Afghanistan Post 2014: The Pashtun Factor Wagah Attack: Reviving Terrorism

India’s Act East Policy US Rebalance to Asia: An Assessment

and many more ….

Published By : Vivekananda International Foundation 3, San Martin Marg, Chanakyapuri, New Delhi – 110021, [email protected], www.vifindia.org

Contents

Imperatives of Defence Modernisation and EDITOR’S NOTE 3 - Indigenisation 59 CENTRE STAGE - Vice Admiral (Retd) Raman Puri

Afghanistan Post-2014: the Pashtun Factor ECONOMY 4 - Prabhat P. Shukla A Perspective on India’s Approach to the G20 Summit 2014 NATION 62 - Brig (Retd) Vinod Anand & Sobha Menon

Swachh Bharat Is Not Mardi Gras 103 14 - Dr M N Buch NEIGHBOURHOOD

DEBATE Wagah attack: New Groups Reviving 107 Terrorist Activities in Pakistan 69 Foreign Archaeological Collaborations and India’s Security Concerns 21 - Gaurav Dixit

- Dr Dilip K Chakrabarti EVENTS

DIPLOMACY Vimarsha on Teacher’s Day 74 India’s ‘Act East’ Policy: A Perspective 25 Book launch: “Decoding India’s Defence - Brig (Retd) Vinod Anand & Dr. Rahul Mishra procurement: An Analysis of Defence 76 Procurement Procedure 2013” US Rebalance to Asia – An Assessment

33 79 - Dr. Harinder Sekhon Round Table on PM Modi’s US Visit

Visit of Vietnamese Prime Minister to India Round Table on Cyber Security 80 and the Evolving Intensification of Strategic RTD on China-India Ties Post Xi Visit 84 Partnership 41 Vimarsha – Bahudha in the Post 9/11 - Maj Gen (Retd) P K Chakravorty 86 World DEFENCE Talk by UK’s Secretary of State for Defence, India-China Boundary: Border Line, Claim Rt. Hon. Michael Fallon MP 88 Line and the Line of Actual Control 46

- Lt. Gen (Retd) Gautam Banerjee VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 2

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in the articles published in the e-journal are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Vivekananda International Foundation Editor’s Note

With repeated ceasefire violations by Pakistan, increased incursions along the India-China border and the urgent need to enhance India’s military capabilities in consonance with its growing stature as a global power, the nation has been looking forward to the appointment of a competent and fully devoted Defence Minister to take up the challenges.

In his latest cabinet expansion cum reshuffle, Prime Minister Narendra Modi appropriately responded to this sentiment and assigned this onerous task to Manohar Parrikar, a highly qualified technocrat with impeccable integrity and administrative experience as the Chief Minister of Goa. Parrikar is not only acclaimed for his honesty but also his ability to take bold and fast decisions on critical issues.

In his first interaction with the media back in his home state, Parrikar, equally reputed for his plain speaking, aptly observed that most of the defence deals executed during the previous regime had got "stuck" due to lobbying, vested interest and kickbacks involved. He also underlined the need to remove procedural bottlenecks to ensure that the procurement process is not affected.

With a full-fledged Defence Minister at the helm of affairs, one sincerely hopes that issues such as procurement and indigenization, critical to further enhancing the capability of our armed forces as they face manifold challenges, would be taken up on a priority basis.

In this issue, Ambassador Prabhat Shukla looks at the Pashtun Factor in the Afghanistan Post-2014 scenario while eminent civil servant M N Buch critically analyses the Swachh Bharat campaign and suggests concrete measures to make it more effective.

Dr Dilip K Chakrabarti cautions us on the ever growing foreign archaeological collaborations. There are equally interesting and informative articles on a host of critical issues confronting the nation. We hope you enjoy this edition.

K G Suresh

Back to Contents

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 3

CENTRE STAGE Afghanistan Post-2014: the Pashtun Factor - Prabhat P. Shukla* here is an effort among Afghanistan has kept out of Indo- some western commentaries Pakistan affairs. T – taken up and amplified by the Pakistanis - to try and project Two, the fight is between the situation in Afghanistan as a Afghanistan and Pakistan, and proxy war between India and has its own logic, going back to the Pakistan. The drumbeat of this dispute over the Pashtun issue, thesis grows as the draw-down of with Baluchistan also steadily in western forces from Afghanistan focus. It has acquired an draws near. Such a view sounds additional facet in recent years, strange to Indian ears, for we were since Afghanistan has no interest labouring under the belief this last in becoming any other country’s decade that it was a straight, “strategic depth” – indeed, deeply though covert, fight between the resents the idea, and rejects the US and Pakistan. Pakistani military push behind the concept. And that is how, moreover, people like Negroponte and Mullen Three, Afghanistan has become a projected it too – and you would battleground indeed, between expect them to know. However, it Pakistan [aided occasionally by is important to understand the outside powers] on the one hand, reality of what is happening in and the USSR, the US, and Afghanistan, and for that, the Afghan nationalism by turns. narrative must begin some And four, and most important, decades back. there is a coded message behind To anticipate the conclusions of this analysis. The message is that this essay: one, the fight is not Pakistan is going to continue to between India and Pakistan. Ever meddle in Afghan affairs, and seek since 1947, India has kept out of once more to inject the Taliban, in Afghan-Pakistan affairs, and their newest iteration, into Afghanistan, and no one should

* Prabhat P. Shukla Distinguished Fellow, VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 4 oppose this. India is simply British authorities from the 1920’s shorthand for the fact that all the onwards. By 1944, when it was neighbours of Afghanistan – Iran, clear that the British were to the Central Asians, and countries withdraw from India, the Kabul like India and Russia – are authorities asked the British concerned at the ceaseless Government in London to allow sponsorship of terror and extreme the Pashtuns in British India to groups by Pakistan. If they oppose choose to accede to Afghanistan or Pakistan, that becomes a proxy opt for independence as well; war. instead, they were only given the choice to accede to India or The Afghans themselves want Pakistan. The number of none of this Pakistani registered voters was a fraction of interference, but the total that is also The number of registered population, and voters was a fraction of the conveniently even among them, total population, and even skipped over. The the support for truth is, if Pakistan among them, the support for accession to Pakistan was accession to does not promote barely above 50 percent. The Pakistan was the extremist hill tribes, who are in the barely above 50 Islamic groups, centre of the fighting today, percent. The hill were not allowed to vote there will be no tribes, who are in because they were not push-back from the the centre of the Afghans or considered part of the administered territories. fighting today, anybody else; it is were not allowed to entirely vote because they emblematic that in all this lofty were not considered part of the talk about avoiding a proxy war, administered territories. the Pakistanis refrain from mentioning anything about their Pakistan showed its militant solemn, repeated – and repeatedly colours within a few months of its broken – promises of non- independence – it sent “raiders” in interference. September 1947 to the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir The history of the face-off is well- [violating the stand-still known: Afghanistan never agreement it had signed earlier accepted the Durand Line which with the state] from the Pashtun divided Pashtun from Pashtun, areas. Already, as early as 1947, and this was made clear to the

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Pakistan was seeking to portray had taken a high-profile position this operation as an Islamic on the Pashtun question. The call campaign, a jihad. Afghanistan to jihad was given practical shape was opposed to the use of the by a Pakistani, Naseerullah Pashtun tribes for this purpose, Babar, himself a Pashtun, who and the Afghan ulema responded was then serving as the Inspector- with a fatwa denying that there General of the Frontier Corps. It was any need for a jihad against was he who advised Zulfikar Ali the Indians and denying any Bhutto that the solution to the religious sanction for the Pashtun problem lay in campaign. This was done in the overwhelming Afghan irredentism context of preventing Pakistan by using the Islamic card. He from exercising influence over the sprang some of the important mountain tribes in the North-West Islamic leaders from Kabul, whose Frontier Province, which was not names read like a who’s who of the Pakistani territory in their eyes. anti-Soviet war of the 1980’s: Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, The subsequent two decades saw Burhanuddin Rabbani, Ahmed frequent tensions over the Shah Massoud, Noor Mohammed Pashtun question between the two Mohammedi, and others. At this countries, and even saw a limited stage, the Islamists were not all skirmish in 1963. As a result of Pashtuns – the heavy reliance this last, King Zahir Shah particularly on Ghilzai Pashtuns dismissed his Prime Minister and was to come later, under Gen Zia- cousin, Mohammed Daoud Khan. ul-Haq. But the idea of using In turn, Daoud overthrew the Islam as a weapon to blunt the King a decade later in 1973, and Pashtun nationalist issue both thus began a new era in South internally and vis-à-vis Asian history – not only because it Afghanistan was born at this time. ended the Durrani monarchy, but In part, this was based on also because it saw the first formal Pakistan’s use of the Islamic card launch of jihad in the to motivate the tribes in the north- subcontinent. west; in part, it was based on the This happened in the summer of experience of 1971 in the former 1973 itself, and it was declared by East Pakistan, when the Islamists Jalaluddin Haqqani – of the now- had remained loyal to Pakistan, famous Haqqani network - against while the Bengali nationalists the government of Daoud, which

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 6 were motivated by their regional internal subversion by the identity. supporters of the Soviet Union, especially the Soviet-trained This group launched an uprising officers in the Armed Forces. A against Daoud centred in Panjsher quick exchange of visits took place in 1975, though it covered other between Bhutto and Daoud in parts of the country too. Daoud 1976, and there was indeed every was shaken by the event, and prospect of a settlement. gradually began to re-think his strategy towards Pakistan, Before a deal could be settled, including on the Durand Line. In Bhutto called for elections in 1977 his interaction with the and, in the turmoil that followed Americans, he indicated a the rigged elections, the Pakistan willingness to seek an Army stepped in once again, in accommodation with Pakistan. July 1977, and Gen Zia became The Shah of Iran, flush with the military ruler. Although he petrodollars and as The Shah of Iran, flush with seemed to be suspicious of the petrodollars and as suspicious inclined to pick up Soviet Union as of the Soviet Union as Bhutto the threads where Bhutto and the and the Americans, also helped they had been left Americans, also by offering economic assistance off by Bhutto, he helped by offering to both Afghanistan and did not have the Pakistan. economic time to do anything assistance to both substantive: Daoud Afghanistan and Pakistan. himself was overthrown in April 1978, and the US guarantees The only fly in the ointment was proved unavailing. Daoud’s fear that the USSR would seek to destabilise him if he tried The People’s Democratic Party of to change course. In a long and Afghanistan [PDPA], which came serious conversation with to power, was indeed propelled Secretary of State Kissinger in into power by Soviet-trained Kabul in August 1976, he officers from the Armed Forces, informed the latter that he and and once again raised the Pashtun Bhutto were close to a settlement issue as a high priority. And once of the Pashtun and Baluch again, Pakistan responded by questions. The only guarantee he unleashing the Islamic forces – asked for – and was assured of by this time with a heavy reliance on Kissinger – was support against the Pashtuns, and the Ghilzai

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Pashtuns in particular. The USSR progress against the PDPA forces responded to the worsening in Herat. The Soviets and the situation in Afghanistan by Afghan Army hit back with sending in its own troops into the ferocity against the fall of Herat, country in December 1979, and a and the rebels turned to Pakistan new Afghan war began, pitting the for help, but were rebuffed. Soviet forces against pretty much Pakistan was building up the all the regional and global powers. Ghilzai to oppose the Soviets, and almost the entire top leadership of Through the 1980’s, the Pakistanis the Seven Party Alliance belonged controlled and guided the anti- to this branch of the Pashtuns. Soviet campaign. It was one of the conditions that they imposed on Shortly before he died in August the Americans that the ISI would 1988 in a plane crash, Gen Zia control the funds, arms and stated that Pakistan had earned training of the insurgents. This is the right to have a friendly worth analysing in substantive government in Kabul. “We won’t terms, because it showed that the permit it to be like it was before, Pakistanis were clear that the with Indian and Soviet influence ultimate winners would have to be there and claims to our territory." beholden to them and to no one This was said as the Geneva else, not even the Americans. accords were being worked out, Further, because they had and reflected one of the most suffered bad relations with the important motivations behind the Durrani Pashtuns – Zahir Shah Pakistani strategies towards and Daoud were both Durranis, as Afghanistan. No longer would were the earlier Kings since Abdur Pakistan permit, to the extent Rehman signed the first possible, any claims on its agreement on the Durand Line – Pashtun lands by the rulers in they were determined to do their Kabul. utmost to block the emergence of any Durrani to power in Kabul. This approach survived Zia; in fact, it reflects the current An interesting incident illustrates national consensus, public this Pakistani attitude of mind: in demurrals notwithstanding. March 1979, before the Soviet Naturally, therefore, as early as invasion, a group led by Gul 1989, Pakistan made its bid to Mohammed, a Barakzai [a capture power and pushed Durrani] had made significant Hikmatyar into a pitched battle in

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Jalalabad. The widely-held and this too was unacceptable to expectation, and not just in the Pakistani leaders, especially to Pakistan, was that the Najibullah the security establishment. government would crumble, but it fought off the Hizb forces of The story of the rise of the Taliban Hikmatyar. In retrospect, this was from 1994 onwards is well-known, not surprising, because and the only point worth Hikmatyar’s record during the emphasizing is the role of the self- 1980’s was quite patchy, whereas same Naseerullah Babar, now the the PDPA forces were well-trained Interior Minister under Benazir and -equipped. The Soviet Union Bhutto. It was he who put had also continued to provide together the Taliban force in 1994, financial aid with the intention of capturing the amounting to $3 The aim at this stage was to billion annually to have a swathe of territory western parts of Najibullah even under their control which Afghanistan. The would allow Pakistan, in after 1989, and it aim at this stage cooperation with the Central was only after the was to have a Asian hydrocarbon-rich swathe of territory collapse of the countries, to set up trading under their control USSR and the rise links with the rest of the of Yeltsin as world. A US hydrocarbon which would allow Russian President company, Unocal, also Pakistan, in contributed to this effort. The that the financial cooperation with strategic objective was to block aid was stopped. the Central Asian Iran and Russia from any role hydrocarbon-rich Within three in this trade. months of this, countries, to set up Najibullah was gone. trading links with the rest of the world. A US Even then, the replacement was hydrocarbon company, Unocal, not the kind of government that also contributed to this effort. The Pakistan would be satisfied with, strategic objective was to block for the two pillars of the new Iran and Russia from any role in regime were Massoud and this trade. This was despite the Dostum. Both had stayed away fact that, as far as Russia was from Pakistan during the war concerned, all the existing against the Soviets, so neither was pipelines ran through Russia or beholden to Pakistan in any way. Russian-controlled territory. This Moreover, neither was a Pashtun, was also despite the fact that,

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 9 apart from Russia, Iran was the emphasising that India had most economical route for virtually no role in any of this. Its evacuating the oil and gas from hands were full dealing with Central Asia. internal security issues, the need for ensuring economic growth, and What we see thus is that the later, addressing the diplomatic stakes in Afghanistan have fallout of its nuclear tests. changed since the days of the Soviet occupation. For the US, it India got involved only after the was initially the need to beat back rise of the Taliban and the fall of the Soviet Union, and to Kabul, and in this it was not undermine the unity of that alone; this was an issue that country, and they succeeded in touched nearly every country both their strategy. For this purpose, in the region, and in the wider they were willing to use the world. It is worth emphasising one obscurantist forces that Pakistan important aspect of the militant had nurtured, even though they movements in what has now come were aware that at least some of to be called the AfPak region: this them were anti-West and is the growth of extremism, from specifically anti-US as well. But generation to generation. The they felt then that they could Taliban of the 1990’s made the control the fallout, especially with mujahideen of the Rabbani- a friendly Pakistan to keep things Mujaddidi type look reasonable. under control. The Chinese feel The TTP and the other militant the same way today, and are groups of today have similarly comfortable seeing the US outflanked the Afghan Taliban humiliated in Afghanistan. and are making the Quetta Shura look comparatively weak and However, by the 1990’s, with the peaceable. And now we have the destruction of the USSR complete, ISIL. This point is worth exploring the stakes had changed, and the in some detail. US strategy was to impose a double blockade for trade and The current militant movement is strategic purposes – against more ideologically motivated than Russia and Iran. This was any of the earlier groups. The conceived and driven by the US, growth of this new ideology has and embraced willingly by been well-documented, and it is Pakistan in the South and Central recognised as the fastest-growing Asian regions. It is worth among all the competing terrorist

