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(22) 27-05-2016.Indd MAY 22 - MAY 28, 2016 WEEK 22 CONTACTS The MENA WEEKLY MONITOR Treasury & Capital Markets Bechara Serhal Economy ___________________________________________________________________________ (961-1) 977421 [email protected] p.2 EFG HERMES SAYS MENA BANKS’ LIQUIDITY TIGHTENS WHILE ASSET QUALITY STRESS IS YET TO EMERGE Nadine Akkawi EFG Hermes recently issued its 1Q2016 MENA banks trend tracker, arguing that banks in the region saw a (961-1) 977401 further slowdown in earnings growth after a weak fourth quarter of 2015. [email protected] Also in this issue Private Banking p.3 GCC countries' institutional strength to determine their ability to push through economic and Toufic Aouad fiscal reforms, says Moody's (961-1) 954922 p.3 Saudi Arabia’s foreign assets fall to lowest level in four years [email protected] p.4 Kuwait’s inflation rate eases to 2.9% year-on-year in April 2016 Corporate Banking Surveys ___________________________________________________________________________ Khalil Debs p.5 MIDDLE EAST’S HOSPITALITY MARKETS WITNESSES WEAK PERFORMANCE IN (961-1) 977229 [email protected] FIRST FOUR MONTHS OF 2016, AS PER EY Ernst & Young issued its latest Hotel Benchmark Survey on the Middle East according to which occupancy rates increased in three cities within the region, and decreased in eleven cities. Also in this issue p.6 Fitch affirms Egypt's Long-Term Foreign and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at “B” with a “stable” outlook RESEARCH Corporate News ___________________________________________________________________________ p.7 SAUDI BINLADIN GROUP SECURES MALDIVES AIRPORT CONTRACT Construction firm Saudi Binladin Group secured a contract to build a new passenger terminal at the Marwan Barakat Maldives international airport which is being built at a total cost of US$ 800 million. (961-1) 977409 [email protected] Also in this issue p.7 Kuwait to sign US$ 1 billion contract with Italy’s Salini and Turkey’s Limak JV for South Al Mutlaa Jamil Naayem (961-1) 977406 City Project [email protected] p.7 Emicool awards contract for US$ 32 million Dubai Sports City cooling system p.8 ADFG and Bahrain's GFH to launch Islamic bank in Abu Dhabi Salma Saad Baba p.8 Dubai Properties unveils plan for new two-tower project (961-1) 977346 p.8 Saudi's SABIC inks deal to build China petrochemicals project [email protected] Markets In Brief ___________________________________________________________________________ Fadi Kanso (961-1) 977470 p.9 EQUITY PRICES DOWN AHEAD OF RAMADAN, BOND PRICES MIXED [email protected] MENA equity markets saw extended price declines this week, as reflected by a 1.4% drop in the S&P Pan Arab Composite Index, mainly driven by price falls in the Saudi Tadawul and the Qatar Exchange, amid Gerard Arabian some profit-taking operations ahead of the Holy month of Ramadan and as some market players left (961-1) 964047 room for large regional bond issues. In parallel, regional bond markets saw mixed price movements. [email protected] Some papers registered price declines as market players reduced their holdings in order to leave room for new regional issues. On the other hand, some other papers recorded price increases amid some Farah Nahlawi offshore buying. (961-1) 959747 [email protected] MENA MARKETS: WEEK OF MAY 22 - MAY 28, 2016 Nivine Turyaki (961-1) 959615 [email protected] Week 22 May 22 - May 28, 2016 1 Bank Audi sal - Group Research Department - Bank Audi Plaza - Bab Idriss - PO Box 11-2560 - Lebanon - Tel: 961 1 994 000 - email: [email protected] MAY 22 - MAY 28, 2016 WEEK 22 ECONOMY ______________________________________________________________________________ EFG HERMES SAYS MENA BANKS’ LIQUIDITY TIGHTENS WHILE ASSET QUALITY STRESS IS YET TO EMERGE EFG Hermes recently issued its first quarter of 2016 MENA banks trend tracker, arguing that banks in the region saw a further slowdown in earnings growth after a weak fourth quarter of 2015. As a matter of fact, aggregate earnings growth for MENA banks under coverage (45 banks) has been steadily decelerating over the past three quarters, and slowed to a five-year record low of just 1% year- on-year in the first quarter of 2016, from 4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2015. Furthermore, and out of the 45 MENA banks covered by the report, 29 saw a slower earnings growth when compared to the first quarter of 2015, while 13 saw a higher growth and three reported almost no change, as per EFG Hermes. Loan growth has held up relatively well, posting a 9.7% yearly increase but revenue growth on an aggregate basis slowed to 1.8% year-on-year, driven by net interest margin compression and lower non- interest income, as per the same source. Deposit growth has further decelerated and tight liquidity will continued to add pressure to banks’ net interest margins and earnings, as per EFG Hermes, particularly in Qatar and Saudi Arabia. EFG Hermes went on to report the main trends characterizing MENA banks in this year’s first quarter. First, deposit growth weakened further, as per the report, decelerating to 4.