Context and Targeting Analysis for Guatemala* Final Report
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Context and Targeting Analysis for Guatemala* Final Report International Food Policy Research Institute April 2019 Report elaborated by Manuel A. Hernandez, Francisco Ceballos, Rosamaria Dasso, Maribel Elias, and Braulio Britos * This report is made possible by the support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), USAID or the United States Government. All correspondence should be directed to Manuel A. Hernandez at [email protected]. 1 Executive Summary ▪ The overall goal of the study is to collect and analyze multiple national, regional, and local information to help identify high-priority municipalities for the development of the GFSS Interagency Country Plan 2018-2022 and guide coordinated investment by multiple US Government agencies to improve food security, nutrition, and poverty in Guatemala. ▪ The poverty rate in Guatemala is still high compared to other countries in the region (59.3% according to the last survey of living conditions ENCOVI of 2014) and has further increased in recent years both in rural and urban areas. The level of chronic malnutrition or stunting rate, a measure of long-term nutritional deprivation, has, in turn, decreased to some extent in the past years (from 54.5% in 2002 to 46.5% in 2014/15 according to the maternal and child health surveys ENSMI), but it is still among the highest in the region and higher than other countries in the world with a similar level of economic development than Guatemala. The wasting rate, a measure of short-term acute malnutrition or hunger, has remained very low (0.7% according to the ENSMI 2014/15). ▪ A correlation analysis at the municipality level indicates that the main factors associated with the level of chronic malnutrition in the country are extreme poverty and risk of frosts. These correlation patterns confirm the high association between malnutrition and poverty, i.e. municipalities with high levels of stunting are also municipalities with a high prevalence of poor people. Similarly, areas with a high risk of frosts, such as the Western Highlands, are also areas with a high level of stunting. Other indicators moderately associated with the level of chronic malnutrition are precarious employment, deficit of basic grains, and road accessibility. ▪ The study focuses on the departments prioritized by USAID and USDA, as well as by the National Strategy to Reduce Chronic Malnutrition (ENPDC). These include the departments of San Marcos, Quetzaltenango, Totonicapán, Huehuetenango, Quiche, Sololá, Alta Verapaz, and Chiquimula, which comprise a total of 163 municipalities (out of 340) and are generally the areas with the highest level of poverty and stunting in the country. ▪ The classification and ranking of municipalities in the departments of interest is based on economic criteria such as production potential and efficiency in the use of resources, which combined with the current food security and nutrition status of a municipality permits to better identify high-priority level areas and their characteristics, as opposed to other classification methods such as poverty maps or simple clustering analysis. ▪ To estimate the representative agricultural production potential of an area and its efficiency level, the analysis incorporates different market, socioeconomic, biophysical, and accessibility factors, which explain great part of the heterogeneity in rural Guatemala. This requires the combination of different data sources, including household surveys, census data, and detailed geographic and climate data. The use of advanced econometric methods in the estimations further permits to weight these different factors relying exclusively on economic theory and empirical evidence. ▪ The resulting agricultural production potential and efficiency level of a municipality is then separately combined with different food security and nutrition indicators of the municipality, including the level of chronic malnutrition, poverty, vulnerability to climate change, and vulnerability to food insecurity, to derive the corresponding rankings. The level of chronic malnutrition is based on the last National Height Census of 2015, while the level of poverty is based on the last Census of Population and Housing of 2002. The measure of vulnerability to climate change is based on a recent study by Bouroncle et al. (2017) that accounts for the degree of exposure (temperature variation), sensitivity (crop area variation), and adaptation of the population in an area. 2 The measure of vulnerability to food insecurity is based on an index derived by SESAN-MAGA (2012) that accounts for vulnerability in food security and nutrition, climatic risks, and the response capacity of the government. ▪ The reported results include the full list of municipalities ranked based on their estimated potential and level of efficiency, both nationally and in the eight prioritized departments, as well as the list of municipalities in the eight departments classified based on their potential, efficiency, and current situation in terms of chronic malnutrition, poverty, vulnerability to climate change, and vulnerability to food insecurity. Accompanying maps are included to better appreciate the results and the spatial distribution of the different categorized municipalities in the targeted areas. ▪ The study also provides a detailed profile of the categorized areas and their vulnerable and at-risk populations. The profile is based on different food security and nutrition indicators as well as demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, which have been compiled from multiple available data sources. An interactive platform has further been developed to provide a comprehensive profile for each of the prioritized municipalities. ▪ The reported ranking and classification of municipalities should be viewed as a first assessment in the design of policies for rural development and food security and nutrition in the areas of interest, which could eventually be complemented with more detailed information at the local level (if available) and interviews with key local informants (if applicable). Some of the prioritized departments were, for example, also visited to further discuss and corroborate part of the results of the analysis with the Department Directors of MAGA and their technical teams. 3 Acronyms ENCOVI – Encuesta Nacional de Condiciones de Vida ENPDC – Estrategia Nacional para la Prevención de la Desnutrición Crónica ENSMI – Encuesta Nacional de Salud Materno Infantil GDP pc PPP – Gross domestic product per capita in purchase power parity terms GFSS – United States Government Global Food Security Strategy HAZ – Height-for-Age Z-score HWZ – Height-for-Weight Z-score INE – Instituto Nacional de Estadística IVISAN – Índice de Vulnerabilidad a la Seguridad Alimentaria y Nutricional MAGA – Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganadería y Alimentación SESAN – Secretaría de Seguridad Alimentaria y Nutricional USAID – United States Agency for International Development USDA – United States Department of Agriculture WAZ – Weight-for-Age Z-score 4 1 Introduction The objective of this study is to collect and synthesize available national, regional, and local information about the current context in Guatemala related to malnutrition, hunger, and poverty, which will be used to inform the GFSS country team’s development of their five-year (2018-2022) GFSS Interagency Country Plan in their geographic Zone of Influence (ZOI) and focused populations. In particular, the study intends to help identify high-priority municipalities for the development of the GFSS Interagency Country Plan, which in turn will guide coordinated investment by multiple US Government agencies to improve food security, nutrition, and poverty in Guatemala. The idea is to establish a ranking of municipalities compatible with investment criteria in terms of potential for rural (agricultural) development of the municipality and its current food security and nutrition situation (poverty, chronic malnutrition, vulnerability, and risks), and to provide a detailed profile of the prioritized areas and their vulnerable populations. The study focuses on the Departments prioritized by USAID, USDA and by the New National Strategy to Reduce Chronic Malnutrition (ENPDC). These include the following eight departments, which comprise a total of 163 municipalities: Table 1. Prioritized departments Department Prioritized by # Municipalities San Marcos USAID, USDA 33 Quetzaltenango USAID, USDA 21 Totonicapán USAID, USDA 30 Huehuetenango USAID, USDA & ENPDC 8 Quiche USAID, USDA & ENPDC 24 Sololá USDA 19 Alta Verapaz ENPDC 17 Chiquimula ENPDC 11 In contrast to other classification methods such as poverty maps or simple clustering analysis, the context and targeting analysis described below permits to rank and classify the areas of interest based on economic criteria such as production potential and efficiency in the use of resources, which combined with the food security and nutrition status of the area permits to better identify high-priority areas and their characteristics. As shown in Figure 1 below, the analysis incorporates different market, socioeconomic, biophysical, and accessibility indicators that explain great part of the heterogeneity in rural households in Guatemala and that should be included in the design of any policies for rural development and food security