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Calgary Downtown Office Market Report

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Calgary Downtown Office Market Report Calgary Downtown Office Market Report Q4 2019 Net Absorption MARKET OUTLOOK It was an active quarter for Calgary’s Downtown Office Market on the back of the Though transaction velocity has slowed given This Quarter Previous Quarter Canadian Federal Election, with a generally recent market conditions, Calgary saw a -620,385 SF -353,782 SF negative reaction by Calgary’s energy multitude of deals over 20,000 SF in the community to the outcome. Husky announced Downtown Office Market in 2019, of which layoffs the following morning which equated to Colliers Calgary directly advised on over two YTD Absorption the vacancy of the remainder of space they thirds. This volume of sizeable transactions occupied in the south tower of Western was partially driven by the flight to quality and -169,771 SF Canadian Place (~220,000 SF). Bankers Hall’s creative transaction structures targeting West Tower saw Repsol follow suit, as they balance sheet and/or income statement released five of their floors (~120,000 SF) onto improvements, driven by new lease recognition the sublease market. Of greatest significance to rules and not by contractual expiries. We Vacancy absorption this quarter was the addition of the expect similar trends to continue in 2020. entire former CNOOC/Nexen building This Quarter Previous Quarter (~600,000 SF), now named 801 Seventh to Though still de minimis in size relative to the 25.05% vacant inventory. Looking at 2019 as a whole, downsizing of the energy complex, we have 26.32% more than 1,100,000 SF in sublease and seen a number of technology companies from headlease space was added to the Downtown both inside and outside of Calgary transact in This Quarter Previous Quarter Market, however we only experienced negative the Downtown Core this quarter. Most notably, absorption of ~170,000 SF which reflects the Colliers advised on an 80,000 SF deal between SF SF 11,722,108 11,125,719 steady transaction volume that occurred during Telus Sky and Absorb Software, who will the year. relocate from its 35,000 SF headquarters in Inglewood to this AA space on 7th Avenue and Encana announced a decision one week post Centre Street. This continues the trend of Headlease Vacancy election to relocate its headquarters to Denver, reverse migration by tenants in the Suburban Colorado – though there were no layoffs and Beltline Office Markets, into Calgary’s This Quarter Previous Quarter announced as part of the change, it was very central business district. Companies such as 20.31% 18.92% negative overall for sentiment. The Canadian Finger Food Advanced Technology Group, are Oil & Gas sector continued to face significant expanding into Calgary from outside the challenges with respect to global commodity province, as they become the newest addition Sublease Vacancy prices, differentials, access to capital markets, to Brookfield Place this quarter. A litany of regulatory hurdles and legislative changes. quality space options and incentives provided This Quarter Previous Quarter Although there are some indications that 2020 by landlords as well as reduced property taxes could be a more promising year for this sector, from The City of Calgary, have largely 6.08% 5.82% we do not expect that to translate into activity contributed to these moves in 2019, however, which would materially offset vacancy rates we see the former starting to hold in what is near-term. increasingly tighter AA space. Accelerating success. collierscanada.com/research Downtown Overview Sublease Vacancy Rate Sublease/Headlease Composition 01 By Class | Q2 2018 – Q4 2019 02 By Quarter Sublease % of Total Vacancy 18% 16% 14% AA 12% AA 10% AA AA AA 8% AA AA 6% 4% 2% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 A B C A B C A B C A B C A B C A B C A B C 0% 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Headlease Sublease Headlease Vacancy Rate Vacancy Rate by Class 03 By Class | Q2 2018 – Q4 2019 04 Q3 2019 – Q4 2019 40% 17.07% 27.14% 37.18% 30% AA A B 17.13% Q3’19 22.27% Q3’19 36.94% Q3’19 20% 10% 34.99% 26.24% A B C A B C A B C A B C A B C A B C A B C AA AA AA AA AA AA AA 0% C Total Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 34.71% Q3’19 25.05% Q3’19 Downtown Historical Overview Vacancy Rate Net Absorption New Supply 05 Availability vs. Net Absorption