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[email protected] Web: www.csis.org/burke/reports Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Development Facilities Abdullah Toukan, Senior Associate Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy March 14, 2009 Page Introduction 3 Israeli Nuclear Weapons and Ballistic Missiles 5 Iran Nuclear Weapons and Ballistic Missiles Program 19 • Timeline when Iran produces it’s first Nuclear Weapon 26 • Options to deal with Iran’s Nuclear Program within the Time Frame 33 Iran Nuclear Targets 34 • Mission Planning Payloads 37 • Israeli Strike Force Required 45 • Iran Missile Sites 46 Israeli Air Force: Aircraft Mission Capabilities 51 Scenario I: Israeli Air Force Strike against Iranian Nuclear Facilities and Ballistic Missile Sites 59 • Strike Mission Route Profile 69 • Mission Force Allocation 70 • Mission Analysis 71 Scenario II: An Israeli Ballistic Missile Attack against Iranian Nuclear Facilities 72 Iranian Ground and Airborne Defense Means against an Israeli Strike 76 • Iran Ground Based Air Defense Systems 79 The Environmental Damages of an Israeli Attack on the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant. 89 Israeli Air Defense and Ballistic Missile Defense System Vs An Iranian Retaliatory Ballistic Missile Attack using the Shehab -3 93 Military and Political Consequences of an Israeli Attack on Iran’s Nuclear Facilities 99 • Suggested Steps Towards Iran 102 Appendix 104 2 Introduction: • It is always difficult to evaluate a nuclear weapons program without access to concrete intelligence information. This study is based on open sources and we do not claim to be one hundred percent accurate and complete.