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Using the CO2 Budget to Meet the Paris Climate Targets

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Using the CO2 Budget to Meet the Paris Climate Targets Using the CO2 budget to meet the Paris climate targets ENVIRONMENTAL REPORT 2020 CHAPTER 2 Using the CO2 budget to meet the Paris 2 climate targets Contents 2 Using the CO2 budget to meet the Paris climate targets ................................ 5 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 6 2.2 The CO2 budget as the key metric for climate protection ............................................ 6 2.2.1 Basis for and uses of the CO2 budget ......................................................... 7 2.2.2 Factors in the calculation of the CO2 budget ............................................. 11 2.2.3 Size of the global CO2 budget ................................................................. 13 2.2.4 The CO2 budget for Europe, Germany and national sectors ........................ 15 2.3 Core principles and steps for ensuring compliance with a national CO2 budget ..............23 2.3.1 Switch rather than exit: renewable energies instead of fossil fuels ................ 24 2.3.2 No return to nuclear energy ................................................................... 27 2.3.3 The role of negative emis sions – limiting the use of CCS in Germany ............ 28 2.3.4 The need for regulation of the use of stemwood for energy ........................ 33 2.4 Governance: the key to remaining within the CO2 budget .......................................... 37 2.4.1 EU climate governance .......................................................................... 37 2.4.2 National climate governance .................................................................. 42 2.4.3 The Federal Climate Change Act in the context of the Paris Agreement ......... 49 2.5 Recommendations for action ................................................................................ 52 2.6 Conclusion ........................................................................................................ 56 2.7 List of relevant publications ................................................................................. 58 1 Figures Figures Figure 2-1 Correlation between CO2 emissions and temperature change ......................... 9 Figure 2-2 Emissions pathways for Germany compatible with the Paris climate targets (schematic) ................................................................................ 10 Figure 2-3 The CO2 budget as the basis for existing climate targets on different levels .. 11 Figure 2-4 Global warming as a result of national interpretations of equity .........................16 Figure 2-5 Cumulative historical CO2 emissions from the fossil fuel burning, cement manufacture and gas flaring ..................................................................... 17 Figure 2-6 Emissions reductions in line with national climate targets and Paris-compatible budget for Germany ..................................................................................22 Figure 2-7 Schematic representation of an overall budget-compatible reduction path including budget allocation to sectors ......................................................... 23 Figure 2-8 Processes covered by the term “negative emissions” ................................... 29 Figure 2-9 The carbon content of forests as a function of their management ...................... 36 Figure 2-10 Schematic representation of the ambition and implementation gaps in climate policy ...................................................................................... 38 Figure 2-11 Actual and projected greenhouse gas emissions in Germany taking into account agreed climate policy measures (in Mt CO2eq) ................................ 43 Figure 2-12 German, European and international climate policy cycles ............................ 52 Figure 2-13 Recommendations for the introduction, implementation and observance of the CO2 budget ....................................................................................... 53 2 Tables and Boxes Tables Table 2-1 Global CO2 budgets as shown in the IPCC Special Report ............................... 14 Table 2-2 Emissions by sector in line with the Federal Climate Change Act and the goal of greenhouse gas neutrality for all emissions by 2050 ...................................... 21 Table 2-3 Selection of EU climate and energy policy targets for 2030 ........................... 39 Table 2-4 Selected climate and energy policy goals for Germany .................................. 45 Boxes Box 2-1 The CO2 budget: Definition and exclusions .................................................. 8 Box 2-2 Calculating a Paris-compatible CO2 budget from 2020 onwards for the EU-28 and Germany ............................................................................... 19 Box 2-3 The ambition gap and the implementation gap in climate policy .................... 38 Box 2-4 Germany’s failure to meet climate policy targets and the resulting financial consequences ....................................................................................... 43 Box 2-5 The CO2 budget as a benchmark for political climate protection measures ..... 46 3 2 Using the CO2 budget to meet the Paris climate targets How much CO2 can Germany still emit if it is to make its fair contribution to compliance with the Paris Agree- ment? If climate change is to be limited to the agreed level, one where it remains just about manageable, an upper limit must be set for the CO2 emissions still glo- bally permissible. By distributing the emissions among the community of states, it is possible to arrive at a Ger- man CO2 budget in line with the principles of interna- tional distributive justice. The current German climate targets allow total emissions that exceed a national bud- get calculated in this way. In the Federal Climate Change Act, the Federal Government is supplementing existing climate targets with annual sectoral emissions limits up to 2030. This corresponds to the principle of national budgets but says too little about the level of ambition up to 2050. These emissions limits should be embed- ded in an overall budget up to 2050. The German Advisory Council on the Environment therefore recom- mends that the Federal Government should set a Ger- man CO2 budget compatible with the Paris Agreement and tighten the climate targets accordingly. The budget should not replace existing targets but serve as an over- arching basis for assessment. At the same time, it is urgently necessary to implement measures that will pave the way to climate neutrality, for example by acce- lerating the expansion of renewable energies. Only in this way can the use of fossil resources be quickly brought to an end. In order to keep within budget, pro- gress on reductions must be regularly reviewed and measures must be continuously refined. 5 Using the CO2 budget to meet the Paris climate targets 2.1 Introduction 4. In the current political debate, a large number of different goals and measures are being discussed. In ad- dition to the temperature targets in the Paris Agreement, 1. With the ratification of the Paris Agreement, the these include emissions reduction targets, formulated as Federal Republic of Germany has made a binding com- percentage reductions up to a target year compared to a mitment under international law to the climate targets base year. Specific target years for ending emissions from set out there (Deutscher Bundestag – Wissenschaftliche a specific source, such as coal-fired power generation, are Dienste 2018, p. 6). According to Art. 2 of the Paris Agree- also discussed. The goal of greenhouse gas neutrality for ment, the increase in the global average temperature is the entire economy is pursued for a specific target year. to be kept well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels Greenhouse gas neutrality means that there is equilibri- and efforts are to be pursued to limit the temperature um between anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases increase to 1.5 °C. The signatory states, including Ger- from sources and the removal of such gases by sinks. many, have therefore committed themselves to contin- uously reducing national greenhouse gas emissions and Climate policy targets are also set at various levels: glob- to becoming completely climate-neutral by the second al, European, national, Federal States (Länder), munici- half of this century at the latest. A more ambitious cli- pal and sectoral levels. The targets vary in ambition and mate policy in Germany is also increasingly being called level of bindingness, and they are often inadequately co- for by the general public (Infratest dimap 2019, p. 3 and ordinated with each other. The European climate targets 5). Only if climate change can be limited to the agreed are mainly operationalised in the form of greenhouse gas level will it be possible to prevent most of the elemental budgets up to 2030. German climate policy has so far been dangers that threaten the environment and societies of based on emissions reduction targets. The Federal Climate the world (IPCC 2018b). For example, the further in- Change Act supplements these targets for the first time crease in extreme weather events and their impact on with sectoral greenhouse gas budgets up to 2030. How- infra structure and land use would be limited (COUMOU ever, a Paris-compatible transformation path up to 2050 et al. 2013) and important tipping points for the Earth's is lacking, both at the European and the German level. climate system would not be exceeded (SCHELLNHU- BER et al. 2016). 5.
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