08 SMALL ISLANDS #51 Kyoto Protocol – an exploitative deal? 14 CLIMATE NEGOTIATIONS Doubt and desperation, but not defeat 18 CLIMATE VARIABILITY Forecasting the climate of the Pacific AGlobal bulletin warming on climate and theand third development world Issue 52 Issue December 51 April 2003 2004 The world’sworld’s ffragileragile islands Page 3 Issue 51 April 2004 www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo 03 The world’s fragile islands Agnès Sinaï argues that the Kyoto Protocol seems an exploitative deal 08 The Kyoto Protocol – what next? Lisa Schipper reports on the outcome of COP9 14 Adaptation Day at COP9 Hannah Reid and Saleemul Huq describe Adaptation Day at COP9 18 Island climate update Ashmita Gosai, Penehuro Lefale and Jim Salinger describe the highly successful seasonal climate bulletin 07 News 12 Conferences 23 Global demand destroys rain forest 25 Adaptation research – new insights Cover photo: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA is part of the DoC) Low-lying coral atolls, such as this one in the Maldives, are at serious risk due to sea-level rise. Photo: Martin Ferm, IVL 2 Tiempo Issue 51 April 2004 The world’s fragile islands Agnès Sinaï argues that, from the low-lying point of view of Pacific islanders or circumpolar-dwelling Inuit, the Kyoto Protocol seems an exploitative deal. ome 600 idyllic islands in the South with the international community to speed from the Caribbean to the Pacific via the Med- Pacific make up Micronesia; perhaps up the release of promised funds for vulner- iterranean and the South China Seas. All are not so idyllic any more, as in recent able countries to protect themselves from the on the front line because of the consequences years half of the 150,000 inhabitants effects of global warming. of climate change. have had their houses damaged or The demands of the Alliance of Small Is- The Maldives are preparing for the worst. destroyed by storms more frequent land States (aosis) are clear: urgent action to Work has begun on an artificial island: Hul- and violent than before. Sea levels safeguard food resources, build desalination humale is being built two metres above sea Srose in the region through the second half plants and dykes and develop solar energy. level, 20 minutes from the archipelago’s of the 20th century, and this, linked with Since its creation in 1994, aosis has been a overcrowded capital, Malé; it should even- exceptionally high tides and unpredictable highly active lobby of 43 tiny island nations tually be home to 100,000 people. It is sur- rain, exacerbated the intensity of the storms. rounded by coral reefs, bathed in the warm As coastal erosion increases, salt creeps into MAIN POINTS currents that flow around the islands. But the water table and ruins plantations, while Agnès Sinaï those in the North the reefs are under serious threat from rising rising temperatures nurture parasites that discusses the Kyoto who already pollute sea levels, surface water temperatures and attack copra plants. Protocol from the heavily and those in violent storms, as successive reports from the Joseph Komo, a member of the official low-lying perspective the South who want Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of Pacific islanders or to do the same. Micronesian delegation to the Ninth Con- (ipcc) have confirmed. circumpolar-dwelling It is concluded ference of the Parties to the United Nations Inuit. that smaller south- The islanders’ demands are seconded by an- Framework Convention on Climate Change She observes ern nations may have other vulnerable group: the Inuit Circumpo- (unfccc) in Milan, Italy, December 2003, says: that the Protocol to find their own lar Conference, which represents 155,000 “We are the first people to die as a direct result appears an exploita- systems for sustaina- Inuits from Canada, Alaska, Greenland and of climate change”. He went to Milan to plead tive deal between ble development. Russia. Its president, Sheila Watt-Cloutier, www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo 3 used the Milan conference to announce In- recycle three gigatonnes of carbon a year, the Parties to the unfccc in Delhi, the Indian uit Circumpolar Conference plans to bring the sustainable average is estimated at half environment minister, T R Balu, provoked a a legal action before the un Commission a tonne of greenhouse gas a year for each row by refusing to talk of reductions targets on Human Rights. The Conference accuses person worldwide. The average resident of that might apply to countries like India. The countries that have refused to sign the Kyoto Burkina Faso could increase his or her pro- small island states felt betrayed by this in- Protocol – United States, Russia and Australia duction of greenhouse gases fivefold from a transigence. – of violating human rights by imperilling current 100 kg. A citizen of the United States The disparity between North and South the ancestral ways of life of the North Pole’s ought to pollute ten times less than the cur- is