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Bharat Dynamics Ltd INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH Bharat Dynamics Ltd A large order pipeline just does not cut it 12 March 2018 INDIA | DEFENCE | IPO Note Bharat Dynamics (BDL) is a government‐owned company, engaged in the manufacturing of AVOID missiles and torpedoes. In FY17, its revenues/EBITDA/PAT was Rs 46.3/8.3/6.6bn, translating into 17.9% EBITDA and 14.4% PAT margins. BDL has an order book of Rs 105bn COMPANY DATA as of January 2018, implying a book‐to‐bill of 2.2x FY17 revenues. ISSUE OPENS 13th March 2018 ISSUE CLOSES 15th March 2018 About Bharat Dynamics Ltd (BDL) PRE‐ ISSUE EQUITY SHARES 183.3mn Incorporated in 1970, BDL is a government‐owned company with 'Miniratna (Category‐1)' PRICE BAND Rs 413 – 428 22.5mn status. It is engaged in the manufacturing of Surface to Air missiles (SAMs), Anti‐Tank Guided NO OF SHARES OFFERED ISSUE SIZE Rs 9.2‐9.5bn missiles (ATGMs), underwater weapons (Torpedoes), launchers, countermeasures and test MKT CAP Rs 78.4bn equipment. Currently, it is the sole manufacturer and supplier for SAMs, ATGMs and torpedoes to the Indian armed forces. IPO rationale: Offer for sale by government The IPO is an offer for sale by the government to raise Rs 9.5bn and dilution of shareholding STANDALONE FINANCIALS by 12.3%. At the IPO price band of Rs 413‐428, the stock trades at 12x FY17 PE on an Y/E Mar, Rs bn FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Net Sales 46.30 44.94 43.49 28.17 adjusted equity base. EBIDTA 8.29 8.23 8.55 4.65 Net Profit 6.65 6.22 6.56 4.93 Key positives EPS, Rs. 36.3 33.9 35.8 26.9 • BDL is currently the sole manufacturer for SAMs, ATGMs and torpedoes in India. It is P/E@Rs 428 11.8 12.6 12.0 15.9 capable of addressing 54% of India’s missile demand over the next 10 years (2017‐26). • It benefits from a strong relationship with DRDO. BDL is part of the design and development stage of a project giving it a competitive advantage against other players. • BDL is expanding its product base in SAM’s and Torpedoes. Over the next ten years its revenues will be spread across multiple projects against the current scenario wherein Akash is a singular major project in its order book. • Large opportunity pipeline of Rs 440bn FY19‐22 against current order book of Rs 105bn. Key risks • Projects that BDL is nominated to win over the next five years are large. Case in point VSHORAD is a $ 5bn project (including the share of foreign OEM); MRSAM is $ 2.5bn and Akash ($ 2bn). These should be prone to delays given their size. • Share of revenues from high margin Akash missile program is expected to decline over FY18‐20. In fact we expect BDL’s earnings to de‐grow by 9% over FY17‐20E. • New projects such as VSHORAD and MRSAM are transfer of technology projects; initial profitability on these projects should be low. Our view: AVOID In our view, stocks with a single point investment thesis of a large order pipeline will not grab investor interest if those orders are not be accompanied by commensurate profitability. As is the case with BDL. We estimate BDL’s order book to grow by 3.7x over FY19‐22 on large orders such as VSHORADS, MRSAM and Akash. However in the near term based on its existing order book BDL’s revenues/EBITDA/PAT would decline by 15%/18%/9% over FY17‐20E. Additionally, even as BDL is expected to expand its product profile from single to multiple products the margin profile of new projects is expected to be materially lower than the current cyclically high margins of the company. Jonas Bhutta (+ 9122 6246 4119) [email protected] At IPO price of Rs 428 BDL trades at 16x FY20E PE. BDL’s valuation is in line with its listed Vikram Rawat (+ 9122 6246 4120) global peers despite its smaller size and lack of research capabilities. We see downside risks [email protected] overshadowing any positives of large order inflows whose benefits both in terms of execution and margin should be back ended. Hence AVOID. Page | 1 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH BHARAT DYNAMICS LTD IPO NOTE About the IPO • Rs 9.2‐9.5bn issue of 22.5mn shares at a price band of Rs 413‐428 per share • Issue includes offer for sale by promoter 'Government of India (GoI)' • Market capitalisation at price band: Rs 75.7‐78.4bn. • Post‐issue, GoI's shareholding to reduce to 87.8% from 100%. Bharat Dynamics ‐ Issue details Share holding pattern post‐issue ISSUE OPENS 13th March 2018 Others ISSUE CLOSES 15th March 2018 12.25% PRE‐ ISSUE EQUITY SHARES 183.3mn ‐ LOWER BAND Rs 413 ‐ UPPER BAND Rs 428 PRICE BAND Rs 413 ‐ 428 ‐ FRESH ISSUE Nil ‐ OFS 22.5mn NO OF SHARES OFFERED FOR SALE 22.5mn RETAIL AND EMPLOYEE SHARE (%) 36.3% RETAIL DISCOUNT (RS) Rs 10 ISSUE SIZE Rs 9.2‐9.5bn GOI POST‐ ISSUE EQUITY SHARES 183.28mn 87.75% MKT CAP Rs 75.7‐78.4bn Source: RHP, PhillipCapital India Research Allocation of shares offered in the IPO Shares (mn) % of Net/gross issue Retail 7.70 