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The New Normal Coronavirus Impact on China Car Industry Alan Kang, Senior Market Analyst The Global Light Vehicle Outlook Briefing October 22, 2020 © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. Outline . COVID-19 Impact to Marco Economy . Passenger Car Market Overview . Market Dynamics: Sales Distribution, Brand Origins and Segments . Outlook © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. China Still Under the Risk of a Second COV-19 Wave . China is ahead of the world from a recovery perspective but the risk of second wave of COV-19 is still high . In May, a small scale of outbreak in Jilin province. In June, an outbreak of COVID-19 occurred in Beijing. Xinjiang th . In July 16 , cases restarted in Xinjiang province. Qingdao . In October 12th, new cases raised in Shandong province. 120 Xinjiang New cases 100 (July-August) 80 Jilin Beijing (May) (June-July) 60 40 Shandong 20 (October) 0 09/05/2020 11/05/2020 13/05/2020 15/05/2020 17/05/2020 19/05/2020 21/05/2020 23/05/2020 25/05/2020 09/06/2020 11/06/2020 13/06/2020 15/06/2020 17/06/2020 19/06/2020 21/06/2020 23/06/2020 25/06/2020 27/06/2020 29/06/2020 01/07/2020 03/07/2020 05/07/2020 07/07/2020 09/07/2020 11/07/2020 13/07/2020 15/07/2020 17/07/2020 19/07/2020 21/07/2020 23/07/2020 25/07/2020 02/08/2020 04/08/2020 06/08/2020 08/08/2020 10/08/2020 12/08/2020 14/08/2020 01/10/2020 13/10/2020 27/07/20203 29/07/20205 31/07/20207 16/08/20202 © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 3 China’s Economy Recover Momentum Extended To Q3 (bn RMB) GDP (bn RMB) Total retail sales of consumer goods 30,000 10% 80,000 2019 2020 YoY 10% 2019 2020 YoY 60,000 4.9% 5% 3.2% 0.70% 20,000 0.9% 0% 40,000 0% -3.1% -7.20% 20,000 -5% 10,000 -10% -6.8% 0 -10% 0 -19.0% -20% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1-Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1-Q3 (bn USD) Export (bn RMB) National fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) 50,000 15% 2,000 2019 2020 YoY 20% 2019 2020 YoY 10% 40,000 8.8% 1,500 8.9% 10% 4.6% 5% 30,000 0.80% 0% 1,000 0.2% -0.8% 0% 20,000 -5% 500 -10% -10% -13.3% 10,000 -16.1% -15% 0 -20% 0 -20% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1-Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1-Q3 © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 4 Exports Show Surprising Surge as Global Economy Reopens . China exports surged 9.9% in Sep despite Trump’s “tech grenade” and strong RMB appreciation. RMB VS USD . Surge is powered by demands for lockdown goods overseas (medical supplies, electronics and work-from-home equipment. Supply chain disruption in India/Asean regions also shifted overseas orders back to China. Strong recovery of exports sectors boosted consumer confidence in coaster regions where the local economy more open to foreign trade China Export 9.5% 9.9% 10% 7.2% 5% 3.5% 0.5% 0% -0.8% -2.3% -5% -3.3% -4.1% -6.2% -10% -6.6% -7.7% -9.0% -13.3% -15% -17.2% YoY Ytd YoY -20% 202001-02 202003 202004 202005 202006 202007 202008 202009 © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 5 Consumer Confidence Improved But Still Weak Income confidence was improving slightly in Q2 and Q3, but still in a low level Income Sentiment and Income Confidence index Residents' willingness to consume, save and invest © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. Source: PBOC, NBS 6 Consumers’ Budget Continues To Drop Jan-Jun 2020 YoY (in nominal terms ) YoY (in real terms) Per capita disposable personal income(RMB) 15,666 2.4% -1.3% Per capita consumer spending (RMB) 9,718 -5.9% -9.3% Gap(RMB) 5,948 Source: NBS © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 7 Outline . COVID-19 Impact to Marco Economy . Passenger Car Market Overview . Market Dynamics: Sales Distribution, Brand Origins and Segments . Outlook © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. New Car Wholesales Recovered as Economy Rebound CHINA PASSENGER VEHICLE SALES (CAAM WHOLESALES) Sales Volumes Sales YoY Growth Downswing Tax Cut Stimulus Payback COVID-19 8 31% 40% 7 30% 20% 18% 14% 15% 20% 6 15% 13%12% 9% 6% 7% 8% 10% 3% 4% 4% 2% 10% 5 0% 0% 0% -2% -8% -6% 0% 4 -15%-14%-14% -10% 3 -20% In In units million Pre-buy effect: 4˜5 million extra 2 car sales estimated during the -30% 1 period -45% -40% - -50% Source: LMC Automotive; CAAM Wholesales © 2019 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 9 Source: LMC Automotive; CAAM Wholesales (exports are removed from 2018) ; Vehicle Registrations (2016 onwards: Insurance Data Insurance onwards: (2016 Registrations Vehicle ; 2018) from removed are (exports Wholesales CAAM Automotive; LMC Source: © © 2019 LMC Automotive Limited,All Rights Reserved. In Million Units Retail M 1.5 2.5 3.5 0.5 1 2 3 0 ONTHLY level level remained at low level inventory added newly that suggesting 9 months, first in units 124,000 only at stood Retails and Wholesales between Gap sales 4% of 2015 retail 0.8 million 201501 201502 201503 Sales Sales Followed the Wholesales Pace Tightly 201504 Registration 201505 R 201506 gap: 201507 ETAIL 201508 201509 201510 201511 50% tax cut purchase 201512 S 201601 ALES sales 2% of 2016 retail 0.48million 201602 201603 201604 Wholesales 201605 W V.S 201606 201607 gap: 201608 201609 201610 201611 HOLESALES 201612 201701 25% tax cut purchase 201702 201703 sales 3% of 2017 retail 0.68 million 201704 201705 201706 201707 201708 (2015 201709 gap: 201710 201711 201712 201801 201802 – 201803 S 201804 sales 7% of 2018 retail 1.4 million EP 201805 201806 201807 2020) 201808 201809 201810 gap: 201811 201812 201901 201902 201903 201904 0.4% of 2019 retail 2019retail of 0.4% 201905 201906 82,408 gap 82,408 201907 201908 sales 201909 201910 201911 201912 202001 202002 202003 202004 202005 202006 gap 124k ) 202007 Ytd 202008 S 10 202009 ep. Matthew Effect Appears in China Car Market Market Concentration ( 105 active brands in the market in 2020) 100% 90.7% 89.3% Top 30 90% 88.4% 87.2% 87.9% 80.5% 80% 78.7% Top 20 75.4% 75.3% 76.1% 70% 60.6% Top 10 60% 56.3% 53.2% 50.9% 52.1% 50% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD May Source: CAAM and Insurance data © 2019 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 11 OEM Dynamics: Winners and Losers in Ytd Sep. 2020 40% (0.6%, 162.9%) Brand Share & Growth in China 20% 0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% -20% Average -13% (12.9%, -19.2%) -40% YTD Growth -60% -80% -100% Market Share (Ytd Sep 2020) © 2019 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 12 SUV Surpassed Car Segment Ytd Sep 2019 Ytd Sep 2020 YoY Growth 9 0% 8 -7% -5% In Million Units 7 -10% 6 -15% 5 -15% 4 -20% 3 -25% 2 -30% 1 -33% 0 -35% Car MPV SUV Source: LMC Automotive; CAAM Wholesales © 2019 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 13 China PV Market Sales Outlook Sales Volumes Sales Growth 30.0 60.0% 50.0% 25.0 47.4% 40.0% 20.0 36.0% 30.0% 15.0 20.0% 19.0% 16.7% 9.8% 12.2% 12.9% 10.0% 10.0 8.3% 9.5% 8.1% 5.9% In million units million In 4.6% 4.8% 3.8%3.3% 2.4% 0.0% 5.0 -3.9% -8.9%-8.6% -10.0% - -20.0% © 2019 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 14 For experts by experts Oxford +44 1865 791737 [email protected] Detroit +1 248 817-2100 Bangkok +662 264 2050 lmc-auto.com Shanghai +86 21 5283 3526 Thank you © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. Electrification China NEV market status Lancy Zhang, Powertrain and NEV LMC Webinar 22nd October, 2020 © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. Outline • Key Policy Review • NEV Market Status • Outlook © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 17 Subsidy decreased in the following years . Subsidy will extend to 2022, but the amount will decrease slightly 0,000 RMB 6 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 1.4 2017 2018 2019 1.2 5 1 4 0.8 3 0.6 2 0.4 1 0.2 0 0 PHEV ≥50 100 - 150 150 - 200 200 - 250 250 - 300 300 - 400 ≥ 400 90 - 105 105 - 125 125 - 140 140 - 160 ≥ 160 BEV Range (Km) Energy Density (Wh/Kg) Battery- Purchase Swapped Note: Tax Free - 23rd Apr to 22nd Jul 2020 is the Year 2020 2021 2022 Vehicles interim period Decrease 300,000 - subsidy only available for 10% 20% 30% vehicle’s price below 300,000 (base of 2019) RMB RMB, except for battery- swapped vehicles © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 18 Local Government support NEV market . Local governments offer some incentives on NEV since COVID-19 outbreak 25.03.2020/Beijing: 27.05.2020/Shaanxi: 10,000RMB per vehicle 6,000RMB per vehicle Add 20,000NEV car plates 09.04.2020/Ningbo: 10,000RMB per vehicle 23.04.2020/Shanghai: 5,000RMB for charging fee 03.03.2020/Guangzhou: 10,000RMB per vehicle 09.04.2020/Shenzhen: 08.05.2020/Hainan: 10,000RMB per vehicle 10,000RMB per vehicle © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
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