Unternehmenskommunikation Auf Den EK- Und FK-Märkten
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Unternehmenskommunikation auf den EK- und FK-Märkten Dr. Adam Strzyz Ruhr-Universität Bochum, 21 January 2020 Agenda Uniper’s Role in the Energy World Our Equity Story Profit Warnings, Guidance & Communication – What is „good“ IR-work? Importance of Rating – The case of Fortum & Uniper 2 Uniper at a Glance Where we operate Employees: 11,000 European Generation Gas-fired Coal-fired Hydroelectric Nuclear (SWE) ~10 GW ~7 GW ~4 GW ~1 GW Power generation, Storage, Services - Europe Global Power generation - International Commodity Trading, Energy Sales Commodities Gas Supply Gas Storage Regasification Energy sales ~400 TWH LTC ~80 TWH ~50 TWH p.a. ~1.000 customers €1.5bn 100 years 34 GW International 40+ countries around the world EBITDA Experience Generation Power Gas-fired Coal-fired Among largest generators in Europe ~9 GW ~2 GW Datteln IV #2 in coal 60mt CO2 commissioning last new coal- In terms of operated Emitted in 2018; fired power plant in Germany capacity in Germany comparable to Finland Power-2-Gas #1 in Hydro ~40% EBIT first company to operate a “green In terms of operated From carbon free power hydrogen” plant on industrial scale capacity in Germany generation in 2018 3 Current Projects – Impressions from the Energy Sector Nord Stream 2 pipeline project LNG terminal Wilhelmshaven Windgas Falkenhagen Projec Capacity: 55bcm Capacity: 10bcm 2 MWel / 360 m3/h H2 Alkaline electrolysis Length: 2 X 1225km First Regas Terminal Invest up to 9.5 bn€ in Germany Operating since 2013 Uniper financing COD End 2022 H2 injection into gas partner @10% transportation pipeline COD Mid 2020 Expanded into 1MW catalytic methanation plant (“synthetic methane”) “Germany is making a tremendous mistake „Das ist ein wichtiger, notwendiger by relying so heavily on the pipeline” Übergangsschritt im Hinblick auf eine (Donald Trump) nachhaltige Wasserstoffwirtschaft, die aber erst mittel- und langfristig erreichbar ist.“ "Es ist richtig und wichtig, dass Europa in (Peter Altmeier) „Ich arbeite dafür, dass Deutschland bei gewisser Weise die Hoheit über seine „…für einen Flüssiggasterminal ist Wasserstofftechnologien die Nummer 1 in Gasversorgung und die Diversität seiner Wilhelmshaven eindeutig der beste der Welt wird“ (Peter Altmeier) Gasversorgung behält“ (Angela Merkel) Standort.“ (Sigmar Gabriel) 4 Overview of German Lignite Exit Plan (16.01.2020) Uniper‘s Schkopau plant in Eastern Germany allowed to run up until 31.12.2034 Uniper’s hard Coal Plant Datteln IV is allowed to go into operations German Government spends ~50bn€ (40bn€ structural aid, 4.8bn€ for employees, 2.6bn€ for RWE, 1.8bn€ for LEAG) 5 Emission Targets are a Key Priority for the Sector Carbon neutrality Absolute or relative Carbon intensity carbon reduction Achieve CO2 neutrality for the global Reduce absolute scope 1 and 2 GHG Carbon intensity target of 500g of CO2/KWh generation portfolio by 2040 (path: - emissions by 38% by 2030 from a 2017 (on average) though 2020 based on direct 33% by 2020 and -70% by 2030 compared base year and reduce absolute scope 3 CO2 emissions from fully consolidated, to 2012 levels) GHG emissions from use of sold stationary fossil-fueled power plants and products by 20% by 2030 from a 2017 power-and-heat plants and these plants’ Be carbon-neutral until 2050 by having base year power and heat output carbon-neutral buildings until 2030, an electrified fleet until 2030, reduce the Carbon intensity target of <200g CO2/kWh carbon emissions of own business Help their customers to reduce emissions from total energy production on a 5-year operations by 30% vs. 2016 and reduce by 25%, by direct (3%) and indirect average the carbon emissions of customers per action (baseline: 2015) kWh by 50% vs. 2016 Reduce scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions by Reduce absolute scope 1,2 and 3 GHG Reduce scope 1 GHG emissions by 70% 75% per TWh by 2030 from a 2015 base emissions by 20% by 2030 from a 2017 per kWh by 2030 from a 2017 base year, year and reduce scope 3 GHG emissions by base year limiting them to 125g/kWheq, and achieve 40% by 2030 from a 2015 base year full decarbonization by 2050; Reduce absolute scope 3 emissions by 40% by Reduce Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions by 2030 from a 2015 base year 98% per kWh by 2025 from a 2006 base Reduce GHG emissions by 90% by 2021 year and reduce absolute scope 3 GHG by from a 2011 base-year (Scope 1, Scope 2, 50% by 2032 from a 2018 base year and scope 3 emissions from fuel-and- Reduce Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions by energy related activities and business air 40% per MWh transported by 2030 from a travel); long term goal to be carbon neutral 2015 base year by 2050 6 Become a Uniper Trainee! Take part in our Trainee Program - Explore our company and make the next step in your career! As a Graduate in the Trainee Program, you have the opportunity to get to know different divisions and to gain valuable experience. The semi-structured program with a combination of predefined and flexible stations also includes the opportunity to gain international work experience in various business units. 