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Morning News & Views Morning News & Views - Asia A Summary of Select Global Markets Research Wednesday 12 April 2017 KEY FORECAST CHANGES RATING TARGET PRICE CUR YEAR EPS NEXT YEAR EPS SECURITY / SECTOR TICKER CURR CURR OLD NEW OLD NEW U/D% OLD NEW OLD NEW COMPANY RATING CHANGES Aboitiz Power AP PM Not Rated Buy PHP N/A 49 +16.1 PHP N/A 3.04 N/A 3.32 Corporation Alliance Global Group, AGI PM Not Rated Buy PHP N/A 16.6 +22.1 PHP N/A 1.44 N/A 1.57 Inc. GT Capital Holdings, GTCAP PM Not Rated Buy PHP N/A 1,388 +18.3 PHP N/A 82.97 N/A 77.88 Inc. Petron Corporation PCOR PM Not Rated Buy PHP N/A 11.5 +31.1 PHP N/A 59.54c N/A 83.03c Semirara Mining and SCC PM Not Rated Buy PHP N/A 175 +16 PHP N/A 13.96 N/A 14.63 Power Corporation SM Investments SM PM Not Rated Buy PHP N/A 858 +16.3 PHP N/A 28.77 N/A 33.56 Corporation Emperador Inc. EMP PM Not Rated Neutral PHP N/A 6.9 +10.2 PHP N/A 51.41c N/A 56.19c Energy Development EDC PM Not Rated Neutral PHP N/A 6.5 +6.6 PHP N/A 52.24c N/A 56.62c Corporation JG Summit Holdings, JGS PM Not Rated Neutral PHP N/A 89.6 +11.2 PHP N/A 4.15 N/A 3.77 Inc. LT Group, Inc. LTG PM Not Rated Neutral PHP N/A 16.23 +4.7 PHP N/A 77.63c N/A 89.37c Manila Electric MER PM Not Rated Neutral PHP N/A 310 +11.5 PHP N/A 17.12 N/A 16.48 Company Manila Water MWC PM Not Rated Neutral PHP N/A 32 +3.1 PHP N/A 2.71 N/A 2.78 Company, Inc. San Miguel Corporation SMC PM Not Rated Neutral PHP N/A 112 +5.7 PHP N/A 5.48 N/A 5.59 SSI Group, Inc. SSI PM Not Rated Neutral PHP N/A 2.4 +8.6 PHP N/A 17.15c N/A 17.69c Universal Robina URC PM Not Rated Neutral PHP N/A 185 +12.1 PHP N/A 6.21 N/A 6.83 Corporation Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI IJ Reduce Neutral IDR 3270.00 6600.00 +3.1 IDR 230.39 233.58 274.84 294.04 The HongKong and 45 HK Reduce Neutral HKD 6.60 8.90 -0.6 HKD 43.06c 44.56c 42.84c 50.64c Shanghai Hotels China Railway 601186 CH Neutral Reduce CNY 12.35 - -11.7 CNY 1.19 - 1.28 - Construction Corp TARGET PRICE CHANGES Petronet LNG PLNG IN Buy - INR 425.00 510.00 +23.4 INR 17.89 21.53 22.90 25.14 Inovance Technology 300124 CH Buy - CNY 25.10 27.46 +19.4 CNY 71.45c 71.94c 87.13c 89.29c First Tractor 38 HK Reduce - HKD 4.45 3.92 -12.5 CNY 24.62c 22.54c 25.02c 22.19c First Tractor 601038 CH Reduce - CNY 6.70 5.79 -50.1 CNY 24.62c 22.54c 25.02c 22.19c *U/D % = Potential Up/Downside % HIGHLIGHTS FOR TODAY Anchor Report: Philippines tax reforms - The other big catalyst Dante Tinga Jr - BDO-NS / Euben Paracuelles - NSL / Thomas Earll Huang - BDO-NS / Angelo Torres - BDO-NS Possible change in tax system to have major implications for stocks, sectors, and the economy Initiating on stocks in the consumer, conglos, power, other sectors. The implementation of the Duterte administration's plan to make the Philippine tax system fairer, simpler, and more efficient is likely to have major long- term implications for the local economy, as it should spur consumer spending and investment activity. We believe tax reform is one of two key domestic catalysts possibly impacting the Philippine equity markets this year. The passage of the Comprehensive Tax Reform Program (CTRP) is high on the government's agenda, particularly as it facilitates sustained funding of the government's proposed massive infrastructure and human capital investments Production Complete: 2017-04-11 21:46 UTC See Appendix A-1 for analyst certification, important disclosures and the status of non-US analysts. Nomura | Morning News & Views - Asia 12 April 2017 programme, which is the other key catalyst to look out for (see Philippines infrastructure: Aggressive ramp in infra spending ahead ). Given the arduousness of the Philippine legislative process, the Department of Finance (DOF) is taking a pragmatic approach by proposing bite-sized, net revenue-enhancing tax packages. ● Manila Electric Company (MER PM, Not Rated→Neutral, TP PHP 310) ● Energy Development Corporation (EDC PM, Not Rated→Neutral, TP PHP 6.5) ● Manila Water Company, Inc. (MWC PM, Not Rated→Neutral, TP PHP 32) ● Aboitiz Power Corporation (AP PM, Not Rated→Buy, TP PHP 49) ● Universal Robina Corporation (URC PM, Not Rated→Neutral, TP PHP 185) ● Emperador Inc. (EMP PM, Not Rated→Neutral, TP PHP 6.9) ● SSI Group, Inc. (SSI PM, Not Rated→Neutral, TP PHP 2.4) ● Petron Corporation (PCOR PM, Not Rated→Buy, TP PHP 11.5) ● Alliance Global