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AN ABSTACT of the DISSERTATION of Louisa Evers for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Science Presented On

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AN ABSTACT of the DISSERTATION of Louisa Evers for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Science Presented On AN ABSTACT OF THE DISSERTATION OF Louisa Evers for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Science presented on November 9, 2010. Title: Modeling Sage-Grouse Habitat Using a State-and-Transition Model Abstract approved: Richard F. Miller Paul S. Doescher Habitat for wildlife species that depend on sagebrush ecosystems is of great management concern. Evaluating how management activities and climate change may affect the abundance of moderate and high-quality habitat necessitates the development of models that examine vegetation dynamics, but modeling tools for rangeland systems are limited. I developed state-and-transition models using a combination of scientific literature and data for climate, soils, and wildfire to examine how different types of natural events, management activities, changing climate, and potential future vegetation dynamics may interact and affect the abundance of habitat for the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). Specific periods examined include the era prior to 1850, the current era, and late in the 21st century in southeastern Oregon. A primary purpose of this study was to evaluate the use of climate data to define most event probabilities and, subsequently, the relative mix of ecological states, community phases, and sage-grouse habitat with an eye towards a modeling approach that was objective, repeatable, and transferrable to other locations. Contrary to expectations, model results of the conditions prior to 1850 indicated fire may not have been the most important disturbance factor influencing sage-grouse habitat abundance, merely the most visible. Other, more subtle disturbances that thinned sagebrush density, such as drought, herbivory, and weather-related mortality, may have been equally or more important in shaping sage-grouse habitat. Sage-grouse breeding habitat may have been slightly more abundant than levels currently recommended by sage-grouse biologists, brood- rearing habitat may have been as or more abundant, but wintering habitat may have been less abundant. Under the current conditions, livestock grazing during severe drought, postfire seeding success, juniper expansion probabilities, and the frequency of vegetation treatments were the most important determinants of sage-grouse habitat abundance. The current vegetation trajectory would lead to considerably less nesting, brood-rearing, and wintering habitat than sage-grouse biologists recommend. Model results suggested reducing or eliminating livestock grazing during severe drought, increasing postfire seeding success, and treating at least 10% of the so-called expansion juniper each year was necessary to maintain higher levels of sage- grouse habitat, although nesting and brood-rearing habitat remained in short supply. I examined three potential future climates based on long-term climate trends in southeastern Oregon and modeled climate and ecosystem projections for the Pacific Northwest generally. The first scenario produced warmer and drier conditions than present, the second scenario warmer and wetter conditions in winter, and the third scenario warmer and wetter conditions in summer. The implications for sage-grouse habitat abundance were very different between these three scenarios, but all would likely result in the loss or near complete loss of cooler, moister sagebrush communities important for nesting and brood-rearing. Salt desert shrub and warmer, drier sagebrush communities could expand under the first scenario but would have a high risk of displacement by cheatgrass. Juniper woodlands could increase in density and salt desert shrub may expand slightly under the second scenario. The remaining sagebrush communities would remain at high risk of displacement by cheatgrass. Pinyon- juniper woodland could largely displace sagebrush in the third scenario. Sage-grouse habitat quality likely would decline in all three scenarios and the abundance decrease significantly in the second and third scenario. Modeling Sage-Grouse Habitat Using a State-and-Transition Model by Louisa Evers A DISSERTATION submitted to Oregon State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Presented November 9, 2010 Commencement June 2011 Doctor of Philosophy dissertation of Louisa Evers presented on November 9, 2010. APPROVED: Co-Major Professor, representing Environmental Science Co-Major Professor, representing Environmental Science Director of the Environmental Science Graduate Program Dean of the Graduate School I understand that my dissertation will become part of the permanent collection of Oregon State University libraries. My signature below authorizes release of my dissertation to any reader