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Pakistan's Strategic Environment Post-2014 i Pakistan‘s Strategic Environment Post-2014 ii Pakistan‘s Strategic Environment Post-2014 CONTENTS iii Pakistan‘s Strategic Environment Post-2014 Acknowledgements Acronyms Introduction 1 Welcome Address Ambassador (R) Sohail Amin 10 Opening Remarks Kristof W. Duwaerts 12 Inaugural Address Ambassador (R) Syed Tariq Fatemi 15 Concluding Address General Ehsan ul Haq, NI (M) 23 Concluding Remarks Kristof W. Duwaerts 31 Vote of Thanks Ambassador (R) Sohail Amin 32 Recommendations 33 CHAPTER 1 Post-2014 Afghanistan: Likely Scenarios and Impact on Pakistan Dr. Adnan Sarwar Khan 35 CHAPTER 2 The Role of Neighbours in Stabilizing Afghanistan: Focus on Iran and Pakistan Didier Chaudet 45 CHAPTER 3 Role of Regional Organisations in Stabilizing Afghanistan Dr. Bruce Koepke 62 CHAPTER 4 Dynamics of Trade Corridors and Energy Pipelines‟ Politics Dr. Shabir Ahmad Khan 71 CHAPTER 5 iv Pakistan‘s Strategic Environment Post-2014 Post-2014 US/NATO Engagement in the Region: Challenges and Prospects Major General Noel Israel Khokhar 91 CHAPTER 6 Post-2014 Challenges in Afghanistan and India‟s Role Dr. Gulshan Sachdeva 96 CHAPTER 7 US Trade-Aid Balance: Implications for Pakistan and the Region Dr. Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury 111 CHAPTER 8 The European Union as a Part of Pakistan‟s Strategic Environment? Dr. Markus Kaim 116 CHAPTER 9 Russian and Central Asian Views on Perspectives for Pakistan and Afghanistan Yury Krupnov 125 CHAPTER 10 Thaw in Iran-US Relations: Opening of Chahbahar Trade Link and its Impact on Pakistan Dr. Nazir Hussain 140 CHAPTER 11 China‟s Post-2014 Afghan and India Policies and their Respective Impact on Pakistan Dr. Hu Shisheng 149 CHAPTER 12 Peace with Neighbours: Theory and Practice Dr. Muhammad Hafeez 182 CHAPTER 13 Pakistan‟s Traditional and Non-Traditional Challenges Air Cdre (R) Khalid Iqbal 198 CHAPTER 14 v Pakistan‘s Strategic Environment Post-2014 National Internal Security Policy of Pakistan: A Cogent Counter Terrorism Policy? Khawaja Khalid Farooq 227 Contributors 235 Index 240 IPRI Publications 245 vi Pakistan‘s Strategic Environment Post-2014 Acknowledgements This volume is based on papers presented at the two-day international conference on ―Pakistan‘s Strategic Environment: Post-2014‖ held on May 28-29, 2014 at Serena Hotel, Islamabad. The Conference was jointly organized by the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) and the Hanns Seidel Foundation, (HSF) Islamabad. The organisers of the Conference are especially thankful to Mr. Kristof Duwaerts, Resident Representative, HSF, Islamabad, for his co- operation and financial contribution to the Conference expenditure. For the papers presented in this volume, we are grateful to all participants from Pakistan and abroad, as well as the chief guests and chairpersons of the different sessions. We are also thankful to the scholars, students and professionals, who accepted our invitation to participate in the Conference. The successful completion of the Conference owes much to the efforts and logistical support provided by the staff of the IPRI and the HSF. Finally, our thanks are due to all those whom it would not be possible to thank individually for their help in making the Conference a success. vii Pakistan‘s Strategic Environment Post-2014 Acronyms ABM Anti-Ballistic Missile ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations ANA Afghan National Army ANP Afghan National Police ANSF Afghan National Security Forces ANZUS Australia, New Zealand, United States (Security Treaty) APTTA Afghan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement BCIM Bangladesh–China–India–Myanmar (Forum) BJP Bharatiya Janata Party BRICS Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa BSA Bilateral Security Agreement BTC Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (Pipeline) BTI Bertelsmann Transformation Index CACI Central Asia-Caucasus Institute CAREC Central Asian Regional Economic Cooperation CBMs Confidence Building Measures CDP Combined Deterrence Plan CENTCOM United States Central Command CENTO Central Treaty Organisation CICA Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building in Asia CII Confederation of Indian Industry CNPC China National Petroleum Corporation CRP Comprehensive Response Plan ECO Economic Cooperation Organization EU European Union FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas GDP Gross Domestic Product GOP Government of Pakistan GSP Generalized System of Preferences viii Pakistan‘s Strategic Environment Post-2014 ICAR Indian Council for Agriculture Research ICBMs Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles ICC International Criminal Court ICCR Indian Council for Cultural Relations IEA International Energy Agency IMF International Monetary Fund INSTC International North South Corridor IPI Iran-Pakistan-India (Gas Pipeline) ISAF International Security Assistance Force KKH Karakorum Highway KLB