Chapter 5 Barangay Electrification Plan

5.1 Procedure of the Barangay Electrification Plan

5.1.1 Electrification Target

The government has set the target of electrifying 100% of the barangays by 2006 and to achieve 90% household electrification by 2017. In accordance with this target, the Study team has set up a target of the total (100%) barangay electrification by 2006 in Palawan Province as well. In the next three (3) years up to 2006, barangay electrification will be the main focus of the Master Plan. After achieving entire barangay electrification, the focus will move on to the improvement of household electrification. Based on the present electrification level and information obtained through the Study including demand forecasts, capacity to pay, fund availability, the plan for improving household electrification will be determined.

?%

Barangay Electrification Ratio

HH Electrification Ratio

100%

2003 2006 2015

Figure 5.1.1 Electrification Target

5.1.2 Barangay Electrification Program

There are 431 barangays in Palawan. The number of electrified barangays was 271 as of December 2003. The remaining 160 barangays will be targeted in the Study.

5-1 5.1.3 Prioritization of Barangay Electrification

It is impossible to electrify the 160 barangays all at once, due to the limitation of various resources. Therefore, some prioritization will be necessary. The Study has considered three factors for the prioritization;

(1) Electrification cost and O&M cost Electrification cost and O&M cost should be the most important factors to prioritize barangay electrification since the government development fund is limited and low electricity tariffs at present may not be able to cover the O&M cost.

(2) Social and economic benefits Social and economic benefits will be considered by putting higher priority on socially important areas and social and economical development areas among the un-electrified areas. This may not lead to the most affordable solution, but economical feasibility will be taken into consideration.

(3) Social equity One of the objectives of electrification is to target poverty alleviation and narrowing the poverty gap between areas. Electrification should contribute to well-balanced social and economical development in the province and improve living conditions in the areas.

In MEDP 2003, criteria and their weightings for the electrification projects for un-electrified areas that are unviable have been determined. The cost factor is given the highest priority.

Table 5.1.1 MEDP Electrification Criteria Criteria Indicator Weight 1) Low Level of Electrification Access to Electricity by Families by Province 20% 2) Economic Efficiency Connection Cost per Households 50% 3) Eradication of Poverty Poverty Incident of Families by Province 15% 4) Equity of Regional Development GRDP per Capita per Household 10% 5) Environment Friendly Technologies 5% Source: 2003 MEDP

5.1.4 Electrification Method

Three electrification methods are considered in the study: (1) Extension of the existing EC-grid, (2) a mini-grid system and (3) a stand-alone system. The appropriate electrification method for each un-electrified barangay will be selected from these three options.

(1) Extension of the existing EC-grids: Electrification connecting to the existing distribution lines of ECs, most of which areas are provided with 24-hour electricity.

5-2 (2) Mini-grid systems: There will be electrification by a power plant (micro hydro or diesel) that supplies power to the households nearby, where grid expansion may be difficult, physically or economically. Its generation capacity will be above 30kW.

(3) Stand-alone systems: There will be electrification by SHS (Solar Home System), BCS (Battery Charging System) and a small-scale diesel generator (mini-diesel generator).

Table 5.1.2 Electrification Method Power system Capacity & Households Power sources 1) Extension of the EC grid Connection to the existing EC-grid with 24-hour supply 2) Mini-grid system Cap.>30kW • Diesel Electrification by a power plant HH>300 • Hydropower (Mini or Micro) that supply power nearby 3) Stand-alone system Cap.<30kW • SHS HH<300 • BCS (Battery Charging System) • Mini-diesel generator

5.1.5 Methodology to Select an Appropriate Electrification Method

An appropriate electrification method is determined for each un-electrified barangay from the electrification methods described above. The methodology for determination is as follows:

(1) Screening by restricted areas for development and on-going electrification programs This screening eliminates barangays which are located in restricted areas of ECAN (refer to chapter 3.7.1 (1)) and barangays where electrification projects are already ongoing for a target barangay for electrification with the EC-grid extension and a mini-grid system. A stand-alone electrification method is determined for these eliminated barangays by reason of ECAN restricted areas.

(2) Posibility of EC-grid extension The possibility of an EC-grid distribution line extension will be examined. The long-run marginal cost (LRMC) of a mini-grid system (diesel or micro hydropower) with the capacity for electrifying a barangay is compared to the LRMC of EC-grid extension (see Figure 5.1.2). When the LRMC of EC-grid extension is more economical than the LRMC of a mini-grid system, EC-grid extension is selected as the electrification method for a barangay. Considering future extension of a distribution line, it is better for a barangay to use EC-grid extension. Therefore, although a barangay is already electrified by a mini-grid or stand-alone system, the possibility of EC-grid extension is examined for the electrified barangay.

5-3 Fig.5.1.2 Annual Cost of Distribution Line Expansion & Diesel &Hydro

45 Distribution Line Extension 40 Distribution (Php/kWh) 35 Diesel (Php/kWh) 30 Hydro (Php/kWh)

25 Mini-grid (Hydro)

20

Annual Annual Cost (Php/kWh) 15

10 Mini-grid (Diesel)

5 Long-run Marginal Cost (Php/kWh) Cost (Php/kWh) Marginal Long-run

0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Distance from Tapping Point (km)

Figure 5.1.2 Cost Comparison of EC-Grid Extension and Mini-Grid System

(3) Examine the possibility of a mini-grid system The possibility of electrification by a mini-grid system is examined for barangays to which EC-grid extension is not applied above. A mini-grid system requires a minimum capacity of demand to become feasible. Diesel generators with a reliable power-supply-use would be more than 30kW in capacity. Micro hydropower also requires a capacity of 30kW from an economical point of view. According to the socio-economic survey (refer to Section 4.2) and the demand forecast (see Section 5.1.3 (4), forthcoming), average household power demand is estimated to be 106W in the target electrification area. Therefore, 30kW demand capacity translates into approximately 300 households. In the Study, barangays with more than or equal to 300 potential households will be suitable for electrification using a mini-grid system. LRMC of diesel and micro hydropower is compared and a power system with a lower LRMC is selected for the electrification of the barangay. On the other hand, barangays with less than 300 potential households will not be feasible for electrification using a mini-grid system, and so consequently a stand-alone system will be considered.

(4) Stand-alone system A stand-alone system has 3 candidate methods for electrification (SHS, BCS and a mini-diesel) and there is no determined way for the selection of each method. For example, we can select an appropriate method by comparing annual cost per household in each method. An example shown in Figure 5.1.3 shows that a mini-diesel generator system would provide electricity at lower cost if more than 15 households are concentrated.

5-4 9,000 8,000 Mini-Diesel 7,000 SHS 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 SHS Mini-Diesel 2,000 1,000

Annual Cost per Household 0 Production cost (P/Household) 0 5 10 15 20 25 Number of Target Household Figure 5.1.3 Cost Comparison between SHS and Mini-Diesel

5.2 Power Demand Forecast

5.2.1 Target of Power Demand Forecast

There are two different approaches to power demand forecasts in general. One is the macro-method and the other is the micro-method. In the macro-method, future power demand is forecasted through the analysis of the historical correlation between power demand and an economic indicator such as GDP or a historical trend of power demand. In the micro-method, the components of power demand are estimated individually and future power demand is obtained by adding up the components. Each method has its own advantages and disadvantages. For data collection, the macro-method needs time-series data over a long period. In contrast, the micro-method requires a wide variety of data. Therefore, the employed demand forecasting method depends on the target of the power demand forecast. The targets for the power demand forecast in the Study is classified into the three areas1 below in the electricity supply system.

(a) Electrified areas by NPC-SPUG and ECs (PALECO and BISELCO) (b) Electrified areas by SHS, BCS, BAPA, LGU, others (c) Un-electrified areas

NPC-SPUG and ECs make their own power demand forecasts every year. In the case of (b), potential power demand is generally forecasted in advance of the implementation of an electrification project. However, it is not general to continue conducting power demand forecasts after electrification. Therefore, area (b) is the same (c) as un-electrified areas from the viewpoint of power demand forecast.

1 The number of Barangays in (a), (b), and (c) are 212, 59, and 160 respectively. (Dec. 31, 2003)

5-5 For these reasons, the target of the power demand forecast in the Study was finally classified into two areas. In addition, the target year of the power demand forecast in the Study is 2015. In this section, power demand forecasts in the area of (b) and (c) are discussed (see Chapter 6.1 for power demand forecast in the area of (a)).

5.2.2 Electrified Areas by SHS, BCS, BAPA, LGU and Un-Electrified Areas

Some barangays obtain electricity through stand-alone systems such as SHS, BCS or a mini-grid system managed by BAPA, LGU and others. As mentioned above, potential power demand is generally forecasted in advance of the implementation of an electrification project and the feasibility of the project and the specifications of power equipment are examined. However, once the electrification takes place, it is usual for no further power demand forecasts to be conducted. Consequently, there are no historical data on the actual demand of such electrified areas as well as un-electrified areas. Therefore, the micro-method is better than the macro-method for power demand forecasts for such areas. The process of the micro-method in the Study is shown below.

(a) Projection of population and potential households in 2015 (b) Estimation of target households for electrification (c) Estimation of unit energy consumption and peak demand (d) Estimation of potential power demand in 2015

(1) Projection of population and potential households in 2015 Population of each barangay is projected using the population growth rate based on the annual average growth rate of the municipality that includes the barangay in the CENSUS population 1995 and 2000. An average household size is also projected by the same method as a population projection. Finally, the number of potential households in 2015 is calculated using the projected population and the average household size. Table 5.2.1 shows the number of potential households in 2015 estimated by using these methods.

5-6 Table 5.2.1 Number of Potential Households in 2015

Presenｔ Municipality Barangay Pupolation Projection Potential Households Projection e-Status Name Name 2000(Base 2005 2006 2010 2015 2000(Base 2005 2006 2010 2015 PALECO Apoc-Apoc 974 1,149 1,187 1,351 1,583 204 241 250 284 334 PALECO Apo-Aporawan 816 961 993 1,131 1,325 164 193 200 228 268 PALECO Baraki 679 801 827 941 1,101 125 147 153 174 204 PALECO Cabigaan 1,399 1,649 1,703 1,939 2,272 290 342 354 403 474 PALECO Gogongan 487 574 593 674 790 111 131 136 154 181 PALECO Iraan (a) 1,336 1,575 1,627 1,851 2,171 304 358 372 423 498 PALECO Isaub 1,830 2,157 2,228 2,536 2,972 365 430 446 508 597 PALECO Jose Rizal 1,242 1,464 1,512 1,721 2,016 246 290 301 342 402 PALECO Mabini (a) 607 715 738 840 985 127 150 155 176 208 PALECOABORLAN Magbabadil 1,049 1,237 1,278 1,454 1,704 224 264 274 312 367 PALECO Plaridel 2,390 2,818 2,911 3,313 3,882 507 598 620 705 829 PALECO Poblacion (ABORLAN) 1,876 2,212 2,285 2,601 3,048 359 423 439 500 588 PALECO Ramon Magsaysay 1,745 2,056 2,124 2,417 2,832 356 419 435 495 582 PALECO San Juan (a) 2,214 2,611 2,697 3,071 3,598 464 547 567 646 760 PALECO Tagpait 804 949 980 1,114 1,305 166 196 203 231 271 PALECO Tigman 1,426 1,682 1,737 1,977 2,317 272 321 333 379 445 BCS Aporawan 2,522 2,972 3,070 3,494 4,095 509 600 622 708 833 Un-Electrified Culandanum (a) 854 1,009 1,042 1,186 1,389 156 184 191 217 256 Un-Electrified Sagpangan 1,238 1,459 1,507 1,716 2,011 287 338 351 399 470 PALECO Abagat (Pob) 347 498 535 710 1,006 85 122 132 175 248 PALECO Bangcal (Pob) (a) 235 338 363 483 684 50 72 78 103 147 PALECO Cambian (Pob) 350 502 539 717 1,018 87 125 134 179 255 Un-Electrified Algeciras 3,433 4,930 5,293 7,035 9,971 694 997 1,074 1,428 2,031 Un-Electrified Conception (a) 2,743 3,939 4,229 5,621 7,968 505 725 781 1,039 1,477 AGUTAYA Un-Electrified Diit 1,417 2,034 2,184 2,902 4,114 257 369 398 528 752 Un-Electrified Maracanao 219 314 337 449 636 34 49 53 70 99 Un-Electrified Matarawis 181 261 280 373 529 30 43 47 62 88 Un-Electrified Villafria 592 849 912 1,211 1,718 119 171 184 244 348 Un-Electrified Villasol 896 1,287 1,382 1,836 2,603 179 257 277 368 524 PALECO Poblacion (Centro) 2,642 2,722 2,738 2,802 2,882 531 547 552 565 584 PALECO Tinintinan 804 829 834 854 879 148 153 154 158 163 PALECO Tudela (Calandagan) 1,822 1,877 1,888 1,932 1,987 325 335 338 346 357 Un-Electrified Balogo 517 532 535 547 562 96 99 100 102 105 Un-Electrified Dagman 773 798 803 823 848 157 162 164 168 174 Un-Electrified Dalayawon 418 430 432 444 459 79 81 82 84 87 Un-Electrified ARACELI Lumacad 656 676 680 696 716 102 105 106 109 112 Un-Electrified Madoldolon 561 576 579 591 606 87 89 90 92 95 Un-Electrified Mauringuen 743 763 767 784 806 145 149 150 154 158 Un-Electrified Osmena (a) 684 704 708 724 744 144 148 150 153 158 Un-Electrified San Jose De Oro 307 317 319 327 337 53 55 55 57 59 Un-Electrified Santo Nino (a) 384 394 396 404 414 79 81 82 83 86 Un-Electrified Taloto 559 574 577 589 604 104 107 108 110 113 PALECO Poblacion I (BALABAC) 184 216 223 253 295 39 46 47 54 63 PALECO Poblacion II (BALABAC) 289 339 350 397 463 56 66 68 77 90 PALECO Poblacion III (BALABAC) 321 377 389 441 515 66 78 80 91 107 PALECO Poblacion IV (BALABAC) 400 470 485 551 643 87 102 106 120 141 PALECO Poblacion V (BALABAC) 326 383 395 449 525 63 74 77 87 102 PALECO Poblacion VI (BALABAC) 777 912 941 1,067 1,247 161 189 196 222 260 Un-Electrified Agutayan 482 566 584 663 775 109 128 133 150 177 Un-Electrified Bancalaan 6,435 7,557 7,799 8,848 10,329 1,191 1,399 1,449 1,644 1,926 Un-Electrified Bugsuk (New Cagayancillo) 882 1,037 1,070 1,214 1,417 173 203 211 239 280 Un-Electrified Catagupan 1,189 1,396 1,635 275 323 380 BALABAC 1,441 1,908 334 445 Un-Electrified Indalawan 925 1,085 1,120 1,270 1,483 168 197 204 231 271 Un-Electrified Malaking Ilog 663 779 804 912 1,067 134 157 163 185 217 Un-Electrified Mangsee 6,143 7,214 7,445 8,447 9,863 938 1,102 1,141 1,295 1,517 Un-Electrified Melville 884 1,039 1,072 1,216 1,419 173 203 211 239 280 Un-Electrified Pandanan 532 625 645 732 855 110 129 134 152 178 Un-Electrified Pasig 294 346 357 405 473 75 88 91 104 122 Un-Electrified Rabor 361 424 438 496 580 84 99 102 116 136 Un-Electrified Ramos 1,381 1,622 1,674 1,899 2,219 265 311 322 366 429 Un-Electrified Salang 1,977 2,323 2,398 2,721 3,177 402 472 489 555 651 Un-Electrified Sebaring 786 923 953 1,083 1,264 154 181 187 213 249 PALECO Bono-bono 2,259 2,819 2,944 3,504 4,337 494 616 646 769 955 PALECO Inogbong 2,740 3,420 3,572 4,251 5,262 560 699 733 872 1,083 PALECO Marangas (Pob) 5,286 6,596 6,889 8,198 10,147 1,007 1,257 1,317 1,567 1,947 Un-Electrified Bulalacao (a) 1,477 1,843 1,925 2,290 2,834 281 351 368 437 543 Un-Electrified Buliluyan 1,181 1,473 1,538 1,830 2,266 211 263 276 328 408 Un-Electrified Culandanum (b) 2,788 3,479 3,634 4,324 5,352 605 755 792 942 1,170 Un-Electrified Igang igang 945 1,180 1,232 1,466 1,816 213 266 279 332 412 Un-Electrified Iwahig 1,623 2,026 2,116 2,518 3,118 357 446 467 556 691 Un-Electrified Malihud 1,249 1,560 1,629 1,938 2,398 270 337 353 420 522 Un-Electrified Malitub 377 471 492 586 726 99 124 130 154 192 Un-Electrified Ocayan 1,412 1,762 1,840 2,189 2,709 289 361 378 450 559 BATARAZA Un-Electrified Puring 594 741 774 921 1,141 142 177 186 221 275 Un-Electrified Rio Tuba 7,619 9,508 9,930 11,816 14,625 1,471 1,836 1,924 2,290 2,845 Un-Electrified Sandoval (a) 1,971 2,460 2,569 3,057 3,783 429 535 561 668 829 Un-Electrified Sapa 951 1,186 1,239 1,474 1,824 240 299 314 373 464 Un-Electrified Sarong 1,399 1,745 1,823 2,169 2,685 314 392 411 489 607 Un-Electrified Sumbiling 1,808 2,258 2,358 2,805 3,472 426 532 558 663 824 Un-Electrified Tabud 696 869 908 1,080 1,336 159 199 208 248 307 Un-Electrified Tagnato 538 671 701 835 1,033 112 140 146 174 217 Un-Electrified Tagolango 417 522 545 648 801 117 146 153 182 226 Un-Electrified Taratak 1,422 1,774 1,853 2,205 2,729 297 371 388 462 574 Un-Electrified Tarusan 2,662 3,323 3,471 4,130 5,113 565 705 739 880 1,093 PALECO Amas 1,472 1,718 1,771 1,999 2,319 310 362 374 423 492 PALECO Aribungos 3,790 4,421 4,557 5,143 5,965 760 887 917 1,035 1,205 PALECO Barong-barong 3,088 3,603 3,714 4,192 4,862 563 657 680 767 893 PALECOBROOKE'S Calasaguen 2,231 2,603 2,683 3,028 3,513 429 501 518 584 681 PALECOPOINT Ipilan (a) 4,349 5,073 5,229 5,902 6,846 869 1,014 1,049 1,184 1,378 PALECO Maasin (a) 2,744 3,201 3,299 3,723 4,318 559 652 675 761 886 PALECO Mainit 1,974 2,304 2,375 2,680 3,109 418 488 505 570 663 PALECO Malis 1,866 2,176 2,243 2,531 2,936 384 448 463 523 609

5-7 Table 5.2.1 Number of Potential Households in 2015 (Continued)

