September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 2
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Afghanistan Post 2014: The Pashtun Factor Wagah Attack: Reviving Terrorism India’s Act East Policy US Rebalance to Asia: An Assessment and many more …. Published By : Vivekananda International Foundation 3, San Martin Marg, Chanakyapuri, New Delhi – 110021, [email protected], www.vifindia.org Contents Imperatives of Defence Modernisation and EDITOR’S NOTE 3 - Indigenisation 59 CENTRE STAGE - Vice Admiral (Retd) Raman Puri Afghanistan Post-2014: the Pashtun Factor ECONOMY 4 - Prabhat P. Shukla A Perspective on India’s Approach to the G20 Summit 2014 NATION 62 - Brig (Retd) Vinod Anand & Sobha Menon Swachh Bharat Is Not Mardi Gras 103 14 - Dr M N Buch NEIGHBOURHOOD DEBATE Wagah attack: New Groups Reviving 107 Terrorist Activities in Pakistan 69 Foreign Archaeological Collaborations and India’s Security Concerns 21 - Gaurav Dixit - Dr Dilip K Chakrabarti EVENTS DIPLOMACY Vimarsha on Teacher’s Day 74 India’s ‘Act East’ Policy: A Perspective 25 Book launch: “Decoding India’s Defence - Brig (Retd) Vinod Anand & Dr. Rahul Mishra procurement: An Analysis of Defence 76 Procurement Procedure 2013” US Rebalance to Asia – An Assessment 33 79 - Dr. Harinder Sekhon Round Table on PM Modi’s US Visit Visit of Vietnamese Prime Minister to India Round Table on Cyber Security 80 and the Evolving Intensification of Strategic RTD on China-India Ties Post Xi Visit 84 Partnership 41 Vimarsha – Bahudha in the Post 9/11 - Maj Gen (Retd) P K Chakravorty 86 World DEFENCE Talk by UK’s Secretary of State for Defence, India-China Boundary: Border Line, Claim Rt. Hon. Michael Fallon MP 88 Line and the Line of Actual Control 46 - Lt. Gen (Retd) Gautam Banerjee VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 2 Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in the articles published in the e-journal are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Vivekananda International Foundation Editor’s Note With repeated ceasefire violations by Pakistan, increased incursions along the India-China border and the urgent need to enhance India’s military capabilities in consonance with its growing stature as a global power, the nation has been looking forward to the appointment of a competent and fully devoted Defence Minister to take up the challenges. In his latest cabinet expansion cum reshuffle, Prime Minister Narendra Modi appropriately responded to this sentiment and assigned this onerous task to Manohar Parrikar, a highly qualified technocrat with impeccable integrity and administrative experience as the Chief Minister of Goa. Parrikar is not only acclaimed for his honesty but also his ability to take bold and fast decisions on critical issues. In his first interaction with the media back in his home state, Parrikar, equally reputed for his plain speaking, aptly observed that most of the defence deals executed during the previous regime had got "stuck" due to lobbying, vested interest and kickbacks involved. He also underlined the need to remove procedural bottlenecks to ensure that the procurement process is not affected. With a full-fledged Defence Minister at the helm of affairs, one sincerely hopes that issues such as procurement and indigenization, critical to further enhancing the capability of our armed forces as they face manifold challenges, would be taken up on a priority basis. In this issue, Ambassador Prabhat Shukla looks at the Pashtun Factor in the Afghanistan Post-2014 scenario while eminent civil servant M N Buch critically analyses the Swachh Bharat campaign and suggests concrete measures to make it more effective. Dr Dilip K Chakrabarti cautions us on the ever growing foreign archaeological collaborations. There are equally interesting and informative articles on a host of critical issues confronting the nation. We hope you enjoy this edition. K G Suresh Back to Contents VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 3 CENTRE STAGE Afghanistan Post-2014: the Pashtun Factor - Prabhat P. Shukla* here is an effort among Afghanistan has kept out of Indo- some western commentaries Pakistan affairs. T – taken up and amplified by the Pakistanis - to try and project Two, the fight is between the situation in Afghanistan as a Afghanistan and Pakistan, and proxy war between India and has its own logic, going back to the Pakistan. The drumbeat of this dispute over the Pashtun issue, thesis grows as the draw-down of with Baluchistan also steadily in western forces from Afghanistan focus. It has acquired an draws near. Such a view sounds additional facet in recent years, strange to Indian ears, for we were since Afghanistan has no interest labouring under the belief this last in becoming any other country’s decade that it was a straight, “strategic depth” – indeed, deeply though covert, fight between the resents the idea, and rejects the US and Pakistan. Pakistani military push behind the concept. And that is how, moreover, people