Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 1 ISSN 0111-1736
Meteorological Society Of New Zealand (Inc.)
NEWSLETTER 143 Summer 2015/2016
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 2 Meteorological Society Of New Zealand (Inc.) NEWSLETTER 143 SUMMER 2015/2016 PO Box 6523, Marion Square, Wellington 6141, New Zealand Please forward contributions to Bob McDavitt, [email protected]
CONTENTS Page Presidential foreword 3 Conference 2015 4 AGM Minutes and reports 5-11 Spring: NIWA review 12-13 Notable events 13-20 Christchurch, Ben Tichborne 20 Pick of the clips 21-51
Your Committee President Daniel Kingston Immediate Past President Sam Dean Secretary Katrina Richards Treasurer Andrew Tait Circulation Manager Sylvia Nichol
Auckland VP Nava Fedaeff Hamilton VP Tim Gunn Wellington VP James Renwick Christchurch VP Adrian MacDonald Dunedin VP Daniel Kingston
Journal Editor Jennifer Salmond Newsletter Editor Bob McDavitt Website Liaison Stefanie Kremser
General Committee Mike Revell Michael Martens Charles Pearson Views and endorsements expressed in this newsletter are those of the contributors and advertisers, and not necessarily those of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand. The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by the Society.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 3
WELCOME TO 2016
Kia ora koutou
I would like to take this opportunity to wish you all a Happy New Year – I hope 2016 is successful and enjoyable for you all.
From a meteorological and climatological perspective there is cer- tainly plenty of interest. The substantial El Niño event currently un- derway is shaping up to be the strongest since the 1998 event. As well as in luencing conditions across the Paci ic region, the effects of El Niño have been felt further a ield, such as the record high temper- atures and rainfall experienced in December in the UK (where I have been staying for the last few months). Furthermore, 2015 is likely to be warmest year in the instrumental record, again partly linked to the current El Niño event. Although hardly needed, this puts even greater focus on the importance of the outcomes (and further work required) of the recent Paris climate summit.
Closer to home, the National Science Challenges are getting under- way, with the focus of the ‘Deep South’ challenge on our ability to an- ticipate, respond to, and adapt to a changing climate of particular relevance to many in the society. All in all, there is lots to be interest- ed in and excited about!
Best wishes, Daniel.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 4 CONFERENCE 2015 (Raglan) As uploaded to our Facebook site at www.facebook.com/nzmetsoc Thanks to our secretary Katrina Richards.
Presentations are now available at http://www.metsoc.org.nz/conference
AGM Minutes (Draft 4 Dec 2015) 23 November 2015, Raglan.
Meeting began at 5:50pm, chaired by James Lunny in the absence of Daniel Kingston (President). Minutes taken by Katrina Richards (Secretary).
1. Attendance Ben Liley, Elizabeth Somervell, Greg Bodeker, Gregor Macara, James Lunny, James Renwick, Katrina Richards, Michael Martens, Mike Harvey, Mike Revell, Richard Gorman, Richard Turner, Roger Davies, Sally Gray, Stephen Stuart, Tony Bromley, Trevor Carey-Smith.
2. Apologies Andrew Sturman, Andrew Tait, Bob McDavitt, Brian Giles, Cliff Revell, Daniel Kingston, How- ard Diamond, Jennifer Salmond, John Lumsden, Matthew Ruglys, Neil Gordon, Sam Dean, Shane Bilish, Stefanie Kremser, Sylvia Nicol, Tim Gunn, Tom Adams. 3. Con irmation of minutes of previous AGM. There is one minor error to correct—“2013” at start of President’s Report should read “2014” (Katrina Richards). No further changes were requested from the loor. Motion that “The minutes of the previous AGM, held on the 19 November 2014 be accepted as a true and cor- rect record ” proposed by Sally Gray/Seconded by James Renwick – carried. 4. Matters Arising No discussion was undertaken at this point because all Matters Arising were to be covered in the President and Financial Reports.
5. President’s report President’s Report to the 2015 AGM (By Daniel Kingston, read by James Lunny) Firstly I would like to thank everyone who has turned up to the AGM. I feel a little embar- rassed at not being able to attend my irst AGM as President – but I am currently on a 6-month sabbatical in Europe, making attendance a little dif icult! So, thanks to everyone for putting up with my absence, and in particular to James Lunny for chairing this AGM in my place. In fact, I would like to start by expressing my gratitude to the whole committee for 2015 for all of their efforts – thanks to them my role has been much easier. Summary of activities for 2015 The committee met 4 times this year. Membership Numbers have been relatively stable, and we continue to bene it from the new MetService memberships. Website There have been good and not so good matters related to the website. Existing Weather and Climate volumes on the website have been re-loaded to conform with various formatting is- sues for search engines. We now have volumes 1-19 and 28-34 on the web, with hopefully more to follow. Andrew Tait in particular has been instrumental in getting the volumes online this year. We have continued using the website for posting news and updates (particular thanks to Bob McDavitt here). Unfortunately, the website email facility got hacked earlier in the year, so this feature had to be disabled. This has impacted general communication from the committee to the Society, in particular the newsletter & weekly updates circulated by Bob (currently done through Mail- Chimp instead), and advertisement of regional presentations of interest by the Vice Presi- dents. We have made a start on resolving this issue, but have been slowed down by the lack of a speci ic website of icer on the committee. In liaison with Eddie Wealthall (the web designer/ Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 6 technician responsible for the update of the website a few years ago) some solutions have been proposed, but not yet acted upon – a task for the website of icer in 2016.
Journal Weather and Climate is now mostly visible on Google Scholar – thanks to Andrew and others for formatting and uploading the articles to meet these standards. Requests have been put in to Web of Science and Scopus to have the journal recognized on their data bases. These re- quests are still active (these data bases take some time to assess the quality of the material in the journal). Following the reduction in costs by reducing the number of copies printed and distributing journal electronically, we have also identi ied a new printing company to produce the remain- ing hard-copies that we create. This is expected to make further substantial savings – Volume 35 will be the irst journal to come from the new printers. Volume 35 of Weather and Climate is not yet out. There have been some dif iculties this year in getting enough manuscripts to constitute a volume. An additional call for papers was sent out in September, with some success. We received a number of responses and hope to have enough papers ready to publish Volume 35 before 2015 is out, although the timing is tight. The journal continues to publish interesting papers so hopefully this year is a one-off. Howev- er it is a matter for ongoing discussion how to maintain interest in the journal. A successful outcome in terms of inclusion in Web of Science and Scopus should help in this respect. Newsletter Thanks once again to Bob McDavitt, who continues to do a lot of hard work in producing the Metsoc newsletters. Regional meetings The Vice-Presidents have been hampered somewhat by the aforementioned website issues, with fewer presentations advertised to the regions this year. By my count, 17 seminars have been advertised (9 for Dunedin, 8 for Wellington). Although there are some good reasons for the drop-off from 2014, I hope the VPs can be a bit more active next year. Conferences The November 2014 conference was held in Wellington, and was very successful with possibly a record number of attendees. The conference approximately broke-even inancially, follow- ing student grants and prizes. Although sadly I am not here to enjoy it, on paper the conference this year sounds great – an interesting range of speakers in an interesting location. Although smaller, the number of dele- gates is good for a non-main centre location. Again, we should be close to breaking-even for this year’s conference. The organisers have put a huge amount of effort in to setting up and running the conference. Mike Revell, Sam Dean, Andrew Tait and James Lunny have all con- tributed, but the lion’s share of the work has been done by Michael Martens (advertisements, abstracts, programme) and Tim Gunn (all local logistics and organization) – both deserve an enormous thankyou from me and the society. As indicated earlier in the year, the proposed joint conference with the Australian Meteorolo- gy and Oceanographic Society and the ANZ Climate Forum for February 2016 fell through, ow- ing to a couple of misunderstandings beyond our control. As a result this joint conference will now take place in 2017, with dates provisionally booked for 7-10 th February. The likely venue will be the Australian National University (ANU) in Canberra. This booking will be inalized by early 2016. The ANZ Climate Forum is expected to take place on the inal day of the confer- ence. There are some funds associated with the ANZ Climate Forum that will be used to aid at- tendance. There will likely be a short one-day Met Soc event in November 2016 (probably Wellington) to coincide with the AGM, but this is yet to be con irmed – a matter for the 2016 committee to consider. Following our improved inancial position (primarily as a result of our new Met Service mem- bers and switch to electronic distribution of our journals) the Society now provides grants to
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 7 assist student members to attend international conferences, initially with up to four grants of $1000 on offer per year. Only one has been taken up so far (expect to see a report on this con- ference from the recipient in the Newsletter at some point). It is expected that these grants may be of particular help for the upcoming 2017 joint conference in Canberra. Finally I would just like to end by offering my best wishes to everyone for the holiday season and New Year ahead. Daniel Kingston, President of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand (2015). Motion that “ The President’s Report be accepted ” proposed by Tony Bromley/Seconded by James Renwick – carried.
6. Treasurer’s report (By Andrew Tait, read by James Lunny) Meteorological Society of New Zealand Pro it and Loss Account for the year ended 31 July 2015 Financial Year ending 31 July 2015 2014 Income Subscriptions Received 14,079 13,608 Conference Surplus 2,158 1,881 Interest Received 1,575 1,230 Total Income 17,812 16,719
Expenditure Audit fee 455 455 Newsletter 2,065 2,678 Other Expenses 576 412 P O Box 170 170 Royal Society NZ fees 1,495 1,495 Student Conference Prizes 600 400 Student Travel Grants 800 1,100 Weather and Climate 2,685 0 Total Expenditure 8,846 6,710
Surplus of Income over Expenditure $8,966 $10,009
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Balance Sheet as at 31 July 2015
2015 2014 Accumulated Funds Balance 1 August 46,093 36,084 Surplus Income over Expenditure 8,966 10,009 Balance 31 July $55,059 $46,093
Represented by: Petty Cash 0 225 Cheque Account 13,456 12,457 Student Conference Fund Account 0 3,327 Accrued Interest/Prepayment 1,758 386 Term Deposits 40,593 30,038 55,807 46,433 Less Accounts Payable 748 340 $55,059 $46,093
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 8 Notes to the Financial Statements The Meteorological Society of New Zealand is an independent group of weather enthusiasts whose aim is to encourage an interest in the atmosphere, weather and climate as related to the New Zealand region.
Statement of General Accounting Policies These inancial statements have been prepared using the historical cost method. Accrual ac- counting has been used except as noted below, and reliance has been placed on the Society being a going concern.
Statement of Particular Accounting Policies Subscription receipts have been accounted for on a cash basis. These inancial statements were prepared on a Goods and Services Tax (GST) inclusive basis. The conference surplus is accounted for on a cash basis. Interest income includes accrued interest on the term deposits as at balance date.
Changes in Accounting Policies There have been no changes in accounting policies. All accounting policies have been applied on bases consistent with the previous year.
Income Tax The Society is registered as a charitable entity so no income tax is payable. Further to Andrew’s report, James noted that the petty cash and student conference fund have been closed as discussed at a previous meeting. [By email, Andrew added that the W&C ex- penses for the previous year are zero because we didn’t publish a journal issue in that inan- cial year]. Motion that “ The inancial report be accepted as a true and accurate record ” proposed by Mike Revell/seconded by Michael Martens – carried.
7. Appointment of Auditor The Chair proposed that the same auditor be appointed. There were no objections.
8. Subscription rate. The Chair proposed that the rates remain the same. There were no objections.
9. Election of Of icers Nominations for 2016 Committee of the Meteorological Society of NZ were read by the Chair. President – Daniel Kingston Immediate Past President – Sam Dean Secretary - Katrina Richards Circulation Manager – Sylvia Nichol Treasurer - Andrew Tait Website Liaison – Stefanie Kremser Newsletter Editor - Bob McDavitt Journal Editor – Jennifer Salmond Auckland VP – Nava Fedaeff Hamilton VP – Tim Gunn Wellington VP James Renwick Christchurch VP Adrian MacDonald Dunedin VP Daniel Kingston General Committee – Michael Martens, Charles Pearson, Mike Revell Note: The work of the committee is supported by two paid roles: Peter Scholtens (Auditor) and Eddie Wealthall (web). James Lunny is the only resignation from the existing committee.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 9 There being no further nominations from the loor, those people standing were declared elected.
