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Economic Tendency Surveys

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Economic Tendency Surveys Economic Tendency Surveys Regional Workshop on Short-term Economic Indicators and Service Statistics to Support 2008 SNA Implementation 25 – 27 September 2017 Chiba, Japan National Statistic Office of Mongolia Objectives of the presentation .Introduction .CCI (consumer confidence survey) • Sampling • Questionnaire • Result Introduction . The impact of the global economic crisis was felt in the Mongolian economy by the end of 2008. In this context, information on current economic situation and future trends, particularly the way the Mongolians are evaluating the economic situation and the expectations of the foreseeable future. As a result, consumer confidence index surveys were conducted in April 2009 in order to determine how Mongolian households are evaluating the current economic situation and the extent to which they are optimistic, analyzed and communicated to the public. CCI (consumer confidence survey) Consumer confidence survey • The National University of Mongolia's School of Economics was conducted in 2009-2013. CCI has been conducted on yearly basis • National Research and Consulting Center Co., Ltd- was conducted in 2014-2016. CCI has been conducted on a quarterly basis. CCI (consumer confidence survey) . The survey suggests that consumers expect current and future business prospects, availability of jobs, price levels, interest rates, housing prices and exchange rates expectations of what will happen in the next 6 months-1 year. CCI (consumer confidence survey) Sampling . 2009-2013 • Ulaanbaatar-Sample survey • 2 stage sample survey •1st stage: 40 khoroos •2nd stage: 25 household from each selected khoroo • Baganuur, Bagakhangai, Nalaikh (12 khoroo, 6%) . Since 2014 • National Level • Sample size-1000 households CCI (consumer confidence survey) Decisions on household consumption and savings are dependent on how well the households are concerned about the overall economy and the near future. – Central Bank – Government – Financial institutions – Manufacturers CCI (consumer confidence survey) Questionnaire • The questionnaire consists of 6 chapters: – the current economic situation – expectations about changes in the near future – consumer purchasing trends – price-level change forecast – views of public policy – household characteristics CCI (consumer confidence survey) Calculating index 2Gi Ii 100 (Gi Bi ) The value of the integer between 0 and 200 is greater than 100 and assuming that trust is good and low, the trust is poor. Consumer Confidence Index – Present situation index – Expectation index CCI (consumer confidence survey) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 Present Situation Expectations Consumer Confidence Index GDP and Consumer confidence index 140 25.0 120 20.0 100 15.0 80 10.0 60 5.0 40 20 0.0 0 -5.0 2009Q3 2010Q3 2011Q3 2012Q3 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 GDP growth CCI Expected inflation 6 or 12 months ahead 7 6.5 6 5 4.4 4 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.5 3 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.5 2 2.2 2.0 1.5 1 1.0 0 0.05 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 ‐1 -1.2 -1.0 ‐2 -1.7 ‐3 inflation, 6 months Expected inflation 6 months ahead 12 10.7 10 9.3 9.6 8.6 8 8.25 7.3 6.6 6.7 6 5.9 4.9 4 3.5 3.6 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.1 2 1.7 1.6 1.1 0 -0.1 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 ‐2 inflation, yearly Expected inflation 12 months ahead CCI: Expectations and economics The study of the CCI provides information that is consistent with the reality of changes in the near future. • Inflation • Housing prices Thank you for your attention.
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