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 10 threats in the world. Their belief, is that there is an enormous which is widespread in several amount of warfare to come. This Muslim countries, especially suits Pakistan very well. These Pakistan, derives from the Hadith fighting forces are mainly regarding end-times. According to Pashtuns, who would otherwise be this, the war in Afghanistan is the looking to settling the Pashtun prophesied Battle for Khorasan, question. However, as long as they and of course, they believe that are doing what they see as Allah’s their armies will be victorious. work in subduing lands that This Battle will embrace not just rightfully belong to Him, they will today’s Afghanistan, but also Iran not look to issues such as their and Central Asia. This will be own national and territorial followed by the Ghazwa-i-Hind – rights. And in this, they will the campaign for India – which continue to enjoy the support of will cover today’s India, Pakistan, the Pakistan Army and the ISI. Bangladesh and The growth of . According to this, the war in Myanmar, as well Afghanistan is the prophesied violence and as parts of the Battle for Khorasan, and of extremism within surrounding course, they believe that their the country is a countries. This will armies will be victorious. This price worth paying be followed by the Battle will embrace not just for keeping these today’s Afghanistan, but also battle to liberate forces oriented Iran and Central Asia. the Holy Places, outward. Mecca, Medina, and al-Quds [Jerusalem]. And that The Pashtuns, along with the will lead to the restoration of the Kurds, are the two largest, most true world-wide Caliphate. populous tribes in the world that have no homeland of their own. It Such is the new ambition among is estimated that there some 45 the terrorist groups, and many of million Pashtuns in the world, and their spokesmen – inevitably men, they have all the attributes of a of course – are willing to speak nation. They have the language, publicly about the contemporary tradition and culture of relevance of these prophecies. nationhood, and recent memory of What it means for them, and their having ruled large parts of the patrons in Pakistan, who are region. This is what Daoud and playing this dangerous game with the PDPA rulers were playing on; themselves and the entire region, simultaneously, the Pakistanis

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 11 were turning them towards Islam Pakistan has in the politics of the and jihad, with the calculation region; if they were to give this up, that this would raise their sights they would have no value left. above narrower Pashtun They do not have the financial or territorial demands. In this, diplomatic wherewithal, or the soft Pakistan has been successful, power, to play any positive role in perhaps too successful. The the neighbourhood. Islamist forces they have let slip have become increasingly This also explains why the disenchanted with the Pakistani Pakistanis are opposed to any state, and regard it as un-Islamic, arms for the ANSF beyond those hence itself a target for jihad. that a constabulary would have. The Islamists must be able to This is why it would be ahistorical make the military breakthroughs to expect the Islamist forces to they need to expand north into come to a negotiated settlement and west into all parts of with the Afghan Government. The Afghanistan, and from there, into Taliban have, for example, in fact, Xinjiang, Iran and Central Asia. declared that the new Afghan Only a strong and well-trained Government is unacceptable to ANSF can thwart these strategies. them, and they will not accept For exactly obverse reasons, the anything less than a truly Islamic rest of the world needs to ensure Government, which will follow that the ANSF is capable of Sharia in its true form. defending the country. For its part, Pakistan, especially If there were any doubts about in its current debilitated shape, this analysis, recent events in Iraq cannot afford to let the Islamists should quell them. lower their ambition, for then the Pashtun Question will be back in Iraq provides an illustration of the an even more aggravated form, kind of problem that may arise if and this time led by well-trained, the ANSF turn out to be under- and motivated fighters who will equipped for the coming tests of pose a serious challenge to the strength. The way the Iraqi Army Pakistani state and its security melted away in the face of the forces. It will, therefore, have no ISIL should be an object lesson for interest in a negotiated the rest of the world. The western settlement. What is more, these and Arab countries were forced jihadi forces are the only asset back into the fight, and the same

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 12 will happen in Afghanistan if again has shown, the interests of adequate preparation is not made the wider world community are for the coming trials. also going to be hit, and the other affected countries need to be What this narrative has shown is prepared for this. that Pakistan has been nurturing and promoting Islamic extremist Pakistan knows all this well forces since the early 1970’s, and enough, as do the puzzling, though not because it was fighting any dwindling, number of its proxy war with India. The reason supporters in the west. The real was, and remains, the unsettled message behind this kind of Pashtun question, for which writing is preemptive: Pakistan is Pakistan sought an Islamic going to make another bid for its answer. In the bargain, it has had proxies to gain complete to resort to growing extremism, dominance over Afghanistan once and it has to continue to fan it the again, and countries like India interests of its own survival. should not stand in the way. That Therefore, any statement that it is is the true meaning of the talk of a willing to moderate its outlook, or proxy war. It overlooks the reality to curb the extremists it has that the war against Pakistani nurtured needs to be discounted attempts to dominate Afghanistan completely. will be fought by the Afghans themselves. And in this, they will Further, the threat posed by these be supported not only by India, forces is to all the neighbours of but all of the near and distant Afghanistan, including Russia and neighbours. China. It is thus no India-Pakistan face-off. To the extent that Indian Back to Contents interests are affected, it will, of course, defend them. But as Iraq

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NATION Swachh Bharat Is Not Mardi Gras - Dr M N Buch* n his speech from the rampart campaign? He would most of the Red Fort on 15th August probably have declined, which I 2014, Prime Minister could be interpreted as a signal Narendra Modi made a fervent that the Congress Party does not appeal to the nation to make the believe in a clean India. The fact, gift of a Swachh Bharat to however, is the Manmohan Singh Mahatma Gandhi on the occasion government had itself started a of his 150th birthday in 2019. This campaign for what it described as was followed up by a campaign Nirmal India, which obviously launched on 2nd October, 2014 to means that it has as great a stake start the process of cleaning India in the country being clean, and as a symbolic gesture the hygienic and sanitised as does Prime Minister and various BJP. The difference is one of dignitaries throughout the country approach, with Narendra Modi themselves wielded a broom to being more focused and energetic clean the streets. Thereafter, the about achieving his goal. Prime Minister invited nine distinguished persons from Emulating the Prime Minister, different fields, including cinema, many people have joined the politics, sports, etc., to join the campaign in that they, too, have campaign so that their collective spared time to sweep a part of influence could bring millions of some street or the other. This is Indians into the cleanliness fold. very welcome, but the spirit of All the nine persons have these people is one of a carnival or responded positively, with Sashi Mardi Gras, almost a joyous Tharoor of the Congress Party occasion and a great opportunity having to pay a political price in for being photographed by the that he was immediately removed media, thus gaining a little as spokesperson of the Congress welcome publicity. However, the Party because he had dared to seriousness of the call for Swachh support Modi. What would have Bharat and the sustained effort happened if Modi had invited needed to achieve this does not Rahul Gandhi to join the seem to have sunk into most *Dr M N Buch, Dean, Centre for Governance and Political Studies, VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 14 minds. There is also peer pressure against littering and this also helps. It is obvious that a country will be as clean as its citizens decide and At the other end of the spectrum is their decision will be very largely the small island city State of determined by the physical Singapore, where there is environment and infrastructure relatively high density of created by the authorities. population. Of course a strong Switzerland, a mountainous family planning policy has kept country without a high density of the population under check and to population, is considered amongst that extent Singapore has a the cleanest countries in the world stabilised population unlike the and rightly so. Scenically cities of India, where growth of Switzerland is like a picture population is almost uncontrolled. postcard and climatically it is A city whose size is finite has extremely time and space to temperate, which A city whose size is finite has improve the means that the time and space to improve the infrastructure, relatively low infrastructure, whereas a city whereas a city temperatures whose growth is open ended has whose growth is to run fast on the spot just to assist in prevent the civic services from open ended has to preservation of collapsing. run fast on the spot vegetation, etc. In just to prevent the terms of civic facilities and civic services from collapsing. This infrastructure, Switzerland has point is very important because them of a very high order. In turn, unless we understand that our this encourages citizens to become growth is open ended and must be partners in keeping the country checked, we cannot ever seriously clean and any lapse from the tackle the problems of having an normal would be taken care of by adequate civic infrastructure. the civic authorities and the law Singapore is hot and humid, being enforcement agencies. There is a located only just north of the general orderliness about the equator. The problem with a hot country and there is not only and humid climate is that it citizen awareness of the need to encourages fecundity of keep the country clean, but there vegetation, animal life, insects and is also strict law enforcement. other pests, it accelerates degradation of rubbish and the

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 15 subsequent putrefaction leads to drinking water and vector control, environmental hazards and water borne diseases and vector creates health problems. borne diseases are almost Singapore decided very early after unknown in Singapore. There are independence that it would create heavy fines for any deviation from an ideal nation State. Therefore, hygienic norms and law its civic services are of a very high enforcement is very strict. That is order. Located at almost sea level, why Singapore is almost one of the it nevertheless has a drainage cleanest places on earth. system which ensures that water and effluents are carried away, Singapore is equally aware of the treated and then suitably disposed need to prevent air pollution. of. There are no stagnant pools of Because automobiles are amongst dirty water anywhere in Singapore the biggest contributors of carbon and, as a consequence, there are monoxide to the atmosphere, the no mosquitoes. The entire city is city government decided to restrict covered by an efficient sewerage the number of motor vehicles in system and sewage passes through the country. No factory primary, secondary and tertiary manufacturing any automobile, treatment so that the ultimate even two-wheelers, may be located effluent is clean, almost potable. in Singapore. Cars and other That takes care of water pollution. motor vehicles are fully imported The government is ferocious about and there is very heavy import littering and dumping of garbage. duty so that such vehicles are Therefore, all solid waste is expensive. There is also a heavy segregated into that which is annual vehicle tax to further biodegradable, non-degradable discourage the private ownership items which can be recycled and of cars. There are many parking items which require disposal restrictions and a new motor otherwise. Garbage has to be vehicle may be purchased only placed after separation only at after the number plate of an designated points and the civic already owned vehicle is authorities regularly collect surrendered to the transport garbage and dispose of it in a authorities. Cars older than a manner which meets sanitary and specified period have to be hygienic norms. Because there is disposed of outside Singapore so no putrefying garbage anywhere that new vehicles with high there are no flies and with pure emission standards replace those

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 16 which are polluters. There is an pools of stagnant water? Is this extremely efficient public because we do not care or is it transport system and people are because we have no option? not only encouraged to use it but in fact prefer to do so because it is Rural India, fortunately, has land so much more convenient than space and, therefore, the village as driving one’s own car such is not densely populated. Of course we have the relatively India is completely different. larger villages packed together in There is a paradox of people who the village abadi, leaving arable are personally very clean and land available for cultivation. fastidious about body hygiene, That makes good economic sense. clothes and the spotless However, even in a tightly cleanliness of the configured village, inside of the house, India is completely different. generally speaking, particularly the There is a paradox of people garbage goes into kitchen, combined who are personally very clean heaps or trenches with an appalling and fastidious about body to be converted into sense of civic hygiene, clothes and the manure. spotless cleanliness of the indifference and inside of the house, Fortunately even social particularly the kitchen, today, because irresponsibility. combined with an appalling village living is still The house must be sense of civic indifference and fairly simple, non clean but it is all social irresponsibility. biodegradable right to throw material forms only garbage on the streets. The a small part of the garbage. kitchen has to be clean but kitchen However, rural India and a great waste is allowed to putrefy. The deal of urban India is still not bucket from which one bathes has equipped with a toilet in every to be shining, but water from the house and, therefore, there is still kitchen, bath room and toilet is substantial open defecation. allowed to spread into the street Narendra Modi’s call for the and collect in puddles of dirty construction of toilets in every water. Of this paradox, which is house and in every school is the reality of the clean India and definitely a major departure from the equal reality of the filthy the policy of only scratching at the India? Why do we have open problem. Incidentally, extension of defecation, heaps of garbage and sanitation of this nature to every

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 17 household is a possibility and, in the early seventies of the last therefore, this is one target we can century and today it is a achieve. If there are toilets with a reasonably well serviced area with proper treatment system, albeit of proper housing. It is pity that a the Sulabh two pit model, we can slum has developed adjacent to a crack down on open defecation and locality developed as a model for inculcate the habit of using a toilet all slums in India. Here in our people. Once a facility is everything filthy about the slum is available one sees no reason why visible from the road. How can all Indians cannot be made these slums dwellers become sanitation conscious. partners in the campaign for Swachh India when they are A slum consists of self built denied every civic facility to which housing, generally speaking of our citizens are entitled? If we mud and junk material. The want the slum dwellers to houses themselves are so contribute to a clean India then nondescript as to almost not our civic authorities, our State register visually. However, a slum and Central Governments have to is a foul habitation because it has ensure that with the help of the no drainage, sewage, piped water people there is some reordering of supply, the conservancy teams of the slum so that there is the municipality almost never go reasonable access, there is clean to a slum to collect the garbage, piped water supply to every there are pools of stagnant water house so that water borne which give birth to clouds of diseases are eradicated, there is mosquitoes and putrefying an adequate sewerage system garbage on which both pigs and and a drainage system which rag pickers root alike and which contributes to sanitation and are the birth place of flies, garbage is not allowed to pathogens and noxious insects. accumulate but is regularly This is true of every slum in India, collected from designated sites and but a good example is that of the then suitably disposed of. Citizens slum behind Panchsheel Nagar in who find that at least the Bhopal along Main Road Number minimum civic services are 3, which is almost next door to the available to them would be Maulana Azad National Institute amenable to responding to a call of Technology. Panchsheel Nagar for civic hygiene at community was a site developed for the poor level and at that stage those who

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 18 do not conform can be subjected to If our civic authorities cannot even heavy penalties. maintain such a drain how can One gave the example of they expect our citizens to respond Singapore, which is almost at sea to a call for keeping the city clean? level and the terrain is completely One compliments the Bhopal flat. Despite that, Singapore has Municipal Corporation for a major an efficient drainage system effort to ensure that water bodies because it was properly designed in the city are kept relatively and constructed. Contrast this pollution free. For immersion of with Bhopal which is a hilly city idols, tazias, etc., specially with fairly steep gradients, whose designated and designed water hills contain lakes into which all bodies are set aside in order to the water of the catchment drains. prevent the pollution of the lakes. There can be no excuse for any Here the citizens, under the guise water logging in of religious fervour, Bhopal and despite There can be no excuse for any become beasts, this one finds that water logging in Bhopal and with no concern for many areas of despite this one finds that the environmental Bhopal do, in fact, many areas of Bhopal do, in havoc caused by get inundated. The fact, get inundated. The reason their religious for this is an inadequate reason for this is drainage system, with many of practices. In all an inadequate the drains being built upon religions, the need drainage system, illegally. to protect nature is with many of the an important drains being built upon illegally. precept. People who pollute This has disturbed the normal through immersion are actually drainage system dictated by working against the interests of topography. Arera Colony is one religion. This is one area where of the up market residential areas the State must intervene, even and in sector E-3 of Arera Colony with harshness if necessary. with a fairly large drain which serves three major sectors of this The campaign for cleanliness can area. The drain is not properly work only if we begin by ensuring graded and it is partially choked that every citizen has access to by garbage thrown into it. It civic services designed to create a overflows in the rains and hygienic and sanitary inundates the houses built along environment. Why do our its brink and at all times it stinks. politicians not spend time in

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 19 slums, impressing on the civic goal, to achieve which we need authorities the need to give the sustained hard work, in which the highest priority to providing plans are carefully drawn up, minimum basic services? Why priorities assigned, funds made does the Chief Minister of Madhya available and the implementation Pradesh symbolically sweep one of of plans carefully supervised. It is the main roads of Bhopal instead certainly not Mardi Gras. of spending a few hours cleaning the garbage in one of the slums? Back to Contents If government is serious, then let it realise that Swachh Bharat is a

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DEBATE Foreign Archaeological Collaborations and India’s Security Concerns - Dr Dilip K Chakrabarti*

he current rage in Indian Grants Commission (UGC) also archaeology is foreign lays stress on foreign T collaboration. One of the collaborations, attaching more reasons why this has become value to publications in foreign popular is that it imposes no journals than in the Indian ones. intellectual and logistical burden If true, this is a good case of the on the Indian collaborator. The Indian academia admitting that it problems of the necessary fund is inferior to the academia abroad. and the research strategy are The Ph.D dissertations which sorted out mostly by the foreign occasionally result from such collaborators who also work collaborations are prepared mostly subsequently on the excavated and by students of the foreign team. explored archaeological materials The Indian universities which . When the final report is have been very enthusiastic about published, that no doubt bears the such collaborations in recent years name of the Indian collaborator are Deccan College, Pune, MS but the fellow professionals know University of Baroda, Banaras that the whole thing is basically Hindu University and Dharwar written up by the team of the University. foreign collaborator. From the Indian point of view, this is a On the surface, there is nothing good arrangement in which the objectionable about this scenario. Indian team has nothing to do International collaborations are except organizing the government supposedly good things by permission and other logistics of themselves, and when the the work at the site. For some collaborators on both sides are on members of the Indian team, this the same academic level, certain also opens the doors of foreign good things are bound to accrue visits and participation in foreign from intellectual exchanges. conferences. According to available However, the situation is seldom information, the University as simple and straightforward as * Dr Dilip K Chakrabarti, Dean, Centre for Historical and Civilisational Studies

