Central Regions Land Capacity Analysis Shire of Northampton

February 2016 February 2016 Central Regions Land Capacity Analysis Shire of Northampton

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This document has been published by the Department of Planning. Any representation, statement, opinion or advice expressed or implied in this publication is made in good faith and on the basis that the Government, its employees and agents are not liable for any damage or loss whatsoever which may occur as a result of action taken or not taken, as the case may be, in respect of any representation, statement, opinion or advice referred to herein. Professional advice should be obtained before applying the information contained in this document to particular circumstances.

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Published February 2016 website: www.planning.wa.gov.au email: [email protected] tel: 08 6551 9000 fax: 08 6551 9001 National Relay Service: 13 36 77 infoline: 1800 626 477

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Department of Planning 2 February 2016 Central Regions Land Capacity Analysis Shire of Northampton

1. Introduction 2. Settlement land-use mapping The Central Regions Land Capacity Analysis The Department of Planning (DoP) has prepared provides a broad overview of the existing and mapping that captures the spatial extents future land capacity of settlements in the Mid West, of current and future land use in applicable Gascoyne and Goldfields-Esperance regions settlements. Within the Shire of Northampton, this with respect to forecast population growth. In includes: particular, it examines land identified for residential, commercial and industrial development. • Northampton (Map 1);

The purpose of this document is to present the • Kalbarri (Map 2); land-use mapping and associated analysis as it • relates to the applicable settlements in the Shire of Horrocks (Map 3); Northampton local government area. • Port Gregory (Map 4); Notably, the analysis suggests there is sufficient • Nabawa and Nanson surrounds including land capable of substantial further development Isseka (part) (Map 5); and (based on the current extents of zoned residential land and land identified for future residential • Barrel Well (Map 6). purposes) to cater for the population growth anticipated in the Western Australia Tomorrow Further context on how this mapping has been 2026 population forecasts for the Shire of developed is provided below. Northampton.

The information presented in this document may provide a basis for a range of regional and local 2.1 Current and future land use strategic planning including: For the purpose of this study, the mapping • to assist regional planning and provide categorises current and future land uses into direction for strategic infrastructure broad land-use types. It effectively rationalises coordination; and consolidates existing zones and reserves in local planning schemes with intended future land • to inform the preparation and/or review of uses identified in a number of strategic documents, local planning strategies, schemes and including local planning strategies and structure structure plans; and plans.

• for more detailed land supply analysis, The areas identified on the maps are based on the including further investigation into the general consideration of: infrastructure requirements to service potential development of the future land • current zonings and reservations within supply. applicable local planning schemes; and

Given the dynamic nature of planning and • other strategic planning documents development, it is intended that this paper will be including local planning strategies, amended periodically to reflect future updates to structure plans, layout plans and/or growth local planning instruments as relevant. plans where relevant.

Notwithstanding this, the information contained in this document has been prepared for guidance purposes only.

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With respect to this, the extent of current land uses • Kalbarri Townsite Strategy 2012; generally reflect that of applicable existing zones and reserves in current local planning schemes; • Seaview Farms Structure Plan 2011 and future land uses generally reflect where land (Horrocks); has been identified in other documents for a • different (typically more intensive) land use than Port Kalbarri Structure Plan 2004 that identified in the current scheme. (Kalbarri); and • Planning instruments that have informed the Barrel Well Layout Plan 1 (draft). preparation of the settlement land-use mapping As a general guide, a broad description of what within the Shire of Northampton include the: each land-use category considers is provided • Shire of Northampton Local Planning below: Scheme No. 9;

• Shire of Northampton Local Planning Scheme No. 10;

• Shire of Northampton Local Planning Strategy 2008;

Areas that are predominantly currently zoned in relevant local planning Residential schemes for residential land uses

Areas that have been identified predominantly for future residential land Future residential uses through relevant strategic planning processes

Areas that are predominantly currently zoned in relevant local planning Rural residential schemes for rural residential land uses

Future rural Areas that have been identified predominantly for future rural residential residential land uses through relevant strategic planning processes

Rural Areas that are predominantly currently zoned in relevant local planning smallholdings schemes for rural smallholdings land uses

