08 SMALL ISLANDS #51 Kyoto Protocol – an exploitative deal? 14 CLIMATE NEGOTIATIONS Doubt and desperation, but not defeat 18 CLIMATE VARIABILITY Forecasting the climate of the Pacific

GlobalA bulletin warming on climate and theand third development world Issue 52 Issue December 51 April 2003 2004

The world’sworld’s ffragileragile islands Page 3 Issue 51 April 2004 www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo

03 The world’s fragile islands Agnès Sinaï argues that the Kyoto Protocol seems an exploitative deal

08 The Kyoto Protocol – what next? Lisa Schipper reports on the outcome of COP9

14 Adaptation Day at COP9 Hannah Reid and Saleemul Huq describe Adaptation Day at COP9

18 Island climate update Ashmita Gosai, Penehuro Lefale and Jim Salinger describe the highly successful seasonal climate bulletin

07 News 12 Conferences 23 Global demand destroys rain forest 25 Adaptation research – new insights

Cover photo: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA is part of the DoC) Low-lying coral atolls, such as this one in the Maldives, are at serious risk due to sea-level rise. Photo: Martin Ferm, IVL 2 Tiempo Issue 51 April 2004 The world’s fragile islands

Agnès Sinaï argues that, from the low-lying point of view of Pacific islanders or circumpolar-dwelling Inuit, the Kyoto Protocol seems an exploitative deal.

ome 600 idyllic islands in the South with the international community to speed from the Caribbean to the Pacific via the Med- Pacific make up Micronesia; perhaps up the release of promised funds for vulner- iterranean and the South China Seas. All are not so idyllic any more, as in recent able countries to protect themselves from the on the front line because of the consequences years half of the 150,000 inhabitants effects of global warming. of climate change. have had their houses damaged or The demands of the Alliance of Small Is- The Maldives are preparing for the worst. destroyed by storms more frequent land States (aosis) are clear: urgent action to Work has begun on an artificial island: Hul- and violent than before. Sea levels safeguard food resources, build desalination humale is being built two metres above sea S rose in the region through the second half plants and dykes and develop solar energy. level, 20 minutes from the archipelago’s of the 20th century, and this, linked with Since its creation in 1994, aosis has been a overcrowded capital, Malé; it should even- exceptionally high tides and unpredictable highly active lobby of 43 tiny island nations tually be home to 100,000 people. It is sur- rain, exacerbated the intensity of the storms. rounded by coral reefs, bathed in the warm As coastal erosion increases, salt creeps into MAIN POINTS currents that flow around the islands. But the water table and ruins plantations, while  Agnès Sinaï those in the North the reefs are under serious threat from rising rising temperatures nurture parasites that discusses the Kyoto who already pollute sea levels, surface water temperatures and attack copra plants. Protocol from the heavily and those in violent storms, as successive reports from the Joseph Komo, a member of the official low-lying perspective the South who want Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of Pacific islanders or to do the same. Micronesian delegation to the Ninth Con- (ipcc) have confirmed. circumpolar-dwelling  It is concluded ference of the Parties to the United Nations Inuit. that smaller south- The islanders’ demands are seconded by an- Framework Convention on Climate Change  She observes ern nations may have other vulnerable group: the Inuit Circumpo- (unfccc) in Milan, Italy, December 2003, says: that the Protocol to find their own lar Conference, which represents 155,000 “We are the first people to die as a direct result appears an exploita- systems for sustaina- Inuits from Canada, Alaska, Greenland and of climate change”. He went to Milan to plead tive deal between ble development. Russia. Its president, Sheila Watt-Cloutier,

www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo 3 used the Milan conference to announce In- recycle three gigatonnes of carbon a year, the Parties to the unfccc in Delhi, the Indian uit Circumpolar Conference plans to bring the sustainable average is estimated at half environment minister, T R Balu, provoked a a legal action before the un Commission a tonne of greenhouse gas a year for each row by refusing to talk of reductions targets on Human Rights. The Conference accuses person worldwide. The average resident of that might apply to countries like India. The countries that have refused to sign the Kyoto Burkina Faso could increase his or her pro- small island states felt betrayed by this in- Protocol – United States, Russia and Australia duction of greenhouse gases fivefold from a transigence. – of violating human rights by imperilling current 100 kg. A citizen of the United States The disparity between North and South the ancestral ways of life of the North Pole’s ought to pollute ten times less than the cur- is exacerbated by disagreements between aboriginal people. rent average of 5,000 kg a year. Southern countries. The Group of 77 repre- “Today, the earth is changing under our Clearly, the polluting countries are al- sents diverse interests often diametrically feet”, says Watt-Cloutier. Canadian clima- tologists are predicting the unthinkable: If some of the more alarming predictions are 50 years from now, the northwest passage ‘acc ‘ urate, there would be a meteorological linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans via the Northern Canadian islands will be com- catastrophe in the name of equality. pletely ice-free in summer. ’’ The inhabitants of the frozen north are ready too heavily industrialized to have any opposed over environmental concerns. The in the same boat as the Micronesians of the hope of meeting a target of equal pollution great deforesters, China and Brazil, and tropics, a reminder that climate disturbances around the globe even without taking past the Opec member states, generally oppose affect the entire global system. The experts emissions into account. And emissions from regulation. The Opec states even demand warn that, after thermal expansion, the melt- large, rapidly developing countries such as financial compensation for potential losses ing of glaciers and ice caps is likely to be one India, China, Brazil and Saudi Arabia will in oil revenue in the event of a reduction in of the main causes of rises in sea level in the increase substantially over the next few years. fossil fuel use. On the other side are the most 21st century. From the poles to the Maldives, It is predicted that their emissions will equal vulnerable countries, such as Mozambique, every area of our biosphere is linked, along those of the industrialized countries by 2050. which suffered severe flooding in 2000, and with all the creatures that live in it. But the Their development may reduce the discrep- the Pacific micro-states, which have acquired areas most vulnerable to climate change are ancy between the rich and poor world, but political weight by turning themselves into on the fringes of the industrialized world, it defies environmental concerns. If some symbols. an injustice worsened by the fact that these of the ipcc’s more alarming predictions are With multilateralism stalled, mostly be- regions’ contribution to global warming is accurate, there would be a meteorological cause of United States isolationism, the fight minimal, while that of the Northern indus- catastrophe in the name of equality. against climate change begins to look like an trialized countries is massive. Yet countries such as China and India do international political sham. The Kyoto Pro- From a logical mathematical perspective, not want to consider emission reductions un- tocol has been buried under casuistry from each individual should be entitled to an equal til the industrialized countries reduce their mostly Western ‘experts’. It has been said share in our ecosystem. As the biosphere can own pollution. At the 2002 Conference of that these interminable talking shops keep

4 Tiempo Issue 51 April 2004 the discussion process alive and that even a sham is better than nothing. The South South North Project The Protocol is responsible for an impor- tant innovation: economic mechanisms that put a price on the tonne of carbon emissions. Thanks to these, the atmosphere is no longer free, but can be traded on the international market. Theoretically all we need to do is NETWORKING through the climate window. Brazil, South ensure that the rarity and fragility of this Africa, Bangladesh and Indonesia face commodity is reflected in its price. The South South North Project is similar challenges in being ready to seize The Clean Development Mechanism (cdm) a network aimed at helping public such opportunities. is the only tool of North/South cooperation and private stakeholders develop The South South North Project can help proposed by the Kyoto Protocol. It allows for the necessary confidence for build capacity in this field for host govern- industrialized countries to get additional dealing effectively with the Clean ments, cdm project owners, their technical emissions rights by helping reduce pollution Development Mechanism. intermediaries and project beneficiaries. in Southern countries. Governments, busi- It can help decision-making authorities to nesses and other organizations in the North The Project consists of organizations, re- handle applications for cdm approval with provide funding and expertise for projects search institutions and consultants grou- objectivity. in the South that aim to reduce pollution ped into one developmental organization. The Project fosters capacity by providing through the use of environmentally-friendly It operates in Brazil, South Africa, Bangla- training, development facilitation services technology, such as solar and water power, desh and Indonesia. The South South North and technical support as well as by ensur- cogeneration plants and cleaner fuels. The Project website can be found at www. ing a flow of information and the forging emissions they helped prevent abroad are southsouthnorth.org. of links between the countries in which it then added to their own rights. The Kyoto Protocol mechanisms, particu- operates. The 2003 Conference of the Parties in Milan larly the Clean Development Mechanism The South South North Project enhanc- made much of the advantages these cdm (cdm), are as yet relatively untested. The es cooperation between countries of the schemes might have for southern countries. South South North Project seeks to add to South, so-called ‘developing countries’. It Yet from a geopolitical perspective the idea is the international body of knowledge on is a uniquely Southern drive to promote based on a view of these countries as passive the cdm by developing capacity through the capacity in countries of the South to seize recipients of a system designed to free emis- actual experience of developing a number the initiative in the climate arena. This sions credits for industrialized countries – as of cdm projects. The cdm offers an opportu- ‘South-South’ link is then matched with the many as their investors want. The only moti- nity to promote sustainable development ‘North’ link: to the investment community vation for these investors is the value, traded and to direct the flow of capital, expertise and the project’s partners in the developed in carbon dioxide equivalents, of the avoided and technology into developing economies world. ‡ emissions. ª