exacerbated by disagreements between aboriginal people. rent average of 5,000 kg a year. Southern countries. The Group of 77 repre- “Today, the earth is changing under our Clearly, the polluting countries are al- sents diverse interests often diametrically feet”, says Watt-Cloutier. Canadian clima- tologists are predicting the unthinkable: If some of the more alarming predictions are 50 years from now, the northwest passage ‘acc ‘ urate, there would be a meteorological linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans via the Northern Canadian islands will be com- catastrophe in the name of equality. pletely ice-free in summer. ’’ The inhabitants of the frozen north are ready too heavily industrialized to have any opposed over environmental concerns. The in the same boat as the Micronesians of the hope of meeting a target of equal pollution great deforesters, China and Brazil, and tropics, a reminder that climate disturbances around the globe even without taking past the Opec member states, generally oppose affect the entire global system. The experts emissions into account. And emissions from regulation. The Opec states even demand warn that, after thermal expansion, the melt- large, rapidly developing countries such as financial compensation for potential losses ing of glaciers and ice caps is likely to be one India, China, Brazil and Saudi Arabia will in oil revenue in the event of a reduction in of the main causes of rises in sea level in the increase substantially over the next few years. fossil fuel use. On the other side are the most 21st century. From the poles to the Maldives, It is predicted that their emissions will equal vulnerable countries, such as Mozambique, every area of our biosphere is linked, along those of the industrialized countries by 2050. which suffered severe flooding in 2000, and with all the creatures that live in it. But the Their development may reduce the discrep- the Pacific micro-states, which have acquired areas most vulnerable to climate change are ancy between the rich and poor world, but political weight by turning themselves into on the fringes of the industrialized world, it defies environmental concerns. If some symbols. an injustice worsened by the fact that these of the ipcc’s more alarming predictions are With multilateralism stalled, mostly be- regions’ contribution to global warming is accurate, there would be a meteorological cause of United States isolationism, the fight minimal, while that of the Northern indus- catastrophe in the name of equality. against climate change begins to look like an trialized countries is massive. Yet countries such as China and India do international political sham. The Kyoto Pro- From a logical mathematical perspective, not want to consider emission reductions un- tocol has been buried under casuistry from each individual should be entitled to an equal til the industrialized countries reduce their mostly Western ‘experts’. It has been said share in our ecosystem. As the biosphere can own pollution. At the 2002 Conference of that these interminable talking shops keep 4 Tiempo Issue 51 April 2004 the discussion process alive and that even a sham is better than nothing. The South South North Project The Protocol is responsible for an impor- tant innovation: economic mechanisms that put a price on the tonne of carbon emissions. Thanks to these, the atmosphere is no longer free, but can be traded on the international market. Theoretically all we need to do is NETWORKING through the climate window. Brazil, South ensure that the rarity and fragility of this Africa, Bangladesh and Indonesia face commodity is reflected in its price. The South South North Project is similar challenges in being ready to seize The Clean Development Mechanism (cdm) a network aimed at helping public such opportunities. is the only tool of North/South cooperation and private stakeholders develop The South South North Project can help proposed by the Kyoto Protocol. It allows for the necessary confidence for build capacity in this field for host govern- industrialized countries to get additional dealing effectively with the Clean ments, cdm project owners, their technical emissions rights by helping reduce pollution Development Mechanism. intermediaries and project beneficiaries. in Southern countries. Governments, busi- It can help decision-making authorities to nesses and other organizations in the North The Project consists of organizations, re- handle applications for cdm approval with provide funding and expertise for projects search institutions and consultants grou- objectivity. in the South that aim to reduce pollution ped into one developmental organization. The Project fosters capacity by providing through the use of environmentally-friendly It operates in Brazil, South Africa, Bangla- training, development facilitation services technology, such as solar and water power, desh and Indonesia. The South South North and technical support as well as by ensur- cogeneration plants and cleaner fuels.