10. Other Matters. 10.1: Guidelines for the Kidson Medal Report submitted by Sam Dean, red by James Renwick. Rules for the consideration and awarding of the Kidson Medal of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand. Following consultation there are a number of principles that have guided the formation of these rules The irst principle is that all members are eligible for all the bene its of membership, re- gardless of their position in the organisation. The second principle is that no-one will bene it over and above any other member by vir- tue of any position they hold in the organisation. The third principle is that, where a potential con lict rises between points 1 and 2, all in- terests must be declared and a completely fair and disinterested process must be put in place. In regards to point 3, transparency of process is very important so once rules have been agreed they should be openly available and easily accessible. Rules: A call for nominations for the Kidson medal shall be made by the Executive Committee of the Society every second year. If an award is not made in a year where nominations were called for, the Executive Committee may put out a call in the following year at the discretion of the President. The President of the Society cannot be nominated, or nominate an individual for the Kidson medal while serving their two year term as President. The President takes on this responsibil- ity as the only role on the Executive Committee with a two year limit of service. A nominee is not required to be a member of the Society, but any nominator must be a mem- ber. Any member of the Society, except for the President, may make any number of nomina- tions. After the closing date for nominations the President will form a Sub-committee composed of the President and two other members of the Society. These members may or may not include members of the Executive Committee, but cannot include any member who made a nomina- tion or was nominated. The Sub-committee will undertake an initial review of all the nominations and corresponding papers. For all nominations considered to be of appropriate quality the Sub-committee will seek two international peer reviews for each nomination. The Sub-committee will prepare a report for the Executive Committee stating their recom- mendation on whether to award a Kidson medal and the justi ication. Only one Kidson medal may be awarded in any year. The report will include discussion of all unsuccessful nomina- tions. The recommendation should be based primarily on the result of the two international reviews received and based on the criteria published on the website and included in the call for nominations. A recommendation requires only a majority decision of the three person Sub -committee. The three members of the Sub-committee are expected to declare and record any con licts of interest they might consider relevant as part of their report and recommendation to the Executive Committee. The Executive Committee will review the recommendation of the Sub-committee at a special meeting. Any member of the Executive Committee who made a nomination, or was nominated, will not participate in this meeting. The rati ication of the recommendation by the Executive Committee is only intended as a check on correct process. It is not necessary that the commit- tee be familiar with the scienti ic paper. They should read the report of the Sub-committee and consider the international reviews. A vote of the Executive Committee will be held to ac-
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 10 cept or reject the recommendation of the Sub-committee decided by majority. The Executive Committee cannot vote to award a medal to someone, when that is contradictory to the rec- ommendation of the Sub-committee. In that situation the Executive Committee can instead re- quire the President to convene a new Sub-committee to reconsider the recommendation. The new Sub-committee would proceed under the same rules already outlined. It is not possible to consider all eventualities with these rules. The President has responsibility for the interpretation of the intention of these rules. The rules should be improved to reflect experience gained but can only be modified by a quorum of members at the Annual General Meeting and shall be publicly available on the Society’s website at all times.
There was a short discussion. James Lunny pointed out that the only major difference is that the President is explicitly disallowed. Katrina Richards clari ied that Kidson rules are not in the Constitution, it stands as a separate document. The Chair proposed we accept the document and the rules therein, and there were no objec- tions.
10.2 Proposal to Amend Constitution Tabled by committee, submitted by Andrew Tait (Treasurer), read by James Lunny. As per Constitutional requirements, notice of this proposed change has been given and it has been proposed by two members – Andrew Tait and Daniel Kingston. A two-thirds majority of votes of members present at the AGM is required to pass the change.
Proposal: To amend Sections 13 and 14 of the constitution, thus: Current text: 13. Funds Each inancial period (one year) shall close on 31 July. At the close of such a period a duly au- dited statement of accounts and balance sheet shall be distributed to members prior to the next Annual General Meeting of the Society which will take place in the subsequent four months as provided in 6. The Society's funds shall be deposited in bank accounts opened in the name of the society and the accounts shall be operated by the signatures of any two of the President, the Secretary, the Treasurer, and the Circulation Manager. 14. Auditor The Committee at the irst meeting of each inancial year following the Annual General Meet- ing shall appoint an Auditor for the coming year. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Proposed changed text (with changes highlighted in bold): 13. Funds Each inancial period (one year) shall close on 31 July. At the close of such a period a duly au- dited or reviewed statement of accounts and balance sheet shall be distributed to members prior to the next Annual General Meeting of the Society which will take place in the subse- quent four months as provided in 6. The Society's funds shall be deposited in bank accounts opened in the name of the society and the accounts shall be operated by the signatures of any two of the President, the Secretary, the Treasurer, and the Circulation Manager. 14. Auditor/Reviewer The Committee at the irst meeting of each inancial year following the Annual General Meet- ing shall appoint an Auditor or Reviewer for the coming year. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Rationale: Many charitable societies like our own have changed their constitution so that they do not have to have a full inancial audit performed on their accounts each year. Such audits are ex- pensive and are no longer mandatory. A inancial review is less onerous on the part of the reviewer, does not carry with it the same
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 11 burden of proof, and as a result is a much reduced cost.
What is the difference between audit and review? Audit Review
A reasonable or high level of assurance Limited assurance about whether the about whether the financial statements financial statements as a whole are free Level of as- as a whole are free from material errors from material errors or fraud. Limited surance or fraud. Reasonable or high assurance assurance is less than reasonable assur- is not absolute assurance. ance.
Independent Review Report Independent Auditor’s Report Conclusion is expressed in a negative Opinion is expressed in a positive form, Report pro- form, e.g. “Nothing has come to our at- e.g. “The financial statements are free vided tention that causes us to believe that the from material misstatement”. financial statements are not free from
material misstatement”.
Procedures normally involve detailed tests of accounting records using tech- Nature of niques such as inspection, observation, Procedures are primarily based procedures confirmation, recalculation and re- on inquiry and analytical review. performance, as well as inquiry and ana-
lytical review.
Both an audit and a review require inancial statements to be prepared in full compliance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). Neither an audit nor a review will guarantee complete accuracy of inancial statements, nor detect fraud. ______A brief discussion followed. Voting to accept these changes was by a showing of hands. The re- sult was unanimously in favour.
10.3 Uploading of Journals and Papers Mike Revell reported that Errol Lewthwaite’s very rough estimate of processing time is ¾ hour per paper or article. So far this is approximately 160 hours or 21 full -time days. We wish to record a vote of thanks to Errol for all the work he has done.
10.4 Dual-signatory cheques versus online banking Michael Martens asked if we should change to online banking instead of using dual-signatory cheques, as were used for the Raglan Conference. The Chair said that this has been looked at by the committee and the Treasurer, but it is not straightforward. Michael pointed out that cheques may eventually not be accepted. Katrina Richards said it is being considered on the committee’s long term plans. Meeting closed at 6:30pm. The next AGM is expected to be in Wellington, November 2016.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 12
Spring 2015 Most of New Zealand experienced a dry spring this year and strong El Niño conditions persisted in the Tropical Pacific. Overview Overall, the season was characterised by mean sea level pressures that were higher than normal over Australia and the Tasman Sea, while lower pressures than normal occurred to the south-east of New Zealand. This pressure pattern resulted in a south-westerly airflow anomaly over much of the coun- try, which is a characteristic of El Niño during spring. Rainfall Rainfall was well below normal (< 50%) in Nelson and Marlborough, and below normal (50-79%) in eastern and inland parts of the South Island. In addition, southern, western, central and northern parts of the North Island received below normal rainfall. In contrast, rainfall was above normal (120 -149%) or well above normal (> 149%) in Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay. Temperature Spring temperatures were near average (-0.50°C to + 0.50°C) for most of the country. The exception was parts of western Waikato, southern Hawke’s Bay, Wairarapa, the inland Canterbury Plains and Stewart Island where temperatures were below average (-1.20°C to -0.51°C). Soil moisture As of 1 December 2015, soil moisture levels were below normal for the time of year for extensive are- as of New Zealand. In particular, soil moisture levels were much lower than normal in eastern and northern parts of the South Island, and southern, central, western and northern parts of the North Island. Soil moisture levels were above normal in Gisborne, southern Fiordland and Stewart Island. Sunshine Spring sunshine was abundant for southern, eastern, central and northern areas of the South Island, and parts of the central North Island, Bay of Plenty and Northland where sunshine totals were typi- cally above normal (110-125%).
Rainfall Rainfall was well below normal (< 50% of the spring normal) in Nelson and Marlborough, and below normal (50-79% of the spring normal) in most remaining areas of the South Island. The exceptions were coastal areas of Southland and Otago (south of Oamaru), where rainfall was near normal (within 20% of the spring normal). In the North Island, rainfall was typically below normal in Wel- lington, Wairarapa, Manawatu-Whanganui, Taranaki, southern and central Waikato and northern Northland. In contrast, rainfall was above normal (120-149% of the spring normal) or well above normal (> 149% of the spring normal) in Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay. This was likely to be as a re- sult of two heavy rain events which occurred in these re.g.ions around mid-September and early- November. Remaining areas of the North Island typically received near average rainfall for the sea- son. Soil moisture Soil moisture levels were near normal for many parts of the country in early spring. The notable ex- ceptions were parts of coastal Hurunui, South Canterbury and North Otago where soil moisture lev- els were below normal for the time of year. Due to the prevalence of south-westerlies during spring, which are typical of El Niño, soils in many eastern areas became increasingly dry as the season progressed. As of 1 December 2015, soil moisture levels were below normal for the time of year for extensive are- as of New Zealand, but especially for Canterbury, Nelson, Marlborough, Wellington, Wairarapa, Ta- ranaki, southern Waikato and Northland. Soil moisture levels were above normal in Gisborne,. Temperatures For the season as a whole, temperatures were near average (-0.50°C to + 0.50°C of the spring aver- age) across most of the country. The exception was parts of western Waikato, southern Hawke’s Bay, Wairarapa and the inland Can- terbury Plains where temperatures were below average (0.51°C to 1.20°C below the spring average). Despite mostly near average temperatures for spring overall, there was noticeable variability from month-to-month. Specifically, many parts of the country observed below average temperatures in September, and above average temperatures (0.51°C to 1.20°C above the spring average) in Octo- ber.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 13 The nation-wide average temperature in spring 2015 was 12.0°C (0.1°C below the 1981-2010 spring average from NIWA’s seven station temperature series which be.g.ins in 1909) (interim value). Sunshine It was a sunny spring for the Far North, inland Bay of Plenty, southern Waikato, Nelson, Marlbor- ough, Canterbury, Otago and Southland where sunshine totals were generally above normal (110- 125% of the spring normal). Remaining areas of New Zealand observed near normal spring sunshine totals (within 10% of the spring normal).
Highlights The highest temperature was 31.7°C, observed at Hastings on 26 November. The lowest temperature was -8.2°C, observed at Naseby Forest on 31 October. The highest 1-day rainfall was 291 mm, recorded at Milford Sound on 16 October. The highest wind gust was 172 km/hr, observed at Cape Turnagain on 5 October and South West Cape on 7 October. Of the six main centres in spring 2015, Auckland was the warmest, Dunedin was the coolest, Christ- church was the driest and sunniest, Hamilton was the wettest and Auckland was the cloudiest. Of the available, re.g.ularly reporting sunshine observation sites, the sunniest four locations so far in 2015 (1 January to 30 November) are: Blenheim (2519 hours), Whakatane (2476 hours), Appleby (2456 hours) and Lake Tekapo (2423 hours). For further information, please contact: Mr Chris Brandolino, Principal Scientist – Forecasting, NIWA National Climate Centre
NOTABLE WEATHER IN NEW ZEALAND: SPRING 2015 Seasonal forecasts before the season be.g.an were predicting an El Nino spring, with colder than nor- mal temperatures and unsettled conditions in western and southern areas. It turned out to be much more varied than that. September was definitely colder than average, but more airflows between south and east delivered wet weather to eastern areas of the North Island. October brought a change to westerly quarter flows, with warm temperatures at times in the east, but also some severe gales. Southerly winds brought below normal temperatures for the greater part of November, but westerly weather similar to that which predominated in October returned for the last week of the month.
SEPTEMBER 1st - Heavy rain in many northern and central areas. Some welcome rain in east of South Island, but little in the worst affected areas of North Canterbury. Several roads closed by flooding, including SH2 through the Karangahake Gorge near Waihi and SH23 between Hamilton and Raglan. A king tide combines with the heavy rain to flood and close Tamaki Drive in Auckland. Snow down to about 300m in inland Canterbury and 600m further north in Marlborough and Nelson. Takaka Hill Road SH60 closed by heavy snow at summit for a time, while Motueka records a high of only 8C. 2nd - Scattered thunderstorms and hail in north of North Island. Snow on southern South Island high country. 5th-7th - Very cold southwesterly flow, starting later on 5th and easing on 7th, bringing snow show- ers to low levels in Otago and Southland. Some snow also on Banks Peninsula hills, plus flurries on southeastern Wairarapa hills on 7th. Nugget Point reches only 4C on the 6th, with Dunedin and Balclutha rising to just 6C on the same day. (also on the 6th, Campbell Island's 0C maximum is a new record low for September) 8th - Vey cold start to the day in many places in wake of departed cold southwesterly flow, e.g. -7C minimum at Hanmer, -6C at Pukaki, and -2C in Napier. (a new September record there) 10th - Active cold front brings a strong cold southerly change to South Island. Thunderstorms and hail affect Canterbury, including parts of Christchurch, where temperature drop from 18C at 3.30pm to 8C an hour later. The winds bring down trees, causing power cuts to parts of the city and surrounds. Change later brings gales also to Marlborough, with gusts reaching 126 km/hr in Kaikou- ra and 122 km/hr at Cape Campbell. 11th - Cold, disturbed south to southwest covers NZ, with disturbance bringing thunder and hail in north of North Island. Snow showers on high country, plus flurries reported as low as 300m in cen- tral Taranaki for a time. 12th - Cold southerlies continue over North Island, with snow showers on eastern high country. 14th - Foggy morning in Auckland, disrupting flights at the airport. 15th - Warm afternoon in east of South Island, e.g. 23C maximum in Oamaru.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 14 16th - Warm in eastern areas, including a 25C maximum at Riccarton, Christchurch and 23C in Timaru. Unusually warm overnight in Otago and Southland, with Lumsden’ s 13C minimum a new high record for September. 18th-23rd - Unsettled period, including heavy rain and flooding in east of North Island. (see details below) 23rd/24th - Unseasonably warm on South Island West Coast, under foehn easterly flow. High maxi- mums include 20C in Westport (23rd), 19C at Milford Sound (23rd), and 18C at Secretary Island. (24th) 28th - Scattered thunderstorms with hail in the north of the North Island, due to a trough with very cold upper air.