www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo 5 The cdm is unlikely to affect Micronesians carry out cdm projects that will benefit local ABOUT THE AUTHOR or Inuit, since they pollute too little to be of people by facilitating deserving ecological Agnès Sinaï is a freelance any interest to investors looking for credits. development ventures appropriate to their journalist. She is co-author, But the big developing countries have much context, for example: with Yves Cochet, of Sauver la to gain from the scheme and it was the • in Dhaka, Bangladesh, it is helping to build Terre (Fayard, Paris 2003) possibility of attracting investment through 2,000 electric minivans for public trans- the cdm that ultimately persuaded China to port, and setting up solar powered plants ratify the Kyoto Protocol, which it did in 2002. in more isolated areas of Bangladesh; CONTACT Canada has been its most active partner, • a project in South Africa provides both in-  Agnès Sinaï, 107 rue Championnet, financing carbon sequestration projects, so- sulation and solar-powered water heaters 75018 Paris, France lar and micro-hydraulic power and clean-up to homes in a deprived area of Cape Town; Email [email protected] schemes for coal-fired power stations. • in Brazil, it generates biodiesel out of a Rio The value of avoided emissions is inher- rubbish dump; and, FURTHER INFORMATION ently hard to work out, the more so in coun- • in Yogyakarta, Indonesia, it replaces old  In the Tiempo Cyberlibrary: A list of tries such as China and Brazil, which are buses with new ones that run on clean small island theme sites can be found at waiting for a special climate change fund to fuel. www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo/floor0/theme/ cover the costs of calculating their emissions. The plan is for projects like these all over t3637web.htm With a derisory budget of us$50m a year, this the South, proving that poorer countries are  On the Web: The latest assessment of fund, managed by the Global Environmental capable of moving straight into no-regrets the climate negotiations can be found at Facility, may be active from 2005. Its primary development with lasting, non-polluting Linkages, www.iisd.ca/process/climate_ atm.htm objective is to assist the most threatened equipment. Yet the cdm principle is as much  Newswatch: For weekly news and more countries to adapt to climate change. a stumbling block as a help for such initia- on the climate negotiations, related issues Micronesians and Inuit will just have to tives, as it favours the countries that pollute and weather events worldwide, visit Tiempo muddle through, unless they manage to get more. Since greenhouse gas emissions in Newswatch, www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo/ involved with the South South North Project, Bangladesh are very low – less than one car for newswatch/ one of the most encouraging recent initia- every 1,000 inhabitants – there is no pressure tives to have emerged from climate politics. to reduce emissions and Bangladesh can’t get ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This is a network of organizations, research credits from the reductions it does make. This article was originally published in Le institutions, lawyers and consultants from The Kyoto Protocol is a prefabricated idea Monde diplomatique and was translated South Africa, Indonesia, Bangladesh and Bra- designed to benefit Northern industrialized from the French by Gulliver Cragg. It is re- zil, who have come together to promote an countries and gas-guzzling Southern giants. produced by permission of the author. ecologically sustainable vision of develop- If our biosphere is to survive, it could be up ment and put the Kyoto Protocol’s mecha- to the smaller Southern countries to find nisms to good use (see box on page 5). alternative systems for sustainable develop- The South South North Project hopes to ment. ‡

6 Tiempo Issue 51 April 2004 NEWS CORAL REEFS SOMALIA RUSSIA OZONE AFRICA “Coral reefs are one Food emergency “Europe holds the The Bush adminis- The FAO has urged of the first major threatens Somalia, trump card, and it tration plans to in- African countries NEWS casualties of climate according to a mul- can save Kyoto if it crease production of that are prone to change”, says Pro- tilateral report from wants to”, claims methyl bromide, an drought to adopt fessor Ove Hoegh- the United Nations, Jonathan Lash, head ozone depleter and measures to lessen Guldberg. European Union and of the World Re- greenhouse gas. the risks associated the United States. sources Institute. with rain-dependent He calls for massive re- The United States is agriculture. ductions in emissions to Parts of Somalia face the The survival of the Kyoto seeking an exemption save “these beautiful eco- worst period of drought in Protocol rests on Russia from the controls set by The FAO Regional Con- systems.” 30 years, with more than ratifying. Lash argues the Montreal Protocol, the ference for Africa, held in A new World Wildlife 200,000 people facing food that Europe must offer treaty intended to protect March 2004, recognized Fund (WWF) report shortages and starvation. diplomatic and economic the ozone layer. The the critical part that irri- charts the implications of Around 10 per cent of the gains to ensure that a chemical should largely gation must play in the climate change for the population are in crisis. positive decision is made, be phased out by 2005. continent’s food produc- Great Barrier Reef off Rainfall has been be- calling for “a signal from “This is the first time tion. Only three per cent Australia. It warns that low normal for several 10 Downing Street” to any country has tried to of Africa’s arable land is coral populations could years and pastoralists in other European politi- reverse the phase-out and under irrigation. collapse by 2100. the worst-affected areas cians. increase production of an South African Minister Holding the degree of have lost up to four-fifths A range of possibilities ozone-destroying chemi- Thoko Didiza reported the global warming to less of their livestock. “The exists. Europe could allow cal”, said David Doniger meeting had resolved to than two degrees Celsius situation is fragile”, Russia to join the World of the Natural Resources give top priority to the de- would assist the recovery warned Robert McCarthy, Trade Organisation, a Defense Council. “The velopment of the fertilizer of the Great Barrier Reef, UNICEF Somalia Emer- move it currently opposes. Bush administration is industry.The use of ferti- according to both WWF gency Officer. Guarantees of investment putting Americans’ lizer in sub-Saharan Afri- and the Intergovernmental health at risk by catering ca is only 9 kg/ha com- Read more: in the energy sector could Panel on Climate Change. to big chemical and agri- pared to 100 kg/ha in south http://allafrica.com/ be given. Debt reductions might be traded for pollu- business companies.” Asia and 206 kg/ha in the Read more: stories/200402280003.html industrialized countries. www.wwf.org.au/News_ www.reliefweb.int/w/rwb. tion control. Read more: and_information/News_ nsf/0/b436c57ec39077c6852 Read more: www.commondreams.org/ Read more: room/viewnews. 56e14005aa470?OpenDocu http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/ news2004/0304-02.htm http://allafrica.com/ php?news_id=65 ment sci/tech/3410519.stm stories/200403080887.html

www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo 7 The Kyoto Protocol – what next?

Lisa Schipper reports on the outcome of the Ninth Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework for Climate Change.

n December 2003, Parties to the United on guidance for the operation of the Least reinterpretations, renegotiations and disa- Nations Framework Convention on Cli- Developed Countries (ldc) Fund and the Spe- greements over already agreed text. mate Change (unfccc) once again gath- cial Climate Change Fund (sccf), this did A sophisticated and participatory dialogue ered for their annual Conference of the not prevent a subdued, if slightly desperate, on actions to respond to climate change took Parties (cop). This ninth session was held atmosphere at the meeting. Negotiations on place within the parallel world of side-events. in Milan, Italy, and attracted over 5000 several issues became entangled in old de- These events involved non-governmental or- participants. bates involving North-South conflicts. Nu- ganizations, academics, indigenous peoples, I The agendas were full, but the meeting had merous contact groups heard delegates at- intergovernmental agencies and industry been expected to be low-key and straight- tempting to return to the Marrakech Accords groups. Their dialogue made it clear that ac- forward up to a few weeks before its open- and revisit the agreed provisions, suggesting tion is on-going despite the lack of progress ing. What was on offer was anything but. evident in the negotiating rooms. However, Exhausted negotiators sat through all-night MAIN POINTS the negotiations process must advance if sessions of informal consultations on what  Lisa Schipper doubt and despera- many of the provisions that are discussed became the most pressing issue at the Con- discusses the latest tion, though not in side-events, such as the Protocol’s Clean ference – that of funding. Despite the (often phase of the climate defeat. Development Mechanism, are to become a unintentional) flow of information through negotiations, held in  It is concluded political reality. This report explores the out- Milan, Italy, in that alternative the thin paper walls of the over-heated meet- comes at cop9 and contemplates the future of December 2003. approaches may have ing rooms of the maze-like conference centre, the international climate regime.  She reports that to be sought if the consensus seemed difficult to achieve. the failure of Russia Protocol commit- Challenges at COP9 Although there was success in completing to ratify the Kyoto ments cannot be negotiations under the 1998 Buenos Aires Protocol to the implemented in time. The fact that the momentum from cop6 Part Plan of Action (bapa) as well as agreeing climate treaty led to II in Bonn persisted at Marrakech in 2001, and

