1 Transport in London In partnership with New solutions for a changing city 2 Contents 4 8 Introduction A changing London Evolution of transport in the city 21 30 The challenge New models Influencing and shaping Funding approaches for the a changing city next era of transport in London 50 Conclusion 3 Authors and contributors This report has been developed through a collaboration between London First and Arup. Authors The figures and analysis in this report are deliberately high-level. The intent was not to John Dickie, London First undertake detailed transport demand and financial modelling, but rather to assess the order- Adam Tyndall, London First of-magnitude impact that recent trends may have on both future travel and funding requirements. Richard de Cani, Arup Except where otherwise indicated in the text, we Andrew Nothstine, Arup generally use the term ‘rail’ in this report to refer to all Transport for London-operated rail services Daniel Philips, Arup in the capital: London Underground, TfL Rail Patrick Andison, Arup (which will become the Elizabeth Line), London Overground, and Docklands Light Railway. All photos are from Andrew Nothstine unless Contributors otherwise indicated. Isabel Dedring, Arup Adrien Friesen, Arup Holly Mizser-Jones, Arup Alexander Skill, Arup Victor Frebault, Arup Sam Aitkenhead, Space and Motion Image source: Arup 4 Introduction 5 An existential crisis – and an opportunity for transformational change Transport for London (TfL) was established, own transport network without being given along with the mayoralty, at the turn of the an adequate range of powers to pay for the millennium. This young organisation has services, service levels, and investments that achieved a lot. From the Oyster Card and the city needs. Congestion Charge to the Overground and Pre-pandemic, this led to an over-reliance soon-to-open Crossrail, London’s extensive on the farebox and particularly on the and well utilised public transport network has revenues generated from tube customers. been an integral part of the city’s growth. As a result, TfL’s finances were hit harder Between 1997 and 2017 the city’s population than those of other transport authorities grew by 20%, yet the number of private when passenger numbers plummeted in the vehicle trips in Greater London slightly wake of the Covid pandemic. London saw decreased. Public transport trips have a 65% reduction in tube demand and 44% increased from 6m to 10m daily, supporting reduction in bus demand between March high value job creation and a better quality and November 2020. of life for Londoners. There can be no doubt that an effective mass transit network lies at However, the funding model for London the heart of London’s competitiveness. TfL, transport was already showing signs of and all three of London’s mayors, deserve stress before the pandemic hit. Driven by much credit for this success. changing behaviours, new commuting patterns, network congestion, and new But there has always been a tension technologies, London saw bus passengers between the responsibilities granted to the declining, rail passengers plateauing, and Mayor and TfL for running London’s transport use of alternative modes increasing. All of services, and the resources available to them which contributed to growing constraints on under London’s limited devolution settlement. TfL’s revenue. In short, London has been asked to run its 6 Reinventing transport in London In the short-term, there is no substitute for The starting point for any new funding model for We therefore examine a range of further central government support, as London London must be that a greater, though still small, options for meeting London’s transport government simply does not have the share of the existing public revenues raised needs. Some are radical, others are more powers and resources to otherwise fund here must be channelled into paying for the incremental, but none are easy. Getting the the network. However, a continuous short- transport services which makes these revenues balance right is for all of us to debate. Now term cycle of funding negotiations with possible in the first place. But while that provides is the time to think creatively, recommit to the Treasury is no way to run a transport a foundation for paying for the transport the city London’s devolved transport authority and network. London needs greater certainty and needs, more needs to be done. look to the future. greater autonomy in matching its services and investments to its needs. This report is our first attempt to frame to that debate. The first section examines how London and its transport network have evolved in modern times before assessing the impact and implications of the pandemic. Section two combines an analysis of the current funding challenge for TfL with an analysis of future trends and forecasts of future travel demand. The final section looks at how London could pay for the network and services that the city needs, taking into consideration the likely trends and critical questions of efficiency, equity, Photo by Shutterstock and the environment. 7 Transport doesn’t only shape our Why does public transport matter? daily lives and determine how we The Global City Power Index (GCPI) has ranked London get around London – it can create as the most magnetic global city for its ability to attract new opportunities for Londoners and people, capital, and enterprise from around the world. London’s place at the top of the table, which it has held shape the character of our city. since 2012, is buoyed by top marks for accessibility. Sadiq Khan, Mayor of London, London is considered the most accessible major urban Mayor’s Transport Strategy centre by GCPI, thanks to its extensive and well supported public transport and sustainable travel network. Access to high-quality public transport and active travel opportunities supports a better quality of life for citizens. Research from the American Journal of Preventative Medicine shows that each additional hour spent in a car per day is associated with a 6% increase in the likelihood of obesity, while each additional kilometre walked per day was associated with a 5% reduction. And local air pollution in London is already at illegally high levels in many car- intensive areas – a situation that would be even worse without high-quality public transport. The performance of London’s transport network is also critical for meeting our sustainability objectives. Transport accounts for 26% of greenhouse gas emissions in London – a figure which we must reduce, but which is significantly lower than car-dominated cities where transport can account for around half of emissions. There is no ‘benefit-cost ratio’ that can tell the whole story of the economic, environmental, and social benefits delivered by London’s transport system. And the consequences of poor public transport provision never fall evenly across society. This is especially true in a city like London where the poor are less likely to own their own car. Just as public transport services and investments help to level up the country, they also serve to level up the city. London’s tube, buses, cycles, and taxis are worldwide The dispersion of commuters that arrive into London from the Greater London Area icons for a reason – they are a quintessential part of the and beyond. The blue sections of the arc represent the home-end of the journey, city’s fabric and what makes London, London. with the brighter yellow end of the arc representing the work-end of the journey Image source: Arup 8 A changing London: Evolution of transport in the city 9 An ever-changing London London has continually adapted and become the world’s largest city in the early trajectory. Canary Wharf’s history provides changed throughout history, and its transport 19th century. one illustration: from swamps to the largest system has always played a central role New challenges emerged in the 20th century. docks in the world, and then from a derelict in this. The city’s development began as In the post-war era, London’s population industrial site to a global financial hub. But of the first bridging point on the Thames, fell precipitously over many decades, due course these changes were not preordained. and Roman roads connected Londinium’s to poor quality of life for many, a changing Instead, they were the result of smart, barracks to Roman Britain and its ports global economy and government policies that sustained choices to reinvent the city in the across the rest of the empire. favoured investment outside of London. face of severe challenges. London emerged as the capital of a united The city could have continued to decline, The following pages provide an overview of England in the early medieval period. but interventions and investments made London’s – and the London transport system’s The city’s population grew continuously, by forward-thinking leaders changed this – evolution following the long and difficult overcoming the sometimes severe setbacks period of 20th century decline. of plagues. The great fire of London marked a new era for transport in London – roads were widened (while mostly sticking to existing layouts) and wharves built across the Thames, setting the stage for Britain’s growth as a global trading nation. London has a history of shaping its own destiny by investing in the future, with transport infrastructure often at the heart of these investments – canals at the turn of the 18th century, the London and Greenwich railway in 1835 and the world’s first underground