Capital Punishment How Economic Geography Shapes Low-capability Warfare Charles Butcher Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Government and International Relations Faculty of Economics and Business University of Sydney August 2011 Statement of Originality This is to certify that to the best of my knowledge, the content of this thesis is my own work. This thesis has not been submitted for any degree or other purposes. I certify that the intellectual content of this thesis is the product of my own work and that all the assistance received in preparing this thesis and sources have been acknowledged Charles Butcher ii For my wife. iii Table of Contents Table of Contents iv Figures v Abbreviations vii Acknowledgements xi Synopsis xii VOLUME I Chapter One: Introduction 2 Chapter Two: Military Strategy in Low-capability Warfare 23 Chapter Three: Hypotheses and Methods 65 VOLUME II Chapter Four: Low-capability Warfare and the Risk of Fighting 140 in Africa’s Capitals Chapter Five: Low-capability Warfare and the Concentration of 167 Fighting in Africa’s Capitals Chapter Six: Foreign Intervention in Low-capability Warfare 211 Chapter Seven: The Liberian Civil War 241 Chapter Eight: Conclusion 283 Appendix 289 Bibliography 292 iv Figures Figure 2.1: Types of Warfare in Civil War 27 Figure 2.2: The Relationship Between Tactics and Strategy 31 Figure 2.3: A Typology of Military Tactics 37 Figure 2.4: Dominant Military Strategies by Relative Capabilities 40 Figure 2.5: Strategic Profile and Predictions, Low-capability Warfare 57 Figure 2.6: Strategic Profile and Predictions, Conventional Warfare 60 Figure 2.7: Strategic Profile and Predictions, Guerrilla Warfare 63 Figure 2.8: Summary, Strategic Profiles and Predictions 64 Figure 3.1: Net Overseas Development Assistance to Sub-Saharan 79 Africa, 1960-2008 Figure 3.2: The Natural Log of the Distance from the Capital 126 Figure 4.1: Frequency and Proportion of Conflict Years by Warfare Type 143 Figure 4.2: Warfare Type in Africa, 1960-2008 145 Figure 4.3: Combined US and USSR/Russian Arms Transfers to 148 Sub-Saharan Africa, 1960-2008 Figure 4.4: Incidence and Proportion of Fighting within 25km of 149 the Capital City, 1960-2008 Figure 4.5: Descriptive Statistics by Warfare Type 150 Figure 4.6: Models 4.1 – 4.6, Risk to Africa’s Capitals, 1960-2008 152 Figure 4.7: Probability of Fighting within 25km of the Capital by Time 154 Figure 4.8: Probability of Fighting in Luanda vs Arms Imports 158 Figure 4.9: Correlates of Fighting Onset in Low-capability, Guerrilla and 164 Conventional Warfare Figure 5.1: Battle Concentration by Warfare Type, 1997-2008 168 Figure 5.2: Residual Values from Model 5.1 by COW Number 169 Figure 5.3: Battle Concentration in the Capital vs Time 171 v Figure 5.4: Models 5.1 – 5.4, Battle Concentration and 172 Low-capability Warfare, 1997-2008 Figure 5.5: Unipolar Low-capability Warfare 175 Figure 5.6: Bipolar Low-capability Warfare 181 Figure 5.7: Battle Concentrations, Sierra Leone, 1991-2000 182 Figure 5.8: Battle Concentrations, Uganda and Guinea 191 Figure 5.9: Battle Concentrations in Conventional Warfare 193 Figure 5.10: Battle Concentrations, Democratic Republic of Congo, 196 1997-2001 Figure 5.11: Battle Concentrations in Guerrilla Warfare 204 Figure 6.1: Military Interventions in African Civil Wars, 1960-2003 212 Figure 6.2: Descriptive Statistics: Military Intervention by Warfare Type 216 Figure 6.3: Models 6.1 – 6.5, Foreign Intervention in Low-capability, 217 Conventional and Guerrilla Warfare Figure 6.4: Probability of Foreign Intervention in Low-capability 222 Warfare vs Time Figure 6.5: Changes in Probability of Military Intervention in 223 Sierra Leone’s Civil War, Low-capability and Conventional Warfare, Extracted from Model 6.1 Figure 6.6: Predicted Probability of Intervention in 224 Sierra Leone’s Civil War, Extracted from Model 6.1 Figure 6.7: Predicted Probability of French Intervention in the 232 Chadian Civil War, Extracted from Model 6.3, 1982-1990 Figure 6.8: Probability of Military Intervention in Ethiopia’s 236 War with the WSLF, Extracted from Model 6.2 Figure 7.1: Liberia 242 Figure 7.2: Monrovia 244 Figure 7.3: US Economic and Military Assistance to Liberia, 1946-1989 251 Figure 7.4: Spatial Distribution of Battles between the 260 AFL, NPFL and INPFL, December 1989 – August 1990 vi Abbreviations ACLED Armed Conflict Location Event Dataset ADFL Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Congo AFL Armed Forces of Liberia AFRC Armed Forces Revolutionary Council [Sierra Leone] AK-47 Automat Kalashnikova 1947 AMISOM African Union Mission in Somalia ANC African National Congress [South Africa] APC Armoured Personnel Carrier BG Buhaug and Gates [2002 Publication and Data] BR Buhaug and Rod [2006 Publication and Data] CBD Central Business District CDF Civil Defence Force [Sierra Leone] CIA Central Intelligence Agency [United States] CINC Composite Index of National Capability COW Correlates of War CSCE Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe DRC Democratic