The three national parties faced challenging and difficult 27th that placed the government under huge pressure summers in 2018. Against a backdrop of NAFTA to make a deal. No deal was reached, but the President uncertainty, a setback on pipeline approvals and sent a note to Congress to advise that he intends to increasing random gun violence in Canadian cities, a renew NAFTA with Canada possibly included. period of volatility lies ahead that will likely continue Meanwhile, the negotiations are continuing in through to the October 2019 election. Washington, with another more reasonable deadline— the end of September. The first casualty of the summer U.S.-Mexico talks was the continued support the Conservatives had given to the government’s approach to NAFTA since the beginning of the renegotiation last year. On August 27th, Conservative shadow foreign affairs minister Erin O’Toole said the U.S.-Mexico deal meant that “the Trudeau government has failed to advance Canada’s trade interests,” and that “it was critical for Canada to be at the negotiation table as a serious partner.” Several commentators also referred to Mexico’s participation in the bilateral talks as a “double-cross” of Canada. Adding to Liberal challenges was the August 30th The Liberals Federal Court of Appeal decision that at a minimum During the summer, the Trudeau government was delays federal approval of the Trans Mountain pipeline forced to the sidelines of NAFTA for weeks as the expansion on the grounds of inadequate consultation American and Mexican negotiators huddled in with Indigenous opponents and the National Energy Washington, ultimately reaching a draft “Agreement in Board’s failure to consider the impacts of increased Principle” on a bilateral deal in late August. While the tanker traffic on orcas off the lower mainland of B.C. draft deal arrived at decent compromises on North American auto content and Mexican labour rates that The decision has created a political mess for the Prime are likely acceptable to Canada, it also went much Minister and the Liberals. In response, Alberta Premier further than purely U.S.-Mexico issues, addressing Rachel Notley immediately withdrew her support for intellectual property, the sunset clause and agreement the federal climate change plan, leaving in ruins Mr. to eliminate dispute settlement panels for certain anti- Trudeau’s “grand bargain”— the twinning of Trans dumping cases, a move that complicates the talks with Mountain balanced by national carbon reduction Canada. requirements—and potentially leaving taxpayers owning a $3.5 billion pipeline with an uncertain future – President Trump then imposed a one-week deadline for and an expansion that they may not ultimately Canada to come onside with the U.S.-Mexico deal, be able to build. resulting in feverish talks during the week of August 1 The federal court ruling also exposed a significant gap quarter of 2018, totalling just over $6 million, and between commitments and performance on the Prime almost doubling the Liberals’ total of $3.1 million. Minister’s many promises on Indigenous reconciliation, as well as calling on the federal government to become more directly involved in ensuring that the requirements of the “duty to consult” have been met. The Conservatives The Conservatives suffered other self-inflicted wounds over the summer. They released, then were forced quickly to withdraw, a mid-July attack ad that showed a black man pulling a suitcase headed for a broken chain link fence, presumably about to illegally enter Canada. The man was walking over a tweet by the Prime Minister: the words “faith” and “diversity” could be The Conservatives had their own existential crises to clearly seen on the PM’s tweet. deal with over the summer, all of their own making. In Mistakes of this kind starkly illustrate the dangers all mid-August Maxime Bernier launched a Twitter attack parties face in attempting to spin issues such as asylum against Justin Trudeau for his “extreme multiculturalism seekers, immigration and diversity into partisan and cult of diversity,” claiming that immigration has strategies. The Conservatives fell into the same trap become “a big-government policy of social engineering later in the summer when they hastily sprang to the for ideological and electoral purposes.” defence of Diane Blain when she heckled the Prime Broadly attacked for “dog whistle” politics and racism, Minister over immigration in Quebec and he sharply Bernier was disavowed by Conservative Leader Andrew rebuked her. It later emerged that Ms. Blain is a Scheer and shadow immigration minister Michelle member of an alt-right organization called Storm Rempel. Bernier then announced his departure from Alliance, that was once affiliated with the Soldiers of the party the very morning the Conservative policy Odin, a virulently anti-immigrant group with affiliates convention