OCTOBER 1st - Afternoon thunderstorms in parts of Otago and South Canterbury, including Dunedin. 3rd-7th- Northwesterly conditions with gales and high temperatures in eastern areas (see details be- low) 9th - Frosty start to the day in some areas under ridge following cool southwesterly flow the day be- fore. -1C minimum in Martinborough. 11th - Warm day in Nelson region under a foehn west to southwest flow. 26C maximum at Appleby. 16th - Heavy rain in Fiordland and Southland due to slow-moving front. 291mm recorded at Milford Sound, while Southland stations receive 30-45mm. Further north, another very warm day in eastern areas. 18th - Northwesterly gales again in many eastern areas of South Island, with some minor damage. 27C maximum in Kaikoura. Heavy overnight rain about central NZ. West to southwest flow in the far south, with some hail showers. 19th - Brief thunderstorm with hail sweeps over the Port Hills and southeastern Christchurch, due to disturbance in a cool southwesterly flow. 21st - Yet more northwesterly gales in east and south of South Island. Downed power-lines and trees cause problems in Gore. Small scrub fires triggered on Canterbury Plains. 22nd - Northwesterly gales in east of North Island, e.g. 106 km/hr gust in Dannevirke. 26th/27th - A few thunderstorms in central North Island and Bay of Plenty. Cold southerly change spreads over lower South Island from later on 26th and reaches central NZ next day, before dying out in afternoon. Light snow on South Island high country. 29th - Brief period of heavy rain about Kapiti Coast causes some surface flooding there. Heavy hail- storm reported near Kaikohe.
NOVEMBER 3rd - Clear skies and light winds in the far north overnight result in an unseasonably chilly start to the day in Kerikeri, which records a new record November minimum of only 3C. Trough and cold front crosses South Island during the day, bring a cold southerly change. 4th/5th - Low to east of East Cape maintains a cold southerly flow over northern and central NZ, with snow on the ranges. (settling as low as top of Desert Road for a time early morning of 4th) Un- seasonably low maximums in many areas, with new November records of 8C in Cheviot, 9C in Mas- terton, Martinborough, and Wellington Airport (all on 4th), and 11C in Gisborne (5th). Some heavy rain in Gisborne/Northern Hawkes Bay on 4th, e.g. 88mm in Wairoa. Late frosts in areas where it has cleared by the 5th, e.g. new November record minimums recorded at Christchurch Airport (- 2C), and Appleby. (-1C) 6th - Another chilly start to the day under clear skies in wake of cold southerlies. Turangi’s -3C and Hawera’s 0C are new record lows for November. 7th - Warm day in some inland South Island areas, e.g. 27C maximum in Hanmer. 9th - Warm day in north of North Island, e.g. 27C maximum in Te Puke. (equal to November record) 10th - Areas of morning fog in Timaru and surrounding areas. 11th/12th - Cold southerly flow spreads over NZ, with some snow about the mountains. Thunder- storms about north of North Island on 12th, plus some hail in Canterbury that morning. 13th/14th - Anticyclonic conditions over NZ in wake of southerly flow results in cold nights, bringing frosts to some areas, especially inland. Record low November minimums in Te Kuiti (0C on 13th), Warkworth, and Hick's Bay (2C in both places on 14th) 17th/18th - Cold southerlies again, with well below normal temperatures in eastern areas. 19th - Cold start to the day, with frosts in Otago and Southland. Tiwai Point's 0C minimum is a new November record. The Chatham Islands also records an unseasonable frost (frosts there aren't com- mon, even in winter), with a station recording a record November low of -2C, under clear skies in the
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 15 wake of a cold southerly flow. 21st/22nd - Thunderstorms in north of North Island. 24th/25th - Warm in eastern areas, e.g. 29C maximum in Timaru on the 24th. Very warm also in the north of the North Island on the 25th, under a light northerly flow. Whatawhata (near Hamilton) records a 27C maximum, a new November record high.. 26th/27th - Northwesterly storm, with heavy rain, gales, and high temperatures in the east. (see de- tails below) 28th - Humid northwesterly flow maintains unusually warm temperatures in northern and central parts of the North Island, with maximums in the mid-20s and overnight minimums in the high teens and low 20s. New record high November minimums are recorded in several places, e.g. 19C in Whangarei and 18C in Whitianga. Some heavy showers with hail in parts of Otago and Southland.
MAJOR EVENTS
18th-23rd September - Unsettled period, including heavy rain and flooding in east of North Island
Unsettled weather in eastern areas during this period culminated in in very heavy rain causing flood- ing in the Gisborne and northern Hawkes Bay areas.
A low moved east to lie southeast of the South Island later on the 18th and 19th, with several fronts crossing NZ and changing the airflow to cold southerly over the South Island in the afternoon and evening of the 18th and central NZ the next day. This change initially brought thunder and hail to some eastern areas, plus snow on the high country.
On the 20th, a low which has moved from sub-tropical latitudes, now moved to the north of the North Island. The flow over NZ tended cold southeasterly, with showers turning to rain in eastern areas from Canterbury northwards. The rain became heavy around Gisborne/East Cape during the evening, as a small secondary depression formed just to the east - Gisborne achieving a new record for the month with 104mm falling that night. (Tutira recorded 135mm during the same period) Snow continued on the Canterbury high country, settling as low as 300m around Hanmer (where the day's maximum was only 2C)
Meanwhile, on the same day thunderstorms and hail affected the north of the North Island, includ- ing western and northern parts of Auckland. Hailstones as big as 15mm were reported in Cam- bridge, with nearby Hamilton recording 59mm. Port Taharoa's maximum of only 10C was a new low for September.
From the 21st-23rd, a complex low pressure system remained slow moving just to the northeast of the North Island, with moist southeasterlies persisting over northern and central NZ. Heavy rain continued about Gisborne and Hawkes Bay, with 40mm recorded in Mahia on the 21st. Flooding and slips were widespread, especially from the Wairoa district northwards. Many roads were closed, in- cluding SH2 both the south and northwest of Gisborne. The city was isolated for a time. Schools were closed, while sewerage had to be released into city rivers to prevent it flowing back into properties. The rain was made more unpleasant as it combined with strong winds and low daytime temperatures - Wairoa recording a maximum of only 9C on the 21st.
Also on the 20th/21st, southeasterly gales lashed northern Taranaki, causing some property damage, as well as disrupting flights at New Plymouth Airport.
During the 23rd, while this weather system remained in place, it weakened enough to ease the rain in the east of the North Island, allowing recovery work to begin.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 16
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 17
MSL analyses for midnight NZST 18th September to noon NZST 23rd September in 12 hour steps are shown here.
3rd-7th October - Northwesterly conditions with gales and high temperatures in eastern areas
The weather patterns over NZ changed dramatically in early October, with disturbed westerly con- ditions becoming predominant. These systems brought some stormy weather with severe gales in places from the 3rd-7th, while temperatures became unseasonably warm in eastern areas in sharp contrast to the cold of September.
A westerly flow over the lower South Island on the 3rd turned strong northwesterly later in the day, reaching gale in the far south.
On the 4th, with deep low pressure to the south, a very strong west to northwest flow soon covered NZ ahead of a cold front. Severe northwesterly gales lashed areas of the South Island east of the main ranges. These winds were strong enough to down trees onto power-lines and cause significant other damage. Dust storms were also whipped up in several areas, while the winds also fanned many fires. New November record high gusts were recorded in Gore (122 km/hr) and Tara Hills. (107 km/ hr) About $680,000 in insurance claims were lodged as a result of damage from this storm.
Behind the cold front, a strong disturbed west to southwest flow spread over southern areas, with further severe gales about the south coast. However, the airflow eased overnight.
On the 5th/6th, high pressure over the north of the North Island, with a westerly flow over the South Island tending northwesterly on the 6th. This resulted in very warm temperatures in the east, with maximums reaching into the high 20s.
On the 7th, the northwesterlies became very strong again over southern and central NZ. While not as severe as the winds of the 4th, the gales aggravated the fires which flared up during the earlier winds. Cold fronts crossed the South Island during the day, eventually bringing a change to strong southwesterlies in the far south which sent the temperatures quickly plummeting by as much as 10C. These winds gusted as high as 172 km/hr at Southwest Cape, Stewart Island, a new November rec- ord. Further north, the northwesterlies eased at night.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 18
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 19
Mean sea-level analyses for noon NZDT 4 th October to midnight NZDT 7th October in 12 hour steps are shown here.
26th/27th November - Northwesterly storm, with heavy rain, gales, and high temperatures in the east
A strong unstable northwesterly flow over NZ result in the classic stormy weather associated with such systems over NZ - heavy rain about and west of the Southern Alps, severe gales in the east and about Cook Strait, as well as high temperatures in the east.
High pressure to the northeast of the North Island remained slow moving as a trough moved into the South Tasman Sea on the 26th, resulting in a northwesterly flow over the South Island becoming very strong. Severe gales be.g.an to affect the far south, with Manapouri gusting to 87 km/hr. These winds caused some minor property damage as well as fanning small fires. Further north, the winds reached gale in inland areas as far north as Marlborough, where a large forest fire flared up near Blenheim. High temperatures accompanied the winds, with a few places reaching to above 30C. Has- tings and Cheviot's 31C maximums were new November records (as was Kaikohe's 25C on the same day).
As the trough and fronts moved over NZ during the next day, the northwesterly flow strengthened even further over southern and central NZ. Severe northwesterly gales downed trees causing power cuts in many areas, as well as fanning more fires. In Wellington, several flights were cancelled at the airport, as were harbour ferry crossings. High gusts recorded included 170 km/hr at Puysegur Point (a new November record) and 137 km/hr at Mt Kaukau.
Temperatures were again much higher than normal in the north and east of the North Island, with maximums in the high 20s. Overnight minimums were high in Canterbury, with several new Novem- ber records broken. (e.g. 21C at Waiau and 20C in Lincoln. At the same, heavy rain fell about and west of the Southern Alps. 166mm was recorded at Mt Cook Village on the 26th, and 115mm at Ar- thurs Pass over both days.
However, during the day, the system weakened as it moved over the North Island, with a lighter westerly flow developing over the South Island. A brief southerly change spread up over the east of the South Island, with a few thunderstorms reported.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 20
Mean sea-level analyses for 1pm NZDT 26th November to 1am NZDT 28th November in 12 hour steps are shown here.
MONTHLY WEATHER NOTES FOR CHRISTCHURCH: SPRING 2015
SEPTEMBER More southerly winds than usual resulted in a colder than normal month. It was changeable with more rain than usual, though this was largely due to a few wet days. (1st and 19th/20th) The most notable event of the month was a thunderstorm with hail on the 10th, as the city was hit by a very strong southerly change. Snow fell on the hills of Banks Peninsula on the 6th/7th during a very cold southwesterly flow, but only a few brief showers reached Christchurch.
OCTOBER In contrast to September, westerly quarter flows predominated in October, with the month being much sunnier and drier than usual. There were some very warm days in northwesterly conditions; the winds reaching gale-force on the 4th which triggered several fires in rural areas near the city. However, the 27th-29th saw daytime temperatures significantly colder than normal, under a south- erly flow which also brought some snow to the inland high country. Most of the month's rain fell during this period. The only other weather of note was a squall which swept through the Port Hills and southeastern Christchurch early on the 19th, with some thunder and hail.
NOVEMBER For much of the month, a predominance of southerly winds brought colder than normal tempera- tures. These southerlies didn't bring much rain, so the monthly total was well below normal. Hail fell in the city early morning of the 12th. There were some particularly cold nights; indeed, the frost on the morning of the 5th was the heaviest recorded in Christchurch for November for over 60 years. From the 22nd, however, the weather pattern changed to warmer west or northwest flows, with the result that monthly temperatures ended up near normal.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 21 Three Pacific hurricanes make weather history MICHAEL MUSKAL: 1 September 2015 http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/71626461/three-pacific-hurricanes-make-weather-history
Three hurricanes near the Hawaiian islands in this NOAA GOES West satellite image. Three powerful Category 4 hurricanes churned in the central and eastern Pacific basins at the same time over the weekend, an event that is believed a meteorological first in the ocean region and anoth- er sign that the forces of El Nino are stirring up weather anomalies - and the jitters in Hawaii. Over the weekend, officials recorded three named hurricanes - Ignacio, Kilo and Jimena - and all were as strong as Category 4. Even though the storms are forecast to miss Hawaii, officials have had to gear up emergency measures as a precaution. 'THIS YEAR IS DIFFERENT' According to Chevalier, a meteorologist for the Honolulu-based Central Pacific Hurricane Centre, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the region averaged 16.6 named storms a year from 1981 to 2010. The largest number, 28, was recorded in 1992 and the fewest, eight, was in 1977 and 2010. So far, there have been 14 named storms in the region, and the hurricane season, which runs from mid-May to the end of November, is only about half over, he said. The forecast had been for 15 to 22 storms this year, he said. "This year, we have had a very active hurricane season and the main reason is El Nino," he ex- plained. The El Nino effect occurs when sea water has a warmer than average temperature. "When the hurricanes reach the Hawaiian Islands, the sea surface temperatures are normally rela- tively cooler, so the storms lose some power. This year is differ- ent (because of El Nino) and the hurricanes have maintained their intensity as they move north." Many storms brush the islands or cause enough disturbance in the ocean to have an effect, Chevalier said. Only four storms have made landfall in Hawaii since 1949; two caused major damage but none since 1992. (Abridged).
