IPO Note- 'Yield Power' Musandam Power Company SAOG
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Musandam Power Company SAOG (Under Transformation) IPO Note- ‘Yield Power’ United Securities LLC 29 October, 2019 Musandam Power Company – IPO Note SUBSCRIBE TO MUSANDAM POWER IPO, TP RO 0.309 is +19% from lower price band Valuation at LP band of RO 0.260 We recommend investors to “SUBSCRIBE” for the IPO of Musandam Power Company (MPC) and expect Phase I Market Cap (RO mn) 18.3 investors to place their bids according to their respective risk appetite. Our 12-Month Fair Value Target Price of RO Enterprise Value (RO mn) 88.9 0.309/Share is based on a blended DDM/Relative valuation, and offers upside potential of 19% from the lower price band. P/E (x) 9.0 At the fair value, the stock offers dividend yield of 8.9% dividend yield, which is slightly below that of the sector average, P/B (x) 2.0 but the premium reflects the superior earnings quality of MPC despite the current subdued market scenario. We expect EV/EBITDA (x) 10.3 MPC IPO to warrant a price range of RO 0.279-0.309, which is in line with the current valuations of IPPs at 2019 Dividend Yield between of 7.0% to 12.6%. Our guidance to investors is to focus on the high dividend yield in the near term, and Dividend Yield (%) 11% target for a continuous dividend income throughout the term of the PPA, even though it is likely to be volatile beyond Offer & Subscription info 2026E. The offer price range of RO 0.260 to RO 0.325 sets the company’s dividend yield range between 8.5% to 10.6%, Paid up capital (RO mn) 7.039 which is attractive at the lower end of the price band. However, we feel the pricing at the upper band as expensive at an Shares on offer (mn) 28.156 implied EV/MW of RO 741 for a RE plant that has run for more than 2 years now. Phase I Book Building - 14.08 mn shares Application size: Minimum 200,100 and in Key investment arguments: multiples of 100 upto maximum 2,815,600 1) Stable revenue and cash flow oriented business model shares 2) Strategic asset in Musandam Governorate increases the chances of PPA extension Phase II Fixed price offer 3) High short term dividend yield, which is expected to continue until 2023 Application size: Minimum 1,000 shares 4) Extendable term loan facility with no cash sweep and balloon loan repayment ensures continuity in dividend and in multiples of 100 upto maximum distributions throughout the PPA 200,000 shares 5) Deleveraging efficiency driving debt-equity levels lower Subscription Calendar Musandam Power Company, with its contracted power capacity of 120.7 MW is the only gas fired IPO in Musandam Governorate. Phase I Offer Open 3-Nov It accounts for ca.59% of total capacity of all power generators in the governorate. It's contracted revenue model with OPWP till January 2032 leads to long term revenue and earnings visibility offering 12 years of PPA life. The EBITDA of MPC is expected to Phase I Offer Close 7-Nov grow at a sustainable CAGR of 0.3% during 2019-31E to RO 8.5 million assuming an efficient technical availability of the plant. Offer Price Announcement 12-Nov The company offers stable dividends through 2023, and the same is likely to continue over the remaining PPA term after Phase II Offer Open TBA accommodating for tax payments. It has reasonable payout levels of 70% through 2023E and has the capability to maintain a Phase II Offer Close TBA moderate payout ratio until the expiry of the PPA. Even though the EPS forecast provides enough cushion for higher payouts, we Major shareholders estimate steady deleveraging coupled with higher finance costs to restrict FCFE growth during the second half of the PPA period. Pre-issue We expect payouts to recover only after full repayment of term loans facility by 2036. A strategic asset for the region: In the absence of an alternative gas based generator and lack of commercially viable OOFDC (69.9%), LGI (30%), OETCL (1%) alternatives, MPC may be considered as an asset of strategic importance for the region. Given the strategic importance of MPC to Musandam and relatively smaller size of the market, single buyer approach by OPWP may be a suitable power procurement Post issue option to be applied in the Musandam Governorate. Thus, we attribute a relatively higher probability of OPWP extending the PPA with MPC after its expiry. Additionally, the