opened in Halifax, accompanied by a across Canada. promise to start his own political party, although no If they are serious about being an alternative Tory MPs have followed Bernier out the door. Mr. government, the Conservatives need to up their game Scheer gave a well-received convention speech, so the on this front and stop shooting themselves in the foot. immediate crisis was put to rest, although a Nanos poll in early September reported that 17 per cent of Canadians say they are open to voting for a new conservative party led by Maxime Bernier. Meanwhile, Conservative fundraising remained robust in the second 2 The NDP then New Democrats should be in a more cheerful mood than they are now. But that’s a rather daunting It would be hard to characterize 2018 as a banner year list of “ifs”. for the NDP. Leader Jagmeet Singh and the party have been rocked by a series of events—some mistakes of Current Polling Trends their own making, others the legacy of the difficult Nanos Weekly Tracking – Mulcair years, and still others simply bad luck. The party September 11, 2018 is working hard to hit what they have called their “reset button” at a pre-session caucus in Vancouver this week, where Mr. Singh will publicly launch his effort to win a seat in the House in the riding of Burnaby South having been vacated by MP Kennedy Stewart. It is a high stakes gamble for the Ontario-based Mr. Singh, who has had a hard time establishing himself in public awareness from outside the Commons. The party’s finances continue to struggle—only $872,000 was raised in Q2 2018, courtesy of the fund- raising drift that arose in the declining months of the Mulcair era. New faces have been hired, new experts retained, and insiders are hopeful, but the next quarterly report will be anxiously watched by New Democrat activists and the party’s competitors. The Trans-Mountain pipeline decision may provide a For months, polls have shown the Liberals consistently short term, a win for the B.C. NDP government who maintaining a slight lead over the Conservatives in the have long opposed the project and rely on the BC national topline numbers, with the NDP lagging far Greens for support in the legislature, however it is behind and sliding, to the apparent benefit of the ruling important to note that the pipeline issue trails well Liberals. Horse-race standings this far out from an behind housing affordability as the single most election are always to be taken with a grain of salt since important issue facing the province. The decision will voters are not actually being pressed to make a true probably increase the number of anti-pipeline voters in ballot choice, but there are several reasons to think Burnaby South willing to support Mr. Singh. It is, there is vulnerability for the governing party: however, difficult news for the NDP Alberta • Recently, Liberal support has often been in minority government, and will remain a significant issue that territory (35-40 per cent); divides the federal party. Ontario is the one ray of sunlight for New Democrats, where Andrea Horwath • Since plummeting immediately after the last federal appears to be off to a strong start establishing herself as election, the long-term trend for the Conservatives the opposition leader and challenging the newly-minted has been positive and electoral victory is certainly Ford government daily. plausible: 2016 weekly tracking was mostly in the 25-28 per cent range, 2017 saw it climb to above 30 If six to eight months from now, Jagmeet Singh has won per cent more often than not, and 2018 has seen his byelection convincingly, the caucus grumbling has the party nudge further upward to the 33-35 per quietened, and the party’s fund-raising turns around, cent range; 3 • Events have recently provided some new threats to lead, the federal horse race is much more competitive public perceptions of the government’s now than it has been since the last election. performance: The National Economy ➢ More provincial governments (some newly Despite the continuing uncertainties surrounding the elected) are taking adversarial positions on future of NAFTA and pipeline construction, the policies such as carbon pricing, threatening the Canadian economy has performed relatively well in the effectiveness of a major policy initiative of the first eight months of 2018: government; • Finance Canada reported a budgetary surplus of ➢ The Federal Court ruling on Trans Mountain $1.1 billion in June 2018, compared to a surplus of introduces a new element to an already only $16 million in June 2017. confusing mix of reputational challenges relating to relations with Indigenous • GDP grew by 2.9 per cent in the second quarter— communities, resource development, climate just short of the 3 per cent predicted by analysts— change and the wisdom of the decision to invest fuelled by an increase in exports of 6.3 per cent.