, when the book originally appeared. Klein assured his readers that Keynesianism was not socialism: jump to navigation table 389 VOLUME 10, NUMBER 3, SEPTEMBER 2013 ECON JOURNAL WATCH There is a great misunderstanding among the American public that the practical reform measures of the Keynesian economists are leading to socialism. It must be emphasized that the Keynesian reforms do not infringe upon the rights of private individuals to own producer goods. The most important characteristic of a socialist economy is that there do not exist private property rights over producer goods. The Keynesian approach visualizes the state as a balancing force which serves only to supplement the behavior of individual capitalists, while the socialist approach visualizes the state as the sole entrepreneur which replaces, entirely, the individual capitalists. (Klein 1947, 167) Klein outlines “a practical program of economic policy which will be neces- sary in order to reform capitalism to a system of full employment” (1947, 168). Passages from his outline follow: The level of investment can be stimulated most directly by outright government investment. There are many socially useful projects which need to be undertaken … For example, the slums in every metropolitan district of the United States should be cleared away and replaced with modern low-cost dwelling units. Cities should be redesigned to diminish the nuisance of smoke, provide better traffic arteries, allocate space more rationally between dwelling areas and recreation areas, etc. These investments projects have not been and are not being undertaken, yet they are certainly desirable. … Useful investment schemes like these must be undertaken by the sole agency which can afford to take the risk of slow or zero return, the government. It is well known that the magnitude of all such building programs that are socially desirable could insure [re: ensure] full employment in the United States for several years, at least. Here is an obvious method for stimulating the level of investment; the government directly invests in socially desirable projects… (Klein 1947, 170) An alternative method…is to lower business taxes. Economists have recently been arguing strongly in favor of reduced business taxes in order to stimulate investment. However, many of these arguments are not correct. … If the tax rate is changed from 40 per cent to 10 per cent, there is no reason why an entrepreneur who is maximizing his individual profits will directly alter his investment decisions. It is a general proposition that the profit-maximizing decisions of business jump to navigation table VOLUME 10, NUMBER 3, SEPTEMBER 2013 390 IDEOLOGICAL PROFILES OF THE ECONOMICS LAUREATES firms are independent of the income tax structure (progressive or constant proportionality) if the marginal tax rate is always less than unity, as is the case with any reasonable tax system. (ibid., 171) Interest rate policy can, in general, be expected to be quite ineffective. (ibid., 172) [F]orces which tend to lower our propensity to save have evolved naturally in our system, but they can also be incorporated into a consciously directed government policy. We can subsidize truthful advertising and education. We can have government investment projects to mechanize agriculture and get the surplus population off the farms into the city in more productive jobs where these migrants will have a lower propensity to save. We can extend the operations of organizations like the [Federal Housing Authority] to provide credit for durable consumer goods at low interest rates. All these policies will depress the savings schedule and help to reach a high-consumption economy. (ibid., 176) In our modern industrial society built on individualistic principles there are obvious reasons why people save. They save for the rainy days when they will be unemployed, sick, disabled, or too old to work. … The obvious way to diminish savings on account of these primary causes of need is to have the state provide for these needs at the cheapest possible cost. … We need a non-profit institution like the government, which can provide a comprehensive, minimum program of social security in order to reduce the propensity to save. This program must cover the entire population, and it must cover all those contingencies which cause people to save on a large scale for the future.
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