Future rural Areas that have been identified predominantly for future rural smallholdings smallholdings land uses through relevant strategic planning processes

Areas that are predominantly currently zoned in relevant local planning Commercial schemes for commercial land uses

Future Areas that have been identified predominantly for future commercial land commercial uses through relevant strategic planning processes

Department of Planning 4 February 2016 Central Regions Land Capacity Analysis Shire of Northampton

Areas that are predominantly currently zoned in relevant local planning Industrial schemes for industrial land uses

Areas that have been identified predominantly for future industrial land Future industrial uses through relevant strategic planning processes

Areas that are predominantly currently zoned in relevant local planning Rural schemes for rural land uses

Areas that have been identified predominantly for future rural land uses Future rural through relevant strategic planning processes

Infrastructure and Areas that are predominantly currently reserved in relevant local planning public purposes schemes for infrastructure and/or public purposes

Future Areas that have been identified predominantly for future infrastructure infrastructure and and/or public purposes through relevant strategic planning processes public purposes

Areas that are predominantly currently reserved in relevant local planning Recreation schemes for recreation purposes

Areas that have been identified predominantly for future recreation Future recreation purposes through relevant strategic planning processes

Areas that are predominantly currently reserved in relevant local planning Conservation schemes for conservation purposes

Future Areas that have been identified predominantly for future conservation conservation purposes through relevant strategic planning processes

Areas that are predominantly currently identified as a recommended Aboriginal settlement zone in relevant layout plans, and/or are zoned in relevant community local planning schemes for the purposes of Aboriginal settlement Areas that are currently zoned in relevant local planning schemes for specific purposes that do not align with other broad land-use categories Special land use as described, or where their inclusion may unduly distort the results of the associated analysis Areas that have been identified through relevant strategic planning processes where alternative future land uses may be considered subject Investigation area to further investigation. This may include areas from plans in preparation or in draft form

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2.2 Development status

To gain a general understanding of the potential have conditional subdivision approval or be capacity of currently zoned and potential part of a broader structure planning process future-zoned land within each settlement, a that still needs to be finalised. It is important broad assessment has been undertaken of the to note that the development of areas that development status of applicable land identified are currently considered to be capable of for residential, commercial, industrial, rural substantial further development may be residential and rural smallholdings purposes. subject to a number of constraints; including Generally, the assessment involved a visual scheme amendments, structure planning, interpretation of aerial photography and cadastral infrastructure provision, environmental and information. heritage issues.

This assessment has been undertaken for those Table 1 summarises the development status of settlements where the applicable land uses occur each applicable land-use category for all relevant within the map extents, which in the Shire of settlements, representing a set of total figures for Northampton includes: the entire local government area. It consolidates all data from Tables 2 to 6, which summarise the • Northampton; development status of each applicable land-use category as it relates to the individual settlements. • Kalbarri;

• Horrocks;

• Port Gregory; and

• Nabawa and Nanson surrounds including Isseka (part - Shire of Northampton).

Applicable areas within the map extents have been assessed and considered as being ‘developed’ or ‘capable of substantial further development’ as described below.

Developed: ‘developed’ land is broadly considered as land where development exists or where the necessary infrastructure and services to accommodate development exist. Subdivision is generally consistent with its zoning, however existing urban areas that could potentially accommodate increases in density through urban infill are considered to be ‘developed.’

Capable of substantial further development: Land ‘capable of substantial further development’ consists of undeveloped or underdeveloped land on greenfield sites, where subdivision reflective of its zoning is yet to exist. In some instances however, land may

Department of Planning 6 Central Regions Land Capacity Analysis February 2016 Shire of Northampton

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Table 1: Shire of Northampton - development status of land in relevant settlements

Capable of Total Developed (ha) substantial further development (ha) Residential 534 309 225 Future residential 255 0 255 Residential and 789 309 480 future residential Rural residential 323 268 55 Future rural residential 197 0 197 Rural residential and 520 268 252 future rural residential Rural smallholdings 0 0 0 Future rural smallholdings 5,362 0 5,362 Rural smallholdings and 5,362 0 5,362 future rural smallholdings Commercial 52.5 42.5 10 Future commercial 1 0 1 Commercial and 53.5 42.5 11 future commercial Industrial 66 31 35 Future industrial 17 0 17 Industrial and 83 31 52 future industrial

