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Greenhouse Gas Emissions Section 3.7 – Greenhouse Gas Emissions 3.7 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS 3.7.1 INTRODUCTION This section of the PEIR presents a discussion of the current regulatory framework related to global climate change in California. Impacts related to global climate change are analyzed and mitigation measures are provided for any potentially significant impacts. 3.7.2 ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING The information contained in this Environmental Setting section is based upon information contained in the City of Lake Elsinore Climate Action Plan, which is summarized below and incorporated herein by reference. The Climate Action Plan is attached as Appendix G of this PEIR. GREENHOUSE GASES AND GLOBAL WARMING/CLIMATE CHANGE Energy from the Sun drives the Earth's weather and climate. The Earth absorbs energy from the Sun and also radiates energy back into space. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), a greenhouse gas (GHG) is any gas that absorbs this energy in the Earth’s atmosphere. This absorption traps heat within the atmosphere, maintaining Earth’s surface temperature at a level higher (by about 60°F) than would be the case in the absence of GHGs (see Figure 3.7-1, The Greenhouse Effect). GHGs include water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), and ozone (O3). Naturally occurring GHGs include water vapor, CO2, CH4, N2O, and O3. Human activities add to the levels of most of these naturally occurring GHGs (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], 2007). Other GHGs (e.g., HFCs and PFCs) are created and emitted solely through human activities. The principal GHGs that enter the atmosphere because of human activities are discussed later in this section. Increasing levels of GHGs in the atmosphere result in an increase in the temperature of the Earth’s lower atmosphere, a phenomenon which is commonly referred to as “global warming.” Warming of the Earth’s lower atmosphere induces a suite of additional changes including changes in: global precipitation patterns; ocean circulation, temperature and acidity; wind patterns; and storms. These large-scale changes over an extended period of time are collectively referred to as “climate change “. G ENERAL P LAN U PDATE CERTIFIED D ECEMBER 2011 D RAFT P ROGRAM EIR A UGUST 2011 P AGE 3.7-1 Section 3.7 - Greenhouse Gas Emission Figure 3.7-1, The Greenhouse Effect NATURAL WARMING AMPLIFIED WARMING The greenhouse effect is a natural warming process. Increasing the amount of greenhouse gases intensifies the Carbon dioxide (CO2) and certain other gases are always greenhouse effect. Higher concentrations of CO2 and other present in the atmosphere. These gases create a warming greenhouse gases trap more infrared energy in the atmosphere effect that has some similarity to the warming inside a than occurs naturally. The additional heat further warms the greenhouse, hence the name “greenhouse effect.” atmosphere and Earth’s surface. Sunlight brings energy into the climate system; most of it is absorbed by the oceans and land. THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT: AMPLIFIED GREENHOUSE EFFECT: Heat (infrared energy) radiates outward from the Higher concentrations of CO2 and other "greenhouse" warmed surface of the Earth. gases trap more infrared energy in the atmosphere than Some of the infrared energy is absorbed by occurs naturally. The additional heat further warms the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which re-emit atmosphere and Earth’s surface. the energy in all directions. Some of the infrared energy further warms the Earth. Some of the infrared energy is emitted into space. Source: Marian Koshland Science Museum of the National Academy of Sciences (www.koshland-science- museum.org/exhibitgcc/index.jsp) In 1988, the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) established to assess scientific, technical and socioeconomic information relevant to the understanding of climate change, its potential impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation. As the leading authority on climate change science, the IPCC draws upon hundreds of the world's expert scientists as authors and thousands as expert reviewers. According to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (2007), over the past 150 years, since the industrial era, activities such as the use of fossil fuels (i.e., coal, natural gas, oil and gasoline) to power cars, factories, utilities and C ERTIFIED D ECEMBER 2011 GENERAL P LAN U PDATE D RAFT P ROGRAM EIR A UGUST 2011 P AGE 3.7-2 Section 3.7 – Greenhouse Gas Emissions appliances have substantially added to the amount of GHGs in the atmosphere. For example, carbon dioxide concentrations rose from 280 parts per