Wettest Manawatu winter in recorded history 1 September 2015 KENDALL HUTT http://www.stuff.co.nz/manawatu-standard/news/71630824/manawatu-in-for- unsettled-spring
Murray Wilson/ Fairfax NZ: Tuesday's rain on the first day of spring mirrors what winter had in store for the region. Winter has just ended and it was the wettest in Palmerston North's recorded history. MetService meteorologist Georgina Griffiths said the city's rainfall during the three winter months equated to a two-third rise, or 166 per cent, above normal. The figure is the highest
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 22 recorded at Palmerston North Airport, dating back to when records began 72 years ago. Palmerston North also experienced an elevated frequency in frosts, with 12 recorded. The number of frosts was "unusually high" for the city, Griffiths said.(Abridged)
North battens down hatches 1 September 1 2015 h p://www.stuff.co.nz/na onal/71582244/North-ba ens-down-hatches-as-heavy-rain-wind-approach Heavy rain is closing roads in Waikato a er a storm lashing New Zealand le widespread flooding in Auckland. Downpours have been hammering the North Island, the top of the South and the West Coast.
Traffic in the Karangahake Gorge was reduced to one lane due to a slip. State Highway 2 in Waikato's Karan- gahake Gorge, reduced to one lane, will be closed this afternoon due to rising flood levels. Heavy rain has flooded a bridge in Riverhead, north of Auckland. (Abridged)
AMANDA WILLIAMS : An unsched- uled stop due to floodwaters in Wainui, north of Auckland.
Wet wild weather leaves widespread flooding in Auckland, Waikato 1 September 2015 Stuff http://i.stuff.co.nz/national/71582244/Wet-wild- weather-leaves-widespread-flooding-in-Auckland- Waikato
MAUI JORGENSON: Flooding on Beachcroft Rd in the Auckland suburb of Onehunga.
Heavy rain is closing roads in Waika- to after a storm lashing New Zealand left widespread flooding in Auckland. Downpours have been hammering the North Island, the top of the South and the West Coast.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 23
SIMON CASWELL: Flooding in Greenlane, Auckland, caused by heavy rain .
JASON DORDAY/FAIRFAX MEDIA: A 4WD makes a splash as it drives through flooding at the bot- tom of Howe Street in Auckland city.
BEVAN READ/ FAIRFAX NZ: Flooding on Auckland's Tamaki Drive saw it temporarily closed to traf- fic. Flooding in Auckland had briefly closed Tamaki Dr between Ngapipi Rd and the Strand. All ferry services have been cancelled and replaced with buses. Heavy rain in the Kaimai Ranges and western Bay of Plenty is still at warning level but is expected to ease in the afternoon. Between 60-90mm of rain is expected between 9am and 3pm. SNOW, WINDSTORMS In the South Island, the Nelson region experienced strong gusts overnight, with wind up to 111km per hour, MetService meteorologist Tom Adams says. Gusts are expected to reach 130kmh this morning with the worst areas affected being west of Motue- ka and around Farewell Spit. "Those winds gusts are pretty strong. they can be pretty damaging," he said.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 24 Snow and severe windstorms are expected to lash western parts of the South Island and the main di- vide. According to the Christchurch Transport Operations Centre, snow is falling on South Island Alpine passes but all roads remain open. It recommends carrying chains on all passes as conditions can change quickly. (Abridged) - PAUL EASTON, HENRY COOKE, MYLES HUME AND AARON LEAMAN
Wild weather brings chaos - and it's not over Wednesday Sep 2, 2015 http://www.nzherald.co.nz/bay-of-plenty-times/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503343&objectid=11506614 The Western Bay of Plenty was bat- tered by wild weather yesterday which tore roofs from houses and flooded parts of State Highway 2 - and more rain is expected. The drenching of rain swelled the Ohinemuri River to breaking point in the Karangahake Gorge. The gorge had already been closed to one lane where a slip had fallen earlier in the day.
The Owharoa Falls. Photo/Melanie Camoin
Communications manager Natalie Dixon said the water level of the Ohinemuri River had risen to with- in half a metre from the road by 1pm. MetService meteorologist Emma Blades said a lot more heavy rain was expected to fall in the Tauranga area this week, as a new low made its way across the North Island.
"We are looking at a fairly unset- tled start to the month in terms of rainfall." (Abridged)
The Ohinemuri River got very high yesterday.
MetService profit drops Wednesday September 2, 2015 Tina Morrison http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/metservice-2015-profit-drops-delays-inking-new-mot- contract-b-178162
MetService chief executive Peter Lennox
Meteorological Service of New Zealand's annual profit dropped by almost two thirds because of delays in finalising a new deal with the Ministry of Transport, its largest contract. The state-owned, Wellington-based weather bureau's net profit slumped to $910,000 in the 12 months ended June 30, from $2.6 million a year earlier, as revenue was little changed at $46 mil- lion from $45.7 million. Excluding the MoT contract, annual commercial revenue increased 7.2%, it says. The MoT's $18.6 million annual contract expired on June 30, 2013. The service extends beyond New Zealand boundaries down to the Ross Sea ice shelf and up to
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 25 the Pacific Islands. Pending agreement on a new deal, the contract was topped up in the 2014 year by an extra $1.4 mil- lion, but not in the 2015 year. A new MoT contract, for an additional $15.9 million over the next four years, wasn't inked until the start of the new financial year on July 1. Some of the extra funds are earmarked for an updated meteorological forecasting system and a new off-site data back-up in Auckland. The new contract means MetService will increase its MoT funding by $2.6 million to $21.2 million in 2016, with an extra $3.3 million slated for 2017, $4.7 million in 2018 and $5.19 million in 2019, ac- cording to government Budget documents. The company said today it won't pay a dividend for the 2015 financial year, after paying a $2.3 mil- lion dividend for the 2014 year, 39.7 percent of its operating profit. It had previously forecast a pay- out ratio of 10 percent in 2015, 9.8 percent in 2016, and 22 percent in 2017. Its policy is to distribute 35 percent of operating cash flow as dividends. MetService wants to reduce reliance on the MoT contract by winning more sales outside New Zea- land. To enable investment in international growth markets, the company says it will pay partial div- idends in the 2015 and 2016 financial years, and step up the payment in its 2017 year. It didn't specify a final dividend in its latest earnings announcement, although it has previously fore- cast a payout ratio of 10% in 2015, 9.8% in 2016, and 22% in 2017. Its policy is to distribute 35% of operating cashflow as dividends. The company said its expenses rose 7.9% in the year through June, reflecting investment in growth opportunities, as well as depreciation and the need to maintain key services for New Zealand public safety.
Farmers fear return to 'desert' condi ons 4 September 2015 h p://www.radionz.co.nz/ news/rural/283312/farmers- fear-return-to-'desert'- condi ons A farmer in the heart of the North Canterbury drought says a prolonged dry spell brought on by El Niño will put already struggling farmers in dire straits.
Dry conditions in mid-Canterbury in January 2015: Photo: Jeremy Talbot
Vince Daily, who runs a 160- hectare cropping farm in Che- viot, said the NIWA weather station on his farm showed the soil moisture level was at 30 percent, rather than the normal 100 per- cent it is at at this time of year. Mr Daily said any drought caused by El Niño would just be a continuation of the current conditions. Meanwhile, NIWA has released its climate summary for winter, which showed rainfall was below normal or well below normal in eastern parts of both islands. In contrast, rainfall was plentiful for many western areas of New Zealand. NIWA said winter temperatures were near average across most of the country. (Abridged)
Weather: South braces snow, gales Saturday 5 Sep 2015 http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/weather-south-braces-snow-gales-2015090512#axzz3uwc9fJVx A very cold southwesterly flow is expected to bring snow showers to sea level over the lower South Is- land from tonight through to Monday, the MetService says.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 26
Don't put the winter woollies away yet because snowy condi ons are again predicted for parts of the lower South Island.
The heaviest falls are expected about eastern Southland and Clutha, where 25cm to 30cm could accumulate in a 24 -hour period above 300m. The combina on of strong southwest- erlies and snow showers are likely to bring chilly condi ons, pu ng vulnerable livestock at risk, MetService says. Meteorologist Tom Adams says it will be a rough ride for farmers. "We can expect some quite hard frosts," he says. "So if you combine that with the wind chill from the southerly gales, it definitely could be quite bad for farmers, and par cularly those in the high country." Weatherman Richard Green says a series of lingering lows are set to bring the chilly temperatures to- morrow. "Down south we could be looking at snow to basically sea level, and then in central and north- ern parts of the country it's just the wind-chill factor. So even if the temperature, let's say, might be nine degrees in Auckland, it'll feel more like three or four." The warnings come as lambs frolic on pastures throughout the country and as prepara ons are under way for the "Daffodil Express" steam train ride to the Carterton Daffodil Fes val north of Wellington next weekend. (Abridged)
Late spring snowfalls in Dunedin, south Otago 6 September 2015 h p://www.radionz.co.nz/news/ na onal/283386/late-spring-snowfalls-in- dunedin,-south-otago MetService says a cold snap that hit overnight has brought blizzard- like condi ons.
Snow in Dunedin: Photo: Twitter/ Dunedin City Council
A severe weather watch is in place for Fiordland, Southland, Otago and Canterbury for strong southwesterlies and snow down to sea level. Snow has been falling in south Otago and in Dunedin's hill suburbs. The combination of strong southwesterlies and snow showers was likely to bring blizzard conditions, putting livestock at risk and possibly disrupting transport. The weather watch also warned of the possibility of severe gales in coastal Otago and Banks Peninsu- la, from midday on Sunday until late Monday morning. Meteorologist Ciaran Deelin said Southland and Otago would be the worst hit, and farmers there had been preparing for the bad weather. Snow was expected for most alpine passes including the North Island's Desert Road until late Sunday evening. Motorists are advised to check conditions and carry chains.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 27 Roger Hanson: Unlocking the El Nino and La Nina weather pa erns 10 September 10 2015 ROGER HANSON: h p://www.stuff.co.nz/science/71922294/roger-hanson-unlocking-the-el-nino-and-la-nina-weather-pa erns
Andy Jackson: The west of New Zealand is wetter during El Nino years.
The gases that comprise the Earth's at- mosphere are imprisoned by the pull of Earth's gravitational field. Seventy five per cent of the mass of the atmosphere is in the region closest to the Earth's surface called the troposphere, which extends to a height of about 17km. Nearly all of the Earth's weather occurs in the troposphere. Compression of the air due to its weight pressing down onto the Earth's surface is the reason the tem- perature increases inversely with height above the surface. The tilt of the spin of the Earth means that various locations on its surface receive different amounts of solar radiation, depending on their latitude, the time of day and the time of year. This explains the temperature gap between the poles and equator. In addition, the amount of heat absorbed and retained is different for land masses than for oceans. These effects, the tilt and spinning of a sphere of fluids - oceans and atmosphere - subjected to differ- ent amounts of solar radiation, combine to produce pressure and temperature gradients in the at- mosphere responsible for the movement of air. The Earth's weather produces cycles - summer and winter, drought and monsoon, but it is a chaotic system, often making weather forecasting challenging and, accurate long-term forecasting impossi- ble. Despite this chaos, there are basic large scale year to year atmospheric circulations. Broadly speak- ing, warm air rises from the equatorial regions moves to mid latitudes, cools and sinks. When the spin of the Earth is imposed on this flow, large scale atmospheric circulations are set up. One of these is called the Walker Circulation, named after Gilbert Walker (1868-1958), a Cambridge University physicist who in 1904 became director-general of observatories in India. After studying global weather patterns he noted regular changes in atmospheric pressure (called oscillations) in the tropical regions of the oceans caused by differences in heat distribution between the sea and land. Walker Circulation specifically refers to the movement of air along circles of latitude, the air moves west to east or vice-versa, rises, cools and sinks in a large scale parcel of closed circulation. In the southern hemisphere, the effects of the Walker Circulation are called the Southern Oscillation and refers to variations in temperature of the surface water in the tropical eastern Pacific off the coast of South America. Warming in this region is referred to as El Nino and cooling as La Nina. The normal Walker Circulation in the southern hemisphere occurs when there is high atmospheric pressure in the eastern Pacific and low pressure in the western Pacific. This pressure difference gen- erates surface winds which move from the east to the west. The moist warm air in the west rises into the atmosphere and circulates back to the cooler eastern Pacific. During an El Nino year this circulation is weakened and is first registered by a rise in surface air pressure at Darwin Australia and a lowering of air pressure at Tahiti and Lima, Peru. In the El Nino cycle, the surface water temperature in the eastern Pacific is warmer than usual, which causes the air above it to rise and expand, so the air pressure lowers. Lower air pressure in the eastern Pacific draws higher pressure air from the west, generating winds which travel west to east across New Zealand and across the Pacific. The west of New Zealand is wetter during El Nino years. The warmer water in the eastern Pacific is due to a decline in the influence of the cold nutrient-rich Humboldt current from the south. In these conditions the water flow is dominated by the warm nutrient-poor Equatorial current. For this reason, during these El Nino conditions, the marine food chain in the eastern Pacific can be severely affected. Often, but not always, El Nino conditions deliver more southerly winds over New Zealand. The opposite occurs in the La Nina cycle. Here the eastern Pacific cools as up-welling flows from the
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 28 strong, cold, nutrient-rich Humboldt current dominate. The cool air means the air molecules fall earthwards and the air pressure rises; this generates an east to west pressure gradient delivering east to west wind flows over New Zealand. The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) in New Zealand confirm that an El Nino event is currently underway and their seasonal outlook forecasts conditions consistent with the El Nino cycle, although they don't say how long it will last. Research continues to try to identify precisely how El Nino and La Nina cycles are generated and how they are affected by climate change.
