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Without Cuomo, Jackson Leads 1988

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Without Cuomo, Jackson Leads 1988 The Harris Survey ------------------ For release: Monday AM, June 1, 1987 1987 1123 ISSN 0273-1037 WITHOUT CUOMO} JACKSON LEADS 1988 DEMOCRATIC FIELD By Louis Harris With Gary Hart out of the race, and with Governor Mario Cuomo, Senator Bill Bradley, and Senator Sam Nunn denying they will enter it, Jesse Jackson has now taken the lead in the 1988 contest for the Democratic nomination. However, it must be pointed out that a bigger choice than Jackson is "None" or "Not Sure" that now totals an abnormally ~Li~h 36 ~~rc~~t.. Among a cross section of 1,167 Democratic and independent voters interviewed by the Harris Survey in April and May by telephone, Jackson has 17 percent, Governor Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts has 12 percent, Senator Paul Simon of Illinois 8 percent, Senator Albert Gore of Tennessee 8 percent, and Representative Richard Gephardt of Missouri also at 8 percent. Trailing behind are former Governor Bruce Babbitt of Arizona at 4 percent, Senator Joseph Biden at 4 percent, and Governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas at 3 percent. When a larger sample of 1,649 adults who identify themselves as Democrats and independents were polled, the results were almost identical, except that Jackson's total went up to 19 percent and Dukakis went down to 11 percent. When cuomo , Bradley, and Nunn' s names are introduced into the equation, the outcome is very different among Democratic and independent voters. Cuomo takes the lead with 25 percent, followed by Jackson at 12 percent, Bradley and Dukakis at 7 percent, Nunn and Gore at 6 percent, Gephardt at 5 percent, Simon at 4 percent, and Babbitt, Biden, and Clinton at 2 percent. Among all Democrats and independents, Cuomo has a lower 21 percent, followed by Jackson at 15 percent, Bradley and Dukakis at 8 percent, Gephardt, Gore, and Nunn at 6 percent, Simon at 4 percent, and Babbitt, Biden, and Clinton at 2 percent. But the results vary greatly by region and key groups in the electorate, indicating that no real national pattern has yet settled in as a result of the withdrawal of Gary Hart: -- By region, Governor Michael Dukakis has a wide lead in the East, with 27 percent, followed by Jackson at 12 percent and Biden at 8 percent. In the Midwest, Senator Paul Simon of Illinois is ahead with 18 percent, followed by Jackson at 15 percent, Gephardt at 14 percent, and Dukakis and Gore at 8 percent. In the South, Jackson is ahead with 21 percent, followed by Gore at 16 percent. In the West, Jackson leads with 19 percent, followed by Dukakis at 10 percent, and Babbitt and Simon at 9 percent. -- Jackson's lead is fashioned from a commanding 61 percent of the black vote that goes to him. However, Jackson also is ahead among Hispanics with 26 percent, followed by Babbitt at 10 percent. Among whites, Dukakis is ahead with 14 percent, followed by Simon, Jackson, Gephardt, and Gore at 9 percent. Significant is the fact that Jackson makes a relatively strong run outside of the ranks of just black voters. He has even support across the regions, is particularly strong among young people and Yuppies, runs a powerful race among women, leads among union voters, is able to get 10 percent of the $50,000 and over vote, and is able to garner votes from liberals, moderates, and conservatives. He is much weaker, however, among white ethnic voters, independents, those with the most education, and among professionals. Dukakis shows significant national support, although he is strongest in his native East. He runs well in the cities, among baby boomers and older voters, is particularly powerful among the best educated, does slightly better among women than men, is strong among professionals, white collar people, those in the higher income brackets, and independent voters, white Catholics, and Jewish voters. (over) THE HARRIS SURVEY -2- June 1, 1987 Senator Paul Simon runs particularly well in his native Midwest, but also scores in the West, is stronger among suburban voters, those 50-64, men, business executives, white collar people, and higher income voters. Senator Albert Gore does best in his native South, among rural voters, young people, the better educated, skilled blue collar workers, independents, more conservative voters, and those who are followers of TV evangelical preachers. Gephardt runs best in his native Midwest, in the cities, among older voters, men, businessmen, blue collar