Species Status Assessment Report for Cirsium wrightii (Wright’s Marsh Thistle) Version 1.0

Photo courtesy of Robert Sivinski, 2012.

October 2017

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Region 2 Albuquerque, NM This document was prepared by Patricia Zenone, Susan Pruitt, Ron Vandervort, and Susan Oetker with assistance from Julie Crawford and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Wright’s Marsh Thistle Listing Recommendation Team (Ted Koch, Susan Jacobsen, Shawn Sartorius, Jodie Smithem, Susan Millsap, and Steve Spangle). We also received assistance from species experts Robert Sivinski (retired) and Daniela Roth of New Mexico State Forestry. We appreciate their input and comments, which resulted in a more robust status assessment and final report.

Also, we wish to thank Dr. Robert Sivinski for the use of his photographs in this SSA.

With appreciation, in memoriam, to Dr. Patricia Zenone, biologist, ornithologist, and dedicated conservationist.

Suggested reference:

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2017. Species status assessment report for Cirsium wrightii (Wright’s Marsh Thistle), Version 1.0. October 2017. Albuquerque, NM.

Cirsium wrightii SSA Report ii October 2017 WRIGHT’S MARSH THISTLE SPECIES STATUS ASSESSMENT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This species status assessment reports the results of the comprehensive status review for Cirsium wrightii (Wright’s marsh thistle (Gray 1853, p. 101)) and provides a thorough account of the species’ overall viability and extinction risk. Depending on environmental conditions, C. wrightii can exhibit life history characteristics of a biennial plant (a plant completing development in two years, and producing flowers in its second year) or a weak monocarpic perennial (a plant that lives two or more years, then flowers, sets seed, and dies). The species occurs in New Mexico in wet, alkaline soils in spring seeps and marshy edges of streams and ponds between 1,150 and 2,390 meters (m) (3,450 and 7,850 feet (ft.)) in elevation (Figure ES- 1). Its flowers are white to pale pink in areas of the Sacramento Mountains (i.e., western populations), but are vivid pink in all the Pecos Valley locations (i.e., eastern populations). The locations in the Pecos Valley also tend to have taller plant heights and darker green foliage.

Cirsium wrightii was historically known to occur in Arizona and New Mexico in the United States, and Chihuahua and Sonora in Mexico (Sivinski 2012, p. 2). The single location in Arizona was a historical 1851 collection from San Bernardino Cienega, which straddles the international border with Mexico, and no longer has suitable wetland habitat on the Arizona side of the line (Baker 2011, p. 7). There were ten historical occurrences in New Mexico; however, in a recent search effort at one of the sites (Lake County), the species was not found (Sivinski 2011, p. 40), and another of the ten records (Rattlesnake Springs, Eddy County) is now thought to be a hybrid between C. wrightii and C. texanum (NMRPTC 2009, p. 2). The status of the species in Mexico is presumed extirpated. There have been few verified historical collections, and the most recent site visit to Fronteras, MX and Cerro Angostura, MX indicated that the habitat had been mostly dried out and is considered no longer suitable (Sivinski 2017b, pers. comm.). Therefore, C. wrightii has been extirpated from all previously known locations in Arizona, two historical locations in New Mexico, all known locations in Mexico, and was misidentified and likely not ever present in Texas. In New Mexico, there are eight general confirmed locations of Cirsium wrightii covering an area of approximately 43 hectares (ha) (106 acres (ac)): Santa Rosa, in Guadalupe County; Bitter Lake NWR, in Chaves County; Blue Spring, in Eddy County; La Luz Canyon, Karr/Haynes Canyons, Silver Springs, and Tularosa Creek, in Otero County; and Alamosa Creek, in Socorro County (Bridge 2001, p. 1; Sivinski and Bleakly 2004, p. 2; NMRPTC 2009, p. 1; Sivinski 1994, p. 1; 1996, p. 2; 2005, p. 1; 2005a, pp. 3-5; 2009a; Service 1998, p. 1; Worthington 2002, p. 1; 2002a, pp. 1–3).

In this species status assessment, we used the three conservation biology principles of resiliency, representation, and redundancy to assess Cirsium wrightii viability (Shaffer and Stein 2000, pp. 306-310). Briefly, resiliency supports the ability of the species to withstand environmental and demographic stochasticity; representation supports the ability of the species to adapt over time to long-term changes in the environment; and redundancy supports the ability of the species to withstand catastrophic events. In general, the more redundant and resilient a species is and the more representation it has, the more likely it is to sustain populations over time, even under changing environmental conditions. Using these principles, we identified the species' ecological requirements for survival and reproduction at the individual, population, and species levels, and described the risk factors influencing the species' viability.

Cirsium wrightii SSA Report iii October 2017 For Cirsium wrightii to maintain viability, its populations or some portion thereof must be able to withstand stochastic disturbance. Resource needs that influence the resiliency of populations include alkaline soils, constant soil saturation, abundance of insect pollinators, and availability of full sunlight. Additionally, secondary resource needs include agents of seed dispersal (wind, water, mammals, and birds), and water availability for seed germination. Factors which influence those resource needs will determine whether C. wrightii populations are able to sustain adequate numbers within habitat patches of adequate area and quality to maintain survival and reproduction in spite of disturbance, thereby increasing the resiliency of populations. Maintaining representation in the form of genetic or environmental diversity is important to maintain Cirsium wrightii’s capacity to adapt to future environmental changes. An abundance of insect pollinators, particularly bees and butterflies, leads to genetic diversity by the process of cross pollination between patches within a population. The differences in flower color (and perhaps differences in mature plant maximum growth height) represent differences in ecological adaptability between the eastern and western populations of C. wrightii, which may also represent a form of genetic diversity. Cirsium wrightii needs to have multiple resilient populations distributed throughout its range to provide for redundancy. The more populations, and the wider the distribution of those populations, the more redundancy the species will exhibit.

Current Condition

As stated above, the best available information indicates that Cirsium wrightii is currently restricted to eight localities in New Mexico. We believe the plant has been extirpated in Arizona, Mexico, and two locations in New Mexico, and never occurred in Texas. To determine the current condition of the species, we ranked each population based on six factors relating to population and habitat variables including habitat quantity, number of patches, abundance, reproduction, permanent root saturation, and full sun (Table ES-1). According to our current condition rankings, of the eight extant populations in New Mexico, three have been determined to have moderate resiliency, two have low resiliency, and three have very low resiliency and are at risk of extirpation (Table ES-2). We consider C. wrightii to have representation in the form of genetic and environmental diversity resulting in two distinct phenotypes in the western and eastern populations, as described above. Within the two representation areas (east and west), there are three populations extant in the east, and these occupy the largest areas. The five extant populations in the western representation are much smaller in both the area occupied and population size. So while there is a greater redundancy in terms of number of populations in the western phenotype, the western populations are less resilient. The eastern form is likely more resistant to stochastic events due to higher resiliency imparted by larger occupied areas, greater number of springs supporting populations, higher populations numbers, and the fairly large distance between each of the three eastern populations (approximately 100 mi (160 km) from one population to the next (making them less likely to be impacted by the same catastrophic events).

Cirsium wrightii SSA Report iv October 2017 Cirsium wrightii faces threats from habitat degradation due to decreased water availability, ungulate grazing, native and non-native plants, and oil and gas development and mining. These threats, which are expected to be exacerbated by continued drought and the effects of climate change, were important factors in our assessment of the future viability of C. wrightii. Since there are a range of possibilities regarding the intensity of these threats acting on the population, we have forecast Cirsium wrightii resiliency, representation, and redundancy under four plausible scenarios. We considered a range of potential scenarios that represent different possibilities for how the stressors outlined above may influence the future condition of the species.

Scenario 1—Continuing Current Condition

This scenario projects the condition of Cirsium wrightii populations if the current risks to population viability continue with the same trajectory as demonstrated currently. Decreased water availability continues to impact the population via continuing levels of drought, along with ground and surface water depletion. Climate change continues to occur at a low level and has cumulative effects (an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 1.5°F (0.83 °C) over 50 years. Grazing continues where it has been occurring and the impacts will accumulate over time. Competition from native and non-native plants continues, along with any current impacts from oil and gas development.

Under this scenario, we would expect C. wrightii’s viability to be characterized by some loss of resiliency. Of the eight currently extant populations, no populations would be in high overall condition, two would be in moderate condition, three would be in low condition, two would be in very low condition, and one would become extirpated. The five extirpated sites would continue to be extirpated. Over the next 10 years, this scenario is moderately likely to occur. After 25 years the Continuing Conditions scenario is somewhat likely to occur and at 50 years is unlikely to occur, due to the accumulating effects of climate change, leading to increased drought and water depletion, which will likely decrease soil saturation further over time. Table ES-2 shows the results of this scenario in terms of overall condition for each population.

Scenario 2—Optimistic

This scenario projects the condition of Cirsium wrightii populations if conservation measures are enacted to limit the impacts of current risks to population viability. Conservation efforts are put in place to lessen the impacts of decreased water availability via ground and surface water depletion, where possible. Conservation efforts are also taken to address the impacts of livestock grazing and competition with native and non-native plants. We assume that the effects of climate change are on the low end of the spectrum (with an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 1.0°F (0.6 °C) and increases in mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of 0-10 millimeters (mm) over 50 years), leading to less severe effects of drought on the riparian ecosystems on which C. wrightii depends.

Under this scenario, all eight currently extant populations are able to maintain or improve their current condition. Overall, there would be two populations in high condition, one in moderate condition, two in low condition, and three in very low condition. Over the next 10 years, this

Cirsium wrightii SSA Report v October 2017 scenario is unlikely to occur, but over time the probability of occurrence may increase somewhat due to cumulative effects of conservation measures done that benefit the plant. After 25 and 50 years, the best case scenario would be somewhat likely to occur. Table ES-2 shows the results of this scenario in terms of overall condition for each population.

Scenario 3—Major Effects

This scenario projects the condition of Cirsium wrightii if stressors on the population are increased. We expect a decrease in water availability, along with increased negative impacts from grazing, native and non-native plants, oil and gas development, and mining. We assume that climate change effects will be in the moderate range of projections (with an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 3.0°F (2.0 °C) and increases in mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of 10-30 mm over 50 years), with increased impacts of drought. .

Under this scenario, there would be two populations in moderate condition, two in low condition, and one in very low condition. Three of the eight extant populations would become extirpated. Overall condition would have declined in two of the remaining populations. Over the next 10 years, this scenario somewhat likely to occur, but 25 years from now it is moderately likely to occur, and in 50 years it is highly likely to occur due to climate change, severe drought events, additional groundwater depletions and diversions, expanding oil and gas exploration, increasing livestock grazing, and increasing urban development with higher water demand by municipalities. Table ES-2 shows the results of this scenario in terms of overall condition for each population.

Scenario 4—Severe Effects

This scenario projects the condition of Cirsium wrightii populations under the assumption that stressors on the population are highly increased. In relation to Scenario 3, we expect a further decrease in water availability, along with further increased negative impacts from ungulate grazing, native and non-native plants, oil and gas development, and mining. We assume that climate change effects will be on the higher end of projections (with an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 5.0°F (3.0 °C) and increases in mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of 30-80 mm over 50 years), with increased impacts of drought.

Under this scenario, three of the eight currently extant populations would continue, all of them in low overall condition and subject to extirpation. All five western populations would become extirpated. Over the next 10 years, this scenario is unlikely, but 25 years from now it is somewhat likely to occur, and in 50 years it is moderately likely to occur due to major climate change, frequent severe drought events, extreme groundwater depletions and diversions for agricultural and municipal use, ongoing oil and gas extraction, increasing and less restricted livestock grazing, and ever increasing urban development. Table ES-2 shows the results of this scenario in terms of overall condition for each population.

Cirsium wrightii SSA Report vi October 2017 Table ES-1. The six population and habitat characteristics used to create the condition categories in Table ES-2. Descriptions are provided for each factor as to how this relates to high, moderate, and low condition categories. Population Factors Habitat Factors Condition Habitat Permanent Root Abundance Number of Patches Reproduction Full Sun Category Quantity Saturation Seeps, springs, 5 or more times the cienegas, streams No obstructions >50 ac High >5,000 mature individuals >10 number of rosettes to spreading water during any life

mature plants normally above and stage below ground Seeps, springs, cienegas, streams 2-4times the number 20-50 ac 2,500-4,999 mature constrained by some Patchy shade 75% Moderate 5-10 of rosettes to mature individuals drying, dewatering, full sun plants levees, trenches, or dikes Seeps, springs, <2 times the number cienegas, streams Full sun obscured <20 ac Low <2,500 mature individuals <5 of rosettes to mature are drying or being by vegetation 50%

individuals actively dewatered or more or diverted Seeps, springs, cienegas, streams None Population is Extirpated None remaining None have dried or been Full shade remaining presumed extirpated dewatered or diverted

Cirsium wrightii SSA Report vii October 2017 Table ES-2. Table shows Cirsium wrightii population conditions in 25-50 years under each scenario. The dark line separates the Eastern (top) from the Western (bottom) populations. Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Population Current conditions Continuing Current Optimistic Major Effects Severe Effects Condition Santa Rosa Basin Moderate Moderate High Moderate Low

Bitter Lake NWR Moderate Moderate High Moderate Low

Roswell Country Club Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated

Blue Spring Moderate Low Moderate Low Low

Alamosa Springs Low Low Low Very Low Extirpated

Tularosa Creek Very Low Extirpated Very Low Extirpated Extirpated

Silver Springs Very Low Very Low Very Low Extirpated Extirpated

La Luz Canyon Very Low Very Low Very Low Extirpated Extirpated

Karr/Haynes canyons Low Low Low Low Extirpated

Lake Valley Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated

San Bernardino Cienega, AZ Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated

Fronteras, MX Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated

Cerro Angostura Spring, MX Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated

Cirsium wrightii SSA Report viii October 2017

Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... iii CHAPTER 1 – INTRODUCTION ...... 1 CHAPTER 2 – INDIVIDUAL RESOURCE NEEDS, ...... 3 LIFE HISTORY, AND BIOLOGY ...... 3 2.1. Taxonomy ...... 3 2.2. Genetic Diversity ...... 3 2.3. Morphological Description ...... 4 2.3.1. Morphological Differences Between Eastern and Western Populations ...... 6 2.4. Life History ...... 8 2.4.1. General ...... 8 2.4.2. Pollination ...... 8 2.4.3. Seeds and Seed Bank ...... 8 2.4.4. Germination ...... 9 2.4.5. Seedlings ...... 9 2.4.6. Rosettes ...... 9 2.4.7. Mature Plants ...... 10 2.5. Resource Needs of Individuals ...... 11 CHAPTER 3 – POPULATION DISTRIBUTION, POPULATION NEEDS AND CURRENT SPECIES CONDITION ...... 14 3.1. Historical Range and Distribution ...... 14 3.1.1. New Mexico ...... 14 3.1.2. Arizona ...... 15 3.1.3. Texas ...... 15 3.1.4. Mexico ...... 16 3.2. Current Range and Distribution ...... 18 3.2.1. New Mexico ...... 19 3.2.1.1. Santa Rosa Wetlands...... 19 3.2.1.2. Bitter Lake NWR ...... 22 3.2.1.3. Blue Spring ...... 23 3.2.1.4. Alamosa Springs ...... 23 3.2.1.5. Tularosa Creek ...... 23 3.2.1.6. Silver Springs Canyon ...... 24

Cirsium wrightii SSA Report ix October 2017

3.2.1.7. La Luz Canyon ...... 24 3.2.1.8. Karr/Haynes Canyons ...... 24 3.2.2. New Mexico Survey Areas and Counts ...... 26 3.2.3. Areas Presumed Extirpated ...... 27 3.2.3.1. Roswell ...... 27 3.2.3.2. Lake Valley ...... 27 3.2.3.3. San Bernardino Cienega ...... 27 3.2.3.4. Fronteras, Mexico ...... 27 3.2.3.5. Cerro Angostura Spring ...... 27 3.2.4. Summary ...... 27 3.3. Needs of Cirsium wrightii ...... 28 3.3.1. Population Resiliency ...... 28 Habitat Elements that Influence Resiliency ...... 30 3.3.2. Species Representation ...... 32 3.3.3 Species Redundancy ...... 32 3.4 Current Conditions ...... 32 3.4.1. Current Population Resiliency ...... 33 3.4.2. Current Species Representation ...... 37 3.4.3. Current Species Redundancy ...... 37 CHAPTER 4 –INFLUENCES ON VIABILITY ...... 39 4.1 Decreased Water Availability ...... 39 4.1.1. Drought ...... 39 4.1.3. Climate Change ...... 44 4.2. Ungulate Grazing ...... 48 4.3. Native and Nonnative Plants ...... 51 4.3.1 Competition...... 51 4.3.2. Increased Wildfire Threat ...... 52 4.3.3. Summary of Native and Nonnative Plant Stressors ...... 53 4.4. Oil and Gas Development and Mining ...... 53 4.5. Pollinators ...... 55 4.6. Summary ...... 56 CHAPTER 5 – VIABILITY ...... 57 5.1. Introduction ...... 57 5.1.1. Scenarios ...... 57

Cirsium wrightii SSA Report x October 2017

5.2. Scenario 1—Continuing Current Condition ...... 59 5.2.1. Resiliency ...... 59 5.2.2. Representation...... 67 5.2.3. Redundancy...... 67 5.3. Scenario 2—Optimistic ...... 69 5.3.1. Resiliency ...... 69 5.3.2. Representation...... 77 5.3.3. Redundancy...... 77 5.4. Scenario 3—Major Effects ...... 79 5.4.1. Resiliency ...... 79 5.4.2. Representation...... 86 5.4.3. Redundancy...... 86 5.5 Scenario 4—Severe Effects ...... 88 5.5.1. Resiliency ...... 88 5.5.2. Representation...... 95 5.5.3. Redundancy...... 95 5.6. Status Assessment Summary ...... 97 LITERATURE CITED ...... 101

Cirsium wrightii SSA Report xi October 2017

CHAPTER 1 – INTRODUCTION

Cirsium wrightii (Wright’s marsh thistle (Gray 1853, p. 101)), a member of the Asteraceae (sunflower) family, produces a 3- to 8-foot (ft.) (0.9- to 2.4-meter (m)) single stalk covered with succulent leaves. Depending on environmental conditions, it can exhibit life history characteristics of a biennial plant (a plant completing development in 2 years, and producing flowers in its second year) or a weak monocarpic perennial (a plant that lives two or more years, then flowers, sets seed, and dies). The species occurs in New Mexico in wet, alkaline soils in spring seeps and marshy edges of streams and ponds between 3,450 and 7,850 ft. (1,150 and 2,390 m) in elevation.

Cirsium wrightii has been a candidate for listing under the Endangered Species Act of 1973, as amended (Act), since 2010 (75 FR 67925). The State of New Mexico lists C. wrightii as endangered under the New Mexico Endangered Plant Species Act (9-10-10 NMSA). Cirsium wrightii occurs in some of the same New Mexican cienegas occupied by the federally threatened Helianthus paradoxus (Pecos sunflower).

The Species Status Assessment (SSA) framework (Service 2016, entire) is intended to support an in-depth review of the species’ biology and threats, an evaluation of its biological status, and an assessment of the resources and conditions needed to maintain long-term viability. The intent is for the SSA Report to be easily updated as new information becomes available and to support all functions of the Endangered Species Program from Candidate Assessment to Listing to Consultations to Recovery. As such, the SSA Report will be a living document upon which other documents, such as listing rules, recovery plans, and 5-year reviews, would be based if the species continues to warrant listing under the Act.

This SSA Report for Cirsium wrightii is intended to provide the biological support for the decision on whether or not to propose to list the species as threatened or endangered and, if so, where to propose designating critical habitat. Importantly, the SSA Report does not result in a decision by the Service on whether this species should be proposed for listing as a threatened or endangered species under the Act. Instead, this SSA Report provides a review of the available information strictly related to the biological status of C. wrightii. The listing decision will be made by the Service after reviewing this document and all relevant laws, regulations, and policies, and the results of a proposed decision will be announced in the Federal Register, with appropriate opportunities for public input.

For the purpose of this assessment, we generally define viability as the ability of Cirsium wrightii to sustain populations over time. Using the SSA framework (Figure 1.1), we consider what the species needs to maintain viability by characterizing the status of the species in terms of its resiliency, redundancy, and representation (Wolf et al. 2015, entire).

• Resiliency describes the ability of populations to withstand stochastic events (arising from random factors). We can measure resiliency based on metrics of population health (e.g., germination rates and population size). Highly resilient populations are better able to withstand disturbances such as random fluctuations

1 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 in birth rates (i.e., demographic stochasticity), variations in rainfall (i.e., environmental stochasticity), or the effects of anthropogenic activities.

• Representation describes the ability of a species to adapt to changing environmental conditions. Representation can be measured by the breadth of genetic or environmental diversity within and among populations and gauges the probability that a species is capable of adapting to environmental changes. The more representation, or diversity, a species has, the more it is capable of adapting to changes (natural or human caused) in its environment. In the absence of species-specific genetic and ecological diversity information, we evaluate representation based on the extent and variability of habitat Figure 1.1 Species Status Assessment characteristics across the geographical Framework range.

• Redundancy describes the ability of a species to withstand catastrophic events. Measured by the number of populations, their resiliency, and their distribution (and connectivity), redundancy gauges the probability that the species has a margin of safety to withstand or can bounce back from catastrophic events (e.g., a rare destructive natural event or episode involving many populations).

To evaluate the biological status of Cirsium wrightii both currently and into the future, we assessed a range of conditions to allow us to consider the species’ resiliency, redundancy, and representation (sometimes referred to as the 3Rs). This SSA Report provides a thorough assessment of biology and natural history of the species and assesses demographic risks, stressors, and limiting factors in the context of determining the viability and risks of extinction for the species.

The format for this SSA Report includes: (1) species information and the resource needs of individuals (Chapter 2); (2) Cirsium wrightii’s historical distribution and a framework for determining the distribution of resilient populations across its range to determine species viability (Chapter 3); (3) the likely past, current, and future influences on species needs for long- term viability (Chapter 4); and concluding with (4) a description of the species’ future viability in terms of resiliency, redundancy, and representation (Chapter 5). This document is a compilation of the best available scientific and commercial information and a description of past, present, and likely future stressors to C. wrightii.

2 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017

CHAPTER 2 – INDIVIDUAL RESOURCE NEEDS, LIFE HISTORY, AND BIOLOGY

In this chapter we provide basic biological information about Cirsium wrightii, including its taxonomic history, genetics, morphological description, and known life history traits. We then outline the resource needs of individuals and populations of C. wrightii. Here we report those aspects of the life history of C. wrightii that are important to our analysis.

2.1. Taxonomy

Cirsium wrightii was described by Asa Gray in the Smithsonian Contributions to Knowledge Vol. V (1853, page 101), and by Coulter 1891 (p. 244). Approximately 200 species of Cirsium occur worldwide (Keil 2006, p. 95), with 47 Cirsium taxa in Arizona and 43 Cirsium taxa in New Mexico (SEINet, accessed May 24, 2017). Cirsium wrightii is one of the few thistles restricted to boggy soil.

The currently accepted classification is:

Division: Tracheophyta Class: Magnoliopsida Order: Asterales Family: Asteraceae (Compositae) Species: Cirsium wrightii

Cirsium wrightii is a wetland obligate (occurs only in water-saturated soils) that was originally collected in 1851 at San Bernardino Cienega, Cochise County, Arizona (Gray 1853, p. 101; Smithsonian 1849, p. 1). Historically, the species was found in Arizona, New Mexico, as well as Chihuahua and Sonora, Mexico (Gray 1853, p. 101; Coulter 1891, p. 244; Kearney and Peebles 1951, p. 952; Correll and Johnston 1970, p. 1719; Service 1995, p. 1), with reports from Texas as well. However, it was learned that an occurrence of another thistle, Cirsium texanum (Texas thistle), in Presidio County, Texas, had been incorrectly identified as C. wrightii (Poole 2010, p. 1). All of the previously presumed specimens of C. wrightii from Texas have now been correctly identified as C. texanum (Texas thistle), rather than C. wrightii (Sivinski 1994a, p. 1; 1996, p. 2; 2006a, p. 1; Worthington 2002a, p. 4). These species are easily confused on herbarium sheets which often do not adequately display the growth form of C. wrightii (Sivinski 1996a p. 2). However, in the field, C. wrightii differs from C. texanum in physical appearance (New Mexico Rare Plant Technical Council (NMRPTC) 2009, p. 1)).

2.2. Genetic Diversity

The genus Cirsium mainly grows in the Northern Hemisphere, in Europe, North Africa, Siberia, central Asia, west and east Africa, and Central and North America. The genus Cirsium, with its aerially buoyant seed, is known for wide gene flow (Sheidai et al. 2013, p. 384). To date, no genetic studies have been conducted on Cirsium wrightii; however, it is likely that at least

3 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 closely aggregated groups of plants have genetic exchange. Bees are the primary pollinators of C. wrightii, especially bumble bees (Bombus spp.) (Sivinski 2017b, pers. comm.). The sympatric native thistle species Cirsium vinaceum is capable of crossbreeding with C. wrightii to produce hybrid offspring. However, C. wrightii is only sympatric with C. vinaceum at one location (Silver Springs), where hybrid offspring are uncommon (Sivinski 2006b, p. 7).

Cirsium wrightii typically occurs in groups of plants or patches of widely varying numbers. For example, at Bitter Lake NWR, some Cirsium wrightii patches are small with less than 50 individuals, while other large patches have thousands of individuals (Sivinski 2012, p. 30). We consider gene flow to occur within a patch, but gene flow between separate patches may or may not occur, depending on proximity and degree of uniformity of habitat. Sivinski (2012, p. 53) found that the northern-most and southern-most Cirsium wrightii patches at Bitter Lake NWR are 0.6 mi (1 km) apart, but the intervening habitat is continuously similar, and concluded there is likely regular gene flow via pollinators.

The Santa Rosa Basin has numerous scattered Cirsium wrightii patches. None are more than 0.6 mi (1 km) distant from a nearest neighbor, but the intervening habitats are occasionally quite different types (e.g., Pecos River valley) and gene flow may be less than frequent (Sivinski 2012, pp. 53). In this population, the group of patches are somewhat separated geographically by discontinuous habitat, but interconnected through patterns of gene flow through pollen and seed dispersal (Sivinski 2006b, pp. 7, 11). The remaining six extant populations are isolated.

In conclusion, we consider the individual patches that make up populations of Cirsium wrightii to have effective gene flow, with a lesser degree of gene flow within the Santa Rosa population, and little or no gene flow between separate populations due to the large distances between extant populations in New Mexico and the discontinuity of the intervening habitat. Implied genetic diversity exists within the population, as flower color differs between the eastern (Pecos Valley) and western mountainous populations (see description of this difference below in 2.3.1. Morphological Differences Between Pecos River and Western Populations).

