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Kompendium 5.0 Abschnitt Elektroautos Kompendium 5.0 Electric cars section Electric cars: Very different markets New registrations and best-selling models in the year 2020 New registrations BEV/PHEV: 302,929 New registrations BEV/PHEV: 105,709 1. Tesla Model 3 2. Tesla Model Y 1. Audi e-tron Market share 3. Chevrolet Bolt 2. Tesla Model 3 2.1% 4. Tesla Model X 3. Volkswagen ID3 5. Tesla Model S Market share 4. Nissan Leaf 78.8% 5. Hyundai Kona EV World 2020 3,124,793 New registrations BEV/PHEV: 1,045,831 New registrations BEV/PHEV: 1,246,289 Market share 11.1% 1. Renault Zoe 1. Tesla Model 3 2. Tesla Model 3 2. Wuling HongGuangMini EV 3. Volkswagen ID3 Market share 3. Baojun E-Series 6.3% 4. Hyundai Kona EV 4. Great Wall Ora R1 / Black Cat 5. Audi e-Tron 5. GAC Aion S Quelle: ACEA, VDA; ev-sales.blogspot, 2021 Electric cars 2 Lithium ion cells: Asia dominates right now Share of installed, under construction and planned battery cell manufacturing By homecountry of the company By production sites 13% 7% 9,7% 17% 63% 14,0% 76,3% Chinese companies (CATL, BYD, Lishen, CBAK etc.) Korean companies (LG Chem, SK, Samsung) Japanese companies (Panasonic, AESC) American companies (Tesla, Boston Power) Source: PEM RWTH Aachen, 2019 Electric cars 3 China has secured large parts of the value chain Share of chinese companies in 2019 Raw materials (lithium, nickel, cobalt, etc.) Refining of raw materials (lithium carbonate, cobalt sulphat, etc.) Production of anodes und cathodes Battery cell production Quelle: Deutsche Rohstoffagentur, 2020; Automobilwoche, 2020 Electric cars 4 Cell manufacturing: a major part of the costs is location-independent Cost structure of a battery cell produced in Germany Total cost structure of manufacturing Cost structure of material costs by components 100% 90% 80% 42,3% Material 70% 59% Depreciation Kathode Maintenance 60% Anode Energy 50% 11,5% Elektrolyt Staff Separator Transport 40% 11,5% Housing Sales overhead 18% 30% Margin 13,5% 20% Location- independent 10% 21,2% 0% Source: PEM RWTH Aachen, 2019; Avicienne Energy 2017+2018 Electric cars 5 Massive expansion: planned battery cell production in Europe Microvast GmbH Morrow Batteries AS Freyr Northvolt AB TESLA 2021: 1,5 GWh 2024: 8 GWh 2023: 32 GWh 2021: 32 GWh 2022: 100 (?) GWh Later 6 GWh Later 32 GWh Later 40 GWh Later 250 (?) GWh VW Group/Northvolt CATL Thuringia GmbH 2024: 16 GWh 2022: 14 GWh Later 24 GWh Later 100 GWh AMTE Power Ltd. Farasis Energy GmbH 2023: 10 GWh 2024: 16 GWh Später 35 GWh SVolt LG Chem Wroclaw 2023: 24 GWh 2020: 15 GWh Groupe PSA InoBat AutoS 2022: 16 GWh 2020: 10 GWh Later 64 GWh Leclanché GmbH SK Battery Hungary 2020: 1 GWh 2020: 7,5 GWh Later 2,5 GWh Vektor Samsung SDI Hungary 2023: 16 GW 2020: 3 GWh Later 15 GWh Sources: Solar Promotion GmbH, 2020; Battery-News, 2020; own creation; as of 24 th November 2020 Electric cars 6 Lithium: 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 Source: Bloomberg, Bloomberg, 2020 Source: 5.000 0 31.01.2009 Swa CIF Carbonate Lithium Asia 31.05.2009 30.09.2009 31.01.2010 price 31.05.2010 30.09.2010 31.01.2011 31.05.2011 30.09.2011 increase 31.01.2012 31.05.2012 Europe Lithium Carbonate CIF S CIF Carbonate Lithium Europe 30.09.2012 31.01.2013 31.05.2013 30.09.2013 31.01.2014 completed 31.05.2014 30.09.2014 31.01.2015 31.05.2015 30.09.2015 31.01.2016 Carbonat Lithium America North 31.05.2016 30.09.2016 31.01.2017 31.05.2017 30.09.2017 31.01.2018 31.05.2018 30.09.2018 31.01.2019 31.05.2019 + ► ► ► from only four companies. only four from comes production lithium of worldwide 80 percent clearly. again 2018 the price drops a pricingAfter carbonate. of lithiumthe form in traded therefore und is reactive is highlyLithium rallye until Spot prices for important raw materials + LME COBALT SPOT ($) LME NICKEL SPOT ($) LME COPPER SPOT ($) ► Prices for cobalt have 100.000 risen by a good 200 percent since March 2015 90.000 and have collapsed since 80.000 Mai 2018. They now are 70.000 on the level of before the price rallye. 