Early Warning Bulletin Forecasting Threats to the Food Chain Affecting Food Security in Countries and Regions

Food Chain Crisis Early Warning Bulletin Forecasting threats to the food chain affecting food security in countries and regions

No. 33 October–December 2019

Food Chain Crisis | Emergency Prevention System Food Chain Crisis Early Warning Bulletin Food Chain Crisis Early Warning Bulletin Forecasting threats to the food chain affecting food security in countries and regions

No. 33 October–December

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome, 2019

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CONTENTS

NOTE TO THE READER page iv

FOOD CHAIN CRISIS FORECASTING METHODOLOGY page 1

HIGHLIGHTS page 2

OVERVIEW: FCC Forecast for the period October–December 2019 page 3

REGIONAL OVERVIEW: Forecast for the period October–December 2019 page 5

SHORT TAKE ON: Tropical Race 4 (TR4) page 17

FOOD CHAIN CRISIS THREATS FORECASTING AT COUNTRY LEVEL page 18

GLOSSARY page 62

INFORMATION SOURCES page 63

III Food Chain Crisis Early Warning Bulletin October–December 2019 No. 33

NOTE TO THE READER

The purpose of the FCC (Food Chain Crisis) Early Warning Bulletin is to inform Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and other international organizations, countries, scientific experts, and decision makers of forecast threats to animal and plant health and food safety that may have a high impact on food and nutrition security for the three months ahead. These threats are transboundary animal and plant pests and diseases, including forest pests and aquatic diseases, and food safety threats.

The bulletin contains official and unofficial information from various sources that has been collected and analysed by FAO experts.

The FCC Early Warning Bulletin is a product of the collaboration between the Intelligence and Coordination Unit of the Food Chain Crisis Management Framework (FCC-ICU), the FAO Emergency Prevention System (EMPRES) for transboundary animal and plant pests and diseases and food safety threats, the FAO Global Early Warning System for transboundary animal diseases, including zoonoses (GLEWS), and the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS). FCC-ICU coordinates and produces the bulletin.

IV Food Chain Crisis Early Warning Bulletin Food Chain Crisis Early Warning Bulletin October–December 2019 No. 33 October–December 2019 No. 33

FOOD CHAIN CRISIS FORECASTING METHODOLOGY

Transboundary animal and plant pests and diseases, including forest pests and aquatic diseases, and food safety threats are raising public awareness due to their potential high impact on food security, human health, livelihoods, and trade. These threats have highlighted the need to predict them in a comprehensive and integrated manner, oriented towards the whole food chain. Predicting threats will allow for timelier implementation of preventive and control measures, and will thus reduce their impact and limittheir geographic spread.

The FAO Food Chain Crisis-Intelligence and Coordination Unit (FCC-ICU) has developed an integrated forecasting approach to assess the likelihood of the occurrence of threats to the food chain (FCC threat) for the upcoming three months. Based on this approach and on the availability of FAO data, a number of forecast events are presented at country level. Data are collected, analysed and further presented in this quarterly FCC Early Warning Bulletin (see country section, page 18). The food safety threats will be included in future bulletins.

The likelihood of occurrence of an FCC threat in a country is defined according to the result of the assessment of two main epidemiological parameters: Parameter 1: likelihood of introduction of the threat from another country and its further spread within the country (calculated as shown in table 1), and Parameter 2: likelihood of its re-emergence (amplification) within the country, if a threat is already present there

Based on a conservative approach, the likelihood of occurrence of the threat will be considered equal to the higher level of the two parameters.

Table 1: Crossing table of likelihood of introduction and likelihood of spread (Parameter 1) Level of likelihood of spread 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 Level of Level likelihood of likelihood introduction 3 2 2 2 3

The likelihood of occurrence, the likelihood of introduction, the likelihood of spread, and the likelihood of re- emergence of a FCC threat can be rated as Nil, Low, Moderate or High, as shown in table 2.

Table 2: FCC likelihood scale Likelihood Definition Nil (0) Very unlikely Low (1) Unlikely Moderate (2) Likely High (3) Highly likely

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HIGHLIGHTS

African swine fever (ASF) ASF in Asia ASF continues to be reported in the region. China (since August 2018); Mongolia (January 2019); Viet Nam (February 2019); Cambodia (April 2019); the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (May 2019); the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (June 2019); Myanmar (August 2019); and the Philippines, the Republic of Korea and Timor Leste (September 2019) have reported outbreaks in domestic pigs and sporadic cases in wild boar (mainly captive). The disease was also reported for the first time in wild boar in Jilin and Heilongjiang province in China in December 2018. As of 12 September 2019, outbreaks continue to be reported in Cambodia, China, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Myanmar, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea and Viet Nam. Over the last few months, there have been numerous detections of ASF virus in pork samples brought to countries in the region (e.g. Australia, Thailand and Japan). As the majority of pigs are produced in Asia, especially China, the recent escalation of the ASF epidemic is likely to have devastating consequences for animal health and food security, as well as a noticeable impact on the pig industry and related businesses, not only in the region but worldwide. ASF in Europe ASF outbreaks and transmission are likely to continue in affected countries (Belgium, Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Republic of Moldova, Serbia, Slovakia, the Russian Federation and Ukraine). Introduction of the disease is likely to occur in currently unaffected neighbouring countries (particularly in the Balkan peninsula, such as Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo1, Montenegro and the Re- public of North Macedonia), without ruling out longer jumps such as those observed in Czechia or Belgium. Czechia was the first country in the European Union (EU) to be officially declared free from ASF in February 2019 after no new outbreak had been found in the country since April 2018. In September 2018, the virus affected the wild boar population in Belgium. This increased the possibility of introduction of the disease into neighbouring Western European countries (e.g. France, Germany and Luxembourg). In all affected countries, ASF is likely to persist and become endemic due to the presence of wild boar populations. ASF risk to Americas The disease may spread from Asian or European infected countries to the Americas. The risk of further spread of ASF within the region is considered moderate to high, due to the movement of live pigs and pork products from infected countries.

1 References to Kosovo shall be understood to be in the context of United Nations (UN) Security Council Resolution 1244 (1999).

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OVERVIEW fCC Forecast FOR THE period October–December 2019

During the period October–December 2019, Food Chain Crisis (FCC) threats are expected to occur in Africa, the Americas, Asia, Europe, and Oceania. In these regions, they may persist within a country, spread to neighbouring countries, remain latent, or re-emerge or amplify.

The dynamics and likelihood of the occurrence of FCC threats depend on a number of risk factors or driv- ers. These include agro-ecological factors (intensive farming systems, deforestation, overgrazing, etc.), climate change and variability (droughts, extreme weather events, flooding, heavy rains, heat waves, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation – ENSO), changes in vegetation cover, water temperature, human behaviour (cul- tural practices, conflicts and civil insecurity, trade, etc.) and natural disasters.

With regard to food security, and according to the latest “Crop prospects and food situation” report (covering the period October–December 2019), FAO estimates that globally, 41 countries (31 in Africa, 8 in Asia and 2 in the Americas) need external assistance for food. Persisting conflicts continue to be the dominant factor driving high levels of severe food insecurity. Weather shocks have also adversely affected food availability and access. FCC threats can compound food insecurity in fragile countries stricken by weather shocks and conflicts.

Main Food Chain Threats Thirty plant and forest pests and diseases, locusts and animal and aquatic diseases were monitored and forecasted by FAO experts for the period October–December 2019. A total of 245 forecasts were conducted in 113 countries.

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OVERVIEW forecast FOR THE period October–December 2019

Table 3: Potential food chain threats1 forecasted for the period October–December 2019 FCCs Plant pests Forest pests Continent Threats and diseases and diseases Locusts Animal diseases Aquatic diseases Africa 15 Fall armyworm Blue gum chalcid Desert Locust Rift Valley fever (FAW) (RVF) Red gum lerp Migratory Locust Cassava mosaic psyllid Foot-and-mouth disease (CMD) Red Locust disease (FMD) Cassava swollen Peste des petits shoot disease ruminants (PPR) (CBSD) Avian influenza Banana fusarium (AI) - wilt disease (BFWD) Banana bunchy top disease (BBTD) Swollen shoot virus disease

Americas 3 Banana fusarium Bark beetles Avian Influenza wilt disease - (BFWD) Asia 10 Fall armyworm Boxwood blight Desert Locust African swine Tilapia lake virus (FAW) fever (ASF) (TiLV) Dry cone Banana fusarium syndrome Foot-and-mouth wilt disease disease (FMD) (BFWD) Avian Influenza (AI) Lumpy skin disease

Europe 5 Xylella fastidiosa Pine African swine on olive trees processionary fever (ASF) moth Lumpy skin - disease (LSD) - Peste des petits ruminants (PPR)

Total by 7 5 3 5 1 FCC category

1 Moderate-high likelihood

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reGIONAL OVERVIEW forecast FOR THE period October–December 2019

AFRICA

In Africa, 120 FCC threats in 46 countries were forecasted, comprising plant pests and diseases, locusts, animal and aquatic diseases, and forest pests. The likelihood of occurrence varies from low to high. The following FCC events have significant regional implications:

Plant pests and diseases Fall Armyworm (FAW) – Spodoptera frugiperda - In East Africa, Fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda), or FAW, presence has now been confirmed in all countries except Djibouti. In most East African countries, the forecast period coincides with the short rainy season. Unless appropriate action is taken, the likelihood of spread and damage will be high because the pest will have access to significant amounts of maize, which is its preferred host. - In North Africa, FAW has been reported in southern Egypt in maize, and is expected to continue spreading to the north of the country (the Nile Delta region). The climate conditions in this forecast period in Egypt and the Sudan may allow for continuous planting of host plants, which may increase the likelihood of spread and damage. There will be a low risk of FAW introduction to southern Algeria and southern Mauritania from their neighbouring countries to the south. - In Southern Africa, FAW was initially reported in some countries at the end of 2016. It is now present throughout the entire Southern African subregion, although the pest has not yet been reported in Leso- tho. FAW may spread and increase as most countries will have maize during the forecast period, this will be subject to the weather conditions. - In Central Africa, FAW will spread and increase in those countries where maize will be present during the forecast period. In East Africa, the chances of wheat rust epidemics are forecasted as moderate due to inoculum built up in previous seasons. The severity of yellow and stem rust may escalate in areas where the rainfalls increase. Cassava mosaic and brown streak diseases continue to be effective and may amplify where weather conditions will be favourable.Tomato leaf miner (Tuta absoluta) infestations vary with the seasons. Insect pest populations and infestation levels are likely to be relatively high across countries in the subregion during this forecast period, because it generally coincides with the relatively warm, short rainy season during which large quantities of tomato are cultivated. Tomato is mainly produced during the warm season, when the atmospheric conditions also happen to be favourable for the pest to flourish. If left uncontrolled under these conditions, leaf miner infestations are typically high and can lead to significant yield losses. In North Africa, Tomato leaf miner will have a lower possibility of spread, as the main host plants are not yet grown in open fields. In Central Africa, Banana bunchy top disease continue to be a problem in some countries in the region and can escalate. Similarly, Cassava mosaic and brown streak diseases may also amplify where weather conditions will be favourable.

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Locusts In East Africa, winter breeding of Desert Locust will occur on the Red Sea coast of the Sudan and Eritrea, and on the northwest coast of Somalia. Breeding may occur in Ethiopia and on the Somalia plateau. Locusts could move south to the Ogaden in Ethiopia, towards Kenya. The current development of Red Locust swarms in all of its continental habitats will be fostered by grass burning and hot and dry weather in most countries. In South Africa, in Madagascar, Migratory Locust breeding is expected with the onset of the rainy season. In North Africa, no significant Desert Locust developments are expected. In West Africa, no significant Desert Locust developments are expected.

Animal diseases

Avian influenza (AI) H5N1 and H5N8 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) viruses may sporadically cause new outbreaks in some countries. However, overall, the risk is considered nil to low for the forecast period, given the observed seasonality of the disease. Only in Egypt, where H5 HPAI viruses are circulating endemically, the risk is considered to be moderate, with the number of outbreaks expected to increase towards December. H9N2 Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza (LPAI) is considered endemically circulating in many African countries, causing losses to poultry production. - In North Africa, circulation of H5N1 HPAI, H5N8 HPAI and H9N2 LPAI is expected to continue in Egypt at a moderate intensity and to increase towards December 2019. - In West Africa, H5N8 HPAI reemerged in end 2018 in Nigeria. since then the country has not reported any outbreaks but continued circulation of the virus cannot be ruled out. The risk of occurrence of the disease for the period October-December 2019 is therefore considered low. - In Central and East Africa, reports of H5N8 HPAI virus have ceased, and the risk for the period October– December 2019 is considered nil. - In Southern Africa, the latest reports of H5N8 HPAI virus in South Africa and Namibia were reported in June–August 2019. As the warmer season is approaching in this hemisphere, the risk for the period Oc- tober–December 2019 is considered nil in Namibia and low in South Africa. It should be noted that this assessment is based on relatively scarce data, given that, for example, LPAI viruses are not notifiable to the OIE and countries with endemic circulation of HPAI viruses are not required to report every individual Avian influenza event.

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AFRICA

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), serotype O - In Northern Africa (Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia) and West Africa (Burkina Faso, Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, the Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, the Niger, Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Le- one) several FMD outbreaks, serotype O, were reported from July 2018 and July 2019. The virus observed appears to be genetically very close to the virus that has been circulating in Algeria since 2014 (serotype O, topotype EA3). Further spread of the disease is likely to occur within the infected countries and throughout the region, where livestock is not immunized against this particular strain of the virus. Exceptionally, in recent years, FMD has also been observed in small ruminants (Senegal, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, etc.), reflecting an unusual trend and likely new strains or subtypes circulating in the subregion. - In Southern and East Africa, FMD, serotype O, which re-emerged in Zambia in August 2018, is likely to continue to occur in the Zambia (in non-vaccinated areas). These events are of concern because the disease may spread from Zambia into the Southern Africa region, reaching countries that have never been affected by this particular serotype (e.g. Botswana, Namibia and Zimbabwe). If this happens, the impact would be huge on the subregion’s beef-exporting countries. In Comoros, an FMD, serotype O outbreak occurred in March 2019. The disease may have spread from the neighbouring United Republic of Tanza- nia (where it is endemic); this event is of concern because the disease can spread within Comoros itself or into neighbouring countries, such as Mozambique or Madagascar, through the movement of animals. Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) - PPR was first reported in Burundi in January 2018 and has been under control through mass vaccination. The first occurrence of PPR in Angola was recorded in December 2012. The following measures were undertaken: movement control inside the country, vaccination in response to the outbreak(s) and quarantine. Since then, no further outbreak was reported. Namibia was declared free on a zonal basis south of the veterinary cordon fence. Outbreaks continued to be reported in the United Republic of Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of the Congo at the end of 2018; these countries are considered endemic for PPR. The disease is likely to spread through small ruminant movement and pastoralism along border areas; in this way, it may be introduced into neighbouring Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia. Other countries in the region are either PPR-free or have never reported the disease, including Madagascar, which was declared free from the disease in 2018. RiftV alley fever (RVF) - Central and Eastern Africa: During the past three months above-average and heavy rainfall and flash floods occurred in the region particularly during the end of August and early September as well as in early October 2019. The precipitation forecasts predict above-average rains for the coming period (Oc- tober-December 2019) for Chad, Central African Republic, southern the Sudan and the whole eastern Africa region. According to the FAO RVF Monitoring/Early Warning tool, there are large areas at risk of RVF vector amplification in central-southern Chad, western-central Kenya, central-southern the Sudan, eastern-southern Sudan, northern Uganda, and northern Tanzania. In August 2019, the first confirmed case ever of RVF in humans was reported in Bangui, Central African Republic. In early October 2019, media reported suspected cases of RVF in humans and animals in Red Sea state (north-eastern Sudan)

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AFRICA

and cases of hemorrhagic fever in humans in Kassala (eastern Sudan) and North Darfur states (western Sudan). Considering the past and recent RVF outbreaks occurrence in the region, Chad, Kenya, the Sudan, South Sudan and Central African Republic could be considered at high risk of RVF occurrence. The other countries of the region could be considered at moderate risk of RVF due to the predicted suitability for RVF vector amplification as well as animal movement of potential infected animals. - Southern Africa: The precipitation forecasts predict from normal to below-normal rains for the coming period (October–December 2019) for the whole southern African region, except for northern Mozam- bique. The FAO RVF Monitoring/Early Warning tool highlights a large area at risk of RVF vector amplification in north and center Mozambique. The latter was an area heavily hit by the cyclone Idai in March 2019. Extensive and protracted flooding and retain of water may have increased the vegetation cover in the area, thus enhancing the suitability for vector amplification. These areas could be considered at moderate risk of RVF occurrence. Small localized risk areas for vector amplification are also predicted in central South Africa and south-west Madagascar. Where, the risk could be considered low. - West Africa: During the past months, wet conditions were observed over much of West Africa, except for Senegal and Mauritania. Abundant and torrential rains fell over southern and central Mali, Guinea-Co- nakry, Cote d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Togo, Benin, the Niger and southern Nigeria. In September 2019, torrential rains in Mali and Senegal damaged infrastructure and crops over many local areas. Above-normal rains is predicted for October 2019 maintaining the flood in these areas. The precipitation forecasts for November and December 2019 predict normal rains in the region. According to the FAO RVF Monitoring/ Early Warning tool, and given the current presence of suitable environmental conditions for vector amplification, animal movement and informal marketing of infected animals, a potential risk of RVF occurrence can be considered along the Senegal River between Mauritania and Senegal, in east-central Senegal, in larger areas in central Mali, in south-eastern Mauritania and in small, localized, areas in the Niger. These countries could be considered at low to moderate risk.

Forest pests and diseases In Eastern Africa, Blue gum chalcid, Bronze bug and Red gum lerp psyllid insect pests are likely to continue spreading, causing severe damage in eucalyptus nurseries and plantations. Applications of biological control agents to reduce these insect pest populations are in progress in some countries. The polyphagous shot hole borer is likely to spread from South Africa to neighbouring countries.

Aquatic animal diseases In Southern Africa, Zambia is at risk of re-emergence of the fish disease Epizootic Ulcerative Syndrome (EUS). The United Republic of Tanzania is at risk of EUS introduction as the disease is present in neighbouring countries (Congo and Zambia). Water temperatures during the period October–December in these countries range between 18 and 25°C, optimal temperatures for the development of the oomycete fungus that causes the disease.

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AFRICA

Tilapia lake virus (TiLV) may have a wider distribution than presently known. Based on an expert knowledge elicitation risk assessment for TiLV (http://www.fao.org/3/CA2864EN/ca2864en.pdf), the risk of TiLV spreading (in the absence of any controls) within a country where it is already present was found to be very high, whereas the risk of TiLV spreading from infected countries to other countries in the African region was found to be high. High awareness and vigilance for TiLV are required in tilapia-producing countries in North Africa (including Egypt, the world’s second largest tilapia producer), Eastern Africa (which includes major tilapia-producing countries such as Kenya, the Sudan, Uganda, etc.), and Southern Africa (where major tilapia-producing countries such as Malawi, Mozambique, the United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe, etc. are lo- cated). A surveillance plan may be necessary to determine the geographical extent of the spread and to prepare mitigation measures to limit it. Appropriate diagnostic testing is encouraged when unexplained mortalities of tilapia occur. Testing is particularly required when clinical signs are similar to those reported for TiLV and when permissive water temperatures (between 22°C and 32°C) are present. Public information campaigns are recommended, to advise aquaculturists on the threat posed by TiLV and on the need to report unexplained large-scale mortalities to biosecurity authorities. TiLV is likely to occur in countries where water temperatures range between 22°C and 32°C (usually between May and November, in some countries). The following farmed tilapia species are susceptible: Hybrid tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus x O. aureus hybrids), Nile tilapia (O. niloticus) and Red tilapia (Oreochromis sp.).

