Opportunities for Peace in Kismayo, Somalia
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Al-Qaeda's Keys to Success
DIGITAL-ONLY VIEW Al- Qaeda’s Keys to Success MAJ RYAN CK HESS, USAF ver the past 20 years, al- Qaeda has been the most recognizable and infa- mous terrorist organization on the planet. The group has planned and executed thousands of violent attacks, spurred dozens of offshoot affiliate Oand copycat groups, and even created rival Islamic extremist organizations. De- spite all this, and subsequently spending the past 20 years at war with the world’s most effective militaries, the group continues to carry out its operations. More- over, the success of foreign al- Qaeda affiliates illustrate that the group has become a global threat. Analyzing the tools that the organization has used to succeed will give us a better understanding of how to combat al-Qaeda. Perhaps more impor- tantly, it will also help intelligence agencies recognize what strategies the group will likely employ in the future. There are some who argue that al- Qaeda is dying. In this article, I argue that not only is it far from dead, but that the main factors contributing to al- Qaeda’s continued global success are decentralization, effective narratives and propaganda, and the specific targeting of locations with a preexist- ing history of instability and violence. This article will use three al-Qaeda affiliates and allies—al-Shabaab, Ansar al- Dine (AAD), and al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) — to demon- strate each of the above listed success factors. However, before we can discuss how al- Qaeda has achieved their success, we must first define success. If success is to be defined as the completion of each organization’s stated goals, none of them have yet succeeded. -
Al Shabaab's American Recruits
Al Shabaab’s American Recruits Updated: February, 2015 A wave of Americans traveling to Somalia to fight with Al Shabaab, an Al Qaeda-linked terrorist group, was described by the FBI as one of the "highest priorities in anti-terrorism." Americans began traveling to Somalia to join Al Shabaab in 2007, around the time the group stepped up its insurgency against Somalia's transitional government and its Ethiopian supporters, who have since withdrawn. At least 50 U.S. citizens and permanent residents are believed to have joined or attempted to join or aid the group since that time. The number of Americans joining Al Shabaab began to decline in 2012, and by 2014, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) replaced Al Shabaab as the terrorist group of choice for U.S. recruits. However, there continue to be new cases of Americans attempting to join or aid Al Shabaab. These Americans have received weapons training alongside recruits from other countries, including Britain, Australia, Sweden and Canada, and have used the training to fight against Ethiopian forces, African Union troops and the internationally-supported Transitional Federal Government in Somalia, according to court documents. Most of the American men training with Al Shabaab are believed to have been radicalized in the U.S., especially in Minneapolis, according to U.S. officials. The FBI alleges that these young men have been recruited by Al Shabaab both on the Internet and in person. One such recruit from Minneapolis, 22-year-old Abidsalan Hussein Ali, was one of two suicide bombers who attacked African Union troops on October 29, 2011. -
The Kismayo Bubble - Justice and Security in Jubbaland
CONFLICT RESEARCH PROGRAMME Research at LSE Conflict Research Programme Research Memo 26 March 2021 The Kismayo Bubble - Justice and Security in Jubbaland Nisar Majid and Khalif Abdirahman Overview The absence of a credible and functional government, in Somalia, since the late 1980s has been felt particularly strongly in the arena of the rule of law. Under President Siad Barre, the judicial system was resented for being corrupt, politically manipulated and for rejecting Islamic precepts, and many welcomed its demise. It was perhaps inevitable that in the absence of a system of state courts that Islamic law and courts would emerge. As Muslims, Somalis were able to call upon a well-formed body of jurisprudence and practice that enjoyed social legitimacy and historically validated practices, to establish courts. Islamic law has a particular advantage in this regard in that it encompasses a penal code, a civil code, and commercial and tax codes. All of these are essential for the conduct of everyday life. Recent analyses of the justice and security sector have highlighted its politicisation and, particularly in Mogadishu, a political economy centred around clan-based mobilization and conflict, ideological divisions between supporters of different versions of Islamic and secular law as well as rent seeking behaviour. At a practical level, although some significant developments are noticeable, government courts remain subject to high levels of corruption and manipulation, are slow, limited by poor security and a lack of enforcement capacity. The persistence of Al Shabaab as a credible actor in the provision of justice sits in stark contrast to that of the Government. -