Republic of Congo ECOMOG Economic Community of West African States Cease Fire Monitoring Group ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States EDACS Event Data Project on Conflict and Security [Free University of Berlin] EO Executive Outcomes EPDRF Ethiopian People’s Democratic Revolutionary Front EPLF Eritrean People’s Liberation Front EU Expected Utility FAA Armed Forces of Angola FAC Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo FANT National Army of Chad FAPLA Popular Armed Forces for the Liberation of Angola FAR Armed Forces of Rwanda FARC Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia vii FAZ Armed Forces of Zaire FDP Forcibly Displaced Populations [Dataset] FLEC Front for the Liberation of the Enclave of Cabinda FNL National Forces of Liberation [Burundi] FNLA National Front for the Liberation of Angola GCP Gross Cell Product GDP Gross Domestic Product GEE Generalised Estimation Equation GNUT Transitional Government of National Unity [Chad] GSG Ghurkah Security Guards ICC International Criminal Court ICU Islamic Courts Union [Somalia] IDP Internally Displaced Person IMF International Monetary Fund INPFL Independent Patriotic Front of Liberia JEM Justice and Equality Movement [Sudan] KB Kalyvas and Balcells [2010 Publication and Data] LDF Lesotho Defence Force LIMCO Liberian Iron Mining Company LPC Liberia Peace Council LRA Lord’s Resistance Army [Uganda] LURD Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy MFDC Democratic Forces of Casamance Movement [Senegal] MID Militarised Interstate Dispute MLC Movement for the Liberation of Congo MLE Maximum Likelihood Estimation MPLA People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation NCO Non-Commissioned Officer NDPVF Niger Delta People’s Volunteer Force NPFL National Patriotic Front of Liberia NPRC National Provisional Ruling Council [Sierra Leone] NRA National Resistance Army [Uganda] OAU Organisation of African Unity viii OLS Ordinary Least Squares PALIR Army for the Liberation of Rwanda POLISARIO Popular Front for the Liberation of Saguia el-Hamra and Rio de Oro RCD Rally for Congolese Democracy RCT Rational Choice Theory RENAMO Mozambique National Resistance RFDG Rally of Democratic Forces of Guinea ROC Republic of Congo RPF Rwandan Patriotic Front RPG Rocket Propelled Grenade RSLMF Republic of Sierra Leone Military Forces RUF Revolutionary United Front SACU Southern African Customs Union SADC Southern African Development Community SCPS Societe Centrafricaine de Protection et de Surveillance SMC Standing Mediation Committee [ECOWAS] SNA Somali National Army SNA Somali National Alliance [rebel group] SNC Symmetric Non-Conventional Warfare SNM Somali National Movement SIPRI Stockholm Peace Research Institute SPLM Southern People’s Liberation Movement [Sudan] TFG Somali Transitional Federal Government TPLF Tigray People’s Liberation Front TWP True Whig Party [Liberia] ULIMO United Liberation Movement of Liberia for Democracy UN United Nations UNAVEM United Nations Verification Mission in Angola UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNITA National Union for the Total Independence of Angola UNITAF United Task Force [United States] UNOCI United Nations Operation in Cote d’Ivoire UPDF Ugandan People’s Defence Force US United States of America ix USC United Somali Congress USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics VIF Variance Inflation Factor WNBF West Nile Bank Front [Uganda] WSLF Western Somali Liberation Front ZANU Zimbabwean African National Union x Acknowledgements I am firstly thankful for the opportunity to complete this degree. It is a rare privilege. Thanks must go to my supervisors, Professor Graeme Gill and Associate Professor Ben Goldsmith. I have benefited enormously from Graeme’s incisive and considered feedback throughout various manifestations of this dissertation. Ben Goldsmith first showed interest in my research at a ‘work in progress seminar’ some years ago. He has been a constant source of encouragement and knowledge since. Both Ben and Graeme have gone beyond the call in these last few months and I am truly indebted to both. I would like to thank Dr. Betsi Beem whom has shown a keen interest in my research since taking over as the Postgraduate Research Coordinator. Her door has always been open for advice and her enthusiasm for the postgraduate researchers at the university was greatly valued. Thankyou to Dr. Adam Lockyer for the coffee and the honest advice. I must also thank Dr Duncan Macinnis and Alistair Carmichael for their conversation, friendship and critical eye. Thankyou to the Faculty of Economics and Business for financially supporting this research. It goes without saying that the errors herein are my own. There is simply no way to adequately thank my family. To my Mum and Dad for supporting me not only through this dissertation, but for instilling in me a passion to learn. Your support and love have been unwavering. From surfing in G-land to Sunday dinners and borrowing cars I could not have done this without your help.