Presenｔ Municipality Barangay Pupolation Projection Potential Households Projection e-Status Name Name 2000(Base 2005 2006 2010 2015 2000(Base 2005 2006 2010 2015 PALECO Mambalot 1,830 2,135 2,201 2,485 2,882 355 414 429 484 563 PALECO Oring-oring 1,470 1,714 1,767 1,994 2,314 287 335 346 391 455 PALECO Pangobilian 6,145 7,169 7,389 8,339 9,673 1,073 1,252 1,295 1,461 1,701 PALECO Poblacion I (Brooke's Point) 4,911 5,731 5,907 6,667 7,733 944 1,102 1,140 1,286 1,497 PALECOBROOKE'S Poblacion II (Brooke's Point 3,378 3,941 4,062 4,586 5,320 689 804 832 939 1,093 PALECOPOINT Salogon 2,910 3,395 3,499 3,949 4,581 597 697 721 813 947 PALECO Samarenana 1,986 2,316 2,387 2,694 3,125 412 480 497 561 653 PALECO Saraza 2,170 2,531 2,609 2,945 3,416 442 516 533 602 701 PALECO Tubtub 1,223 1,426 1,470 1,659 1,924 240 280 290 327 380 Un-Electrified Imulnod 1,363 1,590 1,639 1,849 2,145 303 353 366 413 480 BISELCO Bogtong 620 725 748 846 984 123 144 149 168 197 BISELCO Buluang 2,199 2,571 2,651 2,998 3,485 396 463 479 542 632 BISELCO Conception (b) 855 1,000 1,031 1,165 1,355 171 200 207 234 273 BISELCO New Busuanga 1,140 1,333 1,375 1,555 1,809 213 249 258 292 340 BISELCO Old Busuanga 639 747 770 871 1,012 138 161 167 189 220 BISELCO Sagrada 939 1,099 1,133 1,281 1,489 197 231 239 270 315 BISELCO Salvacion (Pob) 2,023 2,365 2,439 2,757 3,205 377 441 456 516 602 BISELCO San Rafael (a) 524 613 632 715 832 79 92 96 108 126 BUSUANGA BISELCO Santo Nino (b) 801 936 965 1,091 1,268 165 193 200 226 263 BCS Panlaitan 2,224 2,601 2,682 3,033 3,528 411 481 497 563 657 BCS Quezon 1,106 1,293 1,333 1,508 1,754 207 242 250 283 331 BCS San Isidro (a) 711 832 858 970 1,130 130 152 157 178 208 Un-Electrified Burabod 332 389 401 454 528 63 74 76 86 101 Un-Electrified Cheey 1,893 2,213 2,282 2,580 2,999 345 403 417 472 551 Un-Electrified Halsey 456 533 550 622 723 85 99 103 116 136 Un-Electrified Maglalambay 931 1,091 1,125 1,271 1,478 154 180 187 211 246 PALECO Bantayan (Pob) 312 317 318 322 327 40 41 41 41 42 PALECO Calsada (Pob) 201 206 207 211 216 28 29 29 30 30 PALECO Convento (Pob) 318 323 324 328 333 45 46 46 47 47 PALECO Lipot North 232 237 238 242 247 35 36 36 37 38 PALECO Lipot South 181 186 187 191 196 20 21 21 21 22 PALECOCAGAYAN Tacas (Pob) 177 182 183 187 192 27 28 28 29 30 PALECO-CILLO Wahig (Pob) 298 303 304 308 313 41 42 42 43 43 BCS Santa Cruz (a) 1,016 1,031 1,034 1,046 1,061 152 154 155 157 160 BCS Talaga 984 999 1,002 1,014 1,029 153 155 156 158 161 Un-Electrified Magsaysay (a) 1,464 1,489 1,494 1,514 1,539 232 236 238 241 246 Un-Electrified Mampio 616 626 628 636 646 92 93 94 95 97 Un-Electrified Nusa 540 550 552 560 570 82 84 84 85 87 BISELCO Barangay I (Pob) (CORON) 2,419 2,902 3,007 3,467 4,129 447 536 558 643 768 BISELCO Barangay II (Pob) (CORON 712 852 883 1,018 1,213 140 168 174 201 240 BISELCO Barangay III (Pob) (CORON 556 667 691 797 948 113 136 141 163 194 BISELCO Barangay IV (Pob) (CORON 586 702 727 837 997 128 153 159 184 219 BISELCO Barangay V (Pob) (CORON 2,246 2,693 2,791 3,219 3,835 463 555 577 666 796 BISELCO Barangay VI 955 1,145 1,187 1,369 1,630 182 218 227 262 313 BISELCO Bintuan 1,603 1,922 1,992 2,297 2,737 358 429 447 515 616 BISELCO Borac 1,651 1,980 2,052 2,366 2,818 340 408 424 489 585 BISELCO Decalachao 1,167 1,399 1,450 1,674 1,995 228 273 284 328 393 BISELCO Guadalupe 1,468 1,760 1,824 2,104 2,506 297 356 370 427 511 BISELCO San Nicolas (a) 1,707 2,046 2,120 2,446 2,913 290 348 362 417 499 BISELCOCORON Tagunpay (a) 4,779 5,730 5,938 6,848 8,156 881 1,056 1,099 1,267 1,515 BISELCO Turda 1,885 2,261 2,343 2,702 3,219 346 415 432 498 595 BCS Bulalacao (b) 2,045 2,451 2,540 2,930 3,490 410 491 511 590 705 BCS Banuang Daan 546 655 679 783 933 101 121 126 145 174 BCS Buena Vista (a) 705 845 876 1,010 1,203 139 167 173 200 239 BCS Cabugao 1,696 2,034 2,108 2,431 2,897 319 383 398 459 549 BCS Decabobo 810 971 1,006 1,161 1,383 145 174 181 209 249 BCS Lajala 1,233 1,479 1,533 1,769 2,107 264 317 329 380 454 BCS Malawig 538 645 668 770 915 105 126 131 151 180 BCS Marcilla 944 1,132 1,173 1,353 1,612 185 222 231 266 318 BCS San Jose (a) 922 1,105 1,145 1,321 1,573 175 210 218 252 301 BCS Tara 1,070 1,284 1,331 1,535 1,830 208 250 260 300 358 PALECO Balading 842 920 936 1,004 1,094 161 176 180 193 211 PALECO Bangcal (Pob) (b) 1,114 1,218 1,240 1,330 1,449 242 265 270 290 317 PALECO Cabigsing (Pob) 1,653 1,807 1,839 1,972 2,149 344 376 384 412 451 PALECO Caburian 443 484 493 529 576 97 106 108 116 127 PALECO Catadman (Pob) 995 1,088 1,107 1,188 1,295 193 211 216 231 253 PALECO Funda 476 521 530 569 620 92 101 103 110 121 PALECO Lagaoriao (Pob) 565 618 629 674 735 113 124 126 135 148 PALECO Lungsod (Pob) 985 1,077 1,096 1,175 1,280 199 218 222 238 261 PALECOCUYO Maringian 1,333 1,457 1,483 1,591 1,735 271 296 303 325 355 PALECO Pawa 1,493 1,632 1,661 1,781 1,940 284 310 317 340 372 PALECO San Carlos 1,322 1,446 1,472 1,578 1,719 249 272 278 298 326 PALECO Suba 2,541 2,778 2,827 3,033 3,304 481 526 537 576 630 PALECO Tenga-tenga (Pob) 816 892 908 974 1,061 168 184 188 201 220 PALECO Tocadan 336 366 372 400 435 63 69 70 75 82 BAPA Manamoc 1,601 1,750 1,781 1,910 2,081 292 319 326 350 382 Un-Electrified Caponayan 1,023 1,118 1,138 1,220 1,329 207 226 231 248 271 Un-Electrified Lubid 715 782 796 854 931 153 167 171 183 201 BCS Bacao 1,086 1,290 1,334 1,528 1,804 209 248 258 295 350 POPS Bohol 1,096 1,302 1,347 1,542 1,822 207 246 255 292 347 SHS/BCS Calasag 144 171 177 203 239 30 36 37 42 50 SHS Catep 498 591 611 700 826 92 109 113 130 154 BCS Culacian (a) 509 604 625 716 846 100 119 123 141 167 BCS Danleg 1,521 1,806 1,868 2,139 2,526 268 318 330 378 448 BAPA Dumaran (Pob)* 1,235 1,467 1,518 1,738 2,053 243 289 300 343 407 DUMARAN SHS Itangil 1,693 2,011 2,080 2,382 2,812 305 362 376 431 510 SHS Magsaysay (b) 1,021 1,213 1,255 1,437 1,697 187 222 231 264 313 BAPA Santa Teresita* 1,758 2,089 2,161 2,474 2,920 319 379 394 451 534 Un-Electrified Capayas 1,055 1,254 1,297 1,485 1,753 211 251 260 298 353 Un-Electrified Ilian 1,336 1,588 1,643 1,883 2,224 248 295 306 351 416 Un-Electrified San Juan (b) 723 858 888 1,018 1,202 146 173 180 206 245 Un-Electrified Santa Maria 709 844 873 999 1,180 129 154 159 182 216

5-8 Table 5.2.1 Number of Potential Households in 2015 (Continued)

Presenｔ Municipality Barangay Pupolation Projection Potential Households Projection e-Status Name Name 2000(Base 2005 2006 2010 2015 2000(Base 2005 2006 2010 2015 Un-Electrified Santo Tomas 972 1,155 1,195 1,369 1,616 195 232 241 276 327 DUMARAN Un-Electrified Tanatanaon 1,254 1,491 1,542 1,766 2,086 244 290 301 345 409 PALECO Buena Soerte (Pob) 1,761 2,170 2,261 2,663 3,255 344 424 443 522 640 PALECO Corong-corong (Pob) 733 903 941 1,108 1,353 143 176 184 217 266 PALECO Maligaya (Pob) 914 1,126 1,173 1,381 1,688 183 225 236 278 340 PALECO Masagana (Pob) 921 1,134 1,181 1,391 1,700 210 259 270 318 391 SHS Aberawan 930 1,146 1,194 1,406 1,719 191 235 246 290 356 SHS Bagong Bayan (a) 869 1,071 1,116 1,316 1,608 176 217 227 268 328 Un-Electrified Barotuan 1,708 2,104 2,192 2,582 3,156 341 420 439 517 635 Un-Electrified Bebeladan 1,785 2,199 2,291 2,699 3,300 307 378 395 466 572 Un-Electrified EL NIDO Bucana 3,945 4,860 5,063 5,964 7,290 740 912 953 1,123 1,378 Un-Electrified (BACUIT) Mabini (b) 937 1,154 1,202 1,415 1,729 178 219 229 270 331 Un-Electrified Manlag 1,493 1,839 1,916 2,257 2,759 274 337 353 416 510 Un-Electrified New Ibajay 2,355 2,902 3,023 3,561 4,353 413 509 532 627 769 Un-Electrified Pasadena 1,214 1,496 1,559 1,837 2,245 231 285 298 351 430 Un-Electrified San Fernando 1,445 1,781 1,855 2,186 2,672 282 348 363 428 525 Un-Electrified Sibartan 1,214 1,496 1,559 1,837 2,245 236 291 304 358 440 Un-Electrified Teneguiban 2,799 3,448 3,592 4,231 5,173 545 671 702 827 1,015 Un-Electrified Villa Libertad 1,188 1,464 1,525 1,796 2,196 233 287 300 354 434 Un-Electrified Villa Paz 818 1,007 1,049 1,237 1,513 164 202 211 249 306 BISELCO San Miguel (Pob) 2,526 3,188 3,337 4,006 5,013 500 631 663 796 1,000 BCS Barangonan (Ilog) 541 683 715 858 1,073 110 139 146 175 220 BCS Cabunlawan 567 716 750 900 1,125 95 120 126 151 190 BCS Calibangbangan 654 826 865 1,037 1,298 121 153 161 193 242 BCS Decabaitot 412 522 546 656 820 72 91 96 115 144 LINAPACAN BCS Maroyogroyog 1,129 1,425 1,492 1,791 2,241 195 246 259 311 390 BCS New Culaylayan 652 823 862 1,034 1,294 126 159 167 201 252 BCS Pical 870 1,098 1,149 1,380 1,726 172 217 228 274 344 BCS San Nicolas (b) 580 732 766 920 1,150 116 146 154 185 232 Un-Electrified Nangalao 1,247 1,573 1,647 1,977 2,475 214 270 284 341 428 PALECO Balaguen 1,700 1,726 1,731 1,751 1,776 334 339 341 345 351 PALECO Danawan (Pob) 666 676 678 686 696 238 242 243 246 251 PALECO Emilod 535 545 547 555 565 113 115 116 118 120 PALECO Igabas 984 999 1,002 1,014 1,029 198 201 202 205 209 PALECO Lacaren 425 430 431 435 440 80 81 81 82 83 PALECOMAGSAYSAY Los Angeles 930 945 948 960 975 189 192 193 196 200 PALECO Lucbuan (a) 1,460 1,485 1,490 1,510 1,535 302 307 309 313 320 PALECO Rizal (a) 1,880 1,910 1,916 1,940 1,970 391 397 400 405 413 Un-Electrified Alcoba 408 413 414 418 423 69 70 70 71 72 Un-Electrified Canipo 1,045 1,060 1,063 1,075 1,090 189 192 193 195 199 Un-Electrified Cocoro 850 865 868 880 895 166 169 170 172 176 PALECO Antipuluan 3,929 4,636 4,789 5,455 6,400 819 966 1,002 1,141 1,344 PALECO Aramaywan (a) 3,073 3,627 3,747 4,268 5,006 603 712 738 841 990 PALECO Bagong Sikat 1,596 1,883 1,945 2,215 2,599 308 363 377 429 505 PALECO San Isidro (b) (Bato-bato) 1,607 1,897 1,960 2,232 2,618 318 375 389 443 522 PALECO Burirao 2,250 2,656 2,744 3,126 3,667 452 534 553 630 742 PALECO Calategas 3,892 4,594 4,746 5,405 6,340 729 860 892 1,016 1,196 PALECO Dumaguena 3,191 3,767 3,892 4,433 5,199 640 756 784 892 1,051 PALECO Elvita 812 957 989 1,127 1,323 155 183 189 216 254 PALECO Estrella Village 979 1,155 1,193 1,358 1,592 194 229 237 270 318 PALECO Ipilan (b) 1,195 1,410 1,457 1,659 1,946 248 293 303 346 407 PALECO Malatgao (a) 1,945 2,296 2,701 378 446 527 NARRA 2,372 3,167 463 620 PALECO Malinao 2,375 2,803 2,896 3,299 3,870 506 597 619 706 831 PALECO Narra (Pob) 10,818 12,769 13,191 15,023 17,621 2,261 2,669 2,767 3,151 3,710 PALECO Panacan 6,644 7,841 8,100 9,226 10,822 1,360 1,605 1,664 1,896 2,232 PALECO Princess Urduja 4,354 5,140 5,310 6,048 7,094 916 1,081 1,121 1,277 1,503 PALECO Sandoval (b) 1,992 2,351 2,429 2,767 3,247 391 461 479 545 642 PALECO Tacras 1,104 1,302 1,345 1,531 1,796 213 251 260 296 349 PALECO Taritien 1,425 1,682 1,738 1,978 2,320 294 347 360 410 482 PALECO Teresa 946 1,116 1,153 1,313 1,540 177 209 217 247 290 PALECO Batang-batang 975 1,151 1,189 1,354 1,588 197 233 241 275 323 PALECO Caguisan 1,045 1,233 1,274 1,451 1,702 223 263 273 311 366 PALECO Tinagong Dagat 698 824 851 969 1,136 139 164 170 194 228 PALECO Bacungan 3,386 4,260 4,456 5,336 6,657 766 964 1,012 1,212 1,517 PALECO Bagong Pag-Asa (Pob) 2,075 2,611 2,731 3,271 4,082 416 523 549 658 824 PALECO Bagong Sikat (Pob) 6,331 7,967 8,334 9,980 12,450 1,244 1,565 1,644 1,968 2,464 PALECO Bagong Silang (Pob) 3,602 4,531 4,740 5,677 7,081 707 889 934 1,118 1,400 PALECO Bancao-bancao 8,061 10,142 10,610 12,706 15,852 1,749 2,201 2,311 2,767 3,465 PALECO Barangay ng mga Mangingis 2,694 3,390 3,546 4,246 5,297 579 729 765 916 1,147 PALECO Inagawan 1,357 1,708 1,787 2,139 2,668 291 366 385 460 576 PALECO Inagawan Sub-Colony 905 1,140 1,193 1,429 1,784 209 263 277 331 415 PALECO Irawan 3,548 4,464 4,670 5,592 6,976 718 903 949 1,136 1,422 PALECO Iwahig (Pob) 651 820 858 1,027 1,281 147 185 194 233 291 PALECO Kalipay (Pob) 566 713 746 893 1,113 131 165 173 207 259 PALECO Kamuning 1,419 1,786 1,868 2,237 2,792 313 394 414 495 620 PALECOPUERTO Liwanag (Pob) 1,572 1,978 2,069 2,477 3,090 388 488 513 614 768 PALECOPRINCESA Lucbuan (b) 1,216 1,531 1,602 1,919 2,395 248 312 328 393 492 PALECO Luzviminda 2,793 3,514 3,676 4,401 5,490 570 717 753 901 1,129 CITY PALECO Mabuhay (Pob) 1,073 1,350 1,412 1,691 2,109 208 262 275 329 412 PALECO(CAPITAL) Magkakaibigan (Pob) 298 375 392 470 585 80 101 106 127 158 PALECO Maligaya (Pob) 332 418 437 523 653 65 82 86 103 129 PALECO Manalo 1,692 2,129 2,227 2,667 3,328 338 425 447 535 670 PALECO Mandaragat (Pob) 8,422 10,596 11,084 13,274 16,558 1,773 2,231 2,342 2,805 3,511 PALECO Manggahan (Pob) 1,332 1,677 1,754 2,102 2,622 305 384 403 483 605 PALECO Maningning (Pob) 764 961 1,005 1,203 1,500 172 216 227 272 340 PALECO Maoyon 994 1,251 1,309 1,567 1,955 189 238 250 299 374 PALECO Maruyogon 1,381 1,737 1,817 2,177 2,715 265 333 350 419 525 PALECO Masigla (Pob) 417 527 551 660 824 93 118 123 148 185 PALECO Masikap (Pob) 879 1,105 1,156 1,384 1,726 194 244 256 307 384 PALECO Masipag (Pob) 2,092 2,632 2,753 3,297 4,113 375 472 495 593 743 PALECO Matahimik (Pob) 2,971 3,738 3,910 4,682 5,841 594 747 785 940 1,176 PALECO Matiyaga (Pob) 321 404 423 506 631 77 97 102 122 152

5-9 Table 5.2.1 Number of Potential Households in 2015 (Continued)

