Climate Change on Mountain Glaciers: Consequences for Water Resources Steven Rubin

Scientists already understood the implications of the industrial world in The 1950s: Our industrial civilization has been pouring carbon dioxide into the atmosphere at a great rate. By the year 2000 we will have added 70 percent more Actually carbon dioxide to the 300% atmosphere. If it remained, it would have a marked warming effect on the earth’s climate, but most of it would probably be absorbed by the oceans. Conceivably, however, it could cause significant melting of the great icecaps and raise sea levels in time. Only 30% About 10 cm And is causing Since the 1950s acidification National Academy of Sciences (USA), 1958 Mount Cheops Cirque Glacier Glacier National Park of Canada & Rogers Pass National Historic Site of Canada Geography 477 Field Studies in Physical Geography The Effect of Climate Change on Mountain Glaciers: Consequences for Water Resources Steven Rubin Mount Cheops Cirque Glacier An Investigation of a Small Debris‐Covered Glacier • BACKGROUND •Location •History •The significance of Cheops’ ice in the Selkirks •Climate change •Micro climate: how & why these glaciers exist •Influence of debris cover (=lag time) • METHODS / RESULTS •Site selection: a small cirque glacier •Field mapping: very basic survey •Hydrological baseline study •Imaging: false colour and air photos : Comparison to Illecillewaet •Visualization: profile and map including discharge • DISCUSSION •Water: Our common future •Little vs. Big glaciers •What are the implications of Climate Change? • CONCLUSIONS •Limitations •Significance of: micro climate, debris cover, hydrological baseline studies • Repeat photography : visualizing climate change Location • The Columbia Mountains : West of the Rockies oPurcells, Selkirks, Monashees and Cariboos oWetter and warmer than the Rockies • Glacier National Park: On the Trans‐Canada Highway between Revelstoke and Golden o1350 km2 encompassing parts of the Selkirks and Purcells, including Mount Cheops • The glacier is on the north slope of the mountain, and is accessed via the Balu Pass trail • The Balu Pass trail climbs up starting from the Glacier Park Lodge and Rogers Pass Discovery Center • Runoff from the Cheops glacier enters Connaught Creek, adjacent to the trail oWater is heavily sedimented in the creek on the way up to Balu Pass, but is clear after the Cheops drainage confluence •Transportation: o 4,000,000 people drive through the park each year, 15% of them stop to experience the park oCPR mainline operates about 15,000 trains per year trough Rogers Pass (Parks Canada) Parks Canada History • 1871: British Columbia agrees to join Canada with the understanding that a railway from coast to coast will soon be developed • 1872: Sir Sandford Fleming, chief CPR surveyor proposes crossing the great divide at Yellow Head Pass – Between Edmonton and Prince George • 1881: Major A.B. Rogers was hired to find a pass further south • Rogers understood before construction began that avalanche danger would be extreme through the pass, and suggested a tunnel under the most hazardous area. The CPR ignored the suggestion and built the railway over the summit of the pass, along the base of Mount Cheops • March 1910: A massive avalanche forced the CPR to reconsider the hazards on the summit. 62 workers were killed by an avalanche that started high on Mount Cheops • 1913: construction began on the Connaught tunnel under the pass, which opened in 1916 • Construction of the Trans‐Canada Highway began in 1956, and opened in 1965, giving access to the pass to millions of travellers and visitors per year. It is now home to the world’s largest avalanche protection system • 2003: 6 students and 1 teacher from a school in Calgary were killed by an avalanche that started near the summit of mount Cheops • “Tremendous amounts of human energy and money are spent holding the highway’s position in the pass; and every winter, the timeless forces of snowfall and avalanche batter away at the defences. The snow war goes on.” (The Snow War, Parks Canada) The Significance of the Mount Cheops Glacier This is a very small glacier, and is therefore very sensitive to climate change. False Colour Satellite Image Cheops Surface Area & Discharge Comparison: Cheops and Illecillewaet *Measured by Hayley and Karilynn CLIMATE CHANGE • On the global scale, air temperature is considered to be the most important factor controlling glacier retreat • For a typical mid-latitude glacier, a 1°C temperature rise would have the same effect as much greater decreases in cloudiness (by 30%) or precipitation (by 25%) • In several areas, the climatic anomalies have been strongly influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The warm (El Niño) phase of ENSO, influencing the phase of precipitation at the altitudes of the glacier accumulation zone has become more intense, more frequent, and more long-lasting in recent decades (IPCC, 2001) Some more climate change facts (from ICPP, 2001): •Since the 1970s, winter snow depth and spring snow cover have decreased in Canada, particularly in the west, where air temperatures have consistently increased (Brown and Braaten, 1998) •The April 1st snow water equivalent (SWE) has decreased by 15–30% since 1950 in the western mountains of North America, particularly at lower elevations in spring, primarily due to warming rather than to changes in precipitation (Mote et al., 2005) •Changing runoff from glacier melt has significant effects on ecosystem services. Biota of small-watershed streams sustained by glacial melt are highly vulnerable to extirpation •Populations dependant on glacial and snowpack melt water are extremely vulnerable to water shortages. For example, much of the west coast of North America depends on melt waters for their drinking, agricultural and industrial water From Climate Change to Micro Climate Aspect Topography Mechanical Weathering Snow accumulation Debris cover high on the glacier: Silt to boulders Lots of rock on what appeared to be the snout ~ 50 m down slope from what appeared to be the snout Effects of debris cover: An example from one of Jim’s papers: Wenkchemna Glacier: Ablation Complex and Rock Glacier in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, 1977. The glacier “is a product of a unique geomorphic‐climactic system where a large mountain wall of northerly exposure produces a glacial micro‐climate, a freeze‐thaw weathering environment, a high rockfall frequency, and copious avalanche activity that led, in turn, to a thin, active mass of glacier ice that is preserved by a cover of rock debris. The behavior of the Wenkchemna Glacier has lagged behind that of surrounding glaciers by at least 70 years.” Hummocky ablation morrains are typical of glacial stagnation Air photos Cheops Cirque Is this glacier in transition to a rock glacier stage? It looks like it. How does lag time created by debris cover effect water resources? Deceivingly large: 450 m from the headwall, and ~1 km of debris covered ice behind me Rock is buried throughout the glacier And fills crevasses Last winter’s accumulation sitting on top of a dirty layer In the News: The media is still debating the truth behind Climate Change Some people, and big businesses, are not entirely convinced Repeat photography of alpine glaciers is shocking! This can be a great tool to raise awareness and increase interest (and funding) for climate change studies in the mountains There is growing awareness, and more and more studies and projects attempting to create powerful visualizations of climate change in action Here are some examples: Shepard Glacier Glacier National Park (Montana) From Legacy in Ice, 1983 My scientartist heros! Extreme Ice Survey James Balog, Founder EIS with his custom built collection of time lapse cameras deployed around the world 2 quick videos, and… Thank you! French Alps ~ 65 cm / day.

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