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CHINA FORECAST GDP and INFLATION GDP & Inflation Trends, % % Growth % Inflation 14 14 MERCER GLOBAL HR CONFERENCES Shanghai HR Conference CHINA AND GBA TALENT TRENDS 18 SEPTEMBER Elley Cao, Senior Principal, China Career Product Leader, Mercer Jackson Kam, Senior Principal, Talent Strategy Practice Leader, AMEA, Mercer © MERCER 2019 1 China Overview © MERCER 2019 2 CHINA OVERVIEW GDP GROWTH 2016 – 2 0 2 0 ( I M F ) 6.7 6.6 GROWTH OF RESIDENTIAL INCOME 6.3 6.1 6.8 AND SPENDING 2018 ( y . o . y .%) 10.7 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 7.6 8.8 6.8 per-capita disposable income per-capita spending T H E U S – C H I N A T R A D E W A R CHINA Urban Rural GREATER BAY AREA (GBA) © MERCER 2019 3 GDP FORECAST BY 2030 Top 10 Countries by Nominal GDP Using PPP Exchange Rates by the Year 2030 China 64.2 India 46.3 USA 31.0 Indonesia 10.1 Turkey 9.1 Egypt 8.2 Russia 7.9 Japan 7.2 Germany 6.9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Source: Standard Chartered, Jan 2019 © MERCER 2019 Note: Estimates are in trillions of international dollars, using purchasing power parity measures 4 THE BIG PICTURE: CHINA FORECAST GDP AND INFLATION GDP & Inflation Trends, % % growth % inflation 14 14 12.3 12 12 11.3 10.6 9.8 10 10 8.6 7.9 7.9 8 8 6.4 6 6 5.1 4 4 2 2 0 0 1980-85 1985-90 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 Real growth Inflation (CPI) © MERCER 2019 Source: IMA Asia, China Forecast Update, Q2 2019 5 THE BIG PICTURE: CHINA FORECAST POPULATION China: Population Trends mn persons pa % growth pa 25 2.5 20 2 15 1.5 10 1 5 0.5 0 0 1980-85 1985-90 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 Increase persons Population growth rate © MERCER 2019 Source: IMA Asia, China Forecast Update, Q2 2019 6 CHINA HAS BEEN REDUCING ITS RELATIVE EXPOSURE TO THE WORLD WHILE THE WORLD HAS BEEN INCREASING ITS EXPOSURE TO CHINA China-World Exposure Index (trade, technology, and capital) 1.2 1.1 Weighted average 0.9 exposure of 7 large 0.8 1 0.7 0.7 economies = 1.0 0.6 1 China, France, Germany, India, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States 0.4 2000 2007 2012 2017 World exposure to China China exposure to the world © MERCER 2019 Source: China and the World, McKinsey Global Institute, Jul 2019 7 The US – China Trade War © MERCER 2019 8 U S – CHINA TRADE WAR Escalations Tariff pre-Sept 1 Tariff after Dec 15 1st - $34bn 25% 30% (Oct 15) 2nd - $16bn 25% 30% (Oct 15) 3rd - $200bn 25% 30% (Oct 15) 4th - $300bn 0% 15% © MERCER 2019 Source: IMA Asia, China Forecast Update, Q3 2019 9 Copyright © 2019 Mercer U S D T O C N Y • USD/CNY breaks 7 on Aug 5, 2019 • UBS forecast the US-yuan to move to 7.2 at end 2019 and 7.3 in 2020 in the case of trade war escalation © MERCER 2019 10 CHINA’S PROMINENCE IN OVERALL COMPANY STRATEGY China’s Prominence in Overall Company Strategy 100% 2% 1% 6% 4% 5% 10% 9% 90% 12% 13% 80% 70% 60% Not a priority 78% 71% 50% 67% 74% One of many non-key priorities 68% Among top 5 priorities 40% Top priority 30% 20% 10% 19% 16% 17% 14% 14% 0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 © MERCER 2019 Member Survey, US-China Business Council, August 2019 11 HAS YOUR COMPANY MOVED OR DOES IT PLAN TO MOVE ANY OPERATIONS OUT O F CHINA? Has your company moved or does it plan to move any operations out of China? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 88% 87% 92% 92% 90% No 50% Yes, to another location 40% Yes, to the United States 30% 20% 10% 7% 6% 4% 6% 10% 5% 2% 4% 4% 3% 0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 © MERCER 2019 Member Survey, US-China Business Council, August 2019 12 GLOBAL LOGISTICS RANKING Global logistics ranking for China, Thailand and Vietnam 3.84 3.81 3.8 3.75 3.67 3.65 3.59 3.54 3.47 3.41 3.46 3.45 3.29 3.4 3.3 3.16 3.14 3.14 3.01 2.95 2.8 Customs Infrastructure International shipments Quality and competence Tracking and tracing Timeliness China Thailand Vietnam © MERCER 2019 Source: The World Bank (2018) 13 WHAT DID GM GET WRONG? “General Motors, which was once the Giant of Detroit, is now one of the smallest auto manufacturers there. They moved major plants to China, BEFORE I CAME INTO OFFICE. This was done despite the saving help given them by the USA. Now they should start moving back to America again.” Trump tweet, 30 Aug 2019 Just the facts… • GM is shutting 4 plants, leaving 29 in the US. It has 27 in China. • GM China serves only China (apart from 30,000 Buick Envisions sent to the US). • GM China has produced $16bn in profits for GM since 2010. • GM never “moved” US production in China. It has