8 Tiempo Issue 51 April 2004 the dynamism from the World Summit on Mechanism – the final outstanding bapa is- sessional consultations to try to resolve the Sustainable Development provided energy sue. Another issue to be dealt with was that outstanding issues. Unresolved issues were for cop8 in Delhi in 2002, it was reasonable the unfccc Secretariat’s 2004–5 budget had addressed relatively quickly in a friendly at- to expect that cop9 would be a low-key meet- exploded at the eighteenth Subsidiary Bod- mosphere amongst delegates who have come ing. ies (sb1b) session in June 2003 and this was to know each other well after working on the Complications began to appear when, in expected to generate much discussion. issues since at least 1998. It has been decided September 2003 a World Climate Change Observers were also aware that guidance that 1989 be designated as the reference year Conference was held in Moscow. The con- for the operation of the Special Climate for reforestation activities. ference was heavily supported by so-called Change Fund could generate some contro- On the matter of accounting for positive ‘climate-sceptics’ who hold that the scientific versy as it had already done so at sb1b. The is- leakage, the Parties agreed to exclude this. evidence contains too many uncertainties sue of sinks in the Clean Development Mecha- Two types of definition for Certified Emis- for conclusions about climate change to be nism as well as budget issues were settled. sion Reduction (cers) units were identified: drawn. Discussions on the Special Climate Change the first, a long-term Certified Emission Re- Although the World Climate Change Con- Fund, however, proved difficult. The number duction unit (lcer) that expires at the end of ference was intended as a scientific confer- of contact group meetings scheduled for this, the crediting period for the project activity ence, its political message was clear: Russia and other ‘developing country issues’ proved and the second, a temporary Certified Emis- remains undecided as to whether or not they too few, and informal consultations, par- sion Reduction unit (tcer) that expires after will ratify the Protocol. In response to this, ticularly for discussing the funds, absorbed five years. cop9, in December, became a grander af- many hours. In the opening plenary from the In respect to ensuring that environmental fair than had been expected. The number of Subsidiary Body for Implementation it be- and socio-economic impacts be accounted ministers who participated in the high-level came clear that even the wording of agenda for in projects, the previous Appendix E from segment was on a par with the numbers who items was susceptible to attack. In fact, the sb1b was removed and a general list of cri- attended cop6 and side-events abounded. An controversy of these issues was probably un- teria for the Project Design Document was incorrectly reported statement from Russia derestimated. included instead. A decision on simplified saying that it would not ratify Kyoto which modalities and procedures for small-scale appeared toward the end of the first week Forests projects was postponed until cop10. caused consternation. Although the state- The Marrakech Accords had already agreed cop9 also addressed other forestry issues ment was played down, it became apparent that only afforestation and reforestation ac- relating to the work of the Intergovernmen- that Russia had made no formal decision yet tivities would be eligible under the Clean tal Panel on Climate Change (ipcc). It was of declaring its intention to ratify the Proto- Development Mechanism, but details on the agreed that work would continue at the col at cop9. definitions and modalities for including such twentieth session of the Subsidiary Body for In attending cop9, it was clear that the project activities for the first commitment Scientific and Technical Advice to be held in ‘largest’ issues on the agenda included the period were not set. June 2004. remaining discussion on afforestation and Delegates entered cop9 with a draft ne- Parties examined the ipcc report on Good reforestation under the Clean Development gotiating text and had participated in pre- Practice Guidance for land use, land-use

www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo 9 change and forestry (lulucf). They also dis- sue”. Then, a report tabled by the Secretariat full-cost basis. Annex I Parties were not keen cussed the issues of factoring out direct hu- containing steps taken by non-Annex I Par- to adopt this provision and fear that the man-induced changes in carbon stocks from ties to reduce their emissions was virulently actual implementation of this decision will the indirect and natural effects, along with opposed by developing countries. consequently be compromised. the ipcc report on forest degradation and Underlying both of these issues was a fear The final decision on the Special Climate devegetation of other vegetation types. by developing countries that this informa- Change Fund was also forwarded to the cop The Parties agreed for the Subsidiary Body tion, more frequently submitted and com- President. Negotiations under the Special Cli- for Scientific and Technological Advice to piled into clear tables, would indicate that mate Change Fund have been more difficult hear further views on degradation and de- first, some developing countries have consid- than those on the Least Developed Countries vegetation and on factoring out at sbsta20 erable emissions, and, second, that develop- Fund even though the final outcome may in June. It was agreed also to consider at ing countries are already undertaking steps well be less problematic. The negotiations this point the furthering of the common toward reducing these emissions. suffered due to internal problems in the reporting format tables in the Good Practice Their view is that with such information on negotiating blocks, where legal differences Guidance for reporting under the Protocol. the table for discussion, the call for develop- on a national level threatened to divide the On harvested wood products, Parties agreed ing countries to take on reduction commit- European Union. that this issue should be included in the ments is not far away. This fear was percep- The Special Climate Change Fund will sup- second, rather than the first, commitment tible in numerous other discussions as well, port the implementation of adaptation ac- period. This will also be considered further and could be described as a cross-cutting tivities outlined in national communications at sbsta20. concern of developing countries. Other ne- and National Adaptation Plans of Action gotiations during the years that the Buenos and will fund technology transfer activities. Developing country issues Aires Plan of Action dominated, had over- Regarding activities relating to economic di- Although forestry issues drew much atten- shadowed these fears, but with the setting of versification, these will be supported by the tion from delegates, it was the “developing rules for a second commitment period loom- Special Climate Change Fund in principle, country issues” – technology transfer, capac- ing, developing countries are once again as was set out in the Marrakech Accords, ity building, non-Annex I national commu- starting to feel the pressure. with further elaboration on activities, pro- nications, implementation of Decision 5/cp7, Guidance for the Least Developed Coun- grammes and measures to support this to be and particularly funding – that consumed the tries Fund may have been agreed, but numer- decided at cop10. majority of negotiating hours. ous participants questioned the robustness At the eighteenth Subsidiary Bodies ses- Non-Annex I national communications of the guidance. Informal negotiations on sion in June 2003 the issue of implementation was the first issue to spark upset and dis- this Fund were unsuccessful, and the Subsidi- of Decision 5/cp.7 had not moved far. This cord. In this discussion, the frequency of ary Body for Implementation decided to for- decision contains provisions on addressing submission of national communications was ward the issue directly to the cop President at the adverse effects of climate change and the contested. Developing countries opposed a the last minute. What was particularly con- issue of adaptation in vulnerable countries. more frequent submission rate as suggested tentious in this decision is the agreement for There was no further development on this by Annex I Parties and called this a “non-is- the Fund to support activities on an agreed at cop9. A draft decision is attached to the

10 Tiempo Issue 51 April 2004 Subsidiary Body for Implementation conclu- Buenos Aires Plan of Action was adopted. ABOUT THE AUTHOR sions and may be adopted at cop10. Argentina has already taken on voluntary  E Lisa Schipper is There is, however, a clear impasse here emission reductions, and with the issue of researching adaptation to for two related reasons. opec countries have non-Annex I commitments lurking, it will be climate change in developing essentially ‘hijacked’ the issue by creating a interesting to see whether the location of the countries in the School of procedural linkage with this and their de- Climate Conference will have any bearing on Development Studies and the mand for compensation from inadvertent this aspect of negotiations. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East impacts on developing countries by policies At the eighteenth session of the Subsidi- Anglia. She heads the team of writers and measures taken by Annex I Parties to re- ary Bodies there was much speculation as to providing climate coverage for the Earth duce greenhouse gas emissions. In particular, whether cop9 could become cop/mop1: that Negotiations Bulletin. this refers to how the fuel markets will be af- is, the first Conference of the Parties to a fully fected by a reduction in fossil fuel use and, ratified Kyoto Protocol. This turned out not to CONTACT hence, a reduction in demand. Annex I Parties be, and there was little talk of such prospects  E Lisa Schipper, School for Develop- oppose this proposal among other matters for cop10. ment Studies, University of East Anglia, partly because the opec group has tradition- Perhaps it is too early to tell, but every six- Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK ally opposed any reduction in greenhouse gas month inter-sessional period unfortunately Email: [email protected] emissions at all and therefore are happy with only makes clearer that time for meeting the no movement on the issue. Perhaps this is an Kyoto commitments within the first com- FURTHER INFORMATION attempt to eventually force other developing mitment period is growing shorter. If there  In the Tiempo Cyberlibrary: A list of countries to put enough pressure on the opec is no clear signal from Russia by cop10 it will sites providing coverage of the climate group to reverse their position; however, it is not be surprising if alternative approaches negotiations can be found at www.cru.uea. ac.uk/tiempo/floor0/theme/t25web.htm unclear whether such a tactic would work are sought.  On the Web: A full report on COP9, SBI- within an already turbulent negotiating It could be that all energies will be directed 19 and SBSTA19 can be found on the Earth group. What is clear is that movement on at the second commitment period instead, or Negotiations Bulletin website, www.iisd.ca/ adaptation may not occur before any decou- perhaps an altogether different framework linkages/climate/cop9/. An examination of pling takes place. Considering that adapta- will be designed. However, while academics the outcomes of COP9 in greater detail is tion has, since cop7 in 2001, become one of and non-governmental organizations may available through Tyndall Briefing Note No the most popular developing country issues, be thinking of such matters and possibilities, 11, www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/briefing_ it may very well be the case that we will see those involved directly in the unfccc proc- notes/note11.pdf new approaches to removing this procedural ess remain committed. Although doubt and  Newswatch: For weekly news and more link in the coming negotiation sessions. desperation may be sitting at the table, defeat on the climate negotiations, related issues and weather events worldwide, visit Tiempo certainly isn’t. ‡ Next steps Newswatch, www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo/ newswatch/ It was decided that cop10 will be held in Buenos Aires, the same as cop4 at which the

