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ETHERNET and the FIFTH GENERATION Gordon Bell Vice

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ETHERNET and the FIFTH GENERATION Gordon Bell Vice THE ENGINEERING OF THE VAX-11 COMPUTING ENVIRONMENT The VAX-11 architectural design and implementation began in 1975 with the goals of a wide range of system sizes and different styles of use. While much of the implementation has been "as planned", various nodes (eg. computers, disk servers) and combined structures (eg. clusters) have evolved in response to the technology forces, user requirements and constraints. The future offers even more possibilities for interesting structures. ETHERNET AND THE FIFTH GENERATION Gordon Bell Vice President, Engineering Digital Equipment Corporation In the Fifth Computer Generation, a wide variety of computers will communicate with one another. No one argues about this. The concern is about how to do it and what form the computers will take. A standard communications language is the key. I believe Ethernet is this unifying key to the 5th computer generation because it interconnects all sizes and types of computers in a passive, tightly-coupled, high performance fashion, permiting the formation of local-area networks. HOW THE JAPANESE HAVE CONVERTED WORLD INDUSTRY INTO DISTRIBUTORSHIPS -- CONCERN NOW FOR SEMICONDUCTORS AND COMPUTERS Gordon Bell Vice President Digital Equipment Corporation Abstract We all must be impressed with the intense drive, technical and manufacturing ability of the Japanese. As an island with few natural resources, and only very bright, hard working people they have set about and accomplished the market domination of virtually all manufactured consumer goods and the components and processes to make these goods (i.e., vertical integration). Currently the U.S. has a dominant position in computers and semiconductors. However, there's no fundamental reason why the Japanese won't attain a basic goal to dominate these industries, given their history in other areas and helped by our governments. On a first visit to Japanese computer/semiconductor companies, universities, and a government R&D laboratory, I found them relatively open. This was in contrast to my former experience as a computer science researcher with their one-way scientific interchange and being an information sink. Perhaps their openness is because they are so far along with good products, and their position so secure. Their competence, hospitality, and "apparent openness" made me quite fond of them; but I now fear them more than ever. Forty-odd reasons are given in the form of "feelings" to support this domination conjecture. No solutions are given, assuming a distributorship is basically unhealthy (as shown in the 3 island formulation). The reasons are formed from my observations, but like the Japanese, taken freely from other sources with an attempt to make a better, more complete end product for industrial and government users. ID#0257 9/7/78 September 22, 1983 Dr. John Wakerly David Systems 45 Cabot Avenue Santa Clara, CA 95051 Ms. Christina Champion Computer Magazine 10662 Los Alamitos CA 90720 Dear John and Christina: I'm delighted to accept your offer to Keynote the Spring Compcon in San Francisco. Enclosed is a vitae and photograph for Computer Magazine. The title for the talk is tentatively, Understanding Evolution To Leverage the Leverage. Civilization has always been concerned with building tools to leverage intellectual processes. Although a few tools are revolutionary, nearly all are evolutionary. Virtually all revolutionary tools (machines) fail, usually for simple reasons. What are the heuristics for success (and failure avoidance)? I'll be in the Bay Area the week of October 17, and will call you about a meeting to further discuss the topic. Sincerely, Gordon Bell Chief Technical Officer GB8.13 LOCAL AREA NETS, DISTRIBUTED PROCESSING AND THE FIFTH GENERATION Gordon Bell Vice President, Engineering Digital Equipment Corporation Local Area Networks are a natural evolutionary form of computing which have come into existence to form the Fifth Computer Generation. Economies of scale for processing have disappeared, but other forms of information processing (transducing, storage, communications, specialized processing) are still expensive. The high cost components are necessary and even desirable to share when all costs (especially including user time) are evaluated. Whether computing is personalized and independent, shared in a group or provided by a central service will vary with the user and organization. Local Area Networks offer the greatest flexibility in deciding where and how to process information. OBSERVATIONS ON GENERATING COMPUTER GENERATIONS We've implemented thousands of species of the computer in a few, basically evolutionary technologies. These technologies mark the generations. The evolutionary