Tsunamigenic Earthquakes
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A Risk-Targeted Regional Earthquake Model for South-East Asia
Proceedings of the Tenth Pacific Conference on Earthquake Engineering Building an Earthquake-Resilient Pacific 6-8 November 2015, Sydney, Australia A risk-targeted Regional Earthquake Model for South-East Asia J. Woessner Risk Management Solutions Inc., Zurich, Switzerland. M. Nyst, & E. Seyhan Risk Management Solutions Inc., Newark, California, USA . ABSTRACT: The last decade has shown the social and economic vulnerability of countries in South-East Asia to earthquake hazard and risk. While many disaster mitigation programs to improve societal earthquake resilience are under way focusing on saving lives and livelihoods, the risk management sector is challenged to model economic consequences. We present the hazard component suitable for a South-East Asia earthquake risk model covering Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Indochine countries. The consistent regional model builds upon refined modelling approaches for 1) background seismicity, i.e. earthquakes not occurring on mapped fault structures, 2) seismic activity from geologic and geodetic data on crustal faults and 3) along the interface of subduction zones. We elaborate on building a self-consistent rate model for crustal fault systems (e.g. Sumatra fault zone, Philippine fault zone) as well as the subduction zone, showcase its characteristics and combine this with an up-to-date ground motion model. We aim to present insights on the impact of the different hazard components on the final risk model. 1 INTRODUCTION Over the past decades, the societies of many countries in Southeast Asia including mainland and mari- time countries have suffered several severe earthquake catastrophes in terms of human casualties, loss of livelihoods and economic losses. The 2004 M9.0 Andaman-Sumatra Earthquake and the associated tsunami caused more than 225,000 fatalities, generating significant attention internationally due to the scale of its impact across the Indian Ocean. -
Waves of Destruction in the East Indies: the Wichmann Catalogue of Earthquakes and Tsunami in the Indonesian Region from 1538 to 1877
Downloaded from http://sp.lyellcollection.org/ by guest on May 24, 2016 Waves of destruction in the East Indies: the Wichmann catalogue of earthquakes and tsunami in the Indonesian region from 1538 to 1877 RON HARRIS1* & JONATHAN MAJOR1,2 1Department of Geological Sciences, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT 84602–4606, USA 2Present address: Bureau of Economic Geology, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78758, USA *Corresponding author (e-mail: [email protected]) Abstract: The two volumes of Arthur Wichmann’s Die Erdbeben Des Indischen Archipels [The Earthquakes of the Indian Archipelago] (1918 and 1922) document 61 regional earthquakes and 36 tsunamis between 1538 and 1877 in the Indonesian region. The largest and best documented are the events of 1770 and 1859 in the Molucca Sea region, of 1629, 1774 and 1852 in the Banda Sea region, the 1820 event in Makassar, the 1857 event in Dili, Timor, the 1815 event in Bali and Lom- bok, the events of 1699, 1771, 1780, 1815, 1848 and 1852 in Java, and the events of 1797, 1818, 1833 and 1861 in Sumatra. Most of these events caused damage over a broad region, and are asso- ciated with years of temporal and spatial clustering of earthquakes. The earthquakes left many cit- ies in ‘rubble heaps’. Some events spawned tsunamis with run-up heights .15 m that swept many coastal villages away. 2004 marked the recurrence of some of these events in western Indonesia. However, there has not been a major shallow earthquake (M ≥ 8) in Java and eastern Indonesia for the past 160 years. -
Tsunami Inundation Modeling for Western Sumatra
