Technology Management Post-Module Assignment (PMA)

Arvinthan Venugopal MRS171011 860703-23-5499 [email protected] 017-6278785

PM Dr Astuty Amrin & Dr Roslina Muhamad UTM Razak School of Engineering and Advanced Technology Universiti Teknologi Malaysia Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER TITLE PAGE

1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Technology 3 1.2 Management of Technology 4 1.3 Classification of Technology 5 1.4 Method of Study 6 1.5 Objective of Analysis 6

2 LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Technology Forecasting 7 2.2 The Need and The Diverse Purpose of Technology 8 Forecasting 2.3 Public Transportation 9

3 DISCUSSION

3.1 Technology Life Cycle of Public Bus 10 3.2 Product Life Cycle of Public Bus 12 3.3 Transit Elevated Bus (TEB) 13 3.4 Key Factors to TEB Development 15 3.5 Difference between TEB and Low-end Bus 15 3.6 Strategic Objective and Initiatives 16 3.6.1 Strategic Objective 16 3.6.2 Initiatives 17 3.7 Technological Innovation in TEB 18 1

3.8 Critical Success Factor 19

4 CONCLUSION

4.1 Conclusion 20

REFERENCES 21

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CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Technology

Technology is a word that has a wide meaning and it could be referred to the collection of production possibilities, techniques, methods and processes in which surrounding resources are manipulated and transformed to suit the human needs. Ferre (1988) defined that technology is the practical applications of intelligence. Besides that, there is a more detailed and inclusive definition which states that that technology is any systematized practical knowledge, based on experimentation and/or scientific theory, which is embedded in productive skills, organization or machinery (Gendron, 1977).

Besides that technology is also coupled with science which is the study of why natural things happen the way they do. Technology on the other hand is the use of knowledge to turn resource into goods and services. The relations between science and technology are complex and vary considerably with the particular field of technology being discussed (Harvey, 1994)

In the early years, technology was classified that it is generally applicable and easy to recycle and reinvent (Arrow, 1962). However, Reddy and Zhoa (1990) mentioned that the initial concept of technology defers from a set of research in which it says that technology is specific to an organisation including the characteristics and performance properties of the design and production process (Sazali et. al, 2012).

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1.2 Management of Technology

Management of Technology is an interdisciplinary field that integrates science, engineering and management knowledge and practice. A research council’s report on management of technology has defined that management of technology is a field that has various discipline such as scheduling, development and application of technology proficiencies to profile and achieve the operational and strategic objective for any organisation (Shu, 2003).

Natural Science

Management Business Industrial Theory of Practice Technology

Engineering

A swift increase in the information flow and rapid technology advancement from the previous century has enabled the economy and social setting very complex and aggressive (Swathi et. al, 2013). Besides that technology management is known to provide means or ways to manage complexity, ambiguity and dynamic nature of businesses caused by the technology (Mahmood et. al, 2013)

Managing of technology is very important since there is a swift change in the technology advancement which requires multidisciplinary methods. Besides that the fast stride of technology growth has reduced the product life cycle and there is a high need to reduce time for development of product and produce more variable organisation. Furthermore there is the need to maximise effectiveness efficiently by means of new technologies and the significance of varying the management tools caused by the quick technology change (Maja, 2014).

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1.3 Classification of Technology

In the current age, technologies without doubt, are the most important field in changing our society. How technology too can be classified into various classes. As technology can advance with time, it is best to identify the correct classification for them to suit the needs of the society (Boris, 2013). Specifically, in technology-driven industries, a firm will be confronted with implementing breakthrough in various products and processes to keep sustainable competitive advantage as well as implementing converging technology in combination of existing technology to find new growth. Due to this the diversification in technology will take place. This is why firms in the current era would like to engage in multi- tech rather than a single tech (Sang et. al, 2017). However, it is best to understand the various technologies available in the market. It is depicted in Table 1 below.