www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo 11 CONFERENCES

Details: Kata Kreft-Burman, Finnish and social dimensions of energy use; Renewables 2004: International Sharing Indigenous Wisdom: Environment Institute, PO Box 140, efficient buildings in efficient commu- Conference for Renewable An International Dialogue on 00251 Helsinki, Finland. Fax: +358-9- nities; energy and environmental poli- Energies Sustainable Development 40300880. Email: jouko. cies; and programme design, imple- Bonn, Germany Wisconsin, USA saarela@ymparisto.fi mentation and evaluation. 01-06-2004 to 04-06-2004 06-06-2004 to 10-06-2004 Web: www.environment.fi/syke/ Details: ACEEE Summer Study Office, Will carry forward the process initiat- Conference participants will include Rebecca Lunetta, PO Box 7588, Newark, ed at the WSSD in 2002 for the global all practitioners, scholars and policy 32nd Session of the International DE 19714-7588, USA. Fax: +1-302- development of renewable energies makers committed to the concepts of Geological Congress 2923965. Email: [email protected] including the development of the Jo- sustainable development. The unique- Florence, Italy Web: www.aceee.org hannesburg Renewable Energy Coali- ness and the expertise within the 20-08-2004 to 28-08-2004 tion. Participation from international Menominee model for sustainable de- Main theme of the Congress is “From Bjerknes Centenary 2004: Climate and national organizations, non-gov- velopment will be a focus. Invited the Mediterranean Area Toward a Glo- Change in High Latitudes ernmental organizations and govern- speakers include David Korten, Adil bal Geological Renaissance: Geology, Bergen, Norway mental representation on a ministerial Najam, Ricardo Navarro and Vandana Natural Hazard, and Cultural Herit- 01-09-2004 to 03-09-2004 level. Shiva. age”. Primary objectives and themes Main focus of the conference will be Details: Conference Secretariat, Re- Details: William Van Lopik, Sustainable for discussion, debate and working on climate change in polar and sub- EVENTS newables 2004, Postfach 5180, 65726 Development Institute, College of sessions include: geological renais- polar regions. Will also commemorate Eschborn, Germany. Fax: +49-6196- Menominee Nation, PO Box 1179, Kes- sance; understanding the earth; inter- the centenary of the publication “1904: 794405. Email: [email protected] hena, WI 54135, USA. Fax: +715- national cooperation; fundamental/ The problem of weather forecasting Web: www.renewables2004.de 7995951. Email: applied geosciences closer interac- as a problem in mechanics and phys- [email protected] Web: tion; and preservation of cultural her- ics,” which is seen as a pioneer publi- World Bioenergy 2004 - “Taking You www.sharingindigenouswisdom.org itage. cation, by Vilhelm Bjerknes. Topics in- from Know-How to Show-How” Details: Organizing Secretariat, New- clude abrupt climate changes and Jönköping, Sweden 7th International Symposium on tours, Via San Donato, 20 - 50127 extreme weather events, carbon cycle 02-06-2004 to 04-06-2004 Environmental Geotechnology & Firenze, Italy. Fax: +39-055-3361250. and high-latitude processes and Conference intends to be professional Global Sustainable Development Email: [email protected] ocean, land and sea ice response to focal point for all major players in the Helsinki, Finland Web: www.32igc.org atmospheric variability. global bioenergy industry. Forum top- 08-06-2004 to 10-06-2004 Details: Beatriz Balino, Bjerknes Cen- ics for discussion include: networking Jointly organized by the Finnish Envi- 2004 ACEEE Summer Study on tre for Climate Research, Allegaten 55, with international bioenergy “movers ronment Institute and the Helsinki Energy Efficiency in Buildings 5007 Bergen, Norway. Email: and shakers”; learning about modern University of Technology with assist- California, USA [email protected] Web: techniques and technologies; locating ance from the International Society of 22-08-2004 to 27-08-2004 www.bjerknes.uib.no/conference2004/ potential partners for cooperation Environmental Geotechnology. Main Theme of the 12th biennial conference projects; and meeting existing and po- themes will cover ecosystems and is “Breaking Out of the Box”. Partici- 8th International Global Atmos- tential business partners. site improvement, geotechnical prob- pants will discuss the technological pheric Chemistry Conference Details: SVEBIO, Torsgatan 12, SE-11 23 lems and solutions, risk assessment basis for, and practical implementa- Christchurch, New Zealand Stockholm, Sweden. Fax: + 46-8- and sustainable development. There tion of, improving energy use in build- 04-09-2004 to 09-09-2004 4417089. Email: [email protected] will be analysis and discussion of all ings. Areas for debate include: design Working theme of the conference is Web: www.svebio.org scientific and technical aspects. and performance of buildings; human “Atmospheric Chemistry in the Envi-

12 Tiempo Issue 51 April 2004 ronment”. Main issues to be dis- will focus on key energy issues cover- 4th EMS Annual Meeting Tenth Session of the Conference cussed will cover atmospheric chem- ing a wide range of topics within the Nice, France of the Parties to the UNFCCC istry in a variety of distinct regions energy industry. The Congress will 26-09-2004 to 30-09-2004 Buenos Aires, Argentina such as the marine boundary layer, also launch the new World Energy Organized by the European Meteoro- 06-12-2004 to 17-12-2004 stratosphere, cryosphere and urban Congress Global Coal Study intended logical Society. Main themes include: The Tenth Conference will take place areas as well as trans-boundary trans- to review issues and developments in atmosphere and the water cycle; In- at the “La Rural” Exhibition and Con- port effects and global biogeochemi- the worldwide coal industry to date. struments and methods of observa- ference Centre in Buenos Aires. cal cycling. Will also include oral and poster ses- tions; computing in atmospheric sci- Details: UNFCCC Secretariat, PO Box Details: Conference Innovators, PO sions, workshops, tutorials, symposia ences; and information provision and 260 124, D-53153 Bonn, Germany. Fax: Box 13494, Christchurch, New Zealand. and panel sessions. education. The 5th European Confer- +49-228-8151999. Email: Fax: +64-3-3790390. Email: Details: 19th World Energy Congress ence on Applied Climatology will be [email protected] Web: www. [email protected] Web: www. Managers, GPO Box 128, Sydney, NSW held concurrently. unfccc.int IGAConference2004.co.nz 2001, Australia. Fax: +61-2-92480894. Details: Werner Wehry, 4th EMS Annual Email: [email protected] Meeting, Applied Synoptics, Carl- 8th International Conference on Coastal Zone Asia Pacific Web: Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6-10, 12165 Solar Energy & Applied Conference 2004 www.tourhosts.com.au/energy2004/ Berlin, Germany. Fax: + 49-30-7919002. Photochemistry - SOLAR’05 Brisbane, Australia Email: [email protected] Luxor/Aswan, Egypt EVENTS 05-09-2004 to 09-09-2004 2nd International Ukranian Web:www.emetsoc.org/ems_4th_ 20-02-2005 to 26-02-2005 Conference theme is “Improving the Conference on Biomass for Energy annual_meeting.html. SOLAR05 conference will be held in quality of life in coastal areas”. There Kyiv, Ukraine conjunction with the 5th Training are seven main topics for presenta- 20-09-2004 to 22-09-2004 7th Asian Fisheries Forum Workshop on Environmental Sciences tions and discussion: coastal poverty Conference is intended to encourage Penang, Malaysia and the 2nd International Workshop and sustainable livelihoods; commu- the use of biomass for energy produc- 30-11-2004 to 04-12-2004 on Nanotechnology. It is intended that nity participation; coastal ecosystem tion and promotion of the sustainable Theme for triennial meeting is “New these combined scientific events will management; coastal resource eco- development of bioenergy technolo- Dimensions and Challenges in Asian give a broad overview on the various nomics; coastal area planning; inte- gies in the Ukraine. Programme will Fisheries in the 21st Century”. Con- fascinating and emerging aspects of grated coastal management; and include plenary lectures on state-of- ference to include special symposia, phototechnologies. Fundamental as- coastal communities and cultures. the-art and prospects of biomass plenary and technical sessions, plus pects and present and future applica- Details: Sally Brown Conference Con- technologies plus oral and poster five post-conference field visits. Fo- tions will be discussed. nections, PO Box 108, Kenmore, Qld presentations on specific research, rum topics will cover issues such as Details: Sabry Abdel-Mottaleb, Direc- 4069, Australia. Fax: +61-7-32012809. development and commercial projects technology needs, participation of the tor, Photoenergy Centre,Ain Shams Email: [email protected] Web: as well as technical excursions. poor, aquatic ecosystem health, and University, Abbassia, Cairo 11566, www.coastal.crc.org.au/czap04/index. Details: Georgiy Geletukha, Institute of management of small-scale fisheries. Egypt, Fax: +202-4845941. Email: html Engineering Thermophysics, National Details: The Secretariat, 7th Asian Fish- [email protected] Web: www. Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 2a eries Forum, School of Biological Sci- photoenergy.org 19th World Energy Congress Zhelyabov St, Kyiv 03057, Ukraine, ences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 Sydney, Australia Fax: +38-044-4566091. Email: Minden, Penang, Malaysia. Fax: +60-4- 05-09-2004 to 09-09-2004 [email protected] 6565125. Email: [email protected] A major international energy-oriented Web: www.biomass.kiev.ua Web: www.usm.my/7AFF2004/ event. The main technical programme

www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo 13 Adaptation Day at COP9