Flooding cuts off Te Karaka in Gisborne overnight 21 September 2015 h p://www.radionz.co.nz/ news/regional/284803/flooding -cuts-off-te-karaka-overnight
Heavy flooding in Gis- borne:Photo: RNZ/Murray Rob- ertson
The town of Te Karaka in the Gisborne region will be cut off un l tomorrow morning, Civil Defence says. The region has been hit by flooding due to heavy rain, forcing the closure of rural roads, schools and inunda ng the basements of houses near the Waimata River. Gisborne Civil Defence controller Peter Higgs said Te Karaka was cut off on both sides with the closure of State Highway 2, which would remain closed between Gisborne and Opotoki overnight. He said the Gladstone Road bridge in Gisborne was also out of ac on. "We've got a digger working on it to try and remove the debris that's jammed underneath. There's a lot of debris held up against the piers. It's also a bridge that carries power, gas, sewage, water so it's quite a crucial lifelines bridge." Gisborne has had 150 mms of rain in 24 hours and the hills behind 200 mms, swelling the Taruheru and Waimata rivers to levels some residents say they have not seen before.
Flooding at Ngatapa.:Photo: Supplied / Tanya Hawthorne Some city residents along the banks of the Waimata River that flows through part of the city had put sand bags in place at their properties.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 29 Long, hot summer on the way Tue, 22 Sep 2015 http://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/356728/long-hot-summer-way
A long hot summer is coming, and while that's good news for barbe- cues and backyard cricket, farmers and rural firefighters are prepar- ing to battle drought and wildfires. Forecasters predict this summer's El Nino weather pattern will be one of the top three or four driest on New Zealand record. The previous three strongest El Ninos - 1972/73, 1982/83 and 1997/98 - all resulted in droughts. National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) is forecasting that this summer could be just as bad. "We think that this El Nino - and it's already very strong - has a distinct possibility of being a top three, top four El Nino,'' said Niwa forecaster Chris Brandolino. While Niwa won't go as far as predicting drought, they say there is "an elevated risk'' of drought. Rural firefighters and farmers are now being told to prepare for the worst. (Abridged)
Rain in eastern New Zealand "a game changer" Thu, 24/09/2015 - http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/rain-eastern-new-zealand-a-game-changer As many forecasters and news outlets zero in on the negative side of the rain WeatherWatch.co.nz is being told by farmers across the country that the recent rains have been fantastic - and even as far south as North Canterbury, which has missed nearly every significant rain event this year...until this week. Head weather analyst Philip Duncan says across this year WeatherWatch.co.nz has been saying peo- ple should avoid the sensational headlines about El Nino because New Zealand's weather pattern is almost always chaotic and changeable - meaning even with all the talk of the worst drought since the 90s we are actually looking at a wet start to spring. "El Nino certainly encourages droughts and drier than usual weather patterns for our east coast and inland, however it's important to not lose sight of the fact we are two small mountainous islands be- tween the roaring 40s and the sub-tropics - anything can happen". But WeatherWatch.co.nz says the current easterly flow around New Zealand is a bit unusual for late September, especially in an El Nino September. "In other words, this wet easterly is the odd one out - so a drier, westerly, pattern should return in October. But for while, many farmers can perhaps rest a bit easier knowing there's a lot more moisture in the ground and water tanks heading in to our driest half of the year". Wednesday was the spring equinox - meaning New Zealand is now sliding into Summer with days longer than nights from now on. (Abridged)
Briton and American killed during lake kayaking trip in New Zealand
26 Sep h p://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/26/briton-dies-during-kayaking-trip-on-lake-in-new-zealand
A group of kayakers were hit by bad weather on Lake Tekapo
New Zealand police inspector, Dave Gas- kin, says strong wind caused kayaks to cap- size on Lake Tekapo, causing the deaths of two international stu- dents
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 30 A British adventure tourist was one of two men killed in a freak storm while kayaking on a New Zea- land lake, police said. Nine survivors were treated for hypothermia after spending up to an hour in the freezing waters, with some swimming to a nearby island before being rescued. (Abridged) Press Association and Agence France-Presse contributed to this report
Daylight saving marks an increase in ultraviolet rays Monday, 28 September 2015, http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC1509/S00089/ daylight-saving-marks-an-increase-in-ultraviolet- rays.htm
Considering the weather in eastern parts of the country in the past week, it might be hard to believe that this is the time of year we get an increase in sunshine hours. Nevertheless, day- light savings marks the time of year when sunshine hours and tempera- tures start to rise rapidly. "Although spring weather can be fickle, we see a large increase in the hours of bright sunshine at this time of year," said MetService Meteorologist Georgina Griffiths. “The current El Nino means a cooler than usual spring is on the cards for all regions of New Zealand," noted Griffiths. "But regardless of the temperature, the days get longer and the hours of sunshine increase most rapidly at this time of year." Although our temperatures are still quite low, the Health Promotion Agency is advising that UV is already strong enough to cause sunburn if we don't use sun protection. Sunburn is a big concern be- cause it's linked to skin cancer and New Zealand has one of the highest rates of melanoma in the world. SunSmart advise us to use their Sun Protection Alerts which give specific regional times to protect skin and eyes and to "Slip, Slop, Slap and Wrap - slip on a shirt or into the shade, slop on plenty of broad-spectrum sunscreen of at least SPF30+, slap on a hat and wrap on a pair of wrap- around sunglasses". At the start of spring in Auckland there are 5.1 hours of bright sunshine per day, on average, com- pared to 6.4 hours at the end of spring. In Wellington we start spring with 5.4 hours of bright sun- shine per day, on average, compared to 7.0 hours at the end of spring. Further south in Christ- church, we start spring on 5.7 hours of bright sunshine per day, on average, compared to 7.5 hours at the end of spring, a significant difference. (Abridged)
Spring westerlies for Hawke's Bay 30 Sep 2015 Hawkes Bay Today http://www.hawkesbay.co.nz/general/16688-spring-westerlies-for-hawke-s-bay.html Weather patterns over New Zealand are set to change gear rather sharply as we start October," said MetService Meteorologist Georgina Griffiths. "We haven't yet seen the typical westerly gales that start spring - but that's about to change. We expect more westerly winds than usual over the country during October." After an unusually cold September, eastern regions of New Zealand should finally enjoy some spring -like temperatures in the westerlies. "October temperatures are predicted to be average to above av- erage in the east of both Islands. This will be a welcome change." In comparison, temperatures are forecast to be below average for western areas of the country in October. "The rainfall patterns over the country are also set for a rapid switch as we enter October," Griffiths stated. "Rainfall for the west and south of the South Island is likely to return to more normal levels in October, while the remainder of the country is predicted to see a drier than normal month". (Abridged) ++++++++++++=+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 31 October weather: the great divide 1 October 2015 http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/285748/october-weather-the-great-divide A very chilly September has had a happy ending, with sunny spells for Auckland, Northland and the Hawke's Bay - but what's in the pipeline for October? New Zealand is set to be a country of two halves, says the MetService, with El Nino's impact making the west of the country wet and the east side dry. That divide will persist throughout the country, with the Bay of Islands drier than Northland's west coast, continuing right the way down to the bottom of the South Island. By and large, those divisions will run along mountain ranges: the Southern Alps will split the wet west (including the already rather damp West Coast) from the dry east. In the North Island, a split across the Central Plateau will leave the Hawke's Bay high and dry, while New Plymouth gets its feet wet.And the east-west split will extend into the country's temperatures: it'll be decidedly spring-like in the eastern regions of New Zealand, while jumpers will still required in the west, where temperatures will remain below average. El Nino's effect will continue to be felt, but while it has reached very strong levels in the Pacific Ocean - the strongest since 1997 - the larger impact on mainland New Zealand remains to be seen. New Zealanders will be reaching for their jumpers as well as their jandals, as changeable weather persists to the end of the year. (Abridged)
South Canterbury residents s ll without power following storms NATASHA THYNE 5 October 2015 h p://www.stuff.co.nz/ maru-herald/news/72687602/South-Canterbury-residents-s ll-without-power-following-storms Nikki Adams said Twizel experienced the "most amazing winds and dust storm" on Sunday. The wind died off in the a ernoon and was replaced by a "loud as" thunderstorm. Residents in Waimate and Mackenzie District areas s ll had no power on Monday morning following the strong wind storm over the weekend.
NIKKI ADAMS The winds whip up a dust storm in Twizel.
MetService severe weather watches and warnings were still in place for central and Southern parts of New Zealand: Canter- bury was forecast to have severe northwest gales gusting 140kmh or possibly more in exposed places, and especially the high country.
Hundreds without power a er 'worst wind damage in 20 years' 5 October 2015 MYTCHALL BRANSGROVE/FAIRFAX NZ h p://www.stuff.co.nz/na onal/72686900/blackouts-as-more-wind-to-hit-country Hundreds of homes remain without power a er wild winds wreaked havoc across the South Island, downing electricity lines and fanning dozens of fires. PowerNet chief exec- u ve Jason Franklin said he believed the dam- age caused to the network was the worst Southland and Otago had seen in 20 years.
Gore District Council: A tree at the old Gore hospital blew down across Wigan St on Sunday night taking out a boat and a truck.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 32 Strong winds in Christchurch. Meteorologist Emma Blades said northerly and northwest gusts peaked overnight at 113kmh at the Rimutaka summit, 107kmh at Mt Kaukau above Wellington, and 98kmh in the Wellington suburb of Kelburn. Cape Turnagain, near the Manawatu-Hawke's Bay boundary, was one of the windiest spots in New Zea- land and had one gust reach 172kmh late on Sun- day. Vicious winds have wreaked havoc, blowing a tour- ist off a walking track, spreading fires and causing crashes. HUNDREDS OF CALLS TO FIRE SERVICE More than 330 emergency calls were made to the Fire Service in the South Island in the 24 hours to 6am Monday.
Supplied: Firefighters tackle the blaze in Fache St, Clyde, on Sunday morning.
Summer temps hit the South Island! 06/10/2015 http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/ summer-temps-hit-south-island
The 30 degree mark has been reached - and in fact temperatures are now in the low 30s across inland eastern parts of Canterbury. Meanwhile a string of late 20 degree temperatures are being record- ed from Dunedin to Christchurch. WeatherWatch.co.nz says parts of New Zealand are somewhat caught up with the heat wave that is yesterday broke rec- ords across South Australia. Yesterday parts of the state hit 40 de- grees. Even today both Melbourne and Sydney were on 32 degrees as of 12noon local time (2pm NZT). - WeatherWatch.co.nz with data from Wunderground (Abridged)
This is the life: warm days here at last Wed, 7 Oct 2015 By John Lewis http://www.odt.co.nz/news/ dunedin/358447/life-warm-days-here-last
Christian Fogavai (12) and Johnny But- terfield (11), both of Dunedin, at St Kilda Beach.
Official temperatures reached 27degC in the Dunedin city centre and 26degC at Dunedin Airport, MetService said. Not to be outdone, Kakanui topped 31degC, Waikouaiti 30degC and Mosgiel 28degC, according to unofficial temperatures on the MetService website. The thermometer on Portsmouth Dr showed 26.9degC at 3.21pm. However, yesterday's official temperatures did not get close to the October record of 30.4degC, rec- orded at Dunedin Airport on October 28, 1977, a MetService spokesman said. A gusty northwester- ly was forecast to continue in Dunedin today with an expected maximum of 24degC.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 33
Timaru sets new October temperature record 7 October 7 2015: ESTHER ASHBY-COVENTRY h p://www.stuff.co.nz/ maru-herald/news/72784276/Timaru-temperature-climbing-towards-record
JOSEPH JOHNSON/ FAIRFAX NZ : Temuka youngsters, from left, Bree Lough, 7, Milly Fenton, 7, and Zion Fenton, 4, make the most of the warm weather in the shallow waters of Caro- line Bay.
Timaru has broken a temperature record set in 1977, recording the highest October tem- perature since records began in 1962. MetService meteorolo- gist Lisa Murray said the mercury hit 29 de- grees Celsius at Rich- ard Pearse Airport at 4pm, beating the previous record October temperature of 28.9 degrees which was set in 1977. Record keeping started in 1962. (Abridged)
Tropical Cyclone ac vity expected to be above average Wednesday, 14 October 2015, http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC1510/S00039/tropical-cyclone-activity-expected-to-be-above-average.htm The weather in the tropical Southwest Pacific is becoming more active as we get closer to the formal start of the tropical cyclone season on 1st November. With a strong El Nino in effect, cyclone activity is expected to be above normal this season, spreading further east than normal and increasing the risk for the majority of Pacific Island nations. Every year MetService works alongside NIWA and national meteorological services from other Pa- cific nations to produce a Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the upcoming season. The outlook for the 2015/2016 season indicates that 11 to 13 tropical cyclones are expected in the Southwest Pacific, with at least six of those expected to be severe (Category 3 or higher). The average number of named trop- ical cyclones for previous seasons is about 10, based on the past 30 years. Although the tropical cy- clone season typically runs from 1 November through until the end of April, weather doesn't always follow a rigid calendar and tropical cyclones have been known to form as late as June.
Overall seasonal outlook for the number of named storms interacting with an island group based on the 2015-16 Island Climate Up- date tropical cyclone guid- ance. [NIWA]
On average, New Zealand experiences about one ex-tropical cyclone a season, and the risk is slightly higher than normal this season.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 34 Around the globe, the monitoring and forecasting of tropical systems is looked after by a Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) or a Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC), de- pending on the location of the cyclone. TCWC Wellington, based at MetService, has warning re- sponsibility for the area that extends from 160E to 120W and between 25S and 40S. Although it is very rare for any tropical cyclones to form in TCWC Wellington's area of responsibility, fully- fledged tropical cyclones do arrive from the neighbouring Brisbane or Nadi areas and they often retain their cyclone status until near 30S. Sometimes an ex-tropical cyclone will approach New Zea- land and Severe Weather Watches and Warnings need to be issued. Even if land areas are not af- fected, warnings are still issued for vessels over the open sea.
