Policy Issues Relating to COVID-19

Discussion Paper October 2020

Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development And Transparency Policy Issues Relating to COVID-19

Discussion Paper October 2020

Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development And Transparency PILDAT is an independent, non-partisan and not-for-profit indigenous research and training institution with the mission to strengthen democracy and democratic institutions in Pakistan.

PILDAT is a registered non-profit entity under the Societies Registration Act XXI of 1860, Pakistan.

Printed in Pakistan

Published: October 2020

ISBN: 978-969-558-758-4

Any part of this publication can be used or cited with a clear reference to PILDAT.

Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development And Transparency

Islamabad Office: P. O. Box 278, F-8, Postal Code: 44220, Islamabad, Pakistan Lahore Office: P. O. Box 11098, L.C.C.H.S, Postal Code: 54792, Lahore, Pakistan E-mail: [email protected] | Website: www.pildat.org Policy Issues Relating to COVID-19 Discussion Paper October 2020

Preface 05 Abbreviations and Acronyms 07 Profile of the Author 09 Executive Summary 11

Introduction 13

Review of Government's Response to COVID-19

- Initial policy confusion and the need for political clarity 15 - NCOC and the need for a hybrid approach 16 - Sindh government and a parallel effort against COVID-19 17 - Weak civilian institutions, their lack of capacity and the need to upgrade them 17 - Negligible role of Parliament, Cabinet and Political Parties and the need for greater 17 input from these forums - Education and the role of Provincial Governments 17 - Weak public service messaging which picked up pace at a later stage and should be 18 synchronized better with policy

Impact of COVID-19 on Key Policy Issues 19

- Education 19 - Economy 20

Key Weaknesses in Political Parties' Role 20

Recommendations 23

- Political Parties' Policy Wings, Women in Politics Support Group and Alumni of 24 Young Politicians Fellowship Programme - What can Political Parties do Now? 26

List of Figures

Figure 1: Daily COVID-19 Cases and Deaths 13 Figure 2: COVID-19: Timeline of Key Decisions 14 Figure 3: Timeline of Management of COVID-19 15 Figure 4: Geographical Breakup of COVID-19 Cases in Pakistan 16

Appendix A: Policy Template 27

Policy Issues Relating to COVID-19 Discussion Paper October 2020

PREFACEACE The Discussion Paper titled Policy Issues relating to COVID-19 and Need for Policy Formulation by Political Parties has been commissioned by PILDAT to facilitate informed understanding of the management of COVID-19 and its related policy issues in Pakistan.

Authored by Mr. Fahd Husain, renowned journalist and currently Resident Editor Islamabad of Dawn newspaper, the paper is written as an effort to frame key issues and policy questions relating to COVID-19 so that the policy wings of Political Parties, Women in Politics Support Group (WPSG) and Alumni of Young Politicians Fellowship Programme (YPFP) are able to focus on policy questions and find answers to these questions within the context and structures of their respective political parties. The paper is also developed as an effort to assist political parties on responding to COVID-19 grassroot policy issues. The paper also includes a draft template for writing a simple Policy Document that each Political Party can utilize to gauge response of its supporters in line with its ideology, manifesto and overall policies.

The discussion paper has been produced under the project titled Consolidating Democracy in Pakistan under COVID- 19.

Disclaimer Data and views contained in this paper belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views and perspective of PILDAT.

October 2020

Policy Issues Relating to COVID-19 Discussion Paper October 2020

Abbreviations and Acronyms

AJ&K Azad Jammu and Kashmir ASER Annual Status of Education Report COS Chief of Staff COVID-19 Novel Coronavirus GB Gilgit-Baltistan GDP Gross Domestic Product ICT Islamabad Capital Territory IMF International Monetary Fund ISI Inter-Services Intelligence ISPR Inter Services Public Relations KP Khyber Pakhtunkhwa MI Military Intelligence MO Military Operations NADRA National Database and Registration Authority NCC National Coordination Committee NCOC National Command and Operation Centre NDMA National Disaster Management Authority NSC National Security Committee PPP Pakistan Peoples' Party PTI Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf SAPM Special Assistant to Prime Minister SoPs Standard Operation Procedures WPSG Women in Politics Support Group YPFP Young Politicians Fellowship Programme

Policy Issues Relating to COVID-19 Discussion Paper October 2020

ABOUT THE THE AUTHOR AUTHOR

Mr. Fahd Husain Resident Editor, Islamabad for Dawn

Mr. Fahd Husain has 29 years of journalism experience working in newspapers and television both in Pakistan and abroad. During this time, he has been a newspaper reporter, Editor, columnist, TV anchor and News Director. He has also spearheaded the launch of three news channels.

At present, Mr. Fahd Husain is the Resident Editor, Islamabad for Dawn newspaper. He also writes a twice weekly column for Dawn. He is also a TV anchor and hosts a weekend prime time show for Dawn News TV. Before joining Dawn in October 2019, Mr. Husain worked as Executive Director News at Express News TV as well as Executive Editor of Daily The Express Tribune, a leading English newspaper and wrote a weekly column.