2.3. Morphological Description

Cirsium wrightii is distinctive among southwestern thistles. It is characterized by its tall (3- to 8- foot (ft.) (0.9- to 2.4-meter (m)), erect growth form which has a single central stalk that is densely covered with succulent leaves which are strongly decurrent (with bases of leaves extending down the stem as two wings). The plant is prickly with short black spines and has short taproots with many slender fibrous lateral roots (Figure 2.1; Sivinski 1996a, p. 1; Arizona Game and Fish Department (AGFD) 2001, p. 1). Numerous slender flowering branches emerge at broad angles from the stalk, starting about one-third up the length of the plant. The flowering branches at the top of the plant are the longest. Each branch is terminated by one or a few small flowering heads, which have numerous slender phyllaries (small bracts forming the flower head of a composite plant) (Sivinski 1996, p. 1). Flowering occurs August to October (Sivinski 1996, p. 1). Flowers are white to pale pink in areas of the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico, but are vivid pink in the Pecos Valley (Sivinski 1996a, p. 1).

4 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Cirsium wrightii keys close to two nonnative plants, C. arvense and C. palustre (Baker 2011, p. 4). In the field, C. wrightii may be easily distinguished from the other two species by its tall stature; large, somewhat succulent, nearly glabrous (smooth surface) basal leaves; small heads; and green phyllaries with glutinous (sticky) ridges and very small terminal spines (at the ends of phyllaries; i.e., composite flower heads) (Baker 2011, p. 4).

Figure 2.1. Close-up picture of Cirsium wrightii mature plants. Photo courtesy of Robert Sivinski, 2012.

5 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 2.3.1. Morphological Differences Between Eastern and Western Populations

There are two regional varieties of Cirsium wrightii. The more eastern populations in the Pecos River valley have pink flowers and dark green foliage, while the more western and southern populations in New Mexico (and the previous populations in Arizona and Mexico) have white or pale pink flowers and pale green foliage (Sivinski 2011, pp. 27–28). These two geographic groups are shown in Table 2.1 below, and the morphological differences are shown in Figure 2.2. The differences serve as evidence of ecological adaptability within the species and we presume these differences represent genetic diversity between the eastern and western populations.

Table 2.1. Names of the extant and extirpated Eastern and Western populations of Cirsium wrightii.

Western Populations Eastern Populations

Extant Extirpated Extant Extirpated

Karr/ Haynes Roswell Country Lake Valley Santa Rosa Basin Canyons Club San Bernardino La Luz Canyon Bitter Lake NWR Cienega, AZ

Silver Springs Fronteras, MX Blue Spring

Cerro Angostura Tularosa Creek Santa Rosa Basin Spring, MX Alamosa

Springs

6 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Cirsium wrightii from Karr Canyon, Cirsium wrightii from Bitter Lake NWR 10 Sacramento Mountains, New Mexico km E of Roswell, New Mexico

7 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Figure 2.2. Flower color comparison for Western (left) and Eastern (right) populations of Cirsium wrightii. Photos courtesy of Robert Sivinski, 2012.

2.4. Life History

2.4.1. General—Depending on environmental conditions, Cirsium wrightii can display life history traits of a biennial (a plant completing development in 2 years, flowering in its second year) or a weak monocarpic perennial (a plant that flowers, sets seed, and then dies). Cross pollination is achieved by insect pollinators, primarily bees. Like other species in the genus Cirsium, C. wrightii produces numerous seeds per flowering plant. After germination, seedlings develop into an intermediate rosette form for most of a year or longer before bolting (producing a stem) and growing into the mature, flowering plant. It does not reproduce vegetatively (asexually from parent plant).

2.4.2. Pollination—Species of Cirsium may be pollinated by a wide variety of insects, including social bees, solitary bees, flies, and beetles (Powell et al. 2010, pp. 910–911; Sivinski 2017b, pers. comm.). Bees are the primary pollinators of C. wrightii, especially bumble bees (Bombus spp.), with butterflies also being common pollinators (Sivinski 2017b, pers. comm.). Bumble bees are large, strong fliers and some species frequently travel 1 mile (mi) (1.5 kilometer (m)) or more to patches of desirable forage plants (Osborne et al. 2008, p. 406). Sivinski (2017b, pers. comm.) observed bumble bees, black swallowtails (Papilio polyxenes), green June beetles (Cotinis nitida), and oblique syrphid flies (Allograpta obliqua), among other insect pollinators, visiting C. wrightii. Hummingbirds have been observed visiting C. wrightii flower heads as well, but it is unknown if hummingbirds affect much pollination of the plant (Keil 2006, p. 131). The presence of other species of native flowering plants may help to attract abundant pollinators, and thus also benefit Cirsium wrightii. This may be more important for western populations of C. wrightii, where there are fewer thistles. In the larger eastern populations, there are likely enough individual C. wrightii to attract pollinators.

2.4.3. Seeds and Seed Bank—We are unsure that continuing and adequate seed banks exist at the 8 population localities in New Mexico. Cirsium wrightii seed banks have not been studied, though we assume that the seed bank is not long-term persistent due to the wet nature of the sites which may reduce long-term viability of seed (Roth 2017c, pers. comm.). In addition, seed banks of C. wrightii may be reduced annually due to predation from insects and birds, by seed moving to non-habitat via wind or water dispersal, or by the germination of many seeds which grow into the sometimes thousands of rosettes that have been reported from sites (Sivinski 2012, pp. 9, 57). Because of the persistence of the populations at these locations, some seed banks must exist, but it is possible that low recruitment of seeds into the seed bank (especially with the smaller populations) may result in an inadequate seed bank and may be one of the causes for declining populations at some locations.

As with most thistle species, Cirsium wrightii does produce many seeds; however, a good portion are depredated by insects and birds, with the remaining falling to the ground (Sivinski 2017c, pers. comm.). Sivinski noted he has seen lesser goldfinches peck apart the mature heads of C. wrightii for the seeds. Further, the primary insect predator is a Tephritid fly, Paracantha gentilis, which is a native fly that lays its eggs on most native thistle species. One larva can consume about one third to one half of the developing ovaries in the affected heads. Sivinski 8 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 noted that he has seen a lot of new seedlings, but did not know specifically when they germinated.

2.4.4. Germination—Thomson studied the germination requirements of Cirsium vinaceum (Sacramento Mountains thistle) and found that C. vinaceum seed germinates best in well-lit conditions. Huenneke and Thomson surmised that if a dense cover of nonnative plants became established in C. vinaceum habitats, germination would be inhibited by access to light, and the population might decline (Service 2008a, p. 21). While we do not have information specific to C. wrightii, we assume its seeds may also need fairly direct sunlight for germination, and nonnative plant cover may inhibit germination. C. vinaceum and C. wrightii grow at different elevations and have different reproductive strategies (C. vinaceum produces rhizomes, or underground stems, whereas C. wrightii does not), so they may not be analogous, and seeds of C. wrightii may not need direct sunlight for germination (Roth 2017d, pers. comm.). However, we make the assumption that direct sunlight is preferred for germination. Also, we assume variations in rainfall probably have no effect on germination because the C. wrightii habitat is typically spring-fed wetlands with consistently saturated soil (Sivinski 2017a, pers. comm.).

Roth (2017c, pers. comm.) is currently conducting a series of monitoring transects at Blue Hole Cienega in Santa Rosa to document population trends in response to a prescribed burn. Part of the study area may include cattle grazing during the winter months. The results of this study may yield more information on Cirsium wrightii germination timing, seedling establishment, and the response to fire and grazing.

2.4.5. Seedlings—We have no specific information on seedlings, but make the assumption that, like rosettes and mature plants, they require moist soil and root saturation, along with direct sunlight for germination. We make the assumption that seedlings require the space to emerge (e.g., microsite free of competing vegetation), and are subject to desiccation.

2.4.6. Rosettes— Cirsium wrightii produces basal rosettes that persist through the first year or more until producing a flowering stem (Baker 2011, p. 4). Rosettes can live from one to several years until enough energy is stored in the root to send up a flowering stem in late summer to early autumn. It is typical to have 5 to 20 times more C. wrightii rosettes than flowering plants (Sivinski 2009a. p. 2). The mortality rate of the rosette stage has not been studied. The rosettes may initially face competition from dense wetland vegetation (especially Eleocharis rostellata (beaked spikerush)), but as they grow quite large, they likely are not adversely affected by this competition. Thus, we assume that rosettes do not require the same level of direct sunlight as mature plants and seedlings. The high ratio of rosettes to mature flowering thistles is likely because the flowering plants die after flowering (last only one season), whereas rosettes can sometimes live for more than one year before they flower (Sivinski 2017a, pers. comm.).

9 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 2.4.7. Mature Plants—Mature Cirsium wrightii have numerous slender flowering branches emerging from the stalk beginning from about one-third up the length of the plant, with each flowering branch terminated by one or a few small flowering heads (Sivinski 1996, p. 1). Flowering occurs late summer to fall (August to October) (Sivinski 1996, p. 1). The mature plant requires direct sunlight to set seeds, and then it dies (Figure 2.3).

Figure 2.3. Figure shows the life history stages and the processes which affect each of those stages for Cirsium wrightii.

Cirsium wrightii Life History

Mature plants Pollination

Rosettes Seeds Key

Life stages Dispersal

Seedlings Germination Processes

10 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 2.5. Resource Needs of Individuals

Cirsium wrightii is a rare wetland species that grows in marshy habitats with year-round, water- saturated soils, at elevations between 3,450 and 7,850 feet (ft.) (1,150 and 2,390 meters (m)) in elevation (Sivinski 1996, p. 1; 2005a, pp. 3-4). It is usually associated with alkaline springs and seeps ranging from low desert up to ponderosa pine forest (Sivinski 2005a, p. 3). Cirsium wrightii is an obligate of seeps, springs, and wetlands that have saturated soils with surface or subsurface water flow (Sivinski 1996a; Service 1998; Worthington 2002a, p. 2; NMRPTC 2009). Common associates include Scirpus spp. (bulrush), Eleocharis rostellata (beaked spikerush), Helianthus paradoxus (Pecos sunflower), Juncus spp. (rush), and Typha spp. (cattail) (Sivinski 1996a, pp. 2-5; Sivinski and Bleakly 2004, p. 2; Worthington 2002a, pp. 1–2).

Most of the areas occupied by Cirsium wrightii are open cienega or boggy margins of open water or along excavated drains. A few C. wrightii occur in Typha spp. (cattail) stands, and many occur in fairly open stands of Phragmites australis (common reed). Surprisingly, several hundred C. wrightii rosettes were found well within some very dense, tall stands of P. australis in Sivinski’s 2012 survey. Almost all of these were juvenile rosettes, and it appears that maturation and flowering is suppressed by the shade in dense patches of P. australis (Sivinski 2012, p. 33). Therefore, we infer that rosettes can survive without as much direct sunlight as mature plants.

Sufficient pollinators are needed to complete cross pollination of plants both within patches at each population and between subpopulations in the Santa Rosa population. Many generalist pollinators may visit Cirsium wrightii (Sivinski 2017b, pers. comm.). The most common pollinators of C. wrightii are bees, especially bumble bees (Bombus spp.) (Sivinski 2017b, pers. comm.). As noted above, bumble bees are strong fliers and may travel 1 mi (1.5 km) or more to patches of C. wrightii (Osborne et al. 2008), and thus could provide cross pollination and gene flow within the Santa Rosa population.

Thus, depending on life stage, Cirsium wrightii needs to have permanent root saturation; alkaline soils; full, direct, or nearly full sunlight; and abundant pollinators, including bumble bees (Figure 2.4; Table 2.2).

11 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Cirsium wrightii Life History

Mature plants Pollination

Permanent Root Saturation Full Sunlight Rosettes Alkaline Soil Seeds

Key

Life Dispersal stages

Processes Seedlings Germination

Resource Needs

Figure 2.4. Resource needs for each life stage for Cirsium wrightii. Arrows originating from the middle box indicate that life stages with arrows require all three resource needs.

12 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Table 2.2. Resource needs of Cirsium wrightii at each life cycle stage. Life Stage Resource Needs (Habitat) References Sivinski 2005a, pp. 3–4; Sivinski 1996a; Service • Water-saturated soils 1998; Worthington 2002a, • Alkaline soils p. 2; NMRPTC 2009. Seeds • Dispersal mechanisms (wind, Craddock and Huenneke water, birds, mammals) 1997; Cain et al. 2000; Sivinski 2017c, pers. comm. • Water-saturated soils with surface or subsurface water flow Sivinski 2005a, pp. 3–4; that allow permanent root Sivinski 1996a; Service Seedlings saturation 1998; Worthington 2002a, • Alkaline soils p. 2; NMRPTC 2009 • Elevation between 3,450 and 7,850 ft. (1,150 and 2,390 m) • Water-saturated soils with surface or subsurface water flow Sivinski 2005a, pp. 3–4; that allow permanent root Sivinski 1996a; Service saturation 1998; Worthington 2002a, Rosettes • Alkaline soils p. 2; NMRPTC 2009; • Elevation between 3,450 and Worthington 2002a 7,850 ft. (1,150 and 2,390 m) Sivinski 2012, p. 33 • Direct sunlight (less than mature plants) • Water-saturated soils with surface or subsurface water flow Sivinski 2005a, pp. 3–4; that allow permanent root Sivinski 1996a; Service saturation 1998; Worthington 2002a, • Alkaline soils p. 2; NMRPTC 2009; Mature Plants • Elevation between 3,450 and Worthington 2002a. 7,850 ft. (1,150 and 2,390 m) Sivinski 2012, p. 33 • Direct sunlight Sivinski 2017a, pers. • Pollinators (mainly bees and comm. butterflies; also flies, beetles)

13 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 CHAPTER 3 – POPULATION DISTRIBUTION, POPULATION NEEDS AND CURRENT SPECIES CONDITION

In this chapter we consider Cirsium wrightii’s historical distribution, its current distribution, and what the species needs for viability. We first review the historical information on the range and distribution of the species. We next review the conceptual needs of the species, including population resiliency, redundancy, and representation to support viability and reduce the likelihood of extinction. Finally, we consider the current conditions of Cirsium wrightii populations.

3.1. Historical Range and Distribution

Cirsium wrightii is a wetland thistle that occurs in wet meadows associated with alkaline springs and seeps (cienegas). Cirsium wrightii was historically known to occur in Arizona and New Mexico in the United States, and Chihuahua and Sonora in Mexico (Sivinski 2012, p. 2; Figure 3.1). The single location in Arizona was a historical 1851 collection from San Bernardino Cienega, which straddles the international border with Mexico, and no longer has suitable wetland habitat on the Arizona side of the line (Baker 2011, p. 7). Reports of Cirsium wrightii from Texas were common (Keil 2006, p. 131; Sivinski 1996a, pp. 2–4), but in subsequent examinations of Texas specimens purporting to be C. wrightii, the specimens were found to be C. texanum or other Cirsium species (75 FR 67928). David Keil mentions seeing a specimen of C. wrightii from Texas, but did not recall in which herbarium the specimen is located (Keil 2011 in Sivinski 2012, p. 2).

Although the few possible Mexican locations of C. wrightii have not been specifically studied, some of its United States populations are known to be extirpated or declining (Sivinski 2012, p. 2). The only known extant populations in the United States are in the New Mexican counties of Chaves, Eddy, Guadalupe, Otero and Socorro.

3.1.1. New Mexico— Today the species only has eight extant locations in New Mexico: Santa Rosa, Guadalupe County; Bitter Lake National Wildlife Refuge, Chaves County; Blue Spring, Eddy County; La Luz Canyon, Karr Canyon, Silver Springs, and Tularosa Creek, Otero County; and Alamosa Creek, Socorro County (Sivinski 2012, pp. 5-53). Historical localities from the City of Roswell Country Club, Chaves County, and Lake Valley in Sierra County are extirpated (NMRPTC 2009, p. 2; Sivinski 2005, p. 1; 2005a p. 4; 2009a, p. 2). Cirsium wrightii was collected at Lake Valley in the early 1900s, but a more recent attempt to find that population by Sivinski (2011, p. 40) was unsuccessful. A Cirsium species at Rattlesnake Springs, Eddy County, is thought to be a hybrid between C. wrightii and C. texanum (NMRPTC 2009, p. 2). This population blooms in May (typical of C. texanum) rather than the typical season of C. wrightii from August to October (NMRPTC 2009, p. 2).

Sivinski and Tonne (2011) identified 51 aridland springs and cienegas in southern New Mexico based on their potential for having significant wetland vegetation and conducted surveys at 21 locations, where access to public and private lands was granted. No new Cirsium wrightii locations were found during these botanical surveys (Sivinski and Tonne, 2011, entire). In addition, Worthington (2002) conducted surveys for C. wrightii at approximately 12 potential

14 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 habitat locations on the Lincoln National Forest. No new C. wrightii locations were found during these botanical surveys (Worthington, 2002, entire). Furthermore, Millford et al. (2000) surveyed 15 springs in the Roswell area (which differed from those surveyed by Sivinski and Tonne), where it was noted that one spring may contain C. wrightii; however, this observation has not been verified since. While these surveys do not represent an exhaustive look at the entire state of New Mexico, they do represent a survey of a significant portion of potential habitat. Although there may be other areas of suitable habitat that could be surveyed to determine the presence of C. wrightti, based on previous negative survey results, we assume that C. wrightii has a low probability of occurrence in suitable habitat; therefore, it is likely that there are few populations which have yet to be found. Thus, we can conclude that we have presented the best available information regarding historical distribution of the species. Therefore, the only known locations of C. wrightii in New Mexico include the eight extant locations and the two previously extirpated locations.

3.1.2. Arizona: San Bernardino Cienega— Charles Wright first collected C. wrightii at San Bernardino in 1851. The type locality at San Bernardino Cienega straddles the border of Arizona and Sonora, Mexico, but all of the wetland on the U.S. side has long ago been dried and destroyed, and recent searches of wet remnants on the Mexico side did not locate any thistles (Sivinski 2017b, pers. comm.). Radke (2016, pers. comm.) has looked for the plant at San Bernardino NWR each year since 2000, without finding any, but did note that some suitable wetland areas may be reestablishing in the area. The area was also surveyed in 2006 by The Nature Conservancy with no identifications (Sivinski 2006a, p. 1; 2009a, p. 1). Wetlands at the San Bernardino Ranch area have been degraded and there are no longer cienegas that once supported individuals of Cirsium wrightii (Baker 2011, p. 1). Drying of the adjacent natural cienega caused the local extinction of many plants and animals including Cirsium wrightii (Sivinski 2011, p. 35). Therefore, the species is likely extirpated from Arizona (ADGF 2001, p. 1; Sivinski 1996a, p. 4; 2009a, p. 1; Service 2009a, p. 1).

Baker (2011) conducted surveys for Cirsium wrightii at 47 springs and wetlands in Arizona, along with referencing a similar study conducted by Ledbetter in 2011 which surveys 56 springs (with no springs in common between the two studies). No C. wrightii locations were found during these botanical surveys. Therefore, the only known location of C. wrightii in Arizona is the historical population at San Bernardino NWR location, which is currently considered, extirpated and it is unlikely that additional plants will be located in suitable habitat in Arizona.

3.1.3. Texas—We found that Cirsium specimens from Texas have been confused because of the difficulty in distinguishing Cirsium wrightii and C. texanum from herbarium sheets due to the inability to distinguish growth forms (Sivinski 1994, p. 1; 1994a, p. 1; Sivinski 2006a, p. 1). All of the collections from herbariums and references identifying C. wrightii localities in Texas are in error (Coulter 1891, p. 244; Correll and Johnson 1970, p. 1719; Kearney and Peebles 1951, p. 952; Martin and Hutchins 1981, p. 2002; Sivinski 1994, p. 1; 1996, p. 5; Texas A&M University 1975, p. 89). Furthermore, the presumed location from Presidio, Texas, that we identified in the 90-day finding (74 FR 46544), is not C. wrightii, but most likely an undescribed species from northern Mexico (Poole 2010, p. 1).

15 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Poole (1992) evaluated 74 cienegas in Texas and conducted botanical surveys at 33 of the locations within the highest potential habitat (i.e., springs and wetlands) for Helianthus paradoxus, which has similar habitat requirements and sometimes overlaps with Cirsium wrightii. No C. wrightii locations were found during these botanical surveys (Poole 1992, entire). Similarly, we reviewed information from and contacted botanists who have surveyed the Diamond Y Preserve, Pecos County, Texas, owned by The Nature Conservancy. This preserve shares some of the same habitat characteristics, and many of the imperiled species, found on Bitter Lake NWR, including Assiminea pecos (Pecos assiminea), Gambusia nobilis (Pecos gambusia), and H. paradoxus (Service 2005, pp. 4, 8; 2007, p. 10; Poole 2010, p. 1). Diamond Y has been thoroughly surveyed, and it does not appear that C. wrightii occurs on the preserve. Because we do not have any verified historic collections or known extant populations from any locations in Texas (Poole 2010amei, p. 1; 2010a, p. 1), we conclude that C. wrightii has never been present within the State.

3.1.4. Mexico—We have not been able to obtain any recent observations or collections of Cirsium wrightii in Mexico. Three herbarium specimens were collected in Mexico. One specimen was collected in 1982 at Cerro Angostura Spring, Chihuahua, Mexico (Sivinski 2009a, p. 1, 2010; CONABIO 2010). There were two large springs feeding the large marsh, named Ojos de Arrey, that were likely the habitat of the Chihuahua population. However, the springs and marsh there have been dried out and were mostly destroyed by 2015 (Sivinski 2017b, pers. comm.; Lozano-Vilano et al. 2016, p. 13). Therefore, there is either very little or no remaining habitat suitable for C. wrightii at the former Cerro Angostura Spring.

The second collection from Los Azules, Chihuahua, in 1998, was misidentified and is not Cirsium wrightii. The third collection from Fronteras, Sonora, in 1890, was most likely from the Lumholtz Expedition and was collected by C.V. Hartman. Fronteras, Sonora is located in the Municipio of Fronteras along the Sonoran side of the international border and the plant’s original habitat has most likely been altered due to agricultural activities, irrigation canals, and a local reservoir located to the west (Bye 2017, pers. comm.) Given that the Fronteras collection was made over 125 years ago, and it has not been re-visited to search for C. wrightii, we conclude that we do not have sufficient evidence that C. wrightii currently exists in Sonora. In addition there is either very little or no remaining habitat suitable for C. wrightii at the Fronteras location.

No one has recently reported Cirsium wrightii in Mexico (Sivinski 2017b, pers. comm.; Sivinski 2017c, pers. comm.). Given the amount of habitat loss, and given that no observations or collections were made in the last 35 years, for purposes of this status assessment we are considering the Cerro Angostura Spring location to be currently extirpated. Given that the single collection from Fronteras was made in 1890 and the area has not been searched again for the presence of C. wrightii, we do not consider it to be present at this location either. Therefore, we presume C. wrightii to be extirpated in Mexico. More information will be available in 2018, as the Service has recently funded field work at historical locations to survey for this and other rare plant species.

16 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Figure 3.1. Cirsium wrightii rangewide map, highlighting differences between sizes of populations.

17 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 3.2. Current Range and Distribution

Cirsium wrightii currently occurs at eight locations in New Mexico; however, it has been extirpated from the previously known location in Arizona (Sivinski 1996a, pp. 1, 4, 9, 2006a, 2009a, p. 1; Worthington 2002a, p. 4), and was misidentified and likely not ever present in Texas (Poole 1992; 2010; Sivinski 1996a, p. 2). We presume the species to be extirpated in Mexico as well, since there have been no recent observations of the plant, and few verified historical collections of the plant. Numerous surveys of potential habitat, as explained in the historical range and distribution section, have been conducted over the years with few new localities documented (e.g., Poole 1992, 2010; Sivinski 1994, 1996, 2005, 2009a; Sivinski and Tonne 2011; Worthington 2002a). Sivinski and Tonne (2011) conducted a botanical evaluation of spring and cienega habitats within southern New Mexico, documenting flora found at 21 locations. No additional C. wrightii locations were discovered. Worthington (2002a) conducted surveys at 12 sites that contained suitable habitat in Karr Canyon, the Rio Penasco drainage, and in the vicinity of Sacramento Lake in the Sacramento Mountains on U.S. Forest Service (Forest Service) land in 2002. Moreover, he surveyed additional springs, but found most springs were capped or captured for municipal use by the City of Alamogordo (Worthington 2002a, p. 3). No new C. wrightii populations were found, although one possible new locality with plants that lacked the characteristic black tips and had different looking leaves was noted (Worthington 2002). However, the locality was not photographed, collected, or verified and the accuracy of its identification is unknown. In addition, Milford (2000) surveyed 15 springs in the Roswell area, where one spring was noted to possibly have C. wrightii; however, this has not been verified since then.

We are unaware of long-term data on population trends for Cirsium wrightii in New Mexico, but have estimates of relative abundance for most extant localities (see also Sivinski 1996a, 2005a, 2006a, 2009a). In 1996, Sivinski completed a status assessment of C. wrightii in New Mexico (Sivinski 1996a). He subsequently continued to survey and monitor C. wrightii localities (Sivinski 2010a, 2011, 2012), and completed an additional population assessment in 2012. Therefore, we base our current range and distribution assessments on the most recent comprehensive survey of the plant, Sivinski’s 2012 survey.

Cirsium wrightii occurs in some of the same New Mexican cienegas occupied by the federally threatened Helianthus paradoxus (Pecos sunflower). It also co-occurs with the candidate species Agalinis calicina (Leoncita false foxglove) at Bitter Lake NWR. Overall, C. wrightii has fewer populations and is less abundant than H. paradoxus (Sivinski 2011, pp. 27–28).

In New Mexico, there are eight general confirmed locations of Cirsium wrightii: Santa Rosa, in Guadalupe County; Bitter Lake NWR, in Chaves County; Blue Spring, in Eddy County; La Luz Canyon, Karr/Haynes Canyons, Silver Springs, and Tularosa Creek, in Otero County; and Alamosa Creek, in Socorro County (Bridge 2001, p. 1; Sivinski and Bleakly 2004, p. 2; NMRPTC 2009, p. 1; Sivinski 1994, p. 1; 1996, p. 2; 2005, p. 1; 2005a, pp. 3-5; 2009a; Service 1998, p. 1; Worthington 2002, p. 1; 2002a, pp. 1–3). In Otero County, the Sacramento Mountains have four distinct populations of C. wrightii clustered within about 10 miles (mi) (16 kilometers (km)) of each other on the west slope of the mountains. The remaining four localities are widely disjunct, separated from the Sacramento localities by about 75 to 140 mi (120 to 225

18 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 km) and from each other by about 75 to 215 mi (120 to 345 km). In the Sacramento Mountains, two of these four localities occur on the Lincoln National Forest, one locality is on private land and the remaining locality is on the Mescalero Apache Reservation. In the Pecos River Valley, one locality is on public lands on Bitter Lake NWR, one is on private land near the Blue Spring and the Black River, and one is in the vicinity of Santa Rosa on private, municipal, and State lands. The remaining locality is on private land on Alamosa Creek, Socorro County. Localities vary in relative population size from less than 20 individuals covering only about 0.03 ac (0.02 ha) at the Silver Springs locality (Sivinski 2012, p. 21), to several thousand individuals on Bitter Lake NWR covering almost 23 ac (9.3 ha).