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AMERICAS

In the Americas, 8 FCC threats in 7 countries were forecasted, comprising aquatic diseases and forest pests. The likelihood of occurrence varies from low to high. The following FCC events have significant regional implications:

Plant Pests and Diseases Banana fusarium wilt disease, Tropical Race 4, has been detected in Colombia recently and may spread further within the country. New incursions may occur in the region.

Animal diseases African swine fever (ASF) A risk of African swine fever (ASF) spreading in America from Asian or European infected countries cannot be excluded. The risk of further spread of ASF within the region is considered moderate to high, through movement of live pigs and pork products from infected countries.

Forest pests and diseases Infestations of Bark beetles, in particular Dendroctonus frontalis, are occurring in the dry corridor of Cen- tral America and will continue in the pine forests of Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua. Pine species Pinus caribea, Pinus oocarpa and Pinus patula within natural forests and plantations have become more vulnerable to the beetles’ attacks because they are already stressed by prolonged drought and weakened due to poor forest management practices.

Aquatic animal diseases Based on an expert knowledge elicitation risk assessment for Tilapia Lake virus (TiLV) (http://www.fao. org/3/CA2864EN/ca2864en.pdf), the risk of TiLV spreading (in the absence of any controls) within a country where it is already present was found to be very high, whereas the risk of TiLV spreading from infected countries to other countries in the South American region was found to be high. Surveillance plan, control measures and awareness campaigns are required in tilapia-producing countries. Public information campaigns are recommended, to advise aquaculturists on the threat posed by TiLV and on the need to report unexplained large-scale mortalities to biosecurity authorities. TiLV is likely to occur in countries where water temperatures range between 22°C and 32°C. The following farmed tilapia species are susceptible: Hybrid tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus x O. aureus hybrids), Nile tilapia O.( niloticus) and Red tilapia (Oreochromis sp.). According to the scientific literature, TiLV is already present in Colombia and Ec- uador; in an OIE notification, it was reported that TiLV is also present in Mexico, Peru and the United States of America. The disease may become a threat to other tilapia-producing countries in the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region.

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reGIONAL OVERVIEW forecast FOR THE period October–December 2019

ASIA

In Asia, a total of 78 FCC threats were forecasted in 33 countries, comprising plant pests and diseases, locusts, animal and aquatic diseases, and forest pests. The likelihood of occurrence varies from low to high. The following FCC events have significant regional implications:

Plant pests and diseases Fall Armyworm (FAW) – Spodoptera frugiperda In Southeast Asia, Fall Armyworm (FAW) has been reported in most countries of the subregion. It is expected to continue to spread within tropical countries; however, it will decline in temperate countries as temperatures become cold. In West Asia, Yemen officially declared the introduction of FAW in 2018. This may increase the risk of introduction of the pest to other neighbouring countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Oman. In Southeast Asia, Banana fusarium wilt disease, Tropical race 4, has been active and may expand into new areas and cause damage. In Southern Asia, Banana fusarium wilt disease, Tropical race 4, has been active in Southern Asia and was recently reported in India and Pakistan. It can spread further internally and cause damage.

Locusts In South Asia, summer breeding of Desert Locust will end along the Indo–Pakistan border, where groups and small swarms will form and move west to the spring breeding areas of southwest Pakistan and southeast Iran; however, breeding is not likely to occur until temperatures warm up in the spring. In Central Asia, almost all adult populations have already disappeared and no further development is expected for any of the three locust pests (Italian, Migratory and Moroccan Locusts) because of the upcoming winter period. In West Asia, swarms of Desert Locust will form in the Yemen interior and move to coastal areas to breed, causing additional hopper bands and swarms to form. Winter breeding will cause locust numbers to increase along the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia, where locusts will form groups and perhaps small bands and swarms.

Animal diseases Avian Influenza (AI) Based on seasonal patterns and the decreasing temperature during this forecast period, an increase in numbers of Avian Influenza (AI) outbreaks in poultry is generally expected during the period October–De- cember 2019. Four main Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) subtypes and several H5 clades are endemically circulating in West, East, South and Southeast Asia. New outbreaks of these subtypes are ata low to moderate risk of occurring in the region during the forecast period, with an expected increase towards December 2019.

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reGIONAL OVERVIEW forecast FOR THE period October–December 2019

ASIA

- H9N2 Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza (LPAI) is considered to endemically circulate in many Asian countries, causing losses to poultry production. - H5N1 HPAI continues to endemically circulate in Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia and Viet Nam, and re-emerged in Cambodia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic and Malaysia in 2018, and in Bhutan and Nepal in April–May 2019. This serotype was last reported in Nepal in September 2019. - H5N2 HPAI is circulating in Taiwan, Province of China and was last observed in August 2019. - The latest reports of H5N6 HPAI in Asia were made in August 2019 in Viet Nam and China (one human infection), while in Cambodia, the last outbreak was observed in March 2019. - The H5N8 HPAI strain currently circulating, which emerged in China in May 2016, has spread to Japan, India, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Nepal, the Republic of Korea, Pakistan, Israel and Kuwait (Decem- ber 2016); Kazakhstan (January 2017); and Saudi Arabia (in December 2017). In 2019, H5N8 HPAI has been reported so far in the Islamic Republic of Iran, Pakistan, Kuwait and Iraq, and in April 2019, in Israel. It should be noted that this assessment is based on relatively scarce data, given that, for example, LPAI viruses are not notifiable to the OIE and countries with endemic circulation of HPAI viruses are not required to report every individual AI event. African swine fever (ASF) ASF continues to be reported in the region. China (since August 2018); Mongolia (January 2019); Viet Nam (February 2019); Cambodia (April 2019); the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (May 2019); the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (June 2019); Myanmar (August 2019); and the Philippines, the Republic of Korea and Timor Leste (September 2019) have reported outbreaks in domestic pigs and sporadic cases in wild boar (mainly captive). The disease was also reported for the first time in wild boar in Jilin and Heilongjiang province in China in December 2018. As of 12 September 2019, outbreaks continue to be reported in Cambodia, China, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Myanmar, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea and Viet Nam. Over the last few months, there have been numerous detections of ASF virus in pork samples brought to countries in the region (e.g. Australia, Thailand and Japan). The risk of further spread of ASF within the countries is considered high in countries that have already been infected, which also poses a risk of ASF introduction into other countries in East and Southeast Asia, through movement of live pigs and pork products. As the majority of pigs are produced in Asia, especially China, the recent escalation of the ASF epidemic is likely to have devastating consequences for animal health and food security, as well as a noticeable impact on the pig industry and related businesses, not only in the region but worldwide. Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is likely to continue to occur in West Asia. Currently, serotypes O and A are circulating in Israel, while serotype O have been reported in the Gaza Strip and in Jordan in 2017, and in April 2019 in the West Bank. In these three locations, a significant number of not-typed events were reported in 2018–2019.

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reGIONAL OVERVIEW forecast FOR THE period October–December 2019

ASIA

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) - In West and Central Asia, outbreaks are likely to re-emerge in Turkey (which is considered endemic for the disease) and in neighbouring Caucasus countries (i.e. Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia) due to the increasing of temperatures, which determines favourable weather conditions for vector amplification during the forecast period. The impact of the disease can be mitigated through prevention measures implemented in the countries (i.e. vaccination). - In South Asia, LSD was reported for the first time ever in September 2019, in Bangladesh. There is concern for spread of the disease within Bangladesh and in neighbouring countries. Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) outbreaks are likely to continue to be reported in China and Israel. The last detection of the disease in China occurred in June 2018, while in Israel, the last outbreak occurred in July 2019. PPR is likely to be introduced in eastern oblasts of the Russian Federation due to the presence of the disease in neighbouring China.

Forest pests and diseases Boxwood blight (pathogen Calonectria pseudonaviculata) and Boxwood moth (Cydelima pesrpectalis) will cause further damage to boxwood trees (Buxus hyrcana), an IUCN threatened species, in Georgia and in the Caspian forest of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In Lebanon, Dry cone syndrome and Western conifer seed bug are causing severe losses to the pine nut harvest, and pest damage will continue; however, the activities of the Western conifer seed bug will decrease due to the colder temperatures prevailing in winter months. In Turkey, the Chestnut gall wasp is causing damage to chestnut trees and threatening the livelihoods of local communities. Biological control is in progress to reduce pest populations. In the Islamic Republic of Iran, a low incidence of Charcoal disease is likely to continue in oak forests in the Zagros area.

Aquatic animal diseases Based on an expert knowledge elicitation risk assessment for Tilapia lake virus (TiLV) (http://www.fao. org/3/CA2864EN/ca2864en.pdf), the risk of TiLV spreading (in the absence of any controls) within a country where it is already present was found to be very high, whereas the risk of TiLV spreading from infected countries to other countries in Asia (including in East and South Asia, which host the world’s major tilapia-producing countries such as China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, Bangladesh, Viet Nam, Myan- mar, etc.) was found to be high. TiLV is likely to occur in countries where water temperatures range between 22°C and 32°C (usually between May and November). The following farmed tilapia species are susceptible: Hybrid tilapia (Oreochro- mis niloticus x O. aureus hybrids), Nile tilapia (O. niloticus) and Red tilapia (Oreochromis sp.).

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reGIONAL OVERVIEW forecast FOR THE period October–December 2019

EUROPE

In Europe, 38 FCC threats were forecasted in 27 countries, comprising locusts and animal diseases. The likelihood of occurrence varies from low to high. The following FCC events have significant regional implications:

Plant pests and diseases: In Southern Europe, olive decline caused by Xylella fastidiosa has caused significant damage to olives in the Puglia region of Italy, and has been reported afterwards from the Balearic Islands of Spain and more recently from two sites on the Mediterranean coast of France. There is a significant risk of its further spread in southern Europe and even North Africa.`

Locusts In Eastern Europe, adult populations are disappearing and because of the winter period, no further development is expected for any of the three locust pests (Italian, Migratory and Moroccan Locusts).

Animal diseases African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks and transmission are likely to continue in the affected countries (Bel- gium, Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Republic of Moldova, Serbia, Slovakia, the Russian Federation and Ukraine). Introduction of the disease is likely to occur in currently unaffected neighbouring countries (particularly in the Balkan peninsula, such as Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo1, Montenegro and the Republic of North Macedonia), without ruling out longer jumps such as those observed in Czechia or Belgium. Czechia was the first country in the European Union (EU) to be officially declared free from ASF in February 2019 after no new outbreak had been found in the country since April 2018. In September 2018, the virus affected the wild boar population in Belgium. This increased the possibility of introduction of the disease into neighbouring Western European countries (e.g. France, Germany and Luxembourg). In all affected countries, ASF is likely to persist and become endemic due to the presence of wild boar populations. Avian Influenza (AI) - Two H5 Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtypes are circulating in Europe. In accordance with seasonal patterns (decreasing temperatures and starting wild bird migration movements), the overall risk for the period October–December 2019 is considered low to moderate. - A low risk of H5N8 HPAI occurrence in affected European countries exists. Since the virus was first introduced into Eastern Europe in mid-October 2016, it has been detected in 30 out of 43 European countries, particularly in Western and Eastern Europe. In 2019, the reported number of infections decreased dras- tically, and the disease affected mainly domestic poultry in Bulgaria and the Russian Federation. The last detection of the strain occurred in April 2019 in Bulgaria. Nonetheless, the strain may be reintroduced by wild birds, and may be detected sporadically during the forecast period.

1 References to Kosovo shall be understood to be in the context of UN Security Council Resolution 1244 (1999).

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reGIONAL OVERVIEW forecast FOR THE period October–December 2019

EUROPE

- In 2018, a local reassortant strain of the H5N6 HPAI virus, and thus different from the strain circulating in Asia, was detected in wild and domestic birds in Denmark, Finland, Germany, Ireland, the Nether- lands, Slovakia, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. This strain may continue to be sporadically detected during the period October–December 2019 given the decreasing temperatures expected during the approaching winter season in Europe and associated wild bird movements. The last report of this H5N6 HPAI strain occurred in Denmark in January 2019. Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is likely to be introduced in eastern oblasts of the Russian Federation due to the presence of the disease in neighbouring China. Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is unlikely to occur in affected countries of Southern Europe (i.e. Greece, Serbia, Kosovo, Albania, Montenegro and the Republic of North Macedonia) and the Russian Federation because during the forecast period, temperatures will decrease, determining unfavourable weather conditions for vector amplification.

Forest pests and diseases Bark beetle infestations will continue to damage pine plantations in Belarus and Ukraine. Application of silvicultural measures and removal of infested and weakened trees in forests during the winter months are appropriate measures to reduce outbreaks in spring. In Albania, the Pine processionary moth is likely to continue causing damage in pine forests.

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reGIONAL OVERVIEW forecast FOR THE period October–December 2019

Oceania

In Australia, Banana fusarium wilt disease, Tropical Race 4, is present in two locations in the north of the country; further spread is possible. The fungus also poses a threat to other banana-producing countries in the region.

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SHORT TAKE ON: TROPICAL RACE 4 (TR4)

What: Banana fusarium wilt (FW) is a disease caused by the fungus Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. cubense. The fungus (abbreviated as Foc), is soilborne and infects banana plants through the roots. As it gradually grows within the plant, it blocks the vascular tissues, with no visible external symptoms in the initial stages. In general, as the infection develops, leaf margins first start yellowing, and then dry up completely when the vascular system is blocked. This results in complete wilting and death of the infected plants. The disease has been recognized as a major threat to bananas for more than a century. Of current concern is a specific race of the fungus, Tropical Race 4 (TR4). It affects most banana varieties, including the Cavendish variety, which accounts for approximately half of global banana production and dominates the international market. Scientific reports indicate the presence of TR4 in numerous countries in Asia (China, mainland and Taiwan, Province of China), India, Indonesia, Israel, Jordan, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Lebanon, Malaysia, Myanmar, Pakistan, the Philippines, Oman and Viet Nam); in Africa (Mozambique); Australasia (Queensland and the Northern Territory, Australia); Europe (an indoor rainforest biome in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland); and Latin America (Colombia).

WHY: TR4 is considered the greatest challenge to banana for several reasons: (i) there are no means to eradicate the disease completely from infected soils; (ii) currently, there is no consumer-accepted resistant variety that can be readily used in place of Cavendish; (iii) if not contained immediately in sites where the disease is detected, the fungus can cause a loss of 100 percent in infested plantations; (iv) 400 million people rely on banana as their staple food or as a source of income. As of today, 100 000 ha of banana have been affected by TR4, mostly in Asia. Scientists estimate that if no measures are taken, TR4 has the potential to spread to 1.7 million ha by 2040 – equivalent to 15 percent of the current banana-grown area, producing fruits worth USD 10 billion per year.

HOW: FAO has alerted the global community on outbreaks and escalation of the disease through numerous new releases and events at global, regional and local levels. FAO, together with Bioversity International, the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) and the World Banana Forum (WBF), has developed a global programme to promote preventive approaches and support efforts for preparedness and management of the disease. In addition, FAO has provided technical assistance and policy guidance to affected countries to limit the spread of the disease.

WHERE: Upon detection of TR4 for the first time in Africa, an FAO emergency Technical Cooperation Project (TCP) has been implemented in Mozambique. Recently, three dedicated TR4 technical sessions have been organized during the regional workshops of the International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC) for Africa, Latin America and Caribbean; these took place in Kenya, Colombia and Antigua and Barbuda respectively. A regional TCP is soon to be completed in Southeast Asia, assisting development of capacities of Cambodia, China, p. 17 please spell out the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Myanmar, Thailand and Viet Nam. With regard to countries of the Southern African Development Community, the topic has been included among the target pests, to develop capacities for integrated pest management and to improve agricultural production and trade. A new TCP has been initiated to facilitate development of action plans and strengthening of national capacities in ten countries1* in Latin America and the Caribbean.

1 Ecuador, Colombia, Panama, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Dominica, Saint Lucia, Jamaica, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago.

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FOOD CHAIN CRISIS THREATS FORECASTING AT COUNTRY LEVEL

This section provides, at country level, for the upcoming three months, forecasting of FCC threats having potential high impact on food and nutrition security. It also provides, when available and appropriate, background information on other factors impacting food and nutrition security. The country section includes countries for which information are available. This section assigns countries and areas to geographic regions on the basis of the current composition of macro geographical (continental) regions of the United Nations Statistics Division (United Nations Statistics Division – Standard Country and Area Codes Classification (M49); http://unstats.un.org/unsd/methods/m49/m49regin.htm). The assessment of the likelihood of occurrence was performed using FAO data and information available at the time of preparation of this bulletin and might be subject to changes later.

Legend

Likelihood of occurrence Threats category High Moderate Low

Animal and zoonotic diseases

Aquatic diseases

Forest pests and diseases

Locusts

Plant pests and diseases

High: an event is highly likely to occur Moderate: an event is likely to occur Low: an event is unlikely to occur

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FOOD CHAIN CRISIS THREATS FORECASTING AT COUNTRY LEVEL

AFRICA

Algeria Benin

Botswana Threat category: Locusts Threat name: Desert Locust Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Likelihood of occurrence: Low Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) Forecast (October-December 2019): Small-scale breeding may Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate occur near the irrigated perimeters of the central Sahara and Forecast (October-December 2019): Foot-and-mouth disease, during October in the south; no significant developments are serotype O, is likely to occur in the country through introduction expected. from a neighbouring country. Context: Numerous Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria) Context: FMD, serotype O outbreaks have occurred in Zambia populations pose a threat to agricultural production in Africa, since March 2018. The last FMD, serotype O outbreak was the Middle East and Asia, and have a negative impact on food reported in Zambia in April 2019. These events are of concern security. The livelihoods of at least one tenth of the world’s because the disease may spread into the southern African population may be affected by this voracious insect. Desert region, which has never been affected by this particular serotype Locusts are potentially the most dangerous locust pests, due to before. FMD is a highly contagious disease among cattle, swarms’ ability to fly quickly over long distances. buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp drop in milk and meat production, in addition to mortality in young animals. It is Angola the most disruptive animal disease for livestock trade. Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Likelihood of occurrence: High Forecast (October-December 2019): Maize will be in the growing and harvesting stages. Therefore, there is a high risk of FAW amplification during the forecasting period. Context: FAW was reported in 2017. More than 19 000 ha of maize, millet and sorghum crops were devastated, causing approximately US$ 1.8 million in damages, according to official reports.