Mr. Fahd Husain began his career as a journalist at The Daily Muslim newspaper in 1991. He later worked as a political reporter and Editor of the Islamabad edition of The Nation newspaper. He also served as Associate Editor and columnist for the Dubai-based Gulf News and subsequently as the Editor of The News, a major English newspaper.

In 2002, Mr. Husain spent a year working as a producer with the leading American TV channel CBS News in New York where he was a member of the newsroom team that managed the coverage of the United States' war in Afghanistan and Iraq. Private channels launched in Pakistan in 2002 and Mr. Husain returned from the United States in 2003 and became the anchor of Pakistan's first independent English talk show on Geo TV.

Starting in 2006, as Director News he designed the entire setup for Express News channel, and established the channel as a leading news network. He also served as Director News of Express 24/7, which was, at one point, Pakistan's only 24- hour English news network. Later he also served as Executive Director News at Dunya TV. In 2013 he spearheaded the launch of Capital TV as Chief Operating Officer and Editorial head.

Mr. Fahd Husain has also hosted prime time talk shows on Express News, ARY News TV, and Waqt News TV. His international assignments include covering the US Presidential Elections in 2004 and travelling to Lebanon to cover the Hezbollah-Israel war in 2006.

Mr. Husain obtained his Bachelor's degree from the Ohio Wesleyan University USA. He has a Master's degree in Television Journalism from the Columbia University in New York, USA, where he became the first Pakistani to graduate at the top of his class and was awarded both the Pulitzer Travelling Fellowship and the Jack R. Howard Scholarship.

Mr. Fahd Husain is a regular guest lecturer at prestigious institutions and forums including Command & Staff College Quetta, School of Infantry & Tactics Quetta, National Security Workshop Balochistan, PAF Air War College Karachi, Navy War College Lahore, Civil Services Academy Lahore, National Institute Management Lahore & Islamabad as well as national universities and colleges.

Policy Issues Relating to COVID-19 Discussion Paper October 2020

EXECUTIVE SUMMAR SUMMARY Y

As Pakistan braces for a possible second wave of COVID-19, key lessons learnt can help governments, political parties and citizens to better grapple with the pandemic challenge. Compared to many other countries, Pakistan's policies have seen encouraging results since the first patient was diagnosed with the virus in the last week of February 2020. After a rapid spread of the infection from March till June 2020, the curve began to flatten after peaking in the third week of June. Since then the number of cases and deaths have decreased sharply. Something has clearly worked in Pakistan's favour.

The Federal and Provincial governments had got off to a slow start in March but official efforts picked up pace after Prime Minister Imran Khan constituted the National Command and Operations Centre (NCOC) with the aim of bringing all relevant institutions, resources and manpower under one roof to fight the rising threat of COVID-19.

The Federal Government has instituted policies by trial and error and learnt from earlier mistakes. Consequently, policies like smart lockdowns produced good results. Some key takeaways from the response include:

1. There was initial policy confusion and therefore need for early political clarity is important 2. NCOC and the need for a hybrid approach illustrates the benefits of inter-institutional coordination and apolitical decision-making based on data and hard information 3. Sindh government and a parallel effort against COVID-19 shows a greater need for inter-provincial coordination and the crucial role of the Federal government in carrying the provinces along 4. COVID-19 has exposed many aspects of our weak civilian institutions, their lack of capacity and the dire need to upgrade them 5. COVID-19 has highlighted the negligible role of Parliament, cabinet and political parties in this public health crisis and the need for greater input from these forums 6. Education and the role of Provincial governments has shown the advantages of good centre-province coordination and decision-making through consultation and consensus 7. The initial policy confusion reflected in weak public service messaging which picked up pace at a later stage and should be synchronized better with policy for future reference

Impact on Education & Economy

The two sectors in Pakistan impacted the most by COVID-19 are education and economy. The scale of the damage is significant and will require sustained and focused policymaking to mitigate it. Some ways in which this impact has taken a toll:

Education i. A learning gap has developed and widened between various strata of students as a result of online education and the inability of a large number of students to have access to it. ii. Learning levels continue to drop as a result of the gap in education. This adds to an already low standards of learning in our education iii. More children may fall out of school in Pakistan as a result of these long closure of schools iv. Learning gains from exams are lost as students have been promoted without exams v. Provinces that were already struggling in their education sectors will be impacted even more.

Economy i. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has in its latest report projected Pakistan's growth rate for 2020 at one percent ii. The major economic impact of Covid-19 is on job losses and income losses of the primarily urban labour class iii. Government revenues through taxation have also been adversely impacted due to slowdown of economic activity

11 Policy Issues Relating to COVID-19 Discussion Paper October 2020

Political Parties' Role in Tackling COVID-19

Political parties have struggled to contribute in any substantive way in the fight against Covid-19. Some key findings:

i. Political party structures as they exist have insufficient capacity to process public policy content and provide inputs to their representatives in local, provincial and national legislatures ii. The weakness of the political parties was reflected in the negligible role that the parliament played in the COVID-19 issue. It was obvious the legislators were ill-prepared for the issue and had little institutional support from their party structure.