workers, those with incomes $25,000-$35,000, political moderates, and white Catholics. If he were in the race, Cuomo would lead in every region, but especially in his native East. He is strong in the cities and suburbs, among all age groups, the better educated segments, men, professional and business types, those in the higher income brackets, among union members, moderates and liberals, and, most of all, among white Catholics. If Cuomo came into the race, he would be an immediate frontrunner. However, he has steadfastly said he will not run for the Democratic nomination in 1988 and has been firm about it. TAB L E S Between April 10th and 15th and May 8th and 12th, the Harris Survey asked a nationwide cross section of 1,649 Democrats and independents, including 1,167 Democratic and independent voters: by telephone: "Let me read you a list of names of some people who have been mentioned as possible Democratic candidates for president in 1988. If you had to choose, who would be your first choice from that list?" FIRST CHOICE FOR 1988 DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION -- WITHOUT CUOMO, BRADLEY OR NUNN (Base: 1,167 Democratic and independent voters) None/ **Babbitt Biden Clinton Dukakis Gephardt Gore Jackson Simon Not sure % --%­ % % % -%- ,--,­ 11 TOTAL 4 4 3 11 8 8 19 8 35 East 1 7 1 25 5 2 15 4 40 Midwest 3 2 2 7 14 8 14 17 33 South 3 2 6 4 7 15 24 3 36 West 9 3 3 9 6 3 23 7 37 Cities 2 5 3 13 10 6 25 5 31 Suburbs 5 3 3 11 7 6 14 10 41 Towns-rural 4 2 5 8 8 13 19 7 34 Age 18-24 2 3 3 10 6 8 31 7 30 25-29 6 2 5 9 7 8 19 9 35 30-49 3 5 3 11 6 8 20 7 37 50-64 7 4 1 10 13 10 11 12 32 65 and over 3 3 5 12 9 7 13 4 44 ***Yuppies 6 4 2 16 8 5 17 8 34 Less than high school 3 2 5 6 8 9 21 5 41 High school graduate 4 2 3 10 8 8 20 9 36 Some college 5 4 3 12 8 7 17 9 35 College graduate 5 5 2 16 10 7 14 8 33 Postgraduate 5 10 1 22 7 8 8 7 32 Men 4 4 4 11 10 8 18 8 33 Women 4 3 3 11 6 8 20 7 38 White 4 3 3 12 9 9 10 8 42 Black 1 4 3 4 5 4 63 2 14 Hispanic 6 4 4 6 5 3 29 9 34 (continued) THE HARRIS SURVEY -3- June 1, 1987 FIRST CHOICE FOR 1988 DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION -- WITHOUT CUOMO, BRADLEY OR NUNN (cont'd) (Base: 1,167 Democratic and independent voters) None/ **Babbitt Biden Clinton Dukakis Gephardt Gore Jackson Simon Not sure % --%­ % % % -%­ % --%­ % Professional 5 9 1 19 5 5 11 8 37 Executive 4 3 1 13 9 4 15 10 41 Proprietor 2 4 14 8 4 11 12 45 Skilled labor 4 4 3 7 11 9 21 8 33 Unskilled labor 4 1 4 7 7 11 26 5 35 White collar 3 3 4 10 7 10 21 9 33 $7,500 or less 2 4 4 4 7 3 33 6 37 $7,501-$15,000 4 * 3 10 7 16 20 8 32 $15,001-$25,000 3 4 2 11 8 8 18 8 38 $25,001-$35,000 4 3 3 10 12 8 14 9 37 $35,001-$50,000 5 7 7 17 9 6 15 7 27 $50,001 and over 3 5 1 11 8 6 10 9 47 Union household 4 5 2 10 10 7 15 9 38 Nonunion household 4 3 4 11 8 8 19 7 36 Democrat 4 4 2 10 7 7 22 7 37 Independent 4 3 4 12 9 9 16 8 35 Conservative 4 3 5 9 8 9 16 6 40 Middle-of-the-road 5 2 3 12 9 9 17 9 34 Liberal 3 7 2 12 6 6 25 8 31 White Protestant 5 3 4 9 9 12 10 8 40 White Catholic 6 4 2 17 10 5 10 11 35 Jewish 8 22 3 9 2 10 46 White Moral Majority 7 4 5 6 6 13 11 7 41 **Former Governor Bruce Babbitt of Arizona Senator Joseph Biden of Delaware Governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas Governor Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts Representative Richard Gephardt of Missouri Senator Albert Gore of Tennessee Reverend Jesse Jackson Senator Paul Simon of Illinois None-NS = None or not sure * = less than 0.5 percent *** Yuppies = at least some college and age 18-39 = no response FIRST CHOICE FOR 1988 DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION WITH CUOMO, BRADLEY AND NUNN (Base: 583 Democratic and independent voters, interviewed between May 8th and 12th only) Governor Mario Cuomo of New York 25 Reverend Jesse Jackson 12 Senator Bill Bradley of New Jersey 7 Governor Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts 7 Senator Albert Gore of Tennessee 6 Senator Sam Nunn of Georgia 6 Representative Richard Gephardt of Missouri 5 Senator Paul Simon of Illinois 4 Former Governor Bruce Babbitt of Arizona 2 Senator Joseph Biden of Delaware 2 Governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas 2 None-Not sure 22 (over) THE HARRIS SURVEY -4- June 1, 1987 MET HOD 0 LOG Y This Harris Survey was conducted by telephone within the United States between April 10th and 15th and May 8th and 12th, among a cross section of 1,649 Democrats and independents nationwide, including 1,167 Democratic and independent voters.
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