Table 1: Classification of Technology

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1.4 Method of Study

The methods used to analysis this study are as below: (i) Technology Forecasting a. The need and diverse purpose of Technology Forecasting b. Technology life cycle c. Product life cycle d. Key factors to new product development e. Competitive Advantages. f. Strategic objective and initiative g. Technological innovation h. Critical Success Factor

1.5 Objective of Analysis

The objectives of this study are as below: (i) Identify what is technology forecasting (ii) Identify a current product that is able to be developed futuristically in the future (iii) Present a new product that is concerning technology forecasting

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CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Technology Forecasting

Technology Forecasting (TF) is basically applied to any effort to expect and distinguish the possible path, rate, features and outcomes of technological change, in the field of invention, innovation, adoption and use (Ayse et. al, 2008). Besides that for researches and decision makers who are involved in the technical sector, understanding the condition of their area of interest should be given the highest importance. Every research area is comprised of various subareas and essential technologies (Wei et. al, 2009). Furthermore, it uses rational processes to produce clear data to assist industry and government anticipate practical, ecological, political, and social significances of growths in technology. There are four elements in a technological forecast (Joseph, 1993):

a. A time prospect

b. A precise technology

c. Some limitations to the technology

d. A probability statement about the outcome

Primarily Technology Forecasting endeavours to bring potential future innovation into attention. Decision-makers are worried about the alluring and unfortunate impacts of quickly developing technologies. Expectation of such technology fill in as early cautioning signals previously specific technology is foreign made or produced indigenously (Steven, 2012).

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2.2 The Need and the Diverse Purpose of Technology Forecasting

The necessity for technology forecasting is vital for the ensuing reasons. It will provide us the future oriented Research and Development. Besides that through TF it will prevent of import of obsolete technologies. Furthermore through TF it will cultivate the need for technical innovation and enable us to shift towards appropriate technology. A firm which is exploiting the TF for their future expansion will see a development of exportable technologies (Rama, 2009).

Smaller companies need technology innovation in order for them to survive. Furthermore, TF is adopted into these companies to predict acceptance or dissemination of innovations, in which inputs such as rate of imitation by others and rate of reaction to advertising can be signified. These studies are mostly known as Competitive Technological Intelligence.

Globalization and technology changes are seen as two strengthening aspects that play a principal part for competitiveness of organizations. Due to this blustery environment, the appropriate expectation and prediction of these factors have been extremely important for integrating technological deviations into strategic development process.

Information technology, materials, and telecommunication services have received greatest research consideration as an application area of technology forecasting. Trend analysis, descriptive and matrices methods, monitoring and intelligence methods are utilized in these industries. Future developments from the former conditions have to be planned using a more advance and forecasting its techniques rather than using particular opinions. Its main purpose is to decrease any chances for inaccuracy or incidence of appraisal gaps (Abdou, 1977).

Within our society technologists make a vital contribution to corporate success. The role of technology is to add new dimensions to human capability by enabling us to accomplish tasks or satisfy needs which were not possible in the past. The main forecast that is vital for corporate and technologist decision is in the strategic (long term), innovative (medium term) and operational (short term) sector (Anuradha, 2003).

Thus, technology is market driven and any forecasting activity must be focussed on the market. Forecasting by technologists cannot be divorced from a consideration of market, social, economic, political as well as technological factors (Abhaysinh, 2014). 8

2.3 Public Transportation – Bus

Good living conditions are the main subject frequently discussed by local and federal government of any country. This is related to the economic condition and business beneficial situations. Citizens would want a good income level which is coupled with good local services. The main aim for development of economy is to enhance the growth of the community and create a surrounding where people can live, work and also have a great life. Due to this concerning issue, one of the most important welfare aspect is of a well- functioning public transport system that is to be considered fair and publically accessible (Vanessa, 2016).

The demand for public transportation has increased both nationally and internationally. Globally, public transit ridership increased by 39 percent between 1995 and 2014. This trend is reflected in Malaysia for example where public transportation trips have increased by over 90 percent since 1990. Several factors are contributing to the growing use of public transportation in the state. An influx of residents coupled with changing demographics has contributed to evolving needs, expectations, and desires for public transportation. A recovering economy is contributing to increased numbers of vehicles on the roadway, and public funding available to accommodate growth has not kept pace. The increasing cost of housing and stagnant wages have also left many households with less money to use for transportation (Oregon, 2016).