Recommendations

1. Every party must have a functional policy planning wing 2. Parliamentary committees must play a greater role in supervising executive functions and provide policy input 3. Political parties should play a key role in public messaging and behavioural change at the grassroots level

What Can Political Parties Do Now?

1. Political parties should initiate a substantive debate in the legislatures about various aspects of our response that require greater political oversight. Parties should urge their lawmakers to bring these issues on the floor of the house for debate and possible legislation. 2. Political parties should also initiate a debate on how existing policies have impacted education and economy and whether a different approach should be adopted if the second wave of COVID-19 was to hit the population. 3. Political parties should initiate public messaging campaigns at the grassroots level to persuade the people to follow COVID-19 SoPs. This is a key challenge as citizens have gone lax in terms of SoP observations and this may spur the second wave.

Pakistan has done well in combating COVID-19. However, in the process many weaknesses within the official response and policymaking stand exposed. It is a good opportunity therefore for the Federal and Provincial governments, and especially the political parties, to recognise these deficiencies and take appropriate steps to address them in order to be better prepared for future crises.

12 Policy Issues Relating to COVID-19 Discussion Paper October 2020

Introduction

Pakistan's worst fears about Coronavirus (COVID-19) learning curve for decision-makers as they struggled to have not come true. Although every life lost as a result fight against the virus weighed down by weak of the pandemic is one too many, the scale of infections governance structures and acute political polarisation. and deaths is far lower than what was projected in the And yet in this chaos and confusion, something early months. The threat, however, is far from over. worked. There are genuine fears of a second wave and some indication of a spike in infections. The Federal Government has warned citizens to start following COVID-19 infections grew steadily but slowly in Standard Operating Procedures (SoPs) strictly. The war March and April 2020, scaled up in May 2020, against the virus will have to be waged for some time exploded in June 2020 and then decreased dramatically longer. in July 2020. The Federal Government says its smart lockdown policies worked, as did greater public This war has been instructive for the country, and awareness reflected in behavioural change during the especially for policymakers, in a number of ways. From summer. But these answers still do not explain the the last week of February 2020 when the first Pakistani sudden drop in cases. There is yet a lot that remains citizen was diagnosed with the virus to the third week unknown. of June when COVID-19 is said to have peaked, Federal and Provincial governments experienced a What is known, however, is that after a slow start, the non-ending series of crises, challenges and uncertain Federal and Provincial governments began a concerted policy outcomes. These months also witnessed a steep effort against the virus which ultimately led to

Figure 1: Daily COVID-19 Cases and Deaths

13 Policy Issues Relating to COVID-19 Discussion Paper October 2020

Figure 2: COVID-19: Timeline of Key Decisions Review of Government's Response to COVID-19

encouraging results. The first real response from the Minister himself would chair the NCC. This worked. government came in mid-March 2020 when it The participation improved dramatically. convened a meeting of the National Security Subsequently, it was decided that given the Prime Committee (NSC) which is headed by the Prime Minister's engagements, it was not possible for the Minister. The meeting took a decision about lockdown NCC to meet every day. Therefore, another body was but also took another important decision in establishing created which would meet every day and act as the lead the National Coordination Committee (NCC) as the organization for COVID-19. It was named the National central body to manage the COVID-19 issue. The NCC Command and Operations Centre (NCOC). was chaired by the Special Assistant to Prime Minister on health and included, among others, all the Provincial According to its official website, NCOC is described as chief ministers as well as relevant federal ministers, in follows: addition to all the relevant military stakeholders. “NCOC is nerve centre to synergize and articulate However, things did not go as planned as initial unified national effort against Covid-19, and to meetings of the NCC were not attended by many key implement the decisions of National Coordination people. The attendance thinned out even further in Committee on Covid-19. The centre is one window subsequent meetings as the Chief Ministers delegated operation to collate, analyse and process information their chief secretaries to attend the meetings. The NCC based on digital input and human intelligence across was not getting the traction required for the challenge at Pakistan through all provinces, AJ&K, GB & ICT hand. Power dynamics had come into play. dedicated representatives and centres.”