upon request. Louisa Evers, Author ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I wish to express sincere appreciation to my supervisors David Summer, Ken Snell and Carl Gossard, for providing the opportunity to pursue this research as a part of my normal workload. Fellow employees Tom DeMeo, Sarah Crim, Tom Zimmerman, and Dave Peterson provided sound advice on getting through this process. All my co-workers and peers in Fire and Aviation Management in the Portland office, the field offices and other agencies provided abundant moral support. Lastly, I would like to thank my parents, Karl and Martha Evers, and grandfather, Robert Shaw, for always promoting the idea of life-long learning and pursuit of my dreams, no matter where they took me. I wish they were still here to see this. CONTRIBUTION OF AUTHORS Dr. Rick Miller and Dr. Paul Doescher provided advice concerning the ecology and successional dynamics of sagebrush, juniper and cheatgrass and assisted in interpreting the model results. Dr. Ron Neilson provided advice on how to use climate parameters in developing probabilities and advice on how to ponder the implications of climate change. Dr. Miles Hemstrom and Jim Merzenich provided assistance in developing model probabilities and designing the VDDT models. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1 General Introduction…………………………………………………………………………… 1 2 Estimating Historical Sage-Grouse Habitat Abundance Using a State-and- Transition Modeling Framework…………………………………………………………… 6 2.1 Introduction…………………………………………………………………………. 7 2.2 Study Area…………………………………………………………………………… 10 2.3 Methods……………………………………………………………………………….. 11 2.4 Model Design……………………………………………………………………….. 16 2.5 Results………………………………………………………………………………… 28 2.6 Discussion……………………………………………………………………………. 32 2.7 Conclusions………………………………………………………………………….. 40 3 Modeling Current Conditions for Sage-Grouse Habitat in Southeastern Oregon Using a State-and-Transition Modeling Framework…………………….. 52 3.1 Introduction…………………………………………………………………………. 53 3.2 Study Area…………………………………………………………………………… 55 3.3 Methods………………………………………………………………………………. 56 3.4 Model Design……………………………………………………………………….. 60 3.5 Results………………………………………………………………………………… 68 3.6 Discussion……………………………………………………………………………. 73 3.7 Conclusions and Management Implications……………………………… 80 4 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Sagebrush Steppe in Southeastern Oregon……………………………………………………………………………………………… 92 4.1 Introduction…………………………………………………………………………. 93 4.2 Study Area…………………………………………………………………………… 94 4.3 Methods………………………………………………………………………………. 96 4.4 Results and Discussion………………………………………………………….. 99 4.5 Conclusions and Management Implications……………………………… 117 5 General Conclusions…………………………………………………………………………….. 126 Bibliography……………………………………………………………………………………………. 131 TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Page Appendices……………………………………………………………………………………………… 163 Appendix A Sagebrush Groups and Included Plant Associations………. 164 Appendix B List of Abbreviations…………………………………………………… 168 LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 2.1 Location of the study area in Oregon……………………………………………………. 48 2.2 Model structure………………………………………………………………………………….. 49 2.3 Mix of community phases……………………………………………………………………. 50 2.4 Amount of moderate and high quality seasonal sage-grouse habitat……….. 51 3.1 Location of the study area in Oregon……………………………………………………. 88 3.2 Simplified diagram of the successional pathways for the Warm-Dry Sagebrush Group……………………………………………………………….……………….. 89 3.3 Simplified diagram of the successional pathways for the Cool-Moist Sagebrush Group………………………………………………………………………….…….. 90 3.4 Predicted abundance of seasonal sage-grouse habitat for the two sagebrush groups separately and in combination……………………………………. 91 4.1 Location of the study area in Oregon……………………………………………………. 124 4.2 Hypothetical arrangement of major cover types of the Malheur High Plateau under the current climate and three potential future climates………………….. 125 LIST OF TABLES Table Page 2.1 Characteristics of each sagebrush group including modal potential natural plant community, grass production, and sagebrush cover by community phase…………………………………………………………………………………………………. 42 2.2 Habitat suitability (low, moderate, high) for greater sage-grouse by model and community phase ………………………………………………………………………… 43 2.3 Establishment and successional rates in the absence of disturbance ………. 44 2.4 Probabilities of disturbance with each model for each applicable disturbance factor ………………………………………………………………………………………………… 45 2.5 Comparison of fire rotation between the final models, the altered fire variant, and literature 46 2.5 Relative importance of disturbance types in each sagebrush model based on the estimated disturbance rotation period…………………………………………. 47 3.1 Habitat suitability (low, moderate, high) for greater sage-grouse by model, state, and community phase………………………………………………………………… 83 3.2 Probabilities
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