Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Project Richard Muller Robert Rohde Judith Curry Donald Groom Bob Jacobsen Saul PerlmuAer Arthur Rosenfeld CharloAe Wickham Jonathan Wurtele Elizabeth Muller Novim, U. Calif. Berkeley, Lawrence Berkeley Lab, Georgia Tech, Oregon State preprints and merged data now online at www.BerkeleyEarth.org Wall St. Journal Op-Ed The Case Against Global-Warming SkepOcism There were good reasons for doubt, un2l now. Are you a global warming skepOc? There are plenty of good reasons why you might be…. As submi8ed: Cooling the Warming Debate Are you a global warming skepOc? There are plenty of good reasons why you might be…. I strongly dislike the 2tle they used. I was not no2fied or warned. backwards presentaon • results first (moOvaon) • data selecOon bias, homogenizaon bias, staon quality, urban heat island • Berkeley Earth The Movie • Robert Rohde: data merging, temperature reconstrucOon, spaal and stasOcal uncertainOes Annual Land-Surface Average Temperature 12-month moving average of surface temperature over land Anomalies relative to the Jan 1950 - Dec 1979 mean these are mostly 1 Gray band indicates 95% statistical / spatial uncertainty interval AMO oscillaons 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 NASA GISS Temperature Anomaly ( °C) NOAA -1.5 HadCRU Berkeley 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 RMS = 0.26 RMS = 0.75 RMS = 1.14 RMS = 1.25 cross-correlaons NOAA (a) Tavg x AMO (b) Tavg x ENSO 0.6 GISS HadCRU Berkeley Earth 0.4 0.2 0 Correlation −0. 2 −0. 4 (c) Tavg x PDO (d) Tavg x NAO 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Correlation −0. 2 −0. 4 −0. 6 −20 −10 0 10 −10 0 10 20 Lag (years) Lag (years) correlaon map AMO ENSO Berkeley Earth Berkeley Earth AMO 11-yr moving average, from Petr Chylek 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1790 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 AMO_11Y_Chylek -0.8 -1 24 yr 72 yr note: 24 is 3rd harmonic of 72 also note: 72 is 3rd subharmonic of 24 Berkeley Earth IPCC 1995: temperature rise underway by late1700s Berkeley Earth: temperature rise underway by early 1800s Annual Land-Surface Average Temperature 12-month moving average of surface temperature over land Anomalies relative to the Jan 1950 - Dec 1979 mean 1 Gray band indicates 95% statistical / spatial uncertainty interval 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 NASA GISS Temperature Anomaly ( °C) NOAA HadCRU -1.5 coldest year in the record 6 years before Tambora Berkeley 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Has global warming stopped? Cooling the Warming Debate Richard A Muller Are you a global warming skeptic? If not, perhaps you should be. Let me explain why. There are 757 stations in the United States that recorded net cooling over the past century,100-year cooling & warming sites many concentrated in the southeast – where some people attributed tornadoes and hurricanes to warming. Stations that cooled (o), or warmed (+) over the past century Moreover, the temperature station quality is awful. The most important stations in the United States are in the US Historical Climatology Network. A careful survey of these by a team led by Anthony Watts showed that 70% of these stations have such poor siting that by US government estimates they have temperature uncertainties of 2-5ºC (3.6-9ºF) or greater. How much worse are thermometers in the developing world? Out of these poor stations, the IPCC says it detects a 0.64ºC temperature rise in the past 50 years, “most” of which, they say, is due to humans. Yet the station uncertainties are 3 to 7 times larger than this claimed warming. We know that cities show anomalous warming, caused by building materials (asphalt absorbs more sunlight than do trees) and energy use. Tokyo rose 2ºC in the last 50 years. Could that rise, and the rise in other urban areas, have been unreasonably included in the staon temperature changes Japanese Airports “cooling” Staon selecOon bias GHCN monthly 37,633 out of 39,028 staons used (96%) most of the unused were < 6 months c.f. GHCN-M: 7,280 staons (19%) Merged data now online at www.BerkeleyEarth.org Staon Quality ranks 1 & 2 (< 1oC) rank 3 (1oC) ranks 4 & 5 (> 2o – 5o C) US reconstructed temperature by quality (1,2,3) and (4,5) both ploAed difference Temperature change rates by quality Urban and Rural sites classified using MODIS satellite map ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●●● ● ● ●● ●●●● ●● ● ●●●●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ●●●●● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ●●● ●●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●●●●● ●● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●●●● ● ● ● ●●● ●● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●●●●● ● ● ●●●●●●●●● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●●●●●● ●●● ●●●● ●●● ●● ● ● ●●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●●● ●●●●●●●●●●●● ● ●●● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 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