Article 5 Countries I,P K I,K I,K,M,P I,K,P I,K,M,P M Average of 2009 and 2010 for Article 5 Countries
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2795–2816, 2017 www.atmos-chem-phys.net/17/2795/2017/ doi:10.5194/acp-17-2795-2017 © Author(s) 2017. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Global emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases 2005–2050 with abatement potentials and costs Pallav Purohit and Lena Höglund-Isaksson International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria Correspondence to: Pallav Purohit ([email protected]) Received: 11 August 2016 – Discussion started: 16 August 2016 Revised: 31 January 2017 – Accepted: 1 February 2017 – Published: 23 February 2017 Abstract. This study uses the GAINS model framework gas emissions at a global scale, the potential for reducing to estimate current and future emissions of fluorinated emissions, and the associated abatement costs. A baseline greenhouse gases (F-gases), their abatement potentials, and scenario for future F-gas emissions is developed, taking ac- costs for twenty source sectors and 162 countries and re- count of future emission control expected from national and gions, which are aggregated to produce global estimates. international legislations adopted before July 2016 when this Global F-gas (HFCs, PFCs, and SF6/ emissions are esti- paper was first submitted. Hence, the baseline scenario does mated at 0.7 Pg CO2 eq: in 2005 with an expected increase to not account for the effects of the amended Montreal Proto- 3.7 Pg CO2 eq: in 2050 if application of control technology col agreed in Kigali, Rwanda, in October 2016. Using the remains at the current level. There are extensive opportuni- framework of the Greenhouse gas and Air pollution Interac- ties to reduce emissions using existing technology and alter- tions and Synergies (GAINS) model (http://gains.iiasa.ac.at), native substances with low global warming potential. Esti- we estimate in 5-year intervals for 2005 to 2050 global emis- mates show that it would be technically feasible to reduce sions and abatement potentials of the F-gases (hydrofluoro- cumulative F-gas emissions from 81 to 11 Pg CO2 eq: be- carbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulfur hexaflu- tween 2018 and 2050. A reduction in cumulative emissions oride (SF6//, which are addressed under the Kyoto Proto- to 23 Pg CO2 eq: is estimated to be possible at a marginal col (KP) (UNFCCC, 2014). To account for the full global −1 abatement cost below 10 EUR t CO2 eq. We also find that warming effect of the combined use of HFCs and hydrochlo- future F-gas abatement is expected to become relatively more rofluorocarbons (HCFCs) as coolants, and considering that costly for developing than developed countries due to differ- they are close substitutes with equally strong GWPs, we keep ences in the sector contribution to emissions and abatement track of and display baseline HCFC emissions in parallel potentials. to HFC emissions, even though HCFCs are not a target for future abatement efforts since they are addressed as ozone- depleting substances (ODSs) that are subject to phase-out under the Montreal Protocol (MP) (UNEP, 2007). Twenty 1 Introduction source sectors (14 for HFCs, 2 for PFCs and 4 for SF6 emis- sions) are identified and emissions are estimated separately Fluorinated greenhouse gases (F-gases) contribute approxi- for 162 countries and regions. For each F-gas source sector, mately 2 % of the global greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC, we identify a set of abatement options and estimate their re- 2014). The rapidly increasing demand for refrigeration and duction potentials and costs based on information from pub- cooling services, particularly in developing countries, threat- licly available sources. We also point out major sources of ens to increase F-gas emissions considerably over the next uncertainty and highlight critical gaps in knowledge. few decades. Many F-gases have very high global warming Our work adds to existing literature (Velders et al., 2009; potentials (GWPs) and therefore small atmospheric concen- Gschrey et al., 2011; Meinshausen et al., 2011; Montzka et trations can have large effects on global temperatures. In this al., 2011; USEPA, 2013; Velders et al., 2014; Ragnauth et al., work, we identify and quantify all important sources of F- Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 2796 P. Purohit and L. Höglund-Isaksson: Global emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases 2005–2050 2015; Velders et al., 2015) an independently developed emis- where i, k, m, and p represent the country, activity type, sion inventory with future projections and abatement poten- abatement technology, and pollutant, respectively, Ei;p indi- tials estimated at the technology level, thereby allowing for a cates emissions of specific pollutant p (i.e., here HFC, PFC, high degree of resolution for the estimated emissions, abate- and SF6/ in country i, Ai;k is the activity level of type k in ment potentials and marginal abatement cost curves. country i, efi;k;m;p is the emission factor of pollutant p for Our findings confirm