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 21 this. Conference held in 1986 at Southampton was held without We must note in the beginning representation from the apartheid that archaeological studies are not regime of South Africa. This scientifically as rigorous as the controversy made the enquiries in the natural sciences. archaeological world feel strongly Here knowledge can seldom be about what may be called the conclusive and the position an politics of the past. individual researcher may take in relation to the field of enquiry as a Thirdly, this sense of the politics whole depends on his own bias and of the past does not flourish in a predilections.For instance, there vacuum. If we have to bring back was a time in the 1950s and 1960s our mind to the Indian past, we when it was taken for granted that realize that the knowledge of the the use of iron in India came from Indian past has been historically West Asia, whereas controlled by on the basis of the Quite recently, the Chairman Western scholars. of the Kerala Council of same set of data it Historical Research, who is The situation was possible to involved in the excavations of a remains more or argue somewhat Roman contact site called less unchanged later that there Muziris (identified with the site even now. Quite was adequate of Pattinam in Kerala), recently, the reason to believe managed to draw collaboration Chairman of the from Oxford University. that India was a Kerala Council of major and an independent centre Historical Research, who is of iron metallurgy. involved in the excavations of a Roman contact site called Muziris Secondly, there is also a thing (identified with the site of called ‘the politics of the past’. In Pattinam in Kerala), managed to 1986 there was an archaeological draw collaboration from Oxford conference in Southampton and University. Interestingly, he took when it was decided not to keep it a lot of pride in the fact that no open to the archaeologists from less a site than Oxford considered the apartheid regime of South the site important enough for Africa, there was a storm of attention and him personally protest in the name of the freedom worthy of collaboration. To be fair of science. Eventually the anti- to him, a senior and much- apartheid group won the debate respected Indian archaeologist and the first World Archaeological

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 22 once claimed that for India the sun host of recent disputes about of civilization always rose in the various features of ancient Indian West! This may be a bizarre history. Some of these disputes academic opinion but examples of have assumed sharply unpleasant such opinions are common in character in recent years. We may Indian archaeology and underline draw attention to the ongoing the inordinate reverence of Indian controversies about the Indus archaeologists on what the civilization. Although on the basis relevant Western scholars claim of the current evidence, it is regarding the Indian past. The virtually impossible to deny that Indians who get upset by Dina the growth of this civilization was Nath Batra’s opinion in certain due to any influence from outside. matters of ancient Indian science But what is being aired currently and technology may remember is that this growth was a part of that the positive achievements of the growth which was taking place ancient Indian science and at the same time in west and technology have scarcely received central Asia. This theory tries to the attention it deserves mainly quietly undermine the originality because of the restraining of the Indus civilization. In fact, elements of Western scholars and over the years some Western their Indian devotees. archaeologists have been particularly active in trying to This brings us to the question of bring about precisely this. It is national security which is worth emphasizing that there is a concerned with a host of issues, strong pressure from interested not the least of which is the groups to hand over some major nation’s concept of its past. A Indus sites to foreign money and nation which has a strong sense of foreign participants. The recent identity and is respectful of its excavations at Rakhigarhi by the past does not depend on sundry Deccan College, Pune, with money foreign collaborations for objective from an American NGO called research on, and interpretation of, Global Heritage Fund is a suitable its past. It is not in the interest of case in point. The approving any foreign group to be rigorously agency is the Archaeological objective about India’s ancient Survey of India which is under the past.. Ministry of Culture of the If one is distressed by this Government of India. statement, it is possible to cite a

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In recent years, many Indian linguistic affinities, making the archaeologists have come round to field wide open for regional the opinion that the Indus chauvinistic premises. The Deccan civilization is most likely to be a College archaeological group is in part of the Vedic stream and is the forefront of this endeavour but thus the fountainhead of Indian in the background one detects the culture and religion. To a large money and influence of a Japanese section of foreign archaeologists and an American group. this is anathema and the study of the Indus civilization is riddled What I have tried to argue is that with political controversies of all the pursuit of the past is not an kinds. To allow this field of study, innocuous academic activity and which is a crucial segment of our before foreign academic groups are ancient past, to manipulations of allowed uncontrolled and all kinds by foreign groups and unverified entry to this in India, their Indian collaborators is not we must be aware of the something which bears the dimensions which impinge on our question of India’s ideological long-term national security. It will security and civilizational not simply do to forget that major confidence in mind. premises regarding the nation’s past cannot be allowed to be Another dangerous development is controlled by foreign groups. taking place in attempts to relate Government interventions are prehistoric Indian cultures to very important in this regard. various Indian languages.. What will happen is that these language groups will be given fictional Back to Contents

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DIPLOMACY India’s ‘Act East’ Policy: A Perspective

- Brig (Retd) Vinod Anand & Dr. Rahul Mishra* ndia’s Look East Policy (LEP) progressed from a dialogue came of age when New Delhi partner to the present status of a I celebrated two decades of strategic partner in respect of engagement by holding the ASEAN but has also established ASEAN-India Commemorative strategic partnerships on bilateral Summit in November 2012. The basis with many ASEAN countries first phase of LEP lasted for one and Japan, Australia and South decade till 2002 when the then Korea. It can also be said that Minister for External Affairs Mr after 2012, the Indian government Yashwant Sinha announced the continued to work towards what it commencement of the second called the third phase that was phase. While in the first phase, termed as an ‘Enhanced LEP’. the emphasis was on political, diplomatic and people to people In fact, when Modi government relationships, improved took over the reins of power in connectivity and enhanced trade, May this year, it conscientiously the second phase revolved around continued with the previous strengthening of economic government’s policy and the new relations, defence and security Minister for External Affairs, Smt cooperation besides strengthening Sushma Swaraj termed the new relationships in other areas. phase as ‘Act East Policy’ which in During the second phase, though a sense meant that more the dominant impulse remained substance was to be imparted the economic engagement, through early implementation of increasingly the LEP also acquired many elements of the LEP. While strategic orientation. The LEP the plan to engage ASEAN has focused not only on the ASEAN been charted out in the ‘Plan of members but also expanded to Action to implement the ASEAN- include South Korea, Japan, India Partnership for Peace, Australia, New Zealand and other Progress and Shared Prosperity countries in the East. Over the (2010-2015)’ announced during the two decades, not only has India Commemorative Summit of 2012, * Brig (Retd) Vinod Anand, Senior Fellow, VIF and Rahul Mishra, Research Analyst, ICWA

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 25 the Modi administration has been the much-awaited India Australia in an overdrive to reach out to all Civilian nuclear cooperation the nations in the wider Pacific agreement that would enable region. supply of Uranium to India. The successful conclusion of Abbott’s Prime Minister Modi’s successful visit is a watershed event in India- visit to Japan, the India visit of Australia relations. Apart from Australian Prime Minister Tony the civilian nuclear deal, Indian Abbott and the visit of China’s companies are also working President Xi Jinping are seen as towards joint energy ventures in high points in the Modi Australia. In November, Modi government’s policy towards the would be attending ASEAN-India wider East Asian region. Japan is and East Asia Summit in also considering joint projects with Myanmar where he would further India in some of the ASEAN outline his plans to revitalise countries besides relationships with expressing its In November, Modi would be ASEAN and East attending ASEAN-India and interest to invest in East Asia Summit in Myanmar Asian countries in India’s North East. where he would further outline both economic and The level of defence his plans to revitalise security fields. and security relationships with ASEAN and From Nay Pyi Taw, cooperation East Asian countries in both Modi would travel including joint economic and security fields. to Australia for the military exercises G-20 Summit and co-production and co- where he would have further development in defence industry is opportunity to have a bilateral on the cards. India-Japan civil with PM Abbot to build on the nuclear agreement could not be evolving strategic relationship concluded because of some with Australia. In order to expand apprehensions on part of Japan India’s footprint in Pacific, he but that aside, the scope of would be visiting Fiji after strategic and economic cooperation attending the G 20 meet. is expected to follow an upward trajectory. Clearly, within a short period of six months or so, the Narendra During the India visit of Modi government has taken steps Australian Prime Minister Tony to give a boost to the Look East Abbott, India and Australia signed Policy, or what has been termed as

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 26 the ‘Act East Policy’. In that and adherence to the Declaration regard, the statement made by the on the Conduct of Parties in the External Affairs Minister Sushma East Sea towards the adoption of Swaraj is worth noting. During the Code of Conduct of Parties. her visit to Vietnam on 26 August, 2014, she addressed the Indian It has been stated many times by Heads of Missions and said that the Indian strategists that India has to not just ‘Look East’ Myanmar is the lynchpin of India’s but ‘Act East’. Her visit to LEP and is a gateway or a Vietnam was the third visit to a strategic land bridge to the Southeast Asian country since she ASEAN. Myanmar is the current became the Minister for External Chair of the ASEAN, hosting Affairs in the Modi Cabinet. several meetings of ASEAN during the year. In that regard, Sushma President Pranab Mukherjee has Swaraj was on a four-day visit to also visited Vietnam and signed a Myanmar to participate in the number of agreements that Fourth East Asia Summit (EAS) include allotment of seven oil Foreign Ministers’ meeting, 21st blocks for exploration, enhanced ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) defence and security cooperation, retreat session and India-ASEAN increased economic and people to foreign Ministers Summit. During people exchanges besides regional her visit, she had extensive and multilateral cooperation. discussions with Myanmar’s While Vietnam supported India’s President U Thein Sein, Minister LEP and its increasingly of Foreign Affairs of Myanmar and important role in regional and Pyithu Hluttaw (House of global forums, they also expressed Representatives), Thura U. Shwe the resolve to ‘foster the on how to further strengthen ties implementation of signed between India and Myanmar. agreements’ and observed that cooperation in national defence India has been pushing for greater was an important pillar in their regional integration of Indian strategic partnership. President economy with that of the ASEAN Mukherjee also supported the by expanding the scope of trade freedom of navigation through and investment. The main focus of th high sea, peaceful resolution of 4 EAS Foreign Ministers’ disputes based on international meeting was on strengthening law including the 1982 UNCLOS cooperation in the areas of energy,

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 27 education, disaster management the Philippines consider India a and enhancing connectivity. benign balancer in the region. Sushma Swaraj reiterated India’s Therefore, India is widely position that India “would soon envisaged as a key power and one draft a five-year action plan of the major stakeholders in the starting 2016 for enhancing emerging East Asian security connectivity and cooperation in dynamics. diverse areas”. The agenda of the The Modi government has been 21st Asean Regional Forum retreat session largely revolved around emphasising on giving urgent the security issues. Ways of attention to the speedy completion combating terrorism and other of trilateral highway that will non-traditional security threat connect India-Myanmar-Thailand relating to the South China Sea to facilitate people-to-people figured contact between India and Myanmar and prominently in the st The agenda of the 21 Asean improve trade and meeting. Regional Forum retreat session largely revolved around the investment Regarding the security issues. Ways of opportunities. South China Sea combating terrorism and other Prospects for a dispute, India non-traditional security threat direct flight from continued to follow relating to the South China Sea Delhi-Bodhgaya- its traditional figured prominently in the Yangon are likely meeting. stance of pushing to be materialise for a peaceful resolution of the given the earnestness of Modi maritime dispute between China administration. Moreover, and the ASEAN member states friendly relations with Myanmar and that “no such issue should be are crucial for peace and resolved through conflict and war” development of India’s north- but through peaceful dialogue”. eastern states. Given that it was Swaraj remarked, “Recent the first ever visit to Myanmar by disputes in the South China Sea any Indian Minister of the new underscore the need to resolve government, Myanmar was given sovereignty issues peacefully by assurance that the new the countries concerned in government is willing to accordance with international strengthen relations with it and law”. Notably, major claimants in thereby, ready to boost trade and the dispute such as Vietnam and investment.

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India is aware of the changing keen to procure the Brahmos dynamics of the East Asian missiles, which are jointly regions. The security architecture produced by India and Russia. of the region is rapidly changing. Vietnam is also exploring the Rising China and Japan, and the possibility regarding procurement consistently increasing of naval weaponry. India has competition between them has agreed to supply four off shore taken new dimensions. India has naval patrol vessels to Vietnam realised the problems as well as and Modi has announced that the prospects of the changing India will “quickly operationalise regional dynamics. In that context, the $100 million Line of Credit India’s greater role and that will enable Vietnam to participation in the security acquire new naval vessels from architecture of the region as also India." the ways and means to enhance India’s presence in the Southeast Likewise, India is also working Asian region are of immense towards greater military importance, not just to India but cooperation with Japan and to the countries of the East Asian Australia. India and Australia will region also. These are important hold their first-ever bilateral components of the Act East policy military exercise in January 2015. as without robust trade, economic India-ASEAN FTA in Services investment and physical connectivity, India will not be able After several rounds of to achieve its goals. negotiations, India and the 10- member countries of Association of Energy security is an important Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) component of the Act East Policy signed the Free Trade Agreement of the Modi government, which (FTA) in services and investments has been manifested in the recent on 8 September, 2014. The final MoUs that India has signed with agreement was signed two years partner countries. New Delhi and after the conclusion of detailed Hanoi have moved forward in negotiations on the pact. In 2010, energy cooperation despite some India and the 10- ASEAN member objections by China. Vietnam has countries signed the Free Trade already renewed India’s lease of Agreement in goods. However, at two oil blocks in the South China that time, the services agreement Sea for another year. Vietnam is could not get signed taking into

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 29 account the sensitivities of a few Thailand and Vietnam. The ASEAN member countries. The primary reason for the Filipino realisation of the FTA in services apprehension is that it fears that is expected to give the much the Indian services sector might needed impetus to India’s trade sweep the Philippine market and and investment relations with the dominate the ASEAN services member countries of ASEAN. In industry. However, as the FTA in fact, the former Prime Minister services is implemented, India’s Manmohan Singh led United share in total trade would also rise Progressive Alliance government as India is a leader in the services II was criticised for signing an sector, making India-ASEAN FTA incomplete FTA (FTA in goods a ‘win-win situation’ for all. only), which was destined to lose out to ASEAN in terms of benefits. It is hoped that with India-ASEAN As a result, in the past few years, FTA in services and investments, India’s exports greater flow of remained In fact, the former Prime trade and Minister Manmohan Singh led insignificant, while investment and United Progressive Alliance freer movement of imports from government II was criticised for professionals will ASEAN countries signing an incomplete FTA increased. (FTA in goods only), which was be realised, paving destined to lose out to ASEAN the way for India’s The Indian in terms of benefits. comprehensive government as well regional economic as the private sector have been integration with the 10 ASEAN ready for the agreement but the member countries. The good news ASEAN members couldn’t for India is the inclusion of a brief expedite the pact. Countries such annexure on movement of natural as Indonesia, the Philippines and persons or workforce. The Thailand took several months to annexure defines business visitors, set things right domestically. It is contractual service suppliers and worth noting that the Philippines intra - corporate transferees, is yet to ratify the agreement in its issues that are critically important parliament. The other nine for India. In addition to that, other countries that have ratified the major issues such as domestic agreement include: Brunei, regulations, recognition, market Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, the access, national treatment, Philippines, Myanmar, Singapore, transparency, participation of

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 30 developing countries, joint Conclusion committee on services, review, dispute settlement and denial of The last three years or so have benefits etc. are also included in witnessed a growing apprehension the agreement. about the rising capabilities of an ascendant China and its With the completion of India- propensity to assert its claims in ASEAN FTA, the road to the South China and East China Sea. Regional Comprehensive The countries in the region are Economic Partnership (RCEP) also afflicted with difficult choices seems clearer. RCEP includes the to be made between their economic 10 ASEAN member countries and objectives where China is of help its six partners including India, and their strategic objectives of China, Japan, South Korea, safeguarding their national and Australia and New Zealand. sovereign interests where some of ASEAN aims to make RCEP a the nations in the region feel reality by 2015, which was first challenged. On the other hand, mooted during the 2011 ASEAN India is seen as a power which Summit in Indonesia, and does not threaten or challenge formally launched during the 2012 their national interests and can in ASEAN Summit in Cambodia. some away lessen their With the realisation of RCEP, apprehensions. Against this India is likely to gain preferential backdrop, ASEAN states are market access to 15 countries and seeking a moderating role in the gain more from price region given that New Delhi is competitiveness. seen as a benign power as opposed to China, the US or even Japan. To benefit most from the India- While India may not have the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement, political or the economic clout of India needs to keep going on the ASEAN’s other envisaged economic reform path. In that partners, it is anticipated that regard, steps to strengthen its with rising trajectory, India will medium, small and micro become a pole of influence in the enterprises (MSME) sector are future. However, China’s influence critically important which can is considerable and is likely to be help it not only sustain the free so for the coming years. India’s flow of trade, but also to become a LEP (and now Act East) has been more competitive player. in place now for over two decades