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2016, against a 5.4% yearly growth in the previous quarter and a 9.8% yearly growth in the fourth quarter of 2014. Second, loan growth has been stable, continuing to positively surprise at the aggregate level (+9.7% in this year’s first quarter). Loan growth was unchanged relative to the fourth quarter of 2015, noting that the strongest loan growth markets continue to be Egypt and Qatar. Third, net interest margins continued to tighten on a yearly basis in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman. Higher policy rates have been generally positive for Egypt banks’ NIMs. MENA BANKS' 1Q 2016 RESULTS (YEARLY TRENDS VERSUS 1Q 2015)* Source: EFG Hermes Week 22 May 22 - May 28, 2016 2 MAY 22 - MAY 28, 2016 WEEK 22 Fourth, fee income growth has been generally poor, on weak trade finance volumes, as per the report. Data reveals that MENA banks under coverage saw a 5% and 1% yearly increase in net interest income and fee income respectively, pretty much the same growth rates as in the fourth quarter of 2015 (on a year-on-year basis as well). Fifth, credit quality was broadly unchanged, with EFG Hermes only seeing a marginal uptick in provisioning costs in most markets. Earnings growth reported for banks under coverage proved broadly in line with pre-provision earnings growth. _____________________________________________________________________________ GCC COUNTRIES' INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTH TO DETERMINE THEIR ABILITY TO PUSH THROUGH ECONOMIC AND FISCAL REFORMS, SAYS MOODY'S Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries' institutional strength would determine their ability to push through economic and fiscal reforms designed to counter the drop in oil revenue, as per a recent report by Moody's. The report, titled "Sovereigns -- Gulf Cooperation Council: Peer Comparison - Institutional Strength Determines Adjustment To Lower Oil Prices", notes that Moody's recent review of the ratings of GCC countries considered each sovereign's capacity to formulate and implement effective policy responses to the lower oil prices. The review concluded with a downgrade of three GCC sovereign ratings, and a “negative” outlook assigned to four ratings that were confirmed. It is worth noting that the rating agency’s assessment of institutional strength incorporates policy effectiveness, governance indicators and transparency. According to the report, sovereigns implemented several fiscal measures to adjust to lower revenues. The introduction of a GCC wide value-added tax (VAT) of 5% from 2018 would support revenue diversification, while governments are also considering increases in corporate income taxes and taxes on remittances. The reforms, while positive, would only partly compensate for the continued oil price slump. As such, Moody's expects that fiscal and external constraints would persist beyond 2016. Moreover, the social impact of fiscal reforms would make policy implementation tougher for Bahrain (“Ba2 negative”), Oman (“Baa1 stable”) and Saudi Arabia (“A1 stable”), where governments are under pressure to continue redistributing oil revenues to their populations to avoid economic-related civil unrest. In comparison, Kuwait (“Aa2 negative”), Qatar (“Aa2 negative”) and the United Arab Emirates (“Aa2 negative”) have fewer such constraints, according to the rating agency. In fact, governance frameworks are at various stages of development and diverging. Relative to globally rated sovereigns, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have high institutional strength scores. Bahrain's and Oman's scores rank toward the middle, while Kuwait's and Saudi Arabia's scores are weaker. Last but not least, reserve buffers are a key credit support for many GCC sovereigns. However, there is a high degree of opacity in policy making and fiscal buffers compared to global peers, particularly for Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE. _____________________________________________________________________________ SAUDI ARABIA’S FOREIGN ASSETS FALL TO LOWEST LEVEL IN FOUR YEARS Saudi Arabia’s net foreign assets fell for a 15th month in April 2016, as the Kingdom announced its Vision 2030 for a post-oil future. The Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency announced that net foreign assets declined by 1.1% to reach US$572 billion, the lowest level in four years. The slump in crude prices forced the government to sell bonds and draw on its currency reserves, which is still among the world’s largest. The Kingdom’s net foreign assets fell by US$ 115 billion last year, when the kingdom ran a budget deficit of nearly US$ 100 billion, as per Bloomberg. Week 22 May 22 - May 28, 2016 3 MAY 22 - MAY 28, 2016 WEEK 22 The fiscal crunch led Saudi Arabia to look beyond oil, consider new taxes and plan an initial public offering of State energy major Saudi Aramco. As a result, the Deputy Crown sketched out the planned changes dubbed Saudi Vision 2030 on April 25th.
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