Tsunami inundation modeling for western Sumatra Jose´ C. Borrero*†‡, Kerry Sieh§, Mohamed Chlieh§, and Costas E. Synolakis*¶ *Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089-2531; †ASR Limited, Marine Consulting and Research, 1 Wainui Road, Raglan, New Zealand; §Tectonics Observatory 100-23, Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125; and ¶Laboratory of Natural Hazards and Coastal Engineering, Technical University of Crete, 73100 Chanea, Greece Edited by Barbara A. Romanowicz, University of California, Berkeley, CA, and approved October 24, 2006 (received for review May 17, 2006) A long section of the Sunda megathrust south of the great tsunami- settlements. We then investigate tsunamis produced by four genic earthquakes of 2004 and 2005 is well advanced in its seismic plausible future ruptures of the Mentawai section of the mega- cycle and a plausible candidate for rupture in the next few decades. thrust. Each of these scenarios spans the entire 750-km length of Our computations of tsunami propagation and inundation yield the currently locked patch south of the Equator, as deduced by model flow depths and inundations consistent with sparse historical Global Positioning System measurements, observations of sub- accounts for the last great earthquakes there, in 1797 and 1833. siding corals on the islands and patterns of background seismicity Numerical model results from plausible future ruptures produce flow (Fig. 1) (5, 9). Thus, they represent what we consider to be the depths of several meters and inundation up to several kilometers longest plausible future ruptures. All of these scenarios are inland near the most populous coastal cities. -
Tectonic Setting Seismic Hazard Epicentral Region Depth Profile
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY MAP XXX U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY Prepared in cooperation with the Global Seismographic Network e g M6.7 Sumbawa, Indoned sia, Earthquake of 8 November 2009 i R u a l a P - Tectonic Setting u Epicentral Region V I E T N A M P h i l i p p i n e h 100° 110° F a u l t 120° 130° s 110° 112° 114° 116° 118° 120° 122° 124° 126° 128° C A M B O D I A u S u m a t r a y P Palu K Balikpapan H Kalimantan 2000 1963 1923 P H I L I P P I N E S I L P h i l i p p i n e I A N D A M A N P Barat Kalimantan Timur Sumbawa Region P B a s i n Sulawesi Tengah Gulf I 1998 S E A N 10° 10° of S O U T H E 08 November 2009 8:41:44 UTC Thailand T 2° 2° C H I N A R Palangkaraya 1965 N E Kalimantan Tengah A N W H 1919 S E A A G C 8.315° S., 118.697° E. L U A O H P R Kalimantan Depth 18.3 km T Selatan M19w38 = 6.7 (1U94S8GS) SUNDA PLATE Sulawesi Bandjermasin Maluku Selatan B R U N E I 15 km (10 miles) 1N9N50W of Raba, Sumbawa, Indonesia M 310 km (1A9m0b moniles) ENE of Mataram, Lombok, Indonesia A C e l e b e s L Kendari 2001 A B a s i n 330 km (205 miles) W of Ende, Flores, Indonesia Y S u m a t r a F a u l t 4° 4° S A I N D O N E S I A 2004 I 1335 km (830 miles) E of JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia I S A Y A L A M S I N G A P O R E S u 0° m Borneo 0° Makassar 2006 1914 a MOLUCCA 2005 tr a SEA Enggano I N D O N E S IPLATEA BIRD'S HEAD A' 1797 PLATE 6° 6° 1950 1927 AUSTRALIA J a v a 1969 PLATE J A VA S E A 1998 Semarang 1934 1833 1996 1964 1995 BANDA SEA MAOKE Jawa 1966 Greater Sunda Islands B A N D A S E A 1990 1982 I PLATE PLATE -
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Rhiana Elizabeth Henry Tectonic History Hildebrand Project 1A December 9th, 2016 North America subducted under Rubia Are there modern analogs for Hildebrand’s model of North America subducting under Rubia? In the Geological Society of America Special Papers “Did Westward Subduction Cause Cretaceous–Tertiary Orogeny in the North American Cordillera?” and “Mesozoic Assembly of the North American Cordillera” by Robert S. Hildebrand, the author argues that the North American continent experienced westward subduction under what he calls a “ribbon continent” known as Rubia around ~124Ma. This ribbon continent is composed of multiple terranes both known to be exotic to North America, and terranes that were previously thought to be part of North America. As the seaway between Rubia and North America closed, Hildebrand postulates that North America was dragged underneath with the oceanic crust. This continental material combined with the fluids from the margin caused great amounts of magmatism in the North American Cordillera. Eventually the continental crust broke due to upward buoyancy. This caused slab failure around 75-60 Ma, followed by a reversal of subduction polarity around 53 Ma, with eastward subduction through the mid- Tertiary (Fig. 1). As a way of checking to see if this hypothesis is plausible, I investigated modern geologic settings that are undergoing similar tectonic events. Although these regions are Figure 1: Hildebrand’s model of subduction of not perfect analogies, they share enough North America and Rubia. From Hildebrand, 2009. 