More bad weather in Fiji as depression nears 17 October 2015 http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/287247/more-bad-weather-in-fiji-as-depression-nears
Misaeli Funaki during media briefing at Nadi Weather Office.
The Fiji Met service is urging the public to adhere to the weather updates as a tropi- cal depression slowly affects the eastern part of the country. Forecasters in Fiji say the tropical depres- sion to the northeast of Rotuma has a moderate to high probability of develop- ing into a tropical cyclone this weekend. He says a strong wind warning remains in force for land areas of the Eastern Vanua Levu, Lau and Yasawa Group.(Abridged)
More wet, windy weather for Southland 18 October 2015 BRITTANY PICKETT h p://www.stuff.co.nz/southland- mes/news/73125936/more-wet-windy-weather-for-southland
Surface flooding on Charlton Rd, near Gore, on Saturday.
Southlanders will continue to battle with strong winds and rain for the next week, MetService says. MetService reported Invercargill as one of the windiest and coldest places in the country on Sunday afternoon, with gusts of up to 100km/h and temperatures of 8.4 degrees C. Gusts are expected to continue to reach 100km/h overnight. The temperature would be as low as 3 degrees on Monday morning and would not get past 12 or 13 degrees during the day, she said. The New Zealand Transport Agency has issued warnings for chains to be carried from Hollyford on State Highway 94 from Te Anau to Milford Sound because of snow. Snow showers could be expected above 400m on Monday.(Abridged)
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 35
High winds take off roofs, bring hail and rain 18 October 2015: TINA LAW h p://www.stuff.co.nz/na onal/73123293/High-winds-for-take-off-roofs-bring-hail-and-rain
Strong winds have lifted roofs and brought down powerlines as north- west gales sweep the country. Metservice said Invercargill record- ed the strongest winds and coldest temperatures on Sunday afternoon, with gusts of 100kmh whipping hail across the area and a temperature of just 8.4 degrees.
DAVID WALKER : Strong winds in Christchurch tore down the protective fence around the old Forsyth Barr building on the corner of Colombo and Armagh streets. (Abridged)
The Mckinlay family's trampoline fell victim to the strong gales in Ha- warden, N Canterbury.
Record blossoms point to bumper NZ apple crop Monday, 19 October, 2015 http://www.freshplaza.com/article/147659/Record-blossoms-point-to-bumper-NZ-apple-crop Hawke’s Bay’s apple orchards are experiencing some of the best blossoms on record setting New Zealand up for a bumper apple crop. New Zealand’s largest organic apple grower Bostock New Zealand says the hot, sunny weather this season has provided the perfect conditions for pollination. Bostock New Zealand Orchard Manager, Fulton Gillies says the weather conditions have been out- standing. “We have been averaging over 20 degrees each day, so the bees have been out working hard, pollinating our orchards. It’s been perfect to set us up for both a high quality and high yielding crop.” A cold, dry winter has also been good for the apple orchards. “We had a lot of winter chilling which means we have a tighter bloom and strong bud breaks which is ideal for the fruit coming on.” The 2016 season was forecast to be an off season with less apples predicted, but the favourable winter and spring conditions have set the Hawke’s Bay orchards up for another boomer season. However weather forecasters are predicting one of the driest summers on record so Bostock New Zealand Or- chard Managers are already starting to plan for the “big dry”. Mr Gillies says a hot, dry summer will also bring many benefits, reducing the risk of disease and improving the quality of the fruit. “When it’s hot and dry we expect good sugar, colour and storage. Bright red, sweet juicy apples that store
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 36 well are exactly what our markets are looking for so the confidence levels are high in Hawke’s Bay at the mo- ment.”
Canterbury firefighters damp- en scrub fires into the night 21 October 21 2015 MYLES HUME http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/ news/73219528/canterbury-firefighters- wary-of-100kmh-gusts
John Cross : A firefighter at a large dairy farm feed stockpile fire at Cone Road. \ Canterbury fire crews bat- tled several blazes, including this one on a Cone Road farm near Pleasant Point. Firefighters worked into the night to dampen down a flur- ry scrub fires stoked by strong northwest winds. Pow- erful gales reaching 100kmh lifted two roofs in Gore and one in Christchurch as a front moved up the South Island on Wednesday.
GEORGE EMPSON : Strong winds at the start of October caused dust storms in the Macken- zie basin. MetService meteorologist Karl Loots said wind gusts peaked between 120kmh and 100kmh around Banks Peninsula and Port Hills about 8pm, while 70kmh gusts were recorded Christchurch city. The gales, battering eastern areas, extended to Southland where gusts of 110kmh hammered Gore. (Abridged)
Huge El Nino spreading worldwide weather mayhem 22 October 2015: BRIAN K SULLIVAN Bloomberg h p://www.stuff.co.nz/world/africa/73301859/huge-el-nino-spreading-worldwide-weather-mayhem
NOAA : El Nino is strengthening, causing heavy rains in some places and drought in oth- ers. It has choked Singapore with smoke, triggered Pacific typhoons and left Vietnamese coffee growers staring nervously at dwindling reservoirs. In Africa, cocoa farmers are blaming it for bad harvests, and in the Ameri- cas, it has Argentines bracing for low- er milk production and Californians believing that rain is finally, merciful- ly on the way.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 37
Its effects are just beginning in much of the world -and yet it's already shaping up poten ally as one of the three strongest El Nino pa erns since record-keeping began in 1950. It will dominate weather's many twists and turns through the end of this year and well into next. And it's causing gyra ons in eve- rything from the price of Colombian coffee to the fate of cold-water fish.
Georgetown, South Carolina, was largely under water a er heavy rains earlier in October. Expect "major disrup ons, widespread droughts and floods," Kevin Trenberth, dis nguished senior sci- en st at the Na onal Centre for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. In principle, with advance warning, El Nino can be managed and prepared for, "but without that knowledge, all kinds of mayhem will let loose." In the simplest terms, an El Nino pa ern is a warming of the equatorial Pacific caused by a weakening of the trade winds that normally push sun-warmed waters to the west. This triggers a reac on from the atmosphere above. Its name traces back hundreds of years to the coast of Peru, where fishermen no ced the Pacific Ocean some mes warmed in late December, around Christmas, and coincided with changes in fish popula- ons. They named it El Nino a er the infant Jesus Christ. Today meteorologists call it the El Nino South- ern Oscilla on. RECORD EVENT The last me there was an El Nino of similar magnitude to the current one, the record-se ng event of 1997-1998, floods, fires, droughts and other calami es killed at least 30,000 people and caused US$100 billion (NZ$147b) in damage, Trenberth es mates. Another powerful El Nino, in 1918-19, sank India in- to a brutal drought and probably contributed to the global flu pandemic, according to a study by the Climate Program Office of the Na onal Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra on. As the Peruvian fishermen recognised in the 1600s, El Nino events tend to peak as summer comes to the Southern Hemisphere. The impact can be broken down into several categories. Coastal regions from Alaska to the Pacific Northwest in the US, as well as Japan, Korea and China may all have warmer winters. The southern US., parts of east Africa and western South America can get more rain, while dri- er condi ons prevail across much of the western Pacific and parts of Brazil. THRESHOLD LEVEL During the first full week of October, temperatures across a por on of the central Pacific most watched by researchers reached 2.4 Celsius above normal, the US Climate Predic on Centre said. The threshold
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 38 at which the Australian Bureau of Meteorology considers an El Nino under way is 0.8 degree Celsius, said Andrew Watkins, supervisor of Climate Predic on Services for the agency. While the effect on the US may not reach a crescendo un l February, much of the rest of the world is already feeling the impact, Trenberth said. "It probably sits at number two in terms of how strong this event is, but we won't be able to rank it un l it peaks out and ends," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Predic on Centre in Col- lege Park, Maryland.
El Nino could hurt coffee and cocoa crops. COFFEE, COCOA
Southern Sumatran and Javanese coffee and cocoa crops will probably be hurt, said Drew Lerner, the president of World Weather Inc. in Overland Park, Kansas. In addi on, fires burning in rain forests in Sumatra, Borneo and New Guinea, many of them set to clear land, have pushed air quality in Singapore to unhealthy levels, and the lack of rain resul ng from El Nino is making the situa on worse, said Robert Field, an associate research scien st at the NASA Goddard Ins tute for Space Studies at New York's Columbia University. So far this year, about 125,000 people have suffered haze- related ailments, Indonesia's disaster relief agency said this month. While much is made of the nega ve side of El Nino, the phenomenon is more complex. "It will be a feast or famine climate pa ern," said Sco Yuknis, president of Climate Impact Co. in Plymouth, Massachuse s. "Some crops will suffer too much rain and other regions will be hot and dry. The ming of the peak in this El Nino and how quickly it weakens will also determine the final crop impact." TEA PRODUCTIONR A drought in Kenya may cut tea produc on by 10 percent. However, El Nino-spurred rains may end up boos ng next year's harvest, Lerner said. As the atmosphere changes, storm tracks in the U.S., for instance are pushed down from the north, so the region from California to Florida could get more rain. This is reflected in the latest three-month outlook from the Climate Predic on Centre, which sees high odds that heavy rain will sweep from California into the mid-Atlan c states through January. Texas and Florida have the greatest chance for downpours. While this isn't likely to end Califor- nia's four-year drought, it improves condi ons. Elimina ng the dryness completely will be difficult because the state is so far behind on its normal rainfall.
Australia can expect more droughts. DEFECIT REMAINS
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 39
"If the we est year were to occur, we s ll wouldn't erase the deficit we have seen in the last four years," said Alan Haynes, service coordina on hydrologist at the California Nevada River Forecast Cen- ter in Sacramento. A lot of rain in Florida could exacerbate orange crop damage from citrus-greening disease, as the psyllid that carries it thrives on moisture, Lerner said. Produc on will shrink to a 52-year low in the season to Sept. 30 next year, according to the US Department of Agriculture. Cold-water species of fish will move north or into deep water, while others will disperse, the Na onal Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra on said. This in turn can hurt birds that feed off those fish, caus- ing many to die of starva on or fly far from their usual territories, said Andrew Farnsworth, researcher at Cornell University's Lab of Ornithology in Ithaca, New York. For Australia, El Nino can o en mean drought. "In broadest terms, though, we have had 26 past El Nino events since 1900, of which 17 resulted in widespread drought, so we in Australia have to manage for drought in any El Nino event," Watkins said. The weather in Australia is also affected by how warm the Indian Ocean gets, which can lead to rainier condi ons. Right now, that ocean, like the Pacific, is warm; however, all the other signals point the oth- er way. "The drys are winning out over the wet," Watkins said. HURRICANE IMPACT Another aspect of El Nino's scope that would seem posi ve at first is that there are typically fewer trop- ical cyclones, the class of storm that includes hurricanes and typhoons, making landfall in Australia dur- ing years the phenomenon is ac ve. "But there is a downside to that -- inland tropical areas get some of their best rainfall from ex-tropical cyclones that cross the coast and head inland as tropical depressions," Watkins said. This would have been a benefit for places such as western Queensland, which like California is in the midst of drought. The Atlan c Ocean also sees fewer tropical systems because of El Nino. Wind shear increases across the basin, tearing at the structure of storms and keeping their number down. While the Atlan c has pro- duced two killer storms this year, the total number of hurricanes and tropical storms has been below the seasonal average. Trenberth said he hopes all the warning helped people prepare for this El Nino. Planning could help ag- ricultural economies weather the event be er than the El Ninos in 1982-83 and 1997-98, perhaps lead- ing to more water being captured for future use and prevent deaths. "The general thing about these things is, if you are prepared, it doesn't have to be a nega ve," Tren- berth said. "One of the biggest challenges that may not be to individuals but to organisa ons is water and water management. Can you save that water and manage that water so that, when it stops, you can s ll use it?"
Big dry predicted for this summer Monday 26 Oct 26, 2015 By Gerald Ford Wairarapa Times Age http://www.nzherald.co.nz/wairarapa-times-age/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503414&objectid=11535058
BIG DRY: It might not seem it on the surface but it's already dry out there.
The "big dry" summer forecast for Wairarapa is coming to pass, according to lat- est figures from Niwa and Greater Wellington Regional Council. Low rainfall has been recorded for the past three months in southern and eastern
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 40
Wairarapa, says catchment management group manager Wayne O'Donnell, "meaning the soil mois- ture buffer that normally exists at this time of year is somewhat reduced". The El Nino weather pattern has produced warmer than normal ocean temperatures in the north and mid Pacific Ocean, but at the same time the waters around New Zealand have been cooler than normal. This has produced more westerly and southwesterly winds, meaning less rainfall for easter- ly regions. "Calculations by Niwa indicate that most of Wairarapa has had lower than normal winter rainfall, and rainfall on the eastern coast has been near the lowest on record (eg, Castlepoint had the fourth lowest winter rainfall on record)". (Abridged)
Before the flood: NIWA tool gives two-day flood warning 27 October 2015 http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/288096/niwa-tool-gives-two-day-flood-warning and http://www.stuff.co.nz/manawatu-standard/news/73481535/niwa-trialling-flood-forecasting-service A new tool forecasting extreme rainfall could predict disastrous floods 48 hours in advance.