We considered whether additional populations may have become established in other parts of New Mexico as a result of seed dispersal at any point in the past and which may still exist. Craddock and Huenneke (1997) studied water dispersal of Cirsium vinaceum (Sacramento Mountains thistle) seed, and determined that stream flow dispersal and occasional thistle establishment in streamside habitats were sufficient to genetically link some discrete patches of thistles. Craddock and Huenneke also mention finding thistle seed on the surface of snow during winter. Snow pack may provide large areas of smooth, unobstructed surface for wind transport of seed to adjacent thistle patches (Service 2008a, p. 13). However, even though Cirsium species have wind-dispersible seeds and have occasional long distance dispersal (Cain et al. 2000), seed dispersal via wind is likely to be only locally effective for C. wrightii. Its known populations are highly disjunct and are sometimes separated by more than 200 mi. (320 km) (Sivinski 1996, p. 2). Even if seeds could travel this far, there is likely a low probability of the seeds landing in another suitable alkali spring and starting a new population. Even though C. wrightii was not observed at Bitter Lake NWR during surveys in the 1980s (Peterson 2001, p. 3), Sivinski (2017e, pers. comm.) believes this is actually a remnant population that surveyors did not locate for a period of time. Also, Worthington searched potential habitat in Karr Canyon in 2002, but did not find the large Raven Road population along the main road in Karr Canyon until 2012, less than 1 mile from the known population (Roth 2017d, pers. comm.). So apparently some methods of seed dispersal can be effective in establishing new populations, if seeds should land in the right habitat. There is a possibility of other unknown, undiscovered populations either already present on the landscape (e.g., on private lands), or that have been established by wind-blown seed dispersal; however, given the searches, surveys, and monitoring done by species experts over a period of many years (Sivinski 1994, 1996, 2005, 2009a, 2010a, 2011, 2012; Sivinski and Tonne 2011; Worthington 2002a; Millford 2000), we think it likely that all extant populations are known.

3.2.1. New Mexico

3.2.1.1. Santa Rosa Wetlands—The City of Santa Rosa sits within much of the best remaining natural wetland habitat in New Mexico. The Santa Rosa area is a zone of karst topography (an area of erosive limestone), with numerous sinkhole lakes and artesian springs (ground water that is under pressure) within a 6-mi (9.7-km) diameter circular depression. Cirsium wrightii is scattered throughout the Santa Rosa sink wherever there are permanently soggy soils in the cienegas. Most patches of C. wrightii occur in the wettest cienegas on the east side of the Pecos River, where there are a few thousand thistles. One small patch of less than 100 C. wrightii is known on the west side in the cienega below Bass Lake Spring (Sivinski 2011, p. 65).

19 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 The localities of Cirsium wrightii are scattered within some of the marshes, spring seeps, and various sinkhole lakes, occurring over 4 square miles (mi2) (10 square kilometers (km2)) on State, private, and municipal lands (Sivinski 1996a, p. 4; Sivinski and Bleakly 2004, pp. 1, 3; Service 2010c, pp. 1–2). For example, the 116-ac (47-ha) Blue Hole Cienega locality, owned by the State of New Mexico, is part of the overall population and contains sparse occurrences (i.e., not continuous in distribution) of C. wrightii along a spring-fed creek and an adjacent seep (75 FR 67927; November 4, 2010). The other known localities in the area include El Rito Creek, private lands, ponds at a decommissioned fish hatchery, Bass Lake, and Perch Lake (a large sinkhole that is partially developed for fishing and picnicking) (75 FR 67927). Most of the municipal habitats are small and have been filled and developed for recreation. These localities support a few hundred C. wrightii, but the remaining localities are smaller, isolated occurrences (Sivinski 1996a, p. 6; 2010a, p. 1; Sivinski and Bleakly 2004, p. 3). Between 1995 and 2005, the overall Santa Rosa population was thought to be stable, estimated at several thousand plants (Sivinski 1996a, p. 4; 2005a, p. 3).

At the Santa Rosa population, a groundwater drainage ditch between the fill material and Blue Hole Road sidewalk had about 200 Cirsium wrightii (mature and juvenile) in 2012. Two of the original hatchery ponds are still maintained with water for public fishing, and had about 130 C. wrightii in a narrow linear strip along the eastern pond edges. Four lakes are sufficiently boggy in the bottoms to support a C. wrightii patch totaling about 1,900 individuals. Sivinski has been regularly observing these pond bottom C. wrightii patches since 1995 and noted that they are becoming drier, with less available C. wrightii habitat, and fewer observations of individual adult plants. The ponds are also becoming more covered with native cottonwood trees and nonnative trees, including Tamarix chinensis (salt cedar) and Elaeagnus angustifola (Russian olive); also, Saccharum ravennae (Ravenna grass) is a nonnative plant that has started to grow on the pond bottoms (Sivinski 2012, pp. 33–42).

Perch Lake Park is another recreation site owned by the City of Santa Rosa, but this water feature is a natural sink hole lake surrounded by marsh vegetation. Cirsium wrightii was scattered along the shoreline, but most dense at the southern end of the lake where water discharges into an adjacent cienega. There were about 650 C. wrightii (mature and juvenile) in 2012 at Perch Lake. Some habitat at the shoreline was impacted by mowing and park development. The wire fence at the southern end of the lake was down and the C. wrightii there were heavily grazed by livestock. Cirsium wrightii habitat area and numbers at Perch Lake have remained fairly constant since 1995; however, fewer C. wrightii matured into flowering individuals here because of livestock grazing (Sivinski 2012, pp. 33–42).

A property southwest of Perch Lake had two large unnamed springs that have C. wrightii habitat. The largest spring had created a small hill of carbonate deposit that was only wet at the top of the hill. This small wet area was so heavily grazed by livestock that only 1 of the 36 C. wrightii rosettes there in 2012 was able to make a short flowering stem. The north side of this spring hill has been trenched to capture the spring and divert the water (Figure 3.2). The natural hydrology of this large spring and the wetlands it supported has been completely altered (Sivinski 2012, pp. 33–42).

20 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 A second spring and spring run with C. wrightii in the southwest corner of city land extended into the adjacent private lands. A north-south pasture fence (near, but not on, the property boundary) separated the heavily grazed east side with stunted, non-reproductive C. wrightii from the less grazed west side with 60 healthy, flowering C. wrightii and 180 juvenile plants (Sivinski 2012, p. 43; Figure 3.2).

Another two large springs with C. wrightii habitat occurred on City of Santa Rosa property south of Highway 91 and near the Santa Rosa Ballpark. Both springs have created low hills of carbonate deposits. The spring south of the ballpark has also had its side torn out with a trench to divert spring flow into two excavated ditches. The damaged spring had a few scattered C. wrightii, but the adjacent marsh had a healthy population of about 360 C. wrightii that are protected from livestock. The very large natural spring habitat east of the ballpark was the only large spring in the area that had not been seriously impaired by trenching into irrigation ditches. Its flow was very broad across a wide natural marsh. This city pasture has been heavily grazed in some years, but was rested in 2012 and appeared better than usual, with about 150 mature C. wrightii and about 600 juvenile rosettes. Surprisingly, the small amount of this C. wrightii habitat within the Highway 91 right-of-way had a few dozen mature C. wrightii, but approximately 1,800 small juvenile rosettes that had apparently germinated during the summer of 2012. The New Mexico Department of Transportation has responsibility for the vegetation in this right-of-way. This roadside habitat has often been impacted by mowing and herbicide applications, which often leads to direct mortality of plants and decreased reproduction. Total area of C. wrightii habitat on City of Santa Rosa properties in 2012 was approximately 22 ac (9 ha), divided among 15 patches containing approximately 6,800 C. wrightii (Sivinski 2012, pp. 43–45).

Figure 3.2 Locations where Spring hill was trenched to capture the spring and direct the water off-site. Pasture fence pictured shows grazed Cirsium wrightii in foreground and flowering C. wrightii in background. Photo courtesy of Robert Sivinski, 2012.

21 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 The Blue Hole population at Santa Rosa has four patches of Cirsium wrightii. Sivinski has monitored the three northern C. wrightii patches since 1994, and found them to be relatively stable (Sivinski 2012, pp. 49–51). The full extent of the southern patch of C. wrightii was not measured until 2012. The spring run supported about 1,150 C. wrightii (mature and juvenile) in 2012. Elaeagnus angustifola and Baccharis salicina (seep willow) occur near the channel bank, but appear unable to occupy water saturated soils inhabited by C. wrightii. The other C. wrightii patches on the preserve occupy open cienegas on spring seeps. The spring run C. wrightii habitat was stable until 2008, when two beaver dams were constructed at the west end of the spring run. Water overflowed the banks of the channel and created a wider area of marsh where new C. wrightii germinated. The water rights owner removed the dams in 2011 and the spring run returned to its channel. Cirsium wrightii in the broader, drying habitat were blooming in 2012, but were not being replaced by new juvenile C. wrightii. Therefore, the spring run C. wrightii habitat will likely return to its somewhat smaller pre-2008 extent. The total area of habitat occupied by C. wrightii on Blue Hole Cienega Nature Preserve was about 8.2 ac (3.2 ha) in 2012. The total number of C. wrightii on the preserve in 2012 was approximately 2,800 (mature and juvenile) (Sivinski 2012, pp. 49–51). The total area and estimated population size of the combined patches in the Santa Rosa population is approximately 37.78 ac (15.69 ha) and 13,764 individuals.

3.2.1.2. Bitter Lake NWR—Bitter Lake National Wildlife Refuge is in the Pecos River valley of Chaves County, about 7.5 mi (12 km) east of Roswell. It is a significant part of the Roswell artesian basin, which exhibits numerous sink hole lakes, resurgent spring runs (springs that have run underground and then re-emerged at the surface of the ground), and spring cienegas in the gypsum strata of the region. A large population of Cirsium wrightii was found at Bitter Lake NWR in 1998 and is associated with cienegas (wet meadows) and marshes in Units 3, 5, and 6 of the refuge (Service 1998, p. 1; 2010, p. 1). Springs and seeps that wet the habitat emerge from west side of the valley and used to flow east, but the refuge has built a levee road with excavated drains on both sides that divert some of the flow to the south to the next dike. Cirsium wrightii grows along the channels on both sides of the road. Cirsium wrightii does not occupy areas of disturbance or the wet areas created by water impoundments on the refuge. Cirsium wrightii habitats on Bitter Lake NWR are natural and somewhat variable. Most of the areas occupied by C. wrightii are open cienega or boggy margins of open water or along the drains excavated. A few C. wrightii occur in Typha spp. stands, and many occur in fairly open stands of Phragmites australis. Surprisingly, several hundred C. wrightii rosettes were found well within some very dense, tall stands of P. australis in the 2012 survey. Almost all of these were juvenile rosettes (Sivinski 2012, pp. 29–33).

Today Bitter Lake has the largest known population of Cirsium wrightii (Sivinski 2011, p. 44). All known populations of C. wrightii on Bitter Lake NWR grow within designated critical habitat of Helianthus paradoxus (Service 2010a, p. 6). When C. wrightii was discovered on Bitter Lake NWR, the population was estimated between 1,680 and 2,130 flowering plants (Service 1998, p. 1; 1999, p. 25). Sivinski (2005a, p. 3) found there was no change in this population's distribution and abundance between 1999 and 2005. In 2009, the population was estimated to be thousands of individuals, the largest known population of C. wrightii (Sivinski 2009a, p. 2). There are two separate parts of the refuge with cienega habitats occupied by C. wrightii. There were an estimated 500 flowering C. wrightii and about the same number of

22 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 juvenile rosettes seen during the 2012 survey in Unit 5 of the refuge, and appeared to be similar in number to several previous visits by Sivinski since 1999. The C. wrightii population further south in Unit 6 is much more extensive and occupies similar cienega habitat. Some C. wrightii patches are small, with less than 50 individuals, while other larger patches have thousands, especially the southern end of Unit 6 (Sivinski 2012, pp. 29–33). Total C. wrightii number for the entire refuge in 2012 is estimated between 14,000 and 18,000 individuals. Total area of occupied habitat is approximately 22.6 ac (9.2 ha).

3.2.1.3. Blue Spring—The Blue Spring population occurs along the spring run below Blue Spring in Eddy County. A new population of Cirsium wrightii was discovered here in 2009 (Sivinski 2009a). Sivinski initially found a few hundred Cirsium wrightii on the travertine falls of the spring run near the confluence with the Black River. Cirsium wrightii were scattered and continuous up the spring run for at least 700 ft. (200 m). A few C. wrightii were also found at and below the head gate of an irrigation ditch. A total estimated habitat area of 39.7 ac (16.1 ha) is the maximum possible habitat occupied, and could likely be an over-estimation. The entire Cirsium wrightii habitat is below the irrigation point of diversion for the landowner’s farm fields (Sivinski 2012, pp. 24–27).

This population was estimated at several hundred to a few thousand plants and occupies about 1 mi (1.6 km) of riparian habitat (Sivinski 2009a, p. 1). Water flow at Blue Spring is generally perennial along the 2.5-mi (4-km) run that flows into the Black River (a tributary of the Pecos) near Black River Village, New Mexico (NMDGF 2007, p. 15). Blue Spring is a discrete, continuous spring run habitat. Therefore, the lower Blue Spring run is likely a single population with continuous gene flow (Sivinski 2012, p. 53).

3.2.1.4. Alamosa Springs— Alamosa Springs is a small continuous Cirsium wrightii habitat. Alamosa Springs is the only known surviving population of C. wrightii west of the Rio Grande in the United States; it is confined here to the hillside springs and edges of the spring runs (Sivinski 2011, p. 108). It differs from more eastern populations by plants with shorter stature (< 6 ft. (2 m) tall) and broadly paniculate with white to very pale pink flowers (Sivinski 2012, p. 9). The population was discovered by Sivinski in 2005 at Alamosa Springs, Socorro County, New Mexico (Sivinski 2005, p. 1). There were an estimated 500-1,000 flowering adults and rosettes confined to a small, spring-fed wetland within the Alamosa Creek Valley (a tributary of the Rio Grande), but none of the plants occurred along Alamosa Creek (Sivinski 2005, p. 1; 2010a, pp. 1–2). The remaining springs in the Alamosa Creek Valley are on private land and have not been surveyed. In 2012 there were 911 mature flowering plants and approximately four times as many juvenile rosettes for about 4,500 total plants. The area of occupied habitat is 2.4 ac (0.96 ha) (Sivinski 2012, p. 9).

3.2.1.5. Tularosa Creek—The Tularosa Creek, Otero County, population of Cirsium wrightii is a geographically distinct population which occurs on private land and the Mescalero Apache Reservation. The Tularosa Creek population was discovered by E.O. Wooton in 1899 and was still the largest population in Sacramento Mountains almost a century later (Sivinski 2012, p. 18). In 1995, this was the most extensive population in the Sacramento Mountains, but it has become drier and dominated by the plant Phragmites australis (common reed) since the 1995 survey (Sivinski 1996a, p. 3; 2009a, p. 2). This population has significantly declined since 1995,

23 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 from an estimated several thousand individual plants along 3.5 mi (5.6 km) of nearly continuous occupied marsh and wet meadows, to 4 mature plants in the 2012 survey along a much smaller stretch of habitat (Sivinski 2012, p. 21; 2017d, pers. comm.). This formerly large and extensive Cirsium wrightii population in the Tularosa Creek valley has been nearly extirpated in just 17 years (Sivinski 2012, pp. 18–21, 54).

3.2.1.6. Silver Springs Canyon—The small Silver Springs Canyon population of Cirsium wrightii occupies just 0.03 ac (0.01 ha) of a much larger wet meadow on Forest Service land, and was estimated at 16 mature plants in 2002 (Worthington 2002, p. 4; 2002a, p. 15). The population was observed in July 2010 and appears to be approximately the same size currently (Service 2010b, p. 1). The 2012 survey found 29 flowering individuals, with 3 to 4 times as many juvenile rosettes. The population remains small and is not expanding into adjacent wetland habitat. The mature individual C. wrightii in this population are consistently small (3 ft. (1 m) tall or less), with few branches and flower heads. Rosette leaves are likewise relatively small compared to those in lower elevation populations (Sivinski 2012, pp. 18–21). This population is growing within a seep and is adjacent to C. vinaceum (Worthington 2002, p. 4). The Silver Springs Canyon population is geographically isolated from the other three Sacramento Mountains populations. Based on results of a Forest Service survey conducted in 2017, this population currently has a total of 190 thistles (including rosettes and flowering plants), which suggests that the population is similar in size to previous years with a slight increase (Roemmich 2017b, pers. comm.).

3.2.1.7. La Luz Canyon—The small La Luz Canyon population of Cirsium wrightii that occurs within about 540 ft² (50 m²) of spring habitat on Forest Service lands was stable at an estimated 50 plants both in 1995 and 2005 (Sivinski 1996a, p. 3; 2005a, p. 4). However, an adjacent small population of 10 plants in the same general area on private land 3 mi (5.8 km) east of La Luz Canyon was extirpated between 1995 and 2005, most likely from a severe scouring flood and alteration of the spring hydrology that led to the drying of habitat (Sivinski 2005a, p. 4; 2009a, p. 2). The La Luz Canyon population is geographically isolated from the other three Sacramento Mountains populations.

Lower La Luz Canyon suffers from severe channel down-cutting, and the upper part is hydrologically altered by groundwater capture for local agriculture and municipal use in the nearby town of Alamogordo (Sivinski, 2012). One of the remaining natural springs in La Luz Canyon has a small population of Cirsium wrightii at 6,500 ft. (1,970 m) elevation. This small spring had 35 mature flowering C. wrightii and about twice as many juvenile rosettes in 2012. The 1995 assessment of this population estimated 50 mature plants and an equal number of rosettes (Sivinski 1996a) so there been no change in C. wrightii number at this location. The habitat is about 75 ft. (20 m) long and 7 to 10 ft. (2 to 3 m) wide for total area of about 0.06 ac (0.02 ha) (Sivinski 2012, pp. 17–18). Based on results of a Forest Service survey conducted in 2017, this population currently has a total of 59 thistles (including rosettes and flowering plants), which suggests that the population may be slightly declining (Roemmich 2017b, pers. comm.)

3.2.1.8. Karr/Haynes Canyons—Karr Canyon is a major tributary of Fresnal Canyon and extends into the West slope of the Sacramento Mountains south of the Town of High Rolls above Alamogordo in Otero County. The geologic substrate is the Yeso Formation, which has strata of

24 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 gypsum, limestone and silty sandstone. The springs and seeps that pass through this formation form hillside travertine deposits and alkaline wet meadows in the valley bottom. The east side of Karr Canyon Road is a hillside spring that contained approximately 50 mature Cirsium wrightii in 2012 (Sivinski 2012, pp. 9–13). The west side of the road is a marshy valley bottom with about 300 mature C. wrightii. A narrow strip of the valley bottom protected by a pasture fence has C. wrightii at this location. The other side of the pasture fence is grazed by livestock and devoid of C. wrightii. The total estimated area of the habitat on both sides of Karr Canyon Road is about 1.7 ac (0.7 ha). The C. wrightii population is similar in size to a survey in 1995 (Sivinski 2012, pp. 9–13). The 2005 estimate of a few dozen C. wrightii in the valley bottom part of this location increased to a few hundred within the same area in the 2012 survey. The hillside spring on Karr Canyon Road is a very diverse wetland plant community of Typha latifolia (cattail), Eleocharis rostellata, Schoenoplectus americanus (chairmaker’s bullrush), Juncus ensifolius (swordleaf rush), Lythrum californicum (California loosetrife), Triglochin maritima (seaside arrowgrass), Symphyotrichum lavae (smooth aster), Solidago lepida (western goldenrod), and two additional rare wetland plants: Aquilegia chaplinei (Chaplin’s yellow columbine) and Epipactis gigantea (stream orchid). Valley bottom habitats are less diverse and dominated by Typha latifolia and Eleocharis rostellata. Surrounding landscape is piñon-juniper woodland and Pinus ponderosa. (Sivinski 2012, pp. 9–13).

The southern end of Karr Canyon is bisected by Raven Road, and has a patch of C. wrightii discovered in 2012 by Dr. Richard Worthington of University of Texas El Paso. The south side of Raven Road has a population of about 500 mature (flowering) plants, and the north side of Raven Road has several dozen mature plants in a man-made spring run channel that ends in a farm pond. The habitat occupied by C. wrightii at the Raven Road location was estimated to be about 3 ac (1.2 ha). The Karr Canyon population of C. wrightii is currently the largest known population remaining in the Sacramento Mountains (Sivinski 2012, pp. 13–15).

The Haynes Canyon location for Cirsium wrightii is about 1 mi (1.5 km) northeast of the Karr Canyon population. The Haynes Canyon habitats for C. wrightii, discovered in 1995, have not been large and now are almost completely gone. The lower canyon population, near the confluence of Karr Canyon, has been extirpated for several years (Sivinski 2012, p. 15), and now the number of C. wrightii visible from the public road in the upper canyon location has decreased. The upper canyon location was assessed in 1995 as having less than 10 adult C. wrightii along a watercourse adjacent to Haynes Canyon Road at 7,190 ft. (2,180 m) elevation (Sivinski 2012, p. 15). This irrigation ditch was completely overgrown with tall vegetation and had no C. wrightii in 2012. A few meters east, however, the adjacent parcel had two mature C. wrightii on a small spring run in an otherwise well-manicured lawn of nonnative grass. These appeared to be the only two C. wrightii plants remaining in Haynes Canyon in 2012. The habitat is estimated to be about 270 ft² (5 m²) (Sivinski 2012, p. 15).

Occupied habitat patches in Karr and Haynes Canyons can be considered one population, because they are close to one another in one valley bottom and may be connected by a tributary.

25 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 3.2.2. New Mexico Survey Areas and Counts

The area and survey counts for each extant New Mexico population are shown below in Table 3.2. Note that we are going to use acres as the unit for habitat quantity in this table and in the successive table rankings that follow.

Table 3.2. New Mexico Cirsium wrightii population information from 2012 surveys, including land ownership, habitat area, number of patches, and number of mature plants and rosettes (Sivinski 2012). The dark line separates the Eastern (top) from the Western (bottom) populations. Number Number of Population Land Ownership Area Number of Patches of Mature Rosettes Plants City of Santa Rosa, Santa Rosa Basin State of New 38.78 ac 21 2,242 11,522 Mexico, and Private 11,041 Bitter Lake NWR USFWS 22.63 ac 11 4,872

Blue Spring Private 39.7 ac * 1** ~300 no estimate Alamosa Springs Private 2.37 ac 1 911 3600 Mescalero Apache Tularosa Creek .07 ac 1 4 no estimate Tribe Lincoln National Silver Springs .03 ac 1 29 100 Forest Lincoln National La Luz Canyon .06 ac 1 35 70 Forest No complete estimate (50 at one Karr/Haynes Private 4.69 ac 5 932 patch, but no Canyons estimates for other 4 patches) The dark line separates the eastern (Pecos River) populations from the western populations. Note that the western populations are comprised of a single spring, whereas the eastern populations are spring complexes. * This is the maximum possible habitat that could be occupied and may be an overestimate. **Assumes the population is continuous along the lower half of the spring run. 26 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 3.2.3. Areas Presumed Extirpated

3.2.3.1. Roswell—Cirsium wrightii historically occurred in North Spring, at the Roswell Country Club, Roswell, New Mexico (Sivinski 1996a, p. 4). However, the population has been extirpated following the enclosure of North Spring with bricks and cement and loss of all vegetation, including C. wrightii (Sivinski 1996a, p. 4; NMDGF 2005, p. 18). Sivinski surveyed most of the springs in the vicinity of Roswell in 1995 looking for C. wrightii populations (Sivinski 1996a, p. 4). All but one spring had been capped and diverted for domestic water, and no extant or new populations were found (Sivinski 1996a, p. 4).

3.2.3.2. Lake Valley—A population of Cirsium wrightii was historically located within Lake Valley, Sierra County, New Mexico, but is considered extirpated (Sivinski 2005). This site was historically a series of marshes and cienegas. The area was diked, channeled, and drained in the early 1900s and converted to row-crop agriculture (Sivinski 2005, p. 1). There is no longer suitable habitat for C. wrightii within the valley (Sivinski 2005, p. 1).

3.2.3.3. San Bernardino Cienega—This single location in Arizona is identified from a historical 1851 collection from San Bernardino Cienega, which straddles the international border with Mexico. According to recent observations, this area no longer has suitable wetland habitat on the Arizona side of the line and does not have any C. wrightii observations (Baker 2011, entire). Radke (2016, pers. comm.) noted that some suitable wetland areas may be reestablishing in the area, however this does not correspond to the presence of C wrightii at this location. .

3.2.3.4. Fronteras, Mexico—As noted above, the collection from Fronteras, Sonora, was made in 1890 by C.V. Hartman as part of the Lumholtz Expedition; however, no recent surveys have been done (Bye 2017, pers. comm.). As the habitat has been altered by agricultural activities and irrigation, we are making the assumption that this locality does not currently have any Cirsium wrightii.

3.2.3.5. Cerro Angostura Spring—As noted above, one specimen was collected in 1982 at Cerro Angostura Spring, Chihuahua, Mexico (Sivinski 2009a, p. 1, 2010; CONABIO 2010). There were two large springs feeding a large marsh, called Ojos de Arrey, that were likely the habitat of the Chihuahua population. The springs and marsh there have been dried out and mostly destroyed since 2015 (Sivinski 2017b, pers. comm.; Lozano-Vilano et al. 2016, p. 13). No-one has reported seeing Cirsium wrightii there since; therefore, we presume this locality has been extirpated.