The Prime Minister's Office realised the existence of NCOC was constituted with the aim of leveraging the this problem. As a result, it was decided that the Prime resources, manpower and expertise of multiple

14 Policy Issues Relating to COVID-19 Discussion Paper October 2020 institutions all working as a team under one roof. The 9. Advisor to Prime Minister on Finance and staffing of the organization reflects this aim. According Revenue to the official organogram, the NCOC reports to the 10. Advisor to Prime Minister on Commerce and National Coordination Committee (NCC) which in Investment turn reports directly to the Prime Minister. The NCOC 11. Special Assistant to Prime Minister on is led by the Federal Minister for Planning, National Security Division and Strategic Development and Special Initiatives, and the National Policy Planning Coordinator for the body is the commander Army Air 12. Special Assistant to Prime Minister on Defence Command who is a three-star general. On the Poverty Alleviation civilian side, the notified members of the NCOC were: 13. Special Assistant to Prime Minister on Information and Broadcasting 1. Federal Minister for Foreign Affairs 14. Special Assistant to Prime Minister on Health 2. Federal Minister for Aviation 3. Federal Minister for Economic Affairs Chairman National Disaster Management Authority 4. Federal Minister for Federal Education, (NDMA) was also a member. Professional Training, National Heritage and Culture On the military side, the National Coordinator was 5. Federal Minister for Industries and assisted by the Chief of Staff (COS) of the Army Air Production Defence. Other regular members included 6. Federal Minister for Information and representatives from Military Operations (MO), Broadcasting Military Intelligence (MI), Inter Services Intelligence 7. Federal Minister for Interior (ISI), Pakistan Navy, Pakistan Air Force, as well as 8. Federal Minister for States and Frontier Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR). Regions

Figure 3: Timeline of Management of COVID-19

15 Policy Issues Relating to COVID-19 Discussion Paper October 2020

Figure 4: Geographical Breakup of COVID-19 Cases in Pakistan

The Provinces were represented by the respective Chief Initial policy confusion and the need for political Ministers or chief secretaries and other relevant civil clarity and military officials. Joining by video link, the COVID-19 started figuring in news cycles in Provinces would provide situation reports to the main December 2019. By January 2020, China was groaning headquarter in Islamabad and coordinate in under its pressure and by February 2020, it was clear policymaking as well as its implementation. that the pandemic was spreading fast across the globe and specifically in Pakistan's neighbourhood. Yet even One noteworthy aspect of both the NCC and NCOC is as Iran saw a spike in cases and it was well known that it the gender imbalance. In the NCC members were was only a matter of time before the infection would nominated as per designated offices and the gender appear in Pakistan, Federal and Provincial imbalance reflected the scarcity of women holding governments remained relatively slow in their important government offices. In the NCOC also, the response. Precious time was wasted in debating the same imbalance persisted. Dr. Sania Nishtar, Special pros and cons of a lockdown which led to confusion in Assistant to Prime Minister on Poverty Alleviation, and the context of 'lives vs. livelihood' framing of a Dr. Firdous Ashiq Awan, as Special Assistant to Prime response. This confusion at the top percolated down to Minister on Information and Broadcasting, were government policymaking and the administrative probably the only high profile women who participated machinery leading to half-hearted measures at a time in these meetings. when a firm handling of the situation could have saved time, and possibly lives. In October 2020, the situation is still fluid as fears of a second wave rise, but there are some key takeaways NCOC and the need for a hybrid approach from the Federal Government's response to the Pakistan's approach to the threat of COVID-19 pandemic so far. acquired a semblance of structure after the formation of the National Command and Operations Centre

16 Policy Issues Relating to COVID-19 Discussion Paper October 2020

(NCOC) in April 2020. This platform was put together Sindh government and a parallel effort against to bring in civil and military expertise under one roof. It COVID-19 was headed by a senior minister but the chief From the initial days, the Sindh government led by PPP coordinator was a serving three star general assisted by Chief Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah dealt with the a large staff of military personnel of all ranks. pandemic differently from the Centre, even though it remained part of the larger NCOC matrix. The key success of this model was that it brought all decision-makers across the Federal and Provincial The Sindh Chief Minister opted for a lockdown much spectrum together and provided them a professional before the Federal and other Provincial governments and relatively apolitical environment in which to make and continued to follow a more aggressive approach coordinated and synchronized decisions based on hard towards testing and lockdowns. Although on the data. Here ministers, doctors and generals pored over platform of the NCOC the Federal and Sindh such data every single day as it poured in from all government officials coordinated smoothly and shared corners of the country. The quantity and quality of this data and information, the overall political friction data improved with each passing week and enabled the between the PPP and the PTI leadership remained an men and women in the NCOC to extrapolate trends and obstacle and manifested itself in constant mutual projections with a greater degree of clarity. blaming. The Sindh government complained it did not get full support from federal institutions like NADRA The key takeaway from this successful use of an in terms of access to data they needed for disbursement inclusive forum is that national decision-making of relief and other Covid-19 related measures. should be based on professional input from experts, rational arguments shorn of political agendas and Weak civilian institutions, their lack of capacity and efficient use of resources based on credible data and the need to upgrade them authentic information. The military played a critical role in the success of NCOC. This means the civilian institutions were However, NCOC has forged ahead with the hybrid incapable of managing the load of the crisis on their governance model at a time when the political own. governments and civil administration were ill-prepared for a crisis of such proportions. This model of Similarly, the weaknesses of the health sector were also governance raises some critical questions that must be exposed in the crisis. Shortages of equipment in answered once the situation settles down: hospitals, lack of trained manpower including nurses and paramedics, inadequacy of medical resources and a. What key weaknesses have been identified in severe lack of coordination between various segments the political leadership's decision-making and of the health sector – all these reflected years of neglect how should they be fixed? that the health sector has faced in Pakistan. This must b. What critical weaknesses have emerged change if we are to be prepared for future public health within ministries in terms of capacity, crises. resources and planning and how should they be rectified? Negligible role of Parliament, Cabinet and Political c. Which aspects of this hybrid governance Parties and the need for greater input from these model can be integrated into regular forums workflows without disturbing the civil- At the Federal level, the entirety of decision-making on military balance within a democratic COVID-19 was handled by the NCOC. The process framework? could have been enriched with a greater contribution d. Who will ensure, and how, that right and from political parties that are organically more wrong lessons learnt from NCOC are connected to the grassroots than administrative translated into actionable decisions that are in hierarchies. turn transformed into systemic upgrades to improve our system of governance? The Speaker of the National Assembly had constituted

