A Modeling Analysis of the Landfall of Hurricane Marty (2003) in Baja California, Mexico L.M

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A Modeling Analysis of the Landfall of Hurricane Marty (2003) in Baja California, Mexico L.M

Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 7, 03431, 2005 SRef-ID: 1607-7962/gra/EGU05-A-03431 © European Geosciences Union 2005 A modeling analysis of the landfall of Hurricane Marty (2003) in Baja California, Mexico L.M. Farfán CICESE-Unidad La Paz, Mexico ([email protected]) This study documents the life cycle of Tropical Cyclone Marty, which developed in late September 2003 over the eastern Pacific Ocean and made landfall on the Baja Cal- ifornia Peninsula of northwestern Mexico. Observations and best-track data indicate that the center of circulation moved across the southern peninsula and Gulf of Cal- ifornia. Satellite and radar imagery were used to analyze the structure of convective patterns. Rain gauges recorded precipitation over 300 mm. A network of surface mete- orological stations in the vicinity of the storm track detected sustained winds up to 41 m/s and peak gusts up to 52 m/s. The storm was responsible for several deaths, major property damage, soil erosion and flooding, and evacuation from coastal communities. Official, real-time forecasts issued by the United States National Hurricane Center prior to landfall were compared with the best track. This resulted in a westward bias of positions with decreasing errors during subsequent forecast cycles. Numerical simulations from the fifth generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) were used to examine the evolution of the cyclonic circulation over the southern peninsula. The model was applied to a nested grid with horizontal resolution as detailed as 3.3 km with a set of short-term simulations initialized at 9-34 hours prior to landfall. The output of the model provides a reasonable prediction of Marty’s motion during landfall and the circulation charac- teristics are consistent with the information derived from observations. Additionally, the model was used to estimate the influence of the peninsular mountain ranges in a realistic simulation of the storm track over the Gulf of California..

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