3.2.4. Summary

In summary, there are eight general localities of Cirsium wrightii extant within New Mexico. Additional historical populations have been extirpated, including at least two populations in New Mexico and two populations in Mexico. There are no known extant populations in Arizona. The population at Bitter Lake NWR is likely the most robust, with several thousand individuals on 22.6 acres (ac.). Santa Rosa contains mostly sparsely scattered localities (21 patches; Sivinski 2012, p. 33) throughout four sections of land. Habitats in the Santa Rosa Basin have been severely damaged and diminished by urban development, spring capture for irrigation, and

27 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 livestock grazing (Sivinski 2012, p. 53). The population along Tularosa Creek has undergone a significant reduction since 1995. The remaining populations in the Sacramento Mountains are all small, containing from 15 to perhaps several hundred individuals. The populations at Blue Spring and Alamosa Springs were recently discovered, and there have been no subsequent surveys to see if the populations have increased, decreased, or stayed the same, and from which we might infer any trends. The collections from Texas were misidentified, and we conclude C. wrightii never occurred in Texas. Finally, there are two verified historic collections from Mexico, and recent information on the status of the species from these populations suggests they remain extirpated.

3.3. Needs of Cirsium wrightii

As discussed in Chapter 1, for the purpose of this assessment, we define viability as the ability of the species to sustain populations in the wild over time. In the case of Cirsium wrightii, we are evaluating viability projections to 10 years, 25 years, and 50 years. Using the SSA framework, we describe the species’ viability by characterizing the status of the species in terms of its resiliency, redundancy, and representation. Using various time frames and the current and projected levels of resiliency, redundancy, and representation, we thereby describe the species’ level of viability over time.

3.3.1. Population Resiliency

For Cirsium wrightii to maintain viability, its populations or some portion thereof must be able to withstand stochastic disturbance. Resource needs that influence the resiliency of populations include constant soil saturation, alkaline soils, abundance of insect pollinators, and availability of direct sunlight. Additionally, secondary resource needs include agents of seed dispersal (wind, water, mammals, and birds), and water availability for seed germination. Factors which influence those resource needs will determine whether C. wrightii populations are able to obtain adequate numbers within habitat patches of adequate area and quality to maintain survival and reproductions in spite of disturbance, thereby increasing the resiliency of populations. These factors and habitat elements are discussed below and shown in Figure 3.3.

We will define, for all populations, what is considered a high, moderate, and low condition for each factor. The values presented for high condition are based on what level of each factor needs to be obtained in order for the population to be highly resilient to stochastic events, with a low level of risk of extirpation. For most factors, the values presented for moderate condition are determined based on a range of approximately 50-99% of the high condition value. The values presented for low condition are determined based on a range of approximately 0-49% of the high condition value. For example, if the high condition is over 5,000 individuals, moderate condition would be from 2,500-4,999 individuals and low condition would be below 2,500 individuals.

Population Factors

Habitat Quantity—One of the most important factors that has the potential to limit Cirsium wrightii populations is the availability and quantity of suitable habitat. Cirsium wrightii is associated with alkaline springs and seeps. The availability of these types of habitats is limited

28 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 to very small patches associated with seeps, springs, and cienegas within the range of the species. While there is no specific research on the percentage of suitable habitat which is occupied by the species, it can be reasonably assumed from survey data that the species occupies a fairly small percentage of suitable habitat. Given the sparsity of the species’ habitat on the landscape and the presumed low occupancy of suitable habitat, habitat quantity for existing populations is vital to species resiliency. Larger occupied habitats will contribute to the species’ ability to withstand stochastic events by providing critical resource needs such as sufficient quantity of alkaline soils with adequate levels of soil saturation.

The five western populations in mountainous terrain occur around one spring each (except for Karr/Haynes Canyons, with one stream run each). As noted by Sivinski (2017d, pers. comm.), spring cienegas are naturally small and habitats such that more than 10 acres occupied by C. wrightii would be considered an exceptional condition for a single spring It is unlikely that any of the western populations will reach a higher habitat quantity than this, representing an inherent limitation in their population resiliency. On the other hand, each of the three eastern populations are comprised of aggregates of multiple springs (at least three springs), with patches of plants around each that are close enough to have gene flow between them. As the habitat conditions and spatial configuration of the eastern populations represent higher resiliency, we based our high condition on the potential of these populations. Thus, we consider an area greater than 50 acres as the standard for high condition. To reflect natural breaks within the typical areas represented by populations, we considered 20 to 50 acres to be moderate condition. Finally, we considered less than 20 acres to be low condition.

Abundance—In order to have a stable, ongoing population, it is necessary to have at least a certain number of plants at all life stages in that population, including seeds in a seed bank, seedlings, rosettes, and mature plants. We are using the number of mature plants as the overall indicator of abundance for Cirsium wrightii populations. We consider a population abundance of 1,000 plants at a single isolated spring to be exceptional. Historically, the largest populations found in previous surveys numbered in the thousands. The largest current extant population (Bitter Lake NWR) has a population size approaching 5,000 mature plants, and has persisted at about this level; thus, we consider this to be an optimal population size for a high resiliency population. Therefore, we consider a population with over 5,000 mature plants to be in high condition. We consider a population between 2,500 and 5,000 to be in moderate condition. Finally, we consider a population less than 2,500 to be in low condition.

Reproduction—For plants such as Cirsium wrightii, reproductive success dictates that mature plants must produce a large number of viable seeds, and that these seeds have the right conditions for germination, and that seedlings have the necessary habitat elements to allow them to grow and mature into the successive life stages. If there is a large number of rosettes relative to the number of adult plants at a given locality, it would follow that mature plants are setting and producing an abundant number of seeds, that there is an adequate, viable seed bank, that conditions exist such that germination is effective, and that the habitat needs of the rosettes are being provided. A high production of rosettes may temporarily deplete the seed bank, but with the large amount of seeds produced by mature plants, it is likely that any periodic depletion of seed bank will be short term and replenished. However, if a patch was grazed during the time of

29 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 bolting or flowering over two or more consecutive years, this could negatively impact the seed bank.

Therefore, we are using the ratio of rosettes to mature plants as an indicator of reproductive potential of a given population. It is typical to have 5 to 20 times more C. wrightii rosettes than flowering plants (Sivinski 2009a. p. 2). Our largest extant populations have a ratio of between 3:1 and 5:1 rosettes to mature plants. Therefore, we consider a ratio of 5 or more rosettes per mature plant to be high condition. We consider a ratio of 2 to 4 rosettes per mature plant to be in moderate condition and a ratio of less than 2 rosettes per mature plant to be in low condition.

Patches—When evaluating the acres used to determine habitat quantity, we utilized the sum of all occupied areas, rather than a metric to represent suitable habitat. Therefore, a population which has a habitat quantity of 30 acres may have one contiguous 30 acre area which is occupied or 3 separate 10 acre patches which are occupied. The spatial distribution of occupied areas can play a role in the population’s ability to withstand stochastic events. For example, 10 separate 1 acre patches may demonstrate greater resiliency in the face of a flooding event than 1 contiguous 10 acre area (i.e., 5 out of 10 of those 1 acre patches may persist through the flooding event and maintain some level of population resiliency, while the entire contiguous 10 acre area may be demolished which could lead to a complete loss of population resiliency). In order to capture the importance of spatial distribution across the landscape to population resiliency, we examined the number of patches present within each separate population. Since we are not designating a minimum size for a patch for each population, we chose to use the same number of patches to represent high, medium, and low condition for both eastern and western populations. The largest current population consists of over 10 patches and has persisted for several years with the same relative spatial distribution. Therefore, we consider a population with more than 10 patches to be in high condition. A population with between 5 and 10 patches would be considered moderate condition, and a population with less than 5 patches would be considered low condition.

Habitat Elements that Influence Resiliency

Permanent Root Saturation—Water availability is a requirement for three stages of the Cirsium wrightii life cycle: seedlings, rosettes, and mature plants. Habitat with optimal or high conditions should include seeps, springs, cienegas, and streams spreading water normally both above and below ground. Moderate habitat conditions also have seeps, springs, and cienegas; however streams are constrained by some drying, dewatering, levees, trenches, or dikes. Habitats in low condition have seeps, springs, cienegas, and streams that are drying or being actively dewatered or diverted. In areas that are extirpated the seeps, springs, cienegas, and streams have dried or been dewatered or diverted, with no wetland habitat remaining.

Full Sun—Direct sunlight is necessary for development of rosettes into mature plants. The amount of sunlight available is related to the presence of a natural fire regime on the landscape, which helps reduce overgrowth and competition from shading by other plants. Such fires are particularly efficacious when they occur during the post-flowering, dormant phase of Cirsium wrightii. Areas with optimal or high conditions with respect to sunlight exposure will have no obstructions of sunlight during most life stages of Cirsium wrightii.

30 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Cirsium wrightii Life History Native Insect Flowering Plant Availability Density

Mature

plants Presence of Pollination Bees, Butterflies Dormant Competition Season Fire

Permanent Root Springs, Seeps, Cienegas, Streams Saturation Direct Key Sunlight Rosettes Alkaline Soil Seeds Life stages Wind, Water Processes Dispersal Rodents, Resource Needs Birds Seedlings Germination

Factors Affecting Resource Needs and Processes Moisture

Figure 3.3. Cirsium wrightii population ecology, including life stages, the resource needs and process that affect those life stages, and the factors which affect the resources needs and processes. .Arrows from center blue box indicate that each life stage with an arrow requires all three resource needs.

31 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 3.3.2. Species Representation

Maintaining representation in the form of genetic or environmental diversity is important to maintain Cirsium wrightii’s capacity to adapt to future environmental changes. An abundance of insect pollinators, particularly bees and butterflies, leads to genetic diversity by the process of cross pollination between patches within a population, and between the separate patches within the Santa Rosa population. The differences in flower color (and perhaps differences in mature plant maximum growth height) represent differences in ecological adaptability between the eastern and western populations of C. wrightii, which may also represent a form of genetic diversity. There is a need to maintain the genetic and environmental diversity between the eastern and western groups as their potential genetic and life history attributes may buffer the species’ response to environmental changes over time. Cirsium wrightii has likely lost genetic and environmental diversity as populations have been reduced or extirpated. As such, maintaining the remaining representation in the form of genetic and environmental diversity may be important to the capacity of Cirsium wrightii to adapt to future environmental change.

3.3.3 Species Redundancy

Cirsium wrightii needs to have multiple resilient populations distributed throughout its range to provide for redundancy. The more populations, and the wider the distribution of those populations, the more redundancy the species will exhibit. In addition, populations of C. wrightii can exhibit internal redundancy through the presence of multiple patches within the population. For example, the eastern populations of C. wrightii have multiple patches, while the western populations typically have only one patch. The presence of multiple patches contributes to the ability of the population to maintain resiliency when faced with various risk factors. Redundancy reduces the risk that a large portion of the species’ range will be negatively affected by a catastrophic natural or anthropogenic event at a given point in time. Species that are well- distributed across their historical range are considered less susceptible to extinction and more likely to be viable than species confined to a small portion of their range (Carroll et al. 2010, entire; Redford et al. 2011, entire). Historically, C. wrightii populations were likely more numerous and extended into Arizona and Mexico, but the loss of many wet cienega habitats due to development, dewatering, water diversion, drought, and climate change has likely greatly reduced the number and area of suitable habitats for the plant. Of the remaining, currently known populations, which represent a reduction from the historical range of the species, two are considered large populations occupying moderately sized habitat (Bitter Lake NWR and Santa Rosa Basin, both eastern populations/form). The western populations are all much smaller in habitat area (most are single springs) and in mature plant numbers present. All populations are fairly isolated from one another, and it is unknown if any gene flow occurs between the eight population.

3.4 Current Conditions

The best available information indicates that Cirsium wrightii is currently restricted to eight localities in New Mexico. We believe the plant has been extirpated in Arizona, Mexico, and two locations in New Mexico, and never occurred in Texas.

32 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 3.4.1. Current Population Resiliency

Methodology

To summarize the overall current resiliency of Cirsium wrightii populations, we ranked each of the population factors and habitat elements discussed above into three condition categories (high, moderate, and low) based on the five population factors and habitat elements discussed above (Tables 3.1 and 3.2) (see section 3.3.1. Population Resiliency). Table 3.3 defines the rankings for each habitat and population element. We also included in the table areas that are (or are presumed to be) extirpated to show the entire current condition of the species. The overall current condition is a qualitative estimate based on the analysis of the four population factors and two habitat elements. We gave a numerical value of 3 to each high ranking, 2 to each moderate ranking, 1 to each low ranking, and 0 if the factor was missing (e.g., no suitable habitat, no root saturation, etc.). We then did a simple averaging of the six population factors to arrive at the overall condition of each of the populations. We considered an average score of 2.5 or greater to be high overall condition, 1.5–2.5 to be moderate overall, 0.5–1.5 low overall, and 0.0–0.5 very low condition. If the average came out in the middle between two rankings (numerically, 0.5, 1.5, or 2.5), we used habitat quantity as a tiebreaker, because of the high importance of this habitat factor. If no suitable habitat remains, then we consider the plant to be extirpated at the locality, regardless of presence or absence of other factors.

Based on this ranking system, it is possible for a population with a low condition for habitat quantity to receive moderate to high rankings for all other population factors, leading to a moderate to high overall condition. However, based on the importance of habitat quantity to determining overall population resiliency, this population would have lower resiliency than a population with a moderate habitat quantity. To incorporate the great importance of habitat quantity in our ranking system, the current condition will not be allowed to exceed the condition category for habitat quantity. For example, if a population ranks out with an overall current condition of moderate with a low ranking for habitat quantity, the current condition for that population would be adjusted to low. Finally, it is necessary to address the differences in specific habitat conditions between eastern (aggregate springs) and western (isolated, single springs) populations. With habitat quantity creating a cap to the current condition for populations, it is possible to have several populations with a wide range of numerical values for habitat quantity (1-20 acres) all receive a low rank for current condition. However, there is a significant difference in population resiliency between a low condition population with 19 acres and a low condition population with 1 acre of habitat quantity. Therefore, we chose to use a numerical cut-off for habitat quantity, to establish a very low condition category. Thus, a population with less than 1 acre of habitat quantity would receive a final current condition of very low. Populations with greater than 1 acre but less than 20 acres of habitat quantity would maintain a final current condition of low. The current conditions at the population localities are summarized below in Table 3.4.

Next, we considered how the overall condition of a population would translate into likelihood of persistence over time. This is a measure of confidence based on expert judgement, rather than a numerical analysis, to calibrate what we mean by high, moderate, and low condition. We expect a population in high overall condition to have a greater than 90 percent likelihood of persistence

33 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 over the foreseeable future (in other words a 10 percent or less likelihood of extirpation. For a population in moderate condition, we estimate that the likelihood of persistence over the foreseeable future would be approximately 66 to 90 percent (10 to 33 percent likelihood of extirpation). For a population in low condition, we assumed a likelihood of persistence of approximately 25 to 66 percent over the foreseeable future (33 to 75 percent likelihood of extirpation) and a population in very low condition to have a likelihood of persistence of approximately 0 to 25 percent over the foreseeable future (77 to 100 percent likelihood of extirpation). This is summarized in Table 3.5, below.

Table 3.5. Presumed likelihood of persistence for each condition category. The values assigned are based on expert judgement and represent a qualitative measure designed to calibrate what is meant by high, moderate, and low condition. Likelihood of High Moderate Low Very Low Persistence: Range of Presumed Likelihood of 90 – 100% 66 – 90% 25 – 66% 0-25% Persistence over time

Range of Presumed Likelihood of 0 – 10% 10 – 33% 33 – 75% 75-100% Extirpation over time

Overall, of the eight extant populations in New Mexico, three are in moderate condition, two are in low condition, and three are in very low condition and at risk of extirpation. Of the populations which have the greatest habitat area, Santa Rosa Basin and Bitter Lake NWR have the largest populations of Cirsium wrightii. However, Blue Spring also has a large habitat area, but only a few mature plants were estimated to be present, and rosettes were not estimated in Sivinski’s 2010 survey. Unlike the other population counts and estimates, the estimate of mature plants was made from an aerial map of Blue Spring, and it was not possible to estimate the number of rosettes. The eastern populations exist in spring complexes, whereas most of the western populations are located by single springs, and therefore have a much smaller habitat area in comparison. Alamosa Springs and Karr/Haynes Canyons have habitat quantity of a few acres, with moderate populations, but Tularosa Creek, Silver Springs, and La Luz Canyon each have a habitat quantity of less than a tenth of an acre, with very few plants present.

34 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Table 3.3. The six population and habitat characteristics used to create the condition categories in Table 3.4. Descriptions are provided for each factor as to how this relates to high, moderate, and low condition categories. Population Factors Habitat Factors Condition Habitat Permanent Root Abundance Number of Patches Reproduction Full Sun Category Quantity Saturation Seeps, springs, 5 or more times the cienegas, streams No obstructions >50 ac High >5,000 mature individuals >10 number of rosettes to spreading water during any life

mature plants normally above and stage below ground Seeps, springs, cienegas, streams 2-4times the number 20-50 ac 2,500-4,999 mature constrained by Patchy shade 75% Moderate 5-10 of rosettes to mature individuals some drying, full sun plants dewatering, levees, trenches, or dikes Seeps, springs, <2 times the number cienegas, streams Full sun obscured <20 ac Low <2,500 mature individuals <5 of rosettes to mature are drying or being by vegetation

individuals actively dewatered 50% or more or diverted Seeps, springs, cienegas, streams None Population is Extirpated None remaining None have dried or been Full shade remaining presumed extirpated dewatered or diverted

35 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Table 3.4. Current population resiliency for each population as it relates to descriptions of condition categories described in Table 3.3 The dark line separates the Eastern (top) and Western (bottom) populations. Population Factors Habitat Factors Overall Condition Estimated Permanent Average Habitat Number of Final Current Population Occupied Abundance Reproduction Root Full Sun Current Quantity Patches Condition Habitat Saturation Condition Santa Rosa Basin 38.78 ac Moderate High Low High Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Bitter Lake 22.63 ac Moderate High Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate NWR Roswell Country Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated High Extirpated Extirpated Club

Blue Spring 39.7 ac Low Low Low* Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Alamosa Springs 2.37 ac Low Low Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Low

Tularosa Creek .07 ac Low Low Low Low* Low High Low Very Low

Silver Springs .03 ac Low Low Low Moderate High Moderate Moderate Very Low

La Luz Canyon .06 ac Low Low Low Moderate Low Moderate Low Very Low Karr/Haynes 4.69 ac Low Moderate Low Moderate** Low Moderate Low Low Canyons Lake Valley Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Ø High Extirpated Extirpated San Bernardino Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Low High Extirpated Extirpated Cienega, AZ Fronteras, MX Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Ø High Extirpated Extirpated Cerro Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Ø High Extirpated Extirpated Angostura, MX *Assumption of Low Reproduction made at Blue Spring and Tularosa Creek based on low abundance of mature plants and no rosettes reported in survey. **Assumption of Moderate Reproduction made at Karr/Haynes Canyons based on moderate abundance of mature plants in survey.

36 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 3.4.2. Current Species Representation

We consider Cirsium wrightii to have representation in the form of genetic and environmental diversity resulting in two distinct phenotypes in the western and eastern populations, as described above. The Pecos River Valley representation (eastern) plants have pink flowers and dark green foliage, and the more western and southern populations in New Mexico have white or pale pink flowers and pale green foliage (Sivinski 2011, pp. 27–28). The presumed extirpated populations in Arizona and Mexico were likely of the western phenotype, and are included as such in our population maps.

3.4.3. Current Species Redundancy

Within the two representation areas (east and west), there are three populations extant in the east, and these have the largest habitat quantities. The five extant populations in the western representation are much smaller in both habitat quantity and population size. So while there is a greater redundancy solely in terms of number of populations in the western phenotype, the eastern is likely more stable and possibly more resistant to stochastic impacts due to the larger habitat areas, greater number of springs supporting populations, higher populations numbers, and the fairly large distance between each of the three eastern populations (approximately 100 mi (160 km) from one population to the next), as shown in Figure 3.4.

37 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Figure 3.4. Map shows the current resiliency, redundancy, and representation of Cirsium wright based on information presented in Table 3.3 and 3.5.

38 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 CHAPTER 4 –INFLUENCES ON VIABILITY In this chapter, we evaluate the past, current, and future influences that are affecting what the Cirsium wrightii needs for Note: This chapter long term viability. Current and potential future effects, along contains summaries of with current expected distribution and abundance, determine the risks, including any present viability and, therefore, vulnerability to extinction. We differential (concentrated organized these influences around the stressors (i.e., changes in or unique) risks at the resources needed by C. wrightii) and discuss the sources of individual populations. those stressors. Those risks that are not known to have effects on C. wrightii populations, such as overutilization for commercial and scientific purposes and disease, are not discussed in this SSA report.

4.1 Decreased Water Availability

Southwestern riparian and aquatic systems fluctuate due to seasonal and longer term drought and wet periods, floods, and fire. For example, naturally occurring water loss from changes in precipitation patterns have affected the volume of water flow at numerous springs in the Sacramento Mountains (Forest Service 2003, p. 43). Furthermore, during the dry conditions from 1994 to 1996, many seeps and springs in the Sacramento Mountains ceased flowing and were completely dry (Sivinski 2006b, p. 12). Cirsium wrightii is found in association with seeps, springs, marshes, and wetlands that have saturated soils with surface or subsurface water flow (NMRPTC 2009; Sivinski 1996a, pp. 2–7; Service 1998, p. 2; Worthington 2002a, p. 2). These types of habitats tend to have fluctuating water levels which create circumstances that may cause C. wrightii population sizes to vary over time.

The drying of C. wrightii habitat has led to reductions of population boundaries, a reduction in the numbers of plants, and, in some cases, a loss of all individuals at several localities (Sivinski 2005a, pp. 3–4). Since the species occurs only in areas that are water-saturated, populations have a high potential for extirpation when the habitat dries up. Loss of water from C. wrightii habitat occurs through changing precipitation patterns, drought, or as a result of human impacts from groundwater pumping (withdrawal) or diversion of surface water; which can lead to the degradation and extirpation of C. wrightii habitat (Sivinski 1996a, p. 5; 2005, p. 1; Forest Service 2008, p. 19). In addition to experiencing periods of drought, much of the habitat of Cirsium wrightii has been and continues to be severely altered and degraded because of past and present land and water management practices which have led to ground and surface water depletion. All of the extant localities may be affected by long-term drought, whereas four of the largest localities at Blue Spring, Bitter Lake NWR, Santa Rosa, and Alamosa Creek have the potential to be further modified by ongoing and future water management practices. Drought, along with ground and surface water depletion, serve to decrease the amount of water available in C. wrightii habitat, which impacts the species’ need for permanent root saturation. In addition, the effects of climate change are assumed to exacerbate these effects and further impact the species. 4.1.1. Drought

According to the United States Drought Monitor (2017), large portions (over 30%) of New Mexico, including Cirsium wrightii habitat, experienced drought from around April 2011 until mid-2014. Within New Mexico, monsoonal summer precipitation can be very patchy, with some

39 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 areas receiving considerably less rainfall than others. The three eastern populations of Cirsium wrightii in the Pecos River valley have not been affected as much by drought as the western populations, because the Pecos River valley marshy habitats are maintained by large regional aquifers. On the other hand, the western populations often rely on wet periods during summer months to recharge the ground water. In the Sacramento Mountains, these are extremely rare events (Newton et al. 2009). As such, drought has impacted the recharge of ground water tables throughout the Sacramento Mountains (Forest Service 2008, p. 22). For this reason, the seasonal distribution of yearly precipitation can result in temporary drought conditions and reduced water availability for some Cirsium wrightii localities within this mountain range.

The National Weather Service Forecast Office and the U.S. Drought Monitor for New Mexico indicate that the Sacramento Mountains experienced a severe to extreme drought from 2003 to 2008 (Forest Service 2008, p. 22). This led to unusually low stream or spring flows and, in some instances, no flow (e.g., see South Central Mountain 2002, p. 12; Shomaker 2006, p. 8; Gardner and Thompson 2008, p. 2; Newton et al. 2009; Sivinski 2005a, pp. 3–4, Forest Service 2003, pp. 53–54). Thus, some of the springs and wet-valley habitats in the Sacramento Mountains have become drier and have had a rapid change in vegetation. Specifically, the relatively dry conditions in Tularosa, La Luz and Haynes Canyons, have resulted in altered vegetation. Cattail marshes observed in 1995 were subsequently converted to dense stands of common reed by 2005. It is uncertain whether this habitat will recover to be suitable C. wrightii habitats during wetter times (Sivinski 2005a, p. 5).

Furthermore, in 1995 and 2005, Sivinski (2005a, pp. 3–4) monitored the relative size of Cirsium wrightii localities rangewide to document the relationship between water availability in suitable habitat and numbers and extent of plants. He found that, when some localities dried, the localities were either extirpated or much reduced in size (Sivinski 2005a, pp. 3–4). Moreover, drying of occupied habitat also resulted in Typha latifolia being replaced by dense stands of Phragmites australis (Sivinski 2005a, pp. 3–4), which may outcompete native vegetation, including C. wrightii, and also significantly increases the threat of wildfire.

4.1.2. Ground and Surface Water Depletion

Cirsium wrightii is a wetland plant that is susceptible to extirpation by the drying of its habitat. The effects of ongoing and past maintenance and operation of existing water diversions can also limit the size of C. wrightii populations (Corps 2007, p. 29). Sivinski (1994, pp. 1–2; 1996, p. 4; 2005, p. 1; 2006, p. 4) reported loss or degradation of habitat from water diversion or draining of wetlands that historically supported C. wrightii in Chaves, Otero, and Sierra Counties, New Mexico. Thus, habitat loss due to ground and surface water depletion is a stressor to C. wrightii.

Santa Rosa Basin—The Santa Rosa wetlands are in danger of eventually disappearing as many acres of cienega habitat have been diverted, as well as, plowed and planted with nonnative grasses for livestock pasture. According to the New Mexico State Lands Office (2017), within a 10 mi- radius (16 km) of this population, there are approximately a dozen agricultural leases for grazing encompassing around 28,000 ac (11,000 ha) of land. In addition, according to the New Mexico Office of the State Engineer (2017), there are approximately 60 water points of diversion within 10 mi² (26 km²) of this population which have been issued for either agricultural or cattle grazing purposes. This active filling of wetlands has led to the loss of Cirsium wrightii plants at 40 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 this location in subsequent years (75 FR 67928). El Rito Creek, along with adjacent cienegas, springs, and sinkhole lakes, are being developed by the town and other private interests for scuba diving, swimming, fishing, field sports and other recreational activities. Much of the private cienega habitats have been severely grazed by livestock for many years. Despite these impacts, a great amount of wetland plant diversity and several acres of natural cienega remain in this area (Sivinski and Bleakly 2004, p.1).