17 Policy Issues Relating to COVID-19 Discussion Paper October 2020

a special Parliamentary Committee on COVID-19 but strategic communication plan and implement it this committee never achieved anything substantive. forcefully across all media platforms. Other parliamentary committees also played a peripheral role in contributing to policymaking on The NCOC did manage success at a later stage with COVID-19. As a result, the Parliament had little or no public communication, but had such a campaign been role in providing serious policy input. The same applied launched in March 2020, it would have led to to the Provincial legislatures and their committees. behavioural change earlier on. The role of the Ministry They too had little or no role to play in COVID-19 of Information and Broadcasting left much to be policymaking and discourse. The debates on the floor desired – again. There is a lot that needs to be revamped of the house usually revolved around general political and reformed in the state's information machinery and point scoring and were devoid of substance that the key lessons in failure should be learnt from the Parliament should have provided through deep COVID-19 experience. deliberations and discussions at the committee level.

The Federal and Provincial Cabinets too indulged merely in formalities of approvals, etc. The Provincial governments and their administrations, however, worked closely with the military in implementing decisions in their respective areas.

Political parties too had little or no contribution. While those represented in Federal and Provincial governments and exercising executive functions still had a role, others in the opposition were by-standers during these months. This is a major flaw in our system that needs to be rectified sooner rather than later.

Education and the role of Provincial Governments This was perhaps the only major sector where the Provincial governments, through their education ministers, played a major role in determining policies for COVID-19. Federal Minister for Education led the effort in bringing all Provincial ministers on a common platform to debate, discuss and decide key issue such as school closures, examination postponements, students' promotions and schools' openings, etc. As a result, good coordination and consensus was developed between the centre and provinces leading to an absence of political friction.

Weak public service messaging which picked up pace at a later stage and should be synchronized better with policy Confusion within the Federal government in the early stages of the pandemic manifested itself in weak and unfocused public service messaging. This resulted in lack of awareness among the people and worse still a widespread belief in conspiracy theories. The official information setup struggled to design an effective

18 Policy Issues Relating to COVID-19 Discussion Paper October 2020

Impact of COVID-19 on Key Policy Issues

The impact of COVID-19 has been felt everywhere but - KP Newly Merged Districts 61% two important sectors have been impacted the most: - Punjab 82% Education and Economy. - Sindh 31% - AJK 73% Education In both categories Sindh and Balochistan trail According to officials and experts, the key impacts on other provinces. As a result of disruption due education include the following: to COVID-19, these figures are feared to be even lower in the next surveys factoring in the 1. A learning gap has developed and widened adverse impact of COVID-19. between various strata of students as a result of online education and the inability of a large 4. More children may fall out of school in number of students to have access to it. This Pakistan as a result of these long closure of will lead to exacerbating the already existing schools. Some may not return because of inequality in education. pressures to work at times of economic stress 2. Staggered opening of schools has also added while for others education may be impacted confusion to the educational sector and by one or both parents losing jobs etc. disturbed processes which have led to 5. Learning gains from exams are lost as decreased levels of learning and retention by students have been promoted without exams. students. 6. Reduction in school syllabus means colleges 3. Learning levels continue to drop as a result of will have to make those students catch up who the gap in education. This adds to an already are moving to colleges from schools. low standards of learning in our education 7. Job losses among the lower/middle income which is documented in the Annual Status of people will impact their ability to pay school Education Report (ASER) surveys. For expenses for their children. It will also impact instance, according to the latest ASER survey the availability of supplementary educational 2019, the provincial comparison of learning tools like laptops etc. levels of Class 5 (who can read a story in 8. Provinces that were already struggling in their Urdu/Sindhi/Pashto), are as follows: education sectors will be impacted even more. 9. The overall adverse impact on the national - Balochistan 48% economy means there will be less money - Gilgit-Baltistan 60% available for education budgets. Since the - Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) salaries and other fixed costs of the education 75% sector have to be paid, there will be less - Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) 55% resources available for improving quality of - KP Newly Merged districts 53% education. - Punjab 75%, Sindh 44% 10. Private sector education has also been deeply - Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) impacted and many lower cost schools have 79% been forced to shut down which means a large number of students will have to look for other The figure for Class 5 in terms of who can do schools and this will increase pressure on the division in Arithmetic: already burdened educational infrastructure. 11. A large number of teachers have lost their jobs - Balochistan 35% which will impact their ability to finance the - Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) 66% education of their children. - ICT 57% 12. Students, and especially girls, have to endure - KP 53% the social and emotional loss from school