previous findings (EDGAR, 2013; activity k in country i after application of control measure Gschrey et al., 2011; Velders et al., 2009) that in 2005 m, GWPi;k;p is the global warming potential of pollutant p emissions of HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 contributed about when applied in country i to sector k, and Xi;k;m;p is the 0.7 Pg CO2 eq: to global greenhouse gas emissions, while share of total activity of type k in country i to which control our baseline projection, reaching 3.7 Pg CO2 eq: in 2050, is measure m for pollutant p is applied. somewhat lower than the business-as-usual estimates of pre- Structural differences in emission sources are reflected vious studies (Velders et al., 2015; Gschrey et al., 2011), as through country-specific activity levels. Major differences discussed further in Sect. 4.5. in the emission characteristics of specific sources are rep- Section 2 presents the methodology used to estimate emis- resented through source-specific emission factors, which ac- sions and abatement costs. Section 3 describes the develop- count for the extent to which emission control measures are ment of emission scenarios. Section 4 presents results with applied. The GAINS model estimates future emissions by comparisons to previous studies. Section 5 discusses differ- varying activity levels along exogenous projections of the de- ent sources of uncertainty and Sect. 6 concludes the study. velopment of human activity drivers and by adjusting imple- More details on HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 consumption as well mentation rates of emission control measures (e.g., Höglund- as emission estimation and abatement potentials and costs Isaksson et al., 2012). In a further step, uncontrolled emission are provided in Sect. S2 of the Supplement. factors and removal efficiencies for given control measures are summarized in adjusted emission factors. This approach allows for the capture of critical differences across economic 2 Methodology sectors and countries that might justify differentiated emis- sion reduction strategies on the basis of cost-effectiveness. 2.1 F-gas emission estimation in GAINS 2.2 Activity data The estimation of current and future F-gas emissions and Activity data used to estimate HFC emissions in the years the potential for emission reductions and costs follow stan- 2005 and 2010 is derived from HFC consumption reported dard GAINS model methodology (Amann et al., 2011) with by Annex-I countries to the UNFCCC (UNFCCC, 2012). some modifications specific to F-gases. To account for the For non-Annex-I countries (i.e., primarily developing coun- wide spread in global warming potentials for different F- tries), HCFC and HFC consumption data is extracted from gases, emission factors are converted to carbon dioxide available literature (MoEF, 2009; UNEP, 2011a; GIZ, 2014; (CO2/ equivalents by multiplying the technology-specific UNDP, 2014a, b). However, for some non-Annex-I coun- emission factor with the respective GWPs over 100 years tries very limited information is available on the HFC use, (IPCC, 2007a). Starting from April 2015, Annex-I (industri- which prompts the use of default assumptions, adding to alized) countries report all greenhouse gases to the United uncertainty in the estimates for these countries. For HFC Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN- use in refrigeration, air conditioning, fire extinguishers, and FCCC) (UNFCCC, 2015a) using GWPs from IPCC AR4 ground-source heat pumps, HFC emissions are estimated (IPCC, 2007b). As the official reporting to UNFCCC func- separately for “banked” emissions, i.e., leakage from equip- tions as a basis for negotiations of future climate policy pro- ment in use, and for “scrapping” emissions, i.e., emissions posals, we apply IPCC AR4 GWPs throughout this analysis, released at the end-of-life of the equipment. This is also the however, make comparisons to the use of IPCC AR2 (IPCC, format used by countries when reporting HFC emissions to 1996) and IPCC AR5 (IPCC, 2014) GWPs in the uncertainty the UNFCCC (2015a). As domestic refrigerators are her- analysis in Sect. 4. A complete list of GWPs for different metic there is no risk of leakage during use and therefore substances recommended under the second, fourth, and fifth only “scrapping” emissions are accounted for. At the end-of- IPCC ARs are presented in Table S2 of the Supplement. life, the scrapped equipment is assumed to be fully loaded For each pollutant (i.e., HFC, PFC, and SF6/, the GAINS with refrigerant which needs recovery, recycling, or destruc- model estimates current and future emissions based on ac- tion. In addition, for each HFC emission source, the fraction tivity data, uncontrolled emission factors, the removal effi- of HCFC in the HFC/HCFC use is identified from reported ciency of emission control measures and the extent to which baselines1 of parties to the MP and modeled in consistency such measures are applied, as follows: 11989 HCFC consumption C 2.8 % of X X E D A ef GWP X ; (1) 1989 consumption for non-Article 5 countries i;p k i;k i;k;m;p i;k;p i;k;m;p m Average of 2009 and 2010 for Article 5 countries Atmos.