Department of Planning 13 February 2016 Central Regions Land Capacity Analysis Shire of Northampton

Table 2: Northampton - development status of land

Capable of Total Developed (ha) substantial further development (ha) Residential 235 146 89 Future residential 6 0 6 Residential and 241 146 95 future residential Rural residential 138 96 42 Future rural residential 116 0 116 Rural residential and 254 96 158 future rural residential Rural smallholdings 0 0 0 Future rural smallholdings 1,749 0 1,749 Rural smallholdings and 1,749 0 1,749 future rural smallholdings Commercial 16 16 0 Future commercial 0 0 0 Commercial and 16 16 0 future commercial Industrial 23 17 6 Future industrial 0 0 0 Industrial and 23 17 6 future industrial

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Table 3: Kalbarri - development status of land

Capable of Total Developed (ha) substantial further development (ha) Residential 274 145 129 Future residential 174 0 174 Residential and 448 145 303 future residential Rural residential 66 53 13 Future rural residential 0 0 0 Rural residential and 66 53 13 future rural residential Rural smallholdings 0 0 0 Future rural smallholdings 0 0 0 Rural smallholdings and 0 0 0 future rural smallholdings Commercial 28 22 6 Future commercial 0 0 0 Commercial and 28 22 6 future commercial Industrial 43 14 29 Future industrial 17 0 17 Industrial and 60 14 46 future industrial

Department of Planning 15 February 2016 Central Regions Land Capacity Analysis Shire of Northampton

Table 4: Horrocks - development status of land

Capable of Total Developed (ha) substantial further development (ha) Residential 18 11 7 Future residential 75 0 75 Residential and 93 11 82 future residential Rural residential 0 0 0 Future rural residential 81 0 81 Rural residential and 81 0 81 future rural residential Rural smallholdings 0 0 0 Future rural smallholdings 50 0 50 Rural smallholdings and 50 0 50 future rural smallholdings Commercial 8 4 4 Future commercial 0 0 0 Commercial and 8 4 4 future commercial Industrial 0 0 0 Future industrial 0 0 0 Industrial and 0 0 0 future industrial

Department of Planning 16 February 2016 Central Regions Land Capacity Analysis Shire of Northampton

Table 5: Port Gregory - development status of land

Capable of Total Developed (ha) substantial further development (ha) Residential 7 7 0 Future residential 0 0 0 Residential and 7 7 0 future residential Rural residential 0 0 0 Future rural residential 0 0 0 Rural residential and 0 0 0 future rural residential Rural smallholdings 0 0 0 Future rural smallholdings 0 0 0 Rural smallholdings and 0 0 0 future rural smallholdings Commercial 0.5 0.5 0 Future commercial 1 0 1 Commercial and 1.5 0.5 1 future commercial Industrial 0 0 0 Future industrial 0 0 0 Industrial and 0 0 0 future industrial

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Table 6: Nabawa and Nanson surrounds including Isseka (part - Shire of Northampton) - development status of land

Capable of Total Developed (ha) substantial further development (ha) Residential 0 0 0 Future residential 0 0 0 Residential and 0 0 0 future residential Rural residential 119 119 0 Future rural residential 0 0 0 Rural residential and 119 119 0 future rural residential Rural smallholdings 0 0 0 Future rural smallholdings 3,563 0 3,563 Rural smallholdings and 3,563 0 3,563 future rural smallholdings Commercial 0 0 0 Future commercial 0 0 0 Commercial and 0 0 0 future commercial Industrial 0 0 0 Future industrial 0 0 0 Industrial and 0 0 0 future industrial

Department of Planning 18 February 2016 Central Regions Land Capacity Analysis Shire of Northampton

