Sustaining Value in Challenging Times July 2016
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Sustaining value in challenging times July 2016 Capital Markets Story Agenda 1. Investment rationale 2. Financial highlights & commitment to shareholders 3. Appendix 3.1 European Generation 3.2 Global Commodities 3.3 International Power 3.4 Top-Management incentives & Uniper Supervisory Board 2 What we as Uniper stand for Portfolio Performance Potential 3 Focused portfolio with attractive assets Portfolio Performance across Europe/Russia Potential • One of the largest European generators with 31 GW of own, mostly dispatchable generation capacity European • Diversified base across technologies and main NWE Generation markets • Strong capabilities in construction, operations and maintenance • A leading physical energy trader with global footprint • Large gas midstream business in Europe with more than Global 400 TWh gas LTC portfolio, own storage capacity of Commodities 8.8 bcm and pipeline shareholdings • Participation in giant Russian gas field • Optimisation of European Generation portfolio • Number 3 privately-owned Russian generation company International • ~30% capacity increase since 2010 Power • 11 GW of generation assets 4 Diversified earning sources Portfolio Performance Potential 59% Adj. 18% EBITDA 1 23% European Global International Generation Commodities Power • Hydro fleet with low variable costs • Gas midstream driven by • Favourable regulatory framework a significant earnings contributor integrated steering and providing largely predictable • Fossil fleet benefits from optimisation of assets and positions earnings from Russian capacity significant share of non-wholesale along the midstream value chain markets earnings • Stability of business in local • Stable infrastructure elements from currency terms • Flexibility of CCGTs not yet gas pipeline participations significantly contributing to • Diversified Russian earnings from earnings power • Plateau gas production at limited long-term capacity contracts costs (new), capacity auctions (old) and energy-only market 1. Split based on Adjusted EBITDA 2015; admin / consolidation not reflected 5 Commitment to cost excellence and cash Portfolio flow optimization Performance Potential Action plan Cost Cash Portfolio Targeted total cost reductions Group investments (€bn) Disposal volume >€2bn 2015 2018 2015 2018 By 2018 Radical reduction of direct and Optimisation of working capital At least €2bn of potential indirect costs across the Group disposal proceeds identified Ambition to reduce investments Offset loss of earnings due to to maintenance level Used for deleveraging and commodity price collapse1 funding of remaining growth projects 1. Referring to annualised foregone earnings from price declines of €8 - €10/MWh in continental Europe and the Nordics since 26/04/2015 and a total outright volume of 25-27TWh in an unhedged scenario 6 Proven track record of delivering Portfolio improvement measures Performance Potential Personnel costs Investments Divestments €2.2bn €14.3bn1 €1.4bn €1.3bn €1.1bn 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013-15 Examples Reduction of overhead costs under E.ON 2.0 driven by change of organisational set-up to a more functional organisation Successful merger and highly efficient operational integration of Ruhrgas and E.ON Energy Trading (2013) helped realise significant synergies Retirement of uneconomic capacity of 8.8 GW over the last four years Non-fuel cost growth below inflation over last 5 years in Russia 1. Divestment proceeds realised by E.ON in 2013-15 7 Gearing to commodity price recovery… Portfolio Performance Potential Outright position Value proposition Baseload power price (€/MWh) >80% >80% >30% Short-term outright power 45 exposure hedged at prices above >80% >80% >20% forward 35 Generation portfolio geared to possible price recovery in mid- 25 term 15 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Commodity price upside potential Germany1 Achieved price (Germany) Hedge ratio Germany in mid-term also for YR, coal and LNG Sweden1 Achieved price (Sweden) Hedge ratio Sweden Source: Bloomberg price data as of 12/15 and 04/16, IHS as of 01/16 1. Forward curve 2016-2018: Yearly forward prices as of 28/12/15 for 2016 delivery and 20/04/16 for 2017 / 2018 delivery (EEX power futures data for Germany / Nord Pool power futures data for Sweden); Projection range 2019-2020: Based on IHS as of 01/16 8 ...as well as market transformation Portfolio Performance Potential Gas plant portfolio Storage portfolio Value proposition Clean spark spreads (€/MWh)1 Summer-winter spreads (€/MWh)2 15 CCGTs and gas storages 5,8 addressing system flexibility needs 5 3,8 2,3 2,5 (5) 1,5 1,6 (15) Upside from upcoming and 12 13 14 15 16E 17E 10 11 12 13 14 15 16E 17E potential capacity markets UK GER 11.7 GW gas-fired 8.8 bcm gas storage capacity Source: IHS as of 01/16 Source: IHS as of 11/15, forward as of 01/16 Benefits from possible industry consolidation Security of supply not yet adequately compensated 1. Based on nominal peak load power prices; Spark spread assumptions: Efficiency 54.53% LHV/heat