1 Rhiana Elizabeth Henry Tectonic History Hildebrand Project 1A December 9th, 2016 tectonic features that Hildebrand’s model appears somewhat less outlandish. -
Philippine Island Arc System Tectonic Features Inferred from Magnetic Data Analysis
Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci., Vol. 26, No. 6, 679-686, December 2015 doi: 10.3319/TAO.2015.05.11.04(TC) Philippine Island Arc System Tectonic Features Inferred from Magnetic Data Analysis Wen-Bin Doo1, *, Shu-Kun Hsu1, 2, and Leo Armada 2 1 Center for Environmental Studies, National Central University, Taoyuan City, Taiwan, R.O.C. 2 Department of Earth Sciences, National Central University, Taoyuan City, Taiwan, R.O.C. Received 18 February 2013, revised 22 November 2013, accepted 11 May 2015 ABSTRACT Running along the middle of the Philippine archipelago from south to north, the Philippine fault zone is one of the world’s major strike-slip faults. Intense volcanism in the archipelago is attributed to the ongoing subduction along the trench systems surrounding it. This study interprets the magnetic data covering the Philippine fault zone and the bounding archi- pelago subduction systems to understand the structural characteristics of the study area. Magnetic data analysis suggests that the Philippine fault is roughly distributed along the boundary of high/low magnetization and separates the different amplitude features of the first order analytic signal. Visayas province is a specific area bounded by the other parts of the Philippine ar- chipelago. Further differentiating the tectonic units, the proto-Southeast Bohol Trench should be the main tectonic boundary between Visayas and Mindanao. A clear NE - SW boundary separates Luzon from Visayas as shown by the variant depths to the top of the magnetic basement. This boundary could suggest the different tectonic characteristics of the two regions. Key words: Philippine fault, Philippine archipelago, Magnetic data, Tectonic Citation: Doo, W. -
Java and Sumatra Segments of the Sunda Trench: Geomorphology and Geophysical Settings Analysed and Visualized by GMT Polina Lemenkova
Java and Sumatra Segments of the Sunda Trench: Geomorphology and Geophysical Settings Analysed and Visualized by GMT Polina Lemenkova To cite this version: Polina Lemenkova. Java and Sumatra Segments of the Sunda Trench: Geomorphology and Geophys- ical Settings Analysed and Visualized by GMT. Glasnik Srpskog Geografskog Drustva, 2021, 100 (2), pp.1-23. 10.2298/GSGD2002001L. hal-03093633 HAL Id: hal-03093633 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03093633 Submitted on 4 Jan 2021 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution| 4.0 International License ГЛАСНИК Српског географског друштва 100(2) 1 – 23 BULLETIN OF THE SERBIAN GEOGRAPHICAL SOCIETY 2020 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------------------------- Original scientific paper UDC 551.4(267) https://doi.org/10.2298/GSGD2002001L Received: October 07, 2020 Corrected: November 27, 2020 Accepted: December 09, 2020 Polina Lemenkova1* * Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, Department of Natural Disasters, Anthropogenic Hazards and Seismicity of the Earth, Laboratory of Regional Geophysics and Natural Disasters, Moscow, Russian Federation JAVA AND SUMATRA SEGMENTS OF THE SUNDA TRENCH: GEOMORPHOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICAL SETTINGS ANALYSED AND VISUALIZED BY GMT Abstract: The paper discusses the geomorphology of the Sunda Trench, an oceanic trench located in the eastern Indian Ocean along the Sumatra and Java Islands of the Indonesian archipelago. -
Using a Genetic Algorithm to Estimate the Details of Earthquake Slip Distributions from Point Surface Displacements
