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Scaling 36 Solutions to Halve Emissions by 2030

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Scaling 36 Solutions to Halve Emissions by 2030 SCALING 36 SOLUTIONS TO HALVE EMISSIONS BY 2030 VERSION 1.5, 2019. Lead authors Complete citation Published 19 September 2019 Johan Falk J. Falk, O. Gaffney, A. K. Bhowmik, P. Bergmark, This is a co-designed report. We have put together Future Earth, Stockholm Resilience Centre, V. Galaz, N. Gaskell, S. Henningsson, M. Höjer, a multidisciplinary team representing academia, Internet of Planet L. Jacobson, K. Jónás, T. Kåberger, D. Klingenfeld, business and NGOs – from energy specialists, data J. Lenhart, B. Loken, D. Lundén, J. Malmodin, modellers, ICT analysts and urban researchers Owen Gaffney T. Malmqvist, V. Olausson, I. Otto, A. Pearce, E. Pihl, to exponential strategists, journalists, editors, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, T. Shalit, Exponential Roadmap 1.5. Future Earth. designers and data visualisers. The lead partners Stockholm Resilience Centre Sweden. (September 2019). of this edition of the Exponential Roadmap are – Future Earth, WWF, Ericsson, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact All authors and contributors are listed on pages Research, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Sitra, 169–171. Mission 2020 and Internet of Planet. Lead partners Supporting partners LETS HALVE GLOBAL EMISSIONS BY “The next few years are probably the most important in our history.” Debra Roberts Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group II WWW.EXPONENTIALROADMAP.ORG 5 CONTENTS 06 Foreword 114 SCALING THE 10 Executive summary TRANSFORMATION 18 About this report 116 Cities 122 Climate leadership 20 MEETING THE 1.5°C 130 Policies and targets CLIMATE AMBITION 138 Open data for climate action 46 TRANSFORMING 142 Financing the transition SECTORS 150 Exponential technologies 48 Energy supply and solutions 58 Industry 68 Digital industry 159 FINAL WORDS 76 Buildings 84 Transport 160 References 94 Food consumption 169 Contributors 104 Nature-based solutions 172 Image credits 6 EXPONENTIAL ROADMAP 1.5 FOREWORD We need a vision for a world free These five forces are aligning once more. We are at the beginning of the mother of all transformations to stabilise Earth’s temperature at 1.5°C. from fossil-fuels and a pathway The Fridays For Future movement and Extinction Rebellion have exploded to achieve it. As co-chair of the onto the scene in the last twelve months and are changing how we talk about United Nations Climate Action climate. More countries are discussing climate emergency declarations, Summit’s ambition advisory group and goals to reach net zero by 2050 or earlier. Businesses are calling for stronger legislation and investors are demanding climate-risk disclosure. I welcome this report because it Now zero-carbon technologies outcompete fossil-fuels and this is killing provides just that. old tech. And finally, science is highlighting the colossal risks of inaction, and the equally huge opportunities from a fast transformation. This will deliver Our history is defined by momentous societal energy and food security, cleaner cities, less pollution, healthier diets and transformations: the industrial revolution, the economic growth. women’s vote, civil rights, the end of apartheid in South Africa and the Green Revolution. Major leaps forward are driven by “Meeting the 1.5°C Climate Ambition” is part of the second Exponential disruption from a combination of social movements, government policies, Roadmap. Together they articulate how far we have come and how far we need market confidence, new technologies and science. to go. Step by step, they chart how the world can move from incremental to exponential action – doubling the number of companies, cities and countries acting on climate, then doubling again and again. These are the exponential strategies now needed to cut emissions 50% by 2030 or earlier, then doing it again by 2040 and again by 2050. This is the carbon law pathway and you “ Progress must accelerate will be hearing a lot about it in these pages. and governments must drive Along this journey we also need to store more carbon by protecting forests and peatlands and planting more trees on a truly unprecedented scale. it. First by declaring a goal We will need to turn agriculture from a source of carbon to a giant store, but this will enhance soils and improve crop yields. And we will need to protect of net zero emissions by 2050 Earth’s remaining wildernesses – the oceans and land that safely store half of our at the latest. Then adopting carbon dioxide emissions and shelter our biodiversity. This report highlights how: a carbon law pathway to About 56% of potential emissions in 2030 could be reduced relatively easily with economically attractive solutions that can scale rapidly. This reach the goal.” jumps to 64% if we use promising technologies that are unproven at scale. WWW.EXPONENTIALROADMAP.ORG 7 The energy sector has recently reached a tipping point where wind I see all evidence that social and economic and solar outcompete