Assessing for the Volatility of the Saudi, Dubai and Kuwait Stock Markets: TIME SERIES ANALYSIS (2005-2016)
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Assessing for the volatility of the Saudi, Dubai and Kuwait stock markets: TIME SERIES ANALYSIS (2005-2016) Yazeed Abdulaziz I Bin Ateeq This thesis is submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the Manchester Metropolitan University for the award of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics Manchester Metropolitan University 2018 Dedication I dedicate this thesis to my dad and mum Mr. Abdulaziz Bin Ateeq & Mrs Al Jawhara Bin Dayel My wife Afnan My Greatest boys Muhanad & Abdulaziz My lovely sisters Salwa & Hissa Table of Contents ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS…………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………. VII DECLARATION …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… VIII List of Acronyms ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….IX ABSTRACT………………………….…………………………………………………………………………………………….… X CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Background of research .................................................................................................................... 1 1.2. Justification of research .................................................................................................................... 4 1.3. The motivation of the study .............................................................................................................. 7 1.4. Research Questions and Objectives: ................................................................................................. 8 1.5. Structure of the Research ................................................................................................................. 8 CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................................................................ 12 2.1. Introduction: .................................................................................................................................. 12 2.2. Overview of the Efficient Market Hypotheses (EMH) ...................................................................... 13 2.3. The Random Walk and the Weak Form Efficacy (WFE) .................................................................... 20 2.4. The non-randomness and critical Review ........................................................................................ 25 2.5. The Relative Weak Form Efficiency ................................................................................................. 30 2.6. Factors & Events affecting the weak form efficiency ....................................................................... 35 2.6.1. Regulatory Framework: ......................................................................................................................... 36 2.6.2. Foreign Investors in Domestic Stock Markets ....................................................................................... 37 2.6.3. Financial Crisis Events ........................................................................................................................... 38 2.6.4. Technological Advances and Algorithm Trading ................................................................................... 41 CHAPTER 3. OVERVEIW OF SAUDI, DUBAI AND KUWAIT ECONOMICES AND FINANCAL SYSTEMS AND STOCK MARKETS ................................................................................................................................................................... 44 3.1. Introduction: .................................................................................................................................. 44 3.2. Overview of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries: ............................................................ 45 3.3. Economic and development plans of the kingdom of Saudi Arabia ................................................. 48 3.3.1. Overview of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: ........................................................................................... 48 3.3.2. Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul): .......................................................................................................... 49 3.4. Economy and stock market of The United Arab Emirates (UAE) ...................................................... 55 3.4.1. Overview of the United Arab Emirates (UAE): ...................................................................................... 55 3.4.2. Overview UAE stock market .................................................................................................................. 56 I 3.5. Overview of Kuwait ........................................................................................................................ 60 3.5.1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 60 3.5.2. Kuwait stock market overview .............................................................................................................. 61 3.6. AN ANALYSIS OF CAPITAL MARKET REGULATION IN SAUDI ARABIA ................................................ 64 3.6.1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 64 3.6.2. General Index ........................................................................................................................................ 64 3.6.3. Sector and listed companies in the Saudi Stock Market ....................................................................... 67 3.6.4. Number of Shares Traded ..................................................................................................................... 70 3.6.5. Value of Shares Traded ......................................................................................................................... 72 3.6.6. Market Value of Shares ......................................................................................................................... 74 CHAPTER 4. METHODOLOGY OF THE RESEARCH ..................................................................................................... 77 4.1. Introduction: .................................................................................................................................. 77 4.2. Philosophical Assumptions that Underpin Social Science Research ................................................. 77 4.3. Research considerations that underpin the Current Thesis ............................................................. 81 4.4. Statistical Definition of the Efficient Market Hypothesis and the Random Walk .............................. 84 4.5. Research Methods .......................................................................................................................... 86 4.5.1. Introduction: ......................................................................................................................................... 86 4.5.2. Unit root test: ........................................................................................................................................ 86 4.5.3. An Autoregressive (AR) ......................................................................................................................... 91 4.5.4. Moving Average (MA) Model (Residuals) .............................................................................................. 91 4.5.5. The ARIMA Model ................................................................................................................................. 92 4.6. ARMA and the Box-Jenkins (BJ) Methodology ................................................................................. 94 4.6.1. Find Order of (p, q): Identify Model ...................................................................................................... 95 4.6.2. ACF or autocorrelation function, PACF or partial autocorrelation function ......................................... 95 4.6.3. Akaike and Baysin information criteria ................................................................................................ 96 4.6.4. ARIMA Model: Estimation ..................................................................................................................... 96 4.6.5. ARMA Model: Testing ........................................................................................................................... 97 4.6.6. ARMA Model: Prediction ....................................................................................................................... 97 4.7. Error Metrics applied: ..................................................................................................................... 98 4.7.1. Overview: .............................................................................................................................................. 98 4.7.2. Performance Evaluation Metric: ........................................................................................................... 99 4.8. Conclusion: ................................................................................................................................... 101 CHAPTER 5. VARIABLES AND DATA UNDER STUDY ................................................................................................ 102 5.1. Variables Data and Sources ..........................................................................................................