Kerry-Lugar-Berman Bill KPK Khyber Pakhtunkhwa KSA Kingdom of Saudi Arabia LEAs Law Enforcement Agencies MDGs Millennium Development Goals MFN Most Favoured Nation MIRV Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation NCTC National Counterterrorism Center (US) NISA National Internal Security Apparatus NISP National Internal Security Policy NWA North Waziristan Agency PLA People‘s Liberation Army RCEP Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership RECCA Regional Economic Cooperation Conference on Afghanistan ROZs Reconstruction Opportunity Zones RRF Rapid Response Force RTA Radio Television Afghanistan SAFTA South Asia Free Trade Agreement SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organisation SEATO South East Asia Treaty Organization SIP Strategic Investment Projects ix Pakistan‘s Strategic Environment Post-2014 TAPI Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (Gas Pipeline) TPP Trans-Pacific Partnership TTP Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan UAE United Arab Emirates UN United Nations UNGA United Nations General Assembly UNSC United Nations Security Council US United States x Pakistan‘s Strategic Environment Post-2014 Acronyms ABM Anti-Ballistic Missile ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations ANA Afghan National Army ANP Afghan National Police ANSF Afghan National Security Forces ANZUS Australia, New Zealand, United States (Security Treaty) APTTA Afghan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement BCIM Bangladesh–China–India–Myanmar (Forum) BJP Bharatiya Janata Party BRICS Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa BSA Bilateral Security Agreement BTC Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (Pipeline) BTI Bertelsmann Transformation Index CACI Central Asia-Caucasus Institute CAREC Central Asian Regional Economic Cooperation CBMs Confidence Building Measures CDP Combined Deterrence Plan CENTCOM United States Central Command CENTO Central Treaty Organisation CICA Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building in Asia CII Confederation of Indian Industry CNPC China National Petroleum Corporation CRP Comprehensive Response Plan ECO Economic Cooperation Organization EU European Union FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas GDP Gross Domestic Product GOP Government of Pakistan GSP Generalized System of Preferences xi Pakistan‘s Strategic Environment Post-2014 ICAR Indian Council for Agriculture Research ICBMs Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles ICC International Criminal Court ICCR Indian Council for Cultural Relations IEA International Energy Agency IMF International Monetary Fund INSTC International North South Corridor IPI Iran-Pakistan-India (Gas Pipeline) ISAF International Security Assistance Force KKH Karakorum Highway KLB Kerry-Lugar-Berman Bill KPK Khyber Pakhtunkhwa KSA Kingdom of Saudi Arabia LEAs Law Enforcement Agencies MDGs Millennium Development Goals MFN Most Favoured Nation MIRV Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation NCTC National Counterterrorism Center (US) NISA National Internal Security Apparatus NISP National Internal Security Policy NWA North Waziristan Agency PLA People‘s Liberation Army RCEP Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership RECCA Regional Economic Cooperation Conference on Afghanistan ROZs Reconstruction Opportunity Zones RRF Rapid Response Force RTA Radio Television Afghanistan SAFTA South Asia Free Trade Agreement SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organisation SEATO South East Asia Treaty Organization SIP Strategic Investment Projects xii Pakistan‘s Strategic Environment Post-2014 TAPI Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (Gas Pipeline) TPP Trans-Pacific Partnership TTP Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan UAE United Arab Emirates UN United Nations UNGA United Nations General Assembly UNSC United Nations Security Council US United States 1 Pakistan‘s Strategic Environment Post-2014 Introduction Ambassador (R) Sohail Amin Air Cdre (R) Khalid Iqbal and Khalid Chandio his volume is based on the papers read and presentations made at the T two-day International Conference on “Pakistan‟s Strategic Environment: Post-2014” jointly organised by Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) and Islamabad office of Hanns Seidel Foundation (HSF) at Serena Hotel, Islamabad, on May 28-29, 2014. Prominent scholars and academicians from China, France, Germany, India, Pakistan, Russia, Singapore and Sweden participated in the conference. The objective of the conference was to discuss and evolve practical recommendations to meet the challenges and benefit from the opportunities in the post-2014 strategic environment of Pakistan. The proceedings of the conference are now being published in the form of an IPRI Book. A brief account of the proceedings of the Conference is given below: Pakistan has stood with the international community
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