Edinburgh Research Explorer Using a genetic algorithm to estimate the details of earthquake slip distributions from point surface displacements Citation for published version: Lindsay, A, McCloskey, J & Bhloscaidh, MN 2016, 'Using a genetic algorithm to estimate the details of earthquake slip distributions from point surface displacements', Journal of Geophysical Research. Solid Earth, vol. 121, no. 3, pp. 1796-1820. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JB012181 Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.1002/2015JB012181 Link: Link to publication record in Edinburgh Research Explorer Document Version: Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Published In: Journal of Geophysical Research. Solid Earth General rights Copyright for the publications made accessible via the Edinburgh Research Explorer is retained by the author(s) and / or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing these publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. Take down policy The University of Edinburgh has made every reasonable effort to ensure that Edinburgh Research Explorer content complies with UK legislation. If you believe that the public display of this file breaches copyright please contact [email protected] providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Download date: 06. Oct. 2021 PUBLICATIONS Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth RESEARCH ARTICLE Using a genetic algorithm to estimate the details 10.1002/2015JB012181 of earthquake slip distributions -
Regional Seismic Hazard Posed by the Mentawai Segment of the Sumatran Megathrust by Kusnowidjaja Megawati and Tso-Chien Pan
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 99, No. 2A, pp. 566–584, April 2009, doi: 10.1785/0120080109 Regional Seismic Hazard Posed by the Mentawai Segment of the Sumatran Megathrust by Kusnowidjaja Megawati and Tso-Chien Pan Abstract Several lines of evidence have indicated that the Mentawai segment of the Sumatran megathrust is very likely to rupture within the next few decades. The present study is to investigate seismic hazard and risk levels at major cities in Sumatra, Java, Singapore, and the Malay Peninsula caused by the potential giant earthquakes. Three scenarios are considered. The first one is an Mw 8.6 earthquake rupturing the 280 km segment that has been locked since 1797; in the second scenario, rupture oc- curs along a 600 km segment covering the combined rupture areas of the 1797 and 1833 historical events, producing an Mw 9.0 earthquake; and the third scenario has the same rupture area as the second scenario but with doubled slip amplitude, resulting in an Mw 9.2 earthquake. Simulation results indicate that ground motions produced by the hypothetical scenarios are strong enough to cause yielding to medium- and high- rise buildings in many major cities in Sumatra. It is vital to ensure that the overall strength, stiffness, and integrity of the structures are maintained throughout the entire duration of shaking. However, the ductile detailing in current practice is formulated based on an assumption that ground motions would last from 20 to 40 sec. This has not been tested for longer durations of 3–5 min, expected from giant earthquakes. -
The Subduction Initiation Stage of the Wilson Cycle
Downloaded from http://sp.lyellcollection.org/ by guest on February 20, 2018 The subduction initiation stage of the Wilson cycle ROBERT HALL SE Asia Research Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway University of London, Egham, Surrey, TW20 0EX, UK [email protected] R.H., 0000-0003-1693-6914 Abstract: In the Wilson cycle, there is a change from an opening to a closing ocean when subduction begins. Subduction initiation is commonly identified as a major problem in plate tectonics and is said to be nowhere observable, yet there are many young subduction zones at the west Pacific margins and in eastern Indonesia. Few studies have considered these examples. Banda subduction developed by the eastwards propagation of the Java trench into an oceanic embayment by tearing along a former ocean–continent boundary. The earlier subducted slab provided