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Regional Approaches to the Role of Missile Defence in Reducing Nuclear Threats

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Regional Approaches to the Role of Missile Defence in Reducing Nuclear Threats POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH PISM THE POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS POST-CONFERENCE The Polish Institute of InternationalAffairs (PISM) is a leading Central European think tank that positions itself between the world of politics and independent analysis. PISM provides analytical support to decision-makers, initiates public debate and disseminates expert knowledge about contemporary international relations. The work of PISM is guided by the conviction that the decision-making process in international relations should be REPORT based on knowledge that comes from reliable and valid research.The Institute carries out its own research,cooperates on international research projects, prepares reports and analyses and collaborates with institutions with a similar profile worldwide. THE POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS On 14–15 February 2013,the Polish Institute of InternationalAffairs (PISM),with the support of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI),hosted the international conference“Missile Defence in the 21st Century: A Pricey Experiment in Progress or a Credible Way To Reduce Nuclear Threats?” More than a dozen world-class specialists with various backgrounds and representing different countries were joined by Polish officials and experts at the conference.The report in your hand is a follow-up to this event and includes contributions from some of the participants and panellists. Regional Approaches to the Role of Missile Defence in Reducing Nuclear Threats WARSAW JULY 2013 DITOR ARCIN NDRZEJ IOTROWSKI POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH E :M A P THE POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS AUTHORS: JACEK DURKALEC,BENJAMIN GOODLAD,A.VINOD KUMAR, UL.WARECKA 1A, 00-950 WARSZAWA VICTOR MIZIN, MARCIN ANDRZEJ PIOTROWSKI, TEL. (+48) 22 556 80 00, FAX (+48) 22 556 80 99 VÍT STŘÍTECKÝ,MARCIN TERLIKOWSKI [email protected], WWW.PISM.PL ISBN 978-83-62453-65-8 THE POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS REGIONAL APPROACHES TO THE ROLE OF MISSILE DEFENCE IN REDUCING NUCLEAR THREATS Editor: Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski Authors: Jacek Durkalec, Benjamin Goodlad, A. Vinod Kumar, Victor Mizin, Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski, Vít Støítecký, Marcin Terlikowski Warsaw, July 2013 © Polski Instytut Spraw Miêdzynarodowych, 2013 Editor Brien Barnett Technical editor and cover designer Dorota Do³êgowska This study was commissioned by the Nuclear Security Project (NSP) of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI). The views expressed in this report are entirely the authors’ own and not those of the Nuclear Security Project. For more information, see the NSP website: www.nuclearsecurity.org ISBN 978-83 -62453-65-8 Polski Instytut Spraw Miêdzynarodowych ul. Warecka 1a, 00-950 Warszawa phone (+48) 22 556 80 00, fax (+48) 22 556 80 99 [email protected], www.pism.pl Table of Contents Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski Introduction........................................................5 Vít Støítecký Missile Defence as Reinforcement of Deterrence in the 21st Century ..............7 European Debate: Traditionalists vs. Modernists and Beyond ................7 Missile Defence and Strategic Stability.................................8 Strengthening Deterrence through Missile Defence .......................9 Conclusion ....................................................11 Victor Mizin The Russian View on ABM and Its Impact on Nuclear Deterrence ...............12 Jacek Durkalec The Role of Missile Defence in NATO Deterrence ..........................19 System Architecture .............................................19 Missile Defence and Deterrence: a Debate ............................21 Consensus and Its Limits ..........................................25 Conclusions ...................................................28 Marcin Terlikowski The Traps of Burden Sharing: The (Doomed?) Case of the NATO Missile Defence Project ................................29 The Embedded Imbalance: Burden-sharing in NATO.....................29 Flexibility as Panacea for Burden-sharing Problems? .....................31 Strategic (Mis)Perceptions .........................................32 The Economic Dimension of the MD System ...........................34 Too Little Faith in Technology? .....................................35 Conclusions ...................................................36 Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski Proliferation, Missile Defence and Deterrence in the Middle East: New Arms Race or Stabilisation of the Region? .............................37 Uniqueness of the Middle East and North Africa......................37 State of Proliferation of Unconventional Arsenals in the Region ..........38 Obstacles to ICBM Progress in the Middle East .......................41 Development of Missile Defence Capabilities in the Middle East .........42 Risk of Nuclear Multi-polarity in the Middle East .....................45 Conclusion .................................................47 A. Vinod Kumar Missile Defence, Deterrence and Strategic Stability in Southern Asia .............51 Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defence: The Offence-Defence Balance . 