like Negroponte and Mullen Three, Afghanistan has become a projected it too – and you would battleground indeed, between expect them to know. However, it Pakistan [aided occasionally by is important to understand the outside powers] on the one hand, reality of what is happening in and the USSR, the US, and Afghanistan, and for that, the Afghan nationalism by turns. narrative must begin some And four, and most important, decades back. there is a coded message behind To anticipate the conclusions of this analysis. The message is that this essay: one, the fight is not Pakistan is going to continue to between India and Pakistan. Ever meddle in Afghan affairs, and seek since 1947, India has kept out of once more to inject the Taliban, in Afghan-Pakistan affairs, and their newest iteration, into Afghanistan, and no one should * Prabhat P. Shukla Distinguished Fellow, VIF VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 4 oppose this. India is simply British authorities from the 1920’s shorthand for the fact that all the onwards. By 1944, when it was neighbours of Afghanistan – Iran, clear that the British were to the Central Asians, and countries withdraw from India, the Kabul like India and Russia – are authorities asked the British concerned at the ceaseless Government in London to allow sponsorship of terror and extreme the Pashtuns in British India to groups by Pakistan. If they oppose choose to accede to Afghanistan or Pakistan, that becomes a proxy opt for independence as well; war. instead, they were only given the choice to accede to India or The Afghans themselves want Pakistan. The number of none of this Pakistani registered voters was a fraction of interference, but the total that is also The number of registered population, and voters was a fraction of the conveniently even among them, total population, and even skipped over. The the support for truth is, if Pakistan among them, the support for accession to Pakistan was accession to does not promote barely above 50 percent. The Pakistan was the extremist hill tribes, who are in the barely above 50 Islamic groups, centre of the fighting today, percent. The hill were not allowed to vote there will be no tribes, who are in because they were not push-back from the the centre of the Afghans or considered part of the administered territories. fighting today, anybody else; it is were not allowed to entirely vote because they emblematic that in all this lofty were not considered part of the talk about avoiding a proxy war, administered territories. the Pakistanis refrain from mentioning anything about their Pakistan showed its militant solemn, repeated – and repeatedly colours within a few months of its broken – promises of non- independence – it sent “raiders” in interference. September 1947 to the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir The history of the face-off is well- [violating the stand-still known: Afghanistan never agreement it had signed earlier accepted the Durand Line which with the state] from the Pashtun divided Pashtun from Pashtun, areas. Already, as early as 1947, and this was made clear to the VIVEK : Issues and Options September - October 2014 Issue: III No: V 5 Pakistan was seeking to portray had taken a high-profile position this operation as an Islamic on the Pashtun question. The call campaign, a jihad. Afghanistan to jihad was given practical shape was opposed to the use of the by a Pakistani, Naseerullah Pashtun tribes for this purpose, Babar, himself a Pashtun, who and the Afghan ulema responded was then serving as the Inspector- with a fatwa denying that there General of the Frontier Corps. It was any need for a jihad against was he who advised Zulfikar Ali the Indians and denying any Bhutto that the solution to the religious sanction for the Pashtun problem lay in campaign. This was done in the overwhelming Afghan irredentism context of preventing Pakistan by using the Islamic card. He from exercising influence over the sprang some of the important mountain tribes in the North-West Islamic leaders from Kabul, whose Frontier Province, which was not names read like a who’s who of the Pakistani territory in their eyes. anti-Soviet war of the 1980’s: Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, The subsequent two decades saw Burhanuddin Rabbani, Ahmed frequent tensions over the Shah Massoud, Noor Mohammed Pashtun question between the two Mohammedi, and others. At this countries, and even saw a limited stage, the Islamists were not all skirmish in 1963. As a result of Pashtuns – the heavy reliance this last, King Zahir Shah particularly on Ghilzai Pashtuns dismissed his Prime Minister and was to come later, under Gen Zia- cousin, Mohammed Daoud Khan. ul-Haq. But the idea of using In turn, Daoud overthrew the Islam as a weapon to blunt the King a decade later in 1973, and Pashtun nationalist issue both thus began a new era in South internally and vis-à-vis Asian history – not only because it Afghanistan was born at this time.