the driving force to drag down unsubducted oceanic lithosphere. Although this process may be common, it does not account for young subduction zones near Sulawesi at different stages of develop- ment. Subduction began there at the edges of ocean basins, not at former spreading centres or transforms. It initiated at a point where there were major differences in elevation between the ocean floor and the adjacent hot, weak and thickened arc/continental crust. The age of the ocean crust appears to be unimportant. A close relationship with extension is marked by the dramatic elevation of land, the exhumation of deep crust and the spectacular subsidence of basins, raising questions about the time required to move from no subduction to active subduction, and how initiation can be identified in the geological record. -
India and Sunda Plates Motion and Deformation Along Their Boundary In
India and Sunda plates motion and deformation along their boundary in Myanmar determined by GPS Anne Socquet, Christophe Vigny, Nicolas Chamot-Rooke, Wim Simons, Claude Rangin, Boudewijn Ambrosius To cite this version: Anne Socquet, Christophe Vigny, Nicolas Chamot-Rooke, Wim Simons, Claude Rangin, et al.. India and Sunda plates motion and deformation along their boundary in Myanmar determined by GPS. Jour- nal of Geophysical Research : Solid Earth, American Geophysical Union, 2006, 111 (B5), pp.B05406. 10.1029/2005JB003877. hal-01793657 HAL Id: hal-01793657 https://hal-ens.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01793657 Submitted on 16 May 2018 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 111, B05406, doi:10.1029/2005JB003877, 2006 India and Sunda plates motion and deformation along their boundary in Myanmar determined by GPS Anne Socquet,1,2 Christophe Vigny,1 Nicolas Chamot-Rooke,1 Wim Simons,3 Claude Rangin,4 and Boudewijn Ambrosius3 Received 8 June 2005; revised 12 January 2006; accepted 15 February 2006; published 6 May 2006. [1] Using a regional GPS data set including 190 stations in Asia, from Nepal to eastern Indonesia and spanning 11 years, we update the present-day relative motion between the Indian and Sundaland plates and discuss the deformation taking place between them in Myanmar. -
Stress, Rigidity and Sediment Strength Control Megathrust Earthquake and Tsunami Dynamics
Stress, rigidity and sediment strength control megathrust earthquake and tsunami dynamics Thomas Ulrich,1∗ Alice-Agnes Gabriel,1 Elizabeth H. Madden2 1Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitat¨ Munchen,¨ Munich, Germany 2 Observatorio´ Sismologico,´ Instituto de Geociencias,ˆ Universidade de Bras´ılia, Bras´ılia, Brazil ∗E-mail: [email protected] July 31, 2020 Megathrust faults host the largest earthquakes on Earth which can trigger cascading hazards such as devastating tsunamis. Determining characteristics that control subduction zone earth- quake and tsunami dynamics is critical to mitigate megathrust hazards, but is impeded by struc- tural complexity, large spatio-temporal scales, and scarce or asymmetric instrumental cover- age. Here we show that tsunamigenesis and earthquake dynamics are controlled by along-arc variability in regional tectonic stresses together with depth-dependent variations in rigidity and yield strength of near-fault sediments. We aim to identify dominant regional factors controlling megathrust hazards. To this end, we demonstrate how to unify and verify the required initial conditions for geometrically complex, multi-physics earthquake-tsunami modeling from inter- disciplinary geophysical observations. We present large-scale computational models of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and Indian Ocean tsunami that reconcile near- and far-field seis- mic, geodetic, geological, and tsunami observations and reveal tsunamigenic trade-offs between slip to the trench, splay faulting, and bulk yielding of the accretionary wedge. Our computa- tional capabilities render possible the incorporation of present and emerging high-resolution 1 observations into dynamic-rupture-tsunami models. Our findings highlight the importance of regional-scale structural heterogeneity to decipher megathrust hazards.