rate 6,204 MMBtu per kWh 2. S/W-Spreads at Netherlands TTF (€/MWh, nominal); in projection period IHS lower bound for 2016E and upper bound for 2017E and accordingly forward upper bound in 2016E and lower bound for 2017E 9 Well positioned for long-term opportunities Portfolio Performance in a transforming energy world Potential Global industry drivers Decarbonisation Globalisation of resources Affordability Rising system instability Increased imbalance of Conventional generation through renewables build out supply and demand global growth Redispatch measures Germany (hrs)1 Global gas flows Production Production European Union Rest of World (TWh) (TWh)2 8.453 20402 13 15 53 24 7919 1.588 RES 3 Gas / Coal RES 3 Gas / Coal 4 2013 2030E 2010 2014 Source: Bundesnetzagentur, Energy Monitoring Report Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 20155 Providing security of supply Connecting global markets Global growth around markets 1. Includes counter-trade measures 2. Rest of World = World excl. European Union 3. Renewable energy sources (RES) include hydro, bioenergy, wind, geothermal, solar PV, concentrated solar power and marine (tide and wave) 4. Based on the Current Policies Scenario 5. Based on IEA data from the World Energy Outlook 2015 © OECD/IEA 2015, www/iea.org/statistics. Licence: www.iea.org/t&c; as modified by Uniper SE 10 Sustaining value in challenging times Attractive assets across Europe/Russia Portfolio and diversified earning sources Commitment and track record of cost Performance excellence and cash flow optimization Gearing to commodity price recovery and Potential market transformation 11 Agenda 1. Investment rationale 2. Financial highlights & commitment to shareholders 3. Appendix 3.1 European Generation 3.2 Global Commodities 3.3 International Power 3.4 Top-Management incentives & Uniper Supervisory Board 12 Strong underlying earnings platform despite difficult market environment Group adj. EBITDA development (€bn) Adj. EBITDA contribution by segment 2015 (€bn) 2.0 1.7 0.3 0.1 1.7 0.4 0,2 (0.2)1 0,2 0,3 2014 2015 1.1 Source: Combined Financial Statements 0,6 Group adj. EBIT development (€bn) 0.8 0.8 0.5 European Global International Admin/ Total Generation Commodities Power Consolidation 2014 2015 Adj. EBIT D&A Adj. EBITDA Source: Combined Financial Statements Source: Combined Financial Statements 1. Adj. EBITDA of €(0.2bn) and adj. EBIT of €(0.2bn) 13 Financials negatively impacted by the commodity environment across segments European Generation Global Commodities International Power Adj. EBIT(DA) (€bn) Adj. EBIT(DA) (€bn) Adj. EBIT(DA) (€bn) 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 Adj. EBIT D&A Adj. EBITDA Adj. EBIT D&A Adj. EBITDA Adj. EBIT D&A Adj. EBITDA Source: Combined Financial Statements Source: Combined Financial Statements Source: Combined Financial Statements Drivers: Drivers: Drivers: ↑ Gas optimisation and wholesale ↑ New-build ↑ Cost measures (incl. plant closures) ↓ Gas price (esp. Yuzhno Russkoye) ↓ RUB FX rate ↓ Lower earnings in German fossil ↓ Outage of Surgutskaya fleet partly compensated by ↓ Penalties for Berezovskaya commissioning of Maasvlakte commissioning delay ↓ Lower availability of Swedish nuclear ↓ Baseload electricity price 14 Strong cash generation based on attractive cash conversion OCFbIT1 and cash conversion (€bn) OCFbIT1 by segment and cash conversion 2015 (€bn) % Cash conversion 2 % Cash conversion 2 89% 118% 118% 0,4 2,0 2.0 0,8 (0.3) 1,7 1.1 2014 2015 European Global International Admin/ Total Generation Commodities Power Consolidation Source: Combined Financial Statements Source: Combined Financial Statements 1. Group operating cash flow before interest and taxes 2. Cash conversion defined as OCFbIT / Adj. EBITDA 15 Historically investments driven by past growth initiatives Investments by segment (€bn)1 Key investments during 2014-2015 Maasvlakte – new build (29%) Ratcliffe – environmental upgrade European 1.5 Generation Nuclear Sweden – lifetime extension and safety upgrade 0.5 1.1 Provence IV – conversion to biomass 0.2 0.1 0.1 Global Primarily maintenance measures related Commodities to the storage and infrastructure business 0.9 0.8 Investments into Brazil operations 2014 2015 Average International 2 2016-18E Power New build programme Russia European Generation Global Commodities International Power Source: Combined Financial Statements 1. Admin/Consolidation not shown due to immateriality 2. Not reflecting Nord Stream II; investment target based on current planning and market conditions 16 Future investments focused on maintenance and existing growth projects Investment outlook1 Remaining growth projects Datteln IV <€0.5bn2 2018 < 10% 10 – 20% Provence IV <€0.1bn 2016 5 – 15% Maasvlakte III <€0.1bn 2016 European Generation European 3 IP Berezovskaya <€0.1bn 2016 65 – 75% Investments for special projects €0.5- Nord Stream II 2019 GC €1.0bn4 2016-18E European Generation Global Commodities At least At least until IP Berezovskaya RUB15bn5 end 2017 International Power Admin/Consolidation 1. Not reflecting Nord Stream II; investment target based on current planning and market conditions 2.