19 Policy Issues Relating to COVID-19 Discussion Paper October 2020

closures as often schools provide the only the lockdown in the Industrial sector adds up avenue for socialization outside their homes. to an approximate Rs. 280,671 million. 13. There will be an adverse impact on 4. The major economic impact of COVID-19 is prospective earning potential of students due on job losses and income losses of the to extended closures. According to a recent primarily urban labour class. The State Bank paper, each additional year of school learning has helped by providing loans worth Rs. 225 increases life income by an average of 7.5 billion to employers for wages for their percent to ten percent. Therefore, a loss of a employees and also deferring loans worth Rs third of the school year decreases a child's life 654 billion. However, these job and income income by 3 percent (Source: The Economic losses have directly impacted savings and Impacts of Learning Losses. By Erik A consumption which in turn have contributed Hanushek and Ludger Woessmann, to slowing down of the economy. September 2020) 5. Government revenues through taxation have also been adversely impacted due to Economy slowdown of economic activity thereby further straining the ability of the government The pandemic has wreaked havoc across the globe in to spend on public sector projects that can terms of the economy and Pakistan is no exception. generate economic activity and provide jobs. Below are some key ways in which the Pakistani 6. Government's Ehsaas cash programme, economy has been affected: however, has alleviated some of the economic pain for the most vulnerable segment of the 1. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has population. According to its official website, in its latest report projected Pakistan's growth the programme was launched by Prime rate for 2020 at one percent as compared to the Minister Imran Khan on April 1, 2020 and it 2.1 percent GDP growth rate projected by the covers 12 million families with Rs. 12,000 government. allocated per family for a total budget of Rs 2. The IMF has projected inflation rate of 8.8 per 144 billion. cent compared to government projection of 6.5 per cent. Key Weaknesses in Political Parties' Role 3. The numeric impact on Pakistan's economy can also be calculated in approximation. Public health is a political issue first and an According to the data on the website of State administrative issue later. The COVID-19 handling by Bank of Pakistan, the contribution of the Pakistan, however, illustrated deeply ingrained Industrial sector in the overall gross domestic problems within this matrix. product (GDP) for the year 2019-2020 is listed as Rs. 2,416,615 million. This includes The NCOC was primarily an administrative and the time that was impacted by COVID-19. If management success and enabled an efficient use of we deduct the amount listed under state resources. However, as a temporary and “Electricity generation & distribution and Gas subsidiary body of the National Coordination distribution” (Rs. 221,054 million) from the Committee (NCC), the NCOC played the role of an total figure since this continued during implementing organization that was also outsourced COVID-19, the figure we get is Rs. 2,196,561 policymaking. One key reason was the lack of capacity million). Therefore, the daily figure (divided in the political parties to provide the kind of policy by 360 days) comes to Rs. 6,101 million). The input that is required by the government apparatus loss to the economy approximately can be when dealing with crises of this magnitude. calculated by multiplying this number by the number of days the country was under Political party structures, as they exist in Pakistan, have lockdown (From March 24, 2020 till May 9, insufficient capacity to process public policy content 2020), which comes to roughly 46 days. The and provide inputs to their representatives in local, figure arrived thus for losses accrued due to provincial and national legislatures regardless of

20 Policy Issues Relating to COVID-19 Discussion Paper October 2020 whether these parties are in government or opposition. This is a major reason why political debate on elected platforms or in public platforms displays less substantive matter and more partisan rhetoric.

The existing structure of political parties is personality driven with party offices distributed as largesse and little incentive for the party hierarchy to delve in policy matters. Legislators explain this by saying knowledge of policymaking is incentivized neither by the electorate nor by the party leaders. Their constituency performance is measured by the patronage they can provide or the services they can offer in terms of helping constituents in their daily problems. Those elected to the assemblies, therefore, tend to focus on such matters which have a direct bearing on their electoral prospects. The parties also do not expect their legislators to provide deep knowhow of policy if they can provide vocal performances on the floor of the house.

The weakness of the political parties was also reflected in the negligible role that the Parliament played in the entire COVID-19 issue. On the floor of both the National Assembly and the Senate the quality of debate and discussion on the pandemic was light on substance and heavy on rhetoric. It was obvious the legislators were ill-prepared for the issue and had little institutional support from their party structure.

Policy Issues Relating to COVID-19 Discussion Paper October 2020

Recommendations

COVID-19 should be a wake-up call for political parties to upgrade their capacities in order to find relevance in matters beyond basic electoral ones. In mature democracies, political parties form the backbone of public policy thinking and input and act as the bridge between the executive and the constituents.