Public transportation offers a variety of modes of travel such as road vehicles, rail vehicles and water vehicles. In this study we will be discussing on the bus service as a mode of transportation. Commuters use busses for travelling either short or long destination, vacation or business purposes. Busses have been in service for almost 50 to 60 years in almost all countries around the world. They have been evolving through the technology with the first bus running on diesel and only having basic facilities on board. Now days busses are running on electricity and equipped with air-condition and entertainment. Although many communities now have well-developed automobile transport system, increasing automobile dependent creates a variety of problem. All this can be solved with the help of public busses. Furthermore there a variety of problems that could be solved by just hopping on a bus to reach the desired destination such as traffic congestion, parking, accidents, pollution emissions and excessive energy consumption (Todd, 2018)

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CHAPTER 3

DISCUSSION

3.1 Technology Life Cycle of Public Bus

The idea of technology life cycle (TLC) is to quantify technological variations. It comprises two proportions – the reasonable influence and incorporation in products or process – and four stages. The first stage which is the emerging stage is where a new technology with low competitive influence and low integration. In the growth stage, there will be pacing technology with high competitive impact. In the maturity stage, some of the pacing technology will turn into key technology. However as the technology loses its competitive influence, it converts to base technology (Gao et. al, 2013) The technology life cycle of a Public Bus is depicted in the image below

R&D Phase

Figure 1: Technology Life Cycle S-curve for Public Bus 10

Across the world, public bus operation plays an important role to provide transport for commuting passengers. The services are provided by different bus agencies in which these busses have evolved since it was first introduced. Based on Figure 1, the first bus was introduced in the year 1951 by Ikarus in Hungary. The first launch of this bus was for commuting passengers for short distance between city to city and it was diesel powered. Besides that this bus did not have air-condition and fitted with sliding windows (Gregory, 2005).

Moving on to the growth phase, bus manufacturers that began to manipulate the technology on invention and innovation to produce better busses which can accommodate more passengers, providing more comfort and able to travel longer distance. Single deck busses and mini bus were introduced into the market. Besides providing better service to the passengers, however the safety features in the busses needed for further upgrade such as braking system and passenger seat belts. In Malaysia for example, busses like Mini Bus or Intrakota bus were on the road (Munzilah et. al, 2012).

In order to optimally manage its business, bus manufacturers have embraced recent developments in technology which are providing great benefits to the company and customers. Besides that in the growth phase, the technology of busses further improved from manual driven busses to automatic gearing busses. Double deck busses were introduced into the market to carry more passengers around (Business 2000, 2006). The evolvements of busses through the years are shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Busses through the years However, as the technology is about to reach its maturity stage in which the technology will also be classified as key technology, further Research and Development was 11

done to enhance the technology of the busses. For example having automatic doors, more comfortable seats, handicap friendly busses, hybrid busses and GPS tracked busses.

3.2 Product Life Cycle (PLC) and Technology Adoption Cycle (TAC) of Public Bus

A product lifecycle approach helps bus manufacturers comprehend and reduce the effects at every stage of the vehicle’s life, while capitalizing the utmost effort in focusing areas of maximum possible impact. Besides that describes the adoption of products and services through an analysis of the buying personalities common within each stage of the cycle (Wohlers Report, 2002). The PLC is divided into five major stages namely development, market penetration, growth, product market saturation and decline. The TAC on the other hand is divided into innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority and finally the laggards. The PLC and TAC is depicted in Figure 3 below.

Figure 3: Product Life Cycle and Technology Adoption Cycle for Public Bus

In the context of public bus, the PLC graph which depicts growth stage vs sales can be linked with the number of passengers using the service vs increment of number of busses. In the early stage of Research and Development and Introduction of bus service to the public, many people seem to be sceptical in using them due to pricing and number of busses 12

available on the road. Besides that the route of these busses too might not reach the society in the rural areas (Dusan, 2014).

In the growth stage, as more companies seem to penetrate the market, people are welcoming public transport and there is an increase in the number of passengers. This may be due to the number of routes it is plying plus the comfort and incentives given to passengers. This can also be seen in the TAC graph in which the group of early majority make up the biggest number of people using the service.

High level demand constantly able to saturate the production capacity of bus manufacturer’s plant is the most desirable situation. This can be seen in the maturity stage in which the number of passengers will start to decline as it enters the decline stage as well. This may be due to the increment and preferment of using their private vehicle for travelling. This paves the path for manufacturers to introduce a greater diversity of models which will attract more customers.

