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Automotive NEUTRAL ↔ Sector Update 23 September 2019 Automotive NEUTRAL Waiting for a Better Promotional Campaign ↔ By Wan Mustaqim Bin Wan Ab Aziz l [email protected] We maintain our NEUTRAL rating on the AUTOMOTIVE sector . According to the Mala ysian Automotive Association (MAA), TIV for August 2019 registered sales of 51,148 units (+1% MoM, -22% YoY). MoM sales growth was flat with only Proton recording significantly higher MoM growth backed by its popular Proton X70, and further supported by face-lifted Proton Saga, Iriz, and Persona. Meanwhile, YoY sales plunged due to the high base effect from the historic tax holiday from 1st June 2018 to 31 st August 2018. Only Perodua recorded positive YoY growth due to a lower base last year arising from supply constraint for its popular all-new Myvi. 8M19 reported TIV of 398,325 units (-6%), within our expectation, at 66% of our 2019 TIV target of 600,000 units. Sales volume for September 2019 is expected to be weaker compared to August 2019 due to the spate of public holidays but stronger YoY due to tepid demand post tax-holiday last year. Our sector top -pick is BAUTO (OP; TP: RM2.75) which offers a steady dividend yield of 7.2 %. August 2019 registered sales of 51,148 units (+1% MoM, -22% YoY). MoM sales growth was flat with only Proton recording higher MoM growth backed by its popular Proton X70, and further supported by face-lifted Proton Saga, Iriz, and Persona. Meanwhile, YoY sales plunged due to the higher base effect from the historic tax holiday which started from 1st June 2018 to 31 st August 2018. Only Perodua recorded positive YoY growth due to a lower base last year arising from supply constraint for its popular All-new Myvi. Taking a detailed look at the passenger vehicles segment (+1% MoM, -16% YoY) , overall August passenger car sales were flat MoM as consumers held back for new launches and better year-end promotional campaign. On the other hand, the YoY performance was unable to match last year’s historic tax holiday sales. The highest MoM gainer for the month was Proton (+6% MoM, -4% YoY) backed by its popular Proton X70 (30k bookings, 20.4k delivered) with 1,909 units sold (21% of August sales), and further supported by face-lifted Proton Saga, Iriz, and Persona. On the other hand, Perodua was the only gainer YoY (+1% MoM, +13% YoY) which has shifted their sales focus toward the all-new Perodua ARUZ (25k bookings, 20.3k delivered) and recorded 2,421 units sold (12% of August sales). Nissan suffered the worst sales both MoM and YoY (-11% MoM, -48% YoY) due to dearth of all-new model launches to spur demand as well as lower traction from the face-lifted Nissan X-Trail. Toyota sales (- 2% MoM, -28% YoY) was cushioned by the all-new Toyota Vios, all-new Toyota Yaris, and Toyota Hilux, which comprised 70% of UMW Toyota sales, while Honda (+1% MoM, -30% YoY) was still awaiting pricing approval to launch its new model. Expecting weaker September 2019 sales. Sales volume for September 2019 is expected to be weaker compared to August 2019 from the spate of public holidays (Awal Muharram, Agong’s Birthday, and Malaysia Day), but stronger YoY due to the tepid demand post tax-holiday last year. Overall, car sales will be supported by the higher delivery of new models, including the all-new Perodua ARUZ (entry-level SUV segment), Honda HR-V facelift (includes Hybrid), all-new Toyota Vios, all-new Toyota Yaris, all-new Proton X70, face-lifted Proton Persona, Iriz, and Saga (X70 unique features), and face-lifted Nissan X-Trail. We maintain our 2019 TIV target at 600,000 units (+0.2%). We maintain our 2019 TIV target at 600,000 units, in line with MAA’s target. We believe the absence of sales-boosting event such as the one-off 2018 tax holiday will be offset by exciting new launches in 2019 and we have also factored in possible delays in new car launches given the backlog of pricing approvals from the authorities (3-5 months), and tepid purchasing power. MITI has decided to increase the frequency of the monthly meetings held by the Automotive Business Development Committee (ABDC), chaired by MITI, from once to twice a month to speed up the vehicles pricing approval. On the other hand, MITI has established a trade and advisory council (TIAC), which will discuss issues on subjects ranging from foreign direct investment (FDI) and domestic direct investment (DDI) to the National Automotive Policy (NAP) in its upcoming meetings (with a minimum of four meetings/year). For stocks (i.e. DRBHCOM) that have deviated from the rating definition, we make no changes to our call and TP for now, pending further corporate development and re-rating catalysts. National marques continued to be in the lead. Perodua continued to lead the pack with a higher market