downsized in North America due to automation and lost market share. © MERCER 2019 Source: IMA Asia, China Forecast Update, Q3 2019 14 Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) and Shenzhen © MERCER 2019 15 BASIC INFORMATION ABOUT GBA Cities and General Information • GBA outline development plan was issued on February 18 2019 • 9+2 Cities: HK + Macao, plus 9 cities in ZHAOQING Guangdong province GUANGZHOU HUIZHOU • GDP: 1.64 trillion USD FOSHAN DONGGUAN • Area: 56,000km2 SHENZHEN • Population: 71.12 millions ZHONGSHAN MACAO JIANGMEN ZHUHAI HONG KONG • Shenzhen: to build a Demonstration Pilot Zone for Greater Bay Area Socialism with Chinese Characteristics (guideline issued on August 18, 2019) © MERCER 2019 Source: Xinhua, People Daily 16 BASIC INFORMATION ABOUT GBA GDP Growth and Population Economy Growth Labor Force 2014 – 2018 GDP (GBA) Population in each city in GBA 1,490 109,070.3 Billion 101,843.0 2018 Resident population (10k) RMB 93,526.1 2016 Employed population (10k) 86,720.7 1,077 81,720.8 926 835 834 766 748 654 476 439 456 412 379 326 286 244 220 213 177 110 65 39 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 © MERCER 2019 17 OVERALL GOAL AND TIMELINE GBA Goal of Five Strategic Orientations Shenzhen Pilot Zone • Building a dynamic world- class city group • Better develop the GBA and enrich the practice • Becoming a global international technology and of the "one country, two systems" principle innovation hub • By 2025, become one of the leading cities in the • Providing support for the implementation of the world in terms of economic strength and quality “Belt and Road” initiative of development • Deepening cooperation between mainland China • By 2035, become a national model of high- and Hong Kong and Macao in the Qianhai, quality development, as well as a hub of Nansha and Hengqin development zones innovation, entrepreneurship and creativity with international influence. • Building a quality living environment that is suitable for residents as well as business and • By mid-21st century, become one of the top tourism. cosmopolis in the world and a global pacesetter with outstanding competitiveness, innovative capacity and influence © MERCER 2019 18 WORLD WIDE BAY AREAS General Comparison 56,000 Area (km2) Population (Million) 36,800 GDP (Billion USD) 21,500 18,000 17,200 16,400 17,700 8,800 7.7 23.7 71.0 43.8 SF Bay NY Bay GBA Tokyo Bay Container Airport Passenger Area Resident GDP Per capita GDP Bay Area Throughput Throughput (10 thousand km²) population (10k) (Trillion USD) (Trillion USD) (10k Container) (Billion) GBA 5.60 7,112 1.64 2.33 6,648 2.17 Tokyo Bay 1.35 4,383 1.77 4.24 776 1.23 New York Bay 2.15 2,370 1.72 8.21 625 1.32 SF Bay 1.80 770 0.88 10.53 242 0.81 © MERCER 2019 19 GBA ADVANTAGES GDP Growth and Population Geographic Policy Transportation • 3+2 Economic circles and areas • 2017 GBA appeared in the • Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong • Close to the world top shipping government working report high speed railway lane • 2018 GBA construction leading • Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge group hold the 1st time conference • The intersection of Silk Road Belt • Guangzhou-Zhuhai-Macao high and Maritime Silk Road • 2019 the GBA development speed railway planning outline was published © MERCER 2019 20 BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES ARISING FROM THE DEVELOPMENT OF GBA A SINGLE BIGGER MARKET CROSS-BORDER COLLABORATION • More cost-effective to target GBA as a single market • Clear market positioning for each city in GBA instead of individual cities encourages collaboration rather than competition • E.g. set up insurance customer service center to serve • E.g. launch liner routes that passes through ports GBA clients in premium payment, etc. within GBA, hence boosting the cruise economy COST OPTIMIZATION POTENTIAL GATEWAY TO THE WORLD • Enhanced transportation network makes relocating to • Leverage HK/MC and their global trade ties for China cities with lower cost of business viable to open up its economy and go international • E.g. move logistics delivery hub from HK to western • E.g. leverage MC’s ties to develop FS platform for cities where rent is significantly lower China and Portuguese-speaking countries ACCESS TO SPECIALISED TALENT POOL NEW PLATFORMS FOR COOPERATION • Enhanced transportation network and lowered criteria • 3 pilot districts within GBA will be developed as for GD/HK/MC residents to work within GBA allows for demonstrative zone for cooperation free flow of talent • E.g.
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