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Burkina Faso Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Banana bunchy top disease (BBTD) Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): BBTD is likely to spread. Forecast (October-December 2019): The further spread of Foot- Context: The disease is currently present in the northern part and-mouth disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within of the country and has already affected banana production in the country. recent years. BBTD is transmitted through infected cuttings or Context: FMD, serotype O has been circulating since July 2018 aphids and causes stunting and a bunchy appearance. If any fruit in western African countries (such as Burkina Faso, Chad, Côte is produced, it would be deformed. d’Ivoire, the Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, the Niger, Nigeria, Mauritania, Senegal and Sierra Leone). The virus Central African Republic observed seems to be genetically very close to the virus that Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases has been circulating in Algeria since 2014 (serotype O, topotype EA3). Further spread of the disease is likely to occur within the Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) infected countries and in the whole region, where livestock Likelihood of occurrence: High is not immunized against this particular strain of the virus. Forecast (October-December 2019): The potential risk of RVF Animal mobility is the main risk factor in the spread of FMD in occurrence is considered high, given the presence of suitable the region. Exceptionally, in recent years, FMD has also been environmental conditions for vector amplification, animal observed in small ruminants (in Senegal, Mali and Mauritania), movement and informal marketing of infected animals. reflecting an unusual trend and likely new strains or subtypes Context: During the past three months above-average and circulating in the subregion. FMD is a highly contagious disease heavy rainfall and flash floods occurred in the region particularly among cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp during the end of August and early September as well as in early drop in milk and meat production, in addition to mortality in October 2019. The precipitation forecasts predict above-average young animals. It is the most disruptive animal disease for rains for the coming period (October-December 2019) for Chad, livestock trade. Central African Republic, southern Sudan and the whole eastern Burundi Africa region. In August 2019, the first confirmed case ever of RVF in humans was reported in Bangui, Central African Republic. Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Chad, Kenya, the Sudan, South Sudan and Central African Republic Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) could be considered at high risk of RVF occurrence. RVF is a viral zoonosis that primarily affects animals but also has the capacity Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate to infect humans, causing significant economic losses due to death Forecast (October-December 2019): Maize will be in the and abortion of RVF-infected livestock. growing stage. Therefore, there will be a moderate risk of FAW amplification during the forecasting period. Chad Context: FAW presence has been confirmed in all 17 provinces Threat category: Locusts of the country; however, data on the incidence and severity of the damage are not available yet. Threat name: Desert Locust Likelihood of occurrence: Low Cameroon Forecast (October-December 2019): Small-scale breeding will Threat category: Plant pests and diseases end and no significant developments are likely. Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Context: Numerous Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria) populations pose a threat to agricultural production in Africa, Likelihood of occurrence: High the Middle East and Asia, and have a negative impact on food Forecast (October-December 2019): Maize will be in the security. The livelihoods of at least one tenth of the world’s growing and harvesting stages. Therefore, there will be a high population may be affected by this voracious insect. Desert risk of FAW amplification during the forecasting period. Locusts are potentially the most dangerous locust pests, due to Context: The presence of FAW was detected in maize farms swarms’ ability to fly quickly over long distances. in the western region of Cameroon, in December 2015. FAW has been recorded in the ten regions of Cameroon. Initial yield losses due to Spodoptera frugiperda in Cameroon are estimated at 0.3–0.8 million tons, for a value of US$ 0.1–0.8 billion.

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Chad Comoros Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): The further spread of Foot- Forecast (October-December 2019): The further spread of Foot- and-mouth disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within and-mouth disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within the country. the country. Context: FMD, serotype O has been circulating since July 2018 Context: In Comoros, an FMD, serotype O outbreak occurred in western African countries (such as Burkina Faso, Chad, Côte in March 2019. The disease may have spread from the d’Ivoire, the Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, neighbouring United Republic of Tanzania (where it is endemic). the Niger, Nigeria, Mauritania, Senegal and Sierra Leone). The This event is of concern because the disease can spread virus observed appears to be genetically very close to the virus within Comoros itself or into neighbouring countries, such as that has been circulating in Algeria since 2014 (serotype O, Mozambique or Madagascar, through movement of animals. topotype EA3). Further spread of the disease is likely to occur FMD is a highly contagious disease among cattle, buffalo, within the infected countries and in the whole region, where sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp drop in milk and meat livestock is not immunized against this particular strain of the production, in addition to mortality in young animals. It is the virus. Animal mobility is the main risk factor in the spread of most disruptive animal disease for livestock trade. FMD in the region. Exceptionally, in recent years, FMD has also Congo been observed in small ruminants (Senegal, Mali, Mauritania), reflecting an unusual trend and likely new strains or subtypes Threat category: Plant pests and diseases circulating in the subregion. FMD is a highly contagious disease Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) among cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp Likelihood of occurrence: High drop in milk and meat production, in addition to mortality in young animals. It is the most disruptive animal disease for Forecast (October-December 2019): Maize will be in the livestock trade. growing and harvesting stages during November and December. Therefore, there will be a moderate risk of FAW amplification during the forecasting period. Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Context: In July 2017, FAW was reported in the country. Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) The pest was identified in four maize production areas in the Likelihood of occurrence: High northern, central and southern parts of the country. It has also Forecast (October-December 2019): The potential risk of RVF been observed in sugar cane. Currently, the Government does occurrence is considered high, given the presence of suitable not have a complete mapping of pest infestations, nor statistics environmental conditions for vector amplification, animal on production losses. Smallholder farmers, experimental movement and informal marketing of infected animals. farms in agricultural centres and large private farms have been affected. Context: During the past three months above-average and heavy rainfall and flash floods occurred in the region particularly Côte d’Ivoire during the end of August and early September as well as in early October 2019. The precipitation forecasts predict above- Threat category: Plant pests and diseases average rains for the coming period (October-December 2019) Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) for Chad, Central African Republic, southern Sudan and the Likelihood of occurrence: High whole eastern Africa region. Chad, Kenya, the Sudan, South Sudan and Central African Republic could be considered at high Forecast (October-December 2019): Maize will be in the risk of RVF occurrence. RVF is a viral zoonosis that primarily growing and harvesting stages. Therefore, there will be a high affects animals but also has the capacity to infect humans, risk of FAW amplification during the forecasting period. causing significant economic losses due to death and abortion of Context: FAW prevalence in the country has been assessed and RVF-infected livestock. some regions may have not been infested by FAW yet. However, FAW is highly likely to spread to the entire country.

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Côte d’Ivoire Djibouti Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): The further spread of Foot- Forecast (October-December 2019): FAW is likely to be and-mouth disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within introduced into the country from neighbouring Ethiopia. the country. Nevertheless, its spread will be limited because of the arid conditions prevailing and the limited availability of its preferred Context: FMD, serotype O has been circulating since July 2018 host (maize). in western African countries (such as Burkina Faso, Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, the Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, the Context: The pest is suspected to be present; however, this has Niger, Nigeria, Mauritania, Senegal and Sierra Leone). The virus not been confirmed. observed appears to be genetically very close to the virus that has been circulating in Algeria since 2014 (serotype O, topotype Egypt EA3). Further spread of the disease is likely to occur within the Threat category: Plant pests and diseases infected countries and in the whole region, where livestock Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) is not immunized against this particular strain of the virus. Animal mobility is the main risk factor in the spread of FMD in Likelihood of occurrence: High the region. Exceptionally, in recent years, FMD has also been Forecast (October-December 2019): FAW may continue to observed in small ruminants (in Senegal, Mali, Mauritania), spread as many of FAW’s preferred host plants are cultivated reflecting an unusual trend and likely new strains or subtypes in Egypt all year around, which increases the likelihood of circulating in the subregion. FMD is a highly contagious disease dispersal. among cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp Context: FAW has been reported in Upper Egypt in May 2019 drop in milk and meat production, in addition to mortality in on maize fields and continues to move north. If FAW reaches young animals. It is the most disruptive animal disease for the delta, it could cause significant losses to maize unless strict livestock trade. monitoring and management actions are taken.

Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Swollen shoot virus disease Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): Spread of Swollen shoot Forecast (October-December 2019): H5 Highly pathogenic avian virus disease of cocoa is very likely. influenza (HPAI) outbreaks are expected to increase towards Context: The disease is present in the country and having an December. impact on production. The virus spreads particularly through Context: H5N1 HPAI is endemic in Egypt. H5N8 HPAI has been mealybugs and can spread further from its current locations. present in the country since November 2016. HPAI is a highly Surveillance, rapid eradication and integrated management contagious disease causing high mortality in domestic birds. approaches are essential for control. It generally results in severe production losses, loss of export markets and drastic disease control measures that include Democratic Republic of the Congo culling of infected and in-contact birds. This has an impact on Threat category: Plant pests and diseases food security and trade. Some AI viruses can affect humans. Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Likelihood of occurrence: High Forecast (October-December 2019): Maize will be in the growing stage. Therefore, there will be a high risk of FAW amplification during the forecasting period. Context: FAW was first reported in the country in December 2016. Actions to manage the pest are ongoing.

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Ethiopia Eritrea

Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Threat name: Wheat rust Likelihood of occurrence: High Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): Maize will be in the Forecast (October-December 2019): Outbreaks of wheat yellow growing stage. Therefore, there will be a high risk of FAW and stem rust diseases are possible. amplification during the forecasting period. Context: These diseases are recurrent constraints. Epidemics Context: FAW was first detected in Big Bend and Siphofaneni in are possible due to the presence of heavy inoculum loads eastern Eswatini. Subsequent detection have been recorded in from the previous season. The severity is forecasted as Lomahasha, Nkambeni and Mkhuzweni in the northeastern part moderate; however, it may escalate if higher level of rainfalls of Eswatini. Isolated and one-off cases have been recorded in are experienced. Wheat rusts infect mostly the leaves, reducing central and western Eswatini in young maize fields. The NPPO the photosynthesis area and resulting in a reduced number of, has intensified delimiting surveys in areas where the pest has and shrivelled, grains. Regular surveys and timely response are been detected, that is, the eastern and central parts of the essential for management. country.

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Gabon Gambia

Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) Likelihood of occurrence: High Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): Maize will be in the Forecast (October-December 2019): The further spread of Foot- growing and harvesting stages. Therefore, there will be a and-mouth disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within moderate risk of FAW amplification during the forecasting the country. period. Context: Exceptionally, in recent years, FMD has also been Context: In Gabon, FAW was first observed in 2017 in the observed in small ruminants (in Senegal, Mali, Mauritania), provinces of Estuaire and Haut-Ogooué. Following these first reflecting an unusual trend and likely new strains or subtypes observations, official surveys were carried out in the circulating in the subregion. FMD, serotype O has been 9 provinces of Gabon mainly in maize crops, but also in rice, circulating since July 2018 in western African countries (such as sugarcane and vegetable crops, to determine the extent of the Burkina Faso, Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, the Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, outbreak. Survey results confirmed the presence of FAW in the Guinea-Bissau, Mali, the Niger, Nigeria, Mauritania, Senegal 9 provinces of Gabon (in order of decreasing incidence: and Sierra Leone). The virus observed appears to be genetically Woleu-Ntem, Ogooué Ivindo, Estuaire, Moyen Ogooué, Ngounié, very close to the virus that has been circulating in Algeria since Haut Ogooué, Nyanga, Ogooué Maritime, Ogooué Lolo). The 2014 (serotype O, topotype EA3). Further spread of the disease pest was mainly found in maize crops, but it was also observed is likely to occur within the infected countries and in the whole in sugarcane in the province of Nyanga. A national action plan region, where livestock is not immunized against this particular has been elaborated to manage FAW in Gabon. strain of the virus. Animal mobility is the main risk factor in the spread of FMD in the region. FMD is a highly contagious disease among cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a Threat category: Plant pests and diseases sharp drop in milk and meat production, in addition to mortality Threat name: Banana bunchy top disease (BBTD) in young animals. It is the most disruptive animal disease for Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate livestock trade. Forecast (October-December 2019): BBTD is likely to occur due Ghana to previous presence. Context: The disease is currently present in the northern part Threat category: Plant pests and diseases of the country and has already affected banana production in Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) recent years. BBTD is transmitted through infected cuttings or Likelihood of occurrence: High aphids and causes stunting and a bunchy appearance. If any fruit is produced, it would be deformed. Forecast (October-December 2019): Maize will be in the growing and harvesting stages during November and December. Therefore, there will be a high risk of FAW amplification during the forecasting period. Context: FAW was first spotted in the Yilo Krobo district in the Eastern region of Ghana in 2016. Reports indicate that the country has lost US$ 64 million due to FAW infestation, which covered 20 000 ha of farmland in 2018 alone.

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Guinea Ghana Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): The further spread of Foot- Forecast (October-December 2019): The further spread of Foot- and-mouth disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within and-mouth disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within the country. the country. Context: FMD, serotype O has been circulating since July 2018 Context: FMD, serotype O has been circulating since July 2018 in western African countries (such as Burkina Faso, Chad, Côte in western African countries (such as Burkina Faso, Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, the Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, the d’Ivoire, the Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, the Niger, Nigeria, Mauritania, Senegal and Sierra Leone). The virus Niger, Nigeria, Mauritania, Senegal and Sierra Leone). The virus observed appears to be genetically very close to the virus that observed appears to be genetically very close to the virus that has been circulating in Algeria since 2014 (serotype O, topotype has been circulating in Algeria since 2014 (serotype O, topotype EA3). Further spread of the disease is likely to occur within the EA3). Further spread of the disease is likely to occur within the infected countries and in the whole region, where livestock is infected countries and in the whole region, where livestock not immunized against this particular strain of the virus. Animal is not immunized against this particular strain of the virus. mobility is the main risk factor in the spread of FMD in the Animal mobility is the main risk factor in the spread of FMD in region. FMD is a highly contagious disease among cattle, buffalo, the region. Exceptionally, in recent years, FMD has also been sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp drop in milk and meat observed in small ruminants (in Senegal, Mali, Mauritania), production, in addition to mortality in young animals. It is the reflecting an unusual trend and likely new strains or subtypes most disruptive animal disease for livestock trade. circulating in the subregion. FMD is a highly contagious disease among cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp drop in milk and meat production, in addition to mortality in Threat category: Aquatic diseases young animals. It is the most disruptive animal disease for Threat name: Tilapia lake virus (TiLV) livestock trade. Likelihood of occurrence: Low Guinea-Bissau Forecast (October-December 2019): TiLV has not been reported. However, it may be introduced and spread through live fish Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases movements of infected hosts. Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) Context: TiLV occurs when the water temperature is between Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate 22°C and 32°C; it has also been observed in farms with large- Forecast (October-December 2019): The further spread of Foot- sized fish and a high stocking density. In Ghana, high water and-mouth disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within temperatures occur from October to December. the country. Context: FMD, serotype O has been circulating since July 2018 in western African countries (such as Burkina Faso, Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, the Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, the Niger, Nigeria, Mauritania, Senegal and Sierra Leone). The virus observed seems to be genetically very close to the virus that has been circulating in Algeria since 2014 (serotype O, topotype EA3). Further spread of the disease is likely to occur within the infected countries and in the whole region, where livestock is not immunized against this particular strain of the virus. Animal mobility is the main risk factor in the spread of FMD in the region. Exceptionally, in recent years, FMD has also been observed in small ruminant (in Senegal, Mali, Mauritania), reflecting an unusual trend and likely new strains or subtypes circulating in the subregion. FMD is a highly contagious disease among cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp drop in milk and meat production, in addition to mortality in young animals. It is the most disruptive animal disease for livestock trade.

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Kenya Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Plant pests and diseases Threat category: Threat name: Wheat rust Fall armyworm (FAW) Threat name: Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Moderate Likelihood of occurrence: Forecast (October-December 2019): Outbreaks of wheat yellow Forecast (October-December 2019): FAW could increase and and stem rust diseases are possible. spread during the growing stage in December, in the short and Context: These diseases have been present in the country for long rain areas. years. Epidemics are possible due to the presence of heavy Context: FAW has been reported in 43 counties. Generally, inoculum loads from the previous season. The severity is FAW infestations in 2019 are expected to be lower compared forecasted as moderate; however, it may escalate if higher to those occurring during the same season last year, because level of rainfalls are experienced. Wheat rusts infect mostly of enhanced preparedness resulting from farmer trainings, the leaves, reducing the photosynthesis area and resulting in a monitoring and improved FAW management practices for early reduced number of, and shrivelled, grains. Regular surveys and action. timely response are essential for management.

Threat category: Locusts Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Desert Locust Threat name: Cassava brown streak disease (CBSD) Likelihood of occurrence: Low Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): There is a very low risk of a Forecast (October-December 2019): Spread of CBSD is likely. few small swarms arriving in the northeast part of the country, Context: The disease is present in the northern part of the from the neighbouring areas of Ethiopia and Somalia. country on a limited scale. The disease can cause brownish Context: Numerous Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria) rots in tubers, rendering them inedible, which leads to a severe populations pose a threat to agricultural production in Africa, loss of economic value. Farmers may be unaware that cassava the Middle East and Asia, and have a negative impact on food crops are infected until they harvest and see the tuber lesions, security. The livelihoods of at least one tenth of the world’s as leaves may appear asymptomatic. The virus is transmitted population may be affected by this voracious insect. Desert through infected cuttings and whiteflies. Use of virus-free Locusts are potentially the most dangerous locust pests, due to planting materials and the adoption of integrated management swarms’ ability to fly quickly over long distances. is essential for control.

Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) Threat name: Cassava mosaic disease (CMD) Likelihood of occurrence: High Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): The potential risk of RVF Forecast (October-December 2019): Spread of CMD is likely. occurrence is considered high, given the presence of suitable Context: The disease is present in the northern part of the environmental conditions for vector amplification, animal country on a limited scale. CMD is considered one of the most movement and informal marketing of infected animals. damaging diseases of cassava in Africa. It is caused by a virus Context: During the past three months above-average and that causes chlorosis and distortions of the leaves, resulting heavy rainfall and flash floods occurred in the region particularly in yield reductions. It is transmitted by infected cuttings and during the end of August and early September as well as in whiteflies. early October 2019. The precipitation forecasts predict above- average rains for the coming period (October-December 2019) Libya for Chad, Central African Republic, southern Sudan and the whole eastern Africa region. Chad, Kenya, the Sudan, South Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Sudan and Central African Republic could be considered at high Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) risk of RVF occurrence. RVF is a viral zoonosis that primarily Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate affects animals but also has the capacity to infect humans, Forecast (October-December 2019): There is moderate causing significant economic losses due to death and abortion of possibility of FAW introduction over the next three months. RVF-infected livestock. The other countries in the region can be considered at moderate risk. Context: FAW has not been reported in Libya yet. Egypt has reported the pest, which was able to cross the natural barrier of the Sahara Desert. Therefore, North African countries are at risk of FAW introduction.