Hannah Reid and Saleemul Huq report on Adaptation Day, a major COP9 side event held in Milan in December 2003.

he ninth Conference of Parties species (it is not the human species alone cies and actions; daily individual adaptation (cop9) to the United Nations Frame- which will have to adapt to climate change); actions; and interactions between these lev- work Convention on Climate Change equity between poor and rich countries; and els. Decision-makers need to tackle issues (unfccc) was held in Milan, during equity between generations. Jouni Paavola ranging from historical responsibility for December 2003. For the second year (Centre for Social and Economic Research dealing with climate change, to local adap- running, the International Institute on the Global Environment – cserge, Univer- tive responses increasing the vulnerability of for Environment and Development sity of East Anglia, uk) developed this theme nearby poor communities. T (iied) and the Regional and International by describing a recent project investigating Barry Smit (University of Guelph, Canada) Networking Group (ring) held ‘Adaptation justice and equity issues relating to climate explained that whilst a ‘top-down’ scenario- Day at cop’. This was hosted by the Fondazi- change. Equity needs consideration at multi- based approach could help answer the ques- one Eni Enrico Mattei (feem) and funded ple decision-making levels: the international tion ‘how dangerous is climate change?’, a by Etc International. Well over 100 people legal framework; national adaptation poli- ‘bottom-up’ systems approach is required attended. to assess how communities adapt to climate The first session on the science of adapta- MAIN POINTS change. These approaches do not necessarily tion was chaired by Saleemul Huq (iied, uk). lead to the same conclusions: for example, Hannah Reid and funding, actions and Stephen Schneider (University of Stanford, government policies can in fact lead to ‘mala- Saleemul Huq politics of adaptation. usa) opened by describing what changes describe the presen-  It is concluded daptation’ if they fail to address current and in the global climate scientists anticipate tations and discus- that, despite growing future local risks. Richard Klein (Potsdam that the world will have to adapt to, and sion at Adaptation interest, the issue Institute for Climate Impact Research – pik, the debate over what level of change was Day at COP9. still needs to be Germany) then described pik’s project on considered ‘dangerous’. He placed particular  Issues covered pushed to the fore. Environmental Vulnerability Assessment, emphasis on equity issues: equity between include the science, which combines these two approaches. The

14 Tiempo Issue 51 April 2004 project aims to evaluate the mechanisms tal global environmental benefits of funding. to a preventative approach. Avis Robinson and magnitude by which global change af- This is problematic in the context of adapta- (us Environmental Protection Agency) end- fects natural and human systems, and how tion benefits, most of which are accrued ed the session by stressing the importance systems respond and interact to reduce their locally. Boni Biagini (gef) stated that gef has of considering adaptation in conjunction exposure and enhance their adaptive capac- recently allocated us$50 million specifically with mitigation. She described the need to ity to this change. for adaptation activities, and is developing educate senior us officials in issues relating Neil Leary (SysTem for Analysis Research guidance on how funds should be distrib- to adaptation, especially the Department of and Training – start, Washington) described uted. Richard Hosier (undp) elaborated fur- State. She also expressed the need for donors the Assessments of Impacts and Adapta- tions to Climate Change in Multiple Regions Definitions of adaptation and technology transfer and Sectors (aiacc) project, which involves ‘remain ‘ contentious. 24 regional studies in 46 countries in Latin ’’ America, Africa, Asia, and the Small Island States. The project aims to inform policy by ther on gef’s strategic approach to adapta- (as well as countries) to prioritise their ac- understanding who is vulnerable and why, tion. He described the difficulties in coming tivities with regards to adaptation, and said and what types of adaptation strategies are up with sensible adaptation projects, and that usaid is currently assessing the extent to likely to be effective. stressed that the first priority should be to which its project activities account for adap- The second session on funding adaptation ensure that funded projects do no harm. He tation, and also possibilities for making new was chaired by Joel Smith (Stratus Consult- also described the need to build on existing resources available. ing). Mary Jane Mace (Foundation for Inter- strengths, tools and activities, stressing the The fourth session on adaptation in action national Environmental Law and Develop- importance of meeting the immediate needs was chaired by Andrew Simms (New Eco- ment – field, uk) began by providing an of the ldcs, as well as the long-term adapta- nomics Foundation, uk). Brett Orlando (The overview of current funding opportunities tion needs of all poor countries. World Conservation Union – iucn) began by for adaptation under the unfccc. She em- Frank Sperling (World Bank) discussed describing three adaptation-related projects phasized that the text is often unclear, and the need to link development planning with in which iucn is involved. Firstly, the Water the language used ‘slippery’. Definitions of adaptation to climate change, focusing on and Climate Change Dialogue looks at climate adaptation and technology transfer remain capacity building. He described the difficul- variability and change as well as the instabil- contentious. Progress has been made with ties encountered in separating adaptation ity of water systems, and human responses. the Least Development Countries (ldc) fund, costs from other costs (such as road build- Secondly, protected areas, which may end up but how the Adaptation Fund and the Special ing), and raised the key question of who being located in the ‘wrong’ places if climate Climate Change Fund will function remains should pay for adaptation and how much. For change causes ecosystem boundaries to shift, debated. There are also problems with the example, he questioned whether developing are considered. Lastly, iucn is involved with Global Environment Facility (gef) approach, countries should have to pay at all. He stated the Task Force on Climate Change, Vulnerable which currently favours large projects and that the World Bank has moved from a reac- Communities and Adaptation, which aims requires them to demonstrate the incremen- tive approach to dealing with adaptation, to strengthen the role of ecosystem manage-

www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo 15 ment and restoration activities in reducing adaptation, disaster preparedness, disaster pacity, and combined these with ecosystem the vulnerability of communities to climate mitigation and development. She described vulnerability to produce a sensitivity map change and climate-related hazards. Anne seven steps to improve risk reduction: pre- for India. She stressed that globalisation can Hammill (International Institute for Sustain- liminary climate risk assessment; assess pri- alter vulnerability patterns, for example, by able Development – iisd, Canada) elaborated orities and plan follow up; raise awareness; changing relationships between corporate further on this Task Force: phase one ended in establish and enhance partnerships; high- organisations and small farmers, and de- 2003, and phase two will facilitate the imple- light climate-related vulnerability with other scribed how case studies were chosen based mentation of adaptation activities that use actors; document and share experiences and on their sensitivity to both climate change community-based approaches. A toolkit will information; advocacy and shaping the glo- and globalisation. Household surveys at each be developed from pilot implementation ac- bal response to climate change. Youba Soko- case study site revealed how local coping tivities, and outreach activities will continue. na (Environmental Development Action in mechanisms (such as migration) were short- Adaptation screening tools, to allow people the Third World – enda, Senegal) stated that term and temporary. There is, therefore, a to assess their project portfolios in the con- rather than theorising, the key issue was to need to develop longer-term coping solu- text of adaptation, will also be developed. learn from the considerable body of existing tions such as seed banks and insurance. She Jan Verhagen (Wageningen University, The knowledge that communities currently have stressed the need to increase local aware- Netherlands) described the Development and use on adapting to climate change. He ness, but also strengthen institutions. Shar- and Climate project, which aims to identify also stressed the links between adaptation dul Agarwala (Organisation for Economic development pathways that are sustainable and facilitate the delivery of positive cli- Socially, people can cope with climate change, mate change outcomes. The project started ‘‘ by looking at current development priorities but economically, they can’t. in Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, Senegal ’’ and South Africa, and then assessing which and poverty, stating that socially, people can Co-operation and Development – oecd) of these increased vulnerability to climate cope with climate change, but economically, concluded the third session by describing change, and led to low greenhouse gas emis- they can’t. Funding is therefore needed at the an oecd project examining synergies and sions. Specific case studies are drawn from local level and to help scale up existing com- conflicts in mainstreaming responses to cli- the water, food and energy sectors. munity adaptation activities to regional and mate change within development planning Madeleen Helmer (Red Cross/Red Cres- national levels. and assistance. Case studies included Bang- cent Centre on Climate Change and Disaster Suruchi Bhadwal (The Energy and Re- ladesh, Egypt, Fiji, Nepal, Tanzania and Uru- Preparedness) addressed issues relating to sources Institute – teri, India) described the guay. The project identified the importance climate change and disaster preparedness. project, Coping with Global Change; Vulner- of policy coherence (within climate policies, Weather-related disasters have increased ability and Adaptation in Indian Agriculture. between climate and other environmental over the past ten years, affecting an increasing The project chose various indicators (such as policies, and between climate and develop- number of people. The Red Cross responds to literacy rates, irrigation and infrastructure ment policies) in preventing ‘maladaptation’ disasters, but also aims to reduce risk through development) to represent adaptation ca- and finding ‘no-regrets’ solutions. He added