Bitter Lake NWR—At Bitter Lake NWR, Beauchamp (2016, pers. comm.) noted that the principle factors affecting Cirsium wrightii at the refuge are the potential for continued decrease in water availability and potential impacts to water quality. Surface water flow on Bitter Lake NWR has been diminished by groundwater pumping, as evidenced by the dead springs on Salt Creek and documented reduction in spring flows on the refuge (Jones and Balleau 1996; p. 12). Aerial photos which show a larger, meandering channel for Bitter Creek are also evidence that discharge from Bitter Creek was once greater (Service 2005a; 70 FR 46312, August 9, 2005). The New Mexico State Lands Office (2017) shows a mosaic of oil and gas leases, along with agricultural leases, within a 10 mi- radius (16 km) of this population. These leases encompass a majority of the landscape to the east of Bitter Lake NWR. In addition, according to the New Mexico Office of the State Engineer (2017), there are over 1,600 water points of diversion within 10 mi² (26 km²) of this population which have been issued for either agricultural or cattle grazing purposes. Irrigation well metering in the Roswell artesian basin has the potential to mitigate potential impacts to spring flow, except possibly during unusually severe regional drought (NMDGF 2005). However, a large unnamed spring and cienega on Oasis Dairy, south of the refuge, was recently pumped dry. This spring was designated critical habitat for the threatened Helianthus paradoxus, but drawn down by irrigation withdrawal for nearby agriculture, which dried the spring and nearly extirpated a very large H. paradoxus population (Sivinski and Tonne 2011, pp. 52–54). Additionally, Bitter Lake NWR actively lowers the water levels in wetlands during spring and summer (Service 2006, p. 2).

It is unknown how Cirsium wrightii responds to these changing water levels on the refuge, but if soils are not continuously saturated throughout the growing season, the species is likely impacted. Information from other localities suggests that populations likely contract or habitat may become invaded by Phragmites australis as water is withdrawn and parts of the occupied wetlands dry (e.g., Sivinski 2005a, pp. 3–4). At Bitter Lake NWR, it appears that maturation and flowering of C. wrightii is suppressed by the shade in dense patches of Phragmites australis. Potential impacts to Cirsium wrightii are mostly related to operations of the refuge and diminution of the regional aquifer by agricultural use and long-term drought.

Roswell Country Club—The Cirsium wrightii population on City of Roswell lands has been extirpated at this location since the habitat is no longer suitable for the plant (NMDGF 2005, pp. 33–34; Sivinski 1996a, pp. 4–5; 2006a, p. 5). Loss of springs and surface water flow in streams resulting from human use and drought have occurred throughout the Roswell Artesian Basin in New Mexico, often resulting in diminished discharge from springs or complete loss of surface water (Taylor 1983, 1987; NMDGF 2005, p. 17; Jones and Balleau 1996, pp. 4, 12). Many of these spring systems could have harbored populations of C. wrightii; however, it is not possible to determine the extent of the loss of C. wrightii populations because many springs went dry before surveys could be conducted. Groundwater use combined with normal periods of drought

41 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 is still a very real threat to springs and spring biota in the Roswell artesian basin (Sivinski 2012, pp. 29–33).

Blue Spring—Surface diversions, primarily for irrigation, and groundwater pumping for domestic and commercial uses also occurs at the Blue Spring locality (NMDGF 2007, p. 22; Lusk 2008). The New Mexico State Lands Office (2017) reports almost 20 agricultural leases within a 10 mi-radius (16 km) of this population, encompassing around 45,000 ac (18,000 ha) of land. In addition, the New Mexico Office of the State Engineer (2017) reports approximately 600 water points of diversion for irrigation, domestic, and commercial purposes. At Blue Spring, agricultural interests along the Black River may see the dense vegetation along the spring run as an impediment to the spring flow that provides irrigation water to the river, and may one day wish to build a conveyance ditch for the spring run. The uplands surrounding Blue Spring are actively being explored and developed for oil and gas production, with at least 20 oil and gas leases being reported within 10 miles of the population, which could potentially affect the water quality or quantity of the spring (Sivinski 2012, pp. 24–27; New Mexico State Lands Office, 2017).

Blue Springs, along with Rattlesnake Springs, is responsible for sustaining flow in the Black River, which is generally perennial in the reaches around these springs (NMDGF 2007, p. 15). Discharge at Blue Spring has varied over the past 100 years: in 1907, it was recorded at 15.2 ft³/s (0.430 m³/s), with a minimum of 14.65 ft³/s (0.415 cms) (Bjorklund and Motts 1959, pp. 251, 263); from 1952 to 1956, discharge varied from 8.5 to 14 ft³/s (0.24 to 0.40 m³/s), with a mean of 12 ft³/s (0.34 m³/s) (Bjorklund and Motts 1959, p. 268); and from 2002 to 2006, the mean was 11.75 ft³/s (0.333 m³/s), with a range from 6.8 to 23 ft³/s (0.19 to 0.65 m³/s) (NMDGF 2007, p.15). Bjorklund and Motts (1959, pp. 247, 263) first reported that water levels within the Black River Valley (including Blue Spring) decline during the late summer and during droughts, mostly from heavy groundwater pumping and lack of aquifer recharge. Based on flows recorded in more recent years (2000–2006) at Blue Springs and in the Black River above the Carlsbad Irrigation District diversion, more surface water is appropriated than is available in the system (R. Turner, New Mexico Office of the State Engineer, pers. comm., April 2007; cited in NMDGF 2007, p. 25). This constitutes a significant stressor to this locality.

Alamosa Springs—Any activity that would interrupt the flow of water from Alamosa Creek has the potential to impact C. wrightii. According to the New Mexico State Lands Office (2017), within a 10 mi- radius (16 km) of this population, there are approximately a dozen agricultural leases for grazing encompassing around 15,000 ac (6,000 ha) of land. In addition, according to the New Mexico Office of the State Engineer (2017), there are approximately 93 water points of diversion within a 10 mi-radius (16 km) of this population which have been issued for either agricultural or cattle grazing purposes. As of 2008, irrigation and domestic use from about 50 farms did not appear to have reduced the baseflow of about 9 ft³/s (0.3 m³/s) from this spring-fed system (Sierra Soil and Water Conservation Service 2008, p. 2). However, Alamosa Creek would likely be negatively affected by long-term drought, which could exacerbate the effects of any ground or surface water diversions. In his 2012 Survey, Sivinski (p. 9) noted that the habitat had been slightly disturbed by digging in order to improve spring flow.

42 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Tularosa Creek—The alluvial marshes and spring cienegas along Tularosa Creek are very extensive and extend for approximately four miles along the valley bottom. While there are approximately a dozen water points of diversion downstream of the Tularosa Creek population, the water upstream of the population belongs to the Mescalero Apaches who are unlikely to sell their water rights and transport the water to off-reservation urban and agricultural areas (New Mexico State Lands Office, 2017). The marshes and wet meadows in the valley bottom have clearly become drier. The initially dominant Typha latifolia-Salix exigua wetlands have become stands of Phragmites australis and denser S. exigua, while Typha has become rare or absent throughout the valley. Definite causes for this diminution of ground water in the Tularosa valley are not obvious (Sivinski 2012, pp. 18–21).

Silver Springs—In the Sacramento Mountains, Cirsium wrightii populations have been and will continue to be altered and potentially degraded by the issuance of a special use permit to maintain and operate water withdrawal from Forest Service lands (Forest Service 2008, p. 26). Increasing demands from water rights owners will likely dewater C. wrightii localities, constituting a significant stressor to the species in this area for the foreseeable future.

La Luz Canyon—The marshes, springs, and seeps within La Luz Canyon of the Sacramento Mountains are currently and were likely historically diverted or drained for irrigation and agricultural use (Sivinski 1996a, p. 5). Many springs and streams in the Sacramento Mountains that were perennial during the 1900s have become intermittent or have dried completely, including La Luz Creek (Abercrombie 2003, p. 3). In this area, loss of water flow from human activities related to roads, trails, and the capture of spring water for municipal use have also been observed to affect the threatened species Cirsium vinaceum (Forest Service 2003, pp. 42–43). The same likely holds true for C. wrightii, although it has not been specifically investigated. The severe decline in available surface and ground water since the 1990s is due largely to drought and human use (e.g., Shomaker 2006, pp. 8, 20, 26).

The Cirsium wrightii population in La Luz Canyon is within the municipal supply watershed, where pipelines divert water to the City of Alamogordo (Shomaker 2006, pp. 20, 26; Forest Service 2008, p. 21). The number of water wells drilled on both private and National Forest System lands within this area has increased since the 1950s, with the 1980s and 1990s being the most active years for drilling of domestic use wells (Forest Service 2008, p. 22). The total permitted groundwater extraction is approximately 2,400 acre feet per year (300 hectare-meters per year) (98,000,000 gallons per year) (370,000,000 liters per year) from nearly 300 wells (Forest Service 2008, p. 22). The New Mexico Office of the State Engineer (2017) reports approximately 2000 water points of diversion within a 10 mi-radius (16 km) of this population which have been issued for a variety of uses including domestic, irrigation, and municipal uses. In 2002, the New Mexico State Engineer declared the La Luz Canyon watershed as a Critical Management Area, which means no new groundwater appropriations would be allowed for nondomestic purposes (Forest Service 2008, p. 22). However, for domestic purposes, the demand for water use through surface diversion and ground water withdrawals is expected to increase as a result of the population increase. The human population in Alamogordo, Otero County, New Mexico, increased from about 30,000 to 36,000 from 1995 to 2000, and is expected to increase to about 56,000 by 2040 (South Central Mountain 2002, p. 11). An increasing human

43 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 population and its associated agricultural and economic activities will require additional water from this relatively dry region.

Between 2005 and 2045, the City of Alamogordo’s water demand is expected to increase from 7,140 acre-feet per year to 10,842 acre-feet per year (881 hectare-meters per year to 1337 hectare-meters per year) (Shomaker 2006, pp. 43–44). By 2045, the City of Alamogordo will likely have a projected deficit of 6,258 acre-feet per year (772 hectare-meters per year) (more than 2 billion gallons per year) (more than 8 billion liters per year) (Shomaker 2006, p. 44). Withdrawal and diversion of water from wells located on Forest Service and private lands would continue to increase for the foreseeable future and compound the effects of drought, leading to increased degradation of wetland and riparian habitat (Forest Service 2008, p. 23), which contain Cirsium wrightii localities

Karr/Haynes Canyon—In the Sacramento Mountains, Cirsium wrightii populations have been and will continue to be altered and potentially degraded by the issuance of a special use permit to maintain and operate water withdrawal from Forest Service lands (Forest Service 2008, p. 26). Increasing demands from water rights owners will likely dewater C. wrightii localities, constituting a significant stressor to the species in this area for the foreseeable future.

Lake Valley—Increased water extraction in the last 100 years has contributed to the dramatic decline of most surface spring systems in the Chihuahuan Desert (see Corps 2006, p. 4; Karges 2003 and references therein). A historical population of Cirsium wrightii in Lake Valley, Sierra County, New Mexico, was extirpated when the wetlands were drained and converted to agricultural use (Sivinski 2005, p. 1; 2006a, p. 1).

Summary—The alteration and loss of habitat that currently supports Cirsium wrightii, due to groundwater and surface water depletion, will continue and likely increase in the foreseeable future. Long-term drought, in combination with ground and surface water withdrawal, pose a current and future threat to C. wrightii and its habitat. In addition, we expect that these threats will likely intensify in the foreseeable future.

4.1.3. Climate Change

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that warming of the climate system is unequivocal based on observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level (2007a, p. 5). For the next two decades, a warming of about 0.4 degrees Fahrenheit (°F) (0.2 degrees Celsius (°C)) per decade is projected (IPCC 2007a, p. 12). Temperature projections for the following years increasingly depend on specific emission scenarios (IPCC 2007a, p. 13). Various emissions scenarios suggest that average global temperatures are expected to increase by between 1.1 °F and 7.2 °F (0.6 °C and 4.0 °C) by the end of the 21st century, with the greatest warming expected over land (IPCC 2007a, p. 13). Warming in western mountains is projected to cause decreased snowpack, more winter flooding, and reduced summer flows (exacerbating competition for over-allocated water resources), and decreases in soil moisture with increases in agricultural drought (IPCC 2007b, p. 14; IPCC 2013, p. 5).

44 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 The IPCC reports that it is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation and flooding will increase in frequency (IPCC 2007b, p. 18). The projected drought in the late 21st century over the Southwest will likely exceed even the most severe historical drought periods in both high and moderate future emissions scenarios, representing an unprecedented fundamental change in climate. Future droughts will occur in a significantly warmer world with higher temperatures than recent historical events, conditions that are likely to be a major added stress on natural ecosystems. Further, recent years have witnessed the widespread depletion of nonrenewable groundwater reservoirs. Combined with the likelihood of a much drier future and increased human demand for water, the loss of groundwater and higher temperatures will likely exacerbate the impacts of future droughts, presenting a major adaptation challenge for ecological water needs in the southwest (Cook et al. 2015, p. 7).

High elevation streams in the western United States depend on heavy snowpacks during the winter months to contribute to peak discharges that occur during the spring and summer. Lower elevation streams have peak discharges which are dependent on a combination of snowmelt and rain. Smith and Finch (2017, p.41) state that climatologists predict that increased temperatures and reduced snowpack will decrease the amount of snowmelt runoff that enters streams, and that greenhouse warming will force monsoons to occur later in the year and with greater intensity. In addition, droughts will continue to occur, with increasing severity. Southwestern streams will see greater changes in peak discharge date, with these discharges occurring earlier and with lower magnitude. This reduction in peak discharge rate can reduce recharge rates of local aquifers which help maintain the connection between roots of plants and the groundwater table, thereby ensuring survival. These changes will limit germination and increase mortality of species dependent upon this groundwater connection, and benefit more generalist nonnative species (Smith and Finch 2017, p.12). In addition, areas in the western United States have been shown to demonstrate increases in evapotranspiration which occurs earlier in the year as a result of earlier snowmelt and earlier emergence of snow-free ground (Hamlet et. al. 2007, p.1476 ; Hobbins et. al. 2001, p.113-115 ). This shift towards earlier snowmelt as a result of increasing temperatures contributes to earlier spring soil moisture recharge from this input of snowmelt, with later soil moisture recharge contributed mostly to precipitation trends (Hamlet et. al. 2007, p.1479-1483). For example, in Guadalupe County, the area will experience projected increases in evapotranspiration during each month of the year, with some of the largest changes occurring from April through June (Figure 4.3). As Cirsium wrightii requires permanent root saturation, these alterations due to climate change will most likely affect the timing of germination by this species and could negatively impact survival.

Because C. wrightii occupies relatively small areas of spring or seep habitat in an arid region plagued by drought and ongoing aquifer withdrawals (e.g., in the Roswell Basin), it may be vulnerable to climatic changes that could decrease the availability of water to suitable habitat. Sivinski (2005a, pp. 3–4) reports that springs and wet valleys have been affected by drought in at least three canyons of the Sacramento Mountains, New Mexico, resulting in reduced C. wrightii population sizes. Similar water loss may occur within other Cirsium wrightii localities. If climate change leads to future drought, additional dewatering and reduction of C. wrightii habitat may occur. Based on climate change projections, all locations where C. wrightii is currently located show increases in mean daily maximum temperature over the next 50 years by approximately 3 °F (2 °C). For example, in Chaves County, mean daily maximum temperature

45 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 is expected to rise from approximately 76.5 °F in 2010 to approximately 80.5 °F in 2060 (Figure 4.1). While mean daily precipitation is not expected to vary drastically over the next 50 years, the variability in precipitation throughout the year will increase. For example, in Otero County, mean daily average precipitation under climate projections will depart from observed values by decreasing during certain times of the year, while increasing during other times of the year. In addition, the timing of maximum precipitation events may occur during different months than historical observations (Figure 4.2). This variability in precipitation will contribute to more periods of extreme drought and severe flooding events which may impact the availability of water during times critical to life history traits of C. wrightii (U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit, 2017). These projected increases in temperature and increased variability in precipitation in locations where C. wrightii is currently located demonstrate the vulnerability of C. wrightii habitats to the effects of climate change. The vulnerability of C. wrightii habitats to a drying climate depends, in large part, on the sources of their water supply. The sources of water to C. wrightii habitats are precipitation, surface water, and groundwater. Habitats that are sustained mainly by precipitation are the most likely to be affected in a drying climate. Alternatively, localities that are supplied primarily by groundwater will likely have the greatest resistance to climate change due to water stored in aquifers (e.g., see Poff et al. 2002, pp. 18–19).

In summary, we consider climate change to be a potential exacerbating factor, worsening the impacts of other known stressors. These stressors include habitat degradation from prolonged periods of drought and increased temperature, and the allocation of water for use by the human population and agriculture as well as a number of potential confounding effects. This exacerbating effect will impact the overall resiliency of C. wrightii populations.

46 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017

Mean Daily Maximum Temperature- Chaves County, New Mexico

F) ° (

- Maximum Maximum Temperature Mean Daily Mean Daily Mean Daily Average Precipitation- Otero County, New Mexico

- Figure 4.1. Projected change in mean daily maximumPoint temperature 3 for Chaves County, New Mexico. The blue lines and blue coloration represent projections under a low emissions scenario, while the red lines and red coloration represent projections under a high emissions scenario. (From U.S. Climate Average Resilience Toolkit, 2017.) Point 1 Point 2 Mean Daily Mean Daily Precipitation (in/day) Precipitation

Figure 4.2. Projected mean daily average precipitation for Otero County, New Mexico. The black line represents historical observations (1940-2005). Point 1 shows an area where projected precipitation is greater than historical observations. Point 2 shows an area where projected precipitation is less than historical observations. Point 3 shows an area where the timing of projected peak precipitation has changed from historical observations. (From U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit, 2017.)

47 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Mean Monthly Potential Evapotranspiration- Guadalupe County, New Mexico

y Potential Evapotranspiration (millimeters) Evapotranspiration Potential y Mean Monthl

Figure 4.3. Projected mean monthly potential evapotranspiration for Guadalupe County, New Mexico. Each color bar graph represents a different time step with the reference condition of year 2000 represented by a red line. (From U.S.G.S. Water Balance Model Futures Portal, 2017.)

4.2. Ungulate Grazing

In the semi-arid southwestern United States, wet marshes and other habitat of C. wrightii attract ungulates (e.g., livestock, elk, and deer) because of the availability of water and high quality forage (e.g., see Hendrickson and Minckley 1984, p. 134). Dry periods likely increase the effects of livestock trampling and herbivory on C. wrightii when other water and forage plants are not available (75 FR 30761). Grazing may be more concentrated within habitats similar to those occupied by C. wrightii during drought years, when livestock are prone to congregate in

48 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 wetland habitats or where forage production is greater than in adjacent dry uplands (e.g., see Forest Service 2003; see Figures 4.4 and 4.5). Livestock may trample individual plants and eat C. wrightii when other green forage is scarce, and when the seedlings or rosettes are developing and abundant. Further, livestock may eat mature plant inflorescences, which could reduce seed production. A similar listed thistle also found in New Mexico, C. vinaceum, is eaten by livestock and appears to be the preferred forage at some times of the year. It may provide some of the only green forage during droughts (NMRPTC 2006, p. 2). We believe the observations of livestock and elk herbivory and trampling that directly affect C. vinaceum and its habitat likely are also occurring in some of the C. wrightii localities. Also, it is possible that deer, elk, and livestock grazing within and adjacent to spring ecosystems could alter or remove habitat or limit the distribution of Cirsium wrightii.

Figure 4.4. The browsed flowering stem on the left side of the plant as the result of livestock grazing (from USAC 2007, p. 28).

Grazing impacts some localities of Cirsium wrightii more than others. The localities in the Sacramento Mountains, Santa Rosa, Blue Spring, and Alamosa Springs, have the potential to be subjected to trampling and herbivory (75 FR 30762; NMDGF 2000, p. 2, 2004, p. 7, 2005, p. 47; Corps 2007, p. 25; Service 1994, p. 6, 2005c, p. 2). In the Sacramento Mountains, springs and marshes provide a majority of the watering sites for both livestock and wildlife species, especially elk (75 FR 30762). These wet springs and marshes are subject to trampling and hoof damage, and receive especially heavy use during drought periods, when neither water nor green forage are readily available elsewhere. Trampling could easily result in damage to seedlings, rosettes, and flowering stalks, thereby preventing reproduction by affected plants. However, for the past 20 years there has been no cattle grazing at the Silver Springs locality (Roemmich 2017, pers. comm.), although this does not mean that grazing could not occur in the future. Small population size may exacerbate the effects of grazing, should grazing occur. With almost a dozen agricultural leases in the area, encompassing nearly 28,000 ac (11,000 ha), many acres of marsh habitats at Santa Rosa have been plowed and converted to Festuca pratensis (meadow

49 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 fescue) pasture for livestock grazing, with about three quarters of Cirsium wrightii being grazed at one locality near Santa Rosa (Service 2005, p. 10; Corps 2007, p. 25; Corps 2007, p. 25). Additionally, much of the private wet meadows and marsh habitats in the Santa Rosa area have been severely degraded by livestock grazing for many years (Sivinski and Bleakly 2004). Except for Blue Hole Cienega, we are not aware of any fences enclosing these localities that would limit impacts to the species. Near the Blue Springs population, there are almost 20 agricultural leases for cattle grazing within a 10 mi-radius (16 km) of this population, encompassing around 45,000 ac (18,000 ha) of land (New Mexico State Lands office, 2017). Despite the approximately dozen agricultural leases for grazing encompassing around 15,000 ac (6,000 ha) of land, Sivinski (2012, p. 9) did not find evidence of grazing at Alamosa Springs.

Effects of grazing on C. wrightii depend on timing: winter grazing (after seed dispersal and before seedling growth in spring) probably has a low effect on survival and reproduction, though there could be some trampling of rosettes. On the other hand, spring and early summer grazing probably reduces growth, survival, and reproduction. Late summer/early fall grazing is most severe, because it prevents reproduction. Finally, if a patch of Cirsium wrightii was heavily grazed during the time of bolting or flowering over two or more consecutive years; this could negatively impact the seed bank, and reduce the long term population in the affected patch. In summary, livestock activities may be a widespread stressor at the current time; localized impacts have been observed and there may be a high potential for effects to populations. Increased use of wet springs and marshes by livestock during drought conditions constitutes a significant stressor in the foreseeable future (Figure 4.5).

Figure 4.5. Differences between grazed (left) and ungrazed (right) Cirsium wrightii patches. Photo courtesy of Robert Sivinski, 2012.

50 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 4.3. Native and Nonnative Plants

4.3.1 Competition

The following native and nonnative terrestrial plant species have the potential to affect Cirsium wrightii at most localities: Phragmites australis, Lythrum salicaria (purple loosestrife), Elaeagnus angustifolia, Tamarix ssp., and Salsola spp. (Sivinski 1996, p. 6). These plants present unique challenges and potential threats to the habitat of C. wrightii, including shade effects on C. wrightii seedlings and rosettes, and possible changes in soil alkalinity resulting from Tamarix ssp. altering soil chemistry. However, most of the nonnative plants cannot tolerate the continuously saturated substrates that are typical in C. wrightii habitats, which may minimize competition effects.

There are three different genetic lineages of Phragmites australis. Flora Neomexicana (Allred and Ivey 2012) recognizes 3 subspecies of P. australis. Subspecies americanus is considered native to New Mexico and found throughout the State. Subspecies australis is considered exotic, and is also found throughout the State. Subspecies berlandieri is infrequent in the southern parts of the State, and may be native to New Mexico (Hazleton 2017, pers. comm.). The three subspecies are very difficult to tell apart morphologically, but the nonnative genotype is more aggressive, tends to make vast monocultures in wet areas, and has expanded into parts of the country where Phragmites didn't historically occur (Palmquist 2017, pers. comm.). Sivinski (2017e, pers. comm.) stated that the nonnative European genotype (P. australis australis) has not been found in Cirsium wrightii habitats. Regardless of which subspecies is present at the 8 extant C. wrightii localities in New Mexico, P. australis is acting as a stressor on C. wrightii and is being actively managed in several locations, though expanding further into others.

Sivinski (1996, p. 6) reports that Tamarix spp. and Elaeagnus angustifolia are becoming dominant in many riparian and wetland areas, but these species likely do not directly threaten Cirsium wrightii because C. wrightii grows in saturated substrates that are not suitable habitat for these nonnative trees. However, they do invade wetlands when the area dries (e.g., due to severe drought or groundwater pumping or diversion) and, once they become established, can survive in wet habitats when the moisture returns (Sivinski 2007, p. 2). Tamarix spp. may impact spring habitats primarily through the amount of water it consumes, and from the chemical composition of the leaves it drops on the ground and into the springs. Tamarix ssp. leaves add salt to the soil through its leaf litter (the leaves contain salt glands) (Di Tomaso 1998). Because Tamarix ssp. grow along the edge of water courses, it is possible that this could affect the soil chemistry of areas inhabited by C. wrightii. However, no research has been conducted specifically on the effect of Tamarix ssp. or E. angustifolia on C. wrightii.

At Bitter Lake NWR, Cirsium wrightii occurs in actively managed wetlands. Moist soil management techniques are currently being utilized where C. wrightii occurs and those wetland prescriptions will continue. On the refuge, C. wrightii typically occurs in areas with Scirpus spp, (bulrush), Eleocharis rostellata (beaked spikerush), and Distichlis spicata (saltgrass), but tends to get crowded out by cattails and Phragmites. Habitat restoration (e.g., removing phragmites and cattails) near the occupied range of C. wrightii is currently being planned. Although C. wrightii appears to be a more wetland

51 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 obligate species than the federally threatened Helianthus paradoxus (Pecos sunflower), which also occurs the refuge and is being actively managed, the current moist soil management techniques are beneficial to both species by providing a mix of soil moisture conditions (Beauchamp 2016, pers. comm.).

4.3.2. Increased Wildfire Threat

In the early 1900s, due to fine fuel reduction as a result of heavy livestock grazing, combined with aggressive suppression efforts, fire ceased to be a driving factor in the ecosystem. Fires were either entirely excluded from the landscape or their frequency greatly diminished (Service 1999, p. 5). Cirsium wrightii is dependent on fire to maintain its habitat (Service 1999, p. 6). At Bitter Lake NWR, fall or winter burning is typically planned for sites where C. wrightii occurs. Flowering plants set seed and die prior to October; thus, some seed will likely be consumed in a fire event. However, a reduction of litter and suppression of strongly competitive perennial plants may enhance thistle germination and seedling survival (as is the case for Helianthus paradoxus) (Service 1999, p. 9). Fall fire would also probably damage individual rosettes, which remain green late into the year or all winter. However, Sivinski doubted that fire would kill all rosettes (Service 1999, p. 24). Rather, he suggested that it may delay flowering to a later year. If fire suppresses strongly competitive perennial plants, any fire damage to rosettes may be compensated by damage to its competitors. In 1999, Unit 5 on the Refuge had been burned in the last five years. This unit had 600-800 flowering plants, which may suggest a neutral or positive fire effect. Covering rosettes with a shallow level of water during a burn may allow most litter to be consumed without harming rosettes (Service 1999, pp. 25–26). In more recent years, C. wrightii responded very favorably to spring prescribed burns in wetland areas, which presumably reduced competition with other plants, including nonnative plants (Radke 2016, pers. comm.).