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 31 and precedes the American pivot their own policies like the to Asia and therefore it stands on American rebalance, or Japan’s its own merit. Modi Security Diamond concept or for administration is only building up that matter China’s New Maritime on what was bequeathed by the Silk Route strategy. It is to be previous government but with hoped that the new policies much more vigour. The strategic contribute towards stability and dynamics in the region are very prosperity in the region rather complex and still evolving and the than instability and insecurity. LEP is only one element of the vast strategic canvas on which major powers have put forward Back to Contents

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DIPLOMACY US Rebalance to Asia – An Assessment - Dr. Harinder Sekhon* S President Barack Obama possible if China continues to landed in Beijing on assert unilateral claims to U Monday for the APEC international waters and airspace summit, the first of a series of in the South and East China seas - summit and bilateral meetings - and to back these claims up with with regional and world leaders. the threat of force” by seeking to This visit comes at a time when a create “a sphere of influence that majority of Americans are erodes the security and despondent that the country's sovereignty of Japan and other competitors around the world are neighbours”. There is swelling while the country's apprehension that in East Asia, defence resources and the capacity China seeks “to overturn the to respond to global challenges existing, pluralistic regional order shrink. US defence budgetary cuts and replace it with a Sino sphere to the tune of a trillion dollars for imposed at least partly through this fiscal further add to this force of arms”, 1 as the US has mood. This gloom is not confined been more occupied with to the US alone but extends to the developments in Ukraine and the Asia Pacific as well where serious Middle East. While those are doubts exist about Obama’s serious issues that required commitment to his Doctrine of immediate attention, the US must 2012 directing a strategic “pivot” not lose sight of its long term and or Re Balance to Asia as an more serious challenge posed by a important element of his grand rising China in East Asia. strategy for the region. Strategic power plays in the Asia- While host China seeks to allay Pacific region and the role of the the fears of regional countries by two main players, the US and organizing the APEC agenda China, has emerged as one of the around a “series of initiatives to major drivers of international nurture regional economic growth relations in the twenty first and connectivity, long-term century. China’s rapid economic progress in these areas will not be rise over the past two decades has * Dr. Harinder Sekhon, Senior Fellow, VIF

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“made it possible for China to States with unprecedented increase its military capacity and opportunities for investment, ramp up its political role in the trade, and access to cutting- region and beyond.” While China edge technology. Our has been at pains to insist that its economic recovery at home rise will be peaceful, and “poses no will depend on exports and threat to its neighbours or the the ability of American firms existing international, political to tap into the vast and and economic order”, its rising growing consumer base of assertiveness, more visible since Asia. Strategically, 2010, is a matter of concern and maintaining peace and compelled the US to re orient its security across the Asia- policy towards the Asia-Pacific. In Pacific is increasingly crucial November 2011, Obama attended to global progress, whether the East Asia Summit in Bali, through defending freedom Indonesia, the first of navigation in the for a US President, In November 2011, Obama South China Sea, signifying a major attended the East Asia Summit countering the shift in US policy in Bali, Indonesia, the first for proliferation efforts to protect its a US President, signifying a of North Korea, or major shift in US policy to strategic interests protect its strategic interests in ensuring in Asia. Also in Asia. transparency in the November 2011, military activities US Secretary of State, Hillary of the region's key players. Clinton published an article in Foreign Policy Journal titled, ‘America’s Pacific Century,’ clearly This reaffirmation of its attention laying out the importance America towards the Asia-Pacific led to a attaches to Asia-Pacific. She strategic pronouncement of US wrote: policy in the form of the “pivot” or “rebalance” to Asia. While this Harnessing Asia's growth policy was not new and was and dynamism is central to mainly a continuation and American economic and expansion of policies already strategic interests and a key undertaken by previous US priority for President administrations, Obama’s Obama. Open markets in Doctrine had two distinct features. Asia provide the United First, it was more comprehensive

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 34 and included “all the necessary influencing the “terms of its components of a strategy, namely, admission and full military, political, economic and integration within those ideological.” The second feature of regional and international Obama’s pivot strategy was that it regimes where the US is still extended the scope of Asia Pacific the dominant actor.” to include South Asia, particularly (e) To play the role of a benign India, and linked the Pacific and and indispensable hegemon Indian Oceans as one continuum and thereby “acquire the in US grand strategy for Asia. 2 leverage necessary to influence regional actors and The main objectives of the “Asia their choices.”3 Pivot” were: (a) Re-assertion of US interest The US hoped to achieve its aims in maintaining stability in through a three - pronged policy of the region through the stepped up military deployment in prevention of regional Guam and Australia, trade and conflict and flaring up of diplomacy. But the pivot’s inter-state antagonisms. emphasis on making the US (b) Maintain security of the military presence in the region global commons, especially more flexible, and putting the sea-lanes through which measures in place for its rapid more that 50% of global deployment caused concern trade and 70% of ship-borne amongst the Chinese. While the oil transits. US insists that its strategic (c) Create an enabling rebalance only seeks to “enhance environment for further regional stability for the benefit of expansion of trade between all, rather than to contain or the United States and East threaten China,” the Chinese see Asia and among regional this move by the USA as an states through bilateral free- attempt to maintain its trade agreements and the “hegemonic dominance, thwarting facilitation of a Trans Pacific China’s rise and keeping it Partnership. vulnerable”. This has further (d) Though not explicitly stated, exacerbated regional tensions in to keep a watch on Chinese East Asia where China has been activities and managing its more aggressive in recent months role in the region by

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 35 while the US has been busy seen in some quarters, notably in elsewhere. These tensions focus on Beijing, as an exercise in US hard the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan power, and even provocative, and Strait and the South China Sea, produced a counter-reaction and have an important maritime accordingly. dimension, leading to a high probability of war in the region. At a time when friends and allies Besides Japan, Vietnam and the of the US are expressing doubts Philippines too feel vulnerable and about its commitment to its re- have joined the effort to draw balance strategy, US Secretary of American attention back to Asia- State, John Kerry sought to allay Pacific. such fears and apprehensions. In a recent statement, he said, “The Most countries view the US pivot Asia Pacific is one of the most strategy as more rhetoric than promising places substance. Some In a recent statement, he on the planet, and nations feel there said, “The Asia Pacific is America’s future has been a one of the most promising and security and significant change places on the planet, and prosperity are in US priority to America’s future and closely and Asia from the security and prosperity are increasingly linked rebalance, though closely and increasingly to that region.” not necessarily linked to that region.” Elaborating much in the way of further, Kerry said, increased military “President Obama’s rebalance presence, and that the signal sent towards the Asia Pacific and the in the region had been vital in enormous value that we place on reassuring some and, hopefully, longstanding alliances with Japan, deterring others. Others feel that South Korea, Australia, Thailand, there had been much less to it and the Philippines and our than meets the eye and that bourgeoning relationships with whatever steam it had originally ASEAN and countries in has now dissipated (e.g. Obama’s Southeast Asia” 4 would be a West Point speech had omitted it priority. altogether). But there could also be an important gap between Kerry outlined four main aspects reality and perception — whatever of the rebalance strategy: First, the actual substance, it has been the opportunity to create

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 36 sustainable economic growth, has the potential to easily focus on which includes finalizing the dominating the region, without Trans-Pacific Partnership, which worrying too much about the rest should not be viewed through the of the world beyond its direct narrow confines of a trade trade, investments and resource agreement but also as a strategic needs. The US would always have opportunity for the United States other priorities elsewhere and this and other Pacific nations to come is what worries many of China’s together and prosper together. neighbours and why they are so Second, powering a clean energy hard to satisfy and reassure. revolution that will help address climate change while In this context, while China and simultaneously jumpstarting the US are unlikely to be real economies around the world. friends and close allies for the Third, reducing tensions and foreseeable future, they could promoting regional cooperation by nevertheless work together closely strengthening the institutions and on many issues, for example North reinforcing the norms that Korea, climate and the contribute to a rules-based, stable environment, securing the global region. Fourth, create an commons, etc. The US could view environment that will empower Chinese proposals for an inclusive people throughout the Asia Pacific economic agenda with a positive to live with dignity, security, and attitude as the alternative of opportunity.5 constant competition and potential confrontation would be There is no doubt that US detrimental for everyone. economic and political interests in According to the New York Times, the Asia-Pacific region are huge, “last month 51 top American and there is a demand for an business leaders, led by the U.S.- increased US presence in, and China Business Council, urged strategic priority given to the Mr. Obama to make the conclusion region from many Asian countries. of a bilateral investment treaty by But the long-term question is 2016 a priority in his meetings whether the US has the will and with Mr. Xi.”6 They propose that the resources to keep up its effort such a treaty would be beneficial against the background of the for both countries. The US also continuing rise of China and its needs to play a more positive role own domestic compulsions. China in improving the multilateral

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 37 system, since ultimately a rules- US consultative leadership is based co-operative approach is in needed not only in the obvious US interests as is a revitalized G- political and economic areas, but 20. on the major cross-cutting issues where progress remains so Despite speculation in some difficult, but equally important: quarters about US decline, it climate change, cyber security, should not be viewed in absolute non-proliferation, macro terms. The US possesses imbalance. The rebalance to Asia inherent strengths and great remains vital, and should be influence, which give it the ability pursued as a long-term goal. to do worthwhile work globally. Helping respond to Chinese US soft power remains enormous assertiveness in the region is though investing more in tools like necessary, but so is a co-operative diplomacy and overseas US/China relationship. These are information capability, would be all challenging issues, as the US, well worthwhile. has not been able The US possesses inherent The world still to build a strong strengths and great looks to the US to and dependable influence, which give it the assume a network of regional ability to do worthwhile leadership role but institutions and work globally. this should be alliances in Asia as exercised more as a it has in Europe in team player and through the post World War – II period. partnerships and consultative leadership where possible, not While the US should not hesitate from a “sole super-power” to promote its values and perspective. For this strategic principles, it has to ensure its own perspective and strategic patience behaviour does not depart too are needed more than ever. The much from those values and rules. US needs to think long-term and To remain influential and relevant build the right fundamentals in the region, the US will have to through clearer guiding concepts, naturally remain engaged with principles, strategic priorities and East Asian and South East Asian goals. powers. But it will have to resist the temptation to claim for itself The US should be bolder in its economic privileges, exemptions readiness to reform institutions, and political authority to act in an its own and the international ones.

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 38 arbitrary manner just because it is 1. Daniel Twining, “An Asian the chief security provider. Ideas post-election checklist for of US exceptionalism and Obama, Nikkei Asian lecturing others would need to be Review, November 5, 2014. avoided while continuing with the effort to preserve a wide liberal, 2. SD Muni, Vivek Chadha, democratic base in the world. editors, Asian Strategic Review 2014 - US Pivot and The US referred to India as the Asian "linchpin" of its rebalance Security, IDSA and strategy; and by virtue of its own Pentagon Press, New Delhi, strategic and economic interests in 2014. p. 7 the region, India cannot remain unmindful of developments taking 3. For details see, place in East Asia. While India is Congressional Research pragmatic and more inclined to Service, Pivot to the Pacific? safeguarding its national interest The Obama Administration’s by following an interest-based Re-balancing Toward Asia, policy rather than getting drawn March 28, 2012, into a strategic competition with http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/na China or become a security tsec/R42448.pdf and Mario provider on behalf of the US, India Del Pero, US: Which Grand will have to devise a long-term and Strategy for Asia and China? effective strategy in order to ISPI Analysis No. 187, July emerge as a relevant player in 2013. East Asia. In recent months, India has strengthened its Look East Policy through bilateral and 4. Remarks on US-China multilateral engagements with the Relations by John Kerry, US smaller regional powers and Secretary of State, at Johns ASEAN countries, thereby Hopkins School of Advanced insulating itself from the risks of International Studies, strategic competition or complicity Washington, DC, November between China and the United 4, 2014 States, but a sustained 5. Ibid. involvement with this region is required. 6. Wang Dong, Robert A Kapp End Notes:- and Bernard Loeffke,

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Resetting US-China 4/11/11/opinion/resetting-us- Relations, The china- New York Times, November relations.html?ref=opinion 10, 2014. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/201 Back to Contents

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DIPLOMACY Visit of Vietnamese Prime Minister to India and the Evolving Intensification of Strategic Partnership - Maj Gen (Retd) P K Chakravorty* Introduction on the President and Vice President. At Bodh Gaya, he had a he Prime Minister of meeting with the Chief Minister of Vietnam Mr Nguyen Tan Bihar Shri Jitan Ram Manjjhi. A T Dung visited India on 27 conclave of business leaders was and 28 October 2014. This was the held during the visit. third visit of the Prime Minister to India during which the instrument It is interesting to note that of strategic partnership was strategic issues were given their signed. The Prime Minister was rightful place in the deliberations. accompanied by a large business Both Prime Ministers welcomed delegation which had separate the development in recent years meetings with apex chambers of which have led to a continuous commerce and industry including strengthening of the strategic CII, FICCI and ASSOCHAM. The partnership between the two Prime Minister also paid a visit to countries. They agreed that a the Buddhist shrine at Bodh Gaya strong India -Vietnam partnership where Buddha attained his would lead to peace, prosperity enlightenment. The visit was and stability for both countries extremely fruitful in increasing and in the wider region. Prime the cohesiveness between the two Minister Modi reaffirmed that countries. Vietnam was an important pillar of India’s Look East Policy. Prime Essential Aspects of the Joint Minister Dung welcomed a greater Statement role for India in the regional and During the visit, the Vietnamese international arena. Both Prime Prime Minister held official talks Ministers noted that the with Prime Minister Narender partnership was based on Modi and also paid courtesy calls traditional friendship, mutual understanding, strong trust, * Maj Gen (Retd) P K Chakravorty, India’s former Defence Attache to Vietnam

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 41 support and convergence of views Investment agreement which on national and international would further boost economic issues. cooperation between India and ASEAN in general as also The Prime Ministers expressed Vietnam in particular. They also satisfaction at the progress made called for closer Regional in defence cooperation including Economic Partnership Agreement. exchange of visits, annual security Business leaders of both countries dialogue, service to service identified priority areas for cooperation, ship visits, training cooperation. These included capacity building and cooperation hydrocarbons, power generation, at the regional fora including on infrastructure, tourism, textiles, Humanitarian Mine Action under footwear, medical and ADMM-Plus. They called for the pharmaceuticals, early The Vietnamese are likely Information & implementation of Communications $ 100 million Line to utilise this amount for the purchase of four Technology (ICT), of Credit offered by electronics, India to Vietnam. Offshore Patrol Vessels (OPVs) from India. It is agriculture, agro- The Vietnamese products, are likely to utilise indeed remarkable that India has made this chemicals, machine this amount for the tools and other purchase of four strategic gesture to Vietnam. supporting Offshore Patrol industries. They Vessels (OPVs) agreed to enhance from India. It is indeed bilateral trade to $ 15 billion by remarkable that India has made 2020. this strategic gesture to Vietnam. The Prime Ministers reaffirmed It was agreed that economic the importance of investment for cooperation between both the growth of their economies. countries should be pursued as a Prime Minister Dung welcomed strategic objective. They welcomed Indian companies to invest in the strong growth in bilateral Vietnam and Prime Minister Modi trade in recent years particularly invited the Vietnamese companies after the India- ASEAN trade in to join the accelerated economic Goods Agreement. They also noted growth programme ‘Make in India’ that the conclusion of India- for establishing their industries in ASEAN trade in Services and

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India. It was agreed that the international fora. They noted Customs Cooperation Agreement Vietnam’s assumption of the role and Maritime Shipping Agreement of ASEAN Coordinator for 2015- between the two countries be 2018 which would facilitate closer optimised to facilitate greater cooperation between India and economic engagement. ASEAN. Further they agreed on freedom of navigation in the South Both the Prime Ministers China Sea and to resolve disputes welcomed the signing of in accordance with universally Agreement between ONGC Videsh recognised principles of and Petro Vietnam for exploration International Law, including the of new oil and gas projects in UNCLOS-1982. They called for Vietnam. Prime Minister Dung cooperation in ensuring security of welcomed Indian Oil and Gas sea lanes, maritime safety & companies to explore new security, combating piracy and opportunities in midstream and conducting search and rescue downstream activities in the oil operations. The following and gas sector in Vietnam. agreements were signed in the It was a great step that the presence of both the Prime Vietnam Bank had agreed to the Ministers:- proposal to open a Bank of India  Memorandum of branch in Vietnam. Further to Understanding (MoU) on improve connectivity, Jet Airways the establishment of is going to commence direct flights Nalanda University. to Ho Chi Minh City from India  MoU on Conservation and with effect from November 2014. Restoration of the World Both Prime Ministers welcomed Heritage site of My Son, the ongoing cooperation in Quang Nam Province, capacity building institutes in Vietnam. Vietnam on IT, English language  MoU on establishing the training, entrepreneurship Centre for English development, high performance Language and Information computing, peaceful use of nuclear Technology Training of the energy, exploration in field of Telecommunication space and launch of satellites. University. Further, they agreed to cooperate  Cultural Exchange in the field of regional and Programme 2015-2017.