16 Tiempo Issue 51 April 2004 that climate change impacts can be positive weak to date, and Pronk suggested that poor ABOUT THE AUTHORS as well as negative: for example, coffee pro- countries should demand operationalisa-  Hannah Reid is a Re- duction is expected to increase in Tanzania. tion of the many existing instruments (for ex- search Associate at the The final session on the politics and nego- ample, National Adaptation Plans of Action, International Institute for tiations relating to adaptation was chaired by Millennium Development targets, Poverty Environment and Develop- ment (IIED). Jan Pronk (Chairman iied, uk). Discussants Reduction Strategy Papers) before proceed- included Phil O’Keefe (etc International), ing with negotiations to develop new instru-  Saleemul Huq is the Farhana Yamin (Institute of Development ments. Collaboration with other multilateral Climate Change Programme Studies – ids, uk), Bakari Kante (unep), Joke environmental agreements is important, as Director at the International Waller-Hunter (unfccc) and Sabihuddin is mainstreaming adaptation into existing Institute for Environment and Ahmad (leader of Bangladesh delegation). development actions (as long as additional Development (IIED). Issues discussed included the increasing in- funding is provided for this). Lastly, capacity ternational commitment to adaptation, but building is needed, in both the North and the lack of associated funding, and lack of link- South. CONTACT ages with relevant work on poverty. Despite the growing interest in adapta-  Hannah Reid and Saleemul Huq, IIED, How to reach the poorest communities re- tion, the issue still needs greater attention 3 Endsleigh Street, London WC1H 0DD, UK mains problematic, and stakeholders must from negotiators and policy makers. Many of Fax +44 (0)20 7388 2826 Web www.iied.org Email [email protected] and saleemul. realise that working with the poor is expen- those attending Adaptation Day were already [email protected] sive and adaptation projects are difficult adaptation advocates, and the need to reach to deliver in practice. Various institutions out to a broader community and bring in FURTHER INFORMATION and processes within civil society can help those not usually associated with adaptation  In the Cyberlibrary: Search for ‘adapta- prevent stalemates by diffusing/deflecting issues was apparent. Another key group of tion’ using www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo/ problems, and also provide ways to take ad- stakeholders, which had little presence at search.htm to locate relevant material. aptation issues forward outside the unfccc Adaptation Day, and indeed the whole cop,  On the Web: For an account of how the negotiations. Adaptation has less ‘backup’ was the development ngo community. Peo- climate negotiations are handling the issue from the research/methodological commu- ple are increasingly asking questions such as: of adaptation see the Climate Compendium, nity than mitigation, and has only seriously What is adaptation? How do we implement www.cckn.net/compendium/int_ been on the agenda for two years. However, adaptation on the ground? And how best vulnerability.asp links between adaptation and mitigation are can we fund adaptation? The development  Publication: Free electronic and hard copies of the report will soon be available being developed, and this needs to be built community, including key ngos such as Ac- from IIED. Contact Hannah Reid (details on rather than discouraged. Choosing be- tionAid, Oxfam and Christian Aid, which above) or see www.iied.org/climate_ tween adaptation and mitigation, or exclud- has long experience with such issues in the change/pubs.html ing adaptation from the unfccc process, is, broader arena of sustainable development, therefore, not an option. Implementation now needs to join the process and help pro- of unfccc commitments has, however, been vide answers to these pressing questions. ‡

www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo 17 Island climate update

Ashmita Gosai, Penehuro Lefale and Jim Salinger describe the content and application of a highly successful seasonal climate bulletin.

he Small Island Developing States and climate. The paper, A needs analysis for by weather and climate-related extremes and (sids) in the South Pacific have long the strengthening of Pacific Island Meteorologi- disasters has doubled. This rise was from recognized that their social, cul- cal Services for the Australian Agency for roughly two per cent in 1975 to four per cent tural, environmental and economic International Development which was pub- in 2001 as shown by Benito Müller in his well-being are solely dependent on lished by the South Pacific Regional Environ- paper ‘Equity in Climate Change: The Great their natural environments, which ment Programme in 2001, confirmed this Divide’, published by Oxford University in are largely driven by weather and assessment. 2002 (www.oxfordclimatepolicy.org). Tclimate. Recent statistical analyses of natural disas- In absolute numbers, these trends have While there are increasing concerns over ters show that over the past three decades, the quadrupled over the same period rising from the likely impacts of future anthropogenic proportion of the global population affected 70 to 250 million people. The Small Island climate change, the more immediate issues Developing States of the South Pacific are for Small Island Developing States emanate MAIN POINTS strongly affected because of their geographi- from natural weather and climate variabil-  Asmita Gosai, tion, careful verifica- cal location which is frequently traversed by ity on the much shorter timescales of daily, Penehuro Lefale tion and application tropical cyclones, which are readily influ- and Jim Salinger in the Pacific island seasonal and interannual. Extreme events, enced by enso. Other research shows there is describe a regional states of the tropical cyclones, droughts and flooding, project to produce a seasonal predictions. an increasing trend in climate extremes and predominantly driven by the El Niño South- monthly climate  It is concluded variability in the Small Island Developing ern Oscillation (enso) – El Niño and La Niña bulletin, the Island that reliable and States of the South Pacific region. events – are classic examples. Climate Update, for usable short-term It is imperative, therefore, that the Small According to the World Meteorological Or- the Pacific. climate forecasts are Island Developing States of the South Pacific ganization, seventy per cent of natural disas-  They discuss the vital and achievable. have access to accurate and timely climate ters worldwide can be attributed to weather multinational produc- forecasts to manage the risks associated with

18 Tiempo Issue 51 April 2004 weather and climate extremes. The Island mate research organizations and the Nation- Putting it together – the process Climate Update (icu) was conceived, after al Meteorological Services of Small Island De- The success of the Island Climate Update a ten-year consultation process involving veloping States in the South Pacific, they form is solely dependent on the multinational these nations, climate research organiza- a virtual regional mechanism to produce the collaboration amongst all the organizations tions, development partners and end-users, Island Climate Update. Our institute, The and stakeholders involved. The figure on the to address this need. National Institute of Water and Atmospheric next page summarizes the main steps in- Research of New Zealand (niwa), coordinates volved in preparing the bulletin. A virtual regional mechanism the scientific process involved in the Island The preparation of seasonal guidance ma- The concept of a Small Island Developing Climate Update production. terials such as observations and background States regional climate bulletin was first sug- Today, the Island Climate Update is a multi- climatology, are first circulated amongst the gested in a study, The Changing Climate in national monthly climate bulletin. Its pri- participating partners. This is followed by a Paradise: Feasibility Study on Climate Moni- mary goal is to assist Small Island Developing monthly teleconference where the current toring and Impacts in the Southwest Pacific, States of the South Pacific make informed and three monthly seasonal climate analy- undertaken for the World Meteorological planning and management decisions relat- ses (expert assessment), based on the sea- Organization in 1991. The concept was unani- ing to climate sensitive sectors like agricul- sonal guidance materials, are discussed. A mously endorsed by the third annual South ture, water, tourism, fisheries and energy consensus on the behaviour of the large- Pacific Regional Environment Programme’s through the provision of timely and accurate scale climate patterns, such as enso and the Meeting of Regional Meteorological Serv- seasonal climate forecasts. South Pacific Convergence Zone, that affect ices Directors held in Samoa in 1995. It was the weather and climate of the Small Island recognized at the time that most of these A MOST VALUABLE TOOL Developing States region, is reached. This small nation islands of the South Pacific, consensus forms the basis of the next three- with the exception of the French and United “We, in the Pacific have now come about month climate outlook shown as Products States Territories, do not have the resources to realizing the potential usefulness and and Forecasts opposite. appropriateness, especially in having a to develop locally their own global climate A number of organizations and countries more comprehensible and more knowl- models. This, in turn, meant that they were edgeable tool (Island Climate Update), are involved in the monthly teleconference unable to undertake analyses of climate in- of assisting our people; plan and prepare discussions: formation and products to be able to pro- adequately for the months ahead. • the Australian Bureau of Meteorology; duce local climate forecasts. I commend and congratulate the produc- • Meteo-France (New Caledonia and French The South Pacific Regional Environment ers and contributors and especially the Polynesia); Programme and the South Pacific Geo-Sci- donors for without this financial support, • the Fiji Meteorological Service; ence Commission are the regional hosts for this most valuable and useful tool to the • the Samoa Meteorological Service; the Island Climate Update. Together with Pacific Islands shall never come forth.” • the us National Oceanic and Atmospheric their development partners, the Italian Min- Administration (noaa); Mr Faatoia Malele, Samoa National Mete- istry for the Environment, the New Zealand • the National Weather Service; orological Division, February 2001. Agency for International Development, cli- • noaa Climate Prediction Center; and,