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Libya Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): Foot-and-mouth disease, Forecast (October-December 2019): The further spread of serotype O, is likely to occur in the country through introduction Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur from a neighbouring country. within the country. Context: In Comoros, an FMD, serotype O outbreak occurred Context: FMD serotype O strain occurred again in the country in March 2019. The disease may have spread from the in April 2019, after the serotype had not been reported since neighbouring United Republic of Tanzania (where it is endemic). 2014. FMD is a highly contagious disease among cattle, buffalo, This event is of concern because the disease can spread sheep, and pigs that can cause a sharp drop in milk and meat within Comoros itself or into neighbouring countries, such as production, in addition to mortality in young animals. It is the Mozambique or Madagascar, through movement of animals. most disruptive animal disease for livestock trade. FMD is a highly contagious disease among cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp drop in milk and meat Madagascar production, in addition to mortality in young animals. It is the most disruptive animal disease for livestock trade. Threat category: Locusts Threat name: Migratory Locust Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Likelihood of occurrence: High Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) Forecast (October-December 2019): With the onset of the 2019/2020 rainy season in autumn, locust numbers may Likelihood of occurrence: Low seriously increase. Forecast (October-December 2019): The potential risk of Context: Madagascar is prone to frequent Migratory Locust crises RVF outbreaks is considered low, according to the FAO RVF that affect the livelihoods as well as food and nutrition security Monitoring/Early Warning System. of the population. The last plague occurred from April 2012 to Context: The precipitation forecasts predict from normal to July 2016 and threatened 13 million persons. According to the below-normal rains for the coming period (October-December national bulletins, the situation deteriorated during spring, when 2019) for the whole southern Africa region, except for the abundant precipitation created favourable conditions for locust northern Mozambique. Small localized risk areas for vector development. Dense populations infested over amplification are also predicted in central south Africa and 350 000 ha in April, forming swarms and hopper bands. south-west Madagascar. Here the risk could be considered low. RVF is a viral zoonosis that primarily affects animals but also has the capacity to infect humans, causing significant economic Threat category: Locusts losses due to death and abortion of RVF-infected livestock. Threat name: Red Locust Likelihood of occurrence: Low Malawi Forecast (October-December 2019): Adults that have survived Threat category: Plant pests and diseases the dry and cool season will breed (unique generation of Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) breeding of the 2019/2020 rainy season) and numbers will increase accordingly. Likelihood of occurrence: High Context: The Red Locust produces much less frequent outbreaks Forecast (October-December 2019): Maize will be in the than the Malagasy Migratory Locust. growing and harvesting stages. Therefore, there will be a high risk of FAW amplification during the forecasting period. Context: In November 2017, FAW was confirmed in Malawi. By December 2017, it had destroyed the crops of almost 140 000 farming families. This led to the Government declaring 20 of the country’s 28 districts as disaster areas, following invasion by FAW.

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Malawi Threat category: Forest pests and diseases Threat category: Locusts Threat name: Red gum lerp psyllid Threat name: Red Locust Likelihood of occurrence: High Likelihood of occurrence: Low Forecast (October-December 2019): Red gum lerp psyllid is Forecast (October-December 2019): Scattered locust highly likely to spread in eucalyptus plantations. populations and low-density swarms were detected over Context: The combination of climate change, with the general 3 000 ha. The risks of developing large swarms is low; however, decline of forest conditions, and the occurrence of Red gum lerp there is a risk of swarm invasion from the neighbouring United psyllid continues to damage plantations and small woodlots. Republic of Tanzania.

Context: Red Locust plagues pose a major threat to agriculture Threat category: Forest pests and diseases in Southern Africa. Failure to control locust outbreaks during the early stages of development can result in highly mobile Threat name: Blue gum chalcid swarms, which invade agricultural areas and can cause major Likelihood of occurrence: High crop damage. Forecast (October-December 2019): Outbreaks of the Blue gum chalcid insect are highly likely to continue to occur in eucalyptus Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases nurseries and plantations. Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) Context: Blue gum chalcid continues to cause severe damages in nurseries and young eucalyptus plantations. Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): The further spread of Foot- Mali and-mouth disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within the country in non-vaccinated areas. Threat category: Locusts Context: FMD serotype O outbreaks have occurred in Zambia Threat name: Desert Locust since April 2018. The last FMD, serotype O outbreak in Zambia Likelihood of occurrence: Low was reported in February 2019. These events are of concern Forecast (October-December 2019): Small-scale breeding will because the disease may spread into the southern Africa region, end and low numbers of adults are likely to persist in the Adrar which has never been affected by this particular serotype des Iforas. before. FMD is a highly contagious disease among cattle, Numerous Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria) buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp drop in milk and Context: populations pose a threat to agricultural production in Africa, meat production, in addition to mortality in young animals. It is the Middle East and Asia, and have a negative impact on food the most disruptive animal disease for livestock trade. security. The livelihoods of at least one tenth of the world’s population may be affected by this voracious insect. Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Desert Locusts are potentially the most dangerous locust pests, Threat name: Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) due to swarms’ ability to fly quickly over long distances. Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): Peste des petits ruminants Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases (PPR) outbreaks are likely to occur through possible introduction Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) from neighbouring countries. Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Context: To date, no outbreaks of PPR have been officially Forecast (October-December 2019): The potential risk of RVF reported in the country. PPR outbreaks continue to occur in occurrence is considered moderate, given the presence of the neighbouring United Republic of Tanzania and Democratic suitable environmental conditions for vector amplification, Republic of Congo, which are considered endemic for the animal movement and informal marketing of infected animals. disease. PPR is a highly contagious disease affecting sheep and In September, torrential rains in Mali and Senegal goats. It that is caused by a morbillivirus and is considered to be Context: damaged infrastructure and crops over many local areas. one of the most damaging livestock diseases in Africa. Above-normal rains is predicted for October 2019 maintaining the flood in these areas. The precipitation forecasts for November and December 2019 predict normal rains in the region. A low to moderate potential risk of RVF occurrence can be considered along the Senegal River between Mauritania and Senegal, in east-central Senegal, in larger areas in central Mali, in south-eastern Mauritania and in small, localized, areas in the Niger. RVF is a viral zoonosis that primarily affects animals but also has the capacity to infect humans, causing significant economic losses due to death and abortion of RVF-infected livestock.

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Mali Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): The potential risk of RVF Forecast (October-December 2019): The further spread of Foot- occurrence is considered moderate, given the presence of and-mouth disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within suitable environmental conditions for vector amplification, the country. animal movement and informal marketing of infected animals. Context: FMD, serotype O has been circulating since July 2018 Context: In September, torrential rains in Mali and Senegal in western African countries (such as Burkina Faso, Chad, Côte damaged infrastructure and crops over many local areas. d’Ivoire, the Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, the Above-normal rains is predicted for October 2019 maintaining Niger, Nigeria, Mauritania, Senegal and Sierra Leone). the flood in these areas. The precipitation forecasts for The virus observed appears to be genetically very close to the November and December 2019 predict normal rains in the virus that has been circulating in Algeria since 2014 (serotype O, region. A low to moderate potential risk of RVF occurrence can topotype EA3). Further spread of the disease is likely to occur be considered along the Senegal River between Mauritania and within the infected countries and in the whole region, where Senegal, in east-central Senegal, in larger areas in central Mali, livestock is not immunized against this particular strain of the in south-eastern Mauritania and in small, localized, areas in virus. Animal mobility is the main risk factor in the spread of the Niger. RVF is a viral zoonosis that primarily affects animals FMD in the region. Exceptionally, in recent years, FMD has also but also has the capacity to infect humans, causing significant been observed in small ruminants (Senegal, Mali, Mauritania), economic losses due to death and abortion of RVF-infected reflecting an unusual trend and likely new strains or subtypes livestock. circulating in the subregion. FMD is a highly contagious disease among cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp Morocco drop in milk and meat production, in addition to mortality in Threat category: Plant pests and diseases young animals. It is the most disruptive animal disease for livestock trade. Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Likelihood of occurrence: Low Mauritania Forecast (October-December 2019): There is low possibility of Threat category: Plant pests and diseases FAW introduction to the country. Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Context: FAW has not been reported in Morroco yet. Egypt has reported the pest, which was able to cross the natural barrier of Likelihood of occurrence: Low the Sahara Desert. Therefore, North African countries are at risk Forecast (October-December 2019): There is low possibility of of FAW introduction. FAW introduction to the country. Context: FAW has not been reported in Mauritania yet. Mozambique Egypt has reported the pest, which was able to cross the natural Threat category: Locusts barrier of the Sahara Desert. Therefore, North African countries are at risk of FAW introduction. Threat name: Red Locust Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Threat category: Locusts Forecast (October-December 2019): Low- to medium-density locust concentrations may develop into large swarms, which Threat name: Desert Locust could escape from the breeding areas. Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Context: Red Locust plagues pose a major threat to agriculture Forecast (October-December 2019): Small-scale breeding will in southern Africa. Failure to control locust outbreaks during end in the south and low numbers of locusts will move to the the early stages of development can result in highly mobile northeast, where limited breeding could occur; this would cause swarms, which invade agricultural areas and can cause major locust numbers to increase slightly. crop damage. Context: Numerous Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria) populations pose a threat to agricultural production in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, and have a negative impact on food security. The livelihoods of at least one tenth of the world’s population may be affected by this voracious insect. Desert Locusts are potentially the most dangerous locust pests, due to swarms’ ability to fly quickly over long distances.

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Mozambique Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Banana fusarium wilt disease Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): Spread of Fusarium wilt Forecast (October-December 2019): Foot-and-mouth disease, disease TR4 on banana is likely. serotype O, is likely to occur in the country through introduction Context: The most recent race of the fungus causing Banana from a neighbouring country. fusarium wilt disease (Tropical Race 4) has affected two farms Context: In Comoros, an FMD, serotype O outbreak occurred in Nampula province. The fungus is soilborne and cannot be in March 2019. The disease may have spread from the eradicated once it becomes established in the soil. The disease neighbouring United Republic of Tanzania (where it is endemic). attacks banana plants of all ages, initially appearing with a This event is of concern because the disease can spread yellowing of the leaves, then causing wilting and plant death. within Comoros itself or into neighbouring countries, such as Infected planting materials, water and movement of infested Mozambique or Madagascar, through movement of animals. soil particles with shoes, tools and vehicles play a major role in FMD is a highly contagious disease among cattle, buffalo, spread. The disease can remain viable in soil for decades and sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp drop in milk and meat containment and management are challenging. Thus, prevention production, in addition to mortality in young animals. It is the of spread is crucial. most disruptive animal disease for livestock trade. Threat category: Forest pests and diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Red gum lerp psyllid Threat name: Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): Red gum lerp psyllid Forecast (October-December 2019): Peste des petits ruminants outbreaks are likely to continue to occur in eucalyptus (PPR) outbreaks are likely to occur through possible introduction plantations. from neighbouring countries. Context: Monitoring of pest spread is in progress. Context: To date, no outbreaks of PPR have been officially reported in the country. PPR outbreaks continue to occur in Namibia the neighbouring United Republic of Tanzania and Democratic Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Republic of Congo, which are considered endemic for the disease. PPR is a highly contagious disease affecting sheep and Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) goats. It is caused by a morbillivirus and is considered to be one Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate of the most damaging livestock diseases in Africa. Forecast (October-December 2019): Foot-and-mouth disease, serotype O, is likely to occur in the country through introduction Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases from a neighbouring country. Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) Context: FMD, serotype O outbreaks have occurred in Zambia since March 2018. The last FMD, serotype O outbreak was Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate reported in Zambia in April 2019. These events are of concern Forecast (October-December 2019): The potential risk of RVF because the disease may spread into the southern African outbreaks is considered moderate, according to the FAO RVF region, which has never been affected by this particular serotype Monitoring/Early Warning System. before. FMD is a highly contagious disease among cattle, Context: The precipitation forecasts predict from normal to buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp drop in milk and below-normal rains for the coming period (October-December meat production, in addition to mortality in young animals. It is 2019) for the whole southern Africa region, except for the the most disruptive animal disease for livestock trade. northern Mozambique. The FAO RVF Monitoring/Early Warning tool highlights a large area at risk of RVF vector amplification in north and center Mozambique. The latter was an area heavily hit by the cyclone Idai in March 2019. Extensive and protracted flooding and retain of water may have increased the vegetation cover in the area, thus enhancing the suitability for vector amplification. These areas could be considered at moderate risk of RVF occurrence. RVF is a viral zoonosis that primarily affects animals but also has the capacity to infect humans, causing significant economic losses due to death and abortion of RVF-infected livestock.

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Niger Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Locusts Threat category: Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) Desert Locust Threat name: Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Low Likelihood of occurrence: Forecast (October-December 2019): The further spread of Foot- Forecast (October-December 2019): Small-scale breeding will and-mouth disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within end in Tamesna and central pasture areas, and low numbers of the country. locusts may persist in the Air Mountains. Context: FMD, serotype O has been circulating since July 2018 Context: Numerous Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria) in western African countries (such as Burkina Faso, Chad, Côte populations pose a threat to agricultural production in Africa, d’Ivoire, the Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, the the Middle East and Asia, and have a negative impact on food Niger, Nigeria, Mauritania, Senegal and Sierra Leone). security. The livelihoods of at least one tenth of the world’s The virus observed appears to be genetically very close to the population may be affected by this voracious insect. virus that has been circulating in Algeria since 2014 (serotype O, Desert Locusts are potentially the most dangerous locust pests, topotype EA3). Further spread of the disease is likely to occur due to swarms’ ability to fly quickly over long distances. within the infected countries and in the whole region, where livestock is not immunized against this particular strain of the Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases virus. Animal mobility is the main risk factor in the spread of FMD in the region. Exceptionally, in recent years, FMD has also Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) been observed in small ruminants (Senegal, Mali, Mauritania), Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate reflecting an unusual trend and likely new strains or subtypes Forecast (October-December 2019): The potential risk of RVF circulating in the subregion. FMD is a highly contagious disease occurrence is considered moderate, given the presence of among cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp suitable environmental conditions for vector amplification, drop in milk and meat production, in addition to mortality in animal movement and informal marketing of infected animals. young animals. It is the most disruptive animal disease for livestock trade. Context: In September, torrential rains in Mali and Senegal damaged infrastructure and crops over many local areas. Nigeria Above-normal rains is predicted for October 2019 maintaining the flood in these areas. The precipitation forecasts for Threat category: Plant pests and diseases November and December 2019 predict normal rains in the Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) region. A low to moderate potential risk of RVF occurrence can be considered along the Senegal River between Mauritania and Likelihood of occurrence: High Senegal, in east-central Senegal, in larger areas in central Mali, Forecast (October-December 2019): Maize will be in the in south-eastern Mauritania and in small, localized, areas in growing and harvesting stages. Therefore, there will be a high the Niger. RVF is a viral zoonosis that primarily affects animals risk of FAW amplification during the forecasting period. but also has the capacity to infect humans, causing significant Context: Capacities for FAW management have been economic losses due to death and abortion of RVF-infected strengthened through the implementation of various projects. livestock. However, more efforts will be required as the country is one of the most important producers of maize in the region.

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Nigeria Threat category: Aquatic diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Tilapia lake virus (TiLV) Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) Likelihood of occurrence: Low Likelihood of occurrence: Low Forecast (October-December 2019): TiLV has not been reported. Forecast (October-December 2019): H5 Highly pathogenic avian However, it may be introduced and spread through live influenza (HPAI) outbreaks are expected to remain at low levels. movements of infected hosts. Context: The H5N1 HPAI virus has been circulating in Central Context: TiLV occurs when the water temperature is between and West Africa since December 2014, and Nigeria was the most 22°C and 32°C, and it has been observed in farms with affected country, with over 790 outbreaks reported in domestic large-sized fish and high stocking density. Where unexplained birds across 26 states. The last outbreak of H5N1 HPAI was mortalities of tilapia occur, appropriate diagnostic tests should reported at the end of May 2017. H5N8 HPAI has been spreading be done. This is particularly necessary when clinical signs similar globally, following bird migratory routes, since November 2016. to those reported for TiLV and permissive temperatures are In Nigeria, 18 outbreaks of H5N8 HPAI were reported between present. November 2016 and April 2019 (Bauchi, Edio, Kano, Nassarawa, Ogun and Plateau States). HPAI is a highly contagious disease Rwanda causing high mortality in domestic birds. It generally results in Threat category: Plant pests and diseases severe production losses, loss of export markets and drastic disease control measures that include culling of infected and Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) in-contact birds. This has an impact on food security and trade. Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Some AI viruses can affect humans. Forecast (October-December 2019): FAW may spread and increase with the onset of the maize season A. Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Context: In March 2017, during field inspections in Rwanda, Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) a number of maize and sorghum plants were found to be infested with FAW larvae. It was estimated that FAW impacted Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate approximately 17 521 ha on a total of over 60 000 ha of maize Forecast (October-December 2019): The further spread of Foot- during season B last year. FAW has infested all 30 districts of the and-mouth disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within country. the country.

Context: FMD, serotype O has been circulating since July 2018 Threat category: Forest pests and diseases in western African countries (such as Burkina Faso, Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, the Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, the Threat name: Red gum lerp psyllid Niger, Nigeria, Mauritania, Senegal and Sierra Leone). Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate The virus observed seems to be genetically very close to the Forecast (October-December 2019): Red gum lerp psyllid virus that has been circulating in Algeria since 2014 (serotype O, outbreaks are likely to continue to occur in eucalyptus topotype EA3). Further spread of the disease is likely to occur plantations. within the infected countries and in the whole region, where The insect pest Red gum lerp psyllid has been livestock is not immunized against this particular strain of the Context: damaging eucalyptus plantations since 2015 in Rwanda. virus. Animal mobility is the main risk factor in the spread of A survey to quantify the spread of the pest is being organized FMD in the region. Exceptionally, in recent years, FMD has also been observed in small ruminants (Senegal, Mali, Mauritania), and approaches to manage the pest using biological control are reflecting an unusual trend and likely new strains or subtypes under way. circulating in the subregion. FMD is a highly contagious disease among cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp Threat category: Forest pests and diseases drop in milk and meat production, in addition to mortality in Threat name: Bronze bug young animals. It is the most disruptive animal disease for livestock trade. Likelihood of occurrence: High Forecast (October-December 2019): The Bronze bug insect pest is highly likely to spread in eucalyptus plantations. Context: The Bronze bug insect pest damages eucalyptus plantations. An assessment to quantify the spread of the pest is in progress.

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Senegal Sierra Leone

Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): The further spread of Foot- Forecast (October-December 2019): The further spread of Foot- and-mouth disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within and-mouth disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within the country. the country. Context: FMD, serotype O has been circulating since July 2018 Context: FMD, serotype O has been circulating since July 2018 in western African countries (such as Burkina Faso, Chad, Côte in western African countries (such as Burkina Faso, Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, the Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, the d’Ivoire, the Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, the Niger, Nigeria, Mauritania, Senegal and Sierra Leone). The virus Niger, Nigeria, Mauritania, Senegal and Sierra Leone). The virus observed appears to be genetically very close to the virus that observed appears to be genetically very close to the virus that has been circulating in Algeria since 2014 (serotype O, topotype has been circulating in Algeria since 2014 (serotype O, topotype EA3). Further spread of the disease is likely to occur within the EA3). Further spread of the disease is likely to occur within the infected countries and in the whole region, where livestock infected countries and in the whole region, where livestock is is not immunized against this particular strain of the virus. not immunized against this particular strain of the virus. Animal Animal mobility is the main risk factor in the spread of FMD in mobility is the main risk factor in the spread of FMD in the the region. Exceptionally, in recent years, FMD has also been region. Exceptionally, in recent years, FMD has also observed in observed in small ruminants (in Senegal, Mali, Mauritania), small ruminants (in Senegal, Mali and Mauritania), reflecting an reflecting an unusual trend and likely new strains or subtypes unusual trend and likely new strains or subtypes circulating in circulating in the subregion. FMD is a highly contagious disease the subregion. FMD is a highly contagious disease among cattle, among cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp drop in milk and drop in milk and meat production, in addition to mortality in meat production, in addition to mortality in young animals. It is young animals. It is the most disruptive animal disease for the most disruptive animal disease for livestock trade. livestock trade. Somalia

Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): The potential risk of RVF Forecast (October-December 2019): FAW may spread and occurrence is considered moderate, given the presence of increase with the onset of the maize season. suitable environmental conditions for vector amplification, Context: The first time FAW was seen in Somalia was end 2017. animal movement and informal marketing of infected animals. A major infestation occurred in maize, especially in the south Context: In September, torrential rains in Mali and Senegal and in northwest Somalia. FAW is now fully established across damaged infrastructure and crops over many local areas. the country; farmers have neither adequate knowledge nor Above-normal rains is predicted for October 2019 maintaining resources to manage the pest in their crops. floods in these areas. The precipitation forecasts for November and December 2019 predict normal rains in the region. A low Threat category: Locusts to moderate potential risk of RVF occurrence can be considered along the Senegal River between Mauritania and Senegal, in Threat name: Desert Locust east-central Senegal, in larger areas in central Mali, in south- Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate eastern Mauritania and in small, localized, areas in the Niger. Forecast (October-December 2019): Small-scale breeding may RVF is a viral zoonosis that primarily affects animals but also occur on the northern plateau and is expected to commence on has the capacity to infect humans, causing significant economic the northwest coast, causing locust numbers to increase slightly. losses due to death and abortion of RVF-infected livestock. This may be supplemented by groups and small swarms arriving from Yemen. Context: Numerous Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria) populations pose a threat to agricultural production in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, and have a negative impact on food security. The livelihoods of at least one tenth of the world’s population may be affected by this voracious insect. Desert Locusts are potentially the most dangerous locust pests, due to swarms’ ability to fly quickly over long distances.