35.0% Non‐institutional 3.30 15.0% ‐ Mutual fund 0.55 2.5% ‐ Other QIBs 10.45 47.5% QIBs 11.00 50.0% Net Issue 21.99 98.0% Employees 0.46 2.0% Total Issue 22.45 100.0% Source: RHP, PhillipCapital India Research Page | 2 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH BHARAT DYNAMICS LTD IPO NOTE About the company Bharat Dynamics Ltd (BDL), incorporated in 1970, is a government‐owned company with 'Miniratna (category‐1)' status. It is engaged in the manufacturing of Surface to Air missiles (SAMs), Anti‐Tank Guided missiles (ATGMs), underwater weapons (Torpedoes), launchers, countermeasures and test equipment as well as the refurbishment and extension of the life of missiles. It is currently the sole manufacturer for SAMs, ATGMs and torpedoes in India and also the sole supplier of SAMs and ATGMs to the Indian armed forces. It is also the co‐development partner with the DRDO for the next generation of ATGMs and SAMs. BDL currently has three manufacturing facilities in Hyderabad, Bhanur and Vishakhapatnam. It is also in the process of setting up two new manufacturing facilities at (1) Ibrahimpatnam, Telangana to manufacture SAMs and (2) Amravati, Maharashtra for Very Short Range Air Defence Missiles (VSHORADMs). BDL Manufacturing facilities Location Products Operational Hyderabad, Telangana SAMs, Milan 2T ATGMs, countermeasures, launchers and test equipment Bhanur, Telangana Konkurs – M ATGMs, INVAR (3 UBK 20) ATGMs, launchers & spares Vishakhapatnam, Andhra Light weight torpedoes, C‐303 anti torpedo system, countermeasures & Pradesh spares Under planning Ibrahimapatnam, Telangana SAMs Amravati, Maharashtra Very Short Range Air Defence Missiles (VSHORADMs) Source: RHP, PhillipCapital India Research Details of the infrastructure facilities at each of the three manufacturing units Hyderabad > 6 Axis CNC machines > X‐Ray building > Robotic welding machine R&D facilities > Electron beam welding machine > Aerodynamics / high performance computing facility for CFD > 3D measuring machine > Computer aided design > CNC flow forming machine > Optics and lasers spectral radiometry > 5‐Axis CNC machining center > RF lab > Combined altitude temperature and humidity chamber > Embedded systems design > Vibration test facility > Simulation and analysis facility > Vacuum furnace for heat treatment > Electronic circuit design and simulation. > Explosive storage and magazine building > Counter measures dispensing system lab > Unification / automation of cold and hot conditioning of missiles / sub‐ > Missile simulation mode systems including thermal shock capability. > Spectro Radiometer Bhanur > Robotic welding machine > Armour room facility for high pressure testing > 3D measuring machine > Hybrid micro circuits in place of conventional SMD technology. > Tooled up CNC Turn‐mill center for Outer gimble of Konkurs‐M ATGM > Thin film hybrid technology for components of INVAR (3 UBK 20) ATGM > Mill turn with multitask CNC machine. > Vacuum furnace for heat treatment > X‐Ray machine > Explosive storage and magazine Building > Advanced universal testing machine > PLC based automatic loading & progression of jobs in electro plating > CNC flow forming machine production line > Environmental stress screening chamber > Introduction of lithium based high reliable thermal batteries > Vibration test facility > Flow forming in place of deep drawing process. Vishakhapatnam > Vibration test facility > Pressure testing tank Source: RHP, PhillipCapital India Research Page | 3 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH BHARAT DYNAMICS LTD IPO NOTE BDL Products portfolio BDL Products Counter‐ Decoy Te s t SAMs ATGMs Tor pe doe s Launchers measures Systems Equipment Chadd & flare MILAN 2T, Launchers for Health based air Akash Konkurs‐M, Light Konkus‐M & Submarine fired monitoring defence Missiles INVAR (3 UBK Torpedoes MILAN 2T decoys equipment for systems, C‐303 20) ATGMs ATGMs topedo decoys Source: RHP, PhillipCapital India Research Surface to Air Missiles Akash SAM is an all weather area defense system which can engage multiple targets simultaneously. It can target helicopters, fighter aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles. In addition to Akash SAM, BDL will also supply the ground support system and construct infrastructure facilities for the Akash SAM. BDL is currently supplying Akash SAMs to MoD for Indian Army. LRSAM & MSRSAM is a high response quick reaction vertical launch supersonic missile to neutralise enemy aerial threats such as missiles, aircraft, guided bombs and helicopters. BDL is currently supplying LRSAMs and MRSAMs to MoD for Indian Army and Indian Navy respectively. Anti‐Tank Guided Missiles Milan 2T ATGM is a man portable second generation ATGM with a tandem warhead to destroy tanks. It can target both moving and stationary targets. BDL is currently supplying Milan 2T ATGMs to MoD for Indian Army.
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