Whanganui was hit by devastating flooding in June: Photo: RNZ / Rob- in Martin
Water and atmosphere science body NIWA said severe floods were be- coming more intense, and were likely to be more frequent as the effects of climate change were felt. It is testing a new model that uses rainfall meas- urements, changes in river levels and topo- graphical maps to pre- dict where and when extreme weather will hit. In NIWA's annual report chief executive John Morgan said they could now forecast and monitor rainfall across the country to a resolution of 1.5 square kilometres. "Our TopNet flow prediction model accounts for every step the water takes in its journey from the moment it hits the tree canopy to when it runs into waterways. TopNet can forecast, hours ahead, how rainfall will change river heights and flow rates." NIWA's RiskScape tool could then show where the water will go if these waterways flood. It can also estimate the cost of the damage to buildings and businesses, Morgan said. Civil Defence Minister Nikki Kaye has previously said the total cost of the flooding in the lower North Island was estimated at about $270 million. NIWA chief scientist for climate, atmosphere and hazards Dr Sam Dean said they had made a leap forward through collaboration with the UK Met Office. He said because of New Zealand's location relative to the sub-tropics, it was particularly exposed to the changes a warmer climate brought. "As the atmosphere in the sub-tropics warms, it holds more water, gets sucked down and slams into New Zealand. It's one of the most robust responses of climate change." Mr Dean said the unique topography of the country made it particularly susceptible. "When it hits our mountains, when that comes across the ocean and we have our large mountains and in the North Island, our hills, then we get that extreme rainfall coming down." The model creates a kind of simulated journey from rainfall, into the rivers and finally into people's houses.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 41 It is currently being tested by the West Coast Regional Council, but other council's across the coun- try will have access to the system once it is ready.Mr Dean said the models were continuously fed with data gathered from the field."We believe we've made a bit of a breakthrough in terms of our weather forecasting capability. We now have this model that can forecast extreme events extremely well."He said extreme floods were around 4-5 percent more severe already, and they would only get stronger and more intense in the future."As climate change begins to bite, the public should expect more flooding in the short term. Infrastructure built to carry water out of towns and cities is de- signed for historical amounts of water. As we see increased amounts of rain over short durations, you might see these systems starting to fail more often." (Combined and Abridged)
MetService highlights road weather innova ons 30 October 30, 2015 http://business.scoop.co.nz/2015/10/30/metservice-highlights-road-weather-innovations/
MetService will exhibit and conduct a workshop at the NZTA NZIHT 16th Annual Conference being held 1-3 November 2015 in the Bay of Islands. The theme of the exhibition is ‘Just around the corner; the weather innovations set to transform the future’. The workshop session will discuss a new innovation programme to evaluate the use of vehicles to collect road weather data and expand New Zealand’s weath- er observation assets. A two-year collaborative trial involving MetService and the NZ Transport Agency will commence in No- vember 2015 along State Highway 29 over the Kaimai Range. Transport Agency chief safety advisor Colin Brodie says the trial aims to encourage people to drive at safe speeds when rain, ice and fog hit the Kaimai Range. “Our data shows that over 70 percent of the crashes on the Kaimai Range happen in wet weather, and that over 40 percent of these were caused by drivers travelling too fast for the conditions,” he says. Variable message speed limit signs, along with four road cameras and an automatic weather station at the summit, will be linked to the NZTA control cen- tre. Operators there will constantly evaluate the prevailing environmental conditions and the availa- ble data and remotely update the variable message signs.MetService believes that advances in mete- orological science, and new and innovative sensor technology and data delivery channels, will in the near future provide transport agencies and road users with more accurate and immediate infor- mation about road conditions so that they can react to changing conditions quickly and safely. MetService Business Development Manager Peter Fisher sees the connected car as being a signifi- cant opportunity for the future. Research company Gartner believes there will be a quarter of a bil- lion connected vehicles on the road by 2020. (Abridged)
Speed signs to change with weather Sunday Nov 1, 2015: By Rebecca Savory- Bay of Plenty Times h p://www.nzherald.co.nz/bay-of-plenty- mes/ news/ar cle.cfm?c_id=1503343&objec d=11538096
SAFETY INNOVATION: Transport Agency road safety chief adviser Colin Brodie (left) and Transport Minister Si- mon Bridges examine the weather- activated speed signs on the Kaimai Range. PHOTO/GEORGE NOVAK
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 42
A New Zealand first road safety initiative harnessing weather and power technologies to combat one of the country's most dangerous roads will launch on Monday. Twenty-two weather-activated speed signs have been installed on a deadly 12km stretch over the Kaimai Range and aim to reduce the number of crashes on the busy highway. The 100km/h speed limit will be reduced during bad weather, based on the amount of rain and wind recorded by a specially-installed weather station. In the past 10 years, nearly 70 per cent of reported crashes on the Kaimai Range have happened in wet or icy conditions. The signs will link to the weather station at the top of the range and information will be sent back to the Auckland Traffic Operations Centre where the speed limit on display will be adjusted according- ly. Because of the remote locations, half the signs are powered by solar panels and wind turbines that can be seen along the side of the highway. Technology built into the signs also allowed the Transport Agency to monitor average vehicle speeds by tracking bluetooth technology in people's cars and recording the time it takes a car to travel be- tween two signs. "People in the Bay of Plenty have known for quite some time it's a potentially fatal road." Mr Bridges said weather was a big, if not the biggest factor in crashes in the area. (Abridged)
Installing solar panels chance to test benefits Mon, 2 Nov 2015 [email protected] http://www.odt.co.nz/regions/central-otago/361572/installing-solar-panels-chance-test-benefits
Atmospheric scientist Ben Liley thinks solar panels should power everything from research stations to family homes. Photo by Jono Edwards
When solar panels were being installed to power their multimil- lion dollar scientific equipment, the scientists at Lauder saw the opportunity to do what they do best: research. Last week, 72 solar panels were installed on the roof of the Na- tional Institute of Water and At- mospheric Research's (Niwa) Lauder station, 35km northeast of Alexandra. On a clear, sunny day the panels could collect 18kW of energy. This would be almost enough to power the multimillion dollar equipment at the site. The use of solar panels would double as an experiment to assess how cloud cover and panel tilting affected energy collection. The station does a range of at- mospheric work including meas- uring greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and other studies about climate change more generally. It was built in 1960 to study the aurora as the location had the clearest night skies in the country due to low levels of cloud and dust. In the 1990s the station was an important centre for measuring ozone levels. The information gathered would be used to update Niwa's online solarview tool which estimates solar energy captured at any given address in the country. (Abridged)
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 43 Prince Charles and Camilla arrive in New Zealand 4 Nov 2015 h p://www.radionz.co.nz/news/na onal/288858/a-right-royal-wellington-welcome
Prince Charles and the Duchess of Cornwall make their way to shelter at Wellington Airport. Photo: RNZ / Alexander Robertson The prince and his wife landed at the Royal New Zealand Air Force (RNZAF) terminal in Wellington, in wet and cold weather condi ons more reminiscent of winter than spring, early this a ernoon. They arrived in an RNZAF Boeing 757 on a flight from Singapore, two years a er their last visit here. In the first public event of the royal tour, the prince and duchess a ended a wreath-laying ceremony at the Pukeahau Na- onal Memorial Park in front of about 100 people. (Abridged)
Photo: POOL / NZH
Federated Farmers: Senor El Nino an unwelcome arrival 5 Nov 5, 2015: By Georgina Griffiths MetService meteorologist https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#label/MetService/150cf84adbc525aa
El nino can spark a mix of bizarre weather conditions. El Nino conditions have reached very strong levels in the central Pacific Ocean.
The pool of abnormally warm seas centred on the equa- tor now extends right across the Pacific Ocean, from South America to Vanuatu. Sea temperatures in August across the central Pacific exceeded 2 degrees above nor- mal. It is the strongest El Nino since 1997/98 by all indi- cators. You may hear mentioned that the 2015 El Nino event has equalled the 1997/98 event. This refers to the fact
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 44 August conditions were comparable between both events. But the 2015 version has not yet reached the peak seen in 1998 -- it is, however, intensifying a bit earlier in the year. Recently, the atmosphere and ocean have been working hard together, in a somewhat vicious circle, to continue warming the seas and strengthening the event. In other words, this El Nino is locked in, and is likely to persist through into the first quarter of 2016. A maturing of the El Nino is expected in the coming few months. The latest forecasts predict this El Nino will strengthen further between now and Christmas, but at a more modest pace than recently seen. It is expected that this event will peak around December and then rapidly ease during autumn 2016. Importantly, it is by no means certain it will reach the 'super El Nino' levels seen in 1997/98 and 1982/83. During those events, seas approached 3C above normal in the central Pacific, and exceeded that in the eastern Pacific. Even if it does, there is no guarantee that we will see 'super' (extra strong) impacts here in New Zealand. It is useful to note that the effects in New Zealand of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Nino events differed greatly over the summer period. The summer of 1997/98 was strong- ly anticyclonic, with much higher pressures over all of New Zealand, and frequent west to northwest winds over the country. In comparison, the summer of 1982/83 was stormy, with low pressures and frequent southwest winds over New Zealand. Summer 1997/98 was unusually hot and dry, while summer 1982/83 was unsea- sonably cold. The extended easterly rain event at the end of September, which produced significant rainfall for the drier eastern regions of both islands, certainly highlights the fact that weather will trump climate any day. There is no guarantee that the El Nino of 2015/2016 will play out along typical lines. However, so far, impacts throughout New Zealand are doing all the 'right' things. Namely: - Sea temperatures around the New Zealand coast are running cooler than normal (especially to the east of the country). -Air temperatures for the back half of winter, and also for September, were below average for most regions. - Southerly air streams were frequent during the back half of winter and also September. - Soil temperatures were well down compared to normal in August and September for many regions, but most markedly in the southeast South Island. (Abridged)
Half of Weather Disasters Linked to Climate Change 5 Nov 2015 By Randy Lee Loftis, National Geographic h p://news.na onalgeographic.com/2015/11/151105-climate-weather-disasters-drought-storms/ and http://www.usnews.com/news/science/news/articles/2015/11/05/report-14-wild-weather-events-last-year-goosed-by-warming
Human-caused changes in climate played a role in 14 of 28 storms, droughts, and other 2014 extreme weather events investigated by global scientists. From a deadly snowstorm in Nepal to a heat wave in Argentina that crashed power supplies, at least 14 extreme weather events last year bore the fingerprints of human-induced climate change, an in- ternational team of scientists reported Thursday. Researchers examined 28 weather extremes on all seven continents to see if they were influenced by climate change or were just normal weather. Their conclusion: Half of them showed some role of cli- mate change. “We hope that this will help people see how climate change is affecting their day-to-day lives,” says lead editor Stephanie C. Herring of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Nation- al Centres for Environmental Information. Although debate continues over accuracy and details, scientists now say their improved modelling tools in recent years have made it easier to tease out climate change effects from the seeming chaos of the weather. The findings, by researchers from agencies and institutions in more than 20 countries, add to the list of extreme events in which climate change either played a large or small role or set up conditions that made them more likely. Record heat struck Europe, the Korean peninsula, northern China, and Australia – all with climate-change signals, according to the peer-reviewed report, which appears in a special issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 45
Photograph by TIm Smith, The Canadian Press, Associated Press
Droughts in Syria and East Af- rica, record rains in New Zea- land and France, Nepal’s ex- treme Himalayan snowstorm, flooding in southeastern Cana- da, and an extremely active Ha- waiian hurricane season also had direct or indirect climate links, the report finds. So did increased Antarctic sea ice and hotter Pacific and Atlantic sea- surface temperatures. The scientists detected no link in last year’s severe winter storms in the United Kingdom and North America or the unusually cold U.S. winter. In Northern Califor- nia, researchers could not link any single 2014 wildfire to climate change but they concluded that cli- mate change has made bigger, more intense western fires far more likely, according to the new re- port as well as numerous other studies. Such findings will help people get ready for climate change’s impacts, NOAA’s Herring says. “As the field of climate attribution science grows the insurance industry, and many others, can use the information more effectively for improved decision-making and to help communities better pre- pare for future extreme events,” she says. Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said humans have changed Earth's climate as a whole, so it is "seriously misguided" to ask if individual events are affected by humans. Report is online at http://bit.ly/1NSh8A7. (Combined and Abridged)
Scien sts examine links between Northland deluge and climate change 6 November 2015 http://www.niwa.co.nz/news/scientists-examine-links-between-northland-deluge-and-climate-change
Ci zen scien sts have helped NIWA determine that climate change has likely increased the chances of extreme rainfall that deluged Northland last year. Over five days in early July 2014, Northland was hit by extremely high rainfall when a low pressure sys- tem carrying excep onally moist air became parked over the region. The town of Kaikohe recorded a July rainfall total more than 300% of normal, and total insurance claims from the deluge topped $18 million. Scien sts have been inves ga ng to what degree human interference in the climate system influenced the risk of such extreme rainfall occurring. The results have been included in a paper in the special in- terna onal report ‘ Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspec ve’ , published today by the Bulle n of the American Meteorological Society. NIWA climate scien st Dr Suzanne Rosier, the paper’s lead author, was able to use compu ng me from a network of volunteers, including New Zealanders, to process thousands of simula ons of region- al climate models. The volunteers take part in the ‘weather @ home’ project (part of the Oxford-based ‘climate predic o n.net’), in which they donate their computers’ spare processing power to crunch weather data from climate models. The compu ng power harnessed in this way enables far more informa on to be gathered than would be possible with conven onal compu ng resources, helping to increase confidence in the scien fic out- comes.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 46 For the Northland study, Dr Rosier used the state-of-the-art Australia New Zealand regional climate model to run two sets of experiments. The first looked at the five-day weather data under present cli- mate condi ons, while the second analysed the weather data under climate condi ons as they might have been had there been no human influence. “The advantage in using the weather @ home model is that we can run thousands of simula ons. Since weather pa erns are chao c, we need such a large number of simula ons to help us es mate the range of possible weather outcomes under any par cular set of driving condi ons. By having this very large number of es mates both with and without the human influence on climate we are able to draw more confident conclusions about the human impact on extreme weather events than would otherwise be the case.” While the rainfall that led to the 2014 Northland floods could have occurred in a world without climate change, Dr Rosier found that the chances of such heavy rain have increased as a result of human influ- ence. The study’s best es mate is that the risk of such an event has approximately doubled because of human interference with the climate system. This follows similar studies by NIWA released in the past couple of years analysing the effects of climate change on two previous extreme events: extreme rainfall in Golden Bay and Nelson in 2011 that flood- ed more than 300 homes and proper es, and severe drought across the North Island in early 2013. The Golden Bay study concluded that an increase in greenhouse gases helped increase atmospheric moisture levels, contribu ng to extreme rainfall in the area. In the case of the 2013 drought, scien sts found that human influence had made condi ons more favourable for drought. “Our contribu on to this latest report con nues NIWA’s focus on understanding how man-made chang- es to the climate system could be affec ng today’s extreme weather events, and the influence climate change might be having on the severity and frequency of those events,” Dr Rosier said. You can support the project by dona ng your spare compu ng power. Just sign up at: www.weatherathome.net
Taranaki is one of New Zealand's windiest regions, says NIWA report 11 Nov 2015 DAVID BURROUGHS http://www.stuff.co.nz/taranaki-daily-news/news/73913990/Taranaki-is-one-of-New-Zealands-windiest-regions-says-NIWA-report
ANDY JACKSON/Fairfax NZ Ta- ranaki has some of the windiest weather in the country.