Group, Inc. (AGI PM, Not Rated→Buy, TP PHP 16.6) ● GT Capital Holdings, Inc. (GTCAP PM, Not Rated→Buy, TP PHP 1,388) ● JG Summit Holdings, Inc. (JGS PM, Not Rated→Neutral, TP PHP 89.6) ● LT Group, Inc. (LTG PM, Not Rated→Neutral, TP PHP 16.23) ● Semirara Mining and Power Corporation (SCC PM, Not Rated→Buy, TP PHP 175) ● San Miguel Corporation (SMC PM, Not Rated→Neutral, TP PHP 112) ● SM Investments Corporation (SM PM, Not Rated→Buy, TP PHP 858) Quick Note - Asia basic materials and energy - Your questions, our answers - US marketing Cindy Park - NFIK / David Hwang - NFIK We met with investors in the US recently to share our outlook on Asian EV battery, chemical, refining, steel and utility sectors, and we summarise our takeaways below: EV batteries - lithium and cobalt supply shortage concerns. Is Nomura's forecast for an EV penetration rate of 27% by 2030F too conservative? (though we note Volkswagen forecasts 25% penetration by 2025F). While most investors seemed comfortable with our forecast, some noted that once the EV batteries reach a price level of USD100/kWh, EV penetration could accelerate to higher than 30%. Many investors were interested in the availability of cobalt and lithium supply in the future. While we know of companies raising lithium production, the industry seems to have less information on cobalt (~60% of production is in the Republic of Congo). Investors asked about what efforts battery companies are making to secure supply. Quick Note - Hanwha Chemical Corp (009830 KS, Neutral) - Analyst day takeaways (TP KRW 28,000) Cindy Park - NFIK / David Hwang - NFIK We attended Hanwha Chemical's (HCC) analysts' meeting on 11 April. Overall, we came away with an impression that caustic soda and TDI are leading chemical earnings while PVC and PE earnings may slow after a rally over the past couple of months. HCC's equity income from chemical subsidiaries - YNCC (Yeochun NCC, unlisted) and Hanwha Total (unlisted) - should have benefited from olefin and styrene monomer in 1Q17. While we largely agree with the company's conservative 2Q17F outlook, we will monitor the recent rise in oil and coking coal prices as potential drivers of HCC's chemical prices. We remain Neutral, as we think the solar earnings downturn will limit upside for the stock. We prefer LG Chem (051910 KS, Buy) for its defensive chemical portfolio, turnaround in electronic materials, and EV battery growth. Basic materials (chemical, poly-si) caustic soda/TDI face tight supply. Quick Note - Korea telecoms - Presidential candidate proposes tariff cut Angela Hong - NFIK Moon Jae-In to push for removal of base charge and handset subsidy ceiling. According to Yonhap News on 11 April, Korea's leading presidential candidate Moon Jae-in (from the opposition party The Minjoo) has proposed a new policy to lower households' handset-related expenses. Key points include: 1) abolition of base charges; 2) immediate removal of handset subsidy ceilings, which were originally scheduled to be removed in October 2017; 3) free wifi service in all public places by the three major carriers; 4) wider fee discounts and allowing the carry-over of the previous month's leftover calling plan; 5) abolishing roaming charges within Korea, China and Japan. Depending on definition of "base charge", impact of removing it to be meaningful. Since the handset subsidy ceiling was going to be removed anyway and telecom operators' subsidies have been lower than the ceiling, we expect the immediate removal of the handset subsidy ceiling would have a limited impact on the telecoms sector. Petronet LNG (PLNG IN, Buy) - Raise TP to Street-high INR510 (TP INR 425→INR 510) Anil Sharma - NFASL / Ravi Adukia, CFA - NFASL As LNG prices remain benign and demand strong, Dahej can continue to surprise; reiterate Buy Action: Dahej can continue to surprise; lift TP to a Street-high INR510 Our confidence continues in PLNG - India's key LNG importer - as a compelling story and safest name in our coverage ( Anchor Report ). PLNG's run has been strong (up 72/127% over 1Y/2Y vs SENSEX's 21/3%). Certainly, after early expansion and the fast-ramp of its Dahej capacity last year, volume growth should slow. But as global LNG markets remain in a glut, prices benign (Fig. 1), and Indian demand strong (up 16% in FY17F, Fig. 2-6), we think Dahej can continue to surprise.
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