www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo 19 PREPARING THE ICU TOGETHER as there is a need for consensus on enso. provide advice on the Small Island Develop- enso is an important climatic feature as it ing States in the South Pacific who are not plays a principal role in the seasonal climate present in the teleconference. of the Pacific region. Furthermore, in recent During the tropical cyclone season which years, enso has been recognized as a critical is from November to April, the Island Climate climate factor that modulates rainfall and Update team also prepares a tropical cyclone tropical cyclones in the region. Therefore, outlook for the season based on the phase consensus has to be reached to ensure timely of enso, the Southwest Pacific sea surface disaster preparedness if there be a need. It temperatures and statistical tropical cyclone is also extremely vital to ensure the various data. This is usually done at the beginning of organizations reduce the chances of conflict- the season, October or November. Many Na- ing enso forecasts. This, in turn, reduces any tional Meteorological Services rely on the Is- untimely anxiety in the Pacific Island com- land Climate Update’s tropical cyclone guid- munities who rely largely on their knowl- ance to plan and prepare for cyclone related edge of the climate for their subsistence disasters. Once again, consensus is reached crops and water supply. by the Island Climate Update team before Seasonal rainfall forecasts for Small Is- the tropical cyclone outlook is released to land Developing States in the South Pacific the public. • the International Research Institute for are achieved through an ensemble of global Climate Prediction. forecast models. Generally, niwa, in New How accurate The Island Climate Update teleconference Zealand, produces the seasonal rainfall fore- are the climate outlooks? commences with a climate synopsis of the cast through interpolation techniques of a Seasonal climate outlooks should be veri- previous month by all participants. This is number of global rainfall forecast models fied to determine the skill of models and the encapsulated in the second page of the bul- for twenty countries in the region. Rainfall forecasters. This is carried out at the start of letin. The first page of the Island Climate Up- forecasts are thoroughly discussed and the the new month, prior to the teleconference. date provides a general climate summary of local island scientists use their vast resident A number of Small Island Developing States previous monthly conditions with seasonal climate experience to reach consensus on a and collaborating partners provide rainfall climate outlooks for the next three months. seasonal rainfall forecast for their particu- and temperature information for verification The next major task is the global climate lar country. Normally, the regional scientists of past three-month outlooks. This group diagnostics. This involves a thorough review process by climate scientists in the Small Island Developing States with essential in- ENSO is an important climatic feature put from internationally renowned climate ‘as ‘ it plays a principal role in the seasonal climate scientists during the teleconference. This is a of the Pacific region. very important part of the whole discussion ’’

20 Tiempo Issue 51 April 2004 includes: Australia, the Cook Islands, Fiji, FORECAST VERIFICATION French Polynesia, Kiribati, New Caledonia, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, the Solo- mon Islands, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu, Van- uatu, and Wallis and Futuna. Validation of the first thirty Island Climate Update outlooks for the Southwest Pacific (see figure) indicates how often the forecasts have been correct in a categorical sense. Taking the Island Climate Update forecast category (below, average or below, average, average or above, or above average) to be as- signed the highest probability, the contours and numbers show the percentage frequency of correct forecasts. The hit rate has been highest (>seventy per cent) in the 0–20˚S latitudes west of about 155˚W, in the region from Western Kiribati to the Northern Cook Islands, including Toke- lau, and especially over Tuvalu (eighty-one per cent). The scores have, however, been much lower in areas around and to the south and east of Samoa. For the thirty issue period (see figure) the average hit rate for the whole of the forecast region has ranged between about forty-five and eighty per cent. The distribution of forecast success is affected by some extent to the enso state and the location of the South Pacific Convergence Zone. With much of the period being above fifty per cent, a useful skill has been achieved.

Conclusions  Frequency of correct 3-month rainfall outlooks (top panel), and validation scores for the Accurate seasonal to interannual climate 30 (3-month) rainfall outlooks (bottom panel). This shows the percentage correct forecasts. Scores of 60% or more indicate significantly better outcomes than by chance. prediction has been a major research and

www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo 21 application topic for the Small Island Devel- oping States in the South Pacific. The experi- The success of the Island Climate Update ence so far from the Island Climate Update ‘has ‘ been solely dependent on the multi-national has demonstrated unequivocally that short- collaboration by all participating partners. range climate prediction is achievable with ’’ skill. Through the provision of such accurate The success of the Island Climate Update The continued success of the Island Cli- and timely seasonal climate outlooks the to date, however, has been solely dependent mate Update is ultimately attributable to the small island nations of the South Pacific are on the multi-national collaboration by all wide multilateral cooperation and commit- becoming increasingly aware of the value of participating partners. This has been facili- ment of many nations and organizations. As climate predictions. In some of these nations, tated especially through access to historical a result, the Island Climate Update has suc- they are using the outlooks from the Island and real time climate data and expert advice ceeded in delivering scientifically sound cli- Climate Update to formulate appropriate from the Small Island Developing States of mate information and products to the Small response strategies to impending climate the South Pacific. This dataset is used for Island Developing States of the South Pacific events such as tropical cyclones and other climate forecast validation and improving in a cost effective manner. ‡ climate-related impacts. future seasonal forecasts.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS  Ashmita Gosai is a Climate  Penehuro Lefale is Pacific  Jim Salinger is a Senior Applications Scientist at the Island Analyst and at the Climate Scientist at the National Institute of Water and National Institute of Water and National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research in Atmospheric Research in Atmospheric Research in Auck- Auckland, New Zealand. Auckland, New Zealand. land, New Zealand.

CONTACT FURTHER INFORMATION  Ashmita Gosai, Penehuro Lefale, Jim  In the Tiempo Cyberlibrary: A list of  The latest issue of the Pacific Climate Salinger, National Institute of Water and sites providing monitoring and forecast Update can be found at www.niwa.cri.nz/ncc/ Atmospheric Research Ltd, information related to ENSO phenomenon icu/current/ PO Box 109695, Auckland, New Zealand can be found at www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo/  For weekly news and more on weather Fax: +64-9-3752051 floor0/theme/t47web.htm. See also www.cru. events worldwide, visit Tiempo Newswatch, Email: [email protected]; uea.ac.uk/tiempo/floor0/bright/ideas/bi020403. www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo/newswatch/ [email protected]; [email protected] htm Web: www.niwa.co.nz

22 Tiempo Issue 51 April 2004 Global demand destroys rainforest

TROPICAL FORESTS been cases of small farmers suffering threats has been allocated to palm oil production by or actual violence when they refuse to sell. the government. The establishment of palm Rainforest in Brazil and Indonesia Small farmers produce for their own fam- plantation at the expense of primary forest is being cleared to meet increasing ily and the local markets. Soya is geared to leads, it has been estimated, to the loss of demand for soya and palm oil. exports. Does this improve the lives of the 80–100 per cent of species. Indonesia is one local people?” of the world’s richest nations in its range of In the Amazon, forest destruction is occur- Infrastructure development is accelerat- biodiversity. ring faster than logging ever achieved as land ing throughout the region, with roads being Palm oil is found in a staggering one- is being cleared for new crops. Around 25,000 built to support the new industry. At least tenth of supermarket products, ranging from square kilometres of forest disappeared in one food multinational, Cargill, based in the margarine, through cosmetics to cakes, bis- 2002. “We will soon see the irreversible sub- United States, is being challenged by the Bra- cuits, toothpaste, ice cream, noodles and stitution of the rainforest by a landscape of zilian government concerned that facilities detergents. Friends of the Earth has called grains”, warns Cristovan Sena, government have been built without any environmental on manufacturers to declare whether or not forestry engineer. impact assessment. their products contain palm oil from sustain- The Brazilian invasion of the soya bean The government’s environment minister ably-managed plantations. is driven by a growing market in China and Marina Silva is hoping to make progress com- Again, local communities are suffering be- increasing use as cattle feed in Europe, as well bating forest destruction. More stringent in- cause of this global demand. Over 100 million as the activities of multinational companies. spections and enforcement of controls on Indonesians depend on the forest for their In Santarém in the state of Pará, it has been deforestation had led to a 54 per cent increase livelihood. As with soya beans, converting estimated that the area of soya in production in fines. But she admits that the “challenges forest to grow profitable palm oil – palm NEWS will quadruple to 35,000 hectares from this are so huge they cannot be the work of one oil prices have risen steeply in recent years year to next. single person, one single ministry. It should – generally reduces income for local people Local farmers are under pressure to sell be the effort of a government at large and a but makes money for others. Palm monocul- their land to larger concerns. According to whole nation”. ture often results in uncontrolled pesticide Jose Taveira da Silva, a rural union leader, In Indonesia, palm oil has led to an even use and effluent from processing plants, pol- “the soya growers are following the loggers greater scale of forest destruction. By the luting the local environment and damaging into land that was forested, and there have mid-1990s, an area of the size of Hungary human health.