process is cyclic and includes the technology, the architecture and implementation of species, followed by use which in turn generates increased demand for better technology, permitting evolutionary new computer structures. Since new generations spring from new technologies and often different people, a new generation most likely follows the time-worn path of early pioneers. New generation builders tend to relearn the same lessons about technology limits, architecture, its evolution including the "wheel of reincarnation" for specialized functions, multiprocessors, etc. DISTRIBUTED PROCESSING AND LIMITS TO ITS GROWTH Gordon Bell Vice President Engineering Digital Equipment Corporation Abstract Invariably, the computer has been complex enough, yet structurally simple, to effectively utilize semiconductor and magnetic storage density improvements for both increased processing and lower cost providing widely available computation on a distributed basis. From an end-user viewpoint, it's hard to imagine a saturation, despite the fact that a leveling off has always been predicted. The new fifth generation and successor generation, VLSI-based computers, will stimulate use even further providing computation for what is analogous to the fractional horsepower motor. It is worth trying to identify and then examine the factors which might limit growth: the basic technologies? the complexity of the design, given the planarity of semiconductors? either the lack or forced existence of standards? defacto constraints (e.g., communication and TV formats)? the imagination and skill of the intermediate designer/applier who must cope with the far greater complexity brought about by larger systems and programs? inability of the final user to cope with greater complexity? and possible rejection to being suplemented with so much information and information processing? Talks /11 GENERATING COMPUTER GENERATIONS Gordon Bell Vice President, Engineering Digital Equipment Corporation Abstract: The computer and pre-computer generations are marked by an identifiably new machine structure, physical technology, the basic needs for computation and actual machine use. There were four pre-computer generations and four computer generations. Thirty-six lessons have been observed, so far, and will be described and illustrated. INNOVATION ISN'T THE PROBLEM - THE JAPANESE HAVE CONVERTED U.S. INDUSTRY INTO DISTRIBUTORS BY EFFECTIVELY UTILIZING AVAILABLE IDEAS Gordon Bell Vice President Digital Equipment Corporation Abstract The island of Japan, with few natural resources and over 100 million people, virtually dominates world production of manufactured goods, including the components and processes to make these goods. The Japanese have progressed from domination of low- technology simple commodities to complex manufactured goods. The United States still holds a dominant position in the production of computers and semiconductors, but the Japanese plan to dominate these industries. Unwittingly, U.S. industry, government and society continue to aid the Japanese. Many reasons support this conjecture, each one providing a lesson. TALKS /12 MINICOMPUTER ARCHITECTURE Gordon Bell Vice President, Engineering Digital Equipment Corporation & Professor of Computer Science & Electrical Engineering Carnegie-Mellon University (on leave) Abstract Minimal cost computer designs (i.e. minicomputers) are predicated on using technological cost-performance improvements which occur at an annual rate of 25-30%. New applications are thereby feasible with the decreasing costs. A significant number of minicomputers are manufactured in which the cost is constant (or rising), thereby providing more performance (capabilities). The higher performance machines "take" their characteristics from the larger, general purpose computers (e.g. floating point arithmetic, multiprocessors, cache memories and memory management). The origin and evolution of the minicomputer will be discussed with regard to technology and applications. THE PDP-11 FAMILY AND VAX-11/780 FOR A LARGE VIRTUAL ADDRESS Gordon Bell Vice President, Engineering Digital Equipment Corporation & Professor of Computer Science & Electrical Engineering Carnegie-Mellon University (on leave) Abstract In the eight years the PDP-11 has been on the market, more than 50,000 units in ten different models have been sold. Although one of the system design goals was a broad range of models, the actual range of 500 to 1 (in price and memory size) has exceeded the design goal. The PDP-11 was designed and first implemented to be a small minicomputer. Its first extension was to a bigger physical address, memory segmentation for multiprogramming and for higher performance. This part of the talk will briefly reflect the experience in the design process, comment on its success from the point of view of the goals, and its
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