60.000 ► Cobalt is mostly a by- 50.000 product of nickel and 40.000 copper production. Falling nickel and copper prices 30.000 dampen cobalt 20.000 production. 10.000 ► Cobalt production and 0 processing are under control of Chinese companies. 01.01.2018 01.05.2010 01.09.2010 01.01.2011 01.05.2011 01.09.2011 01.01.2012 01.05.2012 01.09.2012 01.01.2013 01.05.2013 01.09.2013 01.01.2014 01.05.2014 01.09.2014 01.01.2015 01.05.2015 01.09.2015 01.01.2016 01.05.2016 01.09.2016 01.01.2017 01.05.2017 01.09.2017 01.05.2018 01.09.2018 01.01.2019 01.05.2019 Source: Bloomberg Germany counts for 30 percent of new registrations New registrations of electric cars in 2020 in the EU – number of units (Stand: Q3) 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 BEV PHEV * No data for Bulgaria und Kroatia Source: ACEA, 2020 Electric cars 9 Registrations of electric cars: Large regional differences Market share of electric cars in EU 27+UK – indicate in percentage 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% BEV PHEV * No data for Bulgaria und Kroatia Source: ACEA, 2020 Electric cars 10 Electric vehicles are concentrated in a few countries Cumulated new registrations of BEVs and PHEVs in EU and EFTA since January 2010 4.500.000 4.000.000 3.500.000 3.000.000 2.500.000 2.000.000 1.500.000 1.000.000 500.000 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 Germany UK France Norway Sweden Netherlands Rest of EU15 and EFTA New EU+Tabelle11!$91:$91 Members Source: ACEA, 2021 Electric cars 11 Agricultural vehicles: Alternative drives still at the beginning of the road Market shares of agricultural vehicles with alternative drives in EU 27+UK – indicate in percentage ECV-Rechargeable on the mains Hybrides Natural gas Other (LPG+E85) 8,0% 7,0% 6,0% 5,0% 4,0% 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% *No data for Bulgaria, Kroatia, Malta, Lithuania Source: ACEA, 2020 Electric cars 12 Only a few vehicles on the road Only a fraction of the fleet has got an alternative drive Only a fraction of the fleet has got an alternative drive Share of alternative drives in the passenger car fleet in 2018 Share of alternative drives in the stock of light commercial vehicles in 2018 3,0% 1,4% 1,3% 1,2% 2,5% 2,4% 1,0% 2,0% 0,8% 1,5% 0,6% 1,0% 0,7% 0,4% 0,3% 0,5% 0,4% 0,3% 0,2% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% ECV - Hybrides Fuel cell Natural gas Other (LPG+E85) ECV - Rechargeable Hybrides Fuel cell LPG and natural gas Rechargeable on on the mains the mains Source: ACEA, 2020 Electric cars 13 Charging infrastructure is concentrated in a few countries Charging stations Of which > Public charging stations Country 2020 22kW Share in the EU EU27 199,825 25,288 100% < 499 Niederlande 66,664 2,428 29.69% 500 – 999 Frankreich 46,045 4,045 20.51% Deutschland 44,669 7,456 19.89% 1,000 – 4,999 Italien 13,381 1,231 5.96% 5,000 – 9,999 Schweden 10,412 1,608 4.64% Belgien 8,482 476 3.78% 10,000 – 20,000 Österreich 8,232 1,347 3.67% 20,000 – 34,999 Spanien 8,165 2,120 3.64% Finland 3,728 484 1.66% 35,000 - 49,999 Dänemark 3,254 555 1.45% Portugal 2,470 494 1.10% ≥ 50,000 Polen 1,687 648 0.75% Ungarn 1,295 287 0.58% Tschechien 1,200 610 0.53% Irland 1,102 290 0.49% Luxemburg 1,063 12 0.47% Slowakei 925 269 0.41% Slowenien 747 135 0.33% Kroatien 670 187 0.30% Rumänien 502 185 0.22% Estland 424 201 0.19% Griechenland 334 81 0.15% Lettland 314 235 0.14% Bulgarien 195 76 0.09% Litauen 179 100 0.08% Malta 101 0 0.04% United Kingdom 33,470 6,248 Brexit Sources: ACEA, 2020 Electric cars 14 Public charging stations - a chicken-and-egg problem So far, there are only a few BEVs per public charging point 20 + 18 ➢ A dense network of public charging points is needed for 16 BEVs to spread on the mass 14 market. ➢ However, with only a few 12 charging processes per 10 charging point, their operation is not 8 economically viable. 6 ➢ The situation is aggravated 4 by the fact that today 80 percent of charging 2 processes take place at non- 0 public charging points.
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