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The Case of Electricity and Natural Gas in Spain

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The Case of Electricity and Natural Gas in Spain energies Article Energy Market Prices in Times of COVID-19: The Case of Electricity and Natural Gas in Spain Luis M. Abadie Basque Centre for Climate Change—BC3, Edificio Sede No. 1, 1st Floor, Basque Country University Science Park, 48940 Leioa, Spain; [email protected]; Tel.: +34-944-014-690 Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic is having a strong impact on the economies of all countries, negatively affecting almost all sectors. This paper compares Spanish electricity and natural gas prices in the first half-year of 2020 with the prices expected for that period at the end of 2019. The half-year of 2020 selected coincides with the period of greatest impact of COVID-19 on Spanish society. Expected prices and their future probability distributions are calculated using a stochastic model with deterministic and stochastic parts; the stochastic part includes mean-reverting and jumps behaviour. The model is calibrated with 2016–2019 daily spot prices for electricity and with day-ahead prices for natural gas. The results show large monthly differences between the prices expected at the end of the year 2019 and the actual prices for the half-year; in May 2020, wholesale electricity prices are found to be EUR 31.60/MWh lower than expected, i.e., 60% lower. In the case of natural gas, the prices in the same month are EUR 8.96/MWh lower than expected, i.e., 62% lower. The spark spread (SS) is positive but lower than expected and also lower than in the same months of the previous year. Keywords: electricity prices; natural gas prices; COVID-19; stochastic models; jumps; spark spread Citation: Abadie, L.M. Energy 1. Introduction Market Prices in Times of COVID-19: The Case of Electricity and Natural The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a strong economic impact in all countries. This Gas in Spain. Energies 2021, 14, 1632. in turn has strongly affected energy demand and consequently prices. Its effects have been https://doi.org/10.3390/en14061632 felt in several economic sectors, including construction and industry. COVID-19 is having a great impact on energy systems around the world, decreasing investments and threatening Academic Editor: Ricardo J. Bessa to slow the expansion of key clean energy technologies [1]. According to [2], in the first months of 2020, the world’s natural gas markets have Received: 10 February 2021 experienced the largest demand negative shock ever recorded in their recent history because Accepted: 11 March 2021 of the COVID-19 pandemic and because of mild winter temperatures in the northern Published: 15 March 2021 hemisphere early in the year. The timeline of COVID-19 is the following [3]: On 31 December 2019, China reported Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral a cluster of cases of pneumonia where a novel coronavirus was eventually identified. After, with regard to jurisdictional claims in on 12 January 2020, China publicly shared the genetic sequence of COVID-19. Addition- published maps and institutional affil- ally, on 11 March 2020, the WHO determined that COVID-19 could be characterized as iations. a pandemic. The following dates are significant for Spain: • 13 March 2020: introduction of the “state of alarm”. • 30 March 2020: tightening of the state of alarm with a ban on all non-essential activities. Copyright: © 2021 by the author. • 13 April: return to work for construction and some industrial workers. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article Because of this chronology with the initial COVID-19 information reported on 31 distributed under the terms and December 2019, quotes from earlier dates are used to estimate the prices that would have conditions of the Creative Commons been expected in the first half of 2020 without COVID-19. Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// This study seeks to analyse the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on wholesale energy creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ markets in Spain during the first half-year of 2020, covering electricity and natural gas. It 4.0/). sets out to analyse the following points: (a) To what extent has the COVID-19 pandemic Energies 2021, 14, 1632. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14061632 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/energies Energies 2021, 14, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 18 This study seeks to analyse the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on wholesale energy Energies 2021, 14, 1632 2 of 17 markets in Spain during the first half-year of 2020, covering electricity and natural gas. It sets out to analyse the following points: (a) To what extent has the COVID-19 pandemic affected the wholesale market prices of electricity and natural gas in Spain? (b) When did the marketsaffected react by the lowering wholesale prices? market To that prices end, of real electricity and estimated and natural data gas for inthe Spain? first half (b) When did of 2020 arethe compared. markets reactProbability by lowering distributi prices?ons Tofor thatestimations end, real before and estimated COVID-19 data expan- for the first half sion are basedof 2020 on a are stochastic compared. mean-reverting Probability distributions jump diffusion for estimations model calibrated before COVID-19with daily expansion quotes fromare 2016–2019, based on a and stochastic using mean-revertingthe closing data jump for diffusion2019 as the model starting calibrated point withof the daily quotes estimate. from 2016–2019, and using the closing data for 2019 as the starting point of the estimate. As cited inAs the cited report in theon the report sectoral on the tren sectorald in electricity trend in electricity demand from demand large from consum- large consumers ers in Spainin [4], Spain electricity [4], electricity consumption consumption in April in 2020 April was 2020 23.8% was lower 23.8% than lower in April than in2019 April 2019 in in industry,industry, 23.7% lower 23.7% in lower services in services and 13.8% and lower 13.8% in lower “other in “otherconsumers”. consumers”. This is Thisequiv- is equivalent alent to an tooverall an overall drop dropof 22.8% of 22.8% in the in total the totalfor large for largeconsumers. consumers. Figure 1 showsFigure a 1sharp shows drop a sharp in electricity drop in electricityproduction production and prices and in Spain prices in in the Spain first in the first months of months2020. These of 2020. 2020 Theseprices 2020 are much prices lower are much than lower the prices than for the 2016–2019. prices for 2016–2019. Figure 1. SpanishFigure monthly 1. Spanish electricity monthly generation electricity and generation prices, andfrom prices, January from 2016 January to June 2016 2020. to June 2020. Source: Source: ownown work work based based on ESIOS on ESIOS [5]. [5]. Figure 2 alsoFigure shows2 also a sharp shows drop a sharp in natural drop ingas natural prices gasin Spain prices in in 2016–2019 Spain in 2016–2019 and in and in the first monthsthe first of months2020. These of 2020. latest These prices latest are lower prices than are lower those thanfor 2016–2019. those for 2016–2019. Figure 2. Spanish monthly natural gas prices, from January 2016 to June 2020. Source: own work based on Iberian gas market (MIBGAS) [6]. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the power plants cost calculated as described by [7], decreasing for natural gas combined cycles. In all cases, the decrease in electricity Energies 2021, 14, 1632 3 of 17 prices has caused a reduction in income. This net income drop has affected renewable energy plants, where there has been no reduction in costs. The papers below are some of those that have analysed the stochastic behaviour of electricity and natural gas prices. A two-factor jump-diffusion model with seasonality for the valuation of electricity futures contracts was proposed by [8]; this model was applicate to the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) US electricity market incorporating a jump risk premium. The seasonal systematic pattern is of crucial importance in explaining the shape of the futures/forward curve being a simple sinusoidal function adequate for this [9]. This was analysed with Nordic Power Exchange’s spot, futures and forward prices. The effectiveness of different jump specifications when modelling electricity prices was compared by [10]. They calibrate the models to the daily European Energy Exchange (EEX) market. The authors analyse the impact of the jump components on derivatives pricing. The electricity prices behaviour in deregulated markets using a general class of mod- els with seasonality, mean reversion, GARCH behaviour and time-dependent jumps is analysed in [11]. They estimate eight different nested models and find strong evidence that electricity equilibrium prices are mean reverting, with volatility clustering (GARCH) and with jumps of time-dependent intensity. A model of electricity spot prices that combines mean reversion, spikes, negative prices and stochastic volatility can be found in [12], where different mean reversion rates for “normal” and “extreme” (spike) periods are used. In this paper, a modified version of the stochastic model described in simulating elec- tricity prices with mean-reversion and jump-diffusion [13] is used. This version includes the effects of non-working days. There are some recent publications about the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the energy markets. The papers below are some of those. A positive effect of the infectious diseases EMVID index on the realized volatility of crude oil prices with highest level of statistical significance [14] has been observed; this was found using a heterogeneous autoregressive realized volatility (HAR-RV) model. The aggregated electricity demand decreased in Great Britain (GB) during March 2020 due to the mitigation measures including lockdown and work from home (WFH) because of the COVID-19 crisis [15].
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