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 MoU on Exchange of Audio Foreign Ministry spokesperson Visual programmes. Hong Lei told reporters at a  Heads of Agreement (HoA) briefing That, “With regard to the between ONGC Videsh Vietnamese Prime Minister’s call Limited and Petro Vietnam. for India to support the peaceful  MoU between ONGC and resolution of South China Sea, I Petro Vietnam. want to point out that the dispute should be resolved through The discussions were warm dialogue and consultations by and friendly. An invitation was countries directly involved on the extended to Prime Minister basis of respecting historical facts Modi to visit at his and international law.” With convenience. The dates will be regard to the oil deals, China took finalised later. a more measured stand saying it Way Ahead would not oppose the projects if the fields were beyond its claims. The visit of Prime Overall, this is a Minister Nguyen With regard to the oil deals, significant Tan Dung has China took a more measured development as further enhanced stand saying it would not oppose the projects if the fields three years ago the friendship were beyond its claims. China was totally between India and opposed to India Vietnam. It is indeed undertaking exploration in the commendable on the part of India South China Sea. to offer a Line of Credit of $ 100 million for purchase of defence Notwithstanding China’s possible equipment. Further India has recognition of oil assets, India undertaken exploration of two should be prepared to respond to additional oil blocks in the South an adverse situation. Regular ship China Sea. Both these oil blocks visits by the Indian Navy would be fall out of the area of Chinese necessary for us to posture claims. effectively in this regard. Apart from this, India should gradually China immediately reacted by look into other areas for export of cautioning India against accepting sophisticated weaponry including the visiting Prime Minister’s call missiles to Vietnam. for India to play an active role in South China Sea. The Chinese The economic, culture and capacity building aspects are being

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 44 addressed effectively. Both strengthened relations between countries must strain every sinew the two countries. Strengthening to ensure bilateral trade is of strategic partnership between increased to $ 15 billion by 2020. the two nations would contribute to peace and stability in the Conclusion region. Vietnam is an extremely important pillar of our Look East policy. The visit of the Vietnamese Back to Contents Prime Minister has further

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DEFENCE India-China Boundary: Border Line, Claim Line and the Line of Actual Control

- Lt Gen (Retd) Gautam Banerjee*

“Those skilled at making enemy move, do so by creating a situation to which he must conform; they entice him with something he is certain to take, and with lures of ostensible profit, they await him in strength” – Sun Tzu.

China’s Territorial Activism Tibet Border have been on the rise and the Line of Actual Control t was around Year 2004-05 (LAC) between India and China that People’s Republic of has assumed the status of a ‘hot I China (PRC) started to spot’. become more assertive in its territorial claims. By then, its It is intended to delve into this military modernisation matter to see as to what are the programme, which required the implications of such dramatics on People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to the LAC as either side wielding avoid getting embroiled in any banners and loud-hailers, and the kind of conflict, was well on Chinese border guards crossing course. Hard-line factions in over to take to rock-graffiti, razing Beijing therefore found that time make-shift bunkers (sangar), was ripe to shed Deng Xiaoping’s camping-in, confiscating mantra to ‘lie low, build up and surveillance cameras and finally bide your time’ and ratchet up herding hapless Tibetan villagers their territorial claims. Transition of Tashigong (renamed in of power to Hu Jintao and his mandarin as Zhanxigang, in Garr team provided the impetus to do Prefecture) to put up farcical anti- so. It is so that incidents of India demonstrations. incursions and even encroachments across the Indo- Incursions and Encroachments

* Lt Gen (Retd) Gautam Banerjee, Executive Council, VIF

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As its logistic support bases - ‘forward policy’ is to push deeper which must determine the scope its revisionist version of the LAC for every routine, minor or major to coincide with its territorial military action on a terrain so claim-lines, and thus leave India excruciating - are built up in with no option but to yield to a Southern Tibet, PRC’s forceful border settlement that is grossly assertions over its territorial in PRC’s favour. The latest claim-lines have gained incidents of stand-off in Ladakh’s discomforting prominence. During Demchok and Chumur areas and the past decade or so, incursions the Fish Tails-Choglagam area in across the LAC in the Western the Eastern Sector are but the and Central Sectors have notches of that escalation. increased from 20-30 times to more than 200 annually. More To find the right perspectives over ominous, if less publicised, are an issue so sensitive, the those 1600 incursions which have background of the LAC have to be occurred in North-Eastern India looked at, distinctly for the during the past five years, where, Western, Central and the Eastern given its vast spread that cradles Sectors. The Sectors and vibrant societies and enormous prominent areas where such gifts of nature, the matter potentially dangerous assumes more sensitivity. Besides choreography of power-play takes the points of regular patrolling place are as shown in Sketch 1. astride the LAC, incursions by troops of PLA’s Border Guard Regiments have been spilling over to areas which had not been in contention so far. Furthermore, in many instances, incursions have turned into encroachments.

It is obvious that the purpose of this new version of Beijing’s

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Figure 1 : Indo-Tibet Border and Figure 2 : Claim Lines in the its Sector wise Points of Western Sector Contention Notably, South of Aksai Chin, PRC’s Claim Line spills over the Emergence of the LAC Kailash Range and its Southern slopes right up to the Indus River. In the Western Sector, the line Then, near the village of New separating the Indian Army and Demckok, it turns South-West the PLA on 08 September 1962, towards Chumur, upstream along prior to the latter’s full scale the Charding Nala - a Southern offensive in October-November, is tributary of Indus River. However, indicated by blue line in the in 1962, PLA did not attempt to Sketch 2. By the time PRC reach their Claim Line in this declared unilateral ceasefire on 22 area, except that Demchok was November, the PLA had pushed occupied temporarily. Therefore, into Indian territory up to their barring Village Demchok, starting Claim Line at six points, as shown from the Northern tip of Kailash in amber-blue dashes in Sketch 2. Range, the Border Line, as it These points, as marked on Map 3, bulges to encompass the Lam are the Chip Chap Valley, Galwan Basin and then runs towards Valley, Kongka La, Sirijap, Chumur before turning South Chushul and Demchok. towards Shipki La in Himachal Pradesh, is not in dispute. These areas therefore did not see any action.

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Sogma (Qizil Zilga) and Rudog (Ngari, Garr). From those camps, they patrolled up to the points which they had captured in 1962. Accordingly, Indian border forces held back short of these points while patrolling up to the 08 September 1962 Line.

Over time, patrol limits between Map 3: Points of Ingress in the the border forces on either side got Western Sector established and the Indian version of the LAC emerged thus. In the After the ceasefire, Beijing, while Aksai Chin area, the LAC skirts repudiating the proposals relating those points on PRC’s Claim Line to military disengagement that up to which the PLA had pushed was worked out under the into Indian territory in November ‘Colombo Plan’, offered “not to 1962 before vacating these. In establish even civilian check posts other areas, the LAC runs in previously-held Indian strong between that Claim Line and the points”, stipulating further that, 08 September 1962 Line. In rest of “India would have to return to the South-Eastern Ladakh, existing military positions along barring the abandoned village of the entire frontier and refrain Old Demchok, the LAC conforms from placing civilian check posts to the International Boundary in previously-held Chinese areas” (IB). It is important to note here (sic). Thus while the matter was that New Delhi, wary of provoking left inconclusive, PLA Border Beijing after the mauling received Guards located themselves in their in 1962, settled her limit of control better liveable camps much to the short of the locations which had East into Aksai Chin, the key been captured by the PLA troops bases being located astride the in 1962. So there is no question of Western Tibet Highway – at any ‘difference of perception’, not

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 49 for India in any case; this term Himachal Pradesh-Tibet Border, a may be but a Chinese ruse to slip that she may presently be extend their control up to an covering up by assertive probes in ‘amplified’ version of their Claim the Southern end of Ladakh, on Line. either ends of the Demchok- Charding La-Ukdung La-Lam It is simple to appreciate that in Basin-Chumur Salient. order to keep the Xinjinag-Tibet Western Highway secure from In the Central Sector, there was possible Indian interdiction, PRC’s no military conflict in 1962, Claim Line in Aksai Chin is though parts of the IB in Thag La, aligned in a manner that, one, the Rimkhim, Barahoti and India- Highway remains beyond India’s Nepal-Tibet Tri-Junction are tactical strike range, and two, the contested. India continued to

Highway is In the Central Sector, there was patrol this Border accorded additional no military conflict in 1962, Line as established protection from though parts of the IB in Thag by geography and La, Rimkhim, Barahoti and dominating ridge- India-Nepal-Tibet Tri-Junction traditional usage, lines running are contested. while the PLA between the border occasionally and the Highway, namely, the intruded into the Barahoti Plains Karakoram Range in the North where the Indians had been and the Kailash Range in the congregating annually to hold East. PRC’s unconventional idea of religious worship and fair. The identifying mountainous LAC was defined thus. borderlines along valleys rather than peaks and watersheds is In the Eastern Sector, PLA meant to foster that plan. withdrew to the North of the well Apparently, Beijing did not think defined McMahon Line. This Line of claiming similar ridge-lines to was drawn according to a formal buffer her salient lying South of agreement concluded at Shimla in the Chumur Area and the new 1914 by the representatives of highway that runs to Shipki La on Tibetan, Chinese and Indian

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Governments, though it was LAC is advanced to as much as it neither delineated nor ratified by can be to coincide with PRC’s the then Republican Government Claim Lines, and some more – the of China. Besides the legality of Demchok-Charding La-Lam the Line, PRC has further decided Basin-Chumur Salient in to context the fixation of its Southern Ladakh, to wit. PLA’s coordinates in Thag La- incursions and encroachments Khinjemane (Zimithang/Tawang across the LAC and the IB are but Sector), Longju-Taksing (Asaphi recourses to pave the way for that La-Subansiri Sector), Choglagam- gain. Fish Tails (Hayuliang Sector) and Diphu La (Walong Sector) areas. Gradually, as Sino-Indian Nevertheless, the LAC in this relations eased, there have been Sector is defined as the McMahon certain ‘Confidence Building Line; there is no case for ‘differing Measures’ agreed upon in 1993, perceptions’ here too. 1996, 2005 and 2012. Certain amplifications on conduct to Alignment of the LAC patrolling were also signed in Oct 2013 under the Border Defence It is clear that contrary to the Cooperation Agreement (BDCA). newfound advocacy, there is no However, these understandings ambiguity in the Indian version of have been subject to differential the LAC - Beijing is well aware of interpretations as it suits the PLA; its alignment. Similarly, it is such arbitrary behaviour has done difficult to digest that Beijing is little to instil any degree of unaware of the line up to which confidence in the Indian mind. All the PLA had advanced in 1962, this while, PLA’s build up of and is therefore unable to specify military oriented infrastructure it. Duplicity therefore lies in along the Indo-Tibet Border has Beijing’s remaining uncommitted continued at brisk pace, even as on her version of the LAC Beijing expects India to desist alignment. Obviously, that from following her example. commitment is pended till the

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Having taken stock of the specs of snow to painfully pit at escalating contention regarding exposed skin, water sources few the LAC, we may now turn to and far between and altitude examine the nuances associated sicknesses add to the misery of with the recent incidents of, first, survival in these areas – nature the transgressions across, and does not welcome human second, the encroachments into intruders here. Vehicular the areas controlled by India after trafficability over larger parts of the 1962 War. the remote plateau, its gradual slopes and wide open passes across Encroachments in the Western the intervening ridges are the Sector saving grace. The Aksai Chin part of the Western Sector – Sub-Sector We have seen that after the North – is however an exception, ceasefire in the It is an oxygen starved, treeless access to it being Western Sector the extreme high altitude desert blocked by the PLA had been table-land where temperatures Southern tail of the plummet down between minus venturing out from five to minus fifty five degrees formidable their camps to Centigrade. Karakoram Ranges patrol westwards and the passes once or twice a month, and as to across it being open only to foot or how had the LAC crystallised over mule movement during the five time. Even if the altitudes in this summer months. Here, few Sector too range around 4500 vehicles, air dropped across these metres, the terrain characteristics ranges on to the Aksai Chin are quite different from that of the plateau, help the purpose of Eastern Sector. It is an oxygen surveillance, albeit limited, over starved, treeless extreme high the LAC. altitude desert table-land where temperatures plummet down Till about the Year 2003-04, between minus five to minus fifty incursions across the LAC had not five degrees Centigrade. Hundred risen to disconcerting proportions, kilometre per hour winds carrying neither had any reckonable

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 52 encroachment, apart from the Old area into a newfound dispute, the Demchok Village, been found. The purpose being to gobble up the situation changed with the change entire Indian salient of Demchok- of the power coterie at Beijing. Charding La-Ukdung La-Lam Incidents of incursions and Basin-Chumur in Southern banner-waving drill rose sharply, Ladakh. Beijing’s stratagem of and Ladakhi herders were often ‘creeping migration’ towards her chased away from many of their Claim Line, ‘amplified’ this time, traditional grazing grounds near in the face of a pusillanimous the LAC. In 2010, PLA demanded Indian State, found expression stoppage of a track construction thus. under the Area Development Plan near Demchok area, well within In mid-April of 2013, PLA set up a the LAC. Under the excuse of camp 19 kilometres West of the maintaining tranquillity at the LAC, in ‘Raki Nala’ area of border, New Delhi gave in, much Depsang Plains in Eastern to the chagrin of the locals. At Ladakh. The incursion was noticed about the same time, road building after some ten days, and a activity was detected on the vociferous media caused much Northern bank of Pangong Tso consternation among the Indian (Lake) across the LAC at Sirijap- public. Having no ability to evict Yu La area, which finally emerged the incursion by force in the face of as a blacktop road running five PLA’s inevitable recourse to kilometres into Indian territory. ‘counter-attack in self-defence’, Indeed, New Delhi did not find New Delhi acted sensibly to keep any compunction in her border Beijing in good humour through forces having to abandon, under diplomatic sweeteners. A assertive demonstrations of the magnanimous China then decided PLA, patrolling over many of the to let India off in return for a areas astride the Indian side of the token offering in the form of LAC and then playing down the dismantling some rudimentary regular affront. Encouraged thus, ‘bunkers’ (sangar) in Chumur Beijing next brought the Chumur area. A crisis was averted thus.

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However, Beijing’s purpose of Simultaneously, in Demchok area, pushing away the LAC in PRC’s PLA troops herded a group of favour had been met, thereby hapless Tibetans from the village bringing her two major of Zhangxigang situated some 25 advantages: One, in Southern kilometres East of the LAC, to Ladakh, India has had to demonstrate against Ladakh acknowledge the existence of a administration’s attempts to carry new dispute over what is actually out certain irrigation works across an IB; and Two, in Aksai Chin, the Charding Nala, which as India has lost control over a swath described earlier, is a Southern of her territory in the Raki Nala tributary of the Indus River and area. falls well within the LAC. Indian border forces Many analysts saw Many analysts saw these two responded to both these two incidents incidents as Beijing’s these provocations as Beijing’s authoritative decrees that New according to the Delhi could not help but authoritative reconcile with, and therefore an mutually settled decrees that New indication of future ‘operating Delhi could not developments ominous in procedure’. The content and dangerous in help but reconcile fallouts. ‘stand-off’ lasted all with, and therefore through Chinese an indication of future President Xi Jinping’s visit and developments ominous in content some more days, before PLA and dangerous in fallouts. That agreed to vacate the Chumur dark apprehension came true in encroachment in return for Sep 2014 when incursions in removal of certain sangars; Chumur area morphed into a five development work in Demchok, of kilometre deep encroachment by course, was abandoned, or so it PLA Border Guard Regiment seems. troops, accompanied with track construction into Indian territory Encroachments in the Eastern and razing of Indian border forces’ Sector defensive stone walls.

