Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Project
Richard Muller Robert Rohde Judith Curry Donald Groom Bob Jacobsen Saul Perlmu er Arthur Rosenfeld Charlo e Wickham Jonathan Wurtele
Elizabeth Muller
Novim, U. Calif. Berkeley, Lawrence Berkeley Lab, Georgia Tech, Oregon State
preprints and merged data now online at www.BerkeleyEarth.org Wall St. Journal Op-Ed
The Case Against Global-Warming Skep cism There were good reasons for doubt, un l now. Are you a global warming skep c? There are plenty of good reasons why you might be….
As submi ed: Cooling the Warming Debate Are you a global warming skep c? There are plenty of good reasons why you might be….
I strongly dislike the tle they used. I was not no fied or warned.
backwards presenta on
• results first (mo va on)
• data selec on bias, homogeniza on bias, sta on quality, urban heat island
• Berkeley Earth The Movie
• Robert Rohde: data merging, temperature reconstruc on, spa al and sta s cal uncertain es Annual Land-Surface Average Temperature
12-month moving average of surface temperature over land Anomalies relative to the Jan 1950 - Dec 1979 mean these are mostly 1 Gray band indicates 95% statistical / spatial uncertainty interval AMO oscilla ons
0.5
0
-0.5
-1 NASA GISS Temperature Anomaly ( °C) NOAA -1.5 HadCRU Berkeley
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 RMS = 0.26 RMS = 0.75
RMS = 1.14 RMS = 1.25 cross-correla ons
NOAA (a) Tavg x AMO (b) Tavg x ENSO 0.6 GISS HadCRU Berkeley Earth 0.4
0.2
0 Correlation
−0. 2
−0. 4
(c) Tavg x PDO (d) Tavg x NAO 0.6
0.4
0.2
0 Correlation
−0. 2
−0. 4
−0. 6 −20 −10 0 10 −10 0 10 20 Lag (years) Lag (years) correla on map
AMO ENSO Berkeley Earth Berkeley Earth AMO 11-yr moving average, from Petr Chylek
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0 1790 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 -0.2
-0.4
-0.6 AMO_11Y_Chylek -0.8
-1
24 yr
72 yr
note: 24 is 3rd harmonic of 72 also note: 72 is 3rd subharmonic of 24 Berkeley Earth
IPCC 1995: temperature rise underway by late1700s
Berkeley Earth: temperature rise underway by early 1800s Annual Land-Surface Average Temperature
12-month moving average of surface temperature over land Anomalies relative to the Jan 1950 - Dec 1979 mean 1 Gray band indicates 95% statistical / spatial uncertainty interval
0.5
0
-0.5
-1 NASA GISS Temperature Anomaly ( °C) NOAA HadCRU -1.5 coldest year in the record 6 years before Tambora Berkeley
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Has global warming stopped? Cooling the Warming Debate
Richard A Muller
Are you a global warming skeptic? If not, perhaps you should be. Let me explain why.
There are 757 stations in the United States that recorded net cooling over the past century,100-year cooling & warming sites many concentrated in the southeast – where some people attributed tornadoes and hurricanes to warming.
Stations that cooled (o), or warmed (+) over the past century
Moreover, the temperature station quality is awful. The most important stations in the United States are in the US Historical Climatology Network. A careful survey of these by a team led by Anthony Watts showed that 70% of these stations have such poor siting that by US government estimates they have temperature uncertainties of 2-5ºC (3.6-9ºF) or greater. How much worse are thermometers in the developing world? Out of these poor stations, the IPCC says it detects a 0.64ºC temperature rise in the past 50 years, “most” of which, they say, is due to humans. Yet the station uncertainties are 3 to 7 times larger than this claimed warming.
We know that cities show anomalous warming, caused by building materials (asphalt absorbs more sunlight than do trees) and energy use. Tokyo rose 2ºC in the last 50 years. Could that rise, and the rise in other urban areas, have been unreasonably included in the sta on temperature changes Japanese Airports “cooling” Sta on selec on bias
GHCN monthly
37,633 out of 39,028 sta ons used (96%) most of the unused were < 6 months c.f. GHCN-M: 7,280 sta ons (19%)
Merged data now online at www.BerkeleyEarth.org Sta on Quality
ranks 1 & 2 (< 1oC) rank 3 (1oC) ranks 4 & 5 (> 2o – 5o C) US reconstructed temperature by quality (1,2,3) and (4,5)
both plo ed difference Temperature change rates by quality Urban and Rural sites classified using MODIS satellite map
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Longitude Urban Heat Island Influence Berkeley Earth: The Movie
to watch it go to: h p://www.berkeleyearth.org/movies.php logo
4 preprints and merged data now online at: www.BerkeleyEarth.org