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South Africa Threat category: Forest pests and diseases Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Blue gum chalcid Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Likelihood of occurrence: High Forecast (October-December 2019): Blue gum chalcid outbreaks Forecast (October-December 2019): Maize will be in the are likely to continue to occur in eucalyptus nurseries and young growing and harvesting stages. Therefore, there will be a high plantations. risk of FAW amplification during the forecasting period. Context: The application of biological control agents to reduce Context: FAW larvae were detected in the Settlers area in the pest population is in progress. mid-January 2017. Subsequently, FAW moths were detected in several areas in the Western Cape between June and August South Sudan 2018. FAW is currently present in all provinces of South Africa. Threat category: Plant pests and diseases The level of FAW infestation varies locally, in terms of the climate and host availability. Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Likelihood of occurrence: High Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Forecast (October-December 2019): Maize will be in the growing and harvesting stages. Therefore, there will be a high Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) risk of FAW amplification during the forecasting period. Likelihood of occurrence: Low Context: FAW was first reported in 2017 and the pest has now Forecast (October-December 2019): H5N8 Highly pathogenic spread across the entire country. FAW presence has been avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in poultry are likely to occur; reported in Magwi, Eastern Equatoria. The severity of the data however, a seasonal decline is expected. reported from the Greater Equatoria and Bahr el Ghazal regions Context: In June 2017, H5N8 HPAI virus was reported for the indicate that yield losses in maize could range between 20 to first time in South Africa. Since then, additional outbreaks and 50 percent. The losses in sorghum are expected to be lower, at infections have been observed, both in wild and domestic birds, approximately 10 to 30 percent, due to the greater resistance of in seven different regions of the country. The last outbreaks the major varieties to the pest in 2018 season. were reported in August 2019. HPAI is a highly contagious disease causing high mortality in domestic birds. It generally Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases results in severe production losses, loss of export markets and drastic disease control measures that include culling of infected Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) and in-contact birds. This has an impact on food security and Likelihood of occurrence: High trade. Some AI viruses can affect humans. Forecast (October-December 2019): The potential risk of RVF occurrence is considered high, given the presence of suitable Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases environmental conditions for vector amplification, animal movement and informal marketing of infected animals. Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) Context: During the past three months above-average and Likelihood of occurrence: Low heavy rainfall and flash floods occurred in the region particularly Forecast (October-December 2019): The potential risk of during the end of August and early September as well as in RVF outbreaks is considered low, according to the FAO RVF early October 2019. The precipitation forecasts predict Monitoring/Early Warning System. above-average rains for the coming period (October-December Context: The precipitation forecasts predict from normal to 2019) for Chad, Central African Republic, southern Sudan and below-normal rains for the coming period (October-December the whole eastern Africa region. Chad, Kenya, the Sudan, South 2019) for the whole southern Africa region, except for the Sudan and Central African Republic could be considered at high northern Mozambique. Small localized risk areas for vector risk of RVF occurrence. RVF is a viral zoonosis that primarily amplification are also predicted in central south Africa and affects animals but also has the capacity to infect humans, south-west Madagascar. Here the risk could be considered low. causing significant economic losses due to death and abortion of RVF is a viral zoonosis that primarily affects animals but also RVF-infected livestock. has the capacity to infect humans, causing significant economic losses due to death and abortion of RVF-infected livestock.

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Sudan Togo

Threat category: Locusts Tunisia Threat name: Desert Locust Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Forecast (October-December 2019): Summer breeding wil end in the interior. The locusts will move to the the Red Sea coastal Likelihood of occurrence: Low plains and breed on a small scale. Additional locusts from Eritrea Forecast (October-December 2019): There is low possibility of may appear on the coast. FAW introduction to the country. Context: Numerous Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria) Context: FAW has not been reported in Tunisia yet. Egypt has populations pose a threat to agricultural production in Africa, reported the pest, which was able to cross the natural barrier of the Middle East and Asia, and have a negative impact on food the Sahara Desert. Therefore, North African countries are at risk security. The livelihoods of at least one tenth of the world’s of FAW introduction. population may be affected by this voracious insect. Desert Locusts are potentially the most dangerous locust pests, Uganda due to swarms’ ability to fly quickly over long distances. Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) Forecast (October-December 2019): Maize will be in the Likelihood of occurrence: High growing stage. Therefore, there will be a moderate risk of FAW Forecast (October-December 2019): The potential risk of RVF amplification during the forecasting period. occurrence is considered high, given the presence of suitable Context: FAW is present in all districts of Uganda, causing yield environmental conditions for vector amplification, animal losses between 15 and 75 percent. An estimated 450 000 metric movement and informal marketing of infected animals. tonnes of maize, equivalent to US$ 192 million, was lost during Context: During the past three months above-average and the first cropping season of 2017, directly affecting 3.6 million heavy rainfall and flash floods occurred in the region particularly people (9 percent of the population). during the end of August and early September as well as in early October 2019. The precipitation forecasts predict above-average rains for the coming period (October-December 2019) for Chad, Central African Republic, southern Sudan and the whole eastern Africa region. In early October 2019, media reported suspected cases of RVF in humans and animals in Red Sea state (north-eastern Sudan) and cases of hemorrhagic fever in humans in Kassala (eastern Sudan) and North Darfur states (western Sudan). Chad, Kenya, the Sudan, South Sudan and Central African Republic could be considered at high risk of RVF occurrence. RVF is a viral zoonosis that primarily affects animals but also has the capacity to infect humans, causing significant economic losses due to death and abortion of RVF-infected livestock.

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Uganda Threat category: Forest pests and diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Blue gum chalcid Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): Blue gum chalcid is likely to Forecast (October-December 2019): The potential risk of RVF spread in eucalyptus nurseries and plantations. occurrence is considered moderate, given the presence of Context: The Blue gum chalcid insect currently causes severe suitable environmental conditions for vector amplification, damage in eucalyptus nurseries, woodlots and plantations. animal movement and informal marketing of infected animals. Management options for the pest are being provided to farmers. Context: During the past three months above-average and heavy rainfall and flash floods occurred in the region particularly United Republic of Tanzania during the end of August and early September as well as in Threat category: Plant pests and diseases early October. The precipitation forecasts predict above-average rains for the coming period (October-December 2019) for Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Chad, Central African Republic, southern Sudan and the whole Likelihood of occurrence: High eastern Africa region. Northern Uganda could be considered Forecast (October-December 2019): Maize will be in the at moderate risk of RVF due to the predicted suitability for RVF growing stage. Therefore, there will be a high risk of FAW vector amplification as well as animal movement of potential amplification during the forecasting period. infected animals. RVF is a viral zoonosis that primarily affects FAW invades the United Republic of Tanzania in 2017. animals but also has the capacity to infect humans, causing Context: By the beginning of 2018, FAW had been reported in Rukwa, significant economic losses due to death and abortion of Kagera, Pwani, Geita, Simiyu, Mwanza, Morogoro, Kilimanjaro RVF-infected livestock. and Njombe regions.

Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat category: Locusts Threat name: Cassava mosaic disease (CMD) Threat name: Red Locust Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): Spread of Cassava mosaic Forecast (October-December 2019): Ongoing vegetation disease (CMD) is likely. burning will further concentrate existing adult groups and Context: The disease is already affecting cassava production swarms, which, if not controlled, are likely to escape breeding in the country. CMD is considered one of the most damaging areas and invade nearby farms. diseases of cassava in Africa. It is caused by a virus that causes Context: Red Locust plagues pose a major threat to agriculture chlorosis and distortions of the leaves, resulting in yield in southern Africa. Failure to control locust outbreaks during reductions. It is transmitted by infected cuttings and whiteflies. the early stages of development can result in highly mobile swarms, which invade agricultural areas and can cause major Threat category: Plant pests and diseases crop damage. Threat name: Cassava brown streak disease (CBSD) Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): Spread of CBSD is likely. Context: The disease is already present in the country. The disease can cause brownish rots in tubers, rendering them inedible, which leads to a severe loss of economic value. Farmers may be unaware that cassava crops are infected until they harvest and see the tuber lesions, as leaves may appear asymptomatic. The virus is transmitted through infected cuttings and whiteflies. Use of virus-free planting materials and the adoption of integrated management is essential for control.

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United Republic of Tanzania Threat category: Aquatic diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Epizootic ulcerative syndrome (EUS) Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) Likelihood of occurrence: Low Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): EUS is likely to occur in Forecast (October-December 2019): The potential risk of RVF the United Republic of Tanzania due to the confirmed presence occurrence is considered moderate, given the presence of of the disease in the neighbouring Democratic Republic of the suitable environmental conditions for vector amplification, Congo and Zambia. animal movement and informal marketing of infected animals. Context: Water temperatures in October–December 2019 Context: During the past three months above-average and will range from 24°C to 29°C, which are partially suitable for heavy rainfall and flash floods occurred in the region particularly the development of the oomycete fungus responsible for the during the end of August and early September as well as in disease. early October. The precipitation forecasts predict above-average rains for the coming period (October-December 2019) for Chad, Forest pests and diseases Central African Republic, southern Sudan and the whole eastern Threat category: Africa region. Northern United Republic of Tanzania could Threat name: Blue gum chalcid be considered at moderate risk of RVF due to the predicted Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate suitability for RVF vector amplification as well as animal Forecast (October-December 2019): Blue gum chalcid is likely to movement of potential infected animals. RVF is a viral zoonosis spread in eucalyptus nurseries and plantations. that primarily affects animals but also has the capacity to infect humans, causing significant economic losses due to death and Context: Damage due to Blue gum chalcid continues in abortion of RVF-infected livestock. eucalyptus nurseries, woodlots and plantations. Zambia Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Cassava brown streak disease (CBSD) Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): Spread of CBSD is likely. Forecast (October-December 2019): Maize will be in the Context: The disease is already present in the country. growing stage at the end of the forecasting period. Therefore, The disease can cause brownish rots in tubers, rendering there will be a moderate risk of FAW amplification. them inedible, which leads to a severe loss of economic value. In November and early December 2016, Zambia Farmers may be unaware that cassava crops are infected until Context: experienced an outbreak of FAW that affected districts in almost they harvest and see the tuber lesions, as leaves may appear all provinces. Once the pest was identified, the President of asymptomatic. The virus is transmitted through infected cuttings the Republic of Zambia declared the outbreak to be a national and whiteflies. Use of virus-free planting materials and the disaster. adoption of integrated management is essential for control.

Threat category: Locusts Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Red Locust Threat name: Cassava mosaic disease (CMD) Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): Ongoing vegetation Forecast (October-December 2019): Spread of Cassava mosaic burning will contribute to adult grouping and swarm formation disease (CMD) is likely. on unburnt grass patches. Context: The disease is already affecting cassava production Red Locust plagues pose a major threat to agriculture in the country. CMD is considered one of the most damaging Context: in southern Africa. Failure to control locust outbreaks during diseases of cassava in Africa. It is caused by a virus that causes the early stages of development can result in highly mobile chlorosis and distortions of the leaves, resulting in yield swarms, which invade agricultural areas and can cause major reductions. It is transmitted by infected cuttings and whiteflies. crop damage.

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Zambia Threat category: Aquatic diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Tilapia lake virus (TiLV) Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) Likelihood of occurrence: Low Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): TiLV has not been reported. Forecast (October-December 2019): The further spread of However, it may be introduced and spread through live Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur movements of infected hosts. within the country. Context: TiLV occurs when the water temperature is between Context: FMD, serotype O outbreaks have occurred in Zambia 22°C and 32°C, and it has been observed in farms with since March 2018. The last FMD, serotype O outbreak was large-sized fish and high stocking density. Where unexplained reported in Zambia in April 2019. These events are of concern mortalities of tilapia occur, appropriate diagnostic tests should because the disease may spread into the southern African be done. This is particularly necessary when clinical signs similar region, which has never been affected by this particular serotype to those reported for TiLV and permissive temperatures are before. FMD is a highly contagious disease among cattle, present. buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp drop in milk and meat production, in addition to mortality in young animals. It is Threat category: Aquatic diseases the most disruptive animal disease for livestock trade. Threat name: Epizootic ulcerative syndrome (EUS) Likelihood of occurrence: Low Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Forecast (October-December 2019): Further spread of EUS to Threat name: Peste des petits ruminants(PPR) other parts of the country is possible, although unlikely, through Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate heavy rainfall, flooding, poor biosecurity, and movement of Forecast (October-December 2019): Peste des petits ruminants infected fish or birds. (PPR) outbreaks are likely to re-emerge through possible Context: Water temperatures during the reporting period will introduction from neighbouring countries. range from 18°C to 25°C, which are optimal for the development Context: The last antibody PPR detection in the country of the oomycete fungus responsible for the disease. occurred in December 2017. PPR outbreaks continue to occur in the neighbouring United Republic of Tanzania and Democratic Threat category: Forest pests and diseases Republic of Congo, which are considered endemic for the disease. PPR is a highly contagious disease affecting sheep and Threat name: Blue gum chalcid goats. It is caused by a morbillivirus and is considered to be one Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate of the most damaging livestock diseases in Africa. Forecast (October-December 2019): Spread of the Blue gum chalcid insect pest is likely to continue to occur in eucalyptus Threat category: Plant pests and diseases nurseries and plantations. Threat name: Cassava mosaic disease (CMD) Context: Zambia has initiated pest management activities based on silvicultural practices, breeding programmes and quarantine Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate measures to reduce the insect populations. Introduction Forecast (October-December 2019): Spread of CMD and of biological control agents to reduce the Blue gum chalcid Cassava Brown streak virus is possible. population is in progress. Context: CMD poses a major challenge to cassava production in the country. CMD is considered one of the most damaging Threat category: Forest pests and diseases diseases of cassava in Africa. It is caused by a virus that causes chlorosis and distortions of the leaves, reducing yields. Threat name: Red gum lerp psyllid In addition, Cassava brown streak virus has been detected Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate recently and may escalate. Both viruses are transmitted by Forecast (October-December 2019): Spread of Red gum lerp infected cuttings and whiteflies. Use of virus free planting psyllid is likely to continue in eucalyptus plantations. materials in sowing is critical. Context: Pest management activities based on silvicultural practices are in progress.

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Zimbabwe Threat category: Forest pests and diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Blue gum chalcid Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): Spread of Blue gum Forecast (October-December 2019): Foot-and-mouth disease, chalcid is likely to occur in eucalyptus nurseries, woodlots and serotype O, is likely to occur in the country through introduction plantations. from a neighbouring country. Context: Pest management activities based on the application Context: FMD, serotype O outbreaks have occurred in Zambia of biological control agents are in progress to reduce Blue gum since March 2018. The last FMD, serotype O outbreak was chalcid populations. reported in Zambia in April 2019. These events are of concern because the disease may spread into the southern African Threat category: Forest pests and diseases region, which has never been affected by this particular serotype before. FMD is a highly contagious disease among cattle, Threat name: Bronze bug buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp drop in milk and Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate meat production, in addition to mortality in young animals. It is Forecast (October-December 2019): Bronze bug spread is likely the most disruptive animal disease for livestock trade. to continue to occur in eucalyptus plantations. Context: Pest management activities are in progress. Threat category: Aquatic diseases Threat name: Tilapia lake virus (TiLV) Threat category: Forest pests and diseases Likelihood of occurrence: Low Threat name: Red gum lerp psyllid Forecast (October-December 2019): TiLV has not been reported. Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate However, it may be introduced and spread through live Spread of Red gum lerp movements of infected hosts. Forecast (October-December 2019): psyllid is likely to occur in eucalyptus plantations. Context: TiLV occurs when the water temperature is between Pest management activities based on silvicultural 22°C and 32°C, and it has been observed in farms with Context: practices are in progress. large-sized fish and high stocking density. Where unexplained mortalities of tilapia occur, appropriate diagnostic tests should be done. This is particularly necessary when clinical signs similar to those reported for TiLV and permissive temperatures are present.

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AMERICAS

Colombia Mexico

Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Banana fusarium wilt disease Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): Spread of Fusarium wilt Forecast (October-December 2019): H7N3 High pathogenic disease on banana is possible. avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks are expected to increase Context: The most recent race of the causal fungus of the towards December. disease (Tropical Race 4) has been present in the northern Context: H7N3 HPAI has been reported sporadically in Mexico region of La Guajira and other locations in the north of the since 2012. In 2019, since April, 26 H7N3 HPAI outbreaks have country in August 2019; these were the first reports in the been reported, affecting domestic birds in the central-southern continent. Banana fusarium wilt disease is soilborne and cannot part of the country. Due to the approaching cold season, be eradicated once it becomes established in the soil. The additional outbreaks are likely to be reported. HPAI is a highly disease attacks banana plants of all ages, initially appearing with contagious disease causing high mortality in domestic birds. a yellowing of the leaves, then causing wilting and plant death. It generally results in severe production losses, loss of export Infected planting materials, water and movement of infested markets and drastic disease control measures that include soil particles with shoes, tools and vehicles play a major role in culling of infected and in-contact birds. This has an impact on spread. The disease can remain viable in soil for decades and food security and trade. Some AI viruses can affect humans. containment and management are challenging. Thus, prevention of spread is crucial. Mexico

Guatemala Threat category: Aquatic diseases Threat name: Tilapia lake virus (TiLV) Threat category: Forest pests and diseases Likelihood of occurrence: Low Threat name: Bark beetles Forecast (October-December 2019): TiLV outbreaks were first Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate observed in July 2018. The disease may spread through live Forecast (October-December 2019): Bark beetle damage in pine movements of infected hosts. plantations is likely to continue. Context: TiLV occurs when the water temperature is between Context: Silvicultural practices to reduce the pest populations 22°C and 32°C; it has also been observed in farms with large- are in progress. Training of foresters on prevention and sized fish and a high stocking density. TiLV is already present in management practices is in progress. Mexico. It was first observed in July 2018.

