Climate Forecasting – the Southwest Pacific experience

Dr Jim Salinger, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Auckland, Prediction in the South Pacific

TheThe IslandIsland ClimateClimate UpdateUpdate Climate Prediction in the South Pacific

‹ Observations and Forecast Guidance ‹ Multinational Collaboration ‹ The Seasonal Outlook ‹ Validation ‹ Applications ‹ Conclusions Climate Prediction Procedure

Climatology Observations Background

EXPERT ASSESSMENT

Products Forecasts

Figure 1: Preparing the ICU together ENSO Climatology : El Niño and La Niña (ENSO):

El Niño La Niña

Sea temperature difference from average •Warmer in tropics •Cooler in tropics •Cooler in much of Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) •Warmer in much of SW Pacific SW Pacific •NE movement of •SW movement of SPCZ SPCZ •Eastward extension of TC region ENSO Climatology : El Niño and La Niña (ENSO): Climatology Tropical Cyclone Risk

0o

20oS

40oS 120oE 150oE 180o 150oW 120oW

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 Climate Outlook: Observations

Outgoing Longwave Radiation Climate Outlook: ENSO Guidance

Summary of main seasonal ENSO model results Climate Model or Group JFM 2005 AMJ 2005 JAS 2005 POAMA () Warm Neutral Neutral CPC CCA (USA) Warm War m Neutral COLA (USA) Neutral Neutral Unavailable ECMWF (UK) Neutral Neutral Unavailable LDEO(4) (USA) Warm Neutral Neutral NCEP (USA) Warm Neutral Neutral NOAA Linear Inverse (USA) Warm Neutral Neutral SCRIPPS/MPI (USA/FRG) Warm Neutral Neutral NASA-NSIPP (USA) Warm Neutral Neutral JMA (Japan) Warm War m Unavailable SSES (Ohio, USA) Neutral Neutral Unavailable CLIPER (USA) Neutral Neutral Neutral

Multinational Collaboration

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data American Samoa, Australia, Cook Islands, Fiji, French Polynesia, Kiribati, New Zealand, New Caledonia, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Pitcairn Island, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu Involvement from: SOPAC New Zealand Agency for International Development South Pacific Regional Environment Programme, SPREP WMO Sub Regional Office, Apia Australian Bureau of Meteorology Meteo France Fiji Meteorological Service NOAA National Weather Service, Honolulu NOAA Climate Prediction Center International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, IRICP Monthly teleconference: Melbourne, Noumea, Auckland, Wellington, Nadi, Papeete, Honolulu, Washington, New York Last Month’s Climate

Outgoing long-wave radiation anomalies for December 2004

Marshall Is Caroline Is

W Kiribati E Kiribati Line Is EQUATOR Papua New-Guinea Nauru Rawaki Is Solomon Is Tuvalu Tokelau Is N Cook Is Marquesas Is Wallis & Futuna Rainfall Samoa Tuamotu Is Vanuatu Fiji Society Is and OLR Niue Tonga S Cook Is New Caledonia anomalies Pitcairn Australia Austral Is Dec 2004 New Zealand

-30-20-10102030 Sea Temperatures

Sea surface temperature anomalies (C) for December 2004 Mean sea surface temperatures (C) for December 2004 Marshall Is Marshall Is Caroline Is Caroline Is

E Kiribati W Kiribati E Kiribati Line Is EQUATOR W Kiribati Line Is EQUATOR Papua New-Guinea Nauru Papua New-Guinea Nauru Rawaki Is Rawaki Is Solomon Is Solomon Is Tuvalu Tokelau Is N Cook Is Marquesas Is Tuvalu Tokelau Is N Cook Is Marquesas Is Wallis Wallis & Futuna Samoa Tuamotu Is & Futuna Samoa Tuamotu Is

Vanuatu Vanuatu Fiji Society Is Fiji Society Is Niue Niue Tonga S Cook Is Tonga S Cook Is New Caledonia New Caledonia Pitcairn Pitcairn Australia Austral Is Australia Austral Is

New Zealand New Zealand

12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

Anomalies December 2004 Actual Seasonal Rainfall Outlook

Rainfall outlook map for Jan-Mar 2005 Marshall Is Caroline Is NO E Kiribati FORECAST W Kiribati ABOVE Line Is EQUATOR Papua New-Guinea Nauru Seasonal Rawaki Is Solomon Is BELOW Tuvalu Tokelau Is N Cook Is Marquesas Is

Wallis Samoa Tuamotu Is Rainfall & Futuna Vanuatu Fiji Society Is Niue BELOW Tonga Outlook New Caledonia S Cook Is Pitcairn Australia Austral Is NO FORECAST

New Zealand 10

Marshall Is Validation scores (%) for 3-month rainfall outlooksEastern Caroline Is Kiribati Western 0 Kiribati 70% 60% Nauru Rawaki Is

Papua Tuvalu New Guinea -10 80% Tokelau Is Marquesas 50% Solomon Islands Islands + N.Cook 70% Samoa Islands Vanuatu Society Tuamotu Is _ 70% Islands -20 Fiji Niue New 40% Caledonia S. Cook Tonga Islands Pitcairn 50% 50%Austral Is Validation -30 Australia 60% 50%

-40 New and 150 160Zealand 170 180 170 160 150 140 130 Validation of 3-month rainfall outlooks 80 Accuracy 70 60

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-10

Forecast number s kill, % better than chance % of correct forecasts Feedback

•Niue – Used for disaster preparation, crop sowing, health • Solomon Islands – Input into public awareness information on tropical cyclones • Cook Islands – Advice to farmers of impending wet periods – Advice to pearl industry • Tonga – Users are National Disaster Office, Water Board, Electric Power Board, Defence Services and Visitors Bureau Feedback

•Samoa “We, in the Pacific have now come about to realizing the potential usefulness and appropriateness; especially in having a more comprehensible and more knowledgeable tool of assisting our people; plan and prepare adequately for the months ahead. I commend and congratulate the producers and contributors of the Island Climate Update, and; especially the donors for without this financial support, this most valuable and useful tool to the Pacific Is shall never come forth.” Mr. Faatoia Malele, Acting Director, Samoa Meteorological Service, February 2001. Summary

‹ Multi-national collaboration – Responsible for the success ‹ Seasonal to Interannual Prediction – Major research and application for small island states Summary

‹ Reasonable predictability in large-scale climate – rainfall, wind patterns, Southern Oscillation trends ‹ Produced through multinational effort – Input from climate centres throughout the South Pacific, supported internationally ‹ Useful user feedback – preparation for floods and droughts – tropical cyclone guidance The Future

‹ Revamping ICU with new tools and products - soil moisture - links to national and regional programmes - part of regional climate information system ‹ WSSD follow up ‹ Millennium development goals - PI-GCOS - adaptation studies - UNFCCC