Controversial Jesse Jackson Widens Lead Among Democrats

The Harris Survey

For release: Monday AM, Octobe~ 2E, 198~ 1987 *45 ISSN 0273-1037

CONTROVERSIAL JESSE JACKSON WIDENS LEAD AMONG DEMOCRATS

By Louis Harris

With the Democratic Party candidates winnowed down to six, Jesse Jackson has now moved out to a clear lead. receiving 20 percent of the vote of Democratic and independent voters, weI: ahead of Governor Michael Dukakis in second place at 14 percent. and Senator A~Oert Gore in third at lC perc2nt.

Since the last Harris Survey soundings in June, Jackson has gained dramatically fro~ 14 to 20 percent. Almost all of his gain has been among white voters, among whom he is now the first choice of 12 percent. Not surprisingly. Jackson is the first choice of 64 percent of black voters.

Of course. Jackson also leads in another category: 33 percent of all Democrats and a h i qhe r 50 percent of all independents say they could not vote for h i.m if he is nominated for president by the Democratlc Party. The other striking result is the emergence of Senator Albert Gore of Tennessee as the leading candidate ir, the white South and a real force among conservative voters. Gore has taken a hard line on defense lssues In recent debates in an effort to appeal to more conservative voters in his own home southern region. He has rationalized this change of position by saying that he will have tlme later on. if nominated, to demonstrate ho~ liberal he is on a number of issues. On March 8th, Super-Tuesday will take place with primaries in 13 southern states. As the only Southerner. Gore hopes to become the front runner with a stronger regional appeal. He has scored quite heaVily in a short period of time in moving toward this obJective. He lS the choice of 18 percent of all Democratic and independent voters in the South and is the preferred c ho i.c e of 12 percent of all conservatives.

Governor Dukakis has gone up from 10 to 14 percent. but almost all of this gain has been among independent not Democratic voters. Among just Democrats, Dukaki s has increased f r orr, 10 to 12 percent since June. However. this is basically more a gain resulting from the drop-out of Senator Joseph Biden and Representative Patricia Schroeder than from an absolute increase in backing. By contrast, Gore has moved froffi 5 to 11 percent among Democratic voters and Jackson from 15 to 23 percent. Thus, Dukakls has not lost ground absolUtely as a reSult of the fracas over his campaign manager and closest political associate, John Sasso, having been revealed as the source of tape documentation that Senator Biden had plagiarized whole passages from speeches of other public figures. By the same token, whatever momentum Dukakis had may have been at least temporarily halted. Some political observers had felt that Dukakis was rapidly moving to the front runner position, leading decisively in neighboring Ne~ Hampshire. having moved up to second place in Iowa. and clearly ahead of the pack in raising money. The next 30 to 60 days will likely prove decisive for the Duk aki s candidacy.

But the big news from this latest special Harris Survey, taken by telephone oetween ocrcoer LllW and ~l~., cLiI10i".; c. r.c.~:"'ui'".LQ.: ::~C:;2 scct i cn cf £3~ l:~el~' De~~crati,= anc independent voters. screened from a larger sample of 990 Democrats and independents in the adult population. is the spectacular showing of Jesse Jackson:

On & regional basis. Jackson trails Dukakis by only a narrow 27 to 2~ percent in the East, leads Senator Paul Simon by 17 to 16 percent in the Midwest. is ahead of Senator Gore in the South by 19 to 18 percent, and leads Dukakis in the West by 17 to 14 percent. These results indicate clearly that Jackson's is a national candidacy, compared with othe~ candidates whe have appeal in their own home regions.

(over) THE HARRIS SURVEY -2- October 26, 1987

-- Jackson leads in the cities, in the suburbs, and also in small towns and rural areas.

-- He holds a clear lead among younger voters between 18 and 30, and among those between 30 and 49. With Republicans having made major gains among younger voters in recent years, Jackson has now emerged as having more appeal to younger voters than any other Democrat.

Jackson leads among both men and women. He is the first choice of not only blacks but also hispanics. Jackson holds a wide lead among union members, the choice of 27 percent, compared with 12 percent who prefer Dukakis and 11 percent who prefer Gore. Among just Democrats, Jackson holds a wide lead with 23 percent, compared with 12 percent for Dukakis, 11 percent for Gore, 6 percent for Representative Richard Gephardt and Senator Paul Simon, and 4 percent for former Governor Bruce Babbitt of Arizona.

conventional wisdom has it, of course, that Jesse Jackson cannot obtain the Democratic nomination because he is a black &nd beca~se h~ is so cont~o,ersial a figu~2 who has a third of all Democrats who would vote against him. In the South, 46 percent say they could not vote for him (almost all whites), among rural voters 47 percent can't go for him, 52 percent of business executives could not take him, and 47 percent of those with postgraduate degrees say they would not vote for him. These are high numbers. Among Democrats in recent times, only George Wallace had comparable numbers who said they could not cast their ballots for him, even if he ended up their party's nominee.