A new climate report will proba- bly come as little surprise to Ta- ranaki residents: we're one of the windiest regions in the country. The findings are revealed by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), which has updated its Climate and Weather of Taranaki report for the first time in 30 years. And its findings show that Tara- naki is one windiest regions in the country - with spring the windiest season. Taranaki's highest wind speed on land over the last 30 years was a whopping 172kmh gust recorded at East Egmont, on the side of Mt Taranaki, in 1980. But the Maui A oil platform, which collects weather data offshore, recorded a gust of 174kmh a year later. (Abridged)
Dry weather ushers in cherry picking 16 Nov 2015 HEATHER SIMPSON -The Marlborough Express h p://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/cropping/74056547/dry-weather-ushers-in-cherry-picking.html
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 47 SCOTT HAMMOND/FAIRFAX NZ: Myrian Waser, of Germany, looks at the early variety Earlise at Kiwi Cherries in Blenheim
The Marlborough cherry season will be off to a sweet start this week. Orchardists said the first pickings were due to begin within days, thanks to a good winter. Cherry orchards were reporting aver- age crops but a heavy rain or frost event could cut the load. Kiwi Cherries owner Terry Sowman said cherry picking would kick off this week."We are going through the shed, or drop, when the trees decide how much fruit they want to hold. You think you have a big crop then fruits drops off. It's natures way of controlling the popula- tion."Public picking would start at the end of the week when there was more fruit available, Whyte said. The timing of the season was traditional and similar to last year, Whyte said. "The cold winter really slows everything down and saw the season open a little bit later in previous years." The crop was of medium size but the quality was too early to say, Whyte said. (Abridged)
New Zealand Helicopter Crash On Fox Glacier Kills 7 People On Board 21 Nov 2015 By Vishakha Sonawane http://www.ibtimes.com/new-zealand-helicopter-crash-fox-glacier-kills-7-people-board-2194859
Weather experts blamed climatic conditions for the helicopter crash that killed seven people aboard over Fox Glacier Saturday. In this photo, dated April 9, 2009, tourists walk on Fox Glacier. Photo: Reu- ters/Russell Boyce
Two Australians and four British tourists are believed to have been killed in Saturday’s helicopter crash over New Zealand’s tourist site of Fox Glacier, police said. A helicopter in New Zea- land carrying seven people crashed Saturday at Fox Glacier, a popular tourist site on the country’s South Island, authori- ties said. The cause of the crash was not immediately known and aviation authorities were investigat- ing. Police said wreckage of the plane was found inside a crevasse on Fox Glacier. Difficult topography and weather conditions hampered the rescue operations and delayed the recov- ery of bodies. Grey District Mayor Tony Kokshoorn said the area where the helicopter crashed had “terrible” weather conditions. Kokshoorn added that the region experienced heavy rain overnight and low clouds resulted in "poor visibility."
Rare 'con nuous' thunderstorm event for Aucklanders Sunday, 22 November, 2015 http://www.voxy.co.nz/national/rare-continuous-thunderstorm-event-aucklanders/5/237799 Social media has lit up, mostly with excitement, at a rare continuous thunderstorm event in Auck- land. For almost 30 minutes thunder and lightning continued non-stop for some central and north-
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 48 ern suburbs, from around 11:55pm to 12:20am. WeatherWatch.co.nz head weather analyst Philip Duncan says "hundreds" of lightning flashes lit up the sky around Auckland in a matter of 20 minutes or so. At one stage the lightning count was over 500 recorded around Auckland and out in the eastern Tas- man. (Abridged)
'Very, very intense' thunderstorm batters Auckland 22 November 2015 http://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/74278893/very-very-intense-thunderstorm-batters-auckland More than 2000 Auckland homes lost power overnight as the region was battered by strong thunder- storms and wind overnight. MetService meteorologist Rob Kerr said the storm was "very, very intense". The northern region was hit by more than 10,000 lightning strikes on Saturday night and early Sun- day morning, with over 1300 occurring in the Auckland area. The storm also affected the Coroman- del, Waikato and Bay of Plenty areas.
The City of Sails was hit by over 1300 light- ning strikes in Saturday night's storm.
Hodge said high winds rather than the light- ning was the main cause of power outages. The MetService's Kerr said the storm was caused by a cold front sweeping in and lift- ing up the warm, wet air that had been hanging over the city. The cold front brought strong winds of more than 100kmh. Winds were strongest out west, where the exposed Manukau Heads registered the strongest gusts of 128kmh. The Harbour Bridge registered winds of up to 96kmh overnight. Many of the MetService's rain monitoring stations were knocked out by the lightning, but Kerr said Auckland had seen substantial rain as well. Among the most affected areas was Pukekohe, which had 31mm of rain overnight. (Abridged)
Opinion: El Nino not living up to hype...for now Tuesday, 24 November, 2015 By WeatherWatch head weather analyst Philip Duncan. http://www.voxy.co.nz/national/opinion-el-nino-not-living-hypefor-now/5/238004 Across New Zealand there's a theme emerging. Recent polls at WeatherWatch.co.nz back it up too. It's been a cold and sometimes dry spring, generally, across New Zealand - and with plenty of wind. But despite an ongoing drought in Canterbury, dry areas creeping into Marlborough and North Ota- go and heat records being broken earlier in the season, many other areas have had rain relief in re- cent weeks and many farmers are feeling optimistic heading into December. El Nino tends to fuel more windy westerlies across New Zealand which typically makes for cloudier cooler weather in the north west, wetter weather on the West Coast and Southland and drier weath- er inland and out to the east of both islands - but as we've been saying all year, our country is so small it only takes a couple of large weather systems to make NZ buck the trend. The cooler weather this November in many areas is a sign El Nino is here - and the dry pattern form- ing in the east of the South Island is more evidence. But so far this spring the North Island, along with western and southern parts of the South Island, are having plenty of rain events. In fact some say this El Nino spring is wetter than last spring. The current poll at WeatherWatch asks if you're concerned about a dry December. 31% say yes so far. 53% say the recent rain means December is now ok. The poll the previous week asked people to vote for one word that best summed up Spring 2015 - "Cold" won, followed closely by "Windy" and then "Dry" - this was before the recent heavy rain in the upper North Island especially. Also a poll on the first of November revealed that 58% of New Zealanders were still using some form of "heat" each day to warm themselves up, while 42% responded with "toughen up!". (Abridged)
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 49 Extreme weather thrashes country 26 November 2015 LAURA WALTERS http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/74457381/extreme-weather-thrashes-country The country is taking a battering from mother nature, with fire-starting winds in the south, gales forecast for the capital and extreme heat in the east. Southland and Marlborough are fighting fires caused by high winds and hot, dry conditions. Wellington and south Wairarapa are brac- ing for gusts up to 130kmh as gales pick up speed from Thursday afternoon.
Supplied: Fires spread across Waikakaho in Marlborough.
Meanwhile, northern parts of the country are dealing with extreme humidity and parts of Hawke's Bay and Canterbury have hit 30 degrees Celsius four days out from summer. Ashburton and Dunedin were also creeping towards the 30C mark. MetService had issued a severe weather warning for Southland predicting strong Northwest gales gusting 130 kmh, possibly 160 kmh in exposed inland places from noon on Thursday until Friday morning. Local firefighters, who had been battling the Southland blaze, said there was not much they could do if the fire flared up during strong gusts.
NICOLE JOHNSTONE/FAIRFAX NZ:The blaze near Dipton, Southland, burnt out 100 hectares of vegetation on Monday
Professor Martin Manning from Victoria University's Climate Change Institute said climate change and greenhouse gas emissions were behind the record-breaking weather. "Records are being broken even more comprehensively at a regional level for: extremes in tempera- ture, the extent of wildfires, the areas being affected by cyclones, and flooding caused by extreme rainfall," Manning said.(Abridged)
NZ won't get record highs this summer – NIWA Friday 27 Nov 2015 3 News online staff h p://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/nz-wont-get-record-highs-this-summer--niwa-2015112714#axzz3u5vUzmIr Kiwis may feel temperatures getting warmer but the country is not expected to get record-high tem- peratures this summer, despite the global warming effects of El Niño. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) released a statement saying the global average sur- face temperature this year is likely to be the warmest on record, due to both a strong El Niño and global warming. The past five years have been the warmest five years on record, according to the WMO analysis. But NIWA principal climate scientist Dr Brett Mullan says the effects of El Niño, which causes a large area of warm water in the Pacific to pump heat into the atmosphere, aren't as dramatic for New Zealand. "For New Zealand, El Niño produces more southerlies and south westerlies a lot of the year so we often average out to be below normal," he says. The year 1998 still remains the country's warmest on record, according to NIWA's Seven Station Se- ries. In that year New Zealand was about 0.9degC above the 1981 to 2010 climatological average. Dr Mullan says while New Zealand is still experiencing significant long-term warming, variability each year can be quite different to the global pattern. "At the moment we're running about 0.3degC
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 50 above normal for 2015. We're certainly warmer than the average but there's no way we're going to get up to the 0.9degC of 1998." (Abridged)
Mercury rising: Yesterday ho est since April 27 November by Roger Handford http://gisborneherald.co.nz/localnews/2033327-135/mercury-rising- yesterday-hottest-since-april And today’s forecast is for another 26-degree day and more blustery, north-westerly winds.
Sunrise at Wainui. File picture
THE temperature in the district cranked up yester- day to be the hottest day so far this spring, melting tar on the roads and sending many to the beach for a dip. In line with the air temperature, the sea temperature is also rising, and is between 15 and 17 degrees along the beachfront. MetService says the day hit 28 degrees, the warmest day since early April. (Abridged)
Cyclone TUNI batters Samoa 29 Nov 2015 By Jimmy Ellingham http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11552813
Surface flooding in Matautu-uta, Samoa. Photo / Facebook
Samoa is waking up to survey the damage after Cyclone TUNI bat- tered the Pacific nation overnight. The high-powered weather system dumped about 100 millimetres of rain and brought strong winds to the popular tourist hotspot. Locals are still working to assess the extent of the damage but the nation's capital Apia was hit by flash flooding last night with reports, too, of landslides and blocked roads. On the MetService blog, meteorologist Emma Blades said, at 7am today, Tropical Cyclone Tuni was 160km southwest of Samoa. Winds at its centre were blowing about 75 km/h, with gales extending 140km from the centre. Lute Tauvale, head of the Samoan Meteorology Division, said where his office was, the rain had now stopped and the cloud was thinning, but the strong winds continued. In 24 hours to this morning, 80 to 100mm of rain fell in Apia. "Most of the city experienced a flash flood. Some of the roads were blocked. Some people calling in reported landslides on the east and northern coasts." (Abridged)
Cyclone TUNI brings flooding to Samoa 29 November 2015 h p://www.radionz.co.nz/interna onal/pacific-news/290826/cyclone-brings-flooding-to-samoa Emergency services in Samoa, American Samoa and Tonga are ge ng a clearer picture this morning of the damage le by Tropical Cyclone Tuni.The category 1 cyclone ba ered Samoa and American Samoa yesterday bringing torren al rain that caused flooding and slips, while strong winds were recorded in Tonga. The storm is due to pass close to Niue tomorrow.
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 51
Flooding in downtown Apia brought by Tropical Cyclone Tuni. Photo: RNZI / Autagavaia Tipi Au- tagavaia
In Samoa, flash flooding was re- ported across the island of Savai'i and homes were evacuated in the capital Apia. Much of the coastal road around the main island of Upolu was impassable last night because of flooded fords and rivers, and landslips. The Vaisigano River, which flows through the capital Apia, burst its banks yesterday but Samoa's Dis- aster Management Office said wa- ter levels there and around the is- land had since dropped. Markets, shops and homes were flooded on the island of Savai'i and all inter- island ferry crossings have been cancelled for today.
Landslide in American Samoa fol- lowing rain /Cyclone Tuni. Photo: RNZI/Fili Sagapolutele
The path of Tropical Cyclone Tuni on Sunday morning. Photo: SUPPLIED / Sa- moa DMO
Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #143 Summer 2015/2016- Page 52