3. Capacity analysis

The assessment of the development status of A capacity analysis for commercial and industrial current and future land uses enables a broad-level lands necessarily requires assumptions to be capacity analysis of the residential development made on employment density. There are currently potential of land within the Shire of Northampton. limitations in the available data required in order The Department of Planning has prepared such an to make reasonable assumptions in this regard. In analysis that: particular, relatively small statistical sample sizes – something that is prevalent in regional areas – • estimates the potential additional compromise the reliability of using the available population yield of current and future data for such an application. It is considered residential, rural residential and rural that further investigation is required to ascertain smallholdings lands for each relevant representative rates of employment density for settlement; and commercial and industrial lands in regional areas, and accordingly a capacity analysis of commercial • considers possible implications with regard and industrial lands is not included in this paper at to the local government area’s residential this stage. land situation in the context of the Western Australia Tomorrow 2026 population forecasts. 3.1 Potential capacity of residential, With respect to this, the tables in section 3.1 rural residential and rural summarise the estimated additional capacity of smallholdings lands each applicable land-use category for relevant settlements within the Shire of Northampton. For residential, rural residential and rural Further analysis is presented in section 3.2 that smallholdings land uses, potential capacity relates this information to the Western Australia has been calculated according to scenarios that Tomorrow 2026 population forecasts. assume different average development densities that are applicable to each of those land uses. In interpreting the outputs of the analysis, it Potential additional lot and population yields have is important to note that additional capacity is been estimated for each respective current and assumed to be accommodated exclusively in areas future land use category as they relate to each that are currently considered as being capable relevant settlement in the Shire of Northampton. of substantial further development. This means that the estimates generally do not account for Table 7 presents the total potential additional lot possible land capacity increases due to infill and/ and population yields for all relevant settlements or redevelopment of existing developed areas, across the local government area. and from this perspective are considered broad in nature and is likely to underestimate the potential Tables 8 to 12 present the potential additional lot overall capacity. and population yields for individual settlements relevant to this analysis. Please note that ‘relevant settlements’ are considered to be those extents that are mapped (Note: Table 7 consolidates all data from Tables and contain the applicable land uses subject to 8 to 12, and essentially represents a set of total analysis. figures for the entire local government area.)

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Table 7: Shire of Northampton - estimated capacity of residential, rural residential and rural smallholdings lands deemed capable of substantial further development in relevant settlements

Estimated capacity of residential, rural residential and rural smallholdings Estimated lands deemed capable of substantial further development potential Average population Relevant land-use category/ density / Potential lot yield from Area (ha) ies average lot yield1 additional size lots2 R10 1,463 3,658 Residential 225 R20 2,925 7,313 R30 4,388 10,970 R10 1,658 4,145 Future residential 255 R20 3,315 8,288 R30 4,973 12,433 R10 3,121 7,803 Residential and 480 R20 6,240 15,601 future residential R30 9,361 23,403 1 ha 41 103 Rural residential 55 2 ha 21 53 4 ha 10 25 1 ha 148 370 Future rural residential 197 2 ha 74 185 4 ha 37 93 1 ha 189 473 Rural residential and 252 2 ha 95 238 future rural residential 4 ha 47 118 8 ha 0 0 Rural smallholdings 0 20 ha 0 0 40 ha 0 0 8 ha 503 1,258 Future rural smallholdings 5,362 20 ha 201 503 40 ha 101 253 8 ha 503 1,258 Rural smallholdings and 5,362 20 ha 201 503 future rural smallholdings 40 ha 101 253

1 For residential land, the 35 per cent of land necessary to support land requirements for public open space and streets (Liveable Neighbourhoods, 2007) has been factored into these figures. For rural residential and rural smallholdings lands, a 25 per cent allowance from gross land areas has been applied to account for the relevant land requirements to support development for these particular land uses. 2 The population yield per dwelling is calculated at 2.5 people per dwelling unit (average people per household for the Mid West SA3 – Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2011 Census).