Somehow, nonetheless, Jesse Jackson's appeal seems to continue to go up. As he talks far more mainstream politics in 1987 compared with his previous run in 1984, Jackson attracts an increasing share of the Democratic and independent vote. He is by far the best known of the candidates, with name recognition at 95 percent, compared with 61 percent for Dukakis, 40 percent for Simon, 39 percent for Gore, 37 percent for Gephardt, and 24 percent for Babbitt.

Yet, as other candidates have become better known, such as Dukakis, Jackson has continued to gain ground.

Nonetheless, the Democratic contest must be viewed as wide open, since 8 percent say they have no choice and another 30 percent say they are not sure about their preference. This is the highest recorded for the Democrats in modern times.

TAB L E S

Between October 2nd and 7th, the Harris Survey asked a nationwide cross section of 634 Democratic and independent voters by telephone:

"Let me read you a list of some people who have been mentioned as possible Democratic candidates for president in 1988. Who on that list do you feel you are not familiar with?"

DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES NOT FAMILIAR WITH

Democrat and Independent Democrat Independent % % %

Former Governor Bruce Babbitt

of Arll.Ona I G ':7 i'epresentative Richard Gephardt of Missouri 63 62 63 Senator Albert Gore of Tennessee 61 62 60

(continued) THE HARRIS SURVEY -~- October 26, 1987

DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES NOT FAMILIAR WITH (cont'd)

Democrat and Independent Democrat Independent % % %

Senator Paul Simo:. of Illinois 60 62 56

Governor Michael Dukak~s of Massachusetts 39 45 28

Reverend Jesse Jacksor. 5 5 4

"Now, if you had to choose from that list, who would be your first choice for the Democratic nomination for president ir, 1988""

FIRST CHOICE FOR DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION IN 1988

OCTOBER 198' JUNE 1987 Democrat Democrat and and Inde- Inde- Inde- Inde ___ ....:l __ ~ ..... ,..,_~,...?"'O __ ~ "'"'o,....,,.,o,....~ n~nr:'.~nr t:c .....u.'C ... '- De.o,c(::- :. t" ...... '- .... ~ I'~!'r.C'':!"a-t: r'- ....--~· - .- - 1 ~ % % % %

Reverend Jesse Jacksor. 2 C· 23 12 14 15 12

Governor Michae: Dukakis of Massachusetts 14 l.L 18 10 10 10

Senator Albert Gore of Tennessee lC 8 5 9

Representative Richard Gephardt of Missour::' -; E 9 6 6 6

Senator Paul Simon of Il.l.incis -; C 9 :, 6 4

Former Governor Bruce Babbitt of Arizona .; .; c; 3 3 4

None 8 E 10 13 11 15

Not sure 3C 32 29 33 37 28

OCTOBER DEMOGRAPHICS - - FIRST CHOICE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

DEMOCRAT:LC AND IlmE?EHDENT VOTERS **Jack- Gep- Not son Dukakis Gore hardt Simon Babbitt None sure 'c % ~ ~ ~ % ~ ~

~ TOTA~ Lv- 14 10 7 -; 4 8 30

East 27 ~ .; 3 2 6 30 Midwest 9 6 15 16 * 7 30 South 9 18 6 4 6 9 29 West 14 8 4 6 8 8 35

Cities 1 8 7 9 1 6 30 Suburbs 1 10 6 s 3 9 32 Towns-rura: ~ 12 i o 8 9 7 29

(over) THE HARRIS SURVEY -4- October 26, 1987

OCTOBER DEMOGRAPHICS -- FIRST CHOICE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATIOK (cont'd)

DEMOCRATIC AND INDEPENDENT VOTERS **Jack Not son Dukakis Gore Simon Babbitt None sure % % % --%- % % ~

Age 18-24 31 17 10 8 12 ~ 19 25-29 25 11 2 5 13 9 35 30-39 24 19 13 1 4 3 4 26 40-49 20 13 E 5 8 4 10 34 50-64 11 11 12 10 9 S 13 29 65 and over 13 13 13 9 9 E 37

