UC Berkeley Fisher Center Working Papers
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Staff Working Paper No. 845 Eight Centuries of Global Real Interest Rates, R-G, and the ‘Suprasecular’ Decline, 1311–2018 Paul Schmelzing
CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 CODE OF PRACTICE 2007 -
How to Beat the Recession
Taxcafe.co.uk Business Guides How to Beat the Recession Make Sure Your Business Prospers While Others Struggle By Alistair Gibb Important Legal Notices: Taxcafe® BUSINESS GUIDE – “How to Beat the Recession” Published by: Taxcafe UK Limited 67 Milton Road Kirkcaldy KY1 1TL United Kingdom Tel: (01592) 560081 First Edition, June 2009 ISBN 978-1-904608-96-7 Copyright Copyright © Alistair Gibb 2009. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means (electronically or mechanically, including photocopying, recording or storing it in any medium by electronic means) without the prior permission in writing of the copyright owner except in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 or under the terms of a licence issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency Ltd, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London, W1P 0LP. All applications for the written permission of the copyright owner to reproduce or transmit any part of the guide should be sent to the publisher. Warning: Any unauthorised reproduction or transmission of any part of this guide may result in criminal prosecution and a civil claim for damages. Trademarks Taxcafe® is a registered trademark of Taxcafe UK Limited. All other logos, trademarks, names and logos in this guide may be trademarks of their respective owners. Disclaimer Before reading or relying on the content of this guide, please read carefully the disclaimer on the last page which applies. If you have queries then please contact the publisher at [email protected]. About the Author Alistair Gibb studied economics and business at Durham University and the University of Strathclyde and then joined the 3i Group, where he held senior positions in both the investment and merchant banking sides of the business. -
“To Establish a More Effective Supervision of Banking:” How the Birth of the Fed Altered Bank Supervision
“To Establish a More Effective Supervision of Banking:” How the Birth of the Fed Altered Bank Supervision Abstract Although bank supervision under the National Banking System exercised a light hand and panics were frequent, the cost of bank failures was minimal. Double liability induced shareholders to carefully monitor bank managers and voluntarily liquidate banks early if they appeared to be in trouble. Inducing more disclosure, marking assets to market, and ensuring prompt closure of insolvent national banks, the Comptroller of the Currency reinforced market discipline. The arrival of the Federal Reserve weakened this regime. Monetary policy decisions conflicted with the goal of financial stability and created moral hazard. The appearance of the Fed as an additional supervisor led to more “competition in laxity” among regulators and “regulatory arbitrage” by banks. When the Great Depression hit, policy-induced deflation and asset price volatility were misdiagnosed as failures of competition and market valuation. In response, the New Deal shifted to a regime of discretion-based supervision with forbearance. 100th Anniversary of the Jekyll Island Conference Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Eugene N. White Rutgers University and NBER Department of Economics New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA Phone: 732-932-7363 Fax: 732-932-7416 [email protected] October 2010 “An Act to provide for the establishment of Federal reserve banks, to furnish an elastic currency, to afford means of rediscounting commercial paper, to establish a more effective supervision of banking in the United States, and for other purposes.”—the title of the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 [emphasis added] While the formation and development of the Federal Reserve has been intensively studied, histories of the Fed, from Milton Friedman and Anna J. -
The Case for a Limited Central Bank Yeareen
The case for a Limited Central Bank Yun The Case for a Limited Central Bank Yeareen Yun [email protected] MOUNT HOLYOKE COLLEGE Volume 5, Number 1 Journal for Global Business and Community http://jgbc.fiu.edu Consortium for Undergraduate International Business Education The case for a Limited Central Bank Yun In his book, The Alchemists, Neil Irwin (2013) follows the history of the recent financial crisis of 2007, examining the difficult decisions made and the bold actions carried out by three central bankers: Ben Bernanke of the Federal Reserve, Mervyn King of the Bank of England, and Jean-Claude Trichet of the European Central Bank (ECB). Irwin not only justifies the unconventional methods such as quantitative easing, that was used by these three men, but applauds them, for “peace and prosperity… require people like Bernanke, King, and Trichet to safeguard them, often by doing things that are widely unpopular” (p.388). He accepts the expanding role of the central banks as a necessary measure given the changing times. He believes “central banks [should not] let precedent or politics stop them from doing what they need to do to keep their economies healthy” at all costs even, if it means bailing out investment banks, telling Parliament how to manage its books, and propping up financially troubled economies (p.390). Irwin believes we shouldn’t expect perfection, but rather progress, and trust intelligent men to handle economic crises and manage the economies in ways that they best see fit because they are so “technically complex that we can’t put them to a vote” (p.390). -
