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SECRETARIA DE ESTADO DE ECONOMÍA, MINISTERIO SECRETARÍA GENERAL DE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA DE ECONOMÍA Y ECONOMÍA INTERNACIONAL Y HACIENDA SUBDIRECCIÓN GENERAL DE ECONOMÍA INTERNACIONAL CUADERNO DE DOCUMENTACION Número 90º ANEXO VII Alvaro Espina Vocal Asesor 1 de Marzo de 2010 BACKGROUND PAPERS: 1. New Articles, The Economists’ Voice: Ferguson, Thomas and Johson, Robert (2010), “The God that failed: free market fundamentalism and the Lehman Bankruptcy”; Schularick, Moritz (2010) “The End of Financial Globalization 3.0”;Hahn, Robert and Passell, Peter (2009), “Is trillion the new billion?,” New Articles The Economists’ Voice by The Economists’ Voice …6 2. Good and boring, The New York Times by Paul Krugman…7 3. Morgan Stanley Europe chairman says bankers were as unpopular in Davos as “terrorists”, , Finfacts Ireland by Finfacts Team …9 4. China’s manufacturing PMI hit a survey high in January; India’s manufacturing sector expanded at fastest pace for nearly one-and-a-half years, Finfacts Ireland by by Finfacts Team …13 5. Bankers try to fight off wave of controls, FT.com by Patrick Jenkins and Gillian Tett…16 6. Mania on the Mainland, BusinessWeek by Dexter Roberts…18 7. Irish manufacturing output fell in January as freezing weather conditions hit operations, Finfacts Ireland by Finfacts Team…22 8. EU wants Greece to cut wages, Collegio Carlo Alberto…24 9. EU call for Greece to cut public sector pay, FT.com by Tony barber and Kerin Hope…26 10. Paris pledges cuts to reduce deficit, Ft.com by Peggy Hollinger…27 11. What the eurozone must do if it is to survive, FT.com by Wolfgang Munchau…28 12. Europe set to be worse hit by loan drought, FT.com by Ralph Atkins…30 13. IMF chief says many of world’s leading economies fooling themselves on foreign export demand driving their recoveries, Finfacts Ireland by Michael Hennigan…32 14. Henry Paulson’s book offers a glimpse inside the economic crisis by Zachary A Goldfarb…36 15. Eurozone annual inflation is expected to be 1.0% in January; ECB says bank lending will remain tight in Q1 2010; M3 was negative again in December, Finfacts Ireland by Finfacts Team …38 16. Eurozone economic sentiment still buoyant, FT.com by Stanley Pignal…40 17. The Ring of Fire, Investment Outlook by Bill Gross…41 18. Beef Bowl Economics, The New York Times by Hiroko Tabuchi…46 19. Where exit should be an oxymoron: The Bank of Japan, Global Central Bank Focus by Paul McCulley and Tomoya Masanao…49 20. Let’s get fisical, Investment Outlook by Bill Gross…53 21. España cotiza a la baja en Davos, El País.com de Claudi Pérez…57 22. Pensiones: la hora de la reforma es ahora, El País.com de Luis Garicano y César Molinas…59 23. La reforma de las pensiones amplía la base de cálculo de la cotización, El País.com …60 24. ¿Podemos permitirnos no reformar el mercado laboral?, El País.com de Javier Andrés y Rafael Doménech…61 25. Las actividades que más puestos de trabajo ofrecen son educación y servicios, El País.com de Carmen Sánchez-Silva…63 26. ¿Qué reforma laboral?, El País.com de Valeriano Gómez, Ignacio P Infante, Santos M Ruesga Fernando Valdés…65 27. Las pensiones revolucionan el diálogo social, El País.com de Lucía Abellán…67 28. ¿Qué explica la resistencia a la reforma laboral?, El País.com de JJ Dolado F. Felgueroso y M .Jansen …69 29. Los contratos indefinidos y sus costes, El País.com de C. García Serrano y M. A Malo…71 30. La marcha de los pavos reales, El País.com de Paul Krugman…73 31. Parece que el Gobierno se pone las pilas, El País de Angel Laborda…75 32. 4.326.500 problemas sin resolver, El País.com de Manuel V. Gómez…77 33. Cortejo nupcial entre gestoras, El País.com de David Fernández…82 34. Hay riesgo de repetir errores por el dinero barato, EL País.com de Alicia González…85 35. Regreso al futuro en las finanzas, El País.com de Harold James…88 1 36. La resaca va a ser dura, pero España no es Grecia, El País.com de C.P.