Presenｔ Municipality Barangay Pupolation Projection Potential Households Projection e-Status Name Name 2000(Base 2005 2006 2010 2015 2000(Base 2005 2006 2010 2015 PALECO Maunlad (Pob) 3,724 4,685 4,901 5,869 7,321 806 1,014 1,065 1,275 1,596 PALECO Milagrosa (Pob) 2,406 3,027 3,167 3,793 4,732 509 640 673 805 1,009 PALECO Model (Pob) 363 458 479 573 715 86 109 114 136 171 PALECO Montible (Pob) 80 101 106 127 159 17 21 23 27 34 PALECO Pagkakaisa (Pob) 1,740 2,190 2,291 2,745 3,425 360 453 476 570 714 PALECO Princesa (Pob) 907 1,142 1,195 1,431 1,786 187 235 247 296 371 PALECO Salvacion (a) 884 1,114 1,165 1,396 1,741 191 241 253 303 379 PALECO San Jose (b) 5,209 6,553 6,855 8,210 10,242 1,058 1,331 1,398 1,674 2,096 PALECO San Manuel 4,689 5,900 6,172 7,392 9,221 993 1,249 1,312 1,571 1,967 PALECO San Miguel (a) 14,464 18,198 19,037 22,798 28,440 3,099 3,899 4,094 4,903 6,139 PALECO San Pedro 12,127 15,258 15,961 19,114 23,844 2,469 3,106 3,261 3,906 4,890 PALECO Santa Cruz (b) 580 730 764 915 1,140 140 176 185 222 277 PALECO Santa Lourdes 3,365 4,234 4,429 5,304 6,617 735 925 971 1,163 1,456 PALECO Santa Lucia (Pob) 81 102 107 128 160 16 20 21 25 32 PALECO Santa Monica 8,076 10,161 10,629 12,729 15,880 1,707 2,148 2,255 2,700 3,381 PALECO Seaside (Pob) 1,544 1,943 2,033 2,435 3,037 310 390 410 491 614 PALECOPUERTO Sicsican 4,341 5,462 5,714 6,843 8,535 846 1,064 1,118 1,339 1,676 PALECOPRINCESA Tagburos 3,555 4,473 4,679 5,604 6,990 713 897 942 1,128 1,412 PALECO Tagunpay (Pob) 1,079 1,358 1,421 1,703 2,124 230 289 304 364 456 CITY PALECO Tanglaw (Pob) 2,026 2,548 2,665 3,192 3,982 527 663 696 833 1,044 PALECO(CAPITAL) Tiniguiban 6,496 8,173 8,550 10,238 12,773 1,336 1,681 1,765 2,114 2,646 POPS Babuyan 1,704 2,144 2,243 2,685 3,350 351 442 464 555 695 BCS Napsan 1,911 2,404 2,515 3,012 3,758 406 511 536 642 804 Un-Electrified Bagong Bayan (b) 534 671 702 840 1,048 125 157 165 197 247 Un-Electrified Bahile 1,932 2,431 2,543 3,045 3,798 382 481 505 604 756 Un-Electrified Binduyan 855 1,075 1,125 1,347 1,682 159 200 210 251 315 Un-Electrified Buena Vista (b) 780 981 1,026 1,228 1,532 144 181 190 228 285 Un-Electrified Cabayugan 2,113 2,658 2,781 3,330 4,155 415 522 548 656 822 Un-Electrified Conception (c) 1,031 1,297 1,357 1,625 2,027 204 257 270 323 404 Un-Electrified Langogan 1,346 1,693 1,771 2,120 2,644 310 390 409 490 613 Un-Electrified Macarascas 1,273 1,603 1,677 2,009 2,506 260 327 344 412 516 Un-Electrified Marufinas 542 682 713 854 1,065 98 123 129 155 194 Un-Electrified New Panggangan 542 682 713 854 1,065 109 137 144 172 216 Un-Electrified San Rafael (b) 1,384 1,741 1,821 2,181 2,722 307 386 405 486 608 Un-Electrified Simpocan 914 1,150 1,203 1,440 1,796 181 228 239 286 358 Un-Electrified Tagabinit 1,169 1,471 1,539 1,843 2,298 228 287 301 361 451 Un-Electrified Tanabag 412 517 541 648 808 88 110 116 139 174 PALECO Alfonso XIII (Pob) 6,735 7,617 7,803 8,594 9,674 1,356 1,534 1,577 1,737 1,962 PALECO Panitian (a) 6,219 7,034 7,206 7,936 8,933 1,244 1,407 1,447 1,593 1,800 PALECO Pinaglabanan 2,659 3,007 3,080 3,392 3,817 596 674 693 763 862 PALECO Tabon 3,257 3,682 3,772 4,154 4,676 690 780 802 883 998 BCS Berong 1,614 1,824 1,869 2,059 2,318 340 384 395 435 492 Un-Electrified Aramaywan (b) 2,988 3,378 3,461 3,813 4,292 566 640 658 725 819 Un-Electrified Kalatagbak 1,351 1,527 1,564 1,722 1,937 291 329 338 372 420 QUEZON Un-Electrified Calumpang 1,710 1,935 1,982 2,183 2,457 355 402 413 455 514 Un-Electrified Isugod 3,140 3,550 3,637 4,005 4,508 628 710 730 804 908 Un-Electrified Maasin (b) 1,734 1,960 2,008 2,211 2,489 314 355 365 402 454 Un-Electrified Malatgao (b) 2,124 2,402 2,461 2,711 3,052 430 486 500 551 622 Un-Electrified Quinlogan 3,819 4,318 4,423 4,871 5,483 775 876 901 992 1,121 Un-Electrified Sowangan 1,782 2,015 2,064 2,273 2,558 366 414 425 469 529 Un-Electrified Tagusao 2,537 2,869 2,939 3,237 3,643 502 568 584 643 726 PALECO Abaroan 3,136 3,342 3,384 3,557 3,781 602 642 652 685 731 PALECO Barangay I (Pob) (ROXAS) 3,059 3,260 3,301 3,469 3,688 597 636 647 680 725 PALECO Barangay II (Pob) (ROXAS) 885 943 955 1,003 1,067 175 186 190 199 213 PALECO Barangay III (Pob) (ROXAS 2,296 2,447 2,478 2,605 2,769 478 509 518 544 581 PALECO Barangay IV (Pob) (ROXAS 4,324 4,607 4,665 4,904 5,213 849 905 919 966 1,031 PALECO Magara 3,702 3,945 3,995 4,199 4,464 735 783 796 837 893 PALECO Malcampo 1,320 1,407 1,425 1,498 1,592 256 273 277 292 311 PALECO Minara 1,178 1,255 1,271 1,336 1,420 243 259 263 277 295 PALECO New Cuyo 1,595 1,699 1,720 1,808 1,922 303 323 328 345 368 PALECO Retac 1,923 2,050 2,076 2,182 2,320 369 393 400 420 448 PALECO San Jose (c) 1,088 1,159 1,174 1,234 1,312 204 217 221 232 248 PALECO Tagunpay (b) 2,232 2,379 2,409 2,532 2,692 466 497 505 531 566 Un-Electrified Antonino 801 854 865 909 966 156 166 169 178 189 Un-Electrified Bagong Bayan (c) 812 866 877 921 979 160 171 173 182 194 Un-Electrified Barangay V (Pob) (Porao Is) 12 13 13 14 14 333 3 4 Un-Electrified ROXAS Barangay VI (Pob) (Johnson 540 575 582 611 651 105 112 114 119 127 Un-Electrified Caramay 2,163 2,305 2,334 2,453 2,608 445 474 482 507 540 Un-Electrified Dumarao 2,242 2,389 2,419 2,543 2,703 432 460 468 492 525 Un-Electrified Santo Tomas (Iraan) 702 747 756 795 845 140 149 151 159 170 Un-Electrified Jolo 699 744 753 792 842 148 158 160 168 180 Un-Electrified Mendoza 1,197 1,276 1,292 1,358 1,444 253 270 274 288 307 Un-Electrified Nicanor Zabara 1,452 1,548 1,567 1,647 1,751 306 326 331 348 372 Un-Electrified Rizal (b) 777 827 837 881 936 146 155 158 166 177 Un-Electrified Salvacion (b) 532 567 574 602 641 122 130 132 139 148 Un-Electrified San Isidro (c) 514 549 556 584 620 100 107 109 114 121 Un-Electrified San Miguel (b) 785 836 846 890 946 172 183 186 196 209 Un-Electrified San Nicolas (c) 678 723 732 769 818 130 139 141 148 158 Un-Electrified Sandoval (c) 1,546 1,648 1,669 1,754 1,865 303 323 328 345 368 Un-Electrified Taradungan 926 986 998 1,050 1,116 182 194 197 207 221 Un-Electrified Tinitian 1,311 1,397 1,415 1,487 1,581 265 282 287 302 322 Un-Electrified Tumarabong 2,794 2,978 3,015 3,169 3,369 590 629 639 672 717 PALECO Alimanguen 2,809 3,143 3,213 3,509 3,910 542 606 622 680 760 PALECO New Agutaya 2,111 2,361 2,414 2,636 2,937 420 470 482 526 589 PALECO San Vicente (Pob) 3,921 4,386 4,484 4,897 5,456 758 848 870 950 1,063 PALECO San Isidro (d) 1,025 1,146 1,172 1,280 1,426 213 238 244 267 299 BAPASAN Port Barton* 4,140 4,632 4,735 5,171 5,760 814 911 934 1,021 1,141 POPSVICENTE Santo Nino (c) 951 1,065 1,089 1,189 1,325 169 189 194 212 237 Un-Electrified Binga 1,372 1,535 1,569 1,714 1,909 254 284 292 318 356 Un-Electrified Caruray 3,526 3,946 4,034 4,406 4,908 672 752 772 843 942 Un-Electrified Kemdeng 701 784 801 875 975 132 148 151 165 185 Un-Electrified New Canipo 1,059 1,185 1,211 1,323 1,475 200 224 230 251 281

5-10 Table 5.2.1 Number of Potential Households in 2015 (Continued)

Presenｔ Municipality Barangay Pupolation Projection Potential Households Projection e-Status Name Name 2000(Base 2005 2006 2010 2015 2000(Base 2005 2006 2010 2015 PALECO Abongan 3,757 4,284 4,396 4,874 5,531 702 800 824 914 1,041 PALECO Bato 2,241 2,556 2,623 2,907 3,297 422 481 496 549 625 PALECO Poblacion (TAYTAY) 6,608 7,534 7,731 8,570 9,725 1,339 1,527 1,572 1,743 1,985 BCS Banbanan 1,608 1,834 1,882 2,086 2,367 284 324 334 370 421 BCS Beton 1,284 1,464 1,502 1,664 1,889 217 247 255 282 322 SHS Busy Bees 892 1,017 1,044 1,157 1,313 159 181 187 207 236 BCS Calawag 3,752 4,278 4,390 4,868 5,524 715 815 840 931 1,060 BCS Casian 2,294 2,616 2,684 2,976 3,376 416 474 489 542 617 SHS Cataban 760 866 889 985 1,118 154 175 181 200 228 BCS Debangan 1,106 1,261 1,294 1,436 1,631 199 227 234 259 296 BAPA Liminangcong 4,058 4,628 4,749 5,264 5,973 747 852 877 973 1,108 SHS Pularaquen (Canique) 1,359 1,549 1,589 1,762 1,999 265 302 311 345 393 Un-Electrified Alacalian 1,557 1,776 1,822 2,020 2,292 305 348 358 397 452 Un-Electrified Bantulan 1,543 1,759 1,805 2,001 2,271 309 352 363 402 458 Un-Electrified Baras 388 442 454 503 571 74 84 87 96 110 Un-Electrified TAYTAY Batas 901 1,028 1,055 1,170 1,328 175 200 206 228 260 Un-Electrified Depla 804 917 941 1,044 1,185 172 196 202 224 255 Un-Electrified Libertad 1,635 1,864 1,913 2,121 2,407 295 336 346 384 437 Un-Electrified Meytegued 867 989 1,015 1,125 1,277 167 190 196 218 248 Un-Electrified Minapla 543 619 635 704 798 128 146 150 167 190 Un-Electrified New Guinlo 3,150 3,592 3,686 4,086 4,637 570 650 669 742 845 Un-Electrified Old Guinlo 659 751 771 855 970 123 140 144 160 182 Un-Electrified Paglaum 1,713 1,954 2,005 2,223 2,522 309 352 363 402 458 Un-Electrified Paly (Paly Is) 1,355 1,545 1,585 1,757 1,993 249 284 292 324 369 Un-Electrified Pamantolon 1,165 1,329 1,364 1,512 1,717 202 230 237 263 300 Un-Electrified Pancol 1,937 2,209 2,267 2,513 2,851 365 416 429 475 541 Un-Electrified San Jose (d) 1,512 1,723 1,768 1,960 2,223 281 320 330 366 416 Un-Electrified Sandoval (d) 1,008 1,150 1,180 1,308 1,483 182 208 214 237 270 Un-Electrified Silanga 769 877 900 997 1,132 146 167 171 190 216 Un-Electrified Talog 917 1,045 1,072 1,188 1,348 162 185 190 211 240 Un-Electrified Tumbod 1,288 1,468 1,506 1,668 1,893 250 285 293 325 370 POPS KALAYAAN Pag-asa (Pob) 120 125 126 130 135 12 13 13 13 14 BISELCO Balala 658 730 745 808 893 154 171 175 190 211 BISELCO Baldat 434 481 491 532 588 88 98 100 108 120 BISELCO Culango 265 295 301 326 361 45 50 51 56 62 BISELCO Jardin 998 1,107 1,130 1,226 1,355 188 209 214 232 257 BISELCO Libis 1,132 1,256 1,282 1,390 1,536 240 266 273 296 328 BISELCOCULION Malaking Ptag 1,335 1,480 1,510 1,638 1,810 250 277 284 308 341 BISELCO Osmena 4,169 4,624 4,719 5,119 5,654 849 942 965 1,046 1,160 BISELCO Tiza 939 1,041 1,062 1,152 1,273 211 234 240 260 288 BCS Galoc 1,174 1,303 1,330 1,442 1,593 220 244 250 271 301 BCS Luac 1,091 1,210 1,235 1,339 1,479 505 560 574 622 690 Un-Electrified Binudac 2,034 2,255 2,301 2,495 2,755 332 368 377 409 453 BCS Bunog 1,909 2,782 2,996 4,028 5,791 383 558 603 811 1,170 BCS Campung-ulay 1,540 2,245 2,417 3,250 4,672 435 634 685 921 1,330 BCS Candawaga 4,425 6,450 6,945 9,336 13,423 931 1,357 1,467 1,972 2,845 BAPA Punta Baja 7,253 10,573 11,385 15,307 22,009 1,529 2,229 2,409 3,239 4,674 BCSRIZAL Taburi 2,143 3,124 3,364 4,523 6,504 492 717 775 1,042 1,504 Un-Electrified Canipaan 1,749 2,550 2,746 3,692 5,309 392 572 618 831 1,199 (MARCOS) Un-Electrified Culacian (b) 1,488 2,171 2,338 3,143 4,520 307 448 484 651 939 Un-Electrified Iraan (b) 4,509 6,574 7,079 9,517 13,685 941 1,372 1,483 1,994 2,877 Un-Electrified Latud 1,129 1,645 1,771 2,381 3,423 267 389 420 565 815 Un-Electrified Panalingaan 2,512 3,663 3,944 5,302 7,623 571 833 900 1,210 1,746 Un-Electrified Ransang 3,040 4,432 4,772 6,417 9,226 668 974 1,052 1,415 2,042 PALECO Abo-abo 2,422 2,824 2,910 3,284 3,809 573 668 691 780 908 PALECO Isumbo 1,794 2,092 2,156 2,432 2,819 385 449 464 524 610 PALECO Panitian (b) 4,209 4,907 5,057 5,705 6,614 935 1,090 1,128 1,272 1,480 PALECOSOFRONIO Pulot Center 5,318 6,201 6,391 7,211 8,361 1,006 1,173 1,213 1,369 1,593 PALECO Pulot Shore (Pulot I) 3,716 4,333 4,466 5,039 5,841 700 816 844 953 1,108 ESPANOLA Un-Electrified Iraray 2,391 2,788 2,873 3,241 3,756 444 518 536 604 703 Un-Electrified Labog 2,970 3,465 3,571 4,029 4,671 604 705 729 822 957 Un-Electrified Pulot Interior (Pulot II) 1,736 2,024 2,086 2,354 2,730 370 431 446 504 586 Un-Electrified Punang 2,170 2,531 2,608 2,942 3,411 462 539 557 629 732 Total 753,118 899,020 931,440 1,075,595 1,289,683 151,190 180,814 188,095 217,542 262,303

5-11 (2) Estimation of target households for electrification The number of target households for electrification depends on a target household electrification ratio. For example, if the target ratio is 90%, which is the DOE’s target in 2017, the target households for electrification in 2017 is 90% of potential households in 2017.

In estimating target households for electrification, the Study distinguishes between two types of target households. One is the target households for the whole barangay electrification, and the other is the target households for household electrification improvement (see Figure 5.2.1).

The target households for the whole barangay electrification are estimated by the formula shown in Figure 5.2.1. The Study employs the “capacity to pay” factor and the “concentration ratio”, because not all potential households can afford to pay the electricity charge2 and not all potential households are located at one spot in a barangay.

The “capacity to pay” factor refers to the share of potential households in the barangay that can afford to pay the electricity charge. The concentration ratio refers to the share of households that are expected to be located in the proximity of the barangay center 3 . According to the socio-economic survey, the “capacity to pay” factor and the concentration ratio are considered to be about 0.7 and 0.5 ~ 0.7 in Palawan, respectively (see Section 4.2). The Study employs the concentration ratio of 0.5.

Un-electrified Bgy. A Target HH for 100% Bgy. Electrification = Potential HH x Capacity to Pay Factor x Concentration Ratio

Target HH for HH Electrification Improvement = Potential HH x Target HH Electrification Ratio - Target HH for 100% Bgy. Electrification

Target HH in Bgy. A Bgy. Center Sitio = Target HH for 100% Bgy. Electrification + Target HH for HH Electrification Improvement

Figure 5.2.1 Type of Target Households for Electrification

Table 5.2.6 shows the number of target households for the whole barangay electrification in 20064 and the number of target households for household electrification improvement in 2015 in the case of an 80% electrification target.

2 The minimum charge is assumed to be P150 / month, which is a general minimum monthly charge in BAPA. 3 The Barangay proper has the Barangay hall, the Barangay plaza, a Barangay day care center and other facilities. 4 The number of target households for 100% barangay electrification in 2006 is 35% of the potential households in each barangay.

5-12 (3) Estimation of unit energy consumption and peak demand The Study assumes the two consumer types below in estimating unit energy consumption and peak demand.

Low Use Consumer : Fluorescent Light (20 W) x 2 High Use Consumer : Fluorescent Light (20 W) x 4, Color TV (50 W) x 1, Audio5 (20 W) x 1, Refrigerator (100 W) x 1, Electric Fan (30 W) x 1

In the case of electrification with SHS and/or BCS, however, the parameter of appliances to install and supply hours are fixed at two fluorescent lights and 4-hour supply respectively in consideration of MEDP and existing SHS and BCS projects in Palawan.

Figure 5.2.2 shows the daily use patterns of each appliance.

Low Use Consumer Item Qt. W WH MAX. W Hours in Use -1234567891011121314151617181920212223-24 Fluorescent Light 2 20 160 40 8 122111 160 40 8 122111 160 40 8 122111 120 40 6 1221

High Use Consumer Item Qt. W WH MAX. W Hours in Use -1234567891011121314151617181920212223-24 Fluorescent Light 4 20 300 80 15 244221 300 80 15 244221 300 80 15 244221 240 80 12 2442 Color TV 1 50 250 50 5 1 1111 250 50 5 1 1111 200 50 4 1111 200 50 4 1111 Refrigerator 1 100 2400 100 24111111111111111111111111 1200 100 12 111111111111 600 100 6 111111 400 100 4 1111 Audio 1 20 40 20 2 11 (VCD, KARAOKE, 40 20 2 11 CASSETTE) 40 20 2 11 20 20 1 1 Electric Fan 1 30 360 30 12 111111111111 270 30 9 111111111 120 30 4 1111 120 30 4 1111 Figure 5.2.2 Daily Use Pattern of Electric Appliances

There are many options for the electricity supply hours. The Study uses a 6-hour supply as a base for power demand forecasting, which many existing mini-grid systems also employ. Figure 5.2.3 shows the daily load curve of each consumer type.

5 Karaoke, VCD, Cassette recorder, others

5-13 Load Curve of Low Use Customer Load Curve of High Use Customer

Fluorescent Light Refrigerator Color TV Electric Fan Audio Fluorescent Light

300 300

250 250

200 200

W 150 W 150

100 100

50 50

0 0 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 Hour Hour

Figure 5.2.3 Daily Load Curve of each Consumer Type (6-Hour Supply)

Table 5.2.2 shows the unit energy consumption and peak demand for each consumer type.

Table 5.2.2 Unit Energy Consumption and Peak Demand Consumer Type Energy Consumption (Wh) Peak Demand (W) Low Use Consumer 160 Wh / day /HH = 4.8 kWh / Month /HH 40 W / HH High Use Consumer 1,260 Wh / day / HH = 37.8 kWh / Month /HH 260 W / HH Note: 6-hour supply

The share of low and high use consumer depends on the economical conditions of each barangay. The Study assumes the two types of shares shown below.

Category I : The ratio of low use consumer and high use consumer is 90% to 10% Category II : The ratio of low use consumer and high use consumer is 70% to 30%

In Palawan, coastal barangays generally have better economical conditions than highland barangays. Table 5.2.3 shows the histogram of monthly energy consumption of consumers in Barangay. Port Barton BAPA, which provides a 6-hour supply to its consumers. Since about 30% of the consumers are ranked above 30 kWh, the economical condition of Barangay. Port Barton is considered to be close to Category II.

5-14 Table 5.2.3 Monthly Energy Consumption in Port Barton BAPA Monthly Energy Consumption No. of Consumers Ratio (kWh) 0 - 30 89 73.55 % 30 - 60 15 12.40% 60 - 90 4 3.31% 90 - 120 5 4.13% 120 - 150 2 1.65% 150 - 180 1 0.83% 180 - 210 2 1.65% 210 - 240 0 0.00% 240 - 270 1 0.83% 270 - 300 0 0.00% 300 - 2 1.65% Total 121 100.00% Source: Port Barton BAPA Monthly Financial and Statistical Report, April, 2002

Ideally, the category for each barangay needs to be set individually considering their respective economic conditions. The Study, however, set the category for all barangays at Category II. This is due to the fact that almost all of the barangays in Palawan are located along coastlines. Table 5.2.4 shows the annual unit energy consumption and peak demand for the given conditions.

Table 5.2.4 Annual Unit Energy Consumption and Peak Demand Barangay Category Unit Energy Consumption (kWh) Unit Peak Demand (W) Category II 179 kWh / year / HH 106 W / HH Note: 6-hour supply

Table 5.2.5 shows the daily unit energy consumption and peak demand for reference.