However, some introduced plants increase the potential for Cirsium wrightii habitat loss due to wildfire and competition. Phragmites australis has expanded into half of the known C. wrightii localities (Bitter Lake NWR, Tularosa Creek, Santa Rosa, and Karr Canyon), forming dense stands and becoming a dominant plant in areas and increasing fuel load and threat of wildfire (Sivinski 2005a, pp. 3–4; Sivinski and Bleakly 2004, p. 5). Standing dead canes of P. australis and associated litter often constitute twice as much biomass as living shoots (Forest Service 2010). The high productivity and density of P. australis stands provide fuel loads that are often high. This abundant dead fuel carries fire well, allowing stands to burn even when the current year’s shoots are green (Forest Service 2010). As an example, on March 5, 2000, the Sandhill fire burned 1,000 ac (405 ha) of the western portion of the Bitter Lake NWR, including portions of Bitter Creek. The fire burned through Dragonfly Spring, eliminating the vegetation shading the spring. Although C. wrightii does not occur immediately within the burned area, the changes to wetland vegetation show how its habitat might respond following wildfire. The pre-fire dominant vegetation of submerged aquatic plants and mixed native grasses within the burned area has been replaced by P. australis (NMDGF 2005, p. 19–21). Prior to the wildfire, small patches of P. australis occurred throughout Bitter Creek, whereas post-fire, P. australis colonized the burned area to form a continuous dense stand (NMDGF 2005, pp. 19–21). The controlled burns implemented on Bitter Lake NWR are generally designed to burn grasses, Carex spp. (sedge), Typha spp., and nonnative vegetation (e.g., Salsola spp. (Russian thistle and

52 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 tumbleweed)), in an attempt to reduce the risk of large uncontrolled wildfires by removing excessive amounts of Salsola spp. and P. australis (Service 2006). This may temporarily reduce the threat of wildfire in one area of Bitter Lake NWR, but repeated prescribed burns are likely needed to continually suppress P. australis growth (Service 2006, pp. 4–5). No measures are being implemented in the other localities to reduce P. australis. Moreover, temperatures from prescribed burns are rarely high enough to be lethal to P. australis or to penetrate deeply into the wet or moist soils common in their habitat (Forest Service 2010 and references therein). Prescribed fire burns above-ground parts of P. australis, but below-ground rhizomes usually survive and produce plants later in the growing season or in subsequent years (Forest Service 2010 and references therein). Rarely is P. australis abundance decreased by a single occurrence of fire, and post-fire recovery is typically rapid, repeated controlled burns (such as yearly) may be effective. As such, prescribed fire, unless repeated, will likely do little to reduce the long- term effects of P. australis on Cirsium wrightii.

4.3.3. Summary of Native and Nonnative Plant Stressors

In addition to increasing the potential for wildfire, Phragmites australis is increasing in density at some locations in New Mexico. This is probably happening as the result of local changes in hydrology that favor P. australis over other wetland species (Sivinski 2017e, pers. comm.). Originally it was thought that P. australis could quickly invade a site and take over a wetland, crowding out native plants and changing hydrology (Plant Conservation Alliance 2005, p. 1). But it may in fact be that changing hydrology is leading to an increase of P. australis (Sivinski 2017e, pers. comm.) Regardless of the cause of increase in P. australis, the dense plant growth blocks sunlight to other plants growing in the immediate area and occupies all available habitat (Plant Conservation Alliance 2005, p. 1). For example, two Cirsium wrightii localities were significantly reduced in size (Karr Canyon and Tularosa Creek) concurrent with an expansion of P. australis (Sivinski 1996a, p. 2, 2005a, p. 4; 2009a, p. 2).

In summary, the increase of Phragmites australis in Cirsium wrightii habitat is a current stressor for C. wrightii localities through increased fire risk, competition, and changes in hydrology, especially when habitat is disturbed through burning or drying.

4.4. Oil and Gas Development and Mining

Oil and gas development occurs in some areas occupied by Cirsium wrightii. Potential contamination from these activities may have several impacts on plants including: increased available nutrients, which may favor competitive or nonnative plant growth; altered soil pH (either higher or lower), which can kill plants; absorption of chemicals, which can poison plants or cause poor growth or dead spots on leaves; and plant mortality.

In addition, oil and other contaminants from development and drilling activities throughout these areas could enter the aquifer supplying the springs and seeps inhabited by Cirsium wrightii when the limestone layers are pierced by drilling activities. The largest occupied habitat area is less than 40 acres, and more than half the known populations are less than 5 acres in size. Even a small localized spill has the potential to contaminate and destroy a population. The loss of even one of the eight populations would be a significant loss of representation and redundancy, 53 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 especially because oil and gas development activities are near some of the larger extant populations. An accidental oil spill or groundwater contamination has the potential to pollute water sources that support C. wrightii and potentially negatively affect the species in the foreseeable future, although it is unclear whether these impacts would be localized or widespread stressors to the species.

Santa Rosa Basin—According to the New Mexico State Lands Office, there are relatively few (approximately 5) oil and gas leases within 10 mi (16 km) of this population. There is a rather extensive area of federal mineral ownership approximately 10 mi (16 km) northwest of the population, which could influence future oil and gas development (New Mexico State Lands Office, 2017).

Bitter Lake NWR—There is a history of oil and gas industry operations on and adjacent to Bitter Lake NWR. According to the New Mexico State Lands Office, there are approximately 1,000 ac (400 ha) of land on Bitter Lake NWR that are part of an oil and gas lease, including an extensive network of oil and gas leases within 10 mi (16 km) east of the refuge (New Mexico State Lands Office, 2017). Some of these leases have resulted in spillage of oil and brine onto the Refuge (Service 2005a; NMDGF 2002, pp. 3-4). Petroleum contamination has also been reported from the Black River and areas adjacent to Bitter Lake NWR (NMDGF 2005a, pp. 18–19; Richard 1989).

Roswell Country Club—Evidence of oil and gas development within close proximity (10 mi (16 km)) to this population was not found (New Mexico State Lands Office, 2017).

Blue Springs—Since 2001, there has been a significant expansion of oil and gas operations in Eddy County, especially within the Black River watershed and, in particular, around Blue Spring (NMDGF 2007, pp. 18–19; NMDGF 2005, p. 35). According to the New Mexico State Lands Office, there is a high concentration of oil and gas leases within 10 mi (16 km) of this population, along with many active wells (New Mexico State Lands Office, 2017). Several low- water crossings span the Black River. Transit of heavy trucks carrying petroleum-derived products could result in surface water contamination from leakage or accidents (NMDGF 2007a, p. 20). Similarly, oil and gas development in this area of southeastern New Mexico has the potential to impact groundwater quality (Goodbar 2007, pp. 213–214).

Alamosa Springs—While the New Mexico State Lands Office does not report any active oil and gas leases in the area, Sivinski (2012, p. 9) noted in his 2012 survey that a proposed open-pit beryllium mine in the nearby hills to the south (across Alamosa Creek) may pose a potential threat (New Mexico State Lands Office, 2017). He noted that exploratory drilling into the ore body has been done and that a mining permit is expected to be requested from the State of New Mexico in the near future. However, the spring landowner, Monticello Community Ditch Association, is opposing mining operations because of potential hydrologic impacts to spring flow and water quality. Further, these springs are the only known habitat of the Alamosa springsnail (Pseudotryonia alamosae) and the Chiricahua leopard frog (Lithobates chiricahuensis), which are federally listed endangered species, and consultation with the Service would need to occur prior to implementing the project, so this mining may not be permitted. As of 2017, the Service is not aware of any new actions towards implementing the mine.

54 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Additionally, a permit was recently issued by the New Mexico Energy, Minerals and Natural Resources Department for subsurface drilling and exploration of the mineral bertrandite on Sullivan Ranch (New Mexico Mining and Minerals Division 2010), near the Cirsium wrightii locality at Alamosa Springs, Socorro County, New Mexico, which has the potential to affect the species (Sivinski 2009c; NMDGF 2000).

Tularosa Creek—While there is some oil and gas activity located off tribal lands to the west of this population, the population itself should not be impacted by oil and gas development as it resides on the Mescalero Apache Reservation (New Mexico State Lands Office, 2017).

Silver Springs—Evidence of oil and gas development within close proximity (10 mi (16 km)) to this population was not found (New Mexico State Lands Office, 2017).

La Luz Canyon—There is some oil and gas development north of the population; however, the impacts of this development are likely to be negligible (New Mexico State Lands Office, 2017).

Karr/Haynes Canyon—Evidence of oil and gas development within close proximity (10 mi (16 km)) to this population was not found (New Mexico State Lands Office, 2017).

Lake Valley—Evidence of oil and gas development within close proximity (10 mi (16 km)) to this population was not found (New Mexico State Lands Office, 2017).

4.5. Pollinators

Effective pollination of Cirsium wrightii requires the availability of insect pollinators (bees, including bumble bees; butterflies, including monarchs; and other insect pollinators, including flies and beetles), in adequate numbers. Diverse flowering plant communities containing plants with overlapping flowering periods may share such generalist pollinators and increase probability of pollination (Ghazoul 2006, p. 295). This could be of particular importance in smaller populations of C. wrightii, where the number of individual C. wrightii may not be adequate to attract pollinators.

Optimal or high condition habitat will have diverse floral communities to attract pollinators and no decline in pollinator numbers or species. Declining pollinator abundance could lead to less frequent flower visitation and abrupt or gradual diminution of seed and fruit production in many plants (Cane 2001, p. 1). However, while possible decline in pollinators in the southwest may be a concern in the future for Cirsium wrightii, there is currently little evidence of specific decline in the plant’s pollinators in New Mexico. As noted previously, bumble bees are the primary pollinators of C. wrightii, and while some population declines have been documented for certain Bombus species globally, there is less confidence in population declines for other insect pollinators (Allen-Wardell et al. 2017, p. 11). Research that showed declines in bumble bee populations in Europe (Carvell et al. 2006, p. 481) has led to the concern that they may be in decline in North America. However, the evidence for largescale range reductions across North America is not as well documented (Cameron et al. 2011, p. 662). In their research, Cameron et al. (2011, pp. 662–663) found that the relative abundances of four North American Bombus species have siginificantly declined and their surveyed geographic ranges have contracted as well, but these species are found in other parts of the country, not specificly New Mexico. 55 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Cameron et al. (2011, p. 665) also found that other co-occuring Bombus species remained relatively abundant.

Given that thistles are visited by generalist pollinators, it is difficult to predict that pollinators of Cirsium wrightii will decline over time; it is not likely that butterflies, bees, beetles, etc., will all decline (McIntyre 2017, pers. comm.). Given that there is a lack of information on possible decline of insect pollinators in general in the southwest, including information specific to C. wrightti’s pollinators, we do not have the available information needed to draw any conclusions or make predictions about probable effects to C. wrightii in the foreseesable future and effects to the resiliency of C. wrightii.

4.6. Summary

All eight extant Cirsium wrightii habitats are spring, stream, and pond wetlands that are vulnerable to spring capture and aquifer depletion for agricultural, mineral mining, or urban purposes. Since the 1995 habitat assessment, Tularosa Creek and Haynes Canyon populations are nearly extirpated from habitat drying since the 1995 habitat assessment. Some populations in the Santa Rosa Basin are additionally impacted by urban development and livestock grazing (Sivinski 2012, p. 54), as well as by the expansion of Phragmites australis.

Our analysis of the past, current, and future influences on what Cirsium wrightii needs for long term viability revealed that there are three stressors that pose the largest risk to future viability of the species. These stressors are primarily related to habitat changes: (1) the alteration and loss of habitat that currently supports C. wrightii, due to groundwater and surface water depletion, exacerbated by climate change; (2) livestock grazing and associated and increased use of wet springs and marshes during drought conditions; and (3) competition with nonnative plants, such as Phragmites australis, through increased fire risk, competition for water resources, and changes in hydrology, especially when habitat is disturbed through burning or drying. To a lesser degree, the potential of oil and gas development and mining to pollute water sources that support C. wrightii may be a stressor. We did not assess overutilization for scientific and commercial purposes, herbicide application, mowing, or disease, because these risks do not appear to be occurring to the degree that they affect C. wrightii at the population level. Nor did we include analyses of the use of insects as biological control for weedy thistles or insect infestation/parasitism, as we have no information suggesting these are affecting populations of C. wrightii. The risks from groundwater and surface water depletion, climate change, livestock grazing, competition with nonnative plants, increased fire risk, the potential negative impacts of oil and gas development, are carried forward in our assessment of the future conditions of C. wrightii populations and the viability of the species overall.

56 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 CHAPTER 5 – VIABILITY

We have considered what Cirsium wrightii needs for viability and the current condition of those needs (Chapters 2 and 3), and we reviewed the stressors that are driving the historical, current, and future conditions of the species (Chapter 4). We now consider what the species’ future conditions are likely to be. We apply our future forecasts to the concepts of resiliency, redundancy, and representation to describe the future viability of the C. wrightii.

5.1. Introduction

Cirsium wrightii has declined significantly in overall distribution and abundance. The former populations in Arizona and Mexico are now considered extirpated, with suitable habitat area declining in most of the extant populations in New Mexico, accompanied by declines in population sizes as well. The primary cause of the declines in habitat quantity and population numbers is the drying of cienegas, seeps, and springs as a result of groundwater withdrawal, agricultural diversion of streams and springs, increasing number and intensity of drought episodes (as related to climate change in the region), and cattle grazing in wetland habitats. Urban expansion and mining exploration further exacerbate both wetland habitat conversion and water depletion. Wetland habitat changes have favored the spread of nonnative plants (e.g., Phragmites australis and Tamarix spp.), which may outcompete C. wrightii in obtaining water and soil nutrients, reduce flowering plant diversity and pollinator abundance, and tend to shade C. wrightii from its requisite full sun exposure.

Both the larger and smaller populations of Cirsium wrightii face stressors from natural and anthropogenic sources. Climate change has already begun to affect the regions of New Mexico where Cirsium wrightii occurs, resulting in increased drought, increased evapotranspiration, increased groundwater pumping and surface water diversion, such that water levels rangewide have already reached historical lows (Dean and Schmidt 2011, p. 336; Bren School of Environmental Management 2014, p. 50).

These stressors, alone or in combination, could result in the extirpation of one or more of the eight extant New Mexico populations, further reducing the overall redundancy and representation of the species. The western representation is particularly vulnerable to these stressors, as these populations have much smaller habitat areas and are less plentiful and robust. Under current conditions, the viability of C. wrightii is lower than it was historically due to the loss of previously extant populations in Arizona and Mexico, along with the small habitat area and low numbers of Cirsium wrightii characteristic of the western New Mexico populations, which have experienced rapid decline in recent years. As a consequence of these current conditions, the viability of Cirsium wrightii now primarily depends on the survival of the remaining populations, most of which are declining in number.

5.1.1. Scenarios

Since there are a range of possibilities regarding the intensity of stressors (i.e., decreased water availability, ungulate grazing, native and nonnative plants, oil and gas development and mining) acting on the population, we have forecast Cirsium wrightii resiliency, representation, and

57 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 redundancy under four plausible scenarios. The Continuing Current Conditions scenario evaluates the condition of C. wrightti if there is no increase in the current level of stressors to the populations from what exists today, while the other scenarios evaluate the response of the species to changes in those stressors. The Optimistic scenario represents decreases in stressors acting on the populations, via implementation of conservation measures. It takes into account conservation measures that have been started or are close to initiation in some of the population areas, plus those of which we are aware that are in the planning stages, as well as realistically possible additional protective measures which may or may not happen. The Major Effects and Severe Effects scenarios represent increases in stressors acting on the populations, to varying degrees of intensity.

We examine the resiliency, representation, and redundancy of Cirsium wrightii under each of these four plausible scenarios. Resiliency of C. wrightii populations depends on future suitable habitat quantity, which relies on the availability of saturated soils, full sunlight, and minimal nonnative plant growth in cienegas and spring runs. We expect the eight extant C. wrightii populations to experience changes to these aspects of their habitat in different ways under the different scenarios. We projected the expected future resiliency of each population based on the events that would occur under each scenario. We included an assessment of abundance of mature plants and reproduction (which depends on number of rosettes compared to mature plants) for the future scenarios. We then projected an overall condition for each population. For these projections, populations in high condition are expected to have high resiliency at that time period; i.e., they are at the high end of the known density range, they are reproducing successfully, and they occupy habitat of sufficient size to allow for fluctuations in population size that may result from localized droughts. Populations in high condition are expected to persist into the future (90-100% likelihood), beyond 50 years, and have some ability to withstand stochastic events that may occur. Populations in moderate condition are less resilient than those in high condition, but the majority of these populations are expected to persist beyond 50 years (66-90% likelihood). Populations in moderate condition are smaller and less dense than those in high condition. Those populations in low condition have low resiliency and are not necessarily able to withstand stochastic events. As a result, they are the even less likely to persist 50 years (likelihood 25-66%). Finally, populations in very low condition have very low resiliency and area particularly vulnerable to stochastic events. These populations are the least likely to persist 50 years (likelihood 0-25%).

As noted previously, the five Western populations occur in small, mountainous, individual, isolated cienegas, whereas the three Eastern population locations are comprised of aggregations of at least three springs. Therefore, we consider the eastern populations to have internal patch redundancy that helps to increase their resiliency.

For each scenario, we estimated the likelihood of that scenario occurring in 10, 25, and 50 years. We used the scale in Table 5.1 to estimate these likelihoods.

58 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Table 5.1. Table provides an explanation of confidence terminologies used to estimate the likelihood of scenario occurrence. Confidence Terminology Explanation We are more than 90% sure that this Highly likely scenario will occur.

We are 70 to 90% sure that this Moderately likely scenario will occur.

We are 50 to 70% sure that this Somewhat likely scenario will occur

We are less than 50% sure that this Unlikely scenario will occur. Indicates high uncertainty.

5.2. Scenario 1—Continuing Current Condition

This scenario projects the condition of Cirsium wrightii populations if the current risks to population viability continue with the same trajectory as displayed currently. Decreased water availability continues to impact the population via continuing levels of drought, along with ground and surface water depletion. Climate change continues to occur at a low level and has cumulative effects. Grazing continues where it has been occurring and the impacts will accumulate. Competition from native and nonnative plants continues, along with any current impacts from oil and gas development. Table 5.2 summarizes the stressors to resiliency under this scenario, and Table 5.3 provides the habitat and population factor rankings under this scenario, with overall condition summary.

5.2.1. Resiliency

Eastern New Mexico populations (north to south)

5.2.1.1. Santa Rosa: Alkaline wetlands are numerous in this population; however, they continue to be negatively impacted by agriculture, urban development, livestock grazing, and nonnative plants.

Decreased water availability—Urban development has led to wetland filling, mowing, and herbicide application which directly affect the amount of available habitat (Sivinski 2012, p. 33). Points of diversion for agricultural uses impact water availability in the area. In addition, climate change, resulting in mildly greater temperatures (an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 1.5°F (0.83 °C) over 50 years) , exacerbates the effects of drought which may decrease the amount of water available for the permanent root saturation required by the species.

59 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Ungulate grazing—With approximately a dozen agricultural leases in the area, some areas are continuously grazed, while others have rotational grazing. This impacts the availability of water for the permanent root saturation required by the species.

Native and nonnative plants—Four abandoned fish hatchery pond bottoms have sufficient soil saturation to support thistle patches. Sivinski (2012, p. 37) notes that the pond bottoms are becoming drier and more densely covered by native cottonwood trees and nonnative plants, so it is likely that the habitat quantity may be decreased with time and access to direct sunlight decreased. An approximately 6-ac cienega by one spring on privately-owned land has had nonnative vegetation removed and a fence erected to exclude cattle grazing, as a result of a Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) grant to promote native plant community restoration; the fence was in good condition in 2012; current status of fence is unknown (Sivinski 2012, p. 47). A house was built adjacent to this property in 2017 and Elaeagnus angustifola is resprouting (Roth 2017d, pers. comm.). Nonnative plants could be controlled via removal to limit the spread of invasive plants, which may help to offset the negative impact to sun exposure.

We predict that over time conditions will decline at Santa Rosa. Though it will likely still remain a large complex of patches (there are currently at least 21 according to Sivinski’s 2012 survey (p. 33), we expect some habitat area will be lost. The population will likely maintain a low abundance and reproduction will likely decrease somewhat to a moderate level. While some sites are experiencing decrease in habitat quality and quantity as a result of grazing, urban development, and water diversion for irrigation, some conservation measures are effective at some of the patch sites. As a result, the resiliency of C. wrightii will remain at a moderate level.

5.2.1.2. Bitter Lake NWR: This population continues to be impacted by decreased water availability and the encroachment of native and nonnative plants.

Decreased water availability—Groundwater use and periods of drought continue to be stressors to the springs and spring biota in the Roswell artesian basin, of which Bitter Lake NWR is a part. These impacts, along with the exacerbating effects of climate change (an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 1.5°F (0.83 °C) over 50 years) limit available habitat and the permanent root saturation required by the species.

Native and nonnative plants—Cirsium wrightii currently occurs in cienega habitat at two separate parts of the refuge. The northern area did have some nonnative Tamarix chinensis (salt cedar) present, but most of these plants have been removed (Sivinski 2012, p. 30). Some C. wrightii occur in Typha spp. stands in the southern patches, and with Phragmites australis in both southern and northern patches. Tall stands of P. australis appear to suppress maturation of C. wrightii as a result of reduced sunlight exposure (Sivinski 2012, p. 33).

We expect management actions that benefit C. wrightii to continue at the refuge. Thus, the resiliency of this population should remain fairly constant over time, with a moderate condition.

60 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 5.2.1.3. Roswell Country Club: This area is expected to remain a country club, and thus the habitat will remain unsuitable for Cirsium wrightii, and this former population will continue to be extirpated.

5.2.1.4. Blue Spring: Though this area has the potential to be the largest area of suitable habitat, it is uncertain whether the area is fully occupied (Sivinski 2012, p. 25).

Decreased water availability—There will likely be greater impacts from water withdrawals with time from this spring system, as water points of diversion for agricultural and urban uses will continue to exert pressure on the water supply. Agricultural interests may also see the dense vegetation along the spring run as an impediment to the spring flow that provides irrigation water to the Black River and, as a result, may construct a diversion ditch for the spring run (Sivinski 2012, p. 27). Additionally, climate change may result in a drying of some lands (with an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 1.5 °F (0.83 °C) over 50 years) by the spring run. These impacts will ultimately reduce availability of water to maintain permanent root saturation for the species.

Native and nonnative plants—Drying of the habitat due to exacerbating effects of climate change may allow for encroaching nonnative vegetation and subsequent reduction of sun exposure.

Oil and gas development, mining—The uplands surrounding Blue Spring are being explored and developed for oil and gas production, which may adversely affect water quality and quantity of this spring (Sivinski 2012, p. 27). This could impact the availability of water for permanent root saturation, as well as the amount of available habitat.

Over time, we anticipate that root saturation and full sunlight will be reduced from moderate to low conditions. Despite this population being spread over one of the largest identified areas of suitable habitat, its low population size and reproductive success will likely decrease its resiliency to a low overall condition.

Western New Mexico populations (north to south)

5.2.1.5. Alamosa Springs: Though the habitat area of this small cienega is only estimated at 2.4 ac, it has a moderate reproductive rate (as measured by the ratio of rosettes to mature plants) (Sivinski 2012, p. 9). Major impacts on this population include exacerbating effects of climate change.

Decreased water availability—Low levels of climate change (with an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 1.5 °F (0.83 °C) over 50 years) may have a significant effect on this small area, of both localized drying and flooding events. For a population which already experiences extreme floods, flooding may cause repeated disturbance to the habitat.

Oil and gas development, mining—We make the assumption that the planned beryllium mine does not occur.

61 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 With the limited habitat, we expect the reproductive rate may decline slightly as effects of being a small population are realized. Over time, we think this population will continue to have low resiliency, primarily due to its small habitat quantity.

5.2.1.6. Tularosa Creek: This previously sizable population has diminished since 1996 to a small portion of its former habitat area and population size, which is down from several thousand to approximately 4 mature plants in a 2012 survey (Sivinski 2012, pp. 18, 20–21). Impacts to this population include decreased water availability, along with native and nonnative plants.

Decreased water availability—Ground water is greatly reduced, due to unknown causes, which continues to inhibit the ability of the species to obtain permanent root saturation.

Native and nonnative plants—Dense stands of Phragmites australis and Salix exigua have become established (Sivinski 2012, p. 21), resulting in reduced sun exposure.

Over time, we expect this population to become extirpated as the limited habitat begins to decline in both quantity and quality.

5.2.1.7. Silver Springs: This population, while very small in area, is within the Lincoln National Forest. There are no special conservation measures for Cirsium wrightii (Roemmich 2017, pers. comm.) Even though this population is next to a much larger wet meadow, it does not expand into this wetland (Sivinski 2012, p. 21). Major impacts to this population are mostly a result of the exacerbating effects of climate change on water availability.

Decreased water availability—This population is part of a larger wetland, is on Forest Service lands, and has not experienced grazing in the last 20 years; therefore, the effects of climate change (with an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 1.5 °F (0.83 °C) over 50 years) are expected to slightly reduce soil saturation through drought impacts.

Over time, it is expected the permanent root saturation will decline from high to moderate. Given the small habitat area and reduction in soil water, we expect the population will remain in overall very low condition.

5.2.1.8. La Luz Canyon: This is another small population (in area and numbers) within the Lincoln National Forest. There are no special conservation measures for Cirsium wrightii (Roemmich 2017, pers. comm.). Major impacts to this population are mostly a result of the exacerbating effects of climate change on water availability.

Decreased water availability—The lower part of La Luz Canyon is severely eroded and cut down, while the upper part has experienced water diversion for agricultural and municipal use. The Cirsium wrightii patch at this locality is at one of the few remaining natural springs in the canyon (Sivinski 2012, p. 17). Comparing the 1995 and 2012 surveys at this site, the population number remained fairly constant (Sivinski 2012, p. 18). The wetland plant community did not

62 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 exhibit much change during that period, either. Low levels of climate change (with an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 1.5 °F (0.83 °C) over 50 years) are expected to cause both drying and extreme flood events, which will further impair the eroded condition of the canyon and could increase the negative impacts of water diversion.