capacity of existing plants and firm new builds in Musandam may not be sufficient to OOFDC (42%), LGI (18%), Public (40%) cover demand in the Governorate, resulting in potential operating opportunity for MPC beyond the PPA Risk to rating: The company has witnessed an increasing level of working capital requirement during 1H19, which is unusual in the contracted business model. The management is confident about recovering the amounts from its customer during the course United Securities LLC of the year. Prolonged delays in receivable recovery could lead to working capital squeeze, potentially impacting2 dividend 29 October, 2019 distributions in the future. Musandam Power Company – IPO Note Bear-Base-Bull Scenarios Valuation Matrices BBB -Bull-Base-Bear case approach to valuation Valuation @ RO 0.260/Share 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 We have modeled our key assumptions based on the PPA and the revenue P/E (x) 4.9 9.0 7.2 6.8 6.9 8.0 forecasts provided by the company in its IPO Prospectus. Our assumptions P/B (x) 1.6 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 beyond the PPA term shows a marked difference from what is provided in the Dividend yield (%) 0.0% 10.6% 10.6% 10.6% 10.6% 10.6% Core prospectus. The capital structure is expected to be fully deleveraged only by FCFE yield (%) 11.0% -10.8% 8.4% 9.7% 8.6% 8.4% Forecasting 2036. We assume the company to refinance the balloon portion of debt FCF Yield (%) 11% 43% 45% 46% 44% 44% Assumptions EV/EBITDA (x) 9.8 10.3 9.9 9.4 9.1 8.7 ahead of its repayment due date. Our dividend assumptions are based on EV/MW (RO) 676 702 675 645 619 596 cash availability with the company. We assume a finite plant life of 40 years, PV of dividend (RO) 0.027 0.026 0.023 0.021 0.019 hence no terminal growth rate is assumed for the cash flows. Valuation @ RO 0.325/Share Our Bear case derive a valuation of RO 0.278 implying a 6.9% upside from P/E (x) 6.1 11.2 9.0 8.5 8.7 10.0 the lower price band. The Bear case assumes OPWP offering PPA extension P/B (x) 2.0 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 Dividend yield (%) 0.0% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% at 20% discount to MPC's 2031 EBITDA, and we further assumed tha the FCFE yield (%) 8.8% -8.7% 6.7% 7.7% 6.9% 6.7% Bear Case: DDM EBITDA will grow at a CAGR of 0.3% through the remaining life of the plant. FCF Yield (%) 9% 34% 36% 37% 35% 36% Value per share We have based our 2032 EBITDA assumption on the basis of the discounts EV/EBITDA (x) 10.4 10.9 10.4 10.0 9.7 9.3 @ 0.278 which are experienced by Al Kamil Power for its PPA extension. We also EV/MW (RO) 714 741 713 684 657 634 assumed MPC fully deleveraging by 2036, and assumed maintenance capex PV of dividend (RO) 0.027 0.026 0.023 0.021 0.019 spending post PPA period. We assumed a definte plant life of 40 years and Relative valuation table expect the plant to be decommissioned by 2056E. D/E EV/MW EV/EBITD P/E P/B Div Yield Company Our Base Case valuation of RO 0.325 implies 25% upside from the lower end (x) (RO) A (x) (x) (x) (%) Al Kamil power 0.0 129 7.1 8.5 1.0 12.7% of the offer price, and rests at the higher price band. The Base case assumes Sembcorp Salalah (IWPP) 1.7 667 7.1 7.8 1.1 8.9% Base Case: DDM EBITDA CAGR of 0.4% beyond the PPA term. We have modeled such that Dhofar Generating 3.6 269 13.1 44.8 1.0 9.5% Value per share the plant refinances its balloon portion for 5 years beyond the original PPA Al Batinah Power 1.6 251 6.6 4.8 0.5 10.0% @ 0.325 term and assumed maintenance capex spending as the plant become old Al Suwadi Power 1.6 266 6.5 4.9 0.5 10.1% and on marginal reduction of its efficiency, which extends throughout the post Phoenix Power 1.9 217 8.6 8.2 0.7 7.0% PPA period. Our Bull Case valuation of RO 0.372 implies 14.4% upside from the the Average 1.8 274 7.9 7.5 0.7 9.0% upper price band and 43% from the lower price band. We have based our Median 1.7 259 7.1 8.0 0.8 9.7% Bull Case: DDM growth rate assumption on the IPA power modelling for MPC during the Post- Value per share PPA period. The Bull case assumes EBITDA CAGR of 2% beyond the PPA MPC @ RO 0.260/Share 7.5 702 10.4 9.0 2.0 10.6% @ 0.372 MPC @ RO 0.325/Share 7.5 741 10.9 11.2 2.5 8.5% term, Additionally, we have assumed regular maintenance capex spending from 2031E restricting high FCFE generation from the plant.