Table 5.2.5 Daily Unit Energy Consumption and Peak Demand Category I Category II (SHS / BCS) Supply Unit Energy Unit Peak Unit Energy Unit Peak Unit Energy Unit Peak Hours Consumption Demand Consumption Demand Consumption Demand (kWh / day / HH) (W / HH) (kWh / day / HH) (W / HH) (kWh / day / HH) (W / HH) 24 479 62 1,117 106 - - 12 350 62 730 106 - - 6 270 62 490 106 - - 4 206 62 106 106 120 40

5-15 (4) Estimation of potential power demand in 2015 Figure 5.2.4 shows the flow for estimating potential power demand on a sample barangay (Barangay A) with 1,000 households.

350 x 179 Target HH for (Bgy. A) = 62.7 (MWh) 100%Bgy. Category II 350 x 106 Electrification 6 hours =37.1 (kW) 350 HH (Target Ratio of HH Electrification = 80%) Potential HH 225 x 179 in 2015 Target HH for Target HH = 40.3 (MWh) HH Electrification in Sitio A 225 x 106 1,000 HH = 23.9 (kW) Potential HH for 450 HH 225 HH HH Electrification (= 1,000 x 0.8 –350) 225 x 179 650 HH Un-Electrified HH Target HH = 40.3 (MWh) in 2015 in Sitio B 225 x 106 = 23.9 (kW) 200 HH 225 HH

Unit Energy Consumption = 179 kWh / year /HH Total potential demand in Bgy.A = 143.3 (MWh) Unit Pea k De mand = 106 W / HH = 84.9 (kW)

Figure 5.2.4 Flow for Estimating Potential Power Demand

Finally, potential power demand in the electrified and un-electrified barangays, except for the barangays supplied with electricity from NPC-SPUG and ECs, are shown in Table 5.2.6.

Table 5.2.6 Potential Power Demand Forecast in 2015 (Non NPC-SPUG and ECs Areas)

Presenｔ Municipality Barangay Potential HH Target HH Energy Demand Target HH Energy Demand Target HH Energy Demand e-Status Name Name 2015 (2006, 35%) (MWh) (kW) For 80%, 2015 (MWh) (kW) (Total, 2015) (MWh) (kW) BCS Aporawan 833 286 51.19 30.32 365 65.51 38.8 651 116.7 69.12 Un-Electrified ABORLAN Culandanum (a) 256 90 16.11 9.54 115 20.76 12.3 205 36.87 21.84 Un-Electrified Sagpangan 470 165 29.54 17.49 211 37.95 22.47 376 67.49 39.96 Un-Electrified Algeciras 2031 711 127.27 75.37 914 163.43 96.78 1625 290.7 172.15 Un-Electrified Conception (a) 1477 517 92.54 54.8 665 92.54 54.8 1182 185.08 109.6 Un-Electrified Diit 752 263 47.08 27.88 339 60.86 36.04 602 107.94 63.92 Un-Electrified AGUTAYA Maracanao 99 35 6.27 3.71 44 7.88 4.66 79 14.15 8.37 Un-Electrified Matarawis 88 31 5.55 3.29 39 7.16 4.24 70 12.71 7.53 Un-Electrified Villafria 348 122 21.84 12.93 156 27.92 16.54 278 49.76 29.47 Un-Electrified Villasol 524 183 32.76 19.4 236 41.89 24.8 419 74.65 44.2 Un-Electrified Balogo105376.62 3.92 47 8.59 5.09 84 15.21 9.01 Un-Electrified Dagman 174 61 10.92 6.47 78 13.96 8.27 139 24.88 14.74 Un-Electrified Dalayawon 87 30 5.37 3.18 40 7.16 4.24 70 12.53 7.42 Un-Electrified Lumacad 112 39 6.98 4.13 51 9.31 5.51 90 16.29 9.64 Un-Electrified Madoldolon 95 33 5.91 3.5 43 7.88 4.66 76 13.79 8.16 ARACELI Un-Electrified Mauringuen 158 55 9.85 5.83 71 12.89 7.63 126 22.74 13.46 Un-Electrified Osmena (a) 158 55 9.85 5.83 71 12.89 7.63 126 22.74 13.46 Un-Electrified San Jose De Oro 59 21 3.76 2.23 26 4.65 2.76 47 8.41 4.99 Un-Electrified Santo Nino (a) 86 30 5.37 3.18 39 7.16 4.24 69 12.53 7.42 Un-Electrified Taloto 113 40 7.16 4.24 50 8.95 5.3 90 16.11 9.54 Un-Electrified Agutayan 177 62 11.1 6.57 80 14.32 8.48 142 25.42 15.05 Un-Electrified Bancalaan 1926 674 120.65 71.44 867 155.37 92.01 1541 276.02 163.45 Un-Electrified Bugsuk (New Cagayancillo) 280 98 17.54 10.39 126 22.55 13.36 224 40.09 23.75 Un-Electrified Catagupan 445 156 27.92 16.54 200 35.44 20.99 356 63.36 37.53 Un-Electrified Indalawan 271 95 17.01 10.07 122 21.48 12.72 217 38.49 22.79 Un-Electrified Malaking Ilog 217 76 13.6 8.06 98 17.18 10.18 174 30.78 18.24 Un-Electrified Mangsee 1517 531 683 95.05 56.29 1214 190.1 112.58 BALABAC 95.05 56.29 Un-Electrified Melville 280 98 17.54 10.39 126 21.66 12.83 224 39.2 23.22 Un-Electrified Pandanan 178 62 11.1 6.57 80 14.5 8.59 142 25.6 15.16 Un-Electrified Pasig 122 43 7.7 4.56 55 10.02 5.94 98 17.72 10.5 Un-Electrified Rabor 136 48 8.59 5.09 61 11.1 6.57 109 19.69 11.66 Un-Electrified Ramos 429 150 26.85 15.9 193 34.37 20.35 343 61.22 36.25 Un-Electrified Salang 651 228 40.81 24.17 293 52.63 31.16 521 93.44 55.33 Un-Electrified Sebaring 249 87 15.57 9.22 112 19.87 11.77 199 35.44 20.99

5-16 Table 5.2.6 Potential Power Demand Forecast in 2015 (Non NPC-SPUG and ECs Areas) (Continued)

Presenｔ Municipality Barangay Potential HH Target HH Energy Demand Target HH Energy Demand Target HH Energy Demand e-Status Name Name 2015 (2006, 35%) (MWh) (kW) For 80%, 2015 (MWh) (kW) (Total, 2015) (MWh) (kW) Un-Electrified Bulalacao (a) 543 190 34.01 20.14 244 43.5 25.76 434 77.51 45.9 Un-Electrified Buliluyan 408 143 25.6 15.16 183 32.76 19.4 326 58.36 34.56 Un-Electrified Culandanum (b) 1170 410 73.39 43.46 526 94.51 55.97 936 167.9 99.43 Un-Electrified Igang igang 412 144 25.78 15.26 186 33.29 19.72 330 59.07 34.98 Un-Electrified Iwahig 691 242 43.32 25.65 311 55.85 33.07 553 99.17 58.72 Un-Electrified Malihud 522 183 32.76 19.4 235 42.24 25.02 418 75 44.42 Un-Electrified Malitub 192 67 11.99 7.1 87 15.75 9.33 154 27.74 16.43 Un-Electrified Ocayan 559 196 35.08 20.78 251 45.11 26.71 447 80.19 47.49 Un-Electrified Puring 275 96 17.18 10.18 124 22.02 13.04 220 39.2 23.22 Un-Electrified BATARAZA Rio Tuba 2845 996 178.28 105.58 1280 228.76 135.47 2276 407.04 241.05 Un-Electrified Sandoval (a) 829 290 51.91 30.74 373 66.41 39.33 663 118.32 70.07 Un-Electrified Sapa 464 162 29 17.17 209 37.59 22.26 371 66.59 39.43 Un-Electrified Sarong 607 212 37.95 22.47 274 48.87 28.94 486 86.82 51.41 Un-Electrified Sumbiling 824 288 51.55 30.53 371 66.23 39.22 659 117.78 69.75 Un-Electrified Tabud 307 107 19.15 11.34 139 24.7 14.63 246 43.85 25.97 Un-Electrified Tagnato 217 76 13.6 8.06 98 17.54 10.39 174 31.14 18.45 Un-Electrified Tagolango 226 79 14.14 8.37 102 18.26 10.81 181 32.4 19.18 Un-Electrified Taratak 574 201 35.98 21.31 258 46.54 27.56 459 82.52 48.87 Un-Electrified Tarusan 1093 383 68.56 40.6 491 88.07 52.15 874 156.63 92.75 Un-Electrified BROOKE'S Imulnod 480 168 30.07 17.81 216 38.66 22.9 384 68.73 40.71 BCS Panlaitan 657 223 39.92 23.64 283 50.84 30.1 506 90.76 53.74 BCS Quezon 331 109 19.51 11.55 136 24.34 14.42 245 43.85 25.97 BCS San Isidro (a) 208 66 11.81 7 80 14.32 8.48 146 26.13 15.48 Un-Electrified BUSUANGA Burabod 101 35 6.27 3.71 46 8.23 4.88 81 14.5 8.59 Un-Electrified Cheey 551 193 34.55 20.46 248 44.39 26.29 441 78.94 46.75 Un-Electrified Halsey 136 48 8.59 5.09 61 11.1 6.57 109 19.69 11.66 Un-Electrified Maglalambay 246 86 15.39 9.12 111 20.05 11.87 197 35.44 20.99 BCS Santa Cruz (a) 160 46 8.23 4.88 52 9.31 5.51 98 17.54 10.39 BCSCAGAYAN Talaga 161 46 8.23 4.88 53 9.67 5.72 99 17.9 10.6 Un-Electrified Magsaysay (a) 246 86 15.39 9.12 111 20.05 11.87 197 35.44 20.99 -CILLO Un-Electrified Mampio 97 34 6.09 3.6 44 7.88 4.66 78 13.97 8.26 Un-Electrified Nusa 87 30 5.37 3.18 40 7.16 4.24 70 12.53 7.42 BCS Bulalacao (b) 705 229 40.99 24.27 285 51.37 30.42 514 92.36 54.69 BCS Banuang Daan 174 54 9.67 5.72 65 11.64 6.89 119 21.31 12.61 BCS Buena Vista (a) 239 77 13.78 8.16 94 17.54 10.39 171 31.32 18.55 BCS Cabugao 549 185 33.12 19.61 234 41.89 24.8 419 75.01 44.41 BCS Decabobo 249 80 14.32 8.48 99 17.9 10.6 179 32.22 19.08 CORON BCS Lajala 454 145 25.96 15.37 178 32.22 19.08 323 58.18 34.45 BCS Malawig 180 56 10.02 5.94 68 11.81 7 124 21.83 12.94 BCS Marcilla 318 104 18.62 11.02 130 23.63 13.99 234 42.25 25.01 BCS San Jose (a) 301 98 17.54 10.39 123 21.48 12.72 221 39.02 23.11 BCS Tara 358 118 21.12 12.51 148 26.49 15.69 266 47.61 28.2 BAPA Manamoc 382 107 19.15 11.34 122 22.2 13.14 229 41.35 24.48 Un-Electrified CUYO Caponayan 271 95 17.01 10.07 122 21.84 12.93 217 38.85 23 Un-Electrified Lubid 201 70 12.53 7.42 91 16.11 9.54 161 28.64 16.96 BCS Bacao 350 107 19.15 11.34 128 22.91 13.57 235 42.06 24.91 POPS Bohol 347 86 15.39 9.12 92 23.27 13.78 178 38.66 22.9 SHS/BCS Calasag 50 11 1.97 1.17 9 15.75 9.33 20 17.72 10.5 SHS Catep 154 47 8.41 4.98 56 34.37 20.35 103 42.78 25.33 BCS Culacian (a) 167 43 7.7 4.56 46 1.79 1.06 89 9.49 5.62 BCS Danleg 448 141 25.24 14.95 172 10.02 5.94 313 35.26 20.89 BAPADUMARAN Dumaran (Pob)* 407 122 21.84 12.93 146 8.23 4.88 268 30.07 17.81 SHS Itangil 510 172 30.79 18.23 216 30.43 18.02 388 61.22 36.25 SHS Magsaysay (b) 313 103 18.44 10.92 127 26.31 15.58 230 44.75 26.5 BAPA Santa Teresita* 534 161 28.82 17.07 191 38.66 22.9 352 67.48 39.97 Un-Electrified Capayas 353 124 22.2 13.14 158 28.64 16.96 282 50.84 30.1 Un-Electrified Ilian 416 146 26.13 15.48 187 33.29 19.72 333 59.42 35.2 Un-Electrified San Juan (b) 245 86 15.39 9.12 110 19.33 11.45 196 34.72 20.57 Un-Electrified Santa Maria 216 76 13.6 8.06 97 17.18 10.18 173 30.78 18.24 Un-Electrified DUMARAN Santo Tomas 327 114 20.41 12.08 148 26.31 15.58 262 46.72 27.66 Un-Electrified Tanatanaon 409 143 25.6 15.16 184 32.94 19.5 327 58.54 34.66 SHS Aberawan 356 90 16.11 9.54 95 17.54 10.39 185 33.65 19.93 SHS Bagong Bayan (a) 328 80 14.32 8.48 82 15.04 8.9 162 29.36 17.38 Un-Electrified Barotuan 635 222 39.74 23.53 286 51.55 30.53 508 91.29 54.06 Un-Electrified Bebeladan 572 200 35.8 21.2 258 46.54 27.56 458 82.34 48.76 Un-Electrified Bucana 1378 482 86.28 51.09 620 111.52 66.04 1102 197.8 117.13 Un-Electrified Mabini (b) 331 116 20.76 12.3 149 26.49 15.69 265 47.25 27.99 Un-Electrified EL NIDO Manlag 510 179 32.04 18.97 229 40.81 24.17 408 72.85 43.14 Un-Electrified (BACUIT) New Ibajay 769 269 48.15 28.51 346 61.22 36.25 615 109.37 64.76 Un-Electrified Pasadena 430 151 27.03 16.01 193 34.37 20.35 344 61.4 36.36 Un-Electrified San Fernando 525 184 32.94 19.5 236 42.24 25.02 420 75.18 44.52 Un-Electrified Sibartan 440 154 27.57 16.32 198 35.44 20.99 352 63.01 37.31 Un-Electrified Teneguiban 1015 355 63.55 37.63 457 81.62 48.34 812 145.17 85.97 Un-Electrified Villa Libertad 434 152 27.21 16.11 195 35.08 20.78 347 62.29 36.89 Un-Electrified Villa Paz 306 107 19.15 11.34 138 24.7 14.63 245 43.85 25.97 BCS Barangonan (Ilog) 220 70 12.53 7.42 86 15.39 9.12 156 27.92 16.54 BCS Cabunlawan 190 60 10.74 6.36 72 12.89 7.63 132 23.63 13.99 BCS Calibangbangan 242 78 13.96 8.27 96 17.72 10.49 174 31.68 18.76 BCS Decabaitot 144 43 7.7 4.56 52 9.85 5.83 95 17.55 10.39 BCSLINAPACAN Maroyogroyog 390 130 23.27 13.78 162 29.54 17.49 292 52.81 31.27 BCS New Culaylayan 252 81 14.5 8.59 101 17.54 10.39 182 32.04 18.98 BCS Pical 344 113 20.23 11.98 142 25.78 15.26 255 46.01 27.24 BCS San Nicolas (b) 232 74 13.25 7.84 92 15.75 9.33 166 29 17.17 Un-Electrified Nangalao 428 150 26.85 15.9 192 34.91 20.67 342 61.76 36.57 Un-Electrified Alcoba 72 25 4.48 2.65 33 5.91 3.5 58 10.39 6.15 Un-ElectrifiedMAGSAYSAYCanipo 199 70 12.53 7.42 89 16.11 9.54 159 28.64 16.96 Un-Electrified Cocoro 176 62 11.1 6.57 79 14.32 8.48 141 25.42 15.05 POPS Babuyan 695 208 37.23 22.05 248 44.39 26.29 456 81.62 48.34 BCS PUERTO Napsan 804 276 49.4 29.26 352 63.01 37.31 628 112.41 66.57 Un-Electrified PRINCESA Bagong Bayan (b) 247 86 15.39 9.12 112 20.05 11.87 198 35.44 20.99 Un-Electrified CITY Bahile 756 265 47.44 28.09 340 60.86 36.04 605 108.3 64.13 Un-Electrified (CAPITAL) Binduyan 315 110 19.69 11.66 142 25.42 15.05 252 45.11 26.71 Un-Electrified Buena Vista (b) 285 100 17.9 10.6 128 23.27 13.78 228 41.17 24.38

5-17 Table 5.2.6 Potential Power Demand Forecast in 2015 (Non NPC-SPUG and ECs Areas) (Continued)