51 Nuclear Deterrence in Southern Asia..............................53 Missile Defence in Southern Asia: Technological Dimensions ...........57 Conclusion .................................................60 Benjamin Goodlad Missile Defence and Nuclear Deterrence Relationship in East Asia ..............61 Missile Defence Capabilities ....................................61 Japan’s Nuclear Deterrent ......................................62 South Korea’s Nuclear Deterrent .................................62 Reasons for BMD ............................................63 Challenges of Missile Defence...................................64 Conclusion .................................................64 Contributors ......................................................67 Regional Approaches to the Role of Missile Defence in Reducing Nuclear Threats 5 Introduction Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski At the end of 2012 and in the first few months of 2013, several events—Israel’s Operation Pillar of Defence, NATO’s Patriot deployments to the Turkish–Syrian border and the crisis in North Korea—confirmed that ballistic missile threats and missile defence are of growing importance to global security and particular regions and actors. On 14–15 February 2013, the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), with the support of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), hosted the international conference “Missile Defence in the 21st Century: A Pricey Experiment in Progress or a Credible Way To Reduce Nuclear Threats?” More than a dozen world-class specialists with various backgrounds and representing different countries were joined by Polish officials and experts at the conference. The report in your hand is a natural follow-up to this closed event and includes contributions from some of the participants and panellists. The following chapters should be important additions to the ongoing discussion about the relationship between missile defence and nuclear deterrence, especially keeping in mind the vision of a world free of nuclear weapons, as promoted by the current U.S. administration under President Barack Obama. In the first part of our report, we are dealing mainly with the Euro-Atlantic and Transatlantic dimensions of missile defence. We decided on these regions for obvious strategic reasons, not to mention the implications of these issues for Poland. In the second part of the publication, readers will find perspectives on missile defence presented by authors dealing with these issues outside of the European context, i.e., with regard to the nuclear deterrence relationships between various actors in the Middle and Far East. The first chapter was prepared by Vít Støítecký, who focuses on a critical review of the theoretical and strategic perspectives on missile defence and nuclear deterrence. He stresses there is a need for a conceptualisation of the mutual relationships between them, noting many arguments that a functioning missile defence could essentially contribute to global stability. Next, Victor Mizin looks at the problem of missile defence in the Russia–U.S. and Russia–NATO contexts. He shows clearly that missile defence and nuclear deterrence as discussed by the nuclear superpowers are hostages of their Cold War legacies. Mizin also argues that all of the technical issues could be solved if the general political situation and miscommunication between the U.S. and Russia would be tackled in the near future. Mizin’s contribution is complementary in many respects to the next chapter by Jacek Durkalec, who focuses on the role missile defence plays in NATO’s deterrence structure. He shows the step-by-step, very cautious approach by NATO members to missile defence in the overall posture of the Alliance. He also argues that NATO’s current Deterrence and Defence Posture Review (DDPR) does not provide an unequivocal response about whether missile defence could lead to a reduction in the reliance on non-strategic nuclear weapons in Europe. The fourth paper, by Marcin Terlikowski, looks at the unequal distribution of burden-sharing within the NATO Missile Defence project. He focuses on the unexploited potential for successful burden-sharing and a variety of strategic and purely economic obstacles for project, even though it has been declared as a universal and joint project of the Allies. Next, three case studies are included in our report and specifically focus on three regions that reveal the relationship between missile defence and nuclear threats as well
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