Department of Planning 20 February 2016 Central Regions Land Capacity Analysis Shire of Northampton

Table 8: Northampton - estimated capacity of residential, rural residential and rural smallholdings lands deemed capable of substantial further development

Estimated capacity of residential, rural residential and rural smallholdings Estimated lands deemed capable of substantial further development potential Average population Relevant land-use category/ density / Potential lot yield from Area (ha) ies average lot yield1 additional size lots2 R10 579 1,448 Residential 89 R20 1,157 2,893 R30 1,736 4,340 R10 39 98 Future residential 6 R20 78 195 R30 117 293 R10 618 1,546 Residential and 95 R20 1,235 3,088 future residential R30 1,853 4,633 1 ha 32 80 Rural residential 42 2 ha 16 40 4 ha 8 20 1 ha 87 218 Future rural residential 116 2 ha 44 110 4 ha 22 55 1 ha 119 298 Rural residential and 158 2 ha 60 150 future rural residential 4 ha 30 75 8 ha 0 0 Rural smallholdings 0 20 ha 0 0 40 ha 0 0 8 ha 164 410 Future rural smallholdings 1,749 20 ha 66 165 40 ha 33 83 8 ha 164 410 Rural smallholdings and 1,749 20 ha 66 165 future rural smallholdings 40 ha 33 83

Department of Planning 21 February 2016 Central Regions Land Capacity Analysis Shire of Northampton

Table 9: Kalbarri - estimated capacity of residential, rural residential and rural smallholdings lands deemed capable of substantial further development

Estimated capacity of residential, rural residential and rural smallholdings Estimated lands deemed capable of substantial further development potential Average population Relevant land-use category/ density / Potential lot yield from Area (ha) ies average lot yield1 additional size lots2 R10 839 2,098 Residential 129 R20 1,677 4,193 R30 2,516 6,290 R10 1,131 2,828 Future residential 174 R20 2,262 5,655 R30 3,393 8,483 R10 1,970 4,926 Residential and 303 R20 3,939 9,848 future residential R30 5,909 14,773 1 ha 10 25 Rural residential 13 2 ha 5 13 4 ha 2 5 1 ha 0 0 Future rural residential 0 2 ha 0 0 4 ha 0 0 1 ha 10 25 Rural residential and 13 2 ha 5 13 future rural residential 4 ha 2 5 8 ha 0 0 Rural smallholdings 0 20 ha 0 0 40 ha 0 0 8 ha 0 0 Future rural smallholdings 0 20 ha 0 0 40 ha 0 0 8 ha 0 0 Rural smallholdings and 0 20 ha 0 0 future rural smallholdings 40 ha 0 0

Department of Planning 22 February 2016 Central Regions Land Capacity Analysis Shire of Northampton

Table 10: Horrocks - estimated capacity of residential, rural residential and rural smallholdings lands deemed capable of substantial further development

Estimated capacity of residential, rural residential and rural smallholdings Estimated lands deemed capable of substantial further development potential Average population Relevant land-use category/ density / Potential lot yield from Area (ha) ies average lot yield1 additional size lots2 R10 46 115 Residential 7 R20 91 228 R30 137 343 R10 488 1,220 Future residential 75 R20 975 2,438 R30 1,463 3,658 R10 534 1,335 Residential and 82 R20 1,066 2,666 future residential R30 1,600 4,001 1 ha 0 0 Rural residential 0 2 ha 0 0 4 ha 0 0 1 ha 61 153 Future rural residential 81 2 ha 30 75 4 ha 15 38 1 ha 61 153 Rural residential and 81 2 ha 30 75 future rural residential 4 ha 15 38 8 ha 0 0 Rural smallholdings 0 20 ha 0 0 40 ha 0 0 8 ha 5 13 Future rural smallholdings 50 20 ha 2 5 40 ha 1 3 8 ha 5 13 Rural smallholdings and 50 20 ha 2 5 future rural smallholdings 40 ha 1 3

Department of Planning 23 February 2016 Central Regions Land Capacity Analysis Shire of Northampton

Table 11: Port Gregory - estimated capacity of residential, rural residential and rural smallholdings lands deemed capable of substantial further development