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The Eastern Sector of India’s restrictions on flying due to which Northern Border should actually air maintenance of the posts and be referred to as an IB, but air surveillance over the Border is Beijing’s parroting seems to have more hazardous than not. The trapped New Delhi into only saving grace is the existence occasionally referring to it as of vegetation up to altitudes of ‘LAC’. The Border runs astride a 4000 metres or so and abundance terrain that is extremely difficult of fresh water; these blessings to traverse. It is approachable only makes it bearable to breathe and along the five distinct and survive. mutually isolated river valleys and their equal number of smaller The plateau-land across the tributaries which run North to McMahon Line is much less down South from watersheds hazardous. Besides, PLA has situated on the McMahon Line. developed elaborate logistic The last 80-100 kilometres to the infrastructure close to the Border Border is particularly hazardous Line. Under these conditions, it is to traverse; peak altitudes above difficult to monitor all acts of 5300 meters separated by narrow, incursion by the PLA Border steep valleys 1000 metres or so Guard units. Encroachments are deep, vast distances to be however, detectable when periodic traversed over foot tracks that border patrols stumble upon these. literally cling to steep and slippery In 1967, an encroachment had mountainous slopes, foggy and been attempted at Nathu La (East damp weather and sub-zero Sikkim) before being thwarted by temperatures adding up to the the Indian Army troops. One challenge the soldiers, already encroachment at Taksing area burdened with loads of 30-34 (Subansiri Sector) had been kilograms, have to tackle. Border noticed in 1976, a part of which at surveillance posts are far between Longju-Bisa remains occupied by and completely isolated from each the PLA. Then, in 1986, an other. Unstable weather and encroachment North of the heavy wind-streams impose severe Wangdung Post (Zimithang

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Sector) was intercepted midway. This led to the Army reinforcing Notably, PLA’s vacation of an and blocking PLA’s further ingress encroachment is never full, even in what came to be referred as the after vacation it operates at least ‘Sumdorong Chu incident’. Though till half the way, thus halted, PLA refused to vacate the compensating itself for its area already encroached upon, troubles. claiming it to be to the South of the McMahon Line. Similar Managing the Situation encroachments and attempts to establish camps further into Beijing’s game plan is obvious; it is Indian territory have been to push the LAC forward to merge detected during the past six years it with the recently amplified or so, and version of her Beijing’s game plan is obvious; countered - it is to push the LAC forward to Claim Line, and partially by India’s merge it with the recently then settle the protestations but amplified version of her Claim matter by her Line, and then settle the mostly by hostility matter by her ‘generous’ ‘generous’ of an unliveable acceptance of the LAC as the acceptance of the terrain. IB. LAC as the IB. To that end, short of Recent reports indicate that PLA hard military action, Beijing has commenced its attempts to would continue with assertive ingress across the McMahon Line patrolling and encroachments to at Thag La (Zimithang Sector), push into Indian controlled Fish Tails (Hayuliang Sector) and territory as much as she can, Diphu La area (Walong Sector); before taking a call on military the first turning into imposition. India’s response to the encroachment and the latter two PLA’s new found border activism vacated on their own after two has been mixed - stoic at the weeks of camping. May be, there ground level and reasoned at the have been more such ingresses, political space, but defensive undetected. overall. There is no other option

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 56 actually. By its sustained precariously. India would have to disorientation from military wield these measures wisely, at security, the Indian State has times reinforced by resolute placed itself in a situation where military posturing short of forceful stonewalling of PLA’s provoking sensitivities on either ingress is out of question - not till side, to stall PRC’s ‘creeping at least a decade is devoted to migration’ into Indian territory. revival of its atrophied military But in the final analysis, build up power. Resultantly, diplomacy, of military prowess is imperative with due deference, to raise for India to be taken seriously indulgence in Beijing’s demeanour enough, and so to halt PRC’s remains the only course left for territorial usurpation. New Delhi to deal with PRC’s agenda. Meanwhile, with every Recently we have witnessed encroachment, even the vacated institution of certain additional ones, a swath of territory turns measures to manage the border out-of-bounds for the wary Indian dispute. Similarly, there has been border forces, inter alia a welcome toning down in Beijing’s conforming to PRC’s inching hegemonic harangue at her towards its amplified Claim Line. neighbours. This development The rudder is completely under points, not to a change of heart in Beijing’s control. Beijing, but a realisation that her military activism in the The saving grace comes from neighbourhood might have been Beijing herself. Thus instituted at pre-mature, and that has triggered her behest over the years have coalescence of alliances among her been five sets of measures towards tormented neighbours. But confidence building and avoidance whatever be the decision making of armed confrontation on the body in PRC, policies over its LAC. Even if compliance of these territorial claims are not likely to remain more or less at the PLA’s change ever. To that extent, any discretion, there is some ground hope of let up from Chinese given to India to stand, if

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 57 assertiveness may not be is the only course to keep her in entertained. control; China’s neighbours have to learn to live with this Standing up to China’s discomfiture. highhandedness without provoking her aggressive instincts Back to Contents

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DEFENCE Imperatives of Defence Modernisation and Indigenisation - Vice Admiral (Retd) Raman Puri* elf Reliance in defence advanced technologies. To achieve production has been a this, we need a Force Development S national goal set since the Strategy based on Defence 1950’s. Post 1971, it was Planning Guidelines .Such quantified as reversing the ratio of guidelines would be based on the indigenous production to imports National Security Strategy which which was in the ratio of 30:70 to defines the Roles and Missions of 70;30. However, on the ground, the Armed Forces in a future the situation has not changed. On timeframe. The current system, as the contrary, after more than 40 codified in the Long Term years, the level of imports has only Perspective Plan bases the increased. There are many causes modernisation needs on the for the present situation and in Raksha Mantri’s ops directive the order of their significance, which only visualizes current these are :- contingencies.

A very incorrect approach to The above leads to a very faulty Acquisition Planning which is not acquisition system tuned to tuned to meeting future largely covering the current voids, challenges. Modernisation by and necessarily results in definition should be a process of procurements, especially in the creating military wherewithal to case of the army, which are prevail at the locust of termed as urgent operational and engagements (which may be inescapable requirements or virtual in future) foreseen on a requirements that are needed to rolling basis over the next decade make up force levels approved (at the least) and possibly two decades ago. The Government is decades in many cases in a then in fact coerced into a buy/ buy country like India with a complex and make route which cannot lead geopolitical situation at hand and to meaningful indigenization and with very limited access to

* Vice Admiral (Retd) Raman Puri, Distinguished Fellow, VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 59 self reliance and even covering the operational voids these continue to current voids for reasons exist .Also while this system explained below. Except for one to designed to fill existing voids one replacement of imported carries on, new voids emerge and spares and aggregates whose are recognized. manufacturing technology is transferred, no other As regards indigenization, it may indigenisation by and large takes be mentioned that by definition it place. Indigenisation which gives is a process of converting raw us a design to build capability is materials into equipment and possible only in systems developed systems acceptable to the user domestically. The Navy with its such that we do not need to go to integral design capability has done the OEM for deep repair/ better though in the crucial upgradation of the system and requirement of combat and main then productionising them(Mark propulsion systems, its indigenous II and so on.) Joint Ventures /TOT quotient is average agreements with a to poor. Substantial procurement lead production agency times exist even for foreign in essentially result production Buy/ Buy and Substantial Make/Make even with JV in Licence procurement lead programmes. Production and times exist even for cannot meet the foreign in production Buy/ Buy goals of indigenization. This is as and Make/Make even with JV the design technology is not programmes. RFI, Firming up the transferred and is very difficult to QR, AON, Issue of RFP, Trials & transfer anyway because the evaluation in different terrain and process of technology development climatic conditions, OEM remains opaque and critical design selection, price &contract is all held closely by the OEM or negotiations have to take place, on as a result of its country’s policies. completion of which there is a lead time to supply in various phases The Systems and production with increasing indigenous technologies released to the production content. Our country will further be governed experience is that the start of by the Wassenaar Arrangement delivery can take 6-8 years and (WA),the Export Control regimes more so that while procurements in place and the OEM’s internal are initiated to cover immediate policies, so that critical sub

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 60 systems and aggregates continue degraded the industries capability to be OEM supply. This is so for to productionise indigenously example in the SU 30, 4phase TOT developed systems. case and enhanced FDI or It can, however, be established otherwise will not substantially that considerable technology base alter this situation has been established in the country including in the private Finally, transfer of technology sector as the IGMDP (Missiles based on licensed production of Systems), LCA, MBT, ATV systems even with joint ventures Lakshya, Naval Projects and result in a built to prints others have matured and have capability which implies that a been productionised\ are in the system in production elsewhere is process of productionisation after productionised by an industry trials and evaluation. It is this (public of private) in India through base that can now deliver results transfer of production drawings in many areas in a 5 to 10 year and software programs. The time frame and as a matter of design and development aspects policy concentrated upon. Many remain opaque. This is very structural and process changes different for prototype to will be required and projects production capability required of related to Mission Needs approved the industry when productionising in a 5 to 10 year and more time indigenously developed systems frame depending on the where prototype drawings through Technology Readiness Levels in some iterations as trials progress the country as is the practice all have to be converted to production over the world. These are, standard drawings by the however, worth making if we are industry. There are some to have a self-reliant and exceptions like Bharat Electronics affordable armed force which but largely industry in India is underpins our foreign and internal tuned to license production. It can policy objectives with confidence. be said that excessive dependence on license production has Back to Contents

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ECONOMY A Perspective on India’s Approach to the G20 Summit 2014

- Brig (Retd) Vinod Anand & Sobha Menon*

Having come to power on the Asian financial crisis or the global slogan of development and growth, meltdown of 2008. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s approach to the issues to be The G20, also known as the Group discussed at the G20 Leaders’ of 20, which was formed in 1999 as Summit 2014 on November 15 and an expanded and more inclusive 16 in Brisbane will be influenced version of the club of rich nations by domestic priorities, while at the called G8, has given developing same time taking into account the nations a more powerful voice in realities of the international contributing to decision-making system and relations. Not that about global economic issues. there will be any major departure What began with G7 as an in India’s economic policies: As informal get-together of finance stressed by him, sustainable ministers and central bankers is growth, job creation, today a forum that represents two- infrastructure development and thirds of the world's people and 85 food security are Modi’s major per cent of the world economy. The priorities, most of which rhyme Asian economic slump—which well with the goals of the G20—a hurt most the ASEAN nations, forum of the world’s 20 major besides Hong Kong, South Korea economies. There continue to be and Japan—was the first to differences among the developed indicate how a global economic countries and the emerging system, skewed in favour of some economies of the G20 on the way powerful nations, could negatively to respond to the persisting impact the weaker economies. weaknesses in the world economy. However, it was the financial India’s position of strength, in this crisis of 2008 that was the biggest context, lies in the fact that it was motivating factor in giving more not much affected by the 1997 importance to the G20. Triggered off by the trillions of dollars of * Brig (Retd) Vinod Anand is Senior Fellow, VIF & Sobha Menon is an independent financial journalist

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 62 debts incurred by the investment benefits the rich countries to the banks of Wall Street, it had detriment of the growing wreaked havoc in North America, economies, it was about time that Europe and Japan. the G20 took centre stage.

In marshalling a response to the For India, there’s a lot to gain crisis (and to prevent future ones), from the deliberations at the the US invited the G20, not the summit. The country accounts for G8, to Washington. Under the just about 3 per cent of world GDP circumstances, that was expected: and an even smaller share of After all, it’s the growth of Brazil, world trade. One of the goals of Russia, India, China (the BRIC the new government is to improve countries) and now South Africa those numbers, and being a part of that has driven the global the G20’s deliberations can go a economy; the G8 countries are long way in helping achieve that. growing slower. Therefore, the BRICS countries New Developments were seen to be For India, there’s a lot to gain from the deliberations at the In the run up to the critical for ensuring summit. The country accounts G20 Summit, a continued global for just about 3 per cent of number of economic world GDP and an even smaller economic prosperity. share of world trade. developments, such Prior to the financial collapse on as the formation of the New Wall Street, the leaders of the G8 Development Bank by BRICS and would meet and decide on global the China-sponsored Asian economic issues without much Infrastructure Development interference from the BRICS Bank—of which India is also a countries. However, these founding member—has been countries have grown in unpalatable to the West, especially importance as they cater to the the US. These institutions are needs of the G8 countries: Russia being seen as direct competitors to provides most of the natural gas to the western-dominated IMF and Europe, China manufactures for World Bank as also the Asian the US, and India has its high tech Development Bank. services. With growing concern From the Indian perspective, the among developing countries that huge requirement of funds for its the world’s financial architecture infrastructure development has to

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 63 be sourced from as many sources of many an emerging economy. as possible. In the current Five These reforms had been agreed Year Plan, India needs one trillion upon in 2010 and reaffirmed at the US dollars for infrastructure G20 leaders’ agreement in St development. According to a World Petersburg last year. However, the Bank estimate, developing US has not yet ratified the reforms economies spend one trillion USD and the G20 is expected to urge it a year on infrastructure currently, to do so. but maintaining current growth rates and meeting future demands If the reforms are carried out, will require an additional one India’s quota share will rise to trillion USD per year through 2.75 per cent from 2.44 per cent, 2020. With this in view, India has taking it to the eighth position been stressing that the G20 from no. 11 now. Its voting share countries should look for ways to will rise to 2.63 per cent from 2.34 recapitalize multilateral per cent.1 development banks (MDBs), such as the World Bank. Where large- scale funding for infrastructure In short, India’s concerns at the development is the need of the G20 summit will be largely the hour, the MDBs’ dispensation, at same as last year. They will present, is meagre. include:

 Rebalancing global governance by reforming India is also committed to financial institutions (and maintaining a strong and getting the US to ratify some adequately resourced of the reforms agreed to in International Monetary Fund 2010) (IMF). And so, the government as  Reforming the global well as other G20 countries need financial and monetary to push for reforms in the IMF’s systems to provide better governance and quota system— financial safety nets which reflects a country’s  Checking global macro economic size and hence its voting imbalances power. The reforms will take into  Ensuring lines of credit and account the growth in the export finance to developing emerging economies and will, countries therefore, improve the quota share

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 Checking any protectionist in 2017-2018, subject to measures and completion of necessary legislative  Widening the current agenda procedures. This will provide a to include developmental step-change in the G20’s ability to issues tackle and deter tax evasion and avoidance through cross-border Some Key Concerns for India arrangements.

The eradication of corruption and The G20 finance ministers also bringing back of black money resolved to expedite the OECD's stashed by many Indians in banks latest Base Erosion and Profit abroad were some of the election Shifting (BEPS) action plan—this promises which ensured Modi’s is a move that will make it victory. In this matter, New Delhi difficult for multinationals to shift is in sync with the G20’s profits from one jurisdiction to endeavours on the exchange of another to save taxes. India has financial been impacted information among The eradication of corruption negatively by many and bringing back of black financial centres, money stashed by many of the tax that facilitate tax Indians in banks abroad were avoidance methods evasion at present. some of the election promises used by some An automatic which ensured Modi’s victory. prominent exchange of multinationals. financial information annually and access to dated information on India is also looking to benefit request are on the cards. from the G20’s move to create a Global Infrastructure Initiative To put pressure on these offshore which will help boost quality financial centres, the G20 has investment and growth in the asked them to commit to the new infrastructure sector. This norm well in time for the Brisbane initiative is expected to summit. At the preliminary meet complement the World Bank of G20 finance ministers and Group’s efforts in developing a central bank governors in Cairns Global Infrastructure Facility in September, it was decided that (GIF), which will help the private the global initiative to stamp out sector in developing economies tax evasion through automatic raise infrastructure investment information exchange would begin from some of the world’s largest

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 65 banks and funding agencies. minimize foreign borrowing costs World Bank Group President Jim and hedge exposure to currency Yong Kim has said that the GIF rate risks. was being designed to tap into expertise from within and outside Indian finance ministry officials of the WBG and deliver complex are of the view that the volatility public-private infrastructure in the external environment is projects that no single institution worrisome, and there is a need for could address on its own. the G20 to seek collaborative solutions with guidance from the India also wants the G20 to IMF. consider creating currency swap lines to protect currencies of Meanwhile, there has been a call emerging economies against from environmental activists to excessive volatility caused by any include climate change on the withdrawal of the U.S. Federal G20’s agenda, but Australian Reserve's monetary stimulus. One Prime Minister Tony Abbott has instance was the alarming categorically stated that the depreciation of the rupee last year Brisbane summit’s priority would when the Fed first signalled that it be global economic growth and not would reverse ‘quantitative the environment. The Indian easing’. This is an unconventional government’s stand too is no monetary policy which allows a different. The United Nations central bank to purchase Climate Change Conference in securities and increase the money Lima, Peru, after all, is slated just supply in the market. The sudden a couple of weeks after the G20 exit from such policies can be summit. damaging to the growth of emerging economies. Indian State of Economy interlocutors like the Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram The recent G20 finance ministers’ Rajan have called for rich nations meeting at Cairns also reiterated to take greater account of the the group’s commitment to develop spillover effects of their monetary new measures that aim to lift the policies on emerging markets. In collective GDP by 1.8 to 2 per cent the current uncertain economic by 2018. This is expected to add environment, currency swap two trillion dollars to the world facilities between countries help economy in the next four years.