Presenｔ Municipality Barangay Potential HH Target HH Energy Demand Target HH Energy Demand Target HH Energy Demand e-Status Name Name 2015 (2006, 35%) (MWh) (kW) For 80%, 2015 (MWh) (kW) (Total, 2015) (MWh) (kW) Un-Electrified Cabayugan 822 288 51.55 30.53 370 66.23 39.22 658 117.78 69.75 Un-Electrified Conception (c) 404 141 25.24 14.95 182 32.58 19.29 323 57.82 34.24 Un-Electrified Langogan 613 215 38.49 22.79 275 49.4 29.26 490 87.89 52.05 Un-Electrified PUERTO Macarascas 516 181 32.4 19.19 232 41.35 24.49 413 73.75 43.68 Un-Electrified PRINCESA Marufinas 194 68 12.17 7.21 87 15.22 9.01 155 27.39 16.22 Un-Electrified CITY New Panggangan 216 76 13.6 8.06 97 17.54 10.39 173 31.14 18.45 Un-Electrified (CAPITAL) San Rafael (b) 608 213 38.13 22.58 273 49.05 29.04 486 87.18 51.62 Un-Electrified Simpocan 358 125 22.38 13.25 161 22.38 13.25 286 44.76 26.5 Un-Electrified Tagabinit 451 158 28.28 16.75 203 36.52 21.62 361 64.8 38.37 Un-Electrified Tanabag 174 61 10.92 6.47 78 13.96 8.27 139 24.88 14.74 BCS Berong 492 167 29.89 17.7 212 37.95 22.47 379 67.84 40.17 Un-Electrified Aramaywan (b) 819 287 51.37 30.42 368 65.87 39.01 655 117.24 69.43 Un-Electrified Kalatagbak 420 147 26.31 15.58 189 33.83 20.03 336 60.14 35.61 Un-Electrified Calumpang 514 180 32.22 19.08 231 41.35 24.49 411 73.57 43.57 Un-Electrified Isugod 908 318 56.92 33.71 408 72.5 42.93 726 129.42 76.64 QUEZON Un-Electrified Maasin (b) 454 159 28.46 16.85 204 36.52 21.62 363 64.98 38.47 Un-Electrified Malatgao (b) 622 218 39.02 23.11 280 51.19 30.32 498 90.21 53.43 Un-Electrified Quinlogan 1121 392 70.17 41.55 505 90.22 53.42 897 160.39 94.97 Un-Electrified Sowangan 529 185 33.12 19.61 238 41.89 24.8 423 75.01 44.41 Un-Electrified Tagusao 726 254 45.47 26.92 327 58.71 34.77 581 104.18 61.69 Un-Electrified Antonino 189 66 11.81 7 85 15.39 9.12 151 27.2 16.12 Un-Electrified Bagong Bayan (c) 194 68 12.17 7.21 87 15.75 9.33 155 27.92 16.54 Un-Electrified Barangay V (Pob) (Porao Is) 41 0.18 0.11 2 0.36 0.21 3 0.54 0.32 Un-Electrified Barangay VI (Pob) (Johnson 127 44 7.88 4.66 58 10.38 6.15 102 18.26 10.81 Un-Electrified Caramay 540 189 33.83 20.03 243 43.68 25.86 432 77.51 45.89 Un-Electrified Dumarao 525 184 32.94 19.5 236 42.24 25.02 420 75.18 44.52 Un-Electrified Santo Tomas (Iraan) 170 60 10.74 6.36 76 13.6 8.06 136 24.34 14.42 Un-Electrified Jolo 180 63 11.28 6.68 81 14.68 8.69 144 25.96 15.37 Un-Electrified Mendoza 307 107 19.15 11.34 139 25.06 14.84 246 44.21 26.18 Un-Electrified ROXAS Nicanor Zabara 372 130 23.27 13.78 168 30.07 17.81 298 53.34 31.59 Un-Electrified Rizal (b) 177 62 11.1 6.57 80 14.32 8.48 142 25.42 15.05 Un-Electrified Salvacion (b) 148 52 9.31 5.51 66 11.81 7 118 21.12 12.51 Un-Electrified San Isidro (c) 121 42 7.52 4.45 55 10.02 5.94 97 17.54 10.39 Un-Electrified San Miguel (b) 209 73 13.07 7.74 94 16.83 9.96 167 29.9 17.7 Un-Electrified San Nicolas (c) 158 55 9.85 5.83 71 12.89 7.63 126 22.74 13.46 Un-Electrified Sandoval (c) 368 129 23.09 13.67 165 29.71 17.6 294 52.8 31.27 Un-Electrified Taradungan 221 77 13.78 8.16 100 17.9 10.6 177 31.68 18.76 Un-Electrified Tinitian 322 113 20.23 11.98 145 26.13 15.48 258 46.36 27.46 Un-Electrified Tumarabong 717 251 44.93 26.61 323 58 34.34 574 102.93 60.95 BAPA Port Barton* 1141 368 65.87 39.01 455 82.34 48.76 823 148.21 87.77 POPS Santo Nino (c) 237 65 11.64 6.89 75 13.43 7.95 140 25.07 14.84 Un-Electrified SAN Binga 356 125 22.38 13.25 160 29 17.17 285 51.38 30.42 Un-Electrified VICENTE Caruray 942 330 59.07 34.98 424 75.18 44.52 754 134.25 79.5 Un-Electrified Kemdeng 185 65 11.64 6.89 83 15.04 8.9 148 26.68 15.79 Un-Electrified New Canipo 281 98 17.54 10.39 127 22.55 13.36 225 40.09 23.75 BCS Banbanan 421 132 23.63 13.99 160 29 17.17 292 52.63 31.16 BCS Beton 322 97 17.36 10.28 116 20.05 11.87 213 37.41 22.15 SHS Busy Bees 236 76 13.6 8.06 93 16.47 9.75 169 30.07 17.81 BCS Calawag 1060 364 65.16 38.58 464 83.06 49.18 828 148.22 87.76 BCS Casian 617 200 35.8 21.2 249 35.8 21.2 449 71.6 42.4 SHS Cataban 228 73 13.07 7.74 89 29.36 17.38 162 42.43 25.12 TAYTAY BCS Debangan 296 88 15.75 9.33 104 16.11 9.54 192 31.86 18.87 BAPA Liminangcong 1108 283 50.66 30 303 18.62 11.02 586 69.28 41.02 SHS Pularaquen (Canique) 393 131 23.45 13.89 163 54.42 32.22 294 77.87 46.11 Un-Electrified Alacalian 452 158 28.28 16.75 204 36.52 21.62 362 64.8 38.37 Un-Electrified Bantulan 458 160 28.64 16.96 206 37.23 22.05 366 65.87 39.01 Un-Electrified Baras 110 39 6.98 4.13 49 8.95 5.3 88 15.93 9.43 Un-Electrified Batas 260 91 16.29 9.65 117 21.12 12.51 208 37.41 22.16 Un-Electrified Depla 255 89 15.93 9.43 115 20.59 12.19 204 36.52 21.62 Un-Electrified Libertad 437 153 27.39 16.22 197 35.44 20.99 350 62.83 37.21 Un-Electrified Meytegued 248 87 15.57 9.22 111 15.57 9.22 198 31.14 18.44 Un-Electrified Minapla 190 67 11.99 7.1 85 15.39 9.12 152 27.38 16.22 Un-Electrified New Guinlo 845 296 52.98 31.38 380 68.02 40.28 676 121 71.66 Un-Electrified Old Guinlo 182 64 11.46 6.78 82 14.68 8.69 146 26.14 15.47 Un-Electrified Paglaum 458 160 28.64 16.96 206 36.87 21.84 366 65.51 38.8 TAYTAY Un-Electrified Paly (Paly Is) 369 129 23.09 13.67 166 29.71 17.6 295 52.8 31.27 Un-Electrified Pamantolon 300 105 18.8 11.13 135 24.34 14.42 240 43.14 25.55 Un-Electrified Pancol 541 189 33.83 20.03 244 43.68 25.86 433 77.51 45.89 Un-Electrified San Jose (d) 416 146 26.13 15.48 187 33.65 19.93 333 59.78 35.41 Un-Electrified Sandoval (d) 270 95 17.01 10.07 121 21.84 12.93 216 38.85 23 Un-Electrified Silanga 216 76 13.6 8.06 97 17.54 10.39 173 31.14 18.45 Un-Electrified Talog 240 84 15.04 8.9 108 19.33 11.45 192 34.37 20.35 Un-Electrified Tumbod 370 130 23.27 13.78 166 29.71 17.6 296 52.98 31.38 POPS KALAYAAN Pag-asa (Pob) 14 2 0.36 0.21 1 0.36 0.21 3 0.72 0.42 BCS Galoc 301 98 17.54 10.39 123 22.2 13.14 221 39.74 23.53 BCSCULION Luac 690 235 42.07 24.91 297 53.34 31.59 532 95.41 56.5 Un-Electrified Binudac 453 159 28.46 16.85 203 36.52 21.62 362 64.98 38.47 BCS Bunog 1170 399 71.42 42.29 507 227.33 134.62 906 298.75 176.91 BCS Campung-ulay 1330 460 82.34 48.76 589 345.11 204.37 1049 427.45 253.13 BCS Candawaga 2845 991 177.39 105.05 1270 117.78 69.75 2261 295.17 174.8 BAPA Punta Baja 4674 1541 275.84 163.35 1928 90.93 53.85 3469 366.77 217.2 BCSRIZAL Taburi 1504 516 92.36 54.7 657 105.61 62.54 1173 197.97 117.24 Un-Electrified Canipaan 1199 420 75.18 44.52 539 96.66 57.24 959 171.84 101.76 (MARCOS) Un-Electrified Culacian (b) 939 329 58.89 34.87 422 75.54 44.73 751 134.43 79.6 Un-Electrified Iraan (b) 2877 1007 180.25 106.74 1295 231.98 137.38 2302 412.23 244.12 Un-Electrified Latud 815 285 51.02 30.21 367 65.87 39.01 652 116.89 69.22 Un-Electrified Panalingaan 1746 611 109.37 64.77 786 140.69 83.32 1397 250.06 148.09 Un-Electrified Ransang 2042 715 127.99 75.79 919 164.68 97.52 1634 292.67 173.31 Un-Electrified Iraray 703 246 44.03 26.08 316 56.56 33.5 562 100.59 59.58 Un-Electrified SOFRONIO Labog 957 335 59.97 35.51 431 77.33 45.79 766 137.3 81.3 Un-Electrified ESPANOLA Pulot Interior (Pulot II) 586 205 36.7 21.73 264 47.26 27.98 469 83.96 49.71 Un-Electrified Punang 732 256 45.82 27.14 330 59.07 34.98 586 104.89 62.12 Total 114826 37911 6786.15 4018.65 48224 8569.81 5074.93 86135 15355.96 9093.58

5-18 5.3 Example of Barangay Electrification Selection Method (Model Barangay)

The selection of an electrification method requires the estimation of electrification costs reflecting topographic conditions and power demand size of the target barangay. This section describes the procedure and the details of electrification cost for each method by using a model barangay.

5.3.1 Model Barangay

Table 5.3.1 shows the details of the model barangay.

Table 5.3.1 Details of Model Barangay Barangay Name Panalingaan, Rizal Potential Households in 2015 1,746 Households (Concentration Ratio) (0.5) (Capacity to Pay Factor) (0.7) Unit Energy Consumption 166 kWh / year / HH Unit Peak Demand 98 W / HH Maximum demand in 2015 59.9 kW ECAN condition Non- restricted area On-going electrification project No project

5.3.2 Assumptions of Electrification Methods

(1) Diesel power

(a) Mini-grid The required level of reliability for a mini-grid system will be similar to that of the EC-grid. Therefore, diesel generators that can provide a high level of reliability are assumed to be used. Moreover, in order to maintain reliability, periodical overhauls will be necessary, as well as backup systems in the cases of machine failures. Therefore, it is assumed that two sets of diesel generators will be installed for a mini-grid system. The capacity of diesel generator available on market with the acceptable level of reliability seems to be about 30kW output or more. Therefore, the capacity of a diesel generator for a mini-grid is set to 30kW or more. The Study team assumes an interest rate of 12% and constant electricity consumption after 2015 for the calculation of the LRMC of the mini-grid system. Also these assumptions are used for EC-grid extension and hydropower. Additionally, since the condition of the secondary distribution line in a barangay center required in a mini-grid system is the same as that in an EC-grid extension, the electrification cost for selecting the system does not contain the cost of this secondary line.6

6 The cost of secondary distribution line is calculated in Section 5.4.5

5-19 Table 5.3.2 Assumptions for Cost Estimation (Mini-grid, Diesel) Item Condition Remarks Unit Capacity 60 kW No. of Unit 2 unit One extra unit for backup Diesel generator 14,400 Php/kW Estimated on the basis of the data from NPC-SPUG Maintenance Cost 1.41 Php/kWh Rectified value by comparing the standard expense in Japan with the expense of NPC-SPUG Lifetime 70,000 ope. Hours Assume 70% of standard lifetime for a middle speed engine Thermal efficiency 30% Value lower than standard Fuel Cost 27 Php/L The highest purchase price of NPC-SPUG in Palawan Labor Cost 8,000 Php/month 2 persons, actual salary from one BAPA in Palawan

Table 5.3.3 Electrification Cost (Mini-grid, Diesel) Item Unit Cost Project Cost Php 1,728,000 LRMC Php/kWh 14.81

(b) Stand-alone For a stand-alone system, a diesel generator requires the similar reliability level of SHS. However, the crucial problem of an inexpensive diesel generator is its sustainability. In areas electrified by inexpensive diesel generators, the maintenance is almost non-existent except for oil and filter changes. It seems difficult to expect sufficient maintenance in those areas. In most of these areas, diesel generators seem to break down within about four years of operation, with only make shift repairs that extend their life for very short periods before they are totally discarded. Therefore, the life of the diesel engine for a stand-alone system is presumed to be short, so that replacement can occur before failure or the need for major overhauls. The assumptions related to a diesel generator for a stand-alone system are shown in Tables 5.3.4 and 5.3.5.

Considering the short lifetime of a diesel generator for a stand-alone system, replacement cost for the period of 20 years (same as lifetime of SHS) is included in the electrification cost. Designing a diesel generator for a stand-alone system requires the assumed number of households to which electricity is supplied. The Study team set the number of 20 households for the system on the basis of the actual condition of areas electrified by private owned diesel generators (generally 20-30 households, refer to Section 3.4.2 (1)).

Table 5.3.4 Assumptions for Cost Estimation (Stand-Alone, Diesel) Item Condition Remarks Unit Capacity 3 kW 20 households supply Diesel Generator 10,400 Php/kW Estimated on the basis of local cost and the data from NPC-SPUG Maintenance Cost 5,000 Php/year Oil filter change Lifetime 4,000 ope. Hours 4 ope.hours/day, replacement of engine every 3 years Thermal Efficiency 20% Value lower than standard Fuel Cost 27 Php/L The highest purchase price of NPC-SPUG in Palawan Labor Cost 4,000 Php/month 2 persons, actual salary from one BAPA in Palawan

5-20

Table 5.3.5 Electrification Cost (Stand-Alone, Diesel) Item Unit Cost Project Cost Php 69,872* Electrification Cost per HH Php/HH 3,494* Annual Cost per HH Php/year/HH 3,384* * Including cost of diesel generator replacement for 20 years

(2) Hydropower

(a) The basic data for cost estimation Since most of the works, especially civil Table 5.3.6 Unit Costs used in the Study construction works, will be conducted in Palawan, Unit Name Unit Cost Concrete Work the project costs should be estimated using Palawan Common Concrete 3,134 PHP/m3 unit costs. The unit cost data was obtained from Rubble Masory Concrete 2,712 PHP/m3 interviews with DPWH, PNCC, NIA, turbine and Concrete Spray 13,622 PHP/m3 Invert Concrete 4,990 PHP/m3 generator companies in Europe, consultant Excavation Work companies in Manila and local construction Common Excavation 136 PHP/m3 companies in Palawan Reports on past feasibility Rock Excavation 314 PHP/m3 Hydrolic Work studies were also used. DOE does not have specific Gate 547,000 PHP/ton construction cost data since the DOE's main roles are Screen 10,000 PHP/ton Penstock Conduit 480,000 PHP/ton to promote mini and micro hydropower and to Others support LGUs to plan and construct mini and micro Reinforcement Bar 30,900 PHP/ton hydropower facilities both technically and financially. Access Road 239 PHP/m2 DOE merely evaluates project proposals that LGUs, NGOs and other organizations submit to DOE, and does not estimate costs by themselves. The cost data used for the estimation is listed below. The details of cost estimation will be explained in the Annex.

The lifetime of a hydropower facility is generally set at 40 years including both civil structures and mechanical-electrical equipment. This Study also uses 40 years.

(b) Hydro project for the model Barangay Based on the conditions of the model barangay, the Study team set a model hydropower project in order to make comparisons with other generation types. The basic concepts for setting a hydropower project for the model barangay are: 1) the nearest river that has enough water for generation during the dry season is chosen for a potential site in order to minimize the length of distribution lines and 2) the capacity should be enough for covering the demand of the target households in the barangay in 2015. The concept is outlined in the Figure 5.3.1, and the conditions and the costs of the micro-hydropower for the model barangay are shown in the Table 5.3.7 and Table 5.3.87.

7 There are no potential sites for micro-hydropower around the center of barangay Salogan. Therefore, for the model hydropower project, various specifications for the civil structures were set using the Salogan project (newly identified by the Study team). The reasons for choosing the Salogan project were: (1) the data of civil structures are general, (2) the number of households in Barangay Samanñana and the nearest barangay from the Salogan power station are almost the same as the targets in the model barangay.

5-21

Figure 5.3.1 Image of Hydropower for the Model Barangay

Table 5.3.7 Assumptions for Cost Estimation (Micro-Hydropower) Item Condition Installed Capacity 60 kW Effective Head 40 m Maximum Discharge Water 0.181 m3/sec Flow Utilization Factor 90% Length of Distribution Line 3.7 km O&M Cost 2% of annualized construction cost Lifetime 40 years

Table 5.3.8 Electrification Cost (Micro-Hydropower)

Item Unit Cost

Project Cost Php 15,819,000 Development Cost Php/kW 263,650 LRMC Php/kWh 28.72

(3) Distribution line extension Distribution line extension cost means expenses to construct distribution lines between the center of the model barangay and the nearest tapping point of the existing distribution lines. In this connection, the cost excludes the expenses for installing secondary distribution lines between the tapping point of the center and each consumer in the model barangay.

Barangay Panalingaan is located far from the existing distribution line. It is about 34km from the PALECO distribution line in BATARAZA and 38km from the Rizal local government unit network. Neighbor barangays are located at less than 10km but have not yet been energized. This barangay is not feasible for EC-grid extension based on the actual situation. But in the model study calculation, the distance from the nearest tapping point is considered as a variable to generalize the calculation result.

5-22 Regarding unit construction cost, the Study employs the actual construction cost of PALECO and not NEA (see Table 3.4.7, 3.4.8, 3.4.9). Lifetime for a wood pole is usually 15 years. But PALECO is installing exported wood poles that have lifetimes of 40 years in tropical conditions. In this calculation, lifetime is set at 40 years. Usually distribution line facilities do not need periodic maintenance. The cost of lineman only for the tapping line is negligible. Only fuel costs for electric supply per kWh are considered as operation cost. Table 5.3.9 shows the assumptions for the distribution line extension.

Table 5.3.9 Assumptions for Cost Estimation (Distribution Line Extension) Distance between the centers of Bgy. and the nearest tapping Parameter of calculation point Unit cost for distribution line construction 817,473 Php/km Lifetime for distribution line 40 years Operation Cost 3.41 Php/kWh

The results of the calculation are shown in formulas 5.3.1 and 5.3.2.

Construction Cost = 817,473 x Distance (km) (Php/km) Formula 5.3.1 LRMC = 1.38 x Distance + 3.43 (Php/kWh) Formula 5.3.2

(4) Solar power There are several design methods for solar power systems. Among these methods, the parametric design method was adopted in this Study since this method is simple and easy to understand. The parametric design method has been applied for many solar power projects and has a good track record for generating adequate results for formulating the Master Plan. Another method, such as the simulation design method, can offer more precise results, but this method is more suitable for assessments of larger scale projects. As for the detailed of design method, refer to the Annex.

(a) SHS Table 5.3.10 shows the assumptions for cost estimation of the SHS system and Table 5.3.11 shows the cost of SHS.

Table 5.3.10 Assumptions for Cost Estimation (SHS) Item Condition Remarks Design Parameter 0.6 Estimated on the basis of actual data and typical value Inclined solar radiation 4 kWh/m2/day PV module angle 15 degree Calculation result based on actual temperature and specification of System Efficiency 60% equipments Battery Voltage 12 V Availability of battery in rural area Depth of Charge 50% Performance of available battery of rural area Consecutive cloud day 3 days Based on the actual solar duration data System Cost 30,380Php/unit Based on the DOE project data, hearing with manufactures and website Lifetime 20 years

5-23 Table 5.3.11 Electrification Cost (SHS) Item Unit Cost System Cost Php 30,380 Electrification Cost per HH Php 30,380 Annual Cost per HH Php/year/hh 5,437

(b) BCS Most of the parameters for BCS are identical to those for SHS. Table 5.3.12 shows additional parameters required to design BCS. The detailed designing of BCS requires setting the number of target households to be electrified based on a more detailed socio-economic survey8. In the Study the number of target households is set at 15 households, based on the threshold defined by the comparison of economic features of SHS and a mini-diesel generator for a stand-alone system. Table 5.3.13 shows the cost of electrification by BCS.

Table 5.3.12 Assumptions for Cost Estimation (BCS) Item Condition Remarks The number of Economic threshold between SHS and mini-diesel for target household to be electrified 15 stand-alone system Maximum battery capacity 70 Ah Availability and portability in rural area Charging frequency 3 日/回 40Wh/day/HH

Table 5.3.13 Electrification Cost (BCS) Item Unit System Cost Php 214,630 Electrification Cost per HH Php/HH 14,308 Annual Cost per HH Php/ year/HH 2,272

(c) PV Hybrid system In the Master Plan a PV hybrid system is not considered as a candidate system for barangay electrification. The reasons are as follows.

Assumptions For the analysis of a hybrid system, the Study team assumes that a PV system is added on a diesel generator for a mini-grid system discussed in the above section.

Results - High initial investment cost and high production cost. Investment Cost 27 million Php Production Cost 48 Php/kWh

- Less contribution of CO2 credit from reduction of GHG to saving investment cost Contribution of credit estimated based on the Proto-type Carbon Fund of the World Bank

(US/t-CO2) is 0.1 Php/kWh, which cannot reduce the production cost to the level of diesel power for the mini-grid system discussed in the above section.

8 Evaluation of superiority of BCS to SHS and mini-diesel requires detailed socio-economic surveys of the target barangay to grasp its economic conditions, the number of target households to be electrified and concentration level of households in the barangay. Therefore, field survey covering these aspects should be conducted in future FS.

5-24 (6) Wind power Available generation from wind power systems is calculated on the condition that the wind speed used in the calculation is adjusted to the USAID level, and electrification cost is estimated. As a result, the investment cost and production cost is remarkably higher than with other systems. Therefore, the Study team decided that wind power is out as a candidate system for barangay electrification in the Master Plan. Table 5.3.14 shows the assumptions for the cost estimation of wind power and Table 5.3.15 shows the electrification cost of the system.