Honduras Nicaragua

Threat category: Forest pests and diseases Threat category: Forest pests and diseases Threat name: Bark beetles Threat name: Bark beetles Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Likelihood of occurrence: High Forecast (October-December 2019): Bark beetle outbreaks Forecast (October-December 2019): It is highly likely that Bark causing heavy losses in pine plantations are likely to occur, and beetle will continue to cause damage in pine plantations. will continue to be reported. Context: Pest management activities based on silvicultural Context: Bark beetles affect approximately 500 000 ha of conifer practices are in progress. forests. Training of foresters on prevention and management practices is in progress.

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Peru United States of America

Threat category: Aquatic diseases Threat category: Aquatic diseases Threat name: Tilapia lake virus (TiLV) Threat name: Tilapia lake virus (TiLV) Likelihood of occurrence: Low Likelihood of occurrence: Low Forecast (October-December 2019): TiLV is likely to occur. Forecast (October-December 2019): All clinically ill fish were Context: TiLV occurs when the water temperature is between depopulated. Exposed fish in the same tanks were either 22°C and 32 °C; it has also been observed in farms with depopulated or sent to terminal market. large-sized fish and a high stocking density. TiLV is already Context: TiLV occurs when the water temperature is between present in the country. It was first observed in November 2017. 22°C and 32 °C; it has also been observed in farms with A second outbreak was reported in December 2017. large-sized fish and a high stocking density. TiLV is already present in the country. It was first observed in November 2018.

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ASIA

Bangladesh Cambodia

Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Likelihood of occurrence: Low Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): There will be a low risk Forecast (October-December 2019): There will be a moderate of FAW amplification during the forecasting period due to the risk of FAW amplification during the forecasting period. absence of the main FAW hosts. Context: As of 11 June, 11 142 ha of corn crop have been Context: The Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council destroyed (2 544 ha in Pailin province, 3 033 ha in Battambang, confirmed FAW infestations in the Bogura and Chuadanga 4 715 ha in Banteay Meanchey and 850 ha in Tboung Khmum districts on maize and cabbage on December 2018. province). FAW infestations have been detected in the maize fields of 36 subdistricts of 19 districts. As per the report of the Animal and zoonotic diseases Department of Agricultural Extension, the severely infested Threat category: districts are: Rajshahi, Chapai Nawabgonj, Naogaon, Bogra, Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Pabna, Sirajgonj, Rangpur, Gaibandha, Kurigram, Lalmonirhat, Likelihood of occurrence: High Nilphamari, Jinidaha, Chuadanga, Jessore, Khulna, Sulhet, Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) Barishal, and Manikgonj. outbreaks are very likely to continue to occur. Context: ASF was reported for the first time in Asia in China, in Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases domestic pigs, in August 2018, and then in Viet Nam in February Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) 2019. ASF was first reported in domestic swine in Cambodia on 3 April 2019. As of 20 September 2019, 13 outbreaks have Likelihood of occurrence: Low been reported in five of the country’s 25 provinces. The first Forecast (October-December 2019): H5N1 Highly pathogenic ASF outbreaks also occurred in the Lao People’s Democratic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks are expected to remain at low Republic, on 20 June 2019, and Myanmar, on 14 August 2019. levels. Because of the value-chain links of swine and their products Context: The last events of H5N1 HPAI in Bangladesh occurred between the countries in the region (for example through in May 2018 in domestic birds, and in December 2018 in wild associated routes, or Transport Associated Routes (TARs), illegal crows. HPAI is a highly contagious disease causing high mortality imports of food, and movement of people), there is a high risk of in domestic birds. It generally results in severe production ASF spread towards East and Southeast Asia. ASF is a contagious losses, loss of export markets and drastic disease control viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, that causes measures that include culling of infected and in-contact birds. high mortality. No effective treatment or vaccine is currently This has an impact on food security and trade. Some AI viruses available. can affect humans. Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) Threat name: Lumpy skin disease (LSD) Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Likelihood of occurrence: High Forecast (October-December 2019): H5 Highly pathogenic avian Forecast (October-December 2019): Lumpy skin disease (LSD) influenza (HPAI) outbreaks are expected to increase towards outbreaks are likely to occur. December. Context: In September 2019, LSD was reported for the first time Context: In March 2019, H5N6 HPAI was first observed in ever in Bangladesh, in Chittagong district. This was also the first Cambodia. In 2018, seven outbreaks of H5N1 HPAI were time the disease was reported in a southern Asian country. reported in six different provinces; the latest occurred in LSD is a severe disease, transmitted by vectors, that affects August 2018. HPAI is a highly contagious disease causing mainly cattle, causing important meat and milk production high mortality in domestic birds. It generally results in severe losses. production losses, loss of export markets and drastic disease control measures that include culling of infected and in-contact birds. This has an impact on food security and trade. Some AI viruses can affect humans.

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China Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Likelihood of occurrence: Low Forecast (October-December 2019): H5 and H7 HPAI and LPAI Forecast (October-December 2019): Infestations are expected virus outbreaks in poultry, as well as cases in humans (although to decline in northern areas as temperatures become cold and sporadic), are expected to increase towards December. FAW adults migrate southwards to warmer tropical areas. Context: Several serotypes of HPAI and LPAI viruses are Context: FAW was first reported in China in January 2019. circulating and being detected in China. HPAI is a highly It spread from Yunnan Province to the north. FAW has been contagious disease causing high mortality in domestic birds. found on over 10 000 km2 of farmland across 25 provinces It generally results in severe production losses, loss of export in China. The official reports stated that FAW has affected markets and drastic disease control measures that include over 15 million mu (1 million ha). It has not been detected culling of infected and in-contact birds. This has an impact on in the northeastern territories. To date, the corn area in the food security and trade. Some AI viruses can affect humans. northeastern part of the country has not experienced any losses.

Threat category: Aquatic diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Tilapia lake virus (TiLV) Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Likelihood of occurrence: Low Likelihood of occurrence: High Forecast (October-December 2019): TiLV has not been reported Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) in China. However, it may be introduced and spread through live outbreaks are very likely to continue to occur. movements of infected hosts. Context: ASF was reported for the first time in Asia in China, Context: Active surveillance and mitigation measures are in in domestic pigs, in August 2018. As of 20 September 2019, place. TiLV occurs when the water temperature is between 22°C 157 ASF outbreaks have been reported in 32 of the country’s and 32 °C; it has also been observed in farms with large-sized 34 provinces/administrative divisions. In addition, in early fish and a high stocking density. Where unexplained mortalities November 2018, the disease was also detected in wild boar in of tilapia occur, appropriate diagnostic tests should be done. Jilin province, close to the borders with the Democratic People’s This is particularly important when clinical signs similar to those Republic of Korea, and in Heilongjiang province. This enhances reported for TiLV and permissive temperatures are present. the likelihood of spread of ASF to neighbouring countries due to wild boar movement, in addition to the risks posed by illegal Democratic People’s Republic of Korea imports of possibly contaminated pork products from China. An African Swine Fever Contingency Plan and Emergency Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Response Level II is under implementation in the country. Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Further spread of the disease within the region would have Likelihood of occurrence: Low devastating consequences for animal health, food safety, and Forecast (October-December 2019): Any unreported food security. ASF is a contagious viral disease of swine, both infestations will decline as temperatures become cold. domestic and wild, that causes high mortality. No effective treatment or vaccine is currently available. Context: FAW has not been officially reported in the country yet.

Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Peste des petits ruminants(PPR) Likelihood of occurrence: Low Forecast (October-December 2019): Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) outbreaks are unlikely to continue to occur in the country. Context: PPR is reported yearly in China. In particular, between January and June 2018, the disease occurred in the northeastern and eastern provinces of the country. PPR is a highly contagious disease affecting sheep and goats. It is caused by a morbillivirus and is considered to be one of the most damaging livestock diseases in Asia.

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Democratic People’s Republic of Korea Threat category: Forest pests and diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Boxwood moth Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Likelihood of occurrence: Low Likelihood of occurrence: High Forecast (October-December 2019): Boxwood moth Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) (Cydalima perspectalis) will have limited spread due to winter outbreaks are very likely to continue to occur. temperatures. Context: ASF was reported for the first time in Asia in China, in Context: As part of an Integrated Pest Management programme, domestic pigs, in August 2018. The disease was first reported the use of biopesticide Bacillus thuringiensis var. kurstaki (BtK) in domestic swine in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and pheromone trapping is in progress to protect the native (DPRK) on 23 May 2019, in Chagang-Do province. Since then, boxwood species. no other ASF events were reported in the country. Because of the value-chain links of swine and their products between the Japan countries in the region (for example, through associated routes, Threat category: Plant pests and diseases or TARs, illegal imports of food, and movement of people), there is a high risk of further ASF spread in East and Southeast Asia, Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) and in particular to the Republic of Korea. ASF is a contagious Likelihood of occurrence: Low viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, that causes Forecast (October-December 2019): Infestations will decline as high mortality. No effective treatment or vaccine is currently temperatures become cold. available. Context: In July 2019, FAW larvae were found on for the Gaza Strip first time on a field in southwestern Japan (Minamikyushu, Kagoshima). Later, larvae were found on 53 fields growing field Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases corn and sweetcorn in the prefecture. Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Forecast (October-December 2019): Foot-and-mouth disease Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur. Likelihood of occurrence: High Context: FMD, serotype O, was last reported in the region in Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) is August 2019, in Israel. FMD is a highly contagious disease among very likely to occur, through possible introduction from affected cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp drop in countries in the region. milk and meat production, in addition to mortality in young Context: ASF was reported for the first time in Asia in China, in animals. It is the most disruptive animal disease for livestock domestic pigs, in August 2018. On 15 January 2019, the disease trade. was first reported in neighbouring Mongolia; on 19 February Georgia in Viet Nam; on 22 March in Cambodia; on 20 June, in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic; on 14 August in Myanmar; on Threat category: Forest pests and diseases 9 September, in the Philippines; and on 17 September, in the Threat name: Boxwood blight Republic of Korea. Because of the value-chain links of swine and their products between the countries in the region (for Likelihood of occurrence: Low example through associated routes, or Transport Associated Forecast (October-December 2019): Boxwood blight (caused Routes (TARs), illegal imports of food, and movement of by pathogen Calonectria pseudonaviculata) will continue to people), there is a high risk of spread of the disease towards be present, although its spread will be limited due to winter East and Southeast Asia. Further spread of ASF within the region temperatures and lack of rain. would have devastating consequences for animal health, food Context: Monitoring of the disease spread is in progress. safety and food security, especially in those countries where biosecurity in pig farming is low and compensation to farmers for depopulation of pigs is uncertain. ASF is a contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, that causes high mortality. No effective treatment or vaccine is currently available.

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Jordan Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): H5N1 Highly pathogenic Forecast (October-December 2019): Foot-and-mouth disease avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks are expected to increase (FMD), serotype O, outbreaks are likely to continue to occur. towards December. Context: FMD, serotype O, was last reported in the region in Context: The last recorded event of H5N1 HPAI in wild crows August 2019, in Israel. FMD is a highly contagious disease among occurred in March 2019. Since November 2018, 21 H5N1 HPAI cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp drop in outbreaks have been reported in wild and domestic birds. milk and meat production, in addition to mortality in young HPAI is a highly contagious disease causing high mortality in animals. It is the most disruptive animal disease for livestock domestic birds. It generally results in severe production losses, trade. loss of export markets and drastic disease control measures that include culling of infected and in-contact birds. This has an India impact on food security and trade. Some AI viruses can affect humans. Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Likelihood of occurrence: Low Threat name: Lumpy skin disease (LSD) Forecast (October-December 2019): There will be a low risk of FAW amplification during the forecasting period on maize (Rabi) Likelihood of occurrence: High and sorghum (Rabi). Forecast (October-December 2019): Lumpy skin disease (LSD) Context: FAW was first detected in the Indian subcontinent in outbreaks are likely to occur through possible introduction from mid-May 2018, in maize fields in Karnataka. On 30 July 2018, the affected countries in the region. Indian Council of Agricultural Research issued a warning that the Context: In September 2019, LSD was reported for the first time pest, Spodoptera frugiperda, had reached the subcontinent. ever in Bangladesh; this was also the first time the disease was To date, it has been detected in approximately 70 percent of reported in a southern Asian country. The disease may spread maize crops in Chikkaballapur in the southern Karnataka state. In India or other neighbouring countries through movement of Reports suggest that it has also spread to Tamil Nadu and infected animals or trade. LSD is a severe disease, transmitted by Telangana. vectors, that affects mainly cattle, causing important meat and milk production losses. Threat category: Locusts Threat name: Desert Locust Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Likelihood of occurrence: Low Threat name: Banana fusarium wilt disease Forecast (October-December 2019): Summer breeding will end Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate in Rajasthan, where undetected and uncontrolled locusts may Forecast (October-December 2019): Spread of Fusarium wilt form groups and small swarms that will move westwards. disease on banana is likely. Context: Numerous Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria) Context: The most recent race of fungus causing the Banana populations pose a threat to agricultural production in Africa, fusarium wilt disease (Tropical Race 4) was recently reported the Middle East and Asia, and have a negative impact on food in the country and can spread further. Banana fusarium wilt security. The livelihoods of at least one tenth of the world’s disease is soilborne and cannot be eradicated once it becomes population may be affected by this voracious insect. Desert established in the soil. The disease attacks banana plants of all Locusts are potentially the most dangerous locust pests, due to ages, initially appearing with a yellowing of the leaves, then swarms’ ability to fly quickly over long distances. causing wilting and plant death. Infected planting materials, water and movement of infested soil particles with shoes, tools and vehicles play a major role in spread. The disease can remain viable in soil for decades and containment and management are challenging. Thus, prevention of spread is crucial.

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Indonesia Israel

Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) Likelihood of occurrence: Low Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): There will be a low risk of Forecast (October-December 2019): Foot-and-mouth disease FAW amplification and spread during the forecasting period. (FMD), serotype O, outbreaks are likely to continue to occur. Context: FAW was first detected in Indonesia in West Sumatra, Context: FMD, serotype O, outbreaks occur sporadically in in March 2019. Within four months, the pest had already spread the country. FMD was last reported in the country in August to 12 provinces in Indonesia (Sumatra, Java and some parts of 2019. FMD is a highly contagious disease among cattle, buffalo, Kalimantan). sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp drop in milk and meat production in addition to mortality in young animals. It is the most restrictive animal disease for livestock trade. Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Threat name: Peste des petits ruminants(PPR) Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) is likely to occur through possible introduction from affected Likelihood of occurrence: Low countries in the region. Forecast (October-December 2019): Peste des petits ruminants Context: ASF was reported for the first time in Asia in China, in (PPR) outbreaks are unlikely to continue to occur in the country. domestic pigs, in August 2018. On 15 January 2019, the disease Context: In November 2018, a PPR outbreak occurred in the was first reported in neighbouring Mongolia; on 19 February Northern district, one year after the last reported outbreak. The in Viet Nam; on 22 March in Cambodia; on 20 June, in the Lao disease continued to be reported until July 2019. People’s Democratic Republic; on 14 August in Myanmar; on The country is endemic for the disease; however, vaccination is 9 September, in the Philippines; and on 17 September, in the not compulsory. PPR is a highly contagious disease affecting sheep Republic of Korea. Because of the value-chain links of swine and and goats. It is caused by a morbillivirus and is considered to be their products between the countries in the region (for example one of the most damaging livestock diseases in the Middle East. through associated routes, or TARs, illegal imports of food, and movement of people), there is a high risk of spread of the Iran (Islamic Republic of) disease towards East and Southeast Asia. In Indonesia, the risk is Threat category: Locusts moderate because the swine population is low, given that it is a predominantly Muslim country. Further spread of ASF within the Threat name: Desert Locust region would have devastating consequences for animal health, Likelihood of occurrence: Low food safety and food security, especially in those countries Forecast (October-December 2019): Adult groups and small where biosecurity in pig farming is low and compensation to swarms may arrive in the southeast from the Indo-Pakistan farmers for depopulation of pigs is uncertain. ASF is a contagious border; however, breeding is unlikely until temperatures warm viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, that causes high up in the spring. mortality. No treatment nor vaccine is currently available. Context: Numerous Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria) populations pose a threat to agricultural production in Africa, Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases the Middle East and Asia, and have a negative impact on food Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) security. The livelihoods of at least one tenth of the world’s population may be affected by this voracious insect. Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Desert Locusts are potentially the most dangerous locust pests, Forecast (October-December 2019): H5 Highly pathogenic avian due to swarms’ ability to fly quickly over long distances. influenza (HPAI) outbreaks are expected to increase towards December. Context: The country is considered endemic for H5N1 HPAI. HPAI is a highly contagious disease causing high mortality in domestic birds. It generally results in severe production losses, loss of export markets and drastic disease control measures that include culling of infected and in-contact birds. This has an impact on food security and trade. Some AI viruses can affect humans.

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Iran (Islamic Republic of) Threat category: Forest pests and diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Charcoal disease Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) Likelihood of occurrence: Low Likelihood of occurrence: Low Forecast (October-December 2019): Oak charcoal disease Forecast (October-December 2019): H5 Highly pathogenic avian (pathogen Biscogniauxia mediterranea) will have limited activity influenza (HPAI) outbreaks are expected to remain at low levels. during the forecast period. Context: The last H5N1 and H5N6 HPAI event officially reported Context: The decline of Oak charcoal disease has been reported in the country occurred in January 2018. The H5N8 HPAI virus, since 2012 in the Zagros region of the country. It has a negative which has been spreading globally since November 2016, impact on the livelihoods of nomadic people and watershed following wild bird migratory routes, has been reported in management. Operations to minimize the impact of the charcoal wild and domestic birds in eight governorates in the country. disease and abiotic stresses are in progress. The last reporting of this serotype dates back to April 2019. HPAI is a highly contagious disease causing high mortality in Iraq domestic birds. It generally results in severe production losses, Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases loss of export markets and drastic disease control measures Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) that include culling of infected and in-contact birds. This has an impact on food security and trade. Some AI viruses can affect Likelihood of occurrence: Low humans. Forecast (October-December 2019): H5N8 Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks are expected to remain at low levels. Threat category: Forest pests and diseases Context: H5N8 HPAI, which has been spreading globally since Threat name: Boxwood blight November 2016, following wild bird migratory routes, was Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate last reported in the country in March 2019. HPAI is a highly Forecast (October-December 2019): Boxwood blight will contagious disease causing high mortality in domestic birds. continue to be present, although its spread will be limited due It generally results in severe production losses, loss of export to winter temperatures and lack of rain. markets and drastic disease control measures that include Context: Boxwood blight was first reported in the country in culling of infected and in-contact birds. This has an impact on 2012. Currently, approximately 50 000 ha of boxwood forest are food security and trade. Some AI viruses can affect humans. affected by the disease. Pest management activities in selected areas are in progress. Lao People’s Democratic Republic Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat category: Forest pests and diseases Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Threat name: Boxwood moth Likelihood of occurrence: High Likelihood of occurrence: Low Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) Forecast (October-December 2019): Boxwood moth will outbreaks are very likely to continue to occur. have limited activities during the forecast period due to low Context: ASF was reported for the first time in Asia in China, in temperatures. domestic pigs, in August 2018. It was then reported in Viet Nam Context: The first introduction of boxwood moth was reported in February 2019, and in Cambodia on 3 April 2019. The first ASF in August 2016. Native boxwood forests are newly under threat outbreaks was reported in Lao People’s Democratic Republic by Boxwood moth, which is highly destructive. Early actions such on 20 June 2019 in Salavan province. As of 20 September 2019, as pheromone trapping for monitoring and treatments using the the country as reported a total of 94 outbreaks in 15 of its 18 biopesticide Bacillus thuringiensis var. kurstaki (Btk) are required provinces. Because of the value-chain links of swine and their to reduce further spread. FAO is organizing a visit from Georgia products between the countries in the region (for example to Iran to share experiences on Btk application and pheromone through associated routes, or TARs, illegal imports of food, and trappings. movement of people), there is a high risk of ASF spread towards East and Southeast Asia. ASF is a contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, that causes high mortality. No effective treatment or vaccine is currently available.