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The contribution of India and the Jinping and Britain's David other emerging economies of G20 Cameron) among the G20 leaders is likely to be much more than to address the Australian that of the developed economies. Parliament. Modi will also travel India’s GDP growth is showing an to Sydney to address people of upward trajectory of 5.6 per cent Indian origin at Olympic Park in in 2014 and 6.4 per cent in 2015, an event that is expected to be according to IMF’s projections. similar to the Madison Square Garden experience during his US In a global economic environment visit. The overall objective is to that still faces persistent paint a positive India story and weaknesses in demand and supply invite investment. Strengthening side constraints that hamper India’s relationship with Australia growth, G20 foreign ministers forms part of the ‘Act East Policy’ declared they were united and of the new government. determined in their Modi will also response to these Modi will also travel to Sydney challenges. to address people of Indian travel to Fiji where origin at Olympic Park in an no Indian PM has Some Strategic event that is expected to be visited since 1981. similar to the Madison Square Aspects People of Indian Garden experience during his origin make up US visit. Prime Minister over 35 per cent of Modi will travel to Australia for Fiji’s population. the G20 Leaders’ Summit after Modi is expected to use the attending the ASEAN-India opportunity to meet many other Summit and the East Asia leaders of the region and Summit in Myanmar. He will have strengthen the existing ties the a bilateral meet with Australian country has in the South Pacific Prime Minister Tony Abbott, who region. As it happens, President Xi recently visited India and signed a will also be travelling to Fiji at the Civil Nuclear Cooperation same time. Agreement that enables supply of The Prime Minister is likely to uranium to India; it had been have bilateral meetings with denied so far due to geo-political German Chancellor Angela Merkel constraints. Modi will be one of the and British Prime Minister David three visiting dignitaries (other Cameron on the sidelines on the two being Chinese President Xi

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G20 Summit. There could also be multilateral platform) because of other bilateral or multilateral the contrasting interests and meets (for instance BRICS)— objectives of developed and however, there is little information emerging economies. Having on those meetings. The agenda for observed how such international all such meetings will be mostly institutions have been used by economic, but strategic dominant powers to push through underpinnings are also likely. their views, India would like to be a participant in defining new Concluding Observations international norms that guide such institutions. This is part of a For India, G-20 is an important strategy of broadening India’s platform to show to the world its options in exercising influence in capabilities in helping shape different areas. international agendas, especially those which affect it economically. 1 http://www.business- With 19 of the largest economies standard.com/article/economy- and the EU as members, the policy/us-reluctance-forces-imf-to- institution carries enough weight put-off-fresh-quota-reforms- to be able to bring about changes 114012400236_1.html on a global arena. But then consensus among the members is lacking (which is not surprising as Back to Contents it is characteristic of any

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NEIGHBOURHOOD Wagah attack: New Groups Reviving Terrorist Activities in Pakistan - Gaurav Dixit* n one of the deadliest attack to backdrop of a steady decline in hit Pakistan in several terrorist attacks over the last four I months, a suicide bomber months, especially in Pakistan’s detonated explosives near a Punjab province which has Pakistani paramilitary checkpoint witnessed a decline with an near Wagah border in Punjab average of 1.75 attacks per month province on November 2, killing at as against 4.5 before the army least 60 and injuring over 100 operation began. Although low in persons. number of incidents, it had inflicted severe casualties. The blast took place at a According to South Asia Terrorism checkpoint near the Indo-Pak Portal (SATP), Punjab in 2014 has border when hundreds of people recorded a total of 162 fatalities, were returning from a military including 122 civilians, 18 forces ceremony carried out by both the as against 55 fatalities, including Pakistani and the Indian military 43 civilians, four Security on their respective sides of the personnel in the corresponding border. Soon after the attack, the period of 2013. Punjab also Pakistani Taliban (TTP) claimed recorded four suicide attacks, responsibility for the bombing. resulting in 82 fatalities, as Two other militant groups - against no such attack in the Jundullah and the Jamat-ul- corresponding period of 2013. Ahrar, a splinter group of the TTP, laid claims for the attack. It is not Overall, Pakistan has witnessed a clear yet which group actually decline in number of casualties for carried out attack. However, the the first 10 months of this year- rise and possible involvement of 1,369 civilians have been killed in Jamat-ul-Ahrar can be seen in a terrorist attacks in Pakistan, larger context which can have compared with 2,845 in the same cataclysmic impact on Pakistan. period last year. The incident took place in the The Wagah attack cannot be seen * Gaurav Dixit is an independent strategic analyst

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 69 in isolation as it points towards powerful senior leader of the TTP. growing instability in Punjab Its cadres comprise mostly from province. The attackers have sent the Mohmand Agency and claim to strong signals by this spectacular have the support of 70 to 80 per attack, the deadliest since cent of TTP commanders and September 2013, when more than fighters1. 100 people were killed at a church in the northwestern city of Internal differences and tensions Peshawar. The recent attack has within TTP had been growing ever exhibited the terrorists’ intention since the group's leader, to carry out attacks on some Hakimullah Mehsud, was killed in crucial location in Punjab such as a U.S. drone strike in November Wagah Border. 2013. The battle for power along with difference in Few security The attackers have sent strong functioning, experts believed signals by this spectacular adherence to that the attack was attack, the deadliest since Islamic laws as aimed at September 2013, when more well as differences establishing the than 100 people were killed at in ideologies and Jamat-ul-Ahrar’s a church in the northwestern over war with city of Peshawar. The recent supremacy over attack has exhibited the Pakistan army had other Taliban terrorists’ intention to carry created much factions. Rivalry out attacks on some crucial fissures in the TTP between various location in Punjab such as movement. groups in pursuit of Wagah Border. their extremist The result had goals has been a key factor in been three major split in last one inflicting maximum civilian and year including the crucial split of economic losses in the past. Jamat-ul-Ahrar. In February, Ahrar-ul-Hind, headed by Series of Splits and rise of Jamat- Maulana Qasim, a former leader ul -Ahrar in the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, was formed after the TTP opened peace Jamat-ul-Ahrar is a splinter group talks with the Pakistani founded during August 2014. The government2. Within few months, group is led by former TTP leaders unhappy with the dictatorship of such as Ihsanullah Ihsan, the the central leadership of the TTP, former spokesman of the TTP, and the Mehsud tribe led by Said Khan Omar Khurasani, another Sajna decided to break up with the

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TTP following Mullah Fazlullah’s diverting from the aim and (chief of TTP) May 14 decision of ideologies of TTP and following sacking Sajna as the Ameer of the un-Islamic activities like South Waziristan chapter of the kidnapping for ransom. TTP TTP3. leadership under Fazlullah is also accused of being involved in the The latest break of Jamat-ul- killing of its commanders Nadeem Ahrar has been the biggest split Abbas, Asmatullah Shaheen since formation of TTP in 2007. Bhittani, Tariq Mansoor and 200 The new group includes TTP fighters of the Mehsud tribe5. The factions from the tribal agencies of differences in TTP ranks further Mohmand, Bajaur, Khyber, and deepen under attack by the Arakzai, and the districts of security forces during the military Charsadda, Peshawar, and operation Zarb-e-Azb, many SwatError! Bookmark not blaming Fazlullah of weak defined.. Additionally, Ahrar ul- leadership. Hind has now merged with Jamat- ul-Ahrar. According to Pakistani Recently, TTP faced another blow intelligence chief, majority of when Punjab Chapter (Punjabi Taliban commanders in Pakistan Taliban) leader Asmatullah have broken away from the Muawiya announced termination group's leadership in a feud over of its militant activity in Pakistan an army offensive in the country4. and intention to limit its militant activity to Afghanistan. Later, The split was long overdue as the TTP commander Abu Basir tension was mounting between the declared Asmatullah as an ISI TTP chief Maulana Fazlullah and agent. Jamat-ul-Ahrar has the Mohmand Agency chapter claimed support of Commander Chief Omar Khalid Khurasani, Abu Ibrahim of the Punjabi finally leading to termination of Taliban. Khalid Khurasani. The reason cited for termination was for Strengthening Jamat-ul-Ahrar indiscipline and for patronizing and trouble ahead ‘suspicious’ militant groups such as Ahrar ul Hind and Junood Jamat-ul-Ahrar claims to have Khorasan. dozens of Punjabi fighters. “The majority of our fighters in the Omar Khalid Khurasani has Punjab are highly educated accused TTP leadership of people”, said a member of the

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 71 group6. The merger of Ahrar-ul- transnational groups fighting in Hind, a group with strong hold in Afghanistan & Uzbekistan. Punjab with Jamat-ul-Ahrar, and good relation with Junad-e-Hafza, Jamat-ul-Ahrar has earlier another shadowy organization welcomed Al Qaeda chief Ayman based in Punjab has made Jamat- Al Zawahiri’s announcement of the ul-Ahrar presence stronger in the launch of a South Asian branch of Punjab. Ahrar-ul-Hind has been the terror network. Al Qaeda has involved in some of the most longstanding links with anti-India brutal and spectacular attacks in terrorist groups including the 2014 including attack on an dreaded Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) Islamabad district court on March operating from Punjab. On the 3. On March 13, the group claimed other hand few factions of TTP deadly attacks in Peshawar and have pledged their support for Quetta which killed a total of 19 Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (IS). Al-Zawahiri and the core of al people7. Qaeda are locked in The splinter group Al Qaeda has longstanding battle with IS for is itching to project links with anti-India terrorist the leadership of power and groups including the dreaded the global jihadist establish itself in Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) movement. This Punjab, primarily operating from Punjab. could further in urban areas intensify the battle which has been stronghold of now for supremacy in Pakistan. merged Ahrar-ul-Hind. The struggle for power between the As these groups are unwilling to factions as well as other groups negotiate with the Pakistani has turned violent in the past and government and have vowed to could be expected to continue. continue attacks in the country, Earlier this year, Sajna and the possibility of more bloodbaths Sheryar groups of the TTP have in the region cannot be ruled out. been involved in violent infighting Pakistan is now confronted with a in order to control South scenario where Al-Qaeda in Waziristan’s Mehsud tribal area. alliance with these splinter groups Similar infighting can be expected on one hand and inter group in Punjab which is home to at rivalry on other hand might create least 57 terrorist groups along more destruction in order to with being safe haven for destablise Pakistan.

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1. Zahir Shah Sherazi, “New /11077342/Pakistan-Taliban- TTP group 'Jamatul Ahrar' splits-over-war-with- breaks away from Mullah Islamabad.html Fazlullah.” Sept 04, 2014 http://www.dawn.com/news/1 5. Bureau Report, “Fazlullah 129827 has joined hands with killers of Taliban, says splinter 2. Bill Roggio, “Taliban splinter group.” Sept 05, 2014 group Jamat-ul-Ahrar forms http://www.dawn.com/news/1 in northwestern Pakistan,” 129976 26, 2014 http://www.longwarjournal.o 6. Tahir Ali, “Many term rg/archives/2014/08/taliban_s Muawiya’s quitting Taliban plinter_gro.php movement a setback.” September 15,2014 3. Amir Mir, “Split in TTP a http://nation.com.pk/islamab major blow to Mullah ad/15-Sep-2014/many-term- Fazlullah.” May 29, 2014 muawiya-s-quitting-taliban- http://www.thenews.com.pk/ movement-a-setback Todays-News-2-252761- Split-in-TTP-a-major-blow- 7. Zahir Shah Sherazi, to-Mullah-Fazlullah “Ahrarul Hind claims support of senior TTP 4. Dean Nelson and Ashfaq commanders.” July 26, 2014 Yusufzai, “Pakistan Taliban http://www.dawn.com/news/1 splits 'over war with 121608 Islamabad.” Sep 05, 2014 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/n ews/worldnews/asia/pakistan Back to Contents

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EVENTS Vimarsha on Teacher’s Day

oted educationist and over the entire generation to former NCERT Director unqualified teachers on contract N Prof J S Rajput addressed basis without any check, balance the Vimarsha programme at VIF and monitoring. Emphasizing on on the occasion of Teacher’s Day the need for a massive recruitment on September 5, 2014. drive for trained teachers at the school level, he said today more Speaking on the topic, ‘Education than 40% of the sanctioned and Teachers: Emerging teaching posts in the universities Perspectives’, he outlined the also are vacant and they need to problems Indian education is be filled up with the people who facing as a fall out of practicing have right kind of approach to Macaulay’s philosophy. He education and have the lamented that Indian education intellectual bent of mind. system is still devoid of the Quoting Dr Sarvepalli philosophy that “education has to Radhakrishnan’s words, be rooted in culture and “Intellectual work is not for all, it committed to progress”. Referring is only for the intellectually to the class structure within the competent”, he said only such schooling system, he said while on people should get a place in our the one hand many children are universities who are intellectually taking advantage of the internet, equipped and competent to handle on the other for many even the higher levels of learning, teaching basic facilities of chalk and black and research. boards are not available. We must do everything to remove this Earlier, introducing the subject, disparity and provide equal Gen. N.C. Vij, Director, VIF, opportunity to the best education underlined the need for an for one and all, he said. education system which would enable the country to emerge Prof Rajput pointed out that one of strong in the comity of nations. the main reasons for the falling Highlighting the role and standards of the education in the importance of teacher in the country was the Government’s Indian society, he pointed out the total apathy towards recruiting age old system where a teacher qualified teachers and handing occupied the same place in the life

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 74 of an individual as that of God and one owes in life – Daiva Rina, Parents. In this regard, he Pitra Rina and Guru Rina (Debt to referred to the three rinas (debts) God, Parents and Teacher).

Back to Contents

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EVENTS Book launch: “Decoding India’s Defence procurement: An Analysis of Defence Procurement Procedure 2013”

n 12 September 2014, procurement and acquisitions General Shankar including research and O Roychowdhury, PVSM, development. ADC (Retd), former Chief of the Army Staff and Member of Before the launch of the book Gen Parliament released the book NC Vij welcomed the Chief Guest ‘Decoding India’s Defence and introduced the subject. The procurement: An Analysis of book covers all aspects of Defence Defence Procurement Procedure Procurement Procedure 2013 2013’ edited by Gen NC Vij. The (DPP), the opportunities and edited volume is based on the challenges, operationalising of proceedings of a seminar DPP, the questions of Offsets and organized by the VIF wherein price negotiations, need for renowned military and civilian establishing a robust defence experts expressed their views on a industrial base, the roles of wide variety of issues connected Private and Public Sector with defence procurement. The Enterprises, need for preface of the book has been indigenization and the way ahead. written by Mr. Ajit Doval, the Release of the book was followed erstwhile Director of VIF and now by short presentations by the book the national security Advisor. In chapter contributors the final chapter a number of critical recommendations have . been listed which are relevant for Lt. Gen. JP Singh, former Chief of the policy makers and Integrated Defence Staff and also practitioners. The book release Deputy Army Chief (Policy and ceremony was attended by a large Systems) presented his analysis of number of both serving and the current state of ‘Offsets’ and retired military officers the functioning of Defence Offset representing all the services as Management Wing. He brought also other stakeholders who are aspects of revised offset guidelines concerned with defence and problems and prospects

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 76 related to same. He stressed on However, the objectives of what needs to be done further to indigenization can only be operationalise offsets that would achieved if conducive environment help us reinvigorate our defence is provided. The private industry industrial base. He gave examples was looking for a level play ground of how other countries have vis-à-vis multinational companies managed offsets successfully. And and DPSUs. He also made a he approved of the current policy number of other recommendations of asking for 30 to 50 percent of that could enhance the contract as offsets. Vice Admiral participation of the private sector Anup Singh, former Chief of in building defence systems Western Naval Command and including weapons and munitions. Deputy Chief of IDS gave out his There is a requirement of building views on establishing a Defence and nurturing private companies Industrial Base through full especially in some niche areas e.g. participation by public and private in electronic warfare or other high enterprises. He was of the view technology areas. He stressed on that a huge potential of the manufactures to develop private sector still remains technologies as any imported untapped. Capability of Defence technology would continue to be Public Sector Units (DPSU) and controlled by the foreign owner. Ordnance Factories has remained He also said that there is a need insufficient to meet the growing for a continuous dialogue with the demands of technology. He decision makers; as DPP 2014 is welcomed the announcement by being prepared no such dialogue the government in enhancing the has taken place between decision Foreign Direct Investment from 26 makers and manufacturers. to 49 percent in India’s defence industry. Gen. NC Vij gave out some of the critical recommendations that Mr. Satish Kaura, Chairman and have been made. He dwelt on Managing Director of the Samtel criticality of defence preparedness, Group, felt encouraged by the DPP need for appropriate defence 2013 and was of the view that it budget to ensure availability of will go long way in building a wherewithal for the same and strong foundation for establishing timelines for indigenization. He spoke of PM acquisitions and ensuring Modi’s drive for ‘Make in India’. accountability. He was of the view

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 77 that our modernisation plans must brought about in DPP have been also cater for timely and constant given in the book. upgradation of equipment. Indigenization has to be stressed Towards the end Gen Shankar upon with the government Roychowdhury spoke on his amplifying some of the definitions experiences during his Army of ‘Buy’, ‘Buy and Make’. tenure and difficulties regarding Forthcoming revision of DPP is defence acquisitions. He expected to go into some of these emphasized on the need for issues. Level playing field for the putting into place appropriate private manufacturers in terms of procedures for defence equal tax treatment and procurement and development of minimizing the technical and an indigenous defence industrial financial risks would encourage base. Finally, Mr. Shobit Arya, the private sector to build up publisher of the book gave a vote defence industrial base. There is of thanks and mentioned that the also a need to incentivize defence book has already attracted buyers exports where the government has from as far away places as North had some inhibitions. Many other America. additional details regarding the improvements that should be Back to Contents

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 78

EVENTS Round Table on PM Modi’s US Visit

VIF Round Table was The discussions revolved around organized on 15 September trade and economic links, defence A 2014 to deliberate on core and security cooperation, the issues in India-US relations on the evolving strategic relationship, eve of Prime Minister Narendra climate and WTO issues especially Modi’s visit to the United States. the Trade Facilitation Agreement, Ambassador Lalit Man Singh, regional security issues and global former Foreign Secretary and issues. There was a general Ambassador to the US chaired the consensus amongst the meeting while General NC Vij, participants on the Director VIF, made the aforementioned issues. Finally, a introductory remarks and set of recommendations were conducted the proceedings. Others arrived at which could serve as a present included Mr. CD Sahay, useful input for policy makers. Lt. Gen. RK Sawhney, Mr. Rajiv Kumar, Ambassadors Kanwal Sibal, TCA Rangachari, Sanjay Singh, Rajiv Sikri, Brig. Vinod Back to Contents Anand and Dr. Harinder Sekhon.