We expect the population will continue into the future, with a similar population size and area. However, given the small population number and habitat area, and low soil saturation, it will remain in very low overall condition, with very low resiliency, and relatively high risk of extirpation.

5.2.1.9. Karr/Haynes Canyons: The population size along Karr Canyon Road remained fairly constant during the 1995, 2005, and 2012 surveys (Sivinski 2012, p. 12). In 2012, two new patches with about 500 mature plants were discovered along Raven Road (Sivinski 2012, p. 13). The habitat exhibits a diverse wetland plant community. The Haynes Canyon habitat area is small, and a portion near the confluence with Karr Canyon has been extirpated of Cirsium wrightii previously growing there, and the remaining plants in this area are few in number. Major impacts to this population include ungulate grazing, along with native and nonnative plants.

Ungulate grazing—Livestock grazing occurs in portions of the area, which serves to limit area of available habitat.

Native and nonnative plant—Two roads cross and cover part of the habitat, and associated road maintenance and nonnative grass planting further reduce habitat quality and quantity (Sivinski 2012, p. 15).

Over time, we expect the small Haynes Canyon subpopulation will become extirpated as a result of these impacts, leading to continued low abundance. Overall condition of this entire population will remain low, with low resiliency.

5.2.1.10. Lake Valley: This former population continues to be extirpated. The habitat remains unsuitable for Cirsium wrightii and therefore it is unlikely that a population could be reestablished here.

Arizona and Mexico populations

5.2.1.11. San Bernardino, AZ: Even though this population has been extirpated and the habitat dried out and made unsuitable, the habitat is slowly recovering (Radke 2017, pers. comm.). Nevertheless, this population will remain extirpated

5.2.1.12. Mexico (Fronteras and Cerro Angostura): We make the assumption that conservation actions, habitat restoration, and replanting will not occur; thus the localities in Mexico will continue to be extirpated.

63 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Resiliency Summary

Under scenario 1—Continuing Current Condition, we would expect C. wrightii’s viability to be characterized by some loss of resiliency. Of the eight currently extant populations, no populations would be in high overall condition, two would be in moderate condition, three would be in low condition, two would be in very low condition, and one would become extirpated. The five extirpated sites would continue to be extirpated. This scenario assumes climate change will be moderate, in the middle range of forecasts, and thus drought events will become somewhat more frequent or severe. Groundwater extraction and spring diversion will continue. These factors in combination will reduce availability of the important resource of saturated soils. Over the next 10 years, this scenario is moderately likely to occur. After 25 years the Continuing Conditions scenario is somewhat likely to occur and at 50 years is unlikely to occur, due to the accumulating effects of climate change, leading to increased drought and water depletion, which will likely decrease soil saturation further over time, and thereby increasing the probability of the Major Effects and Severe Effects scenarios.

64 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Table 5.2. Threats impacting each of the 6 factors affecting overall population resiliency for each Cirsium wrightii population under Scenario 1.The dark line separates the Eastern (top) from the Western (bottom) populations. Stressors to Population Resiliency Population Habitat Quantity Abundance Patches Reproduction Root Saturation Full Sun Livestock grazing Livestock grazing Livestock grazing Livestock grazing Urban and continues Urban and agricultural Urban and agricultural Nonnative plant Santa Rosa Basin agricultural Urban and development development removals increase development agricultural Climate change Climate change development Increased vegetation Bitter Lake NWR Climate change Climate change encroachment Roswell Country Club Unsuitable habitat Oil and gas Oil and gas development development Urban and Increased vegetation Blue Spring Urban and agricultural agricultural encroachment development development Climate change Climate change Beryllium mine on Floods cause repeated Small population and Alamosa Springs Climate change hold disturbance area Water loss due to Water loss due to Small population and Increased vegetation Tularosa Creek unknown causes unknown causes area encroachment Climate change Climate change Small population and Silver Springs Climate change Climate change area Small population and La Luz Canyon Climate change Climate change area Ongoing grazing Ongoing grazing Increased vegetation Moderate population Karr/Haynes Canyon Roads through Haynes Canyon Climate change encroachment and small area habitat population extirpated Lake Valley Unsuitable habitat San Bernadino Cienega Unsuitable habitat Fronteras, MX Assumed extirpated Cerro Angostura, MX Assumed extirpated

65 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Table 5.3. Cirsium wrightii population resiliency rankings under Scenario 1, based on the 6 factors affecting overall condition. Dark line separates the Eastern (top) from the Western (bottom) populations. Population Factors Habitat Factors Overall Condition Estimated Permanent Average Final Habitat Number of Population Occupied Abundance Reproduction Root Full Sun Current Current Quantity Patches Habitat Saturation Condition Condition Santa Rosa Basin 38.78 ac Moderate High Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Bitter Lake 22.63 ac Moderate High Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate NWR Roswell Country Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated High Extirpated Extirpated Club Blue Spring 39.7 ac Moderate Low Low Low* Low Low Low Low

Alamosa Springs 2.37 ac Low Low Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Low

Tularosa Creek .07 ac Low Low Low Low* Low Moderate Low Extirpated

Silver Springs .03 ac Low Low Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Very Low

La Luz Canyon .06 ac Low Low Low Moderate Low Moderate Low Very Low Karr/Haynes 4.69 ac Low Moderate Low Moderate** Low Moderate Low Low Canyons Lake Valley Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Moderate Extirpated Extirpated San Bernardino Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Low Moderate Extirpated Extirpated Cienega, AZ Fronteras, MX Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Moderate Extirpated Extirpated Cerro Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Moderate Extirpated Extirpated Angostura, MX *For areas where cienegas have been dried out and succession to other ecosystems has begun, the assumption is made that initially sun exposure would be high, but as bushes and trees grow in these former wetlands, sunlight reaching ground will decrease to moderate and then to low exposure (except for the country club).

66 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 5.2.2. Representation

As discussed above, we consider Cirsium wrightii to have representation in the form of differing ecological and genetic diversity in two areas: (1) the eastern Pecos River and Santa Rosa Basin populations, and (2) the western populations in the Sacramento Mountains and Alamosa Creek. Under the Continuing Conditions scenario, we expect the eastern and western populations to continue to be represented, with a slight reduction from full representation. The eastern populations are generally much larger in area, higher in abundance of mature plants, and in higher overall condition (with two in moderate and one in low condition) than the western populations. We also expect the four of the five western populations to continue to be extant into the future, with two in low condition and two in very low condition.

5.2.3. Redundancy

Within these identified representation areas, we examined what redundancy would exist under the various scenarios. Under the Continuing Conditions scenario, redundancy would decrease slightly over time, with three eastern and four western populations extant (Figure 5.1). In the eastern populations, each of which has multiple springs, some individual springs may be lost (dried), so some of the patch redundancy may be lost.

67 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Figure 5.1. Map shows the resiliency, representation, and redundancy of Cirsium wrightii under the Continuing Conditions scenario based on information presented in Tables 5.2 and 5.3. .

68 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017

5.3. Scenario 2—Optimistic

This scenario projects the condition of Cirsium wrightii populations if conservation measures are put in place to limit the impacts of current risks to population viability. Conservation efforts are put in place to lessen the impacts of decreased water availability via ground and surface water depletion, where possible. Conservation efforts are also taken to address the impacts of livestock grazing and competition with native and nonnative plants. We assume that the effects of climate change are on the low end of the spectrum, leading to less severe effects of drought on the riparian ecosystems of which C. wrightii is a part. Table 5.4 summarizes the stressors to resiliency under this scenario, and Table 5.5 provides the habitat and population factor rankings under this scenario, with overall condition summary.

5.3.1. Resiliency

Eastern New Mexico populations (north to south)

5.3.1.1. Santa Rosa: Conservation efforts designed to reduce the impacts of ungulate grazing, as well as native and nonnative plants, will be put in place for this population. The assumption is also made that drought, along with the exacerbating effects of climate changes, are on the low end of projected values (with an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 1.0°F (0.6 °C) and increases in mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of 0-10 millimeters (mm) over 50 years).

Decreased water availability—With climate change effects remaining low, the impacts of drought are less severe and this population is able to sustain moderate permanent root saturation.

Ungulate grazing- Private landowners in the area may avail themselves of NRCS grants available to help protect cienega habitat from cattle grazing. Efforts to restrict areas from cattle grazing and to avoid grazing during late summer and fall will be taken. Thus suitable habitat may increase, and additional patches of Cirsium wrightii may become established.

Native and nonnative plants—The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) has proposed a project to restore 26 ac of riparian and aquatic habitat near the Janes-Wallace Memorial Dam at El Rito Creek. If funded and completed, the proposed project will involve removing nonnative vegetation in the area and replanting native plants to help restore the riparian ecosystem. Thus, there may be some expansion of habitat due to the Corp’s planned conservation measures. The possibility of conducting some seed collection and integrating planting of Cirsium wrightii into the re-vegetation efforts was discussed (Pruitt 2017, pers. comm.). Also, the NRCS has also been negotiating with a private landowner to purchase a 30-acre wetland conservation easement that includes C. wrightii habitat (Sivinski 2012, p. 45). Education of those who are mowing or spraying herbicides may occur to help minimize impacts to C. wrightii patches. Continued nonnative plant removal will help to offset spread of nonnative plants, and result in increased availability of full sunlight.

69 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 We expect habitat quantity and the habitat element of full sun to increase from moderate to high and abundance to increase from low to moderate based on efforts to remove competing native and nonnative vegetation. The overall condition of this population complex is expected to increase to a high condition.

5.3.1.2. Bitter Lake NWR: Conservation efforts designed to manage impact of native and nonnative species will be completed. The assumption is also made that drought, along with the exacerbating effects of climate changes, are on the low end of projected values (with an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 1.0°F (0.6 °C) and increases in mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of 0-10 mm over 50 years) .

Decreased water availability—With climate change effects remaining low, the impacts of drought are less severe and this population is able to sustain moderate permanent root saturation

Native and nonnative vegetation—Active management of the wetlands, including moist soil management techniques, continues. Controlled burns will continue to help remove nonnative vegetation, and active removal of Phragmites australis and Typha spp. will further help to decrease competition with nonnative plants, and maintain full sun exposure.

We expect habitat quantity, along with abundance and full sun, to increase from moderate to high as a result of nonnative vegetation management. The overall condition of this population is expected to increase from moderate to high.

5.3.1.3. Roswell Country Club: Continues to be maintained as a country club; therefore no suitable habitat will exist at this locality, and Cirsium wrightii will continue to be extirpated.

Western New Mexico populations (north to south)

5.3.1.4. Blue Spring: Conservation efforts to limit impacts of decreased water availability, native and nonnative plants, and oil and gas development will be taken. We make the assumption that climate change is at the low to moderate end of that which is forecast, and therefore drought effects are not severe (with an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 1.0°F (0.6 °C) and increases in mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of 0-10 mm over 50 years) .

Decreased water availability—We assume that further water diversions for agricultural use will not be completed, or may possibly be reduced. With climate change effects remaining low to moderate, the impacts of drought are less severe and this population is able to sustain moderate permanent root saturation

Native and nonnative plants—We assume that nonnative vegetation encroachment will be minimal. This will allow the population to maintain moderate full sun exposure.

70 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Oil and gas development, mining—We assume further oil and gas exploration will not occur in the area. With less impact from oil and gas, the population will have the ability to increase in abundance over time.

We expect these conditions, combined with the large suitable habitat, to allow the small population of an estimated 300 plants to grow with time to a moderate population abundance with a moderate number of patches and moderate reproduction. We expect this population to establish a moderate overall condition and high resiliency.

5.3.1.5. Alamosa Springs: Efforts to limit the impacts of oil and gas development and mining in the area are taken. We make the assumption that climate change is at the low end of that which is forecast, and therefore drought effects are not severe (with an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 1.0°F (0.6 °C) and increases in mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of 0-10 mm over 50 years).

Decreased water availability—With climate change effects remaining low, the impacts of drought are less severe and this population is able to sustain moderate permanent root saturation.

Oil and gas development, mining—The planned beryllium mine is abandoned, so there are no effects from it. With less impact from mining exploration, the habitat quantity will have the opportunity to increase.

We expect the small population will increase from a moderate to high reproductive rate, so mature plants are replaced and the life cycle continues successfully. However, due to constraints of habitat quantity, we expect this population to maintain a low overall condition, with low resiliency through time.

5.3.1.6. Tularosa Creek: We make the assumption that climate change is at the low end of that which is forecast, and therefore drought effects are not severe (with an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 1.0°F (0.6 °C) and increases in mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of 0-10 mm over 50 years) .

Decreased water availability—With climate change effects remaining low to moderate, the impacts of drought are less severe and this population is able to sustain low permanent root saturation, necessary to maintain the population in this small area.

With such a small population in a limited area, we expect the overall condition of the population to remain very low, and this population continues to be at risk of extirpation.

5.3.1.7. Silver Springs: While this population is located within the Lincoln National Forest, no special conservation measures are planned for this site (Roemmich 2017, pers. comm.), aside from continued non- grazing. We make the assumption that climate change is at the low end of that which is forecast, and therefore drought effects are not severe (with an increase in mean daily maximum

71 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 temperature of approximately 1.0°F (0.6 °C) and increases in mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of 0-10 mm over 50 years).

Decreased water availability—With climate change effects remaining low, the impacts of drought are less severe and this population is able to sustain high permanent root saturation.

Ungulate grazing- Grazing will continue to not occur at this location, potentially allowing the habitat size to increase slightly.

Even though permanent root saturation remains high and full sun remains moderate, we expect this population to continue to be constrained by its small habitat quantity and it will remain in very low overall condition.

5.3.1.8. La Luz Canyon: While this population is located within the Lincoln National Forest, no special conservation measures are planned for this site (Roemmich 2017, pers. comm.), aside from continued non- grazing. We make the assumption that climate change is at the low end of that which is forecast, and therefore drought effects are not severe (with an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 1.0°F (0.6 °C) and increases in mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of 0-10 mm over 50 years) .

Decreased water availability—With climate change effects remaining low, the impacts of drought are less severe and this population will be able to increase from low to moderate permanent root saturation.

We expect the overall condition of this population to remain in a very low condition, due to habitat area restraints.

5.3.1.9. Karr/Haynes Canyons: Efforts to decrease the impacts of native and nonnative plants, as well as ungulate grazing will be taken for this population. We make the assumption that climate change is at the low end of that which is forecast, and therefore drought effects are not severe (with an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 1.0°F (0.6 °C) and increases in mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of 0-10 mm over 50 years). We also assume that the small subpopulation in Haynes Canyon is not extirpated.

Decreased water availability- With climate change effects remaining low, the impacts of drought are less severe and this population will be able to increase from low to moderate permanent root saturation.

Ungulate grazing- Cattle grazing is restricted to protect the wetland areas.

Native and nonnative plant- Road maintenance is conducted in such a way that nonnative plants are not plant, reducing the levels of encroachment, which helps to maintain moderate full sun.

We expect the population to maintain overall low condition and low resiliency.

72 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017

5.3.1.10. Lake Valley: This former population continues to be extirpated. The habitat remains unsuitable for Cirsium wrightii and therefore it is unsuitable to replant and reestablish a population here.

Arizona and Mexico populations

5.3.1.11. San Bernardino, AZ: Even though this population has been extirpated and the habitat dried out and made unsuitable, the habitat is slowly recovering (Radke 2017, pers. comm.), and may become suitable for replanting in future recovery efforts.

5.3.1.12. Mexico (Fronteras and Cerro Angostura): We make the assumption that conservation actions, habitat restoration, and replanting will not occur; thus the localities in Mexico will continue to be extirpated.

In addition to evaluating realistic conditions under an optimistic scenario, we also considered what efforts may be feasible and beneficial under active conservation and recovery actions, as a sort of wish list for the plant’s conservation. These include:

(1) The possible creation of conservation easements on private lands, including agreements to not divert spring water. We have information on easements which already exist in the Lake Valley area (New Mexico Land Conservancy 2017, pers. comm.). However, as the Lake Valley site is currently extirpated and the habitat unsuitable, habitat restoration and reintroductions of the plant would be necessary to reestablish a population there, so we did not include this as a possibility under the Optimistic Scenario. (2) Collection, banking, and growing of Cirsium wrightii seeds in greenhouses for replanting at sites with recovering habitat. (3) At Blue Spring, water rights purchases, vegetation removal, easement, and oil and gas development is abandoned; replanting. (4) At Alamosa Springs, plans for beryllium mine are abandoned; replanting. (5) Cattle grazing best management practices (BMPs) at La Luz Canyon, which is owned by the Forest Service, to minimize effects of grazing on Cirsium wrightii through seasonal grazing restrictions and cattle exclosures around the spring; removal of tall vegetation; replanting. (6) Similar cattle BMPs being established at Karr/Haynes Canyons, which, even though are private lands, are also within Lincoln National Forest, as well as inclusion of nearby Tularosa Creek and Silver Springs site localities, through conservation agreements; replanting. (7) At Silver Springs, vegetation management opens additional areas for expansion; outplanting. (8) Replanting of Cirsium wrightii at the extirpated San Bernardino site, as Radke (2017, pers. comm.) noted there are patches of recovering suitable habitat there.

73 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Resiliency Summary

The Optimistic scenario provides an idea of Cirsium wrightii’s best plausible condition over the next 50 years. In this scenario presumes all eight currently extant populations are able to maintain or improve their current condition, as a result of targeted management at Bitter Lake NWR and potential habitat restoration (natural and man-assisted) at two sites. Overall, there would be two populations in high condition, one in moderate condition, two in low condition, and three in very low condition. Over the next 10 years, this scenario is unlikely to occur, but over time the probability of occurrence may increase somewhat due to cumulative effects of conservation measures done that benefit the plant. After 25 and 50 years, the best case scenario would be somewhat likely to occur.

74 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Table 5.4. Threats impacting each of the 6 factors affecting overall population resiliency for each Cirsium wrightii population under Scenario 2.Dark line separates Eastern (top) from Western (bottom) populations. Stressors to Population Resiliency Population Habitat Quantity Abundance Patches Reproduction Root Saturation Full Sun Drought effects less Restoration project to Santa Rosa Basin Grazing will decrease severe remove nonnative vegetation Seed collection/ Drought effects less Removal of nonnative Bitter Lake NWR translocation/ severe species propagation efforts Roswell Country Club Unsuitable habitat Drought effects less Drought effects less Drought effects less Drought effects less No oil and gas severe severe severe severe Minimal vegetation Blue Spring exploration No water diversion for No water diversion for No water diversion for No water diversion for encroachment agriculture agriculture agriculture agriculture Beryllium mine plan is Drought effects less Alamosa Springs abandoned severe

Drought effects less Tularosa Creek severe

Drought effects less Silver Springs No grazing will occur severe Drought effects less La Luz Canyon severe Restrictions on grazing Haynes Canyon Drought effects less Minimal vegetation Karr/Haynes Canyon Road maintenance population not severe encroachment conducted extirpated conservatively Lake Valley Unsuitable habitat May become suitable San Bernadino Cienega Slowly recovering for replanting Fronteras, MX Assumed extirpated Cerro Angostura, MX Assumed extirpated

75 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017

Table 5.5. Table described Cirsium wrightii population resiliency rankings under Scenario 2, based on the 6 factors affecting overall condition. Dark line separates the Eastern (top) from the Western (bottom) populations. Population Factors Habitat Factors Overall Condition Estimated Permanent Average Habitat Number of Final Current Population Occupied Abundance Reproduction Root Full Sun Current Quantity Patches Condition Habitat Saturation Condition Santa Rosa >50 ac High High Moderate High Moderate High High High Basin Bitter Lake >50 ac High High High Moderate Moderate High High High NWR Roswell Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated High Extirpated Extirpated Country Club Blue Spring >39.7 ac Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Alamosa >2.37 ac Low Low Low High Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Springs Tularosa Creek .07 ac Low Low Low Low* Low High Low Very Low

Silver Springs >.03 ac Low Low Low Moderate High Moderate Moderate Very Low

La Luz Canyon .06 ac Low Low Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Very Low Karr/Haynes >4.69 ac Low Moderate Low Moderate** Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Canyons Lake Valley Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Moderate Extirpated Extirpated San Bernardino Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Low Moderate Extirpated Extirpated Cienega, AZ Fronteras, MX Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Moderate Extirpated Extirpated Cerro Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Moderate Extirpated Extirpated Angostura, MX *For areas where cienegas have been dried out and succession to other ecosystems has begun, the assumption is made that initially sun exposure would be high, but as bushes and trees grow in these former wetlands, sunlight reaching ground will decrease to moderate and then to low exposure (except for the country club).

76 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 5.3.2. Representation

As discussed above, Cirsium wrightii has representation in the form of environmental and genetic diversity in (1) the eastern Pecos River and Santa Rosa Basin populations and (2) the western populations in the Sacramento Mountains and Alamosa Creek. The smaller western populations will remain extant under the Optimistic scenario, and two of the five populations will improve from low to moderate overall conditions, making a total of four moderate and one low condition population in the western group. Representation would be maintained as a result. The genetic diversity present in each area would persist, and the species would maintain its adaptive capacity.

5.3.3. Redundancy

Under the Optimistic scenario, redundancy would remain the same over time, with three eastern and five western populations extant, although overall condition of four of the eight populations would improve, thus helping secure redundancy (Figure 5.2). In the eastern populations, each of which has multiple springs, each spring is presumed to continue to be viable habitat, and therefore, the patch redundancy will be maintained.

77 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Figure 5.2. Map shows resiliency, representation, and redundancy of Cirsium wrightii under the Optimistic scenario based on information presented in Table 5.4 and 5.5. 78 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017

5.4. Scenario 3—Major Effects This scenario projects the condition of Cirsium wrightii if stressors on the population are increased. We expect a decrease in water availability, along with increased negative impacts from grazing, native and nonnative plants, oil and gas development, and mining. We assume that climate change effects will be in the moderate range of projections, with increased impacts of drought. Table 5.6 summarizes the stressors to resiliency under this scenario, and Table 5.7 provides the habitat and population factor rankings under this scenario, with overall condition summary.

5.4.1. Resiliency

Eastern New Mexico populations (north to south)

5.4.1.1. Santa Rosa: This population will experience increased impacts of decreased water availability via agriculture and urban development, along with increased impacts of ungulate grazing and competition from native and nonnative plants. The assumption is also made that drought, along with the exacerbating effects of climate change, are in the moderate range of projected values (with an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 3.0°F (2.0 °C) and increases in mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of 10-30 mm over 50 years).

Decreased water availability—Urban development in the area leads to increased wetland filling and mowing. Water diversions for agricultural purposes increase. The midrange effects of climate change result in higher temperatures, increase drought, and more variability in precipitation which decreases permanent root saturation to a low level and number of patches to a moderate level.

Ungulate grazing- Impacts from livestock grazing increase, leading to decreased in permanent root saturation and number of patches.

Native and nonnative plants—Nonnative plant removal has helped maintain moderate full sunlight conditions to the remaining patches, but this may not continue as funding may expire this year (Roth 2017d, pers. comm.).

We expect this population to decrease to a moderate level for number of patches as a result of negative impacts of stressors. With low levels of permanent root saturation as result of decreased water availability, this population will also maintain low levels of abundance and low levels of reproduction. This will lead to slightly reduced resiliency and this population will maintain a moderate overall condition.

79 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 5.4.1.2. Bitter Lake NWR: This population will experience increased impacts from decreased water availability as a result of water diversions for agriculture and grazing, along with increased impacts from competition with native and nonnative plants and effects of oil and gas development in the area. The assumption is also made that drought, along with the exacerbating effects of climate change, are in the moderate range of values(with an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 3.0°F (2.0 °C) and increases in mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of 10- 30 mm over 50 years).

Decreased water availability—Increasing water withdrawals and diversions from outside of the refuge reduce the soil saturation from a moderate condition to low condition. The midrange effects of climate change result in higher temperatures, increase drought, and more variability in precipitation which decreases permanent root saturation to a low level and habitat quantity declines.

Native and nonnative plants—Increasing water withdrawals and diversions from outside of the refuge, along with moderate climate change, which causes further drying of the cienegas, reduce the soil saturation from a moderate condition to low condition. Suitable habitat area drops to less than 20 ac because of water diversion and drought.

Oil and gas development, mining—Oil and gas development occurs in the surrounding area, and the potential for groundwater contamination exists.

We expect this population to demonstrate low levels of permanent root saturation with a declining habitat area, which in turn reduce the number of patches to a moderate level. We expect the overall condition of this population to be moderate.

5.4.1.3. Roswell Country Club: This location is expected to continue with the current land use. There are no known plans to restore this habitat, and thus, with no suitable habitat, this former population Cirsium wrightii will continue to be extirpated.

5.4.1.4. Blue Spring: This population will experience increased impacts from decreased water availability as a result of agriculture and urban development, along with increased impacts from competition with native and nonnative vegetation and the effects of oil and gas development. The assumption is also made that drought, along with the exacerbating effects of climate change, are in the moderate range of values (with an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 3.0°F (2.0 °C) and increases in mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of 10- 30 mm over 50 years).

Decreased water availability—Increased water withdrawals and diversion for agricultural and urban use, result in further drying of the wetland habitat along the spring run. In addition, the midrange effects of climate change result in higher temperatures, increase drought, and more variability in precipitation which decreases permanent root saturation to a low level and habitat quantity declines.

80 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017

Native and nonnative plants—Increased nonnative vegetation encroachment occurs, which reduces full sun to low levels.

Oil and gas development, mining—Further oil and gas development in the area results in some contamination of or reduction in water quality and quantity, which reduces permanent root saturation to low levels.

We expect this population to maintain a moderate level of habitat quantity, with low levels of permanent root saturation and full sun. We expect the resiliency of this population to decrease to low, with a low overall condition.

Western New Mexico populations (north to south)

5.4.1.5. Alamosa Springs: This population will experience some impacts for oil and gas development and mining. The assumption is also made that drought, along with the exacerbating effects of climate change, are in the moderate range of values (with an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 3.0°F (2.0 °C) and increases in mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of 10- 30 mm over 50 years) . The effects of climate change will also impact the frequency and severity of flooding in this area.

Decreased water availability—Midrange effects of climate change result in higher temperatures, increase drought, and more variability in precipitation which results in both drying of habitat and increased erosion due to more frequent flooding. These impacts reduce the habitat quantity and permanent root saturation to low levels.

Oil and gas development, mining—The planned beryllium mine project is commenced and operation begins which impacts size of habitat quantity.

We expect the population to decline in habitat quantity and permanent root saturation to low levels. The small population size contributes to maintaining a moderate level of reproduction. With the decline in habitat quantity, we expect the overall condition of this population to decrease to a very low level.