Deflation: a Business Perspective
Deflation: a business perspective Prepared by the Corporate Economists Advisory Group Introduction Early in 2003, ICC's Corporate Economists Advisory Group discussed the risk of deflation in some of the world's major economies, and possible consequences for business. The fear was that historically low levels of inflation and faltering economic growth could lead to deflation - a persistent decline in the general level of prices - which in turn could trigger economic depression, with widespread company and bank failures, a collapse in world trade, mass unemployment and years of shrinking economic activity. While the risk of deflation is now remote in most countries - given the increasingly unambiguous signs of global economic recovery - its potential costs are very high and would directly affect companies. This issues paper was developed to help companies better understand the phenomenon of deflation, and to give them practical guidance on possible measures to take if and when the threat of deflation turns into reality on a future occasion. What is deflation? Deflation is defined as a sustained fall in an aggregate measure of prices (such as the consumer price index). By this definition, changes in prices in one economic sector or falling prices over short periods (e.g., one or two quarters) do not qualify as deflation. Dec lining prices can be driven by an increase in supply due to technological innovation and rapid productivity gains. These supply-induced shocks are usually not problematic and can even be accompanied by robust growth, as experienced by China. A fall in prices led by a drop in demand - due to a severe economic cycle, tight economic policies or a demand-side shock - or by persistent excess capacity can be much more harmful, and is more likely to lead to persistent deflation. -
The Historic Failure of the Chicago School of Antitrust Mark Glick
Antitrust and Economic History: The Historic Failure of the Chicago School of Antitrust Mark Glick1 Working Paper No. 95 May 2019 ABSTRACT This paper presents an historical analysis of the antitrust laws. Its central contention is that the history of antitrust can only be understood in light of U.S. economic history and the succession of dominant economic policy regimes that punctuated that history. The antitrust laws and a subset of other related policies have historically focused on the negative consequences resulting from the rise, expansion, and dominance of big business. Antitrust specifically uses competition as its tool to address these problems. The paper traces the evolution of the emergence, growth and expansion of big business over six economic eras: the Gilded Age, the Progressive Era, the New Deal, the post-World War II Era, the 1970s, and the era of neoliberalism. It considers three policy regimes: laissez-faire during the Gilded Age and the Progressive Era, the New Deal, policy regime from the Depression through the early 1970s, and the neoliberal policy regime that dominates today and includes the Chicago School of antitrust. The principal conclusion of the paper is that the activist antitrust policies associated with the New Deal that existed from the late 1 Professor, Department of Economics, University of Utah. Email: [email protected]. I would like to thank members of the University of Utah Competition Group, Catherine Ruetschlin, Marshall Steinbaum, and Ted Tatos for their help and input. I also benefited from suggestions and guidance from Gérard Duménil’s 2019 seminar on economic history at the University of Utah. -
This Is the Heritage Society After All – to 1893, and the Shape of This