7 Structure of the Uniper Trainee Program The number and length of placements can be aligned according to individual interests and in consultation with the mentor. 8 Agenda Uniper’s Role in the Energy World Our Equity Story Profit Warnings, Guidance & Communication – What is „good“ IR-work? Importance of Rating – The case of Fortum & Uniper 9 Spin-offs Provide a Unique Opportunity Parent firm distributes shares of the spin-off subsidiary to all existing parent company shareholders Shareholders Shareholders Parent Company Value Parent Spin-off creation Company (Subsidiary B) Subsidiary A Subsidiary A Subsidiary B 10 Capital market positioning milestones Dec. 2014 : E.ON decides to split Jan. 2016: Uniper operationally independent Apr. 2016: Kick-off financing process Apr. 2016: First Capital Market Day May 2016: S&P publishes BBB- rating Jun. 2016: E.ON AGM formally to spin-off Uniper Roadshow Institutional 150 meetings held 250+ investors met Jul. 2016: Syndication completed with 15 banks Key conferences Days on the road attended meeting investors 10+ 40+ Sep. 2016 : Stock exchange listing 11 “We Will See a Bloodbath Today” – n-tv in the morning of listing Initial set-up • Separation of companies on Jan 1, 2016 • General outlook on business given • Government decision on nuclear liabilities 16H1: Headwinds from the markets • Commodity market downturn in 16Q1 • Negative outlook for utilities in general • Write-downs after impairment test in Power Prices 16Q2 Gas Prices (NCG) €/MWh 55 €/MWh Before listing day 30 • Wide range of forecast market 45 capitalization ranging from €2bn to €5bn+ 25 • Featuring considerable market 35 uncertainty 20 25 NordPNordic Pow 2016 DEGermany Pow 2016 15 15 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 12 Uniper’s Answer for the Capital Markets Key concerns Key messages Laying the foundation Capital Markets Day Achievability of dividends Reduction of capex First disclosure: H1’16 Sustainability of cash flow Divestments Credit rating implications Cost cutting Emphasis on non-wholesale earnings Apr – Sep 2016 Roadshows Uniper Listing 12/9 Building credibility, 9M’2016 results Cost cuts quantified increasing visibility YR transaction Key theme: announced Base dividend + Optionality FY 2016 results 2016 targets Sep 2016 – Mar 2017 delivered Deep Dive Base margin Driving valuation Gas midstream + optionality concept: increased transparency 6M’2017 results Upgrade of 2017 targets Key theme: Deep Dive Generation Upsides from Growing dividend + Optionality decarbonisation Since Q2 2017 Strategic and financial update Dividend growth 25% CAGR until 2020 13 Uniper’s Attractive Dividend Policy Uniper’s dividend policy Dividend growth €m Operating Cash Flow 25% CAGR 329 +/ Working capital effects 271 - 201 489 390 313 - FFO Adjustments 200 250 Aspiration Adjusted Funds from Operations FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019E FY2020E - Maintenance investments Key messages A purely cash flow based dividend story Free Cash from Operations Above sector average payout ratio with at least 75% of FCfO to be cashed (FCfO) out Starting with a base dividend in FY2016 to set the benchmark Ambitious dividend growth path of CAGR 25% between 2016 and 2020 75% - 100% Favorable free cash flow growth and outpacing 25% growth path for Dividend payout on FCfO financial year 2017 and 2018 14 Uniper Way – a Different Way to Shape the Culture Keep & Foster Stop Start ! Start ! Leadership Valuing our people Being inconsequential Taking responsibility Grow and empower people and their capabilities Teamwork Working Thinking in Reducing complexity Become one team together silos and simplify proceedings Your Individual Contribution Staying in your Striving for excellence Being entrepreneurial comfort zone Act as if it were your own company 15 Uniper’s Share Price History Laying the foundation Building credibility Driving valuation 16 Is Uniper‘s Current Share Price Fair? EV / EBITDA 2020: Uniper vs. Peers 2 P / E 2020 April’19 today “expensive” “expensive” 13,5 20,0 10,8 17,1 8,3 7,6 8,5 14,0 15,6 14,7 15,6 5,6 “cheap” “cheap” Dividend yield 2020 (in %) Sum of the parts (analysts estimates) 2 7.7x 7.8x 8.5x 7.1x “cheap” 4.5x 10.4 2,2 2.6 12,9 2,5 9,6 8,4 -1.4 5,1 5,0 5,6 26.3 3,5 4,3 - 3,2 €bn - Value Power Global Other/ “expensive” Enterprise Price Price (€) Generation International EquityValue Target Target Share Commodities Consolidation 1. Using Bloomberg quotes; “Generators” group includes RWE, Fortum, Verbund, CEZ, Drax; “Semi-regulated” group includes E.ON, EDF, Enel, Engie, Endesa, Iberdrola, Innogy, EDP, Centrica; “Regulated” group inlcudes Enagas, Red Electrica, Seven Trent, Pennon, National Grid, REN 2.