…90 37. Financial system reform from first principles, Vox de Alberto Giovannini…92 38. Too interconnected to fail = too big to fail: what is in a leverage ratio?, Vox de Daniel Gros…94 39. Who fell in 2009: those with current account deficits or with extra froth?, Vox by Ashoka Mody…98 40. The recession will be over sooner than you think, Vox de Nicholas Bloom and Max Floetotto…103 41. Obama needs to teach the public how to get out of the mess we’re in, but he’s not, Beta roubini Robert Reich…106 42. Obama wants to limit government spending despite high unemployment and a fragile economy, Beta Roubini by Mark Thoma…108 43. The People’s Bank of China and the Road not taken, Roubini Global Economics by Adam Wolfe and Rachel Ziemba…110 44. The Greece Dilmma: sovereign debts imperiling the euro and challenging EU ties by Arnab Das, Elisa Parisi-capone and Natalia Gurushina…113 45. Comparing 2010 growth forecasts for major economies by Rachel Ziemba, Elisa-Capone, Christian Menegatti, Arpitha Bykere, Bertrand Delgado and Mikka Pineda…113 46. Monetary policy and asset bubbles in 2010, Beta Roubini Global Economics by Joseph E Gagnon…114 47. Bailout time, Collegio Carlo Alberto…116 48. Greek burdens ensure some Pigs won’t fly, FT.com by Daniel Gros…118 49. Vice-premier defends Chinese policy, FT.com by David Pilling …120 50. Leadership questions shape Davos talks, FT.com by Gideon Rachman…122 51. Trichet holds cards in finance debate, FT.com by Chris Giles…124 52. Calls for a new Bretton Woods not so mad, FT.com by Gillian Tett…126 53. Martin Wolf in Davos: The French world orden, Financial Times by Martin Wolf…128 54. Calls for a new Bretton Woods not so mad, FT.com by Gillian Tett…130 55. Volcker has the measure of the banks, FT. com by John Gapper…132 56. An early warning system for asset bubbles, FT.com by Charles Roxburgh and Susan Lund…134 57. The looming deleveraging challenge, McKinsey&Company by MCKinsey Global Institute…136 58. How not to select the ECB President, Collegio Carlo Alberto by Franceso Giavazzi…140 59. It’s crunch for the euro area. The markets are turning on Greece and Portugal, Collegio Carlo Alberto…142 60. Chinese whispers drive up Greek yields, FT.com by Tony Barber, David Oakely and Kerin Hope…144 61. Why we should expect low growth amid debt, FT.com by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff…154 62. British Central Banker favors splitting bib banks, The New York Times by Landon Thomas Jr…156 63. China Central Banker Zhu says stable Yuan important (Update1), Bloomberg.com by Rob Delaney…158 64. Housing recovery could take a decade, economists warn, The Washington Post, by Renae Merle…159 65. Reino Unido sale a duras penas de la recesión, El País de W. Oppenheimer…161 66. Greece woes China to buy bonds, Collegio Carlo Alberto… 67. Juncker ne veut pas porte le chapeau du désaccord franco-allemand, Les Echos.fr de Georges Gobet…164 68. Wolfgang Munchau- Griechenland ist uberall by Wolfgang Munchau…166 69. Wolfgang Munchau –Griechenland ist uberall by Wolfgang Munchau…167 70. A principled Europe would not leave Greece to bleed, Guardian.co.uk by Joseph Stiglitz…168 71. Roubini never more pessimistic on euro area, calls Spain a Risk, Bloomberg.com by Simon Kennedy and Thomas R Keene…170 2 72. Swaps Trading surges as nacional deficits rise: Credit markets, Bloomberg.com by Shannon D Harrington and Abigail Moses…172 73. Weber says ECB may take further exit steps in first half, Bloomberg.com by Francine Lacqua and Simone Meier…175 74. Banks reviving synthetic bets as Volcker blasts default swaps, Bloomberg.com by Shannon D Harrington and Pierre Paulden…176 75. Existing-home sales take a big fall in December, The Washington Post by Renae Merle…179 76. Greek crisis over, Collegio Carlo Alberto…181 77. Greece Raises $11.3 billion offering “Generous” Bonds yields, Bloomberg.com by Caroline Hyde, Anchalee Worrachate and Sonja Cheung…183 78. German Business Confidence May Rise to 18-Month high in January, Bloomberg.com by Gabi Thesing…185 79. The Californian solution for the Club Med, FT.com by Charles Goodhart and Dimitrios Tsonomos…187 80. A Payroll tax break for Jobs, The New York Times by Charles E. Schumer and Orring G Hatch…189 81. Obama’s credibility gap, The New York Times by Bob Herbert…191 82. Fareed Zakaria Obama should act more like a president than a primer minister, The Washington Post, by Fareed Zakaria…193 83. Supreme court ruling calls for a populist revolt, The Washington Post by E.J. Dionne Jr… 195 84. New DLC report: census data exposes lost decade’ for United States, …197 85. European Commission says survival of euro at risk, Collegio Carlo Alberto…198 86. The Bernanke Conundrum, The New York Times by Paul Krugman…200 87. Know your feds, The Conscience of a Liberal…201 88. Geithner: Banks with privilege must limit risk, PBS Newshour…204 89. New Yok fed documents reveal more detail about AIG bailout, The Washington Poste by Brady Dennis…207 90. Banques: le plan Obama correspond aux positions de la France, Les Echos.fr…209 91. Expectativas cautelosas, El País.com…210 92. Pedagogía de la crisis, El País de Emilio Ontiveros…211 93. Malos, pero mejores tiempos, El País de Carlos Gómez…213 94.