Estimated capacity of residential, rural residential and rural smallholdings Estimated lands deemed capable of substantial further development potential Average population Relevant land-use category/ density / Potential lot yield from Area (ha) ies average lot yield1 additional size lots2 R10 0 0 Residential 0 R20 0 0 R30 0 0 R10 0 0 Future residential 0 R20 0 0 R30 0 0 R10 0 0 Residential and 0 R20 0 0 future residential R30 0 0 1 ha 0 0 Rural residential 0 2 ha 0 0 4 ha 0 0 1 ha 0 0 Future rural residential 0 2 ha 0 0 4 ha 0 0 1 ha 0 0 Rural residential and 0 2 ha 0 0 future rural residential 4 ha 0 0 8 ha 0 0 Rural smallholdings 0 20 ha 0 0 40 ha 0 0 8 ha 0 0 Future rural smallholdings 0 20 ha 0 0 40 ha 0 0 8 ha 0 0 Rural smallholdings and 0 20 ha 0 0 future rural smallholdings 40 ha 0 0

Department of Planning 24 February 2016 Central Regions Land Capacity Analysis Shire of Northampton

Table 12: Nabawa and Nanson surrounds including Isseka (part - Shire of Northampton) - estimated capacity of residential, rural residential and rural smallholdings lands deemed capable of substantial further development

Estimated capacity of residential, rural residential and rural smallholdings Estimated lands deemed capable of substantial further development potential Average population Relevant land-use category/ density / Potential lot yield from Area (ha) ies average lot yield1 additional size lots2 R10 0 0 Residential 0 R20 0 0 R30 0 0 R10 0 0 Future residential 0 R20 0 0 R30 0 0 R10 0 0 Residential and 0 R20 0 0 future residential R30 0 0 1 ha 0 0 Rural residential 0 2 ha 0 0 4 ha 0 0 1 ha 0 0 Future rural residential 0 2 ha 0 0 4 ha 0 0 1 ha 0 0 Rural residential and 0 2 ha 0 0 future rural residential 4 ha 0 0 8 ha 0 0 Rural smallholdings 0 20 ha 0 0 40 ha 0 0 8 ha 334 835 Future rural smallholdings 3,563 20 ha 134 335 40 ha 67 168 8 ha 334 835 Rural smallholdings and 3,563 20 ha 134 335 future rural smallholdings 40 ha 67 168

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Based on the potential population yield calculations These figures assume that all additional population in Table 7, estimated total population figures for in the local government area is accommodated on the Shire of Northampton are provided for low, residential, rural residential and rural smallholdings medium and high density development scenarios, lands deemed capable of substantial further which are presented in Table 13. Within each development within the settlements considered. scenario, two subsets are considered:

• ‘A’ considers the potential additional population yield of all residential, rural residential and rural smallholdings land capable of further development at the average density or lot sizes attributable to that particular scenario; and

• ‘B’ considers the potential additional population yield of all residential, future residential, rural residential, future rural residential, rural smallholdings and future rural smallholdings land capable of further development at the average density or lot sizes attributable to that particular scenario.

Table 13: Shire of Northampton - estimated potential population capacity

Estimated Scenario1 potential Estimated Current population (average density of residential land / average total population2 yield from lot size of rural residential land / average lot population4 size of rural smallholdings land) additional lots3 1. Low density scenario 1A 3,296 3,683 6,979 (R10 / 4 ha / 40 ha) 1B 3,296 8,174 11,470 2. Medium density scenario 2A 3,296 7,366 10,662 (R20 / 2 ha / 20 ha) 2B 3,296 16,342 19,638 3. High density scenario 3A 3,296 11,073 14,369 (R30 / 1 ha / 8 ha) 3B 3,296 25,134 28,430

1 Scenarios consider the estimated potential population capacity of the Shire of Northampton through estimating the potential additional population capacity of land within all relevant settlements with a residential land use that has been deemed capable of substantial further development. 2 Shire of Northampton 2014 Preliminary Estimated Residential Population (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 3218.0 – Regional Population Growth 2013-14). 3 As per the relevant assumptions as described for Table 7. 4 The ‘estimated total population’ is the sum of the ‘current population’ and the ‘estimated potential population yield from additional lots’ column.