million (ppm) in 1750 to over 391 ppm in 2011, and are rising at on average 1.66 ppm per year (IPCC, 2007; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association [NOAA], 2011). The annual growth rate of carbon dioxide has also increased, averaging about 1.43 ppm per year before 1995 and 1.91 ppm per year thereafter. This increase in carbon dioxide and other GHGs - including methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases - correlates with the recent increase in global average temperature (which has risen approximately 1.4°F since the early 20th century) (IPCC, 2007; NOAA, 2009). The principal GHGs that enter the atmosphere as a result of human activities include: Carbon dioxide (CO2) is released into the atmosphere through the burning of fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, and coal), solid waste, trees and wood products, and also as a result of other chemical reactions (e.g., manufacture of cement). Carbon dioxide is also removed from the atmosphere (or “sequestered”) when it is absorbed by plants as part of the biological carbon cycle. Since the Industrial Revolution in the 1700’s, human activities, such as the burning of oil, coal and gas, and deforestation, have increased CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. In 2005, global atmospheric concentrations of CO2 were 35% higher than they were before the Industrial Revolution. CO2 is one of the six greenhouse gases identified in the California Global Warming Solutions Act. Methane (CH4) is emitted from a variety of both human-related (anthropogenic) and natural sources. Human-related activities include fossil fuel production, animal husbandry (enteric fermentation in livestock and manure management), rice cultivation, biomass burning, and waste management. These activities release significant quantities of methane to the atmosphere. It is estimated that more than 50 percent of global methane emissions are related to human- related activities. Natural sources of methane include wetlands, gas hydrates, permafrost, termites, oceans, freshwater bodies, non-wetland soils, and other sources such as wildfires. CH4 is one of the six greenhouse gases identified in the California Global Warming Solutions Act. Nitrous oxide (N2O) is produced by both natural and human-related sources. Primary human- related sources of N2O are agricultural soil management, animal manure management, sewage treatment, mobile and stationary combustion of fossil fuel, adipic acid production, and nitric acid production. Nitrous oxide is also produced naturally from a wide variety of biological sources in soil and water, particularly microbial action in wet tropical forests. Nitrous oxide emission levels from a source can vary significantly from one country or region to another, depending on many factors such as industrial and agricultural production characteristics, combustion technologies, waste management practices, and climate. N2O is one of the six greenhouse gases identified in the California Global Warming Solutions Act. Fluorinated gases (i.e., hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride) are emitted from a variety of industrial processes including aluminum production, semiconductor manufacturing, electric power transmission, magnesium production and processing, and the production of HCFC-22. In addition, some high GWP gases are being used to replace ozone- depleting substitutes (i.e., chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and G ENERAL P LAN U PDATE CERTIFIED D ECEMBER 2011 D RAFT P ROGRAM EIR A UGUST 2011 P AGE 3.7-3 Section 3.7 - Greenhouse Gas Emission halons) allowing the rapid phase out of these gases. These gases are typically emitted in smaller quantities but are generally very strong GHGs. Hydro-Fluorocarbons (HFCS) - These HFC chemicals were introduced as alternatives to ozone-depleting substances in many industrial, commercial, and personal products. HFCs are emitted as by-products of industrial processes and are also used in manufacturing. They do not significantly deplete the stratospheric ozone layer, but they are powerful greenhouse gases with a GWP ranging from 140 (HFC-152a) to 12,100 (HFC-23). HFCS are one of the six greenhouse gases identified in the California Global Warming Solutions Act. Per-Fluorocarbons (PFCS) - PFCs are a group of human-made chemicals composed of carbon and fluorine only: CF4 and C2F6. These chemicals, specifically CF4 and C2F6, were introduced as alternatives to ozone-depleting substances. In addition, they are emitted as by-products of industrial processes and are also used in manufacturing. PFCs do not harm the stratospheric ozone layer, but they are powerful greenhouse gases. CF4 has a GWP of 6,300 and C2F6 has a GWP of 12,500. PFCS are one of the six greenhouse gases
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