Somalia's Jubbaland: Past, Present and Potential Futures
Rift Valley Institute Meeting Report Nairobi Forum, 22 February 2013 POLITICS NOW Somalia's Jubbaland: Past, present and potential futures an ‘ethno-state’ liKe Puntland, because it is not Key points populated by a single clan. Some view Jubbaland as a § Due to its natural resources and location, Darod clan state, but when the large number of non- Jubbaland has the potential to be one of Darod populations along the Jubba river and in east Somalia’s richest regions, but conflict has bank communities taKen into account, the Darod clan kept it chronically unstable for over two probably comprise 50-60 per cent of the total decades. population. He warned that, if Jubbaland is treated as a Darod state and power-sharing is institutionalized § The regions of Jubbaland are not linked by along those lines, then other residents of the region road and have no history of shared would feel disenfranchised and could turn to al- administration. As an administrative unit, Shabaab. Jubbaland is not likely to be functional. Is Jubbaland viable as a federal state? First, for § The Somali constitution provides no clear Jubbaland to succeed as such a state, it needs some guidance on how newly declared federal history of shared governance and cooperation—and states are to be created, or what their it does not have such a history. Distant Jubbaland relations with the central government communities are very unlikely to respect claims of should be. authority from Kismayo. § The environmental consequences of the charcoal trade are having a negative impact A second criterion for judging whether a region could on livelihoods and food security. -
The Security Bazaar Aisha Ahmad Business Interests and Islamist Power in Civil War Somalia
The Security Bazaar The Security Bazaar Aisha Ahmad Business Interests and Islamist Power in Civil War Somalia Many intractable civil wars take place in countries with large Muslim populations.1 In these pro- tracted conºicts, Islamists are often just one of many actors ªghting in a com- plex landscape of ethnic, tribal, and political violence. Yet, certain Islamist groups compete exceptionally well in these conºicts. Why do Islamists some- times gain power out of civil war stalemates? Although much of the existing research points to either ethnic or religious motivations, I argue that there are also hard economic reasons behind the rise of Islamist power.2 In this article, I offer a micro-political economy model of Islamist success in civil war that highlights the role of an important, but often-overlooked, class: the local busi- ness community. The convergence of business and Islamist interests is relevant across a wide range of cases of contemporary civil war. In present-day Syria and Iraq, jihadi groups have built strong ties to smuggling and criminal networks to fund their Aisha Ahmad is Assistant Professor at the University of Toronto and a former fellow of the International Se- curity Program at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University. The author is especially grateful to outstanding colleagues in Kenya and Somalia, including Jabril Abdulle, Sahal Abdulle, Dr. Ibrahim Farah, Dr. Yahya Amir Ibrahim, and Dr. Deqo Mohamed. The author also thanks Theodore McLauchlan, Stephen Saideman, Stuart Soroka, and the anonymous reviewers for comments on earlier drafts, as well seminar and workshop participants at the Belfer Center and McGill University who provided helpful feedback. -
Region Receiving People Population Movement Trends Continued to Decrease from 12,000 in July to 9,000 in the Month of August
Population Movement Tracking Monthly Report August , 2012 Total movement within Somalia: 9,000 nationwide UNHCR Office Location Region receiving people Population movement trends continued to decrease from 12,000 in July to 9,000 in the month of August. Region People Awdal 200 This downward trend in movements is likely to have resulted from the cessation of fighting between Woqooyi Galbeed 200 AMISOM/SNF and Al-Shabaab in areas once under the control of Al-Shabaab. Despite this, residents in Sanaag 0 some districts still fear conflict due to sporadic fighting between AMISOM/SNF forces and disperesed Al- Bari 100 Shabab groups. For example, Xudur district saw disperesed Al-Shabaab groups trying to reinstate its Sool 0 authority. Almost 2,000 people left Marka because of fighting between these two groups. Major Togdheer 100 movements took place in Mogadishu which received almost 3,000 people due to the defeat of Al-Shabaab Nugaal 0 militants from surroudning regions. Insecurity remained the main reason for movement, resulting in almost Mudug 100 Galgaduud 0 5,000 displacements. This month, Marka and Kismayo district exepericned insecurity which led to almost Hiraan 0 2,000 and 900 people respectively flee to other districts. Lack of livelihood was the secondary reason for Bakool 300 movement. Residents in Gedo region were deeply affected by the failure of the previous rainy season. Shabelle Dhexe 300 Forced returns from Saudi Arabia continued this month, with about 400 individuals returned to Mogadishu. Mogadishu 3,000 Cross-border movements from Kenya to Somalia were reported to have been a total of 600 individuals. -