www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo 23 Malaysia, being the biggest palm oil pro- ducer, controls over 60 per cent of the indus- try’s world output. Malaysian Palm Oil Board director-general Datuk Dr Yusof Basiron be- lieves that criticism of the palm oil industry by non-governmental organizations in the west is being orchestrated by competitors, such as soya bean oil producers. He said the latest tactic of using the environment as an indirect campaign tool was the result of the failure of smear campaigns in the past. Launching a counter-offensive, he asserted that “consumers, particularly in the west, will be enlightened with the fact that the palm oil industry has contributed in the preservation of the environment. Our ability to supply the world with relatively low priced edible oil had made it possible for countries with short supply of such product to refrain from chopping down their forests to meet that need.” ‡

 Information sources: Greenpeace has further details of soya’s role in forest destruction in the Amazon, including photos and video, at www.greenpeace. NEWS org/international_en/features/details?item_ id=367386. The report by Friends of the Earth on palm oil and the environment can be found at www.foe.co.uk/resource/reports/greasy_ palms_summary.pdf. See also the World Rainforest Movement report at www.wrm.org. Destruction of rainforest to prepare for soya plantations in Para State, Brazil. uy/plantations/material/oilpalm2.html. Photo: © Greenpeace/Daniel Beltra

24 Tiempo Issue 51 April 2004 Adaptation research – new insights

RESEARCH WORKSHOP theoretical insight is likely to stem from potential to stigmatise an area should also be consideration of livelihoods, actor-networks, considered. Even if undertaken competently, Tom Downing describes the main political ecology, resilience, risk assessment, mapping hot spots may be a poor guide to outcomes of the Adaptation vulnerability, and justice. Theoretical devel- targeting adaptation. Research Workshop, which took opment should focus on processes and the Structured vulnerability assessments can, place in Delhi, 9-12 November 2003. dynamic nature of vulnerability and adap- however, provide useful information for tive capacity; include actors and social net- stakeholders. We know enough to act now Some 60 people from Africa, Asia, Europe and works, and their perceptions, expectations, in many situations, but recognizing local North America, spanning interests from wa- and responses to risks; consider the coupled differences, we should invest in gathering ter and disasters to climate adaptation and character of human and environmental sys- more information that might facilitate iden- livelihoods, met in Delhi as part of a process tems; understand the triggers of events and tification of generic approaches. Generic to review key policy issues and research de- surprises; link multi-scale processes from the templates of adaptation may be possible mands in the realm of adaptation to climate local to global; and link across stressors and for similar conditions of vulnerability and change. The opening session of the cluster stresses. adaptive capacity. Existing proposals for of events, sponsored by the Government of Methodologies for targeting vulnerabili- generic adaptation policies have, however, India, placed adaptation firmly on both the ties are improving, but remain inadequate not been systematically collected and field- climate and development agendas. The work- for prioritising adaptation. The dominant tested. shop participants agreed that adaptation is model for ‘mapping’ vulnerability relies on An expanded toolkit for vulnerability and urgent and necessary and not a substitute for selection of indicators, transforming the in- adaptation research is available. Adaptation mitigation. The headline conclusions from dicators into relative scores and combining is a dynamic process that requires a wider NEWS the workshop are as follows. the indicators into an overall vulnerability array of tools than the ‘scenario-impact’ ap- A more complete theory of adaptation is index. Indicators should relate to actors, and proach common in first generation adapta- emerging. There is a clear need to draw upon choice of indicators needs to be based on tion studies. The tools are suitable for diverse and extend theoretical literature and rel- an explicit conceptual framework. Possibili- applications, from awareness raising and im- evant experience from more than 50 years of ties for combining indicators into aggre- pact assessment to strategic policy to specific effort in disasters and development. Among gate scores should be evaluated. Identifying climate-sensitive decisions. the many relevant paradigms and discourses, priority areas can target resources, but the A risk assessment approach to adaptation

www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo 25 are at the regional scale. Participatory ap- proaches can involve stakeholders at this scale, relying on expert knowledge and high resolution data bases of local conditions. Capacity in climate adaptation research and assessment is a priority. International linkages should support local adaptation and facilitate the integration of local lessons into more general strategies. Major insight will come from developing countries. To ex- pand the research community with greater depth it is essential to develop long-term partnerships with and among developing country researchers and institutes. The workshop is part of a process of capac- ity building. Briefing notes were prepared Speakers at the Adaptation Research Workshop. Photo: Paul Desanker and a set of papers is in preparation. The Vulnerability Network seeks to stimulate planning emphasises the value of informa- municated. Adaptation planning requires discussion and facilitate access to literature tion to support decision-making and avoids linking present and future climate risks (over (www.VulnerabilityNet.org). Finally, a pio- some of the difficulties of a climate scenario- the next few years to decades). Yet, there is still neering award to Ian Burton for leadership impacts vulnerability methodology. Risk- a gap between seasonal climate forecasts and in climate change adaptation was made at based approaches to climate change offer longer-term simulations of anthropogenic the meeting. ‡ new opportunities for adaptation research, climate change. A risk assessment requires but also new challenges. Probabilistic sce- a common understanding of probabilities,  About the author: Tom Downing leads narios are becoming available from large uncertainty and decision-making across a the SEI Oxford Office and the SEI Risk and Vulnerability Programme. His research, train- ensemble runs of global climate models (e.g. span of research traditions. ing and applications concern vulnerability NEWS www.climateprediction.net). Integrating stakeholder and local knowl- assessment and the processes of adaptation Adaptation research requires local infor- edge is a priority. Promising methods range to climate risks in food systems and integrat- mation on climatic parameters, such as the from participatory integrated assessment to ed water management. distribution of events (e.g. dry spells), which knowledge elicitation. Stakeholder methods  Contact details: Tom Downing, are closely dependent on time frames and should be designed especially to link be- SEI Oxford Office, 10b Littlegate Street, geographic scales. To avoid the limitations tween qualitative understanding and formal Oxford OX1 1QT, UK Fax: +44 1865 202070/80 of climate scenario-led research, the new as- models. Opportunities for innovation in cli- Email: [email protected] sumptions need to be clear and clearly com- mate change science, impacts and responses Web: www.sei.se/oxford

26 Tiempo Issue 51 April 2004 A GAUNT VIEW © 2004 Lawrence Moore

Issue 51 April 2004 ISSN 0962-7030 Editorial team: Saleemul Huq, Hannah Reid, Gerald Leach, Sarah Granich, Mick Kelly Editorial office: Tiempo, International Insti- tute for Environment and De- velopment, 3 Endsleigh St, London WC1H 0DD, UK Fax: +44 (0)20 7388 2826 Email: [email protected] and [email protected] Distribution: Tiempo is available free on request. Write to Tiempo, attn: Mick Kelly, School of Environmen- tal Sciences, UEA, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK, or email [email protected]

Tiempo is published by: the International Institute for Environment and Develop- ment, the University of East Anglia and the Stockholm Environment Institute-York, with financial support from the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida). Production Manager: Erik Willis Layout: Lisetta Tripodi Programme coordinator: Johan Kuylenstierna Design: A4 Printed by: PMS Marketing Logistics, York

www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo 27 Issue 51 April 2004 Visit www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo for the latest news, information and debate

A new era for Tiempo s you will have noticed, Tiempo has Gerald Leach directed the energy pro- Finally, with increasing access to the In- a new look. We hope that you find gramme at iied from 1974 to 1988. Since then, ternet in the developing world, the Tiempo that the new design makes it easier he has been a Senior Research Fellow with the website is going to play a more important for you to find the information that Stockholm Environment Institute, working role – and this is the area that the two of us will you need and the articles that you are on various aspects of energy, environment be most involved with from now on. most interested in. and development. We are going to expand the existing site Beneath the surface, there are oth- Saleem, Hannah and Gerald will now com- with a new central section, a weekly news er changes affecting the way mission most of the material magazine. The web-based magazine will then A THE FINAL WORD in which the bulletin is pro- for the printed bulletin. feed material into the printed bulletin. duced. We have an expanded Greater attention The overall aim of Tiempo At this time, though, we feel that Tiempo editorial team. Saleemul Huq, must be paid to the continues to be providing a can continue to play a modest but significant Hannah Reid and Gerald Leach interests of the least voice to the South in a debate part in furthering the effective and equitable are joining us from this issue developed nations. often dominated by the North, participation of southern nations in the in- onwards. Sarah Granich and providing accurate and timely ternational response to climate change. Saleemul Huq is Director Mick Kelly. information reflecting south- of the Climate Change Pro- ern interests, and promoting Sarah Granich is an envi- gramme at the International Institute for En- mutual understanding between South and ronmental consultant, based vironment and Development (iied), London, North. in Norwich, UK. She founded Tiempo, with Mick Kelly and uk, and Chairman of the Bangladesh Centre At this time we feel that greater atten- Richard Sandbrook, in 1991. for Advanced Studies, Dhaka, Bangladesh. tion must be paid to the interests of the Hannah Reid is a Research Associate work- least developed nations, combining climate ing with the Climate Change Programme at concerns with poverty reduction and other Mick Kelly is an atmospheric scientist with the Climatic iied. She has a broad background of working development priorities. Alongside coverage Research Unit, University of in development, community-based biodiver- of the broader climate issue, these countries East Anglia, Norwich, UK. sity management and climate change related will provide a focus for the bulletin over the issues. next few years.