share of 41% (8M18: 37%), with marginal sales growth (+2% YoY) driven by the all-new Perodua Myvi, and the all-new Perodua ARUZ. This was followed by Honda and Proton at the same position. Honda registered lower market share of 15% (8M18: 18%) with a lower sales growth (-21% YoY) as consumers held back purchases expecting new models in 2H19, which was delayed due to pricing approval issues. Proton (+37% YoY) gained higher market share of 15% (8M18: 11%) owing to the higher delivery of the all-new Proton X70, and also supported by the existing face-lifted line-ups. Drifting further down the list, Toyota sales volume plunged (-15% YoY) with a lower market share of 11% (8M18: 12%) as Toyota recorded the highest sales volume in history during the tax holiday last year. However, it was cushioned by its best-selling all-new Toyota Vios, all-new Toyota Yaris, and Toyota Hilux. Meanwhile, Nissan (- 25% YoY) saw its market share lowered to 3% (8M18: 4%), due to the lack of new volume-driven model launches; whereas Mazda recorded lower sales (-14% YoY), with unchanged market share at 2% (8M18: 2%) after it fully delivered the discounted all-new CX- 5 in May 2019, and is counting on face-lifted CX-5 and all-new CX-8 to push 2H19 volume sales. BAUTO (OP; TP: RM2.75) is our sector top pick : We like the stock or its: (i) expected earnings recovery from the stream of all- new models, especially from its popular, face-lifted/turbo Mazda CX-5, (ii) superior margins, above industry peers (average profit margin of c.9% vs. peers of c.2%), and (iii) steady dividend yield of 7.2%. BAUTO will launch its popular face-lifted and turbo variants of CX-5 on 30 th Sept, and all-new Mazda CX-8 on 1 st Oct. BAUTO is also looking to bring in the all-new CX-30 (CBU from Thailand) and face-lifted CX-3 (CBU) in Dec 2019. Our TP is based on 13x CY20E EPS (at -0.5SD of its 3-year Fwd historical PER). PP7004/02/2013(031762) Page 1 of 6 Automotive Sector Update 23 September 2019 August 2019’s sales for passenger and commercial vehicles according to top marques Marques(units) Aug-19 Aug-18 Jul-19 % m-o-m % y-o-y YTD 2019 YTD 2018 % y-o-y Passenger Perodua 20,070 17,804 19,924 1% 13% 161,776 158,732 2% Proton 9,127 9,501 8,590 6% -4% 61,235 44,709 37% Honda 7,577 10,789 7,534 1% -30% 59,371 74,951 -21% Toyota 4,114 5,706 4,217 -2% -28% 31,999 34,406 -7% Nissan 1,307 2,530 1,476 -11% -48% 10,933 13,989 -22% Mazda 1,000 1,918 998 0% -48% 8,405 9,595 -12% Others 3,607 7,540 3,450 5% -52% 30,137 41,541 -27% Total 46,802 55,788 46,189 1% -16% 363,856 377,923 -4% Commercial Toyota 1,301 3,089 1,443 -10% -58% 10,327 15,228 -32% Isuzu 658 1,863 727 -9% -65% 5,520 7,470 -26% Nissan 400 971 527 -24% -59% 3,160 4,781 -34% Mitsubishi 502 1,039 426 18% -52% 3,817 4,254 -10% Hino 437 688 494 -12% -36% 3,675 3,929 -6% Mazda 3 30 4 -25% -90% 91 249 -63% Others 1,045 2,082 1,043 0% -50% 7,879 9,781 -19% Total 4,346 9,762 4,664 -7% -55% 34,469 45,692 -25% TIV 51,148 65,550 50,853 1% -22% 398,325 423,615 -6% Source: MAA, Kenanga Research Total Industry Volume from August 2014 to August 2019 Units 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 Passenger cars Commercial vehicles Source: MAA, Kenanga Research PP7004/02/2013(031762) Page 2 of 6 Automotive Sector Update 23 September 2019 Market share of top marques (Passenger) in Aug’ 2019 Market share of top non-national marques (Passenger) Others Mazda Others 16% 8% Nissan 2% 3% Mazda 6% Perodua Honda 43% Toyota Hyundai 43% 9% 2% Volkswagen Honda 3% 16% Nissan 7% Toyota Proton 23% 19% Source: MAA, Kenanga Research Market share of 8M19 (Passenger and Commercial) Market share of 8M18 (Passenger and Commercial) Others Others Mazda 13% 16% 2% Mazda Perodua Perodua Nissan 2% 37% 3% 41% Nissan Toyota 4% 11% Toyota 12% Honda 15% Honda Proton Proton 18% 11% 15% Source: MAA, Kenanga Research Market share of top marques (Commercial), August 2019 Others 24% Toyota 30% Mazda 0% Hino 10% Mitsubishi Isuzu 12% 15% Nissan 9% Source: MAA, Kenanga Research PP7004/02/2013(031762) Page 3 of 6 Automotive Sector Update 23 September 2019 New Launches 2019 Perodua ARUZ (RM73-78k)- launched 15 th Jan’ 2019 Honda HR-V facelift (RM109-125k)-16 th Jan’ 19 Toyota Vios (RM77-87k)-24 th Jan’ 2019 Toyota Yaris (RM72-84k)-19 th April 2019 2019 Toyota Alza facelift Face-lifted variants of Proton IRIZ, Persona, Saga (RM80-88k), 17 th May 2019 Mazda 3 (Sedan & Hatchback)- 17th July 2019 (CBU) Mazda CX-8 (CKD) – 1st October 2019 Source: Various Sources PP7004/02/2013(031762) Page 4 of 6 Automotive Sector Update 23 September 2019 Peer Comparison Core Earnings ROE Net Div Name Revenue Growth PER (x) - Core Earnings PBV (x) Last Price Market Cap Shariah Current Growth (%) Yld (%) Target Price Rating (RM) (RM'm) Compliant FYE 1-Yr.
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