Table 5.3.14 Assumptions for Cost Estimation (Wind Power) Item Condition Remarks Maximum Demand of each HH 40 WHH Data from demand forecast, demand same as SHS Daily Demand of each HH 120 Wh/day/HH Data from demand forecast, demand same as SHS Installed Capacity 7.5 kW High plant factor, less than 100kW in capacity Battery Voltage 12 V Availability of batteries in rural areas Depth of Charge 50% Performance of available batteries in rural areas Battery Capacity 10 days demand Availability of batteries in rural areas Continuance Supply Capacity 550 Wh/day Minimum number of 10 days SMA (Single Moving Average) No. of Target Electrified 4 HH/unit Based on demand per HH and continuance supply capacity

Table 5.3.15 Electrification Cost (Wind Power) Item Unit Cost 3 System Cost Php 2,744 x 10 3 Electrification Cost per HH Php/HH 686 x 10 2,324 Production Cost Php/kWh

5.3.3 Selection of Electrification Method (Model Barangay)

(1) Screening by restricted areas for development and on-going electrification programs The model barangay has no restrictions on development activities or on-going electrification projects. Therefore, this screening is not used to identify an electrification method for the model barangay.

(2) Examine the possibility of EC-grid extension As mentioned in Section 5.1.5 (3), firstly the LRMC of the EC-grid and the mini-grid system (diesel, and if suitable site is near the target barangay, micro-hydropower) is calculated to meet the demand of target households to be electrified. The possibility of an EC-grid extension is examined, while comparing the LRMC of each system. Figure 5.3.2 shows the comparison of the LRMC of each system.

5-25

8km

Figure 5.3.2 LRMC Comparison of the EC-Grid Extension and Mini-Grid System (Model Barangay)

As shown in Figure 5.3.2, in the case that the distance from the center of the model barangay to the nearest tapping point is shorter than 8km, an EC-grid extension is selected as an appropriate method for the model barangay.

(3) Examine the possibility of a mini-grid system In the case that the distance from the center of the model barangay to the nearest tapping point is longer than 8km, an EC-grid extension is not justified in the screening above, and so the possibility of a mini-grid system or another suitable type of system is examined. As described in Section 5.1.5, a mini-grid system is not applied to barangays with the potential demand of less than 30kW due to the reliability of diesel power and the economical efficiency of hydropower for a mini-grid system. In the case of the model barangay, the potential demand (59.9 kW) is larger than 30kW. Therefore, the barangay has the possibility of a mini-grid system. As for the type of the system, it is concluded that diesel power is more suitable than hydropower for the model barangay.

(4) Examine the possibility of a stand-alone system A stand-alone system is not selected as an electrification method for the model barangay.

5-26 5.4 Scenario Options

5.4.1 Scenarios for Barangay Electrification

The scenario for barangay electrification in the Study is outlined below:

(1) Base scenario (Least cost electrification) Using the above methodology to select the appropriate electrification method, a plan to electrify all the un-electrified barangays by the year 2006 will be determined. The base scenario will be the electrification case involving the least cost, which selects the electrification method from economical point of view in accordance with the MEDP 2003 criteria, which places a high priority on economic efficiency.

(2) Reliability-oriented scenario (Utilization of grid extension) Reliability is different among various electrification methods. Extension of the existing grid provides 24-hour power supply, whereas a mini-grid system provides around 6 hours and a stand-alone system provides electricity that is barely sufficient for lighting alone. Therefore, in addition to the base scenario, the reliability-oriented electrification method will be studied as an alternative case. For this scenario, special weight will be put on reliability by allowing double the cost for grid extension in selecting an electrification method. Timing of the implementation will be the same as the base scenario.

(3) Environment-friendly scenario (Utilization of hydropower resources) MEDP 2003 has a strategy to promote hydropower because hydropower is a renewable and domestic energy. Hydropower may enjoy low-interest funding because it is environmental friendly and so a special weight allowing quadruple the cost of diesel power will be applied in selecting the electrification method. Timing of the implementation will be the same as the base scenario.

5.4.2 Technical Study for Barangay Electrification Plan

(1) On-going electrification projects Only 1 barangay shall be electrified in 2004 by an on-going electrification project as of the end of December in 2003. Table 5.4.1 shows the details of that barangay. The Study excluded it as a target for the whole barangay electrification.

Table 5.4.1 On-going Electrification Project (As of end of December in 2003) Barangay Municipality Implementation Schedule Method Candawaga Rizal UNDP 2004 Stand-Alone

5-27 (2) Technical study for EC-grid extension

(a) Creation of the regression curve for screening EC-grid extension The screening curve is created as shown below in order to choose barangays electrified with EC-grid extension.

(i) 4 barangays with different numbers of households are chosen. (ii) The distance from the tapping point to the point where the LRMC or EC-grid extension and that of the diesel cross is computed for each barangay. (iii) A regression curve for screening, which shows the relation between potential households and maximum distance from tapping point, is estimated from 4 cross points.

Table 5.4.2 Regression Curve Creation Distribution Line LRMC Mini-grid* Potential Cross Point Municipality Barangay LRMC Household 5km 30km (km) (Php/kWh) Bataraza Bulalacao 190 23.28 123.26 17.75 3.59 Bataraza Tarusan 383 13.33 62.94 14.96 5.82 Rizal Panalingaan 611 10.33 44.95 15.03 8.39 Rizal Iraan 1,007 7.61 28.62 13.69 12.23 *LRMC of a diesel power for a mini-grid system

Figure 5.4.1 shows the results of 16.00 the regression line. This figure 14.00 shows that if a potential HH at 2015 12.00 and a distance from the tapping 10.00 point of a barangay are located on the lower side of the line, that 8.00 barangay should be electrified by 6.00 distribution line extension. 4.00 Conversely, if potential 2.00 households and the distance are Distance from tapping point (km) 0.00 located upper side of the line, that 0 500 1000 1500 barangay should be electrified by a Potential HH at 2015 mini-grid system. Figure 5.4.1 Screening Line

The formulas of the regression line are as below:

Base Scenario : Distance = 0.0106 x Potential HH + 1.7284 Formula 5.4.1 Reliability-Oriented Scenario : Distance = 2 x (0.0106 x Potential HH + 1.7284) Formula 5.4.2

5-28 (b) Calculation of distance between barangay centers The location of the center of each barangay is determined with the GIS data. Using these data, the distance in a straight line between barangays is created on an Excel sheet. With those distances and the results of potential household estimations, all barangays are checked by the above-mentioned Formulas 5.4.1 or 5.4.2.

(c) Checking the possibilities of EC-grid extension on the map After checking with these formulas, distribution line routes are checked on the map. Even if a certain barangay has a suitable distance for an EC-grid extension, it still cannot be chosen if the neighbor/source barangay is not electrified or is not suitable for EC-grid extension. In other cases, when the source barangay is on the different side of a channel, the EC-grid extension also cannot be chosen. Finally only 6 barangays are selected as the barangays that are feasible to be electrified by EC-grid extension.

(3) Mini-grid system

(a) Diesel power plant for a mini-grid system The Study team estimated development costs for installing a diesel power plant for a mini-grid system based on the cost data that is shown in the NPC-SPUG Development Plan 2002, and set the capacity of a diesel generator to meet the potential demand of each barangay. Table 5.4.3 shows development costs of a diesel power plant for a mini-grid system.

Table 5.4.3 Development Costs of a Diesel Power Plant for a Mini-Grid System Potential Demand Capacity9 Development Cost (Php) 30 kW – 34 kW 34 kW 979,200 – 50 kW 50 kW 1,440,000 – 63 kW 63 kW 1,814,400 – 87 kW 87 kW 2,505,600 – 108 kW 108 kW 3,110,400

(b) Micro hydropower plant for a mini-grid system As shown in Table 4.1.14 and Figure 4.1.9, the Study team found only 1 site (Aramaywan in Mun. RIZAL) for micro hydropower in Palawan. Table 5.4.4 shows the development cost of the micro hydropower plant of Aramaywan.

Table 5.4.4 Development Cost of Micro Hydropower for Mini-Grid System Name of Site Location Capacity Potential Demand in 2015 Development Cost (Php) Aramaywan Bgy. Aramaywan 39 kW 30.42 kW 20,069,000

9 Assumed capacity of 90% of PERKINS’s plant capacity.

5-29 (c) Selection of a power plant for a mini-grid system The power plant for a mini-grid system is selected by comparing the LRMC of power plants for a target barangay. The Study team found only 1 micro hydropower site, therefore, compared both the LRMC of diesel power and micro hydropower for Bgy. Aramaywan. Table 5.4.5 shows the LRMC of each power plant.

Table 5.4.5 LRMC Comparison of Micro Hydropower and Diesel Power for a Mini-Grid System

Plant Type Capacity Potential Demand in 2015 LRMC Diesel power 34 kW 15.50 Php/kWh 30.42 kW Micro hydropower 39 kW 61.22 Php/kWh

(4) Stand-alone system As a result of the screening (1)-(3) above, in the case that a stand-alone system is selected as the electrification method of a certain barangay, the type of the system is chosen from 3 options (SHS, BCS and a mini-diesel) However, as discussed in Section 5.3.2, it is not adequate to compare the electrification cost of each type on an equal footing to evaluate superiority since the important parameters that affect the superiority are not determined and also their unit power demand assumptions vary from type to type. Therefore, the Study team assumed the allocation ratio shown in Table 5.4.6 for the type of system. Also the number of households to be electrified for each barangay is assumed to be 20 households.

Table 5.4.6 Allocation of each Type of a Stand-Alone System and Electrification Cost

Item SHS BCS Mini-Diesel Weighted Average Allocation Ratio 40% 30% 30% Electrification Cost per HH 30,380 Php/HH 14,308 Php/HH 3,494 Php/HH 17,493 Php/HH

5.4.3 Results of Barangay Electrification Screening

The results of barangay electrification screening in each scenario are outlined below:

(1) Base scenario (Least cost electrification) The EC-grid extension is selected for 6 barangays, a mini-grid for 23 barangays and a stand-alone system for 132 barangays. Although one barangay, Bgy. Babuyan in Mun. PUERTO PRINCESA, has already been electrified by a stand-alone system as of the end of December in 2003, EC-grid extension is selected for this barangay because upgrading the electrification method from a stand-alone to an EC-grid is justified. As for the timing of electrification, the Study team assumed that all mini-grid systems will be installed in 2006 in consideration of the construction period.

5-30 EC-grid extension and stand-alone systems are allocated each year between 2004 and 2006 to level the annual costs per year. Total investment costs up to 2006 are estimated to be 183.3 million pesos.

Table 5.4.7 Barangay Electrification Plan (Base Scenario) No. of Barangay Investment Cost (million Php) Electrification Year Year Method Sub Total Sub Total 2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 2006

EC-grid extension 6 3 2 1 **22.1 **9.5 **8.7 **3.9

Mini-grid 23 0 0 23 115.0 0 0 115.0

Stand-alone 132 60 60 12 46.2 21.0 21.0 4.2

Total *161 63 62 36 183.3 30.5 29.7 123.1 * No. of Barangays exceeds 160 because it includes grade-up electrification ** Includes countermeasure costs for voltage drops caused by EC-grid distribution line expansion (refer to Section 5.4.4)

Table 5.4.8 Number of Barangays Electrified (Base Scenario) Electrification Electrification Electrification Number of Barangay Status Method Level As of the end of 2003 2015 LEVEL III 44 44 LEVEL II 111 117 EC-grid extension LEVEL I 57 57 Sub Total ( 212) ( 218) LEVEL II 1 29 Electrified Mini-grid LEVEL I 5 0 Sub Total ( 6) ( 29) LEVEL II 6 184 Stand-alone LEVEL I 47 0 Sub Total ( 53) ( 184) Total ( 271) ( 431) Un-electrified ( 160) ( 0) Grand Total 431 431

Table 5.4.9 Transition of Number of Households Electrified (Base Scenario) As of the end of 2003 2015 Electrification Electrification Number of Number of Status Method Share in Share in Household Electrified Bgy. Household Electrified Bgy. EC-Grid extension 54,416 95.6 % 88,927 62.3 % Mini-Grid 870 1.5 % 11,745 8.2 ％ Electrified Stand-Alone 1,638 2.9% 42,186 29.5 ％ Total ( 56,924) (100%) (142,858) (100%) Number of Households in Palawan (167,391) (262,303) Household Electrification 34.0％ 54.4% Ratio in Palawan

5-31 Table 5.4.10 List of Barangays Electrified by EC-grid Extension (Base Scenario) Current Electrification Level Investment Cost Barangay Municipality Source Barangay (Method) (million Php)* Babuyan Puerto Princesa LEVEL I (Stand-alone) Maoyon 3.6 Imulnod Brooke’s Point Un-electrified Mainit 2.0 Malatgao Quezon Un-electrified Panitian 3.6 Malihud Bataraza Un-electrified Bono Bono 4.8 Bulalacao Bataraza Un-electrified Malihud 3.9 Tarusan Bataraza Un-electrified Bulalacao 3.9 Total 22.1 *Including the cost of secondary distribution lines in the center of the barangay (refer to Section 5.4.4)

Table 5.4.11 List of Barangays Electrified by Mini-grid System (Base Scenario) Demand of Type of Investment Cost Barangay Municipality Capacity Target HH System (million Php)* Algeciras AGUTAYA 75.4 kW Diesel 87 kW 3.7 Conception (a) 54.8 kW Diesel 63 kW 3.2 Bancalaan BALABAC 71.4 kW Diesel 87 kW 4.6 Mangsee 56.3 kW Diesel 63 kW 4.1 Culandanum (b) BATARAZA 43.5 kW Diesel 50 kW 4.3 Rio Tuba 105.6 kW Diesel 108 kW 7.5 Sandoval (a) 30.7 kW Diesel 34 kW 5.2 Sumbiling 30.5 kW Diesel 34 kW 3.6 Bucana EL NIDO 51.2 kW Diesel 63 kW 5.3 Teneguiban 37.6 kW Diesel 50 kW 6.7 Cabayugan PUERTO PRINCESA 30.5 kW Diesel 34 kW 3.4 Aramaywan (b) QUEZON 30.4 kW Diesel 34 kW 5.2 Isugud 33.7 kW Diesel 34 kW 4.0 Quinlogan 41.6 kW Diesel 50 kW 4.5 Caruray SAN VICENTE 35.0 kW Diesel 50 kW 4.4 New Guinlo TAYTAY 31.4 kW Diesel 34 kW 4.3 Canipaan RIZAL 44.5 kW Diesel 50 kW 4.7 Culacian (b) 34.9 kW Diesel 50 kW 3.0 Iraan (b) 106.7 kW Diesel 108 kW 9.3 Latud 30.2 kW Diesel 34 kW 6.5 Panalingaan 64.8 kW Diesel 87 kW 5.8 Ransang 75.8 kW Diesel 87 kW 6.9 Labog SOFRONO ESPANOLA 35.5 kW Diesel 50 kW 5.0 Total 115.0 *Including the cost of secondary distribution lines in the center of the barangay (refer to Section 5.4.4)

5-32 Table 5.4.12 Results of Screening (Base Scenario) (Un-electrified Barangays: 160 Bgys.) Potential Demand (6-hours, II) Number of Restriction Screening EC-grid- Present Final Municipality Barabgay Mini-grid Potential HH (ECAN Zoning, expansion Electrification Result Name Name Energy Peak No of HH Screening 2015 (MWh) (kW) to electrify On-Going Project ) Screening Method (Base Scenario) Culandanum (a) 256 16.11 9.54 90 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone ABORLAN Sagpangan 470 29.54 17.49 165 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Algeciras 2031 127.27 75.37 711 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Conception (a) 1477 92.54 54.80 517 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Diit 752 47.08 27.88 263 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone AGUTAYA Maracanao 99 6.27 3.71 35 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Matarawis 88 5.55 3.29 31 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Villafria 348 21.84 12.93 122 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Villasol 524 32.76 19.40 183 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Balogo 105 6.62 3.92 37 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Dagman 174 10.92 6.47 61 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Dalayawon 87 5.37 3.18 30 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Lumacad 112 6.98 4.13 39 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Madoldolon 95 5.91 3.50 33 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone ARACELI Mauringuen 158 9.85 5.83 55 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Osmena (a) 158 9.85 5.83 55 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone San Jose De Oro 59 3.76 2.23 21 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Santo Nino (a) 86 5.37 3.18 30 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Taloto 113 7.16 4.24 40 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Agutayan 177 11.1 6.57 62 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Bancalaan 1926 120.65 71.44 674 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Bugsuk (New Cagayancillo) 280 17.54 10.39 98 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Catagupan 445 27.92 16.54 156 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Indalawan 271 17.01 10.07 95 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Malaking Ilog 217 13.6 8.06 76 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Mangsee 1517 95.05 56.29 531 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid BALABAC Melville 280 17.54 10.39 98 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Pandanan 178 11.1 6.57 62 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Pasig 122 7.7 4.56 43 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Rabor 136 8.59 5.09 48 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Ramos 429 26.85 15.90 150 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Salang 651 40.81 24.17 228 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Sebaring 249 15.57 9.22 87 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Bulalacao (a) 543 34.01 20.14 190 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Buliluyan 408 25.6 15.16 143 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Culandanum (b) 1170 73.39 43.46 410 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Igang igang 412 25.78 15.26 144 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Iwahig 691 43.32 25.65 242 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Malihud 522 32.76 19.40 183 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Malitub 192 11.99 7.10 67 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Ocayan 559 35.08 20.78 196 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Puring 275 17.18 10.18 96 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone BATARAZA Rio Tuba 2845 178.28 105.58 996 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Sandoval (a) 829 51.91 30.74 290 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Sapa 464 29 17.17 162 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Sarong 607 37.95 22.47 212 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Sumbiling 824 51.55 30.53 288 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Tabud 307 19.15 11.34 107 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Tagnato 217 13.6 8.06 76 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Tagolango 226 14.14 8.37 79 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Taratak 574 35.98 21.31 201 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Tarusan 1093 68.56 40.60 383 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion BROOKE'S P. Imulnod 480 30.07 17.81 168 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Burabod 101 6.27 3.71 35 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Cheey 551 34.55 20.46 193 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone BUSUANGA Halsey 136 8.59 5.09 48 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Maglalambay 246 15.39 9.12 86 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone CAGAYAN Magsaysay (a) 246 15.39 9.12 86 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Mampio 97 6.09 3.60 34 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone -CILLO Nusa 87 5.37 3.18 30 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Caponayan 271 17.01 10.07 95 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone CUYO Lubid 201 12.53 7.42 70 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Capayas 353 22.2 13.14 124 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Ilian 416 26.13 15.48 146 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone San Juan (b) 245 15.39 9.12 86 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone DUMARAN Santa Maria 216 13.6 8.06 76 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Santo Tomas 327 20.41 12.08 114 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Tanatanaon 409 25.6 15.16 143 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Barotuan 635 39.74 23.53 222 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Bebeladan 572 35.8 21.20 200 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Bucana 1378 86.28 51.09 482 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Mabini (b) 331 20.76 12.30 116 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Manlag 510 32.04 18.97 179 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone EL NIDO New Ibajay 769 48.15 28.51 269 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone (BACUIT) Pasadena 430 27.03 16.01 151 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone San Fernando 525 32.94 19.50 184 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Sibartan 440 27.57 16.32 154 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Teneguiban 1015 63.55 37.63 355 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Villa Libertad 434 27.21 16.11 152 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Villa Paz 306 19.15 11.34 107 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone LINAPACAN Nangalao 428 26.85 15.90 150 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Alcoba 72 4.48 2.65 25 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone MAGSAYSAY Canipo 199 12.53 7.42 70 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Cocoro 176 11.1 6.57 62 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone

5-33 Table 5.4.12 Results of Screening (Base Scenario) (Continued) Potential Demand (6-hours, II) Number of Restriction Screening EC-grid- Present Final Municipality Barabgay Mini-grid Potential HH (ECAN Zoning, expansion Electrification Result Name Name Energy Peak # of HH Screening 2015 (MWh) (kW) to electrify On-Going Project ) Screening Method (Base Scenario) Bagong Bayan (b) 247 15.39 9.12 86 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Bahile 756 47.44 28.09 265 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Binduyan 315 19.69 11.66 110 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Buena Vista (b) 285 17.9 10.60 100 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Cabayugan 822 51.55 30.53 288 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Conception (c) 404 25.24 14.95 141 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone PUERTO PRINCESA Langogan 613 38.49 22.79 215 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone CITY (CAPITAL) Macarascas 516 32.4 19.19 181 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Marufinas 194 12.17 7.21 68 ECAN(Stand-Alone) Stand-Alone New Panggangan 216 13.6 8.06 76 ECAN(Stand-Alone) Stand-Alone San Rafael (b) 608 38.13 22.58 213 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Simpocan 358 22.38 13.25 125 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Tagabinit 451 28.28 16.75 158 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Tanabag 174 10.92 6.47 61 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Aramaywan (b) 819 51.37 30.42 287 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Kalatagbak 420 26.31 15.58 147 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Calumpang 514 32.22 19.08 180 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Isugod 908 56.92 33.71 318 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid QUEZON Maasin (b) 454 28.46 16.85 159 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Malatgao (b) 622 39.02 23.11 218 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Quinlogan 1121 70.17 41.55 392 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Sowangan 529 33.12 19.61 185 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Tagusao 726 45.47 26.92 254 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Antonino 189 11.81 7.00 66 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Bagong Bayan (c) 194 12.17 7.21 68 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Barangay V (Pob) (Porao Is) 4 0.18 0.11 1 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Barangay VI (Pob) (Johnson) 127 7.88 4.66 44 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Caramay 540 33.83 20.03 189 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Dumarao 525 32.94 19.50 184 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Santo Tomas (Iraan) 170 10.74 6.36 60 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Jolo 180 11.28 6.68 63 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Mendoza 307 19.15 11.34 107 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone ROXAS Nicanor Zabara 372 23.27 13.78 130 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Rizal (b) 177 11.1 6.57 62 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Salvacion (b) 148 9.31 5.51 52 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone San Isidro (c) 121 7.52 4.45 42 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone San Miguel (b) 209 13.07 7.74 73 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone San Nicolas (c) 158 9.85 5.83 55 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Sandoval (c) 368 23.09 13.67 129 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Taradungan 221 13.78 8.16 77 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Tinitian 322 20.23 11.98 113 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Tumarabong 717 44.93 26.61 251 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Binga 356 22.38 13.25 125 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone SAN Caruray 942 59.07 34.98 330 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid VICENTE Kemdeng 185 11.64 6.89 65 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone New Canipo 281 17.54 10.39 98 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Alacalian 452 28.28 16.75 158 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Bantulan 458 28.64 16.96 160 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Baras 110 6.98 4.13 39 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Batas 260 16.29 9.65 91 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Depla 255 15.93 9.43 89 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Libertad 437 27.39 16.22 153 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Meytegued 248 15.57 9.22 87 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Minapla 190 11.99 7.10 67 ECAN(Stand-Alone) Stand-Alone New Guinlo 845 52.98 31.38 296 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid TAYTAY Old Guinlo 182 11.46 6.78 64 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Paglaum 458 28.64 16.96 160 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Paly (Paly Is) 369 23.09 13.67 129 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Pamantolon 300 18.8 11.13 105 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Pancol 541 33.83 20.03 189 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone San Jose (d) 416 26.13 15.48 146 ECAN(Stand-Alone) Stand-Alone Sandoval (d) 270 17.01 10.07 95 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Silanga 216 13.6 8.06 76 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Talog 240 15.04 8.90 84 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Tumbod 370 23.27 13.78 130 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone CULION Binudac 453 28.46 16.85 159 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Canipaan 1199 75.18 44.52 420 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Culacian (b) 939 58.89 34.87 329 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid RIZAL Iraan (b) 2877 180.25 106.74 1007 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid (MARCOS) Latud 815 51.02 30.21 285 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Panalingaan 1746 109.37 64.77 611 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Ransang 2042 127.99 75.79 715 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Iraray 703 44.03 26.08 246 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone SOFRONIO Labog 957 59.97 35.51 335 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid ESPANOLA Pulot Interior (Pulot II) 586 36.7 21.73 205 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Punang 732 45.82 27.14 256 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Grid-Extension 5 Mini-Grid 23 Stand-Alone 132 Total 160

5-34 Table 5.4.12 Results of Screening (Base Scenario) (Continued) (Bgys. electrified by SHS, BCS, BAPA, LGU and others: 59 Bgys.) Potential Demand (6-hours, II) Number of Restriction Screening EC-grid- Present Final Municipality Barabgay Mini-grid Potential HH (ECAN Zoning, expansion Electrification Result Name Name Energy Peak # of HH Screening 2015 (MWh) (kW) to electrify On-Going Project ) Screening Method (Base Scenario) ABORLAN Aporawan 833 51.19 30.32 286 Mini-Grid Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Panlaitan 657 39.92 23.64 223 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone BUSUANGA Quezon 331 19.51 11.55 109 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone San Isidro (a) 208 11.81 7.00 66 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone CAGAYAN Santa Cruz (a) 160 8.23 4.88 46 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone -CILLO Talaga 161 8.23 4.88 46 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Bulalacao (b) 705 40.99 24.27 229 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Banuang Daan 174 9.67 5.72 54 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Buena Vista (a) 239 13.78 8.16 77 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Cabugao 549 33.12 19.61 185 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Decabobo 249 14.32 8.48 80 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone CORON Lajala 454 25.96 15.37 145 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Malawig 180 10.02 5.94 56 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Marcilla 318 18.62 11.02 104 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone San Jose (a) 301 17.54 10.39 98 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Tara 358 21.12 12.51 118 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone CUYO Manamoc 382 19.15 11.34 107 Stand-Alone Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Magsaysay (b) 313 18.44 10.92 103 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Bacao 350 19.15 11.34 107 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Bohol 347 15.39 9.12 86 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Santa Teresita* 534 28.82 17.07 161 Stand-Alone Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Calasag 50 1.97 1.17 11 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone DUMARAN Catep 154 8.41 4.98 47 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Culacian (a) 167 7.7 4.56 43 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Danleg 448 25.24 14.95 141 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Dumaran (Pob)* 407 21.84 12.93 122 Stand-Alone Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Itangil 510 30.79 18.23 172 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone EL NIDO Aberawan 356 16.11 9.54 90 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone (BACUIT) Bagong Bayan (a) 328 14.32 8.48 80 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Barangonan (Ilog) 220 12.53 7.42 70 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Cabunlawan 190 10.74 6.36 60 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Calibangbangan 242 13.96 8.27 78 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Decabaitot 144 7.7 4.56 43 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone LINAPACAN Maroyogroyog 390 23.27 13.78 130 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone New Culaylayan 252 14.5 8.59 81 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Pical 344 20.23 11.98 113 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone San Nicolas (b) 232 13.25 7.84 74 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone PUERTO PRINCESA Babuyan 695 37.23 22.05 208 Grid-Expansion Stand-Alone Grid-Expansion CITY (CAPITAL) Napsan 804 49.4 29.26 276 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone QUEZON Berong 492 29.89 17.70 167 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone SAN Port Barton* 1141 65.87 39.01 368 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Mini-Grid VICENTE Santo Nino (c) 237 11.64 6.89 65 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Banbanan 421 23.63 13.99 132 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Beton 322 17.36 10.28 97 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Busy Bees 236 13.6 8.06 76 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Calawag 1060 65.16 38.58 364 Mini-Grid Stand-Alone Stand-Alone TAYTAY Casian 617 35.8 21.20 200 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Pularaquen (Canique) 393 23.45 13.89 131 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Cataban 228 13.07 7.74 73 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Debangan 296 15.75 9.33 88 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Liminangcong 1108 50.66 30.00 283 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Mini-Grid KALAYAAN Pag-asa (Pob) 14 0.36 0.21 2 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Galoc 301 17.54 10.39 98 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone CULION Luac 690 42.07 24.91 235 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Candawaga 2845 177.39 105.05 991 UNDP(Stand-Alone) Stand-Alone Punta Baja 4674 275.84 1541 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Mini-Grid RIZAL 163.35 Taburi 1504 92.36 54.70 516 Mini-Grid Stand-Alone Stand-Alone (MARCOS) Bunog 1170 71.42 42.29 399 Mini-Grid Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Campung-ulay 1330 82.34 48.76 460 Mini-Grid Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Grid-Expansion 1 Mini-Grid 6 Stand-Alone 52 Total 59

(2) Reliability-oriented scenario (utilization of EC-grid extension) EC-grid extension is selected for 56 barangays, the number is about 9 times that of the base scenario. On the other hand, the number of barangays electrified by a mini-grid system and a stand-alone system decreased to 15 barangays for a mini-grid and 94 barangays for a stand-alone system due to the increase in the number of barangays electrified by EC-grid extension. As for the upgrading of the electrification method, in this scenario EC-grid extension is selected for 5 barangays electrified previously as of the end of December in 2003. Total investment cost up to 2006 is estimated to be 427.3 million pesos, which is more than double that of the base scenario.

5-35 Table 5.4.13 Barangay Electrification Plan (Reliability-Oriented Scenario) No. of Barangay Investment Cost (million Php) Electrification Year Year Method Sub Total Sub Total 2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 2006

EC-grid extension 56 21 17 18 **321.1 **112.1 **111.5 **97.5

Mini-grid 15 0 0 15 73.3 0 0 73.3

Stand-alone 94 40 40 14 32.9 14.0 14.0 4.9

Total *165 61 57 47 427.3 126.1 125.5 175.7 * No. of Barangays exceeds 160 because it includes grade-up electrification ** Includes countermeasure cost for voltage drops caused from EC-grid distribution line expansion (refer to Section 5.4.4)

Table 5.4.14 Number of Barangays Electrified (Reliability-Oriented Scenario) Electrification Electrification Electrification Number of Barangay Status Method Level As of the end of 2003 2015 LEVEL III 44 44 LEVEL II 111 167 EC-grid extension LEVEL I 57 57 Sub Total ( 212) ( 268) LEVEL II 1 21 Electrified Mini-grid LEVEL I 5 0 Sub Total ( 6) ( 21) LEVEL II 6 142 Stand-alone LEVEL I 47 0 Sub Total ( 53) ( 142) Total ( 271) ( 431) Un-electrified ( 160) ( 0) Grand Total 431 431

Table 5.4.15 Transitin of Number of Households Electrified (Reliability-Oriented Scenario) As of the end of 2003 2015 Electrification Electrification Number of Number of Status Method Share in Share in Household Electrified Bgy. Household Electrified Bgy. EC-Grid extension 54,416 95.6 % 98,927 67.2 % Mini-Grid 870 1.5 % 8,289 5.7 ％ Electrified Stand-Alone 1,638 2.9% 39,907 27.1 ％ Total ( 56,924) (100%) (147,123) (100%) Number of Households in Palawan (167,391) (262,303) Household Electrification 34.0％ 56.1% Ratio in Palawan

5-36 Table 5.4.16 List of Barangays Electrified by EC-grid Extension (Reliability-Oriented Scenario) Current Electrification Level Investment Cost Barangay Municipality Source Barangay (Method) (million Php)* Villa Libertad El Nido Un-electrified Poblacion 5.0 Pasadena Un-electrified Villa Libertad 7.4 Barotuan Un-electrified Pasadena 7.1 Bucana Un-electrified Barotuan 5.5 Teneguiban Un-electrified Bucana 9.3 San Fernando Un-electrified Teneguiban 8.3 Sibartan Un-electrified San Fernando 4.8 New Guinro Taytay Un-electrified Bato 6.6 Old Guinro Un-electrified New Guinro 4.2 Libertad Un-electrified Abongan 5.3 Paglaum Un-electrified Bato 5.8 Talog Un-electrified Paglaum 3.6 Calawag LEVEL I (Stand-alone) Paglaum 8.7 San Nicolas Roxas Un-electrified Minara 5.1 Sandoval Un-electrified San Nicolas 6.9 Iraan Un-electrified Sandoval 5.5 Dumarao Un-electrified Iraan 3.6 Mendoza Un-electrified Iraan 10.7 Tumarbong Un-electrified Mendoza 7.6 San Isidro Un-electrified Mendoza 8.2 Caramay Un-electrified Magara 7.0 Salvacion Un-electrified Caramay 4.0 Rizal Un-electrified Salvacion 4.0 NicanorZabala Un-electrified Caramay 10.7 San Miguel Un-electrified Nicanor Zabara 5.3 Babuyan Puerto Princesa LEVEL I (Stand-alone) Maoyon 3.6 San Rafael Un-electrified Babuyan 4.8 Tanabag Un-electrified San Rafael 2.8 Conception Un-electrified Tanabag 5.3 Binduyan Un-electrified Conception 4.7 Langogan Un-electrified Binduyan 10.2 Bahile Un-electrified Salvacion 4.9 Macarascas Un-electrified Bahile 1.1 Sagpangan Abolran Un-electrified Iraan 2.9 Pulot Interior Sofronio Espanola Un-electrified Pulot Center 1.6 Labog Un-electrified Panitian 6.0 Punang Un-electrified Labog 9.4 Iraray Un-electrified Punang 4.2 Malatgao Quezon Un-electrified Panitian 3.6 Kalatagbak Un-electrified Pinaglabanan 8.7 Sto. Nino San Vicente LEVEL I (Stand-alone) Alemanguan 2.0 Imulnod Brookes Point Un-electrified Mainit 2.0 Malihud Bataraza Un-electrified Bono Bono 4.0 Bulalacao Un-electrified Malihud 3.9 Tarusan Un-electrified Bulalacao 3.9 Culandanum Un-electrified Tarusan 12.2 Sandoval Un-electrified Tarusan 3.5 Ocayan Un-electrified Sandoval 4.5 Rio Tuba Bataraza Un-electrified Ocayan 6.4 Taratak Un-electrified Rio Tuba 9.2 Sumbiling Un-electrified Taratak 3.0 Iwahig Un-electrified Sandoval 5.9 Igang Igang Un-electrified Iwahig 8.4 Sarong Un-electrified Igang Igang 7.4 Marcilla Coron LEVEL I (Stand-alone) Borac 5.9 San Jose LEVEL I (Stand-alone) Decalachao 4.4 Total 320.6 *Including the cost of secondary distribution lines in the center of the barangay (refer to Section 5.4.4)

5-37 Table 5.4.17 List of Barangays Electrified by Mini-grid System (Reliability-Oriented Scenario) Demand of Type of Investment Cost Barangay Municipality Capacity Target HH System (million Php)* Algeciras AGUTAYA 75.4 kW Diesel 87 kW 3.7 Conception (a) 54.8 kW Diesel 63 kW 3.2 Bancalaan BALABAC 71.4 kW Diesel 87 kW 4.6 Mangsee 56.3 kW Diesel 63 kW 4.1 Cabayugan PUERTO PRINCESA 30.5 kW Diesel 34 kW 3.4 Aramaywan (b) QUEZON 30.4 kW Diesel 34 kW 5.2 Isugud 33.7 kW Diesel 34 kW 4.0 Quinlogan 41.6 kW Diesel 50 kW 4.5 Caruray SAN VICENTE 35.0 kW Diesel 50 kW 4.4 Canipaan RIZAL 44.5 kW Diesel 50 kW 4.7 Culacian (b) 34.9 kW Diesel 50 kW 3.0 Iraan (b) 106.7 kW Diesel 108 kW 9.3 Latud 30.2 kW Diesel 34 kW 6.5 Panalingaan 64.8 kW Diesel 87 kW 5.8 Ransang 75.8 kW Diesel 87 kW 6.9 Total 73.3 *Including the cost of secondary distribution lines in the center of the barangay (refer to Section 5.4.4)

5-38 Table 5.4.18 Results of Screening (Reliability-Oriented Scenario) (Un-electrified Barangays: 160 Bgys.) Potential Demand (6-hours, II) Number of Restriction Screening EC-grid- Present Final Municipality Barabgay Mini-grid Potential HH (ECAN Zoning, expansion Electrification Result Name Name Energy Peak # of HH Screening 2015 (MWh) (kW) to electrify On-Going Project ) Screening Method (Reliability Scenario) Culandanum (a) 256 16.11 9.54 90 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone ABORLAN Sagpangan 470 29.54 17.49 165 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Algeciras 2031 127.27 75.37 711 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Conception (a) 1477 92.54 54.80 517 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Diit 752 47.08 27.88 263 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone AGUTAYA Maracanao 99 6.27 3.71 35 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Matarawis 88 5.55 3.29 31 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Villafria 348 21.84 12.93 122 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Villasol 524 32.76 19.40 183 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Balogo 105 6.62 3.92 37 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Dagman 174 10.92 6.47 61 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Dalayawon 87 5.37 3.18 30 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Lumacad 112 6.98 4.13 39 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Madoldolon 95 5.91 3.50 33 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone ARACELI Mauringuen 158 9.85 5.83 55 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Osmena (a) 158 9.85 5.83 55 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone San Jose De Oro 59 3.76 2.23 21 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Santo Nino (a) 86 5.37 3.18 30 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Taloto 113 7.16 4.24 40 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Agutayan 177 11.1 6.57 62 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Bancalaan 1926 120.65 71.44 674 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Bugsuk (New Cagayancillo) 280 17.54 10.39 98 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Catagupan 445 27.92 16.54 156 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Indalawan 271 17.01 10.07 95 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Malaking Ilog 217 13.6 8.06 76 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Mangsee 1517 95.05 56.29 531 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid BALABAC Melville 280 17.54 10.39 98 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Pandanan 178 11.1 6.57 62 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Pasig 122 7.7 4.56 43 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Rabor 136 8.59 5.09 48 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Ramos 429 26.85 15.90 150 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Salang 651 40.81 24.17 228 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Sebaring 249 15.57 9.22 87 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Bulalacao (a) 543 34.01 20.14 190 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Buliluyan 408 25.6 15.16 143 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Culandanum (b) 1170 73.39 43.46 410 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Igang igang 412 25.78 15.26 144 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Iwahig 691 43.32 25.65 242 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Malihud 522 32.76 19.40 183 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Malitub 192 11.99 7.10 67 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Ocayan 559 35.08 20.78 196 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Puring 275 17.18 10.18 96 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone BATARAZA Rio Tuba 2845 178.28 105.58 996 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Sandoval (a) 829 51.91 30.74 290 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Sapa 464 29 17.17 162 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Sarong 607 37.95 22.47 212 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Sumbiling 824 51.55 30.53 288 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Tabud 307 19.15 11.34 107 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Tagnato 217 13.6 8.06 76 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Tagolango 226 14.14 8.37 79 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Taratak 574 35.98 21.31 201 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Tarusan 1093 68.56 40.60 383 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion BROOKE'S P. Imulnod 480 30.07 17.81 168 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Burabod 101 6.27 3.71 35 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Cheey 551 34.55 20.46 193 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone BUSUANGA Halsey 136 8.59 5.09 48 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Maglalambay 246 15.39 9.12 86 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Magsaysay (a) 246 15.39 9.12 86 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone CAGAYAN Mampio 97 6.09 3.60 34 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone -CILLO Nusa 87 5.37 3.18 30 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Caponayan 271 17.01 10.07 95 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone CUYO Lubid 201 12.53 7.42 70 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Capayas 353 22.2 13.14 124 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Ilian 416 26.13 15.48 146 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone San Juan (b) 245 15.39 9.12 86 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone DUMARAN Santa Maria 216 13.6 8.06 76 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Santo Tomas 327 20.41 12.08 114 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Tanatanaon 409 25.6 15.16 143 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Barotuan 635 39.74 23.53 222 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Bebeladan 572 35.8 21.20 200 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Bucana 1378 86.28 51.09 482 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Mabini (b) 331 20.76 12.30 116 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Manlag 510 32.04 18.97 179 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone EL NIDO New Ibajay 769 48.15 28.51 269 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone (BACUIT) Pasadena 430 27.03 16.01 151 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion San Fernando 525 32.94 19.50 184 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Sibartan 440 27.57 16.32 154 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Teneguiban 1015 63.55 37.63 355 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Villa Libertad 434 27.21 16.11 152 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Villa Paz 306 19.15 11.34 107 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone LINAPACAN Nangalao 428 26.85 15.90 150 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Alcoba 72 4.48 2.65 25 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone MAGSAYSAY Canipo 199 12.53 7.42 70 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Cocoro 176 11.1 6.57 62 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone

5-39 Table 5.4.18 Results of Screening (Reliability-Oriented Scenario) (Continued) Potential Demand (6-hours, II) Number of Restriction Screening EC-grid- Present Final Municipality Barabgay Mini-grid Potential HH (ECAN Zoning, expansion Electrification Result Name Name Energy Peak # of HH Screening 2015 (MWh) (kW) to electrify On-Going Project ) Screening Method (Reliability Scenario) Bagong Bayan (b) 247 15.39 9.12 86 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Bahile 756 47.44 28.09 265 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Binduyan 315 19.69 11.66 110 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Buena Vista (b) 285 17.9 10.60 100 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Cabayugan 822 51.55 30.53 288 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Conception (c) 404 25.24 14.95 141 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion PUERTO PRINCESA Langogan 613 38.49 22.79 215 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion CITY (CAPITAL) Macarascas 516 32.4 19.19 181 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Marufinas 194 12.17 7.21 68 ECAN(Stand-Alone) Stand-Alone New Panggangan 216 13.6 8.06 76 ECAN(Stand-Alone) Stand-Alone San Rafael (b) 608 38.13 22.58 213 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Simpocan 358 22.38 13.25 125 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Tagabinit 451 28.28 16.75 158 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Tanabag 174 10.92 6.47 61 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Aramaywan (b) 819 51.37 30.42 287 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Kalatagbak 420 26.31 15.58 147 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Calumpang 514 32.22 19.08 180 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Isugod 908 56.92 33.71 318 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid QUEZON Maasin (b) 454 28.46 16.85 159 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Malatgao (b) 622 39.02 23.11 218 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Quinlogan 1121 70.17 41.55 392 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Sowangan 529 33.12 19.61 185 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Tagusao 726 45.47 26.92 254 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Antonino 189 11.81 7.00 66 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Bagong Bayan (c) 194 12.17 7.21 68 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Barangay V (Pob) (Porao Is) 4 0.18 0.11 1 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Barangay VI (Pob) (Johnson) 127 7.88 4.66 44 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Caramay 540 33.83 20.03 189 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Dumarao 525 32.94 19.50 184 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Santo Tomas (Iraan) 170 10.74 6.36 60 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Jolo 180 11.28 6.68 63 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Mendoza 307 19.15 11.34 107 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion ROXAS Nicanor Zabara 372 23.27 13.78 130 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Rizal (b) 177 11.1 6.57 62 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Salvacion (b) 148 9.31 5.51 52 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion San Isidro (c) 121 7.52 4.45 42 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion San Miguel (b) 209 13.07 7.74 73 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion San Nicolas (c) 158 9.85 5.83 55 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Sandoval (c) 368 23.09 13.67 129 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Taradungan 221 13.78 8.16 77 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Tinitian 322 20.23 11.98 113 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Tumarabong 717 44.93 26.61 251 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Binga 356 22.38 13.25 125 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone SAN Caruray 942 59.07 34.98 330 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid VICENTE Kemdeng 185 11.64 6.89 65 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone New Canipo 281 17.54 10.39 98 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Alacalian 452 28.28 16.75 158 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Bantulan 458 28.64 16.96 160 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Baras 110 6.98 4.13 39 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Batas 260 16.29 9.65 91 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Depla 255 15.93 9.43 89 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Libertad 437 27.39 16.22 153 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Meytegued 248 15.57 9.22 87 0 Minapla 190 11.99 7.10 67 ECAN(Stand-Alone) Stand-Alone New Guinlo 845 52.98 31.38 296 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion TAYTAY Old Guinlo 182 11.46 6.78 64 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Paglaum 458 28.64 16.96 160 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Paly (Paly Is) 369 23.09 13.67 129 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Pamantolon 300 18.8 11.13 105 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Pancol 541 33.83 20.03 189 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone San Jose (d) 416 26.13 15.48 146 ECAN(Stand-Alone) Stand-Alone Sandoval (d) 270 17.01 10.07 95 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Silanga 216 13.6 8.06 76 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Talog 240 15.04 8.90 84 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Tumbod 370 23.27 13.78 130 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone CULION Binudac 453 28.46 16.85 159 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Canipaan 1199 75.18 44.52 420 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Culacian (b) 939 58.89 34.87 329 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid RIZAL Iraan (b) 2877 180.25 106.74 1007 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid (MARCOS) Latud 815 51.02 30.21 285 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Panalingaan 1746 109.37 64.77 611 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Ransang 2042 127.99 75.79 715 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Iraray 703 44.03 26.08 246 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion SOFRONIO Labog 957 59.97 35.51 335 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion ESPANOLA Pulot Interior (Pulot II) 586 36.7 21.73 205 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Punang 732 45.82 27.14 256 Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion Grid-Expansion 51 Mini-Grid 15 Stand-Alone 93 Total 159

5-40 Table 5.4.18 Results of Screening (Reliability-Oriented Scenario) (Continued) (Barangays electrified by SHS, BCS, BAPA, LGU.and others: 59 Bgys.) Potential Demand (6-hours, II) Number of Restriction Screening EC-grid- Present Final Municipality Barabgay Mini-grid Potential HH (ECAN Zoning, expansion Electrification Result Name Name Energy Peak # of HH Screening 2015 (MWh) (kW) to electrify On-Going Project ) Screening Method (Reliability Scenario) ABORLAN Aporawan 833 51.19 30.32 286 Mini-Grid Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Panlaitan 657 39.92 23.64 223 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone BUSUANGA Quezon 331 19.51 11.55 109 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone San Isidro (a) 208 11.81 7.00 66 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone CAGAYAN Santa Cruz (a) 160 8.23 4.88 46 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone -CILLO Talaga 161 8.23 4.88 46 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Bulalacao (b) 705 40.99 24.27 229 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Banuang Daan 174 9.67 5.72 54 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Buena Vista (a) 239 13.78 8.16 77 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Cabugao 549 33.12 19.61 185 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Decabobo 249 14.32 8.48 80 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone CORON Lajala 454 25.96 15.37 145 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Malawig 180 10.02 5.94 56 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Marcilla 318 18.62 11.02 104 Grid-Expansion Stand-Alone Grid-Expansion San Jose (a) 301 17.54 10.39 98 Grid-Expansion Stand-Alone Grid-Expansion Tara 358 21.12 12.51 118 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone CUYO Manamoc 382 19.15 11.34 107 Stand-Alone Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Magsaysay (b) 313 18.44 10.92 103 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Bacao 350 19.15 11.34 107 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Bohol 347 15.39 9.12 86 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Santa Teresita* 534 28.82 17.07 161 Stand-Alone Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Calasag 50 1.97 1.17 11 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone DUMARAN Catep 154 8.41 4.98 47 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Culacian (a) 167 7.7 4.56 43 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Danleg 448 25.24 14.95 141 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Dumaran (Pob)* 407 21.84 12.93 122 Stand-Alone Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Itangil 510 30.79 18.23 172 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone EL NIDO Aberawan 356 16.11 9.54 90 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone (BACUIT) Bagong Bayan (a) 328 14.32 8.48 80 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Barangonan (Ilog) 220 12.53 7.42 70 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Cabunlawan 190 10.74 6.36 60 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Calibangbangan 242 13.96 8.27 78 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Decabaitot 144 7.7 4.56 43 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone LINAPACAN Maroyogroyog 390 23.27 13.78 130 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone New Culaylayan 252 14.5 8.59 81 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Pical 344 20.23 11.98 113 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone San Nicolas (b) 232 13.25 7.84 74 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone PUERTO PRINCESA Babuyan 695 37.23 22.05 208 Grid-Expansion Stand-Alone Grid-Expansion CITY (CAPITAL) Napsan 804 49.4 29.26 276 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone QUEZON Berong 492 29.89 17.70 167 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone SAN Port Barton* 1141 65.87 39.01 368 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Mini-Grid VICENTE Santo Nino (c) 237 11.64 6.89 65 Grid-Expansion Stand-Alone Grid-Expansion Banbanan 421 23.63 13.99 132 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Beton 322 17.36 10.28 97 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Busy Bees 236 13.6 8.06 76 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Calawag 1060 65.16 38.58 364 Grid-Expansion Stand-Alone Grid-Expansion TAYTAY Casian 617 35.8 21.20 200 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Pularaquen (Canique) 393 23.45 13.89 131 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Cataban 228 13.07 7.74 73 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Debangan 296 15.75 9.33 88 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Liminangcong 1108 50.66 30.00 283 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Mini-Grid KALAYAAN Pag-asa (Pob) 14 0.36 0.21 2 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Galoc 301 17.54 10.39 98 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone CULION Luac 690 42.07 24.91 235 Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Candawaga 2845 177.39 105.05 991 UNDP(Stand-Alone) Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Punta Baja 4674 275.84 1541 Mini-Grid Mini-Grid Mini-Grid RIZAL 163.35 Taburi 1504 92.36 54.70 516 Mini-Grid Stand-Alone Stand-Alone (MARCOS) Bunog 1170 71.42 42.29 399 Mini-Grid Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Campung-ulay 1330 82.34 48.76 460 Mini-Grid Stand-Alone Stand-Alone Grid-Expansion 5 Mini-Grid 6 Stand-Alone 48 Total 59

5-41 (3) Environment-friendly scenario (utilization of hydropower resources) The selected electrification methods are the same as those in the Base Scenario. This scenario gives priority to the development of hydropower. Therefore, micro-hydropower for a mini-grid system is selected for 1 barangay (Bgy. Aramaywan in Mun. QUEZON). Total investment cost up to 2006 is estimated to be 202.4 million pesos.

Table 5.4.19 Barangay Electrification Plan (Environment-Friendly Scenario) No. of Barangay Investment Cost (million Php) Electrification Year Year Method Sub Total Sub Total 2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 2006

EC-grid extension 6 3 2 1 **22.1 **9.5 **8.7 **3.9

Mini-grid 23 0 0 23 134.1 0 0 134.1

Stand-alone 132 60 60 12 46.2 21.0 21.0 4.2

Total *161 63 62 36 202.4 30.5 29.7 142.2 * No. of Barangays exceeds 160 because it includes grade-up electrification ** Includes countermeasure cost for voltage drops caused by EC-grid distribution line expansion (refer to Section 5.4.4)

Table 5.4.20 List of Barangays Electrified by Mini-grid System (Environment-Friendly Scenario) Demand of Type of Investment Cost Barangay Municipality Capacity Target HH System (million Php)* Algeciras AGUTAYA 75.4 kW Diesel 87 kW 3.7 Conception (a) 54.8 kW Diesel 63 kW 3.2 Bancalaan BALABAC 71.4 kW Diesel 87 kW 4.6 Mangsee 56.3 kW Diesel 63 kW 4.1 Culandanum (b) BATARAZA 43.5 kW Diesel 50 kW 4.3 Rio Tuba 105.6 kW Diesel 108 kW 7.5 Sandoval (a) 30.7 kW Diesel 34 kW 5.2 Sumbiling 30.5 kW Diesel 34 kW 3.6 Bucana EL NIDO 51.2 kW Diesel 63 kW 5.3 Teneguiban 37.6 kW Diesel 50 kW 6.7 Cabayugan PUERTO PRINCESA 30.5 kW Diesel 34 kW 3.4 Aramaywan (b) QUEZON 30.4 kW Micro Hydro 39 kW 24.3 Isugud 33.7 kW Diesel 34 kW 4.0 Quinlogan 41.6 kW Diesel 50 kW 4.5 Caruray SAN VICENTE 35.0 kW Diesel 50 kW 4.4 New Guinlo TAYTAY 31.4 kW Diesel 34 kW 4.3 Canipaan RIZAL 44.5 kW Diesel 50 kW 4.7 Culacian (b) 34.9 kW Diesel 50 kW 3.0 Iraan (b) 106.7 kW Diesel 108 kW 9.3 Latud 30.2 kW Diesel 34 kW 6.5 Panalingaan 64.8 kW Diesel 87 kW 5.8 Ransang 75.8 kW Diesel 87 kW 6.9 Labog SOFRONO ESPANOLA 35.5 kW Diesel 50 kW 5.0 Total 134.1 *Including the cost of secondary distribution lines in the center of the barangay (refer to Section 5.4.4)

5-42 5.4.4 Check of Selected EC-Grid Extension and Mini-Grid System

(1) Supply voltage check Voltage drops in each distribution feeder are calculated based on the estimated demand at 2015. There is no definite criterion for 13.2kV distribution line voltage drop in PALECO. In this study, a voltage drop criterion is set to 5% of nominal voltage. If it exceeds 5%, supply voltage for the tail end low voltage customer is less than 90% of nominal voltage. As impedances are used for the calculation of each feeder’s voltage drops, and not the value of NEA BULLETIN DX3430 and Table 3.4.2 of this report, and so the value shown in the Table 5.4.21 is adopted so that a power-factor may be reflected. Table 5.4.21 Impedance Conductor Size Resistance Reactance In the voltage calculations of PALECO’s feeder, ACSR R(Ohms/km) X(Ohms/km) it is considered that the main distribution lines are AWG 2/0 0.418 0.448 AWG2/0. But in the calculation of BISELCO’s AWG 1/0 0.524 0.457 AWG #2 0.834 0.474 feeder, actual sizes obtained from their line maps are used. The demand is computed in proportion to the number of households in 2015, and measurement values, which PALECO holds, are rectified. And information on new big customers is also considered. The power factor is set up to 90%. The results of calculation are shown in Table 5.4.22. Calculation data sheets are shown in Tables 5.4.23 to 5.4.27.

Table 5.4.22 Results of Calculation on Voltage Drop Power/Sub Feeder Reliability-Oriented Scenario Base Scenario Station /Circuit 2015 2006 2015 2006 Exceed 5% Exceed 5% Exceed 5% Puerto Princesa San Jose -- at Bacungan at Bacungan at Bacungan City Iwahig OK ------Exceed 5% Exceed 5% Aborlan OK OK at Isaub at Kamuning Narra Exceed 5% Exceed 5% Quezon -- -- at Calategas at Ipilan To East OK ------Brooke’s Point Exceed 5% Exceed 5% Bataraza OK -- at Bono Bono at Ocayan Coron Busuanga OK ------

The feeder that has more than a 5% voltage drop needs a voltage regulator or capacitor on the feeder to compensate voltage. The Narra-Aborlan feeder will have a voltage drop exceeding 5% at Barangay Kamuning. However, since the Puerto Princesa-Iwahig feeder has a margin in its voltage drop, barangays Kamuning, Inagawan and Inagawan Sub-colony will be able to be supplied by the Iwahig feeder. The Narra substation will not have enough capacity to meet demand in the near future. Therefore, NPC-SPUG is planning the construction of a new substation under the way of the backbone transmission line near Barangay Abo-Abo. After this construction, the Narra-Quezon feeder will be divided into two feeders.

5-43

Table 5.4.23 Voltage Drop of Aborlan Circuit in 2015 Reliablity Oriented Case 2015 Narra Aborlan Back Impedance 12.16

Brangay Section Cumulative Cone. Demand Big Cstmr. Current Cum. Cur. Section Cumulative Voltage Drop(V) Voltage DropoShort Rati Cur from to (km) (km) HH (kW) (kW) (A) (A) R(Ohm) X(Ohm) R(Ohm) X(Ohm) Section Cumula (V) (%) (kA) Substation Poblacion 0.00 0.00 3,710 360 15.7 62.1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 13,200 0.0 0.63 Antipuluan 4.50 4.50 624 61 2.6 39.9 1.881 2.016 1.881 2.016 178 178 13,022 1.3 0.53 El Vita 1.20 5.70 58 6 0.2 37.2 0.502 0.538 2.383 2.554 44 222 12,978 1.7 0.51 Taretien 1.25 6.95 111 11 0.5 37.0 0.523 0.560 2.905 3.114 46 268 12,932 2.0 0.49 Malatgao 2.00 8.95 158 15 0.7 36.5 0.836 0.896 3.741 4.010 72 340 12,860 2.6 0.46 T1 3.00 11.95 0 0.0 35.8 3.741 4.010 0 340 12,860 2.6 0.46 Sandoval 1.00 12.95 406 39 1.7 35.6 0.418 0.448 4.159 4.458 35 375 12,825 2.8 0.44 T2 2.00 14.95 0 0.0 32.7 4.159 4.458 0 375 12,825 2.8 0.44 Plandel 2.00 16.95 560 54 2.4 30.8 0.836 0.896 4.995 5.354 61 436 12,764 3.3 0.42 Magsaysay 3.50 20.45 156 15 0.7 26.6 1.463 1.568 6.458 6.922 92 528 12,672 4.00.38 T3 3.50 23.95 0 0.0 25.9 6.458 6.922 0 528 12,672 4.0 0.38 Poblacion(Aborlan) 2.50 26.45 588 57 2.5 25.3 1.045 1.120 7.503 8.042 63 591 12,609 4.5 0.35 Mabini 0.75 27.20 81 8 0.3 21.2 0.314 0.336 7.817 8.378 16 607 12,593 4.6 0.35 San Juan 0.75 27.95 677 66 280 15.1 20.9 0.314 0.336 8.130 8.714 15 622 12,578 4.7 0.34 Iraan 3.25 31.20 145 14 0.6 5.7 1.359 1.456 9.489 10.170 18 641 12,559 4.9 0.31 Isaub 4.50 35.70 282 27 1.2 4.4 1.881 2.016 11.370 12.186 20 660 12,540 5.0 0.28 Kamuning 5.00 40.70 228 22 1.0 3.2 2.090 2.240 13.460 14.426 16 676 12,524 5.1 0.26 Inagawan 2.50 43.20 404 39 1.7 2.3 1.045 1.120 14.505 15.546 6 682 12,518 5.2 0.24 Inagawan Subcolony 0.10 43.30 61 6 0.3 0.5 0.042 0.045 14.546 15.590 0 682 12,518 5.2 0.24 T1 Tinagong Dagat 3.75 15.70 68 7 0.3 0.3 1.568 1.680 5.309 5.690 1 341 12,859 2.6 0.41 5-44 Sandoval Bagong Sikat 3.75 16.70 264 26 1.1 1.1 1.568 1.680 5.727 6.138 4 379 12,821 2.9 0.40 T2 Estrella Village 4.25 19.20 92 9 0.4 1.5 1.777 1.904 5.936 6.362 6 382 12,818 2.9 0.39 Dumanguena 3.00 22.20 269 26 1.1 1.1 1.254 1.344 7.190 7.706 3 385 12,815 2.9 0.36 Plandel Jose Rizal 4.25 21.20 241 23 1.0 1.2 1.777 1.904 6.772 7.258 5 441 12,759 3.3 0.37 Apoc Apoc 3.50 24.70 46 4 0.2 0.2 1.463 1.568 8.235 8.826 1 442 12,758 3.3 0.34 Plandel Tigman 4.00 20.95 163 16 0.7 0.7 1.672 1.792 6.667 7.146 3 439 12,761 3.3 0.37 T3 Tagpait 1.50 25.45 112 11 0.5 0.5 0.627 0.672 7.085 7.594 1 529 12,671 4.0 0.36 T3 Gogognan 1.75 25.70 17 2 0.1 0.1 0.732 0.784 7.190 7.706 0 528 12,672 4.0 0.36 Poblacion(Aborl Mabini 1.00 27.45 81 8 0.3 1.7 0.418 0.448 7.921 8.490 2 593 12,607 4.5 0.34 Magbabadil 4.00 31.45 155 15 0.7 1.3 1.672 1.792 9.593 10.282 5 598 12,602 4.50.31 Cabigaan 3.00 34.45 92 9 0.4 0.4 1.254 1.344 10.847 11.626 1 599 12,601 4.5 0.29 Magbabadil Barake 2.50 33.95 61 6 0.3 0.3 1.045 1.120 10.638 11.402 1 598 12,602 4.5 0.29 Iraan Sagpangan 4.75 35.95 165 16 0.7 0.7 1.986 2.128 11.474 12.298 3 644 12,556 4.9 0.28 Poblacion(Narr

aPanacan 3.00 3.00 1521 148 6.5 6.5 1.254 1.344 1.254 1.344 19 19 13,181 0.1 0.56 T2 Apo Aporawan 3.50 18.45 80 8 0.3 0.3 1.463 1.568 5.622 6.026 1 376 12,824 2.9 0.40

* Agricultire University--San Juan

5-44 Table 5.4.24 Voltage Drop of Bataraza Circuit in 2015 Reliability Oriented Case 