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Lebanon Lao People’s Democratic Republic Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat category: Forest pests and diseases Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) Threat name: Dry cone syndrome Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): H5N1 Highly pathogenic Forecast (October-December 2019): Dry cone syndrome is likely avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks are expected to increase to continue causing damage to pine plantations (Pinus pinea). towards December. Context: Heavy yield losses continue to affect rural livelihoods. Yield Context: H5N1 outbreaks have been reported in the country reduction of pine nuts has been reported throughout the country. in the past few years. The last H5N1 HPAI in the country was Silvicultural practices to strengthen the trees are in progress. reported in October 2018. HPAI is a highly contagious disease causing high mortality in domestic birds. It generally results Threat category: Forest pests and diseases in severe production losses, loss of export markets and drastic Threat name: Western conifer seed bug disease control measures that include culling of infected and in-contact birds. This has an impact on food security and trade. Likelihood of occurrence: Low Some AI viruses can affect humans. Forecast (October-December 2019): Western conifer seed bug is likely have limited activities due to the lower temperatures. Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Context: Monitoring of the pest population using traps is in progress. Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Likelihood of occurrence: Low Malaysia Forecast (October-December 2019): There will be a low risk of Threat category: Plant pests and diseases FAW amplification during the forecasting period. Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Context: A survey first found FAW in early 2019 in Sendin Village, Naxaithong District, Vientiane, and an outbreak in Likelihood of occurrence: Low Paklai District, Sayaboury Province. The survey also found FAW Forecast (October-December 2019): There will be a low risk of damage in other areas, such as Vientiane Province, Oudomxay, spread of FAW during the forecasting period on rice crop. Xiengkhouang, Borikhamxay and Savannakhet. The total area of Context: FAW was reported in Malaysia at the beginning of 2019. maize production damaged was estimated at over 3 300 ha.

Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Threat name: Banana fusarium wilt disease Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) Forecast (October-December 2019): Spread of Fusarium wilt is likely to occur through possible introduction from affected disease on banana is likely. countries in the region. Context: The most recent race of fungus causing the Banana Context: ASF was reported for the first time in Asia in China, in fusarium wilt disease (Tropical Race 4) was recently reported domestic pigs, in August 2018. On 15 January 2019, the disease in the country and can spread further. Banana fusarium wilt was first reported in neighbouring Mongolia; on 19 February disease is soilborne and cannot be eradicated once it becomes in Viet Nam; on 22 March in Cambodia; on 20 June, in the Lao established in the soil. The disease attacks banana plants of all People’s Democratic Republic; on 14 August in Myanmar; on ages, initially appearing with a yellowing of the leaves, then 9 September, in the Philippines; and on 17 September, in the causing wilting and plant death. Infected planting materials, Republic of Korea. Because of the value-chain links of swine and water and movement of infested soil particles with shoes, tools their products between the countries in the region (for example and vehicles play a major role in spread. The disease can remain through associated routes, or TARs, illegal imports of food, viable in soil for decades and containment and management are and movement of people), there is a high risk of spread of the challenging. Thus, prevention of spread is crucial. disease towards East and Southeast Asia. In Malaysia, the risk is moderate because the swine population is low, given that it is predominately a Muslim country. Further spread of ASF within the region would have devastating consequences for animal health, food safety and food security, especially in those countries where biosecurity in pig farming is low and compensation to farmers for depopulation of pigs is uncertain. ASF is a contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, that causes high mortality. No treatment or vaccine is currently available.

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Malaysia Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat category: Aquatic diseases Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Threat name: Tilapia lake virus (TiLV) Likelihood of occurrence: High Likelihood of occurrence: Low Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) Forecast (October-December 2019): During the reporting outbreaks are very likely to continue to occur. period, the production cycle of tilapia will be active. Context: ASF was reported for the first time in Asia in China, in Context: TiLV is already present in the country. It was first domestic pigs, in August 2018. On 14 August 2019, ASF was first observed in June 2017 and additional outbreaks were reported reported in Myanmar. Since then, and as of 20 September 2019, in July/October 2017 and July 2018. Monitoring and active a total of three ASF outbreaks were reported in Shan State only. surveillance systems have been established. TiLV occurs when Because of the value-chain links of swine and their products the water temperature is between 22°C and 32°C; it has also between the countries in the region (for example through been observed in farms with large-sized fish and a high stocking associated routes, or TARs, illegal imports of food, and movement density. of people), there is a high risk of spread of the disease towards East and Southeast Asia. Further spread of ASF within the region would Mongolia have devastating consequences for animal health, food safety and food security, especially in those countries where biosecurity in Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases pig farming is low and compensation to farmers for depopulation Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) of pigs is uncertain. ASF is a contagious viral disease of swine, Likelihood of occurrence: High both domestic and wild, that causes high mortality. No effective Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) treatment or vaccine is currently available. outbreaks are very likely to continue to occur. Context: In Asia, ASF was first reported in China, in domestic Threat category: Plant pests and diseases pigs, in August 2018. The affected area included the autonomous Threat name: Banana fusarium wilt disease region of Inner Mongolia in China, which borders with Mongolia. Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate In January 2019, the first outbreaks of ASF in Mongolia were reported. Since then, 11 ASF outbreaks were confirmed in seven Forecast (October-December 2019): Spread of Fusarium wilt out of the country’s 21 regions. There is no information on the disease on banana is likely. surveillance of wild boar, while the extensive presence of wild Context: The most recent race of fungus causing the Banana boars in infected areas is well known. It is questionable whether fusarium wilt disease (Tropical Race 4) was recently reported the virus is present in wild boar populations in the country. in the country and can spread further. Banana fusarium wilt On 27 March 2019, country authorities declared that the ASF disease is soilborne and cannot be eradicated once it becomes epidemic in the country had come to an end. ASF is a contagious established in the soil. The disease attacks banana plants of all viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, that causes high ages, initially appearing with a yellowing of the leaves, then mortality. No effective treatment or vaccine is currently available. causing wilting and plant death. Infected planting materials, water and movement of infested soil particles with shoes, tools Myanmar and vehicles play a major role in spread. The disease can remain viable in soil for decades and containment and management are Threat category: Plant pests and diseases challenging. Thus, prevention of spread is crucial. Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Nepal Forecast (October-December 2019): There will be a moderate Threat category: Plant pests and diseases risk of FAW amplification during the forecasting period on the Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) second season of maize and wheat. Likelihood of occurrence: Low Context: FAW has invaded maize fields in the country since the first week of January 2019, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Forecast (October-December 2019): There will be a low risk of Livestock and Irrigation. FAW, confirmed in Ayeyarwady region, FAW amplification during the forecasting period. then spread to nine states/regions within a short period of the Context: FAW has recently been reported in the country. same year. Approximately 4 046 ha (10 000 acres) have been It is thought that the pest first entered between April and affected in Ayeyarwady. May 2019. FAW has destroyed maize crops at Sunkoshi Rural Municipality in Sindhuli.

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Pakistan Nepal Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat category: Locusts Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) Threat name: Desert Locust Likelihood of occurrence: Low Likelihood of occurrence: High Forecast (October-December 2019): H5N1 Highly pathogenic Forecast (October-December 2019): Summer breeding will end avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks are expected to remain at low and any undetected and uncontrolled locusts will form groups levels. and small swarms that will move west to Baluchistan. This will be supplemented by similar populations from India. However, Context: H5N1 HPAI was last reported in the country in breeding will not occur until temperatures warm up in the September 2019 in domestic birds and, for the first time, in spring. a human. HPAI is a highly contagious disease causing high mortality in domestic birds. It generally results in severe Context: Numerous Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria) production losses, loss of export markets and drastic disease populations pose a threat to agricultural production in Africa, control measures that include culling of infected and in-contact the Middle East and Asia, and have a negative impact on food birds. This has an impact on food security and trade. Some AI security. The livelihoods of at least one tenth of the world’s viruses can affect humans. population may be affected by this voracious insect. Desert Locusts are potentially the most dangerous locust pests, Oman due to swarms’ ability to fly quickly over long distances.

Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Threat name: Banana fusarium wilt disease Likelihood of occurrence: High Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): FAW is likely to be introduced to the country. Forecast (October-December 2019): Spread of Fusarium wilt disease on banana is likely. Context: FAW has not been reported in Oman yet. The pest has been reported in Yemen since 2018, and is widely distributed. Context: A new race of the fungus causing the disease The current crisis in Yemen is weakening official controls, and (Tropical Race 4) has been reported in one location in the the pest is likely to be introduced into Yemen’s neighbouring country and can spread further. Banana fusarium wilt disease is countries such as Oman and Saudi Arabia, given the pest’s high soilborne and cannot be eradicated once it becomes established capabilities of flying. in the soil. The disease attacks banana plants of all ages, initially appearing with a yellowing of the leaves, then causing

wilting and plant death. Infected planting materials, water Threat category: Locusts and movement of infested soil particles with shoes, tools and Threat name: Desert Locust vehicles play a major role in spread. The disease can remain Likelihood of occurrence: Low viable in soil for decades and containment and management are challenging. Thus, prevention of spread is crucial. Forecast (October-December 2019): There is a very low risk of a few small swarms arriving from the India/Pakistan border. Philippines Context: Numerous Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria) populations pose a threat to agricultural production in Africa, Threat category: Plant pests and diseases the Middle East and Asia, and have a negative impact on food Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) security. The livelihoods of at least one tenth of the world’s Likelihood of occurrence: Low population may be affected by this voracious insect. Desert Forecast (October-December 2019): There will be a low risk of Locusts are potentially the most dangerous locust pests, due to FAW amplification on maize (second season). swarms’ ability to fly quickly over long distances. Context: By June 2019, the local government of Mabinay in Negros Oriental declared that FAW had attacked 28 of the mountainous town’s 32 barangays.

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Philippines Threat category: Locusts Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Desert Locust Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Likelihood of occurrence: High Likelihood of occurrence: High Forecast (October-December 2019): Breeding will continue on Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) the southern Red Sea coast and extend northwards, causing is likely to occur through possible introduction from affected locusts to form groups and perhaps small bands and swarms. countries in the region. This could be supplemented by additional locusts coming from Yemen. Context: ASF was reported for the first time in Asia in China, in domestic pigs, in August 2018. On 9 September, it was reported Context: Numerous Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria) for the first time in the Philippines. In the Philippines, as of populations pose a threat to agricultural production in Africa, 20 September 2019, seven ASF outbreaks have been reported the Middle East and Asia, and have a negative impact on food in Rizal province only. Because of the value-chain links of swine security. The livelihoods of at least one tenth of the world’s and their products between the countries in the region population may be affected by this voracious insect. Desert (for example through associated routes, or TARs, illegal imports Locusts are potentially the most dangerous locust pests, due to of food, and movement of people), there is a high risk of spread swarms’ ability to fly quickly over long distances. of the disease towards East and Southeast Asia. Further spread of ASF within the region would have devastating consequences Singapore for animal health, food safety and food security, especially in Threat category: Plant pests and diseases those countries where biosecurity in pig farming is low and Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) compensation to farmers for depopulation of pigs is uncertain. ASF is a contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate wild, that causes high mortality. No effective treatment nor Forecast (October-December 2019): There will be a high risk of vaccine is currently available. FAW introduction from Thailand and Viet Nam. Context: FAW has not been reported in the country yet. Threat category: Aquatic diseases Threat name: Tilapia lake virus (TiLV) Sri Lanka Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Forecast (October-December 2019): During the forecasting Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) period, the production cycle of tilapia will be active. Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Context: TiLV occurs when the water temperature is between Forecast (October-December 2019): There will be a moderate 22°C and 32°C; it has also been observed in farms with risk of FAW amplification during the forecasting period on maize large-sized fish and a high stocking density. TiLV is already and rice (Main Maha). present in the country. It was first observed in May 2017. A second outbreak was reported in July 2019. Monitoring and Context: FAW has infested maize mainly in Anuradhapura, active surveillance systems have been established. Monaragala and Ampara districts, and the pest has been detected in almost all districts in the country, in farm patches. Saudi Arabia The total maize-cultivated land extent infected by FAW in these three districts are of 61 010 ha and 34 856 ha. Further, FAW has Threat category: Plant pests and diseases been reported to have spread to crops such as rice, tomato, Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) millet, green gram and some grass varieties. Likelihood of occurrence: High Of 82 000 ha cultivated in Sri Lanka, 43 037 ha has been reported to be infected by FAW. The total estimated crop loss in Forecast (October-December 2019): FAW is likely to be the country is of 10–25 percent. introduced to the country. Context: FAW has not been reported in Saudi Arabia yet. The pest has been reported in Yemen since 2018, and is widely distributed. The current crisis in Yemen is weakening official controls, and the pest is likely to be introduced into Yemen’s neighbouring countries such as Oman and Saudi Arabia, given the pest’s high capabilities of flying.

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Thailand Timor-Leste

Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Likelihood of occurrence: Low Likelihood of occurrence: High Forecast (October-December 2019): There will be a low risk of Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) FAW amplification during the forecasting period. outbreaks are very likely to continue to occur. Context: The Department of Agriculture of Thailand has received Context: After ASF was reported for the first time in Asia in a report that confirms FAW presence in samples collected China, in August 2018, on 27 September 2019 ASF was reported in December 2018 from maize plantations in subdistricts for the first time in Timor-Leste. Because of the value-chain links of Kanchanaburi and Tak Provinces, along the border with of swine and their products between the countries in the region Myanmar. FAW has been detected in more than 50 of Thailand’s (for example, through associated routes, or TARs, illegal imports 76 provinces, and is concentrated in six western provinces with of food, and movement of people), there is a high risk of spread large maize areas. of the disease towards East and Southeast Asia. Further spread of ASF within the region would have devastating consequences for animal health, food safety and food security, especially in Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases those countries where biosecurity in pig farming is low and Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) compensation to farmers for depopulation of pigs is uncertain. Likelihood of occurrence: High ASF is a contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) is wild, that causes high mortality. No effective treatment nor very likely to occur through possible introduction from affected vaccine is currently available. countries in the region. Turkey Context: ASF was reported for the first time in Asia in China, in domestic pigs, in August 2018. On 15 January 2019, the disease Threat category: Forest pests and diseases was first reported in neighbouring Mongolia; on 19 February Threat name: Chestnut gall wasp in Viet Nam; on 22 March in Cambodia; on 20 June, in the Lao Likelihood of occurrence: Low People's Democratic Republic; on 14 August in Myanmar; on 9 September, in the Philippines; and on 17 September, in the Forecast (October-December 2019): The Chestnut gall wasp Republic of Korea. Because of the value-chain links of swine and population will have lesser activity in chestnut trees due to pest their products between the countries in the region (for example control activities. through associated routes, or TARs, illegal imports of food, and Context: Pest management activities based on the application movement of people), there is a high risk of spread of the disease of biological control agents are in progress to reduce the towards East and Southeast Asia. Further spread of ASF within the populations of the insect pest. region would have devastating consequences for animal health, food safety and food security, especially in those countries where Republic of Korea biosecurity in pig farming is low and compensation to farmers for Threat category: Plant pests and diseases depopulation of pigs is uncertain. ASF is a contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, that causes high mortality. Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) No effective treatment or vaccine is currently available. Likelihood of occurrence: Low Forecast (October-December 2019): Infestations will decline Threat category: Aquatic diseases as temperatures become cold. There is a very low risk of FAW remaining on winter wheat and barley. Threat name: Tilapia lake virus (TiLV) Context: Suspected FAW larvae were first detected in four corn Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate fields on Jeju island on 14 June 2019. They were identified as Forecast (October-December 2019): During the forecasting Spodoptera frugiperda by DNA barcoding on 16 June 2019. period, the production cycle of tilapia will be active. Additionally, This is the first detection of FAW in the Republic of Korea. the permissive temperature range for TiLV outbreaks will be present. Context: TiLV occurs when the water temperature is between 22°C and 32°C (as experienced for example in Israel); it has also been observed in farms with large-sized fish and a high stocking density. TiLV is already present in the country. Monitoring and active surveillance systems have been established.

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Uzbekistan Republic of Korea Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat category: Locusts Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Threat name: Migratory Locust Likelihood of occurrence: High Likelihood of occurrence: Low Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) Forecast (October-December 2019): Natural disappearance of outbreaks are very likely to continue to occur. the few remaining adult populations should occur; the eggs laid by adults of the first and, possibly, the second generation will Context: After ASF was reported for the first time in Asia in remain in the ground until next spring. China, in August 2018, and in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea on 23 May 2019, on 17 September 2019, ASF was Context: Locust pests attack a wide range of cultivated plants reported for the first time in the Republic of Korea, near the in the Caucasus and Central Asia and can cause severe damage, North Korean border. As of 7 October 2019, a total of 14 ASF thus jeopardizing the food security and livelihoods of rural events were confirmed in one administrative division of the populations. This species is one of the three locust pests present country. Because of the value-chain links of swine and their in Central Asia and in the country. products between the countries in the region (for example, through associated routes, or Transport Associated Routes Viet Nam (TARs), illegal imports of food, and movement of people), Threat category: Plant pests and diseases there is a high risk of spread of the disease towards East Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) and Southeast Asia. Further spread of ASF within the region would have devastating consequences for animal health, food Likelihood of occurrence: Low safety and food security, especially in those countries where Forecast (October-December 2019): There will be a low risk biosecurity in pig farming is low and compensation to farmers of FAW amplification during the forecasting period due to the for depopulation of pigs is uncertain. ASF is a contagious absence of the main FAW hosts. viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, that causes Context: In early March 2019, Viet Nam submitted specimens high mortality. No effective treatment nor vaccine is currently collected in border areas to the Centre for Agriculture and available. Bioscience International for molecular identification of the species. It was later confirmed as FAW. Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Forecast (October-December 2019): H5N6 Highly pathogenic Likelihood of occurrence: High avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks are expected to increase Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) towards December. outbreaks are very likely to continue to occur. Context: H5N6 HPAI outbreaks have been reported in the Context: ASF was reported for the first time in Asia in China, country in the past few years. A new reassortant strain of H5N6 in domestic pigs, in August 2018.The disease was then first HPAI has been circulating in the region (Japan, the Republic of reported in domestic pigs in Viet Nam in February 2019. As of Korea, and Taiwan, Province of China), since November 2017. 20 September 2019, more than 6 000 outbreaks have been The last occurrence of H5N6 HPAI in the Republic of Korea was reported in the 63 provinces/cities of the country. An Emergency reported in March 2018, while the virus was last reported in the Response Action Plan for African Swine Fever is under region in August 2019, in Viet Nam. HPAI is a highly contagious implementation in the country. Due to the value-chain links of disease causing high mortality in domestic birds. It generally swine and their products between the countries in the region results in severe production losses, loss of export markets and (for example through associated routes, or TARs, illegal imports drastic disease control measures that include culling of infected of food, and movement of people), there is a high risk of spread and in-contact birds. This has an impact on food security and of the disease towards East and Southeast Asia. Further spread trade. Some AI viruses can affect humans. of ASF within the region would have devastating consequences for animal health, food safety and food security, especially in those countries where biosecurity in pig farming is low and compensation to farmers for depopulation of pigs is uncertain. ASF is a contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, that causes high mortality. No effective treatment nor vaccine is currently available.