3.3 Transit Elevated Bus

With the increase of traffic on the road and increase in the population, it has created a bigger demand for a better transportation infrastructure. However most countries can’t afford such high budget or don’t have much space for developing road and rail. The current transportation system which have been developed are going into the phase of transformation. The latest bus technology which is the Transit Elevated Bus (TEB) has emerged to help optimize the usage of roadway besides savings in billions of funds for specific infrastructure expansion. Besides that with this technology, it will be a benefit in both the environment and economic sector (TEB, 2015).

In most of the countries, there are usually four main transportation modes which are usually the subway, Light Rail Transit (LRT), Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and normal bus (Arun, 2016). In the case of TEB, it will further enhance the transportation system by incorporating the advantages of BRT and subway more of transport technology which can be adopted in cities with highly congested roads. TEB will be the ultimate solution to the traffic jams and pollution issues. Furthermore congestion once which was an alarming issue will now be a history with the integration of TEB technology.

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There are 2 options available for the operation of the bus on the road; rails can be built at the edges of both sides of the lanes in which the bus will travel, or as another option is to have a special lane with painted indication which will be used for autopilot bus. It is electrically powered traveling at average 60km/h. The cost of construction is less than one fifth that of a subway and the construction period can be completed in a year. The TEB is operated using electric either with battery or solar panel as a backup. This will not have any electrical lines built over it. The cost of construction is much lower than the subway and construction time will be around 1 year.

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Figure 4: Transit Elevated Bus (TEB)

Since the height of the bus is elevated above the road, it will allow other vehicles to pass under it without any restriction. The bus would run along any route that is passable by its width and height. Its passenger’s section covering the width of two traffic lanes. Passengers will experience a ride which is similar to riding in the upper level of a double decker bus. The passengers can come on board or get down from at the stations at either side of the road. This will reduce the needs to build pedestrian bridge. Besides that the platform of the bus floor will be of the same level with the stations platform floor or using stairs which descends through the roof of the bus from a station similar to a pedestrian overpass.

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The bus will use electrical power either battery or solar panel. It will travel at up to 60 km/h. Different versions will ferry almost 1,200 passengers, with the bigger versions being able to go around curves. It is also equipped with alarm to warn other vehicles which travel too close to it or when it wants to make a turn. It also comes with inflatable evacuation slides similar to those of an aircraft in case of an emergency. Other features which includes sensors which will prevent the bus from hitting into a person or object, warning lights to ensure over height vehicles do not pass under, repeater traffic signal to show the traffic signal which is upfront besides an light display to simulate stationary object which will enable drivers underneath from getting disorientated.

3.4 Key Factors to Transit Elevated Bus Development Significant research has been conducted regarding the benefits of Transit Elevated Bus. They are as below: a. Relief of Traffic Congestion - TEB can save road space by utilizing the vehicle upper layer for passengers. The design can reduce 25% to 35% of congestion caused by BRT (Bus Rapid Transit) directly or indirectly.

b. High Efficiency & Large Passenger Capacity - Each TEB can carry 1,200 passengers. Based on 40 vehicles and 40 km round-trip, it could carry about 400,000 passengers daily. The maximum speed is 60 km/h and the average speed is 40 km/h.

c. Reduction of Air Pollution & Carbon Emission - TEB is powered by electricity. The average fuel consumption of each bus is 21.6t per year, and the estimated carbon emission of each bus is 66t. 40 city buses can be replaced by just one TEB for its lower emissions which will directly reduce 864t of fuel consumption and 2640t of carbon emission.

d. Low Costs & Short Construction Period - TEB has several features and functions that are similar to subways. The average costs of construction of a subway are approximately $100 million USD per kilometer, but the average costs of construction of the TEB are estimated to be $20 million per kilometer.

3.5 Difference between Transit Elevated Bus and Low-end bus

There are many definitions which relates to TEB but most of them say that TEB is a bus-based system that impersonate the high-capacity, high-performance characteristics of city rail system but at a lower price. Besides that it is also said that TEB is of high quality transit 15

system that will have quick delivery, comfortable and a more cost efficient urban mobility with the implementation of right-of-way infrastructure, quick and regular operations and excellent marketing and customer satisfaction compared to Low-end bus (Wright and Hook, 2007).