Department of Planning 26 February 2016 Central Regions Land Capacity Analysis Shire of Northampton

3.2 Comparison of potential capacity 3.2.1 Estimated additional residential land estimates with the Western Australia requirements to accommodate population Tomorrow 2026 population forecasts forecasts

Western Australia Tomorrow (Western Australian Table 15 presents estimates for the amount Planning Commission, 2015) contains population of residential land that would be required to forecasts produced by the State Demographer and accommodate the additional population for each of are considered to be the State’s official population the population forecasts. Estimates are presented forecasts. according to three different average densities of residential development, being R10, R20 and R30. Table 14 presents the Western Australia Tomorrow 2026 population forecasts for the Shire of These estimates are compared to the total of Northampton. For further information on these all current residential and future residential forecasts, please refer to http://www.planning. land identified in relevant Shire of Northampton wa.gov.au/publications/6194.asp. settlements as being capable of substantial further development. The figures under the ‘surplus’ The figures in the ‘additional population’ column column indicate the magnitude of the potential are the difference between the 2026 forecast surplus of residential land from the extents population and the Australian Bureau of Statistics currently identified once the additional forecast 2014 Preliminary Estimated Residential Population population has been allowed for. A negative figure for the Shire of Northampton (3,296). in this column indicates a shortfall in the identified areas of residential lands with respect to that Significantly, these forecasts provide a point of required to accommodate the additional population comparison for interpreting the potential capacities from the relevant forecast. of residential land as determined through this analysis. The estimates in Table 15 assume:

• all population growth occurs on residential and future residential land that has been identified as being capable of substantial Table 14: Shire of Northampton - Western future development in this analysis. Australia Tomorrow 2026 population To keep the calculations relatively forecasts (WAPC, 2015) straightforward, they do not consider additional population being accommodated on rural residential or rural smallholdings 2026 WA Tomorrow Additional lands, nor do they take into account forecast forecast bands population potential increases in population occurring population due to infill development. They therefore Band A 3,570 274 likely overestimate residential land Band B 3,690 394 requirements; Band C 3,760 464 • a 35 per cent allowance from gross land Band D 3,840 544 areas for various requirements to support Band E 3,950 654 development (e.g. public open space, streets, other infrastructure); and

• the number of people per dwelling remains constant.

Department of Planning 27 February 2016 Central Regions Land Capacity Analysis Shire of Northampton

Based on the current extents of zoned residential Please note that this component of the analysis land and land identified for future residential only considers the local government as a whole purposes, this analysis suggests that there is a as opposed to each individual settlement. This is sufficient amount of land capable of substantial primarily due to the alignment of available data further development to cater for the population inputs at this geographic scale. growth anticipated in the Western Australia Tomorrow 2026 population forecasts for the Shire of Northampton.

Table 15: Shire of Northampton - estimated additional residential land requirements to accommodate population forecasts

Residential1

R10 average density R20 average density R30 average density Current and future land capable of Est. land Est. land Est. land WA Tomorrow Additional substantial required required required forecast bands population further de- to accom. Surplus to accom. Surplus to accom. Surplus 4 4 4 velopment additional (ha) additional (ha) additional (ha) (ha)2 population population population (ha)3 (ha)3 (ha)3

Band A 274 480 17 463 8 472 6 474 Band B 394 480 24 456 12 468 8 472 Band C 464 480 29 451 14 466 10 470 Band D 544 480 33 447 17 463 11 469 Band E 654 480 40 440 20 460 13 467

1 These estimates assume that all population growth occurs on residential and future residential land that has been identified as being capable of substantial future development in this analysis.To keep the calculations relatively straightforward, they do not consider additional population being accommodated on rural residential or rural smallholdings lands, nor do they take into account potential increases in population occurring due to infill development. The estimates are therefore likely to overestimate residential land requirements. 2 Total area of current and future residential lands capable of substantial further development for entire local government area as per relevant figures from Table 1. 3 A 35 per cent allowance from gross land areas to support land requirements for public open space and streets (Liveable Neighbourhoods, 2007) and a population yield per dwelling of 2.5 people per dwelling unit (average people per household for the Mid West SA3 – ABS 2011 Census) have been factored into the estimated areas of residential land required to accommodate forecast additional populations. 4 A positive figure in this column indicates that the additional population under the relevant population forecast should be able to be accommodated within the areas of residential and future residential land currently identified, without additional residential land being required. A negative figure represents the shortfall in the identified areas of residential lands with respect to that required to accommodate the additional population.

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