fossil-fuels in most regions of the world. tipping points are aligning. We can now say The end may well be nigh for coal. Oil and gas will not be far behind. the next decade has the potential to see the Expect the unexpected. fastest economic transition in history. The 2019 Exponential Roadmap is an excellent guide for We should not assume energy demand must keep rising. Energy demand the necessary journey to net zero emissions. can be reduced a phenomenal 40% while still providing the same quality Christiana Figueres of life and services as today. What’s more, people in developing economies can access the same opportunities. Former head of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, And finally, nature-based climate solutions – planting trees and protecting founder of Mission 2020 peatlands – have the potential to become vast stores of carbon. Solutions are scaling fast. More people are demanding healthier diets with The remaining carbon budget for a 1.5°C lower carbon footprints. Major vehicle manufacturers have announced future is falling 10% each year we fail to act. plans to phase out fossil-fuels from light vehicles and investors are gaining We should be nervous. But the window of confidence in alternatives to fossil-fuels. But progress must accelerate and opportunity is still open. While this scale of governments must drive it. First by declaring a goal of net zero emissions by transformation is unprecedented, the speed 2050 at the latest. Then adopting a carbon law pathway to reach the goal. is not. We hope the 2019 Exponential Roadmap provides a useful compass. All this points to the potential for the 2020s to see the fastest economic transition in history. This is the future we all want. Johan Rockström Manuel Pulgar-Vidal Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany and co-chair of Leader of WWF’s global Future Earth climate and energy practice 8 EXPONENTIAL ROADMAP 1.5 Every day we get reminders of the urgency Understanding where we are and how far of climate action. Our experiences with we still need to go to tackle climate change, record temperatures, sea ice melts and is the foundation for achieving our common widespread wildfires give us a sense of the exponential action plan. We have the vision, changes underway. And the science provides we know what to focus on. Now we need to an increasingly clear picture of the dangers accelerate the efforts of civil society, business, ahead. This report shows there are solutions cities and people and make sure the transition for businesses and governments thanks to the is fair and brings us well-being and a sustainable combination of science and ingenuity. We have future. This is the responsibility of us all. the tools to drive the transformations needed to Mikko Kosonen tackle the climate crisis. Let’s use them. President, Sitra Amy Luers Executive Director, Future Earth All universities have a responsibility to support exponential climate work. KTH Royal Institute As a sustainability pioneer, we have been of Technology do this through leadership in both an advocate of climate action and research, in education and in cooperation with investing in research and development of other parts of society. Thus, we are dedicated climate solutions. We believe leveraging to stimulating new ways of thinking about technology, such as digitalisation and 5G, society and about how these can support will be fundamental to halve emissions every climate targets and the SDGs. decade. Ericsson have cut our own emissions Sigbritt Karlsson by 50% and are working to meet further reductions. We have demonstrated solutions President, KTH Royal Institute of Technology that help make it possible. Now other companies and policy-makers must act to scale demonstrated solutions to enable exponential reduction of carbon emissions globally. Börje Ekholm CEO, Ericsson WWW.EXPONENTIALROADMAP.ORG 9 Food and land-use account for 23% of The world is a long way off the pathway we global greenhouse gas emissions, yet these need to be on. But the roadmap shows that sectors are often overlooked when it comes we can achieve this goal. to developing mitigation strategies. Shifting Owen Gaffney unhealthy, unsustainable diets in Western industrialised countries and preventing the Exponential Roadmap co-lead author, transition to Western diets in low income Stockholm Resilience Centre and Potsdam countries is the greatest lever we have in Institute for Climate Impact Research reducing emissions from food consumption, while simultaneously reducing health-care costs and human suffering from malnutrition and diet-related diseases. In addition, agriculture has huge potential for both reducing emissions from land-use and storing carbon. Science is clear. It’s now time to act. Gunhild Stordalen Founder and executive chair, EAT Forum This roadmap uniquely focuses on three things. The immediate priorities – reaching peak emissions in 2020 and racing to cut emissions in half by 2030. How we scale the new low-carbon solutions exponentially and how we need to think in terms of systems transformation of the whole economy.
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