Table 2: Difference between Transit Elevated Bus and Low-End Bus

3.6 Strategic Objective and Initiatives

3.6.1 Strategic Objective

The vision of introducing the Transit Elevated Bus is to set out a sustainable community strategy along the three themes of People, Place and Prosperity. In order to align this vision with the wider context of national and local policy, a strategic objective will be set. The strategic objective that was determined when the initial plan to invent the TEB was launched is as below: a. People – to enable the society to travel using efficient and reliable transport system

b. Place – to improve connections within and between neighborhoods through efficient transport system

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c. Prosperity – to thrive the economic area through excellent transport connection

3.6.2 Initiatives

Table 3: 1st Strategic Objective and Initiative

Table 4: 2nd Strategic Objective and Initiative

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Table 5: 3rd Strategic Objective and Initiative

3.7 Technology Innovation in Transit Elevated Bus

Swinging around the city comes with some challenges and some joys. Every day the public transit systems are innovating in ways that make the journeys the people go on become more efficient, more pleasant or ideally, both. Sometimes it’s easy to see what the city transit needs, but it’s what we may not think of that could be the real future of public transit. All these innovation is done to enhance customer service and optimise the companies operation. The new approaches that have been identified to fit local scenario are stated below:

a. Driverless System – Driverless system seems to be making its way in most transportation system. Currently in the train system and in the future into the bus system as well. This fully automation system is managed using the Central Operations Center (COC) which has a minimum number of crew. Through the usage of closed-circuit cameras, the COC is able to observe the movement of the vehicle in real-time situation and bringing the passengers safely to their destination with better punctuality than other manned transportation.

b. Onboard Wi-Fi service – Passengers will be able to enjoy the wireless internet service for free onboard all the trains and at the station, thanks to the interactive digital waypoints. The kiosks serve not only to offer waiting travelers with Wi-Fi, but they also offer continuous updated transit arrival times and provide transit officials with key data to assist in running operations smoothly.

c. Onboard cafe – Since majority of the passengers use busses to get from home to work, it is also a wise choice to have a café onboard. This would allow the passengers to grab a snack or coffee during the rush hour.

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d. Electrical Charging points – Passengers are seeking new ways to make their bus journey more enjoyable. Busses will be fitted with USB, 3-pin and wireless charging sockets. These outlets will give passengers the chance to connect and recharge their mobile phones or laptops while they commute, to extend their battery life.

e. Road Sweeping – Since the bus is elevated, it allows vehicles to pass under it. Besides that the busses can be fitted with road sweeping capabilities to ensure that the roads in the city are clean. This technology would have a high powered suction vacuum that will remove any foreign objects on the road and keeping it clean.

3.8 Critical Success Factor

(i) Running ways – The TEB operates primarily in exclusive transit-ways or dedicated bus lanes. (ii) High technology bus – The bus is equipped with the state-of-the art technology in terms of operating system and customer service. (iii) Institutional Dimension – The TEB system will improve the transportation system in a city. (iv) Social Dimension – Enhancing the mobility of the community and resolving the problem of traffic congestion. (v) Economic Dimension – The value added services on board and at the stations such as café and billboards will provide more job opportunity and marketing for the community and companies. (vi) Ecological Dimension – Through the implementation of TEB, it will reduce the emission of greenhouse gasses and pollutants since the TEB operates on full electrical energy. Once the older version of busses has been fully decommissioned from the road, TEB will be the ultimate public transportation on the road and maximise on the conserving of the ecosystem.

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CHAPTER 4

CONCLUSION

4.1 Conclusion

The future for Transit Elevated Bus is set to be bright. Due to increase in the number of vehicles on the road which worsens the traffic conditions, many developing countries have made high investment in high performance transportation system compared to before. Concern over long term environmental and fiscal impacts due to dependant on car and other motor vehicle with the global initiative to curb gas emissions has favoured a world of expanded transit services. The future of population growth in the 21st century will be in favour for TEB.

For big cities, the selection between TEB compared to urban rail is much more cost and operation effective. In cities such as Beijing, Los Angeles, Delhi, Seoul and Kuala Lumpur, TEB should be able to integrate with the current public transportation system to create an efficient system that covers a large area. TEB can be a substitute or compliment for present particular type of transport mode. As cities, household’s structures, neighbourhood designs, societal values, and lifestyle choices continue to diversify, a more efficient and cost effective landscape of transport is needed in which it should provide a good set mobility options at a lower cost. Understanding the full impacts of TEB is becoming increasingly important, as most country would like to further enhance the development and living standards of the community. .

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