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Republic of Korea West Bank

Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): H5 Highly pathogenic avian Forecast (October-December 2019): Foot-and-mouth disease influenza (HPAI) outbreaks are expected to increase towards (FMD), serotype O, outbreaks are likely to continue to occur. December. Context: FMD, serotype O, was last reported in the region in Context: H5N1 and H5N6 HPAI outbreaks have been reported August 2019, in Israel. The last occurrence in the West Bank in the country in the past few years. A new reassortant strain was recorded in April 2019; however, the serotype was not of H5N6 HPAI has been circulating in the region (Japan, the noted. FMD is a highly contagious disease among cattle, buffalo, Republic of Korea, and Taiwan, Province of China), since sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp drop in milk and meat November 2017. The last occurrence of H5N6 HPAI in the production, in addition to mortality in young animals. It is the country was recorded in August 2019. HPAI is a highly most restrictive animal disease for livestock trade. contagious disease causing high mortality in domestic birds. It generally results in severe production losses, loss of export Yemen markets and drastic disease control measures that include Threat category: Plant pests and diseases culling of infected and in-contact birds. This has an impact on food security and trade. Some AI viruses can affect humans. Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Likelihood of occurrence: High Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Forecast (October-December 2019): FAW is likely to spread in the country and attack many host plants. Threat name: Banana fusarium wilt disease Context: FAW was officially reported in Yemen in 2018. It Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate continues to attack many host plants and spread to all Forecast (October-December 2019): Spread of Fusarium wilt host-growing areas. disease on banana is likely. Context: The most recent race of fungus causing the Banana Threat category: Locusts fusarium wilt disease (Tropical Race 4) was recently reported in the country and can spread further. Banana fusarium wilt Threat name: Desert Locust disease is soilborne and cannot be eradicated once it becomes Likelihood of occurrence: High established in the soil. The disease attacks banana plants of all Forecast (October-December 2019): Breeding will end in the ages, initially appearing with a yellowing of the leaves, then interior and groups and small swarms will move to coastal areas causing wilting and plant death. Infected planting materials, to breed, causing locusts to increase and form groups, bands water and movement of infested soil particles with shoes, tools and small swarms. and vehicles play a major role in spread. The disease can remain Context: Numerous Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria) viable in soil for decades and containment and management are populations pose a threat to agricultural production in Africa, challenging. Thus, prevention of spread is crucial. the Middle East and Asia, and have a negative impact on food security. The livelihoods of at least one tenth of the world’s population may be affected by this voracious insect. Desert Locusts are potentially the most dangerous locust pests, due to swarms’ ability to fly quickly over long distances.

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EUROPE

Albania Belgium

Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Likelihood of occurrence: Low Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks may occur as the disease is in the region. outbreaks are likely to continue to occur. Context: ASF has not been reported in the country. However, Context: In September 2018, two dead wild boars were found it was confirmed in August 2019 in Serbia, thus increasing the positive to ASF in Étalle (Luxembourg province). risk for the region. However, the domestic pig and wild boar As of 2 September 2019, 827 wild boars have been found to population is low.ASF is a contagious viral disease of swine, both be infected in Luxembourg province only. This represented the domestic and wild, that causes high mortality. No vaccines are first introduction of the disease into the country, and the first currently available. introduction of genotype 2 into Western Europe during the current epidemic. Wild boar population density is the most important factor in the spread of the disease. The disease may Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases become endemic only in wild boar, even in the absence of Threat name: Lumpy skin disease (LSD) pigs. ASF is a contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic Likelihood of occurrence: Low and wild, that causes high mortality. No vaccines are currently Forecast (October-December 2019): Lumpy skin disease available. (LSD) outbreaks are unlikely to occur because of unfavourable weather conditions. Bosnia and Herzegovina Context: Observed for the first time in June 2016, LSD has Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases caused almost 850 outbreaks, affecting 32 counties. Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Throughout 2017, outbreaks continued to be detected but were Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate not officially reported. An emergency vaccination campaign has been implemented, and regular vaccination campaigns are Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) carried out. LSD is a severe disease, transmitted by vectors, outbreaks are likely to occur through possible virus introduction which affects mainly cattle, causing important meat and milk from neighbouring countries. production losses. Context: ASF has not been reported in the country. However, it was confirmed in August 2019 in Serbia, thus increasing the risk for the region. Introduction (entry) through contaminated Threat category: Forest pests and diseases food products is assessed to be the highest risk factor. ASF is a Threat name: Pine processionary moth contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, that Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate causes high mortality. No vaccines are currently available. Forecast (October-December 2019): It is likely that the larval stage will be active throughout the colder periods, causing Bulgaria defoliation of needles. Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Context: Mechanical removal of nests is in progress to manage Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) the pest populations. Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Belarus Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks are likely to continue to occur. Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Context: ASF was first reported in the country in August 2018. Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Since then, additional events have been reported in wild boar Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate (last events: August 2019). ASF is a contagious viral disease of Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) swine, both domestic and wild, that causes high mortality. outbreaks are likely to occur. No vaccines are currently available. Context: ASF was last officially reported in the country in 2013. ASF is a contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, that causes high mortality. No vaccines are currently available.

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Denmark Bulgaria Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Likelihood of occurrence: Low Forecast (October-December 2019): H5N8 Highly pathogenic Forecast (October-December 2019): H5N6 Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks are expected to increase avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks are expected to occur at low towards December. levels. Context: H5N8 HPAI was first reported in Bulgaria in domestic Context:H5N6 HPAI first occurred in Denmark in wild birds in birds in February 2018. Since then, more than 30 events have February 2018. Since then, 35 events have been reported in been reported in domestic birds only. The most recent event wild birds only. The most recent event occurred in January 2019. occurred in April 2019. HPAI is a highly contagious disease HPAI is a highly contagious disease causing high mortality in causing high mortality in domestic birds. It generally results in domestic birds. It generally results in severe production losses, severe production losses, loss of export markets and drastic loss of export markets and drastic disease control measures disease control measures that include culling of infected and that include culling of infected and in-contact birds. This has an in-contact birds. This has an impact on food security and trade. impact on food security and trade. Some AIviruses can affect Some AI viruses can affect humans. humans.

Croatia Estonia

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France Hungary Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Xylella fastidiosa Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): Xylella olive decline spread Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) is possible. outbreaks are likely to continue to occur. Context: Olive decline caused by Xylella fastidiosa has been Context: ASF was officially reported for the first time in the country reported recently in two sites on the Mediterranean coast. in April 2018, in wild boar. The disease was last reported in August The bacterium is transmitted by insects. Immediate eradication 2019. ASF is a contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and and quarantine practices are critical to prevent spread. wild, that causes high mortality. No vaccines are available.

Germany Kosovo*

Context: The last observed outbreak of LSD in Greece related to Threat category: Plant pests and diseases a second wave of infection that occurred in late November 2016. Xylella fastidiosa Subsequently, two new outbreaks occurred in regions previously Threat name: unaffected by the disease: in February 2017, in Kerkyra, an Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Ionian island, and in August 2017, in Thessalia region. No new Forecast (October-December 2019): Spread of Xylella olive outbreaks were observed after these events. An emergency decline is possible. vaccination campaign has been implemented and regular Context: Olive decline caused by Xylella fastidiosa has caused vaccination campaigns are carried out. LSD is a severe disease, significant damage to olives in the Puglia region. The bacterium transmitted by vectors, that affects mainly cattle, causing is transmitted by insects. Immediate eradication and quarantine important meat and milk production losses. practices are critical to prevent spread.

* References to Kosovo shall be understood to be in the context of UN Security Council Resolution 1244 (1999).

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Latvia Montenegro

Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks are likely to continue to occur. outbreaks are likely to occur through possible virus introduction Context: ASF continues to be regularly reported in the country in from neighbouring countries. wild and domestic pigs. The last events occurred in August 2019. Context: ASF has not been reported in the country. However, ASF is a contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and it was confirmed in August 2019 in Serbia, thus increasing the wild, that causes high mortality. No vaccines are available. risk for the region. ASF is a contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, that causes high mortality. No vaccines Lithuania are currently available. Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Threat name: Lumpy skin disease (LSD) Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) Likelihood of occurrence: Low outbreaks are likely to continue to occur. Forecast (October-December 2019): Lumpy skin disease Context: Since the first ASF introduction into the country in (LSD) outbreaks are unlikely to occur because of unfavourable January 2014, the disease continued to be regularly reported in weather conditions. wild and domestic pigs. The disease is considered endemic in Context: The disease was first observed in April 2016. Since the country and disease reports are provided only on a then, LSD has spread throughout the country, causing at least six-monthly basis. ASF is a contagious viral disease of swine, 60 outbreaks in seven municipalities. The last observed outbreak both domestic and wild, that causes high mortality. No vaccines occurred in October 2017. An emergency vaccination campaign are currently available. has been implemented and regular vaccination campaigns are carried out, LSD is a severe disease, transmitted by vectors, Luxembourg that affects mainly cattle, causing important meat and milk production losses. Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Poland Likelihood of occurrence: High Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks are likely to occur through possible virus introduction from neighbouring countries. Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Context: On 13 September 2018, two dead wild boars were Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) found to be positive to ASF in Étalle (Luxembourg province) outbreaks are likely to continue to occur. in neighbouring Belgium. ASF continues to be reported Context: ASF continues to be regularly reported in the country in Luxembourg province only. This represented the first in wild and domestic pigs. ASF is a contagious viral disease of introduction of the disease into Western Europe. Spread of swine, both domestic and wild, that causes high mortality. the disease in Western European countries, which have never No vaccines are currently available. experienced ASF before, would have devastating consequences for the entire pig sector. Wild boar population density is the Serbia most significant factor in the spread of the disease in the Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases country. ASF is most likely to persist and become endemic due to the presence of wild boar populations. ASF is a contagious Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, that causes high Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate mortality. No vaccines are currently available. Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks are likely to continue to occur. Context: ASF was first confirmed in domestic pigs, close to the capital Belgrade, in August 2019. Entry of the disease may have occurred before this date. Presence of the disease in wild boar cannot be ruled out. ASF is a contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, that causes high mortality. No vaccines are currently available.

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Serbia Romania Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Lumpy skin disease (LSD) Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Likelihood of occurrence: Low Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): Lumpy skin disease Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) (LSD) outbreaks are unlikely to occur because of unfavourable outbreaks are likely to continue to occur. weather conditions. Context: ASF continues to be regularly reported in the country Context: In June 2016, LSD was first observed in a backyard in wild and domestic pigs. ASF is a contagious viral disease of farm in Pcinja district. Since then, 223 outbreaks were officially swine, both domestic and wild, that causes high mortality. reported in 12 districts. The last observed outbreak occurred No vaccines are currently available. in October 2016; since then, no new outbreaks have been reported. An emergency vaccination campaign has been Republic of North Macedonia implemented and regular vaccination campaigns are carried Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases out. LSD is a severe disease, transmitted by vectors, that affects mainly cattle, causing important meat and milk production Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) losses. Likelihood of occurrence: High Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) Slovakia outbreaks are likely to occur through possible virus introduction from neighboring countries. Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases ASF has not been reported in the country. However, ASF Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Context: has become endemic in Europe in some countries. The disease is Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate present in Bulgaria and Serbia. Informal and uncontrolled animal Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) movements and poor biosecurity conditions in pig farms at the outbreaks are likely to continue to occur. borders pose a risk of disease introduction. ASF is a contagious Context: ASF was first confirmed into the country on viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, that causes high 23 July 2019. Since then, ASF has been reported both in wild and mortality. No vaccines are currently available. domestic pigs in Kosice region (last event: August 2019). ASF is a contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, that Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases causes high mortality. No vaccines are currently available. Threat name: Lumpy skin disease (LSD) Republic of Moldova Likelihood of occurrence: Low Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Forecast (October-December 2019): Lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks are unlikely to occur because of unfavourable Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) weather conditions. Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Context:Observed for the first time in July 2016, LSD caused Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) almost 170 outbreaks, affecting 21 municipalities. After the outbreaks are likely to continue to occur. outbreak in September 2016, two outbreaks were observed in Context: Since ASF was first introduced into the country in northern municipalities of the country in February and April November 2016, it has been continually reported (most recently 2017. No new outbreaks were observed after those events. in August 2019), both in wild and domestic pigs. ASF is a An emergency vaccination campaign has been implemented, contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, that and regular vaccination campaigns are carried out. LSD is a causes high mortality. No vaccines are currently available. severe disease, transmitted by vectors, that affects mainly cattle, causing important meat and milk production losses.

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Russian Federation Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Likelihood of occurrence: Low Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Forecast (October-December 2019): H5 Highly pathogenic avian Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) influenza (HPAI) outbreaks are expected to occur at low levels. outbreaks are likely to continue to occur. Context:H5N8 HPAI first occurred in the Russian Federation in Context:ASF continues to be regularly reported in the country domestic birds in July 2018. In addition, several H5 HPAI events in wild and domestic pigs. The last events occurred in August have been reported in the country, most recently in January 2019. ASF is a contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic 2019. HPAI is a highly contagious disease causing high mortality and wild, that causes high mortality. No vaccines are currently in domestic birds. It generally results in severe production available. losses, loss of export markets and drastic disease control measures that include culling of infected and in-contact birds. Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases This has an impact on food security and trade. Some AI viruses can affect humans. Threat name: Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Ukraine Peste des petits ruminants Forecast (October-December 2019): Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases (PPR) outbreaks are likely to occur because of possible introduction from neighbouring countries. Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Context:The country has never experienced PPR, although the Likelihood of occurrence: Moderate disease is occurring in China, in the northeastern provinces, Forecast (October-December 2019): African swine fever (ASF) and in Western Mongolia, close to the borders with the Russian outbreaks are likely to continue to occur. Federation. PPR is a highly contagious disease affecting sheep Context:ASF continues to be regularly reported in the country and goats. It is caused by a morbillivirus and is considered to be in wild and domestic pigs. The last events occurred in August one of the most damaging livestock diseases in Asia. 2019. ASF is a contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, that causes high mortality. No vaccines are currently Threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases available. Threat name: Lumpy skin disease (LSD) Likelihood of occurrence: Low Forecast (October-December 2019): Lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks are unlikely to occur because of unfavourable weather conditions. Context:After its re-emergence in May 2016 in the country, LSD has spread north-, east- and westwards, affecting 20 administrative subjects and causing almost 500 outbreaks. Several outbreaks were reported in July and August 2018, and, most recently in August 2019. LSD is a severe disease transmitted by vectors, that affects mainly cattle, causing important meat and milk production losses.

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OCEANIA

Australia

Threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Banana fusarium wilt disease Likelihood of occurrence: Low Forecast (October-December 2019): Spread of Fusarium wilt disease on banana is possible. Context: The most recent race of the causal fungus of the disease (Tropical Race 4) has been present in two locations in the north of the country and a third infested site has been reported recently. Banana fusarium wilt disease is soilborne and cannot be eradicated once it becomes established in the soil. The disease attacks banana plants of all ages, initially appearing with a yellowing of the leaves, then causing wilting and plant death. Infected planting materials, water and movement of infested soil particles with shoes, tools and vehicles play a major role in spread. The disease can remain viable in soil for decades and containment and management are challenging. Thus, prevention of spread is crucial.

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GLOSSARY

FCC threat Food chain crisis (FCC) threats are transboundary animal and plant pests and diseases, including forest pests and aquatic diseases, and food safety threats, that can affect any step of the food chain, with a potential high impact on food and nutrition security. FCC threats may reach epidemic proportions by spreading within a country and to a number of countries, necessitating control/management cooperation between several countries.

Forecasting Ability to predict future condition or occurrence of an FCC threat for the upcoming three months.

Likelihood of introduction Chances of introduction of an FCC threat into a country, across border or to a specific area for the upcoming three months.

Likelihood of occurrence Chances of an FCC threat to happen for the upcoming three months.

Likelihood of spread Chances of geographical spread of an FCC threat within a country beyond its original introduction for the upcoming three months.

Likelihood of Chances of re-emergence/amplification (increase, breeding, etc.) of a threat re-emergence/amplification already existing within a country for the upcoming three months.

Biosecurity All the cumulative measures that can or should be taken to keep disease (viruses, bacteria, fungi, protozoa, parasites) from a farm and to prevent the transmission of disease (by humans, insects, rodents and wild birds and animals) within an infected farm to a neighbouring farm (FAOTERM).

Incursion An isolated population of a pest recently detected in an area, not known to be established, but expected to survive for the immediate future (FAOTERM).

Outbreak A recently detected pest population, including an incursion, or a sudden significant increase of an established pest population in an area (FAOTERM).

Zoonosis Any disease or infection which is naturally transmissible from animals to humans (FAOTERM).

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INFORMATION SOURCES

Transboundary Animal and Aquatic Diseases African swine fever risk assessment available at: http://www.fao.org/3/i8805en/I8805EN.pdf Avian influenza - Risk assessment: http://www.fao.org/3/i8705en/I8705EN.PDF - EMPRES - I: http://empres-i.fao.org/eipws3g/ - OIE/FAO Network of Expertise on animal influenzas (OFFLU):www.offlu.net ECDC - Communicable disease threats report (CDTR) available at: https://ecdc.europa.eu/en/threats-and-outbreaks FMD Situation Reports available at: http://www.fao.org/ag/againfo/commissions/eufmd/commissions/eufmd-home/fmd-surveillance/situation-reports/en/ Global Animal Disease Information System (EMPRES-i) available at: http://empres-i.fao.org/eipws3g/ Global Early Warning System (GLEWS) at FAO OIE World Animal Health Information Database (WAHID) Interface available at: http://www.oie.int/wahis_2/public/wahid.php/Wahidhome/Home Tilapia Lake Virus (TiLV) disease card available at: http://www.oie.int/fileadmin/Home/eng/Internationa_Standard_Setting/docs/pdf/A_TiLV_disease_card.pdf

Desert Locust FAO Desert Locust Information Service (DLIS) available at: www.fao.org/ag/locusts Locusts (three species) in Caucasus and Central Asia Regional monthly bulletins on locust situations in CCA available at: http://www.fao.org/ag/locusts-CCA/en/1014/index.html Reports of the annual Technical Workshop on Locusts in CCA available at: http://www.fao.org/ag/locusts-CCA/en/index.html

Fall armyworm http://www.fao.org/food-chain-crisis/how-we-work/plant-protection/fallarmyworm/en/ Wheat rust disease Global wheat rust monitoring system

Weather forecast https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/ http://www.noaa.gov/weather

Threats to Food Security FAO Crop Prospects and Food Situation – Quarterly Global Report – No.3, September 2019

Glossary FAO Term portal: http://www.fao.org/faoterm/en/ IPPC Glossary: https://www.ippc.int/en/publications/glossary-phytosanitary-terms/ FAO Food Safety and Quality website - A-Z index: http://www.fao.org/food/food-safety-quality/a-z-index/ biosecurity/en/ ACAPS: https://www.acaps.org/

CA6744EN/1/10.19 www.fao.org/food-chain-crisis