Following are some steps that political parties in Pakistan should undertake to prepare themselves better for the crises of the future:

1. Every party must have a functional policy planning wing. The following should be spelt out:

i. The role of this wing should be clearly earmarked in detail. The party constitution should include this descriptive role and the responsibilities it entails. ii. The wing should be staffed adequately with people who have requisite seniority and skills. iii. The wing should also include specialists who can conduct research, collate data and liaise with their legislators in order to draft out policy recommendations for the party leadership. iv. The wing should have a public outreach section that can connect with the constituents on an issue-to- issue basis and inject constituent opinions in policy formation. v. The wing should produce policy papers for publication and general circulation that detail party policy on any given issue. It should also have the wherewithal to provide detailed information, analysis, background and context of party policy to its legislators.

2. Parliamentary committees are the backbone of our bicameral system. They must play a greater role in supervising executive functions and provide policy input. Some key steps that need to be taken include:

i. Committee chairpersons must be capacitated by their political parties to run their committees with greater clarity, information and data. This means the policy planning wings of the parties should be able to engage with such chairpersons from within their ranks and provide them with issues, ideas, content and context to make the committee proceedings outcome oriented. ii. Parties should also be in a position to provide subject specialists to the committee chairpersons who can then invite them to the meetings and utilise their expertise to come up with solid policy inputs. This was an essential ingredient for COVID-19 policy option but was never done by any committee. iii. The political parties should also help their members propose and draft legislation for macro issues like COVID-19. In the wake of this public health crisis there is a dire need for legislation that mandates an upgradation of our public health system etc. Political parties are ideally placed to provide legislators institutional input for policy generated from grassroot demands and requirements. These bills are then discussed and debated and finalised in the committees.

3. Political parties can play a key role in public messaging and behavioural change at the grassroots level:

i. COVID-19 proved the importance of public communication and the consequences of failures and success. What Pakistan utilised was a top-down approach to communication via media platforms. However, political parties can be very effective in the bottom-up approach to communication. In the case of COVID-19 political parties could have utilised their networks at the grassroots to impress upon people the critical importance of wearing masks, washing hands and maintaining social distancing. These parties were ideally placed to shape behavioural change that was the most important element in combating the pandemic. There is tremendous potential in the ability of political parties to conduct important policy messaging and communication at the level where the recipients are in direct contact with the messengers. If utilised and developed well, this aspect can go a long way

23 Policy Issues Relating to COVID-19 Discussion Paper October 2020

in strengthening the connection between political parties and constituents and also enable a more effective relaying of information within society. ii. Party legislators have access to media platforms through which they can magnify their messages. Political parties must help their legislators and various spokespeople be better prepared for public messaging which they can communicate on a regular basis using the amplification platforms of the mass media. This is especially important in terms of big national crises that require the public to be well informed. This also helps in debunking myths, falsehoods and conspiracy theories which, for instance, in the case of COVID-19 led to people underplaying the danger of the infection and then falling prey to false news.

Political Parties' Policy Wings, Women in Politics Support Group & Young Politicians Fellowship Programme Alumni These groups can play a vital role in communicating grassroots priorities to their party leaders and legislators.

1. They key to effective communication is deep and sustained engagement with the community. Presently political parties do not have formalised structures within their ranks that can build this engagement from a policy perspective. The following can contribute in this respect:

i. Regular prioritisation of key issues at a particular point is a basic requirement for these sub-groups. COVID-19 is an obvious example but at a given point there are a number of issues that are dominating political discourse and looking for policy direction that can lead to relevant legislation. When identifying such issues, special priority should be given to the preferences and requirements of the marginalized sections of society because they tend to get ignored in normal governmental processes. ii. Once the issue has been identified, members of the policy wings, women groups etc. should have a laid down process whereby they can have structured interaction with various segments of the community and record their views, demands and preferences as per their needs from the issue under discussion.

2. It is important for political parties and their policy wings to develop and document their policy positions:

i. The policy planning wings should have in place a process whereby they can identify key issues requiring a structured policy. This process should ideally combine input from the constituents at the grassroots level and deliberations with party leadership in order to synchronise prospective issues with party manifesto priorities. This process should be structured to produce policy options on a regular basis keeping an eye on issues and events that are defining the national discourse at a given time. The important factor is to focus on a bottom-up approach so that policies are developed keeping in mind the need of citizens as opposed to merely priorities of the leadership ii. The policy planning wings should document the appropriate platform for the proposed policy. The relevant people must determine the nature of the policy in order to decide whether it requires legislation; if so whether it should be a provincial or a federal legislation; or whether it is more suited to an official notification or a departmental intervention. This will enable people in the policy wing to formulate the nature of the policy in clear terms. iii. Documenting the desired outcome of the policy is critical for its effective communication. The end objective and the benefit that is aimed for the citizen should be crafted in clear terms. This will not only justify the need for formulating the policy but also determine its legislative and budgetary priority. It will also shape its political value to the party leadership. iv. Policy wings should clearly develop and document the broad parameters of the policy. This will require relevant people to consult subject specialists in order to flesh out the required details of the issue that should formulate the policy. Such documentation will form the basis of communication