Somalia Un Mptf Programme
SOMALIA UN MPTF PROGRAMME QUARTERLY PROGRESS REPORT Period (Quarter-Year): QUARTER 1 YEAR 2017 1 Rev. 6 SOMALIA UN MPTF Total MPTF Funds Received Total non-MPTF Funds Received PUNO Current quarter Cumulative Current quarter Cumulative FGS-MOF 0 899,408 0 0 JP Expenditure of MPTF Funds1 JP Expenditure of non-MPTF Funds PUNO Current quarter Cumulative Current quarter Cumulative FGS MOF 37,794.15 123,727.43 0 0 QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS 1. A unified work plan has been produced for both UN and World Bank projects by PIU with input from ECOTECH. 2. PIU with collaboration with the Permanent Secretary of the FGS Ministry of Finance established a bid evaluations committee comprising of five (5) individuals drawn from different departments. 3. In the procurement of phase 1 sub-projects in Kismayo and Banaadir, PIU and ECOTECH jointly developed bidding documents. The Bid Evaluation Committee has recommended two bids for Kismayo and Banadir sub-projects. The documents & the evaluation is now under review by the UN. 4. ECOTECH (designing company) and the PIU engineers visited Bandiiradley and Galkac'yo districts to conduct an initial design of the sub-projects prioritized by the community. 5. PIU team participated in five-day workshop in Nairobi to be trained on fiduciary, procurement and disbursements of funds organized by the WB. SITUATION UPDATE Generally, there has been a delay in implementation of the SFF-LD project activities because of the prolonged elections period and the selection of the Cabinet of Ministers. On the project front, PIU is working with the UN to review of project result framework. -
Countering Terrorism in East Africa: the U.S
Countering Terrorism in East Africa: The U.S. Response Lauren Ploch Analyst in African Affairs November 3, 2010 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov R41473 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Countering Terrorism in East Africa: The U.S. Response Summary The United States government has implemented a range of programs to counter violent extremist threats in East Africa in response to Al Qaeda’s bombing of the U.S. embassies in Tanzania and Kenya in 1998 and subsequent transnational terrorist activity in the region. These programs include regional and bilateral efforts, both military and civilian. The programs seek to build regional intelligence, military, law enforcement, and judicial capacities; strengthen aviation, port, and border security; stem the flow of terrorist financing; and counter the spread of extremist ideologies. Current U.S.-led regional counterterrorism efforts include the State Department’s East Africa Regional Strategic Initiative (EARSI) and the U.S. military’s Combined Joint Task Force – Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA), part of U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM). The United States has also provided significant assistance in support of the African Union’s (AU) peace operations in Somalia, where the country’s nascent security forces and AU peacekeepers face a complex insurgency waged by, among others, Al Shabaab, a local group linked to Al Qaeda that often resorts to terrorist tactics. The State Department reports that both Al Qaeda and Al Shabaab pose serious terrorist threats to the United States and U.S. interests in the region. Evidence of linkages between Al Shabaab and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, across the Gulf of Aden in Yemen, highlight another regional dimension of the threat posed by violent extremists in the area. -
A Report on the Mapping Study of Peace & Security Engagement In
A Report on the Mapping Study of Peace & Security Engagement in African Tertiary Institutions Written by Funmi E. Vogt This project was funded through the support of the Carnegie Corporation About the African Leadership Centre In July 2008, King’s College London through the Conflict, Security and Development group (CSDG), established the African Leadership Centre (ALC). In June 2010, the ALC was officially launched in Nairobi, Kenya, as a joint initiative of King’s College London and the University of Nairobi. The ALC aims to build the next generation of scholars and analysts on peace, security and development. The idea of an African Leadership Centre was conceived to generate innovative ways to address some of the challenges faced on the African continent, by a new generation of “home‐grown” talent. The ALC provides mentoring to the next generation of African