and New Supply Forecast 2,000,000 30% 25% 1,500,000 20% 1,000,000 Rate Vacancy 15% 500,000 10% 5% 0 0% Absorption & New Supply (SF) & Supply New Absorption -500,000 -5% -1,000,000 -10% Colliers Canada | Calgary Office Market Report | Q4 2019 collierscanada.com/research P.2 Downtown Calgary Market Statistics Building Class AA A B C Total Number of Buildings 21 34 39 69 164 Office Vacancy (SF) Current Quarter 2,806,837 3,809,279 3,207,315 1,898,677 11,722,108 Previous Quarter 2,817,738 3,105,247 3,186,884 1,883,414 10,993,283 Vacancy Rate Current Quarter 17.07% 27.14% 37.18% 34.99% 26.32% Previous Quarter 17.13% 22.27% 36.94% 34.71% 25.05% % Sublease Vacancy Current Quarter 9.75% 5.78% 1.75% 2.49% 6.08% Previous Quarter 9.74% 5.13% 1.86% 2.51% 5.82% % Headlease Vacancy Current Quarter 7.31% 21.37% 35.43% 32.50% 20.31% Previous Quarter 7.39% 17.32% 35.13% 32.22% 18.92% Sublease Availability Featured Sale & Lease Transactions Current Quarter 1,603,976 810,573 150,716 135,171 2,700,436 Previous Quarter 1,601,887 692,992 156,539 136,061 2,586,479 Headlease Availability Current Quarter 1,202,861 2,998,706 3,056,599 1,763,506 9,021,672 Previous Quarter 1,215,851 2,424,616 3,017,984 1,846,501 8,504,952 Absorption Current Quarter 10,901 (595,592) (20,431) (15,263) (620,385) Previous Quarter (116,968) (324,457) 86,976 667 (353,782) Notable Lease Transactions Transaction Type Building Name Address Submarket Company Size *Headlease Telus Sky 685 Centre Street SW Central Absorb Software Inc. 80,000 SF *Sublease Eighth Avenue Place - West 585 8 Avenue SW Central Pembina Pipeline Company 48,000 SF Headlease Suncor Energy - East 111 5 Avenue SW East Suncor Energy Inc. 44,000 SF *Headlease Centennial Place – West 250 5 Street SW Central Crew Energy Inc. 35,000 SF Sublease Fifth Avenue Place - West 237 4 Avenue SW Central Canlin Energy Corporation 35,000 SF *Headlease BP Centre 240 4 Avenue SW Central Torxen Energy Ltd. 33,000 SF *Sublease Jamieson Place 308 4 Avenue SW Central Arcurve Inc. 23,500 SF *Colliers was involved in deal Colliers Canada | Calgary Office Market Report | Q4 2019 collierscanada.com/research P.3 Colliers Research Colliers Research is the industry cornerstone of authoritative statistics, forecasts and market commentary across Canada. With more than 20 years of comprehensive market data, extensive research capabilities and access to ‘live’ deal information – there is no other research firm in Canada that can provide such a complete commercial real estate research solution. With more than 20 dedicated research specialists, supported by over 35 data intelligence analysts – our world-class researchers are continuously sourcing and analyzing data in every major market across Canada – to ensure our clients receive the most accurate and powerful information to make critical decisions for their future. Core Services: • Predictive market research • Reporting on key insights and trends • Access to the latest market data • Customized research engagements For more information on the Calgary Office Market, please contact: Matt Rachiele Cole Trifunov Managing Director Research Coordinator +1 403 629 0402 +1 403 298 0416 [email protected] [email protected] Contributors: Craig Hulsman | Associate Vice President Aly Lalani | Executive Vice President | Partner Steve Berman | Senior Associate Jim Rea | Executive Vice President | Partner Brady Braund | Associate Dan Lannon | Senior Vice President | Partner Warren Hedges | Senior Vice President | Partner Casey Roland | Associate | Team Transaction Manager Todd Sutcliffe | Vice President | Partner Jane Taylor | Associate | Client Project Specialist Leigh Kirnbauer | Vice President | Partner Patrick McGillis | Associate To see the latest news from Colliers David Harvey | Senior Vice President Jarrett Rafuse | Leasing Assistant International in Canada, follow Doug May | Senior Vice President @collierscanada on Twitter and Dan Robertson | Leasing Assistant Colliers International on LinkedIn. Kevin McGillis | Senior Vice President Kelly Zarchekoff | Office Project Specialist Copyright ©2020 Colliers International Sharma Christie | Senior Vice President Mackenzie Clarry | Brokerage Project Specialist The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the Colliers International Inc. material contained in this report. 900, 335 8th Ave SW Calgary, AB | Canada +1 403 266 544 Accelerating success. collierscanada.com/research.
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