5.4.1.6. Tularosa Creek: This population will experience increased impacts from decreased water availability, along with impacts from native and nonnative plants. The assumption is also made that drought, along with the exacerbating effects of climate change, are in the moderate range of values (with an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 3.0°F (2.0 °C) and increases in mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of 10-30 mm over 50 years).

Decreased water availability—Ground water is depleted further as a result of unknown causes, such that soils are no longer saturated. Midrange effects of climate change result in higher temperatures, increase drought, and more variability in precipitation which results in drying of

81 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 habitat. These impacts completely eliminate permanent root saturation, along with eliminating habitat quantity.

Native and nonnative plants—Dense stands of Phragmites australis and Salix exigua have become dominant in this system, replacing Cirsium wrightii and reducing habitat quantity and full sun exposure.

We expect that this once large population will diminish rapidly, with habitat quantity eliminated and non-existent abundance, reproduction, permanent root saturation, and full sun exposure. We expect this population to become extirpated.

5.4.1.7. Silver Springs: This population will be impacted by increases in decreased water availability due to water diversion. The assumption is also made that drought, along with the exacerbating effects of climate change, are in the moderate range of values (with an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 3.0°F (2.0 °C) and increases in mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of 10-30 mm over 50 years).

Decreased water availability—Continued water diversion from this area will lead to decreased soil saturation. Midrange effects of climate change result in higher temperatures, increase drought, and more variability in precipitation which results in drying of habitat. These impacts reduce the permanent root saturation to low levels and eliminate habitat quantity at this location.

We expect this population to experience a reduction in permanent root saturation and an elimination of habitat quantity. We expect this population to become extirpated.

5.4.1.8. La Luz Canyon: This population will be impacted by increases in decreased water availability due to water diversion for domestic uses. The assumption is also made that drought, along with the exacerbating effects of climate change, are in the moderate range of values (with an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 3.0°F (2.0 °C) and increases in mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of 10-30 mm over 50 years).

Decreased water availability—The nearby City of Alamogordo, which receives some of its municipal water from the groundwater diverted from upper La Luz Canyon, continues to grow and requires more water withdrawals. Midrange effects of climate change result in higher temperatures, increase drought, and more variability in precipitation which results in drying of habitat. These impacts reduce the permanent root saturation to low levels.

We expect this very small habitat patch will dry up and be lost completely. With no suitable habitat, the plant becomes extirpated at this site.

5.4.1.9. Karr/Haynes Canyons: This population will be impacted by increases in decreased water availability, along with increases in ungulate grazing. The assumption is also made that drought, along with the exacerbating effects of climate change, are in the moderate range of values (with an increase in

82 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 3.0°F (2.0 °C) and increases in mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of 10-30 mm over 50 years).

Decreased water availability—Midrange effects of climate change result in higher temperatures, increase drought, and more variability in precipitation which results in drying of habitat. These impacts reduce the permanent root saturation to low levels.

Ungulate grazing- Cattle grazing in the wetland areas increases. This serves to decrease the number of patches to low levels. Additional roads and road maintenance further decrease available habitat

We expect the small Haynes Canyon subpopulation to become extirpated, while plants in the remaining Karr Canyon subpopulation will have a low abundance and reproduction. With even lower levels of habitat quantity and permanent root saturation, the overall condition of this population will decrease to very low with very low levels of resiliency.

5.4.1.10. Lake Valley: This former population continues to be extirpated. The habitat remains unsuitable for Cirsium wrightii and therefore it is unlikely that a population could be reestablished here.

Arizona and Mexico populations

5.4.1.11. San Bernardino, AZ: Continues to be extirpated; habitat remains unsuitable due to drought.

5.4.1.12. Mexico (Fronteras and Cerro Angostura): We make the assumption that conservation actions, habitat restoration, and replanting will not occur; thus the localities in Mexico will continue to be extirpated.

Resiliency Summary

The Major Effects scenario provides a reasonably likely snapshot of Cirsium wrightii’s condition over the next 50 years. Overall, there would be two populations in moderate condition, two in low condition, and one in very low condition. Three of the eight extant populations would become extirpated. Overall condition would have declined in two of the remaining populations. Over the next 10 years, this scenario somewhat likely to occur, but 25 years from now it is moderately likely to occur, and in 50 years it is highly likely to occur due to climate change, severe drought events, additional groundwater depletions and diversions, expanding oil and gas exploration, increasing livestock grazing, and increasing urban development with higher water demand by municipalities.

83 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Table 5.6. Threats impacting each of the 6 factors affecting overall population resiliency for each Cirsium wrightii population under Scenario 3. Dark line separates tern (top) from Western (bottom) populations. Stressors to Population Resiliency Population Habitat Quantity Abundance Patches Reproduction Root Saturation Full Sun Livestock grazing Livestock grazing Livestock grazing Livestock grazing Urban and agricultural Urban and agricultural continues Urban and agricultural Urban and agricultural Nonnative plant removals Santa Rosa Basin development development Urban and agricultural development development increase Climate change moderate Climate change moderate development Climate change moderate Increased water Increased water Increased water Increased vegetation Bitter Lake NWR withdrawals withdrawals withdrawals encroachment Climate change moderate Climate change moderate Climate change moderate Roswell Country Club Unsuitable habitat

Oil and gas development Oil and gas development Increased water Increased water Increased vegetation Blue Spring withdrawals withdrawals encroachment Climate change moderate Climate change moderate

Beryllium mine Floods increase in Alamosa Springs Small population and area Climate change moderate commenced intensity

Water loss due to Water loss due to unknown Water loss due to Increased vegetation Tularosa Creek unknown causes causes Small population and area unknown causes encroachment Climate change moderate Climate change moderate Climate change moderate Climate change reduces Climate change reduces root Climate change reduces Silver Springs Reduced root saturation to low saturation to low root saturation to low Increased water Increased water La Luz Canyon Habitat patch dries up withdrawals Small population and area withdrawals Climate change moderate Climate change moderate Ongoing grazing Ongoing grazing increases Increased vegetation increases Karr/Haynes Canyon Haynes Canyon population Climate change moderate Small population and area Climate change moderate encroachment Roads through habitat extirpated increase Lake Valley Unsuitable habitat

San Bernadino Cienega Unsuitable habitat

Fronteras, MX Assumed extirpated Cerro Angostura, MX Assumed extirpated

84 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017

Table 5.7. Cirsium wrightii population resiliency rankings under Scenario 3, based on the 6 factors affecting overall condition. Dark line separates Eastern (top) from Western (bottom) populations. Population Factors Habitat Factors Overall Condition Estimated Permanent Average Habitat Number of Final Current Population Occupied Abundance Reproduction Root Full Sun Current Quantity Patches Condition Habitat Saturation Condition Santa Rosa Basin <30 ac Moderate Moderate Low Low Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Bitter Lake <20 ac Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate NWR Roswell Country Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated High Extirpated Extirpated Club Blue Spring <30 ac Moderate Low Low Low* Low Low Low Low

Alamosa Springs <1 ac Low Low Low Moderate Low Moderate Low Very Low

Tularosa Creek Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Low Extirpated Extirpated

Silver Springs Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Low Moderate Extirpated Extirpated

La Luz Canyon Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Low Low Extirpated Extirpated Karr/Haynes <2 ac Low Low Low Low Low Moderate Low Low Canyons Lake Valley Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Low Extirpated Extirpated San Bernardino Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Low Low Extirpated Extirpated Cienega, AZ Fronteras, MX Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Low Extirpated Extirpated Cerro Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Low Extirpated Extirpated Angostura, MX

85 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 5.4.2. Representation

As noted above, Cirsium wrightii has representation in the form of differing phenotypes and genetic diversity in (1) the eastern Pecos River and Santa Rosa Basin populations, and (2) the western populations in the Sacramento Mountains and Alamosa Creek. The eastern populations are generally much larger in area, higher in abundance of mature plants, and in higher overall condition than the western populations. Under the Major Effects scenario, three of the current five western populations will become extirpated, leaving one population in low overall condition and one in very low condition. Some of the unique environmental and genetic representation of the western population will be reduced.

5.4.3. Redundancy

Under the Major Effects scenario, redundancy would be reduced in the western populations, with two becoming extirpated and three extant (Figure 5.3). In the eastern populations, each of which has multiple springs, some individual springs will likely be lost (dried up), so some of the patch redundancy will be lost and habitat quantity will decrease.

86 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Figure 5.3. Map shows resiliency, representation, and redundancy of Cirsium wrightii under the Optimistic scenario based on information presented in Table 5.6 and 5.7

87 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017

5.5 Scenario 4—Severe Effects

This scenario projects the condition of Cirsium wrightii populations under the assumption that stressors on the population are highly increased. In relation to Scenario 3, we expect a further decrease in water availability, along with further increased negative impacts from ungulate grazing, native and nonnative plants, oil and gas development, and mining. We assume that climate change effects will be on the higher end of projections, with increased impacts of drought. Table 5.8 summarizes the stressors to resiliency under this scenario, and Table 5.9 provides the habitat and population factor rankings under this scenario, with overall condition summary.

5.5.1. Resiliency

Eastern New Mexico populations (north to south)

5.5.1.1. Santa Rosa: This population will experience further increased impacts of decreased water availability as a result of agriculture and urban development, along with further increases impacts of ungulate razing and competition with native and nonnative plants. The assumption is made that drought, along with the exacerbating effects of climate change, are within the higher range of projected values (with an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 5.0°F (3.0 °C) and increases in mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of 30-80 mm over 50 years).

Decreased water availability—Increase in water withdrawals due to increased urban development occurs. With effects of climate change at the higher end of projections, temperatures will rise higher with greater increases in drought periods and more variability in precipitation which results in drying of habitat. These impacts reduce the habitat quantity and permanent root saturation to low levels, while decreasing number of patches to moderate levels.

Ungulate grazing—Livestock grazing increases greatly, with a greater loss of habitat resulting in a habitat quantity decrease to the moderate level.

Native and nonnative plants—Growth of nonnative plants increase canopy over habitat patches, restricting sunlight to a low level.

We expect this population to decrease in habitat quantity to a low level, with low levels of abundance and reproduction. With low levels of permanent root saturation and full sun, we expect resiliency to be even further reduced, leading to an overall low condition.

5.5.1.2. Bitter Lake NWR: This population will experience further increased impacts from decreased water availability as a result of water diversions for agriculture and grazing, along with greater increased impacts from competition with native and nonnative plants and effects of oil and gas development in the area. The assumption is made that drought, along with the exacerbating effects of climate change, are within the higher range of projected values (with an increase in mean daily maximum

88 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 temperature of approximately 5.0°F (3.0 °C) and increases in mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of 30-80 mm over 50 years).

Decreased water availability—Additional dewatering of the springs and seeps results from further increases in water withdrawals and diversions from outside of the refuge. With effects of climate change at the higher end of projections, temperatures will rise higher with greater increases in drought periods and more variability in precipitation which results in drying of habitat. These impacts reduce the habitat quantity, number of patches, and permanent root saturation to low levels.

Native and nonnative plants—Increasing canopy of nonnative vegetation reduces sunlight reaching Cirsium wrightii to a low level.

Oil and gas development, mining—Oil and gas development occurs to a greater extent outside the refuge, leading to further reductions in quantity and quality of spring flows.

We expect a reduction in population abundance and reproductive success to low levels. With decreases in habitat quantity and number of patches to low levels and decreases in permanent root saturation and full sun to low levels, we expect the overall condition of C. wrightii to become low, indicating a great loss in resiliency.

5.5.1.3. Roswell Country Club: This site is expected to continue with this land use. There are no known plans to restore this habitat, and thus, with no suitable habitat, this former population Cirsium wrightii will continue to be extirpated.

5.5.1.4. Blue Spring: This population will experience further increased impacts from decreased water availability as a result of agriculture and urban development, along with greater increased impacts from competition with native and nonnative vegetation and the effects of oil and gas development. The assumption is made that drought, along with the exacerbating effects of climate change, are within the higher range of projected values (with an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 5.0°F (3.0 °C) and increases in mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of 30-80 mm over 50 years) .

Decreased water availability—Water diversions for agriculture and urban development increase even more. With effects of climate change at the higher end of projections, temperatures will rise higher with greater increases in drought periods and more variability in precipitation which results in drying of habitat. These impacts reduce the habitat quantity and permanent root saturation to low levels.

Native and nonnative plants—Increase nonnative vegetation encroachment (including tall grass and trees) decreases habitat quantity and full sun to low levels.

Oil and gas development, mining—Further increased oil and gas development results in contamination of water and reduction of habitat quantity and quality.

89 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 We expect the population to decrease in habitat quantity to low levels, with accompanying decreases in permanent root saturation and full sun to low levels. We expect these impacts to result in overall low condition and low resiliency.

Western New Mexico populations (north to south)

5.5.1.5. Alamosa Springs: This population will experience greater impacts for oil and gas development and mining, along with increased impacts from decreased water availability and competition from native and nonnative plants. The assumption is also made that drought, along with the exacerbating effects of climate change, are on the higher end of values (with an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 5.0°F (3.0 °C) and increases in mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of 30-80 mm over 50 years). The effects of climate change will also impact the frequency and severity of flooding in this area.

Decreased water availability—Water withdrawals from the area for agriculture and grazing increase. High end effects of climate change result in much higher temperatures, greater severity of drought, and more variability in precipitation which results in both drying of habitat and increased erosion due to more frequent flooding. These impacts reduce permanent root saturation to low levels at this location, which eliminates numbers of patches and habitat quantity.

Native and nonnative plants—Nonnative vegetation encroachment becomes a problem, reducing full sun exposure to moderate levels.

Oil and gas development, mining—The planned beryllium mine project is commenced and operation begins, which impacts water quantity and quality. This results in the elimination of habitat.

We expect the population to drastically decline in habitat quantity, abundance, and number of patches, leading to elimination of these factors. The small population size contributes to a reduction in reproduction to low levels, along with a decrease in permanent root saturation to low levels and full sun exposure to moderate levels. With the decline in habitat quality characteristics and the accompanying elimination of habitat quantity, we expect this population to become extirpated.

5.5.1.6. Tularosa Creek: This population will experience further increased impacts from decreased water availability, along with greater impacts from native and nonnative plants. The assumption is also made that drought, along with the exacerbating effects of climate change, are on the higher end of values (with an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 5.0°F (3.0 °C) and increases in mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of 30-80 mm over 50 years) .

Decreased water availability—Ground water is depleted further as a result of unknown causes, such that soils are no longer saturated. Higher end effects of climate change result in higher temperatures, increase drought, and more variability in precipitation which results in drying of habitat. These impacts completely eliminate the habitat quantity and permanent root saturation. 90 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Native and nonnative plants—Dense stands of Phragmites australis and Salix exigua have become dominant in this system, replacing Cirsium wrightii and reducing full sun exposure.

We expect that this once large population will diminish rapidly. With non-existent habitat, this site no longer has the features necessary for the plant. We expect this population to continue to extirpated.

5.5.1.7. Silver Springs: This population will be impacted by further increases in decreased water availability due to water diversion. The assumption is also made that drought, along with the exacerbating effects of climate change, are on the higher end of values (with an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 5.0°F (3.0 °C) and increases in mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of 30-80 mm over 50 years).

Decreased water availability—Continued water diversion from this area will lead to the elimination of soil saturation. Higher end effects of climate change result in higher temperatures, increase drought, and more variability in precipitation which results in drying of habitat. These impacts completely eliminate the habitat quantity and permanent root saturation.

We expect this very small population to be greatly impacted by climate change and frequent severe drought, leading to an elimination of habitat quantity. With non-existent habitat, this site no longer has the features necessary for the plant. We expect this population to continue to be extirpated

5.5.1.8. La Luz Canyon: This population will be further impacted by increases in decreased water availability due to water diversion for domestic uses. The assumption is also made that drought, along with the exacerbating effects of climate change, are on the higher end of values (with an increase in mean daily maximum temperature of approximately 5.0°F (3.0 °C) and increases in mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of 30-80 mm over 50 years).

Decreased water availability—The nearby City of Alamogordo, which receives some of its municipal water from the groundwater diverted from upper La Luz Canyon, continues to grow and requires even more water withdrawals. Higher end effects of climate change result in higher temperatures, increase drought, and more variability in precipitation which results in drying of habitat. These impacts completely eliminate the habitat quantity and result in low permanent root saturation

We expect this very small habitat patch will continue to remain dry and be lost completely. With no suitable habitat, the plant continues to be extirpated at this site.

5.5.1.9. Karr/Haynes Canyons: This population will be impacted by further increases in decreased water availability, along with increases in ungulate grazing. The assumption is also made that drought, along with the exacerbating effects of climate change, are on the higher end of values (with an increase in mean

91 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 daily maximum temperature of approximately 5.0°F (3.0 °C) and increases in mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of 30-80 mm over 50 years).

Decreased water availability—Higher end effects of climate change result in higher temperatures, increase drought, and more variability in precipitation which results in drying of habitat. These impacts completely eliminate the habitat quantity and result in low permanent root saturation

Ungulate grazing—Cattle grazing in the wetland areas increases. This serves to decrease the habitat quantity. Additional roads and road maintenance further decrease available habitat.

We expect the habitat quantity at this site to be eliminated. With non-existent habitat, this site no longer has the features necessary for the plant. We expect this population to become extirpated.

5.5.1.10. Lake Valley:

This former population continues to be extirpated. The habitat remains unsuitable for Cirsium wrightii and therefore it is unlikely that a population could be reestablished here.

Arizona and Mexico populations

5.5.1.11. San Bernardino, AZ: Continues to be extirpated; habitat remains unsuitable due to drought.

5.5.1.12. Mexico (Fronteras and Cerro Angostura): We make the assumption that conservation actions, habitat restoration, and replanting will not occur; thus the localities in Mexico will continue to be extirpated.

Resiliency Summary

The Severe Effects scenario provides a snapshot of Cirsium wrightii’s condition over the next 50 years. Overall, three of the eight currently extant populations would continue, all of them in low overall condition and subject to extirpation. All five western populations would become extirpated. Over the next 10 years, this scenario is unlikely, but 25 years from now it is somewhat likely to occur, and in 50 years it is moderately likely to occur due to major climate change, frequent severe drought events, extreme groundwater depletions and diversions for agricultural and municipal use, ongoing oil and gas extraction, increasing and less restricted livestock grazing, and ever increasing urban development.

92 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Table 5.8. Threats impacting each of the 6 factors affecting overall population resiliency for each Cirsium wrightii population under Scenario 4.Dark line separates Eastern (top) from Western (bottom) populations. Stressors to Population Resiliency Population Habitat Quantity Abundance Patches Reproduction Root Saturation Full Sun Livestock grazing Livestock grazing Livestock grazing Livestock grazing increases increases Urban and agricultural increases increases Nonnative plant growth Santa Rosa Basin Urban and agricultural Urban and agricultural development increase Urban and agricultural Urban and agricultural increase development increase development increase Climate change extreme development development increase Climate change extreme Climate change extreme Oil and gas development Increased water Increased water Increased water Increased water Increased water Increased vegetation Bitter Lake NWR withdrawals withdrawals withdrawals withdrawals withdrawals encroachment Climate change extreme Climate change extreme Climate change extreme Climate change extreme Climate change extreme Roswell Country Club Unsuitable habitat Oil and gas development Oil and gas development Oil and gas development increases increases Increased water Increased vegetation Blue Spring Increased water Increased water withdrawals encroachment withdrawals withdrawals Climate change extreme Climate change extreme Climate change extreme Increased water Increased water Beryllium mine Floods increase in Small population and Increased vegetation Alamosa Springs withdrawals withdrawals commenced intensity area encroachment Climate change extreme Climate change extreme Water loss due to Water loss due to Water loss due to unknown causes Small population and Increased vegetation Tularosa Creek Population extirpated unknown causes unknown causes Climate change extreme area encroachment Climate change extreme Climate change extreme Unsuitable habitat Small population and Silver Springs Climate change extreme Climate change extreme area Increased water Increased water Small population and La Luz Canyon Habitat patch dries up withdrawals withdrawals area Climate change severe Climate change severe Ongoing grazing Ongoing grazing Increased water Increased water Increased vegetation increases Small population and Karr/Haynes Canyon increases withdrawals withdrawals encroachment Roads through habitat area Population extirpated Climate change severe Climate change severe increase Lake Valley Unsuitable habitat

San Bernadino Cienega Unsuitable habitat

Fronteras, MX Assumed extirpated Cerro Angostura, MX Assumed extirpated

93 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Table 5.9. Cirsium wrightii population resiliency rankings under Scenario 4, based on the 6 factors affecting overall condition. Dark line separates Eastern (top) from Western (bottom) populations. Population Factors Habitat Factors Overall Condition Estimated Permanent Average Habitat Number of Final Current Population Occupied Abundance Reproduction Root Full Sun Current Quantity Patches Condition Habitat Saturation Condition Santa Rosa Basin <20 ac Low Moderate Low Low Low Low Low Low Bitter Lake <15 ac Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low NWR Roswell Country Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated High Extirpated Extirpated Club Blue Spring <20 ac Low Low Low Low* Low Low Low Low

Alamosa Springs Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Low Moderate Extirpated Extirpated

Tularosa Creek Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Low Extirpated Extirpated

Silver Springs Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Low Moderate Extirpated Extirpated

La Luz Canyon Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Low Low Extirpated Extirpated Karr/Haynes Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Low Low Extirpated Extirpated Canyons Lake Valley Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Low Extirpated Extirpated San Bernardino Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Low Low Extirpated Extirpated Cienega, AZ Fronteras, MX Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Low Extirpated Extirpated Cerro Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Low Extirpated Extirpated Angostura, MX

94 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 5.5.2. Representation

In the Severe Effects scenario, none of the western populations are predicted to remain extant. Therefore, the unique environmental and genetic representation of the western population would be most likely lost altogether.

5.5.3. Redundancy

Under the Severe Effects scenario, redundancy would be greatly reduced, with only one of the current 5 western populations remaining extant, and it would be in low overall condition and subject to possible extirpation. The three current eastern populations would be expected to continue, though with all three in low overall condition and also subject to possible extirpation (Figure 5.4). Further in the eastern populations, more of the multiple springs at each location will dry up, further reducing patch redundancy and decreasing habitat quantity.

95 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Figure 5.4. Map shows resiliency, representation, and redundancy of Cirsium wrightii under the Optimistic scenario based on information presented in Table 5.8 and 5.9 96 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017

5.6. Status Assessment Summary

We used the best available information to forecast the likely future condition of Cirsium wrightii. Our goal was to describe the viability of the species in a manner that will address the needs of the species in terms of resiliency, representation, and redundancy. We considered the possible future condition of the species. We considered a range of potential scenarios that we think are important influences on the status of the species. Our results describe a range of possible conditions in terms of how many and where C. wrightii populations are likely to persist into the future (Table 5.10).

Table 5.10. Table shows Cirsium wrightii population conditions in 25-50 years under each scenario. Dark line separates Eastern (top) from Western (bottom) populations. Scenario 1 Scenario 4 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Current Continuing Severe Population Optimistic Major Effects conditions Current Effects

Condition Santa Rosa Moderate Moderate High Moderate Low Basin Bitter Lake Moderate Moderate High Moderate Low NWR Roswell Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Country Club

Blue Spring Moderate Low Moderate Low Low

Alamosa Low Low Low Very Low Extirpated Springs Tularosa Very Low Extirpated Very Low Extirpated Extirpated Creek Silver Springs Very Low Very Low Very Low Extirpated Extirpated La Luz Very Low Very Low Very Low Extirpated Extirpated Canyon Karr/Haynes Low Low Low Low Extirpated canyons Lake Valley Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated San Bernardino Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Cienega, AZ Fronteras, Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated MX Cerro Angostura Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Spring, MX

97 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017

98 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Cirsium wrightii faces a variety of risks related to ground and surface water depletion, drought and climate change, impacts of livestock and ungulate grazing, and nonnative species invasion through nonnative grass planting and trees becoming established (creating competition for nutrients and water and reducing available sunlight and water availability). The species occupies relatively small areas of seeps, springs, and wetland habitat in an arid region plagued by drought and ongoing and future water withdrawals. The species’ highly specific requirements of saturated soils with surface or subsurface water flow make it particularly vulnerable.

These risks play a large role in the future viability of C. wrightii. If populations lose resiliency, they are more vulnerable to extirpation, with resulting losses in representation and redundancy. Given our uncertainty regarding the species’ persistence in New Mexico and future ground and surface water quality and availability, in relation to water use, drought, and climate change, we have forecasted what C. wrightii may have in terms of resiliency, redundancy, and representation under four future possible scenarios, in which we made the following assumptions about stressors to the populations.

Under scenario 1— Continuing Current Condition, we would expect C. wrightii’s viability to be characterized by some loss of resiliency. No populations would be in high overall condition, two would be in moderate condition, three would be in low condition, two would be in very low condition, and one would become extirpated. The five extirpated sites would continue to be extirpated. This scenario assumes climate change will be moderate, in the middle range of forecasts, and thus drought events will become somewhat more frequent or severe. Groundwater extraction and spring diversion will continue. These factors in combination will reduce availability of the important resource of saturated soils. Representation (eastern and western phenotypes) and redundancy (3 eastern populations and 4 western) would continue at slightly lower levels to those existing currently.

Under scenario 2—Optimistic, we would expect Cirsium wrightii’s viability to be characterized by higher levels of resiliency. All eight currently extant populations would be able to maintain or improve their current condition, as a result of targeted management at Bitter Lake NWR and potential habitat restoration (natural and man-assisted) and reintroduction at three sites. We anticipate all of the current populations to persist and perhaps even experience range expansion. Overall, there would be two in high condition, one in moderate condition, two in low condition, and three in very low condition. Representation (eastern and western phenotypes) and redundancy (3 eastern populations and 5 western) would continue at similar levels to those existing currently.

Under scenario 3—Major Effects, we would expect Cirsium wrightii’s viability to be characterized by lower levels of resiliency, representation, and redundancy than it has currently. Two populations would be in moderate condition, two would be in low condition, and one would be in very low condition. Three of the current five western populations will become extirpated, leaving the two remaining populations in low and very low condition. Some of the unique genetic representation of the western phenotype will be reduced, and redundancy will be decreased.

99 Cirsium wrightii SSA Report October 2017 Under scenario 4—Severe Effects, we would expect Cirsium wrightii’s viability to be characterized by lower levels of resiliency, representation, and redundancy than it has currently. Overall, three of the eight currently extant populations would continue, all of them in low overall condition and subject to extirpation. None of the western populations are predicted to remain extant. Therefore, the unique genetic representation of the western phenotype would most likely be lost under this scenario. The three current eastern populations would be expected to continue, though with all three in low overall condition and also subject to possible extirpation.

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