24 Policy Issues Relating to COVID-19 Discussion Paper October 2020

material that will need to be disseminated to the leadership, or parliament or a wider audience. This will therefore be an inclusive document that will contain specific details and relevant data in order to draw up contours of the issue and proposed policy. v. Policy wings should also lay out the financial requirements of the policy in sufficient detail for decision makers in order for them to weigh it against other budgetary considerations. This would require crunching basic numbers and also suggesting and recommending which budgetary heads could be appropriate for necessary allocations. This will need to be documented so that basic communication carries the financial aspect for public scrutiny. vi. Policy wings should document and detail the implementation aspect of the policy by clearly identifying and earmarking which government ministry or department will be responsible for implementing the policy. It should also be spelt out how the implementing agency will fulfil this responsibility in terms of manpower, resources and requisite expertise in the relevant field of policy. This detail will enable the leadership to determine the effectiveness of implementation and whether the relevant implementers are capacitated to carry out the task at hand.

3. It is important for policy wings to be able to effectively convey adopted policy position to their representatives in the federal and provincial legislatures. The following are some key points in this regard.

i. Policy wings should put together “Policy Briefs” for their elected representatives on key policies under debate. These documents should contain all the points above (see point 2) but abridged for basic information and knowledge (detailed versions to be available for those who require it). ii. Policy wings should organize in-house “roundtables” (physical or virtual) for their legislators in order to better acquaint them with the policy under discussion and also enable a discussion on this forum for better understanding. Policy writers and subject specialists should lead the discussion so that all queries can be answered in detail and the policy is contextualized and framed properly. iii. Policy wings and subject specialists should help and guide their legislators in drawing up bills on the said policy if legislation is required. They should also facilitate their legislators in putting together agenda for their respective committees in a bid to ensure that the said bills are approved by the committee.

4. Policy wings should also assist legislators in preparing for their speeches on the floor of the house when the said policy comes up for debate. Party legislators should be prepped and the speeches should converge on to basic party policy thrust reflected through the bill. This would mean the party deciding beforehand which members will speak on the bill and what each member will say. The policy wings will then have preparatory sessions with the designated speakers so that they come to the floor armed with information, data and arguments knitted together.

i. Policy wings also need to communicate the policy effectively to the media in order to build a narrative around the policy. This would require: ii. Organising briefings for reporters who cover the relevant beats and involving them in the process by bringing them into the loop about major aspects of the policy and the reasons their political party is pushing for it. iii. Providing policy briefs (media versions) to editors, and senior media decision makers so that they are well equipped with facts and arguments in order to write or speak on the subject matter. iv. Producing infographics on policy for print, broadcast and digital formats and providing media organisations access and rights to use these graphics to support the coverage of the issue. v. Providing media organisations access to and availability of those party legislators as well as other specialists who can speak or write on the said policy on behalf of their political party

25 Policy Issues Relating to COVID-19 Discussion Paper October 2020

5. Policy wings and other sections of political parties need to pay extra focus on ensuring inclusivity in their ranks. This means they should have increasing contribution not just from women but also from marginalised segments of our society. It is only by having these groups give their perspective and bring their approach to policymaking that parties can truly claim to provide and project an inclusive perspective to their legislators and other audiences.

What can Political Parties do Now? There are clear signs that COVID-19 is spreading again after being in decline since July 2020. The NCOC has issued stark warnings that the positivity rate is on the rise. The Prime Minister has also urged citizens to strictly follow laid down SOPs. A second wave of the infection is now a real possibility. This poses fresh challenges for Pakistan and provides an opportunity to apply the lessons learnt earlier in the year. Political parties now can step up.

2. Political parties should also initiate a debate on how existing policies have impacted education and economy and whether a different approach should be adopted if the second wave of COVID-19 were to hit the population.

3. At the grassroots, political parties should digest and then magnify the view of parents about school closures and what the government can do to mitigate the adverse impact on student learning. Parties should become a conduit to bring such grassroots voices into the national arena so they can influence policy.

4. Political parties should initiate public messaging campaigns at the grassroots level to persuade the people to follow COVID-19 SOPs. This is a key challenge as citizens have gone lax in terms of SOP observations and this may spur the second wave. By activating their cadres at the union council level, parties can be very effective in bringing about a behavioural change at a time when people seem to believe the threat from the virus is over.

26 Appendix A

Policy Issues Relating to COVID-19 Discussion Paper October 2020

29 Policy Issues Relating to COVID-19 Discussion Paper October 2020

30 Policy Issues Relating to COVID-19 Discussion Paper October 2020

31 Policy Issues Relating to COVID-19 Discussion Paper October 2020

32 Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development And Transparency