leaders and facilitates their participation in national, regional and international efforts to achieve transformative change in Africa, and is guided by the following principles: a) To foster African‐led ideas and processes of change b) To encourage diversity in terms of gender, region, class and beliefs c) To provide the right environment for independent thinking d) Recognition of youth agency e) Pursuit of excellence f) Integrity The African Leadership Centre mentors young Africans with the potential to lead innovative change in their communities, countries and across the continent. The Centre links academia and the real world of policy and practice, and aims to build a network of people who are committed to the issue of Peace and Security on the continent of Africa. -
THE FAUNA of JUBALAND by JOHN N
26 Oryx to see that the Serengeti Plains are still designated as a Game Reserve and not as a National Park, but this is said to be only until the final boundary of the Serengeti National Park has been fixed. Captain Keith Caldwell, whose knowledge of East African game is unrivalled and who has just returned from Tanganyika, was called into consultation during the framing of the draft bill under discussion. The Society is grateful to its very active member and welcomes the new Bill as a sincere attempt to put game preservation in Tanganyika at last upon a sound footing. THE FAUNA OF JUBALAND By JOHN N. WARD and DAVID S. SORRELL The object of these notes is to give a record of the wild life living in the Lower Juba area of Somalia, and to assist visitors to Jubaland in finding the haunts of the various animals described. The writers do not presume to lay down the methods of identifying these animals because more knowledgeable authors have already done this elsewhere. The Lower Juba is that area which was the Administrative District of Kismayu under the recent British occupation. It extends from Ghesgud to Dujuma on the left bank of the Juba River, and contains all the land between the right bank of the river and the Kenya border from Ras Ciamboni to Dif, lying south of a line Dif-Dujuma (see map). The area is approximately 20,000 square miles, and was held by the British from 1898 to 1925 when it was handed over to the Italians. -
Gedo Intercluster Initial Investigation – September
INTER -AGENCY DROUGHT ASSESSMENT IN LOWER JUBA REGION OF SOMALIA JANUARY 2017 INTER-AGENCY DROUGHT ASSESSMENT IN LOWER JUBA REGION – JANUARY 2017 Table of contents Executive summary -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 Key findings --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 Recommendations --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 Acronyms, abbreviations and definitions of Somalia terminologies --------------------------- 6 Acknowledgement ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 Introduction /context of the inter-agency assessment -------------------------------------------- 8 Methodology ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 9 Assessment findings -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 Impact of drought ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 10 Findings by cluster ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 Food Security and Livelihoods --------------------------------------------------------------- 10 Education ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 12 Nutrition -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 Water, Sanitation -
Rethinking the Somali State
Rethinking the Somali State MPP Professional Paper In Partial Fulfillment of the Master of Public Policy Degree Requirements The Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs The University of Minnesota Aman H.D. Obsiye May 2017 Signature below of Paper Supervisor certifies successful completion of oral presentation and completion of final written version: _________________________________ ____________________ ___________________ Dr. Mary Curtin, Diplomat in Residence Date, oral presentation Date, paper completion Paper Supervisor ________________________________________ ___________________ Steven Andreasen, Lecturer Date Second Committee Member Signature of Second Committee Member, certifying successful completion of professional paper Table of Contents Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 3 Methodology .......................................................................................................................... 5 The Somali Clan System .......................................................................................................... 6 The Colonial Era ..................................................................................................................... 9 British Somaliland Protectorate ................................................................................................. 9 Somalia Italiana and the United Nations Trusteeship .............................................................. 14 Colonial