1 IRVING HERITAGE SOCIETY PRESENTATION By Maura Gast, Irving CVB October 2010 For tonight’s program, and because this is the Irving Heritage Society, after all, I thought I’d take a departure from my usual routine (which probably everyone in this room has heard too many times) and talk a little bit about the role the CVB plays in an historical context instead. I’m hopeful that as champions of heritage and history in general, that you’ll indulge me on this path tonight, and that you’ll see it all come back home to Irving by the time I’m done. Because there were really three key factors that led to the convention industry as we know it today and to our profession. And they are factors that, coupled with some amazing similarities to what’s going on in our world today, are worth paying attention to. How We as CVBs Came to Be • The Industrial Revolution – And the creation of manufacturing organizations • The Railroad Revolution • The Panic of 1893 One was the industrial revolution and its associated growth of large manufacturing organizations caused by the many technological innovations of that age. The second was the growth of the railroad, and ultimately the Highway system here in the US. And the third was the Panic of 1893. The Concept of “Associations” 2 The idea of “associations” has historically been an American concept – this idea of like‐minded people wanting to gather together in what came to be known as conventions. And when you think about it, there have been meetings and conventions of some kind taking place since recorded time. -
Research & Policy Brief No.47
Research & Policy Briefs From the World Bank Malaysia Hub No. 47 May 24, 2021 Demand and Supply Dynamics in East Asia during the COVID-19 Recession Ergys Islamaj, Franz Ulrich Ruch, and Eka Vashakmadze The COVID-19 pandemic has devastated lives and damaged economies, requiring strong and decisive policy responses from governments. Developing Public Disclosure Authorized the optimal short-term and long-term policy response to the pandemic requires understanding the demand and supply factors that drive economic growth. The appropriate policy response will depend on the size and duration of demand and supply shocks. This Research & Policy Brief provides a decomposition of demand and supply dynamics at the macroeconomic level for the large developing economies of East Asia. The findings suggest that both demand and supply shocks were important drivers of output fluctuations during the first year of the pandemic. The demand shocks created an environment of deficient demand—reflected in large negative output gaps even after the unprecedented policy response—which is expected to last through 2021. The extant deficient demand is suggestive of continued need to support the economic recovery. Its size should guide policy makers in calibrating responses to ensure that recovery is entrenched, and that short-term supply disruptions do not lead to long-term declines in potential growth. The Pandemic-Induced Shock Low external demand will continue to affect economies reliant on tourism, while sluggish domestic demand will disproportionally affect The pandemic, national lockdowns, and reverberations from the rest economies with large services sectors. Understanding the demand of the world inflicted a massive shock to the East Asia and Pacific and supply factors that drive economic growth is critical for region in 2020 (World Bank 2020a). -
Rebuilding the Public Sector for Economic Recovery and Resilience
REBUILDING THE PUBLIC SECTOR FOR ECONOMIC RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE Sara Hinkley, Ph.D. March 2021 Executive Summary As the country crests the most devastating wave yet of the COVID-19 pandemic, there is growing optimism that the new administration will act quickly to stem the economic crisis: both by deploying the federal government’s leadership to control the pandemic itself and by using the federal government’s fiscal capacity to mitigate the economic damage caused by the public health crisis. The Biden administration will need to turn around both of these failures quickly in order to prevent further catastrophe for millions of Americans and a sustained recession. But the disaster unfolding now is not just a result of policy failures over the past eleven months; it is the result of decades of disinvestment and austerity, accelerated during the Great Recession, which made us more vulnerable to this crisis. Local, state, and national austerity set the country up for a harsh, prolonged, and profoundly unequal recession. We face a pivotal moment now: we can repeat those mistakes, leaving us more vulnerable to future crises, or we can build back our public sector to make us more economically resilient. groundworkcollaborative.org REBUILDING THE PUBLIC SECTOR FOR ECONOMIC RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE | 1 It is certainly bad luck that the long-predicted1 economic downturn was sparked by a pandemic, but our failure to meet this crisis with an effective public response is the outcome of years of deliberate policy choices. The austerity implemented after the Great Recession decimated both our ability to weather an economic downturn and our ability to handle any crisis requiring a strong public response. -
Imperialism in the 21St Century
Imperialism in the 21st Century Doug Lorimer 2 Imperialism in the 21st Century Contents Imperialism in the 21st Century........................................................3 Rise of US imperialism.......................................................................................... 4 Decolonisation & US imperialism........................................................................ 7 Vietnam war........................................................................................................ 10 ‘Marshall Plan’ for Third World......................................................................... 11 Transnational corporations................................................................................ 13 Imperialism & state economic intervention....................................................... 15 The last empire.................................................................................................... 16 Growing social & political instability................................................................... 18 Imperialist Capitalism & Neo-Liberal Globalisation ...................21 Marx’s analysis of capitalism.............................................................................. 21 The imperialist epoch of capitalism.................................................................... 24 The global economy today................................................................................. 25 ‘Neo-liberalism’ & ‘globalisation’...................................................................... -
JP Morgan and the Money Trust
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS ECONOMIC EDUCATION The Panic of 1907: J.P. Morgan and the Money Trust Lesson Author Mary Fuchs Standards and Benchmarks (see page 47) Lesson Description The Panic of 1907 was a financial crisis set off by a series of bad banking decisions and a frenzy of withdrawals caused by public distrust of the banking system. J.P. Morgan, along with other wealthy Wall Street bankers, loaned their own funds to save the coun- try from a severe financial crisis. But what happens when a single man, or small group of men, have the power to control the finances of a country? In this lesson, students will learn about the Panic of 1907 and the measures Morgan used to finance and save the major banks and trust companies. Students will also practice close reading to analyze texts from the Pujo hearings, newspapers, and reactionary articles to develop an evidence- based argument about whether or not a money trust—a Morgan-led cartel—existed. Grade Level 10-12 Concepts Bank run Bank panic Cartel Central bank Liquidity Money trust Monopoly Sherman Antitrust Act Trust ©2015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Permission is granted to reprint or photocopy this lesson in its entirety for educational purposes, provided the user credits the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, www.stlouisfed.org/education. 1 Lesson Plan The Panic of 1907: J.P. Morgan and the Money Trust Time Required 100-120 minutes Compelling Question What did J.P. Morgan have to do with the founding of the Federal Reserve? Objectives Students will • define bank run, bank panic, monopoly, central bank, cartel, and liquidity; • explain the Panic of 1907 and the events leading up to the panic; • analyze the Sherman Antitrust Act; • explain how monopolies worked in the early 20th-century banking industry; • develop an evidence-based argument about whether or not a money trust—a Morgan-led cartel—existed • explain how J.P. -
ECONOMIC GROWTH and STRUCTURAL CHANGE in the LONG NINETEENTH CENTURY Robert E
1 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN THE LONG NINETEENTH CENTURY robert e. gallman INTRODUCTION This chapter is concerned with quantitative features of the development of the American economy in the period between the late eighteenth century and World War I – the long nineteenth century. A reasonable place to begin is with measurements of the size of the economy. Since a central feature of any economy is production, size is appropriately measured by aggregate output. Other indicators, such as population and geographic extent, are considered below. The conventional measures of aggregate output are the national product – that is, output produced by factors of production owned by Americans – and the domestic product – output produced by factors of production domiciled in the United States. The proper index to select depends upon whether one thinks of the United States as the sum of all Americans or as a geographic entity. We are interested in the history of the people of the United States, and therefore the national product is the more appro- priate concept. It underlies most of the measurements treated in this chapter; in practice the choice matters little, however, since in the years under examination the national product and the domestic product were virtually identical. A more important question is the extent to which these conventional measures properly describe levels of output and changes in output over time, a question set aside for the moment but treated later in this essay. Cambridge Histories Online © Cambridge University Press, 2008 2 Robert E. Gallman SIZE AND GROWTH OF THE AMERICAN ECONOMY Size The American gross national product probably ran around $144 million just before the Revolution (Table 1.3).