Less than high schoel 7 9 4 E 4 High school graduate 21 1: 14 E 7 10 28 Some college 1E 15 4 10 J..l 2 9 31 College graduate 11 22 13 to 3 7 2 30 , 1 c; Postgraduate 16 "'- 6 1C 9 36

Men 19 14 11 9 8 4 7 28 Women 20 1:' 9 6 6 4 8 32

White 12 15 11 8 3: Black 64 S 2 5 18 Hispanlc 25 22 9 5 5 29

Professional 12 16 8 7 L 8 35 ExecutivE lS 20 9 6 9 14 4 23 Proprietor 24 19 14 3 ~ S 8 24 Skilled labo:: 27 14 10 6 6 :: 7 28 Unskilled labc:: 29 3 14 5 8 6 4 31 White colla:: 20 19 9 7 4 5 31

Union househole iL 12 11 3 4 4 1 32 Nonunion househole 19 14 10 9 8 4 8 28

Democrat 23 J..: 11 6 6 4 6 32 Independent 12 18 8 9 9 5 10 29 **Jackson = Reverend Jesse Jackson Dukakis = Governor Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts Gore = Senator Albert Gore of Tennessee GephardL = Representative Richard Gephardt of Missouri Simon = Senator Paul Simo~ of Illinois BabbitL = Former Governor Bruce Babbitt of Arizona

"wni cr, people on that list do you feel you could nOL vote for if nominat.ed for president in 1988? Any others?"

DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES COULD NOT VOTE FOR

Democrat and Independent Democrat Independent % % %

Reverend Jesse Jackson 39 33 50

Former Governer Bruce Babbitt of ArizonE. 15 15 lS

Senator Albert Gore of Tennessee 12 11 13

Governor Michael Dukakls ' r-. 1 • of Massachusetts 10 "'-~ ~~

(continued) THE HARRIS SURVEY - 5- October 26, 19B!

DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES COULD NOT VOTE FOR (cont'd)

Democrat and Independent Democrat Independent % % %

Representative Richard Gephardt of Missour: 10 10 9

Senator Paul s rrnor, of Illinois 10 9 12

None 15 17 13

Not sure 23 24 20

DEMOGRAPHICS ON DEMOCRATS COULD NOT VOTE FOR

DEMOCRATIC AND INDEPENDENT VOTERS **Jack- Gep- Not sor. Babb':'tt Gore Dukakis hardt Simon None sure --e- --0 , Sc 'c % 't ~ ~ ~

TOTJ,L 39 15 12 10 10 10 15 23

East ~4 17 16 11 15 15 14 24 Midwest 32 13 12 12 6 11 17 31 South 46 14 9 11 1:"- 6 13 18 West 4C' ... :J 11 6 5 10 19 20

Cities 3:' 19 18 13 ...' ~- 14 15 24 Suburbs 3E- lL 9 8 8 7 14 23 Towns-rural .;7 14 9 10 10 10 17 22

Less than high school .):' E lE 10 1:.. 11 13 3C High school graduate C .l .. 9 10 7 9 15 24 Some college 39 16 10 11 9 7 18 18 College graduate 33 13 11 9 L 15 19 22 Postgraduate .;7 2:"- 20 14 16 17 14 14

Professional C 19 13 12 '.'--'. , 17 15 17 Executive 5:2 18 19 10 16 5 15 10 Proprietor 36 19 21 10 7 10 17 21 Skilled labor 37 12 14 14 12 9 16 18 Unskilled labor 36 12 3 8 5 11 12 24 White collar 34 16 15 14 10 9 2:"- 16

Democrat 33 15 11 10 10 9 17 24 Independent 50 15 13 11 9 12 13 20

Conservative 54 14 10 12 7 15 7 20 Moderate 34 17 11 9 10 9 20 20 Liberal 25 12 16 13 13 6 18 32

White TV Evangelical followers 52 14 4 9 8 13 16 22 **Jackson = Reverend Jesse Jackson Babbitt = Former Governor Bruce Babbitt of Arizona Gore = Senator Albert Gore of Tennessee Dukaks':' = Governor Mlchael Dukakis of Massachusetts Gephardt = Representative Richard Gephardt of Missouri Simon = Senator Paul Slmon of Illincis

* less than 0.5 percrent = no response

(over) THE HARRIS SURVEY -6- October 26, 1987

MET HOD 0 LOG Y This Harris Survey was conducted by telephone within the United States between October 2nd and 7th, among a cross s ec t i or, of 634 Democratic and independent voters, screened from 1,574 adults, including 990 Democrats and independents nationwide. Figures for age, sex, race and education were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population.

In a sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus four percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled.

This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.