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 79

EVENTS Round Table on Cyber Security

The VIF held a Round Table initiatives. The conference Discussion on 18 Sep 2014 to extended over five sessions in a examine the national perspective single day, with a session each of cyber security in terms of social, devoted to Environmental Scan & economic, political and military National Cyber Security Policy dimensions. The panel of (NCSP), Building Comprehensive discussants, comprising a select Capabilities, Protection and group of professionals including Assurance, Cyber Warfare, and Mr Chandrashekhar, President Enablers. NASSCOM, Mr Kiran Karnik, former President NASSCOM, Dr In his opening remarks, General Gulshan Rai, Director General (Retd) NC Vij, Director VIF, CERT-In, Dr Kamlesh Bajaj, CEO, reiterated that in order to Data Security Council of India safeguard our vital national (DSCI), Dr Prem Chand, Lt Gen interests, it is imperative to invest (Retd) Davinder Kumar, Cdr in security capabilities. Security is (Retd) Mukesh Saini and Mr often viewed as a bottomless pit to Loknath Behra, among others, sink more and more money even discussed India’s lackadaisical as threat perception increases. cyber defence capabilities and the Such a perception however needs various remedial measures needed to be changed. India needs to build to bring it at par with the contemporary security capability developed nations. not only to protect its vital national interests but also to be in The team comprehensively dealt league with the developed nations. with issues such as threat Pointing to the inadequacies in the landscape in the cyber domain current NCSP, General Vij including the social media, cyber stressed on the need to address security as a strategic enabler, issues such as organization reviewing and rebooting India’s structure, military dimension and National Cyber Security Policy responsibility. He also (NCSP) and building eco system to underscored the need to build and enhance and operationalise it, position security capability as a road blocks preventing India to strategic asset where our build a robust cyber security workforce, facilities and know how capability, and major strategic can constitute a global sourcing

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 80 hub for the rest of the world to the country remains vulnerable in build next generation security the cyber domain. Part of the technologies and solutions. reason for this sorry state of affairs is because most of the The keynote address by India’s underlying equipment and present Deputy NSA, Dr Arvind technologies are not produced in Gupta highlighted the rapidly India. Mr Chandrashekhar also changing dynamic of cyber elaborated upon the issue of security and its growing linkages internet governance and the with conventional threats efforts underway in some including the nuclear threats. He countries to balkanise the particularly dwelt on the missing internet. He felt that given India’s international norms to govern the expanding influence in the global cyber space which make it even IT industry, the country is more difficult to conceptualize a uniquely placed to leverage its proper response to those threats. strength in the strategic space. He also stressed on Transparency Mr. Gulshan Rai, another and Confidence Building Measures panelist, spoke on the framework (CBMs) among key international for awareness, incident reporting, players. Dr Gupta also touched compliance, monitoring, upon the initiatives taken up for enforcement, incentives and cyber security architecture penalties. including those in the pipeline. Mr. Hemal Patel, in the second With Mr R Chandrashekhar in the session, discussed the roadmap for chair and also as a panelist, the development of indigenious opening session carried out a software, operationalisation of comprehensive review of the technologies for cyber security and NCSP, touching upon aspects such vulnerability assessment, as organization, structure, semiconductors, electronic regulatory and policy framework products and manufacturing at national and state levels for infrastructure as envisaged in the synergy and operationalisation of National Policy on Electronics, NCSP. It is paradoxical that while Dr Prem Chand gave a despite India being highly detailed presentation on the plan developed in Information and methodology for the Technology, sharing almost 52 establishment of R&D facilities, percent of the global IT market, testing laboratories, centres of

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 81 excellence and training indigenious standards and infrastructure. He also presented frameworks. We are still probably a roadmap for skill development of not catching up with the latest cyber security personnel, tackling trend so far as common criteria is crime, cyber leadership and concerned, and we stills seem to be measures to ensure retention. Dr talking about the previous version Chand said that the need to of common criteria. The last sensitize or reenergize our speaker in this session, Mr Balaji national efforts is felt strongly Venketeshwar spoke on the because cyber threats to India’s management of social networks security have outpaced our and the balance between privacy national efforts in capacity and security. Discussing social building. In this effort, the NCSP media as a potential weapon for should serve as a baseline. waging cyber war, he said we need to predictive rather than reactive The third session, chaired by Dr to the misuse of social media. Kamlesh Bajaj, CEO of the Data Security Council of India, squarely The fourth session, chaired by Lt focused on protection and Gen (Retd) Davinder Singh, assurance. This session was former Signal Officer-in-Chief represented by three speakers, Mr (Indian Army), comprehensively Lucius Lobo, Mr R Guha, and Mr dealt with the issue of military Balaji Venketeshwar. Mr Lobo dimensions of cyber domain, an remarked that while the dividing increasing phenomenon to line between civilian threats and incorporate cyber capabilities in military threats is getting the warfare doctrines across the increasingly blurred in the cyber world, especially at a time when it space, civilian security should be is feared that cyber weapons over made as strong as the military the next decade or so would have security. He also flagged the the potential to cause mass industry’s concerns vis-à-vis destruction similar to the nuclear financial fraud and other crimes weapons. The session had three committed by cyber criminals and specialists on the panel. While Lt organized gangs that are active in Gen (Retd) Aditya Singh, a former the cyber space. Dwelling on how member of the National Security India can push forward its agenda Advisory Board, made an of ‘Make in India’, Mr Guha elaborate presentation on Indian underlined the need to develop Cyber Command – Doctrine,

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Definition, Organization and represented the panel – Mr Vakul Structure, Mr Sundeep Oberoi, Sharma, a practicing Supreme Head Enterprise Security and Cdr Court lawyer, Dr Kamlesh Bajaj, (Retd) Mukesh Saini, former Head founding Director of CERT-In, and of National Information Security Mr Loknath Behra, a cyber- Cell, respectively touched upon forensic expert and founding Training and Development of member of India’s premier Cyber Warriors and R&D for National Investigation Agency Cyber Weapons, and Counter (NIA). Intelligence and Protection from Cyber Espionage. The discussions While the conference succeeded in widely covered the role of state bringing out a number of useful and non-state actors at both ends recommendations which could be of the spectrum, as also the public- incorporated in the action plan, it private partnership in developing also reinforced the view that India robust cyber warfare capabilities has already lost enough time and for India. The approaches by opportunity in building a credible different countries towards cyber deterrence against emergent cyber warfare were examined, and policy threats. It is therefore imperative recommendations included inter that the country needs to move alia new structures, better with even greater speed and structural coordination and urgency to recover lost grounds sprucing up legislation and time- and catch up with the developed bound execution of policies. world. The aim should be to converge, harmonize and The fifth and final session seamlessly align all stakeholders discussed the role and scope of towards an action plan, spelt out enablers such as legal and with predictable milestones so regulatory framework, internet that the national leadership can governance and international make commitments and bring in cooperation, incentives and responsibility and accountability sustainability, eco system, cyber metrics so as to secure India’s forensics, law enforcement, and cyber space. cyber leadership. With Air Marshal (Retd) Kishan Nowhar, former Chief of Air Staff in the chair, three other specialists Back to Contents

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 83

EVENTS RTD on China-India Ties Post Xi Visit

A six-member delegation from casting a long shadow over China, led by former Ambassador President Xi’s visit, the interacting Lu Fengding, visited VIF on 25 sides had different assessments of Sep, 2014 for an interaction which the outcome of the visit. From the sought to assess the outcome of Chinese perspective, President Chinese President Mr Xi Jinping’s Xi’s visit to India, a closely recent visit to India. Other watched event in China, was a members of the delegation great success, while the VIF included, Ambassador Zhou Gang, faculty described the visit as two experts on South Asian moderately successful, conceding affairs, Mr. Ye Hailin and Mr. though agreements reached on Gong Yingchun and two officials industrial parks, nuclear and from China Public Diplomacy space cooperation and cultural Association. The VIF faculty, a exchanges as important highlights strong battery of retired senior of the visit. From the Indian officials from India’s civil, military perspective, the visit of President and diplomatic arena, including Xi Jinping, falling short of Adm (Retd) KK Nayyar, Shri Vijai expectations, would go down as Kapoor, Shri CD Sahay and Lt one of the missed opportunities in Gen (Retd) Ravi Sawhney, among bilateral ties. others, engaged the Chinese delegation in a frank and candid Kick-starting the discussion, Lt exchange of views on the outcome Gen Sawhney remarked that the of the visit and related euphoria generated during Xi’s developments. visit waned subsequently due to nagging tension on the border. It Discussants on either side broadly was also pointed out to the visiting agreed that while China and India delegates that euphoria over $100 share common interests, there are billion investment in India serious differences of perception originated from a remark made by between the two countries on a Chinese Consulate-General in number of bilateral issues, Mumbai. The VIF faculty including the most pertinent pointedly informed their Chinese border problem. With the border counterparts that border remains standoff between the two countries central to Sino-Indian

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 84 relationship. Unless and until the In response to a suggestion made prickly boundary issue is resolved by the Chinese delegation that amicably between the two nations, media in India should not hype the no substantial progress can be border tension, the VIF faculty achieved on any other bilateral pointed out that the Indian media front. The visitors however said is vibrant because it operates in a that deepening economic democratic framework. engagements would gradually Ambassador Lu, however, asserted reduce the border tension, a point that China and India have had 17 hotly contested by the Indians. rounds of border talks so far which With perceptional differences over is illustrative of China’s keen what constitutes the Sino-Indian desire to resolve the border border remaining, the border disputes. He advised India to have management itself leaves much to patience in settling the border be desired. It came out during the issue. Both sides, however, agreed discussion that leaving the that more exchanges at people to relatively tense border to junior people level would lead to better level military brass to handle is appreciation of each other’s fraught with risks. Misadventure perception leading to gradual or miscalculation on the part of reduction in mistrust between the any junior level officer could flare two countries. With repeated up the situation, resulting in border intrusion by the Chinese unintended consequences for both troops contributing to a major the nations. The Chinese, on the chunk of the interaction, the two other hand, sanguinely felt there sides also, inter alia, discussed is no immediate cause for alarm as Afghanistan’s stabilization process not a single bullet has been fired in the post-withdrawal phase, by either side on the border for the China-Pakistan cooperation and last thirty years. China’s proposed Maritime Silk Route. The Indian side was intrigued as to why high level visits by the leaders of two countries are often co-terminus with border tension. Back to Contents

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 85

EVENTS Vimarsha – Bahudha in the Post 9/11 World

Vimarsha, VIF’s monthly series of references from history to bring talks on contemporary issues by home the point that Bahudha in eminent persons, was held on 30th India has existed through the Oct 2014, with Shri Balmiki ages, part of the reason the Indian Prasad Singh, former Governor of civilisation has survived while Sikkim, talking about ‘Bahudha in many other civilisations across the the post 9/11 world’. In his globe have perished. introductory remarks, General NC Views expressed by the Vij, Director VIF, explained that distinguished speaker were Bahudha (a Hindi acronym for significantly different from those pluralism or diversity) epitomizing enunciated by Samuel Huntington Indian culture and civilisation, almost two decades ago in his provides the right panacea to a world-famous essay on ‘Clash of world torn apart by religious Civilizations’. The concept of bigotry and terrorism. He Bahudha encapsulating an eternal highlighted that India’s unity reality or continuum, a dialogue of truly lies in its diversity. harmony, and peaceful living, is Adding a new dimension to the central not only to the global fight ongoing debate on how to deal against terrorism but also to with ideology-driven terrorism, creating a harmonious world amid Shri BP Singh’s talk underlined ethnic pluralism and religious that quintessential harmony fanaticism. Highlighting the among civilisations can be importance of facilitating achieved only through cross exchange of views and promoting cultural exchanges and inter- understanding of common good, religious dialogues. It is important Shri BP Singh underscored the to accommodate other’s point of need for imaginative statecraft views for peaceful co-existence. from world leaders to deal with Shri BP Singh cited numerous the growing scourge of

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 86 international terrorism. Shri summing up by Shri Dhirendra Dhirendra Singh, former Home Singh was followed by an Secretary, who presided over the interactive session, with several evening session, however said that questions raised by the audience, the concept of Bahudha needs to adding more value to the debate. be built into mass thinking to make the right impact. The Back to Contents

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 87

EVENTS Talk by UK’s Secretary of State for Defence, Rt. Hon. Michael Fallon MP

The United Kingdom’s Secretary between the two countries, of State for Defence, Rt. Hon. especially in the military arena, Michael Fallon MP delivered a continues even today, evidenced by perceptive talk at the VIF, on ‘the the growing number of United UK and India – together in an Nation’s led military peacekeeping uncertain world’, during his one- operations across the globe, as also day visit to India on 30 Oct 2014 the combined studies undertaken which was essentially directed by the militaries of the two towards commemorating India’s countries. He also supported military contributions to the India’s bid for permanent British war efforts in World War I membership of the Security (1914-18). Paying glowing tributes Council, especially in light of to the Indian soldiers who made India’s significant contributions supreme sacrifices in the World for various UN peacekeeping War I, the British Defence missions, over eight thousand Secretary said the UK would soldiers, the highest by any remain ever indebted to them for country in the world. upholding values that were common to both Great Britain and While lauding India’s India. General NC Vij, former contributions in rebuilding Chief of the Indian Army and Afghanistan, the British Secretary present Director of the Foundation underlined the need for expanded had said earlier in his welcome cooperation between the UK and address that high number of India, especially keeping in view gallantry awards won by the the broad spectrum of emerging Indian soldiers during the Great threats - terrorism, sea piracy, War stood testimony to their pandemics, proliferation in heroism, while the British Defence weapons of mass destruction, Secretary said their contributions challenges in cyber and outer were all the more remarkable space, among others. The being completely voluntary. Secretary of Defence, UK however assured the audience of his Hon. Michael Fallon however said country’s enduring commitment the shared historic tapestry towards Afghanistan. In a bid to

VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 88 secure India’s cooperation in Ukrainian crisis. Among other stabilizing the Middle East, highlights of Mr. Fallon’s talk especially Syria and Iraq, Mr. included the rise of Asia and the Fallon said it is in India’s own shift in power balance away from interest to tackle the ISIS (the Europe, and the scope for Islamic State of Iraq and Syria). expanded defence cooperation Working together is not an between the UK. A large audience, opportunity but a necessity, the comprising defence and diplomatic distinguished speaker said. fraternity, among others, attended the event. Hon. Michael Fallon Mr. Fallon also said he favoured also took questions from the rule-based international system audience. and the right of self-determination of the citizens, an obvious reference to maritime disputes in the South China Sea and the Back to Contents

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