THE CROSS-BORDER IMPACT OF VIOLENT EVENTS Mohamad Al-Ississ Harvard University April 2010 Abstract This paper argues that violent events have two economic effects: a direct loss from the destruction of physical and human capital, and a reallocation of financial and economic resources. It is the first to document the positive cross- border impact that follows violent events as a result of this reallocation. Thus, it reconciles the two existing perspectives in the literature on whether violence has a small or large economic effect. Our results show that, in globally integrated markets, the substitution of financial and economic activities away from afflicted countries magnifies their losses. Additionally, the paper evaluates the impact of certain geographic, political and financial country characteristics on the reallocation of capital. JEL codes: F20, F41, F43, G11, G14, G15, F36 Harvard Kennedy School of Government, 79 John F. Kennedy Street, Cambridge, MA 02138.
[email protected]. All errors and opinions expressed herein are my own. This paper is copyrighted by the author. For permission to reproduce or to request a copy, contact the author The Cross-Border Impact of Violent Events 1 Introduction This paper investigates the cross-border financial impact of violence. It examines the global reallocation of capital in the wake of violent events, and analyzes its determinants. Consequently, this paper helps reconcile the divergent arguments in the existing discourse on the magnitude of the economic impact of violent events. It does so by highlighting the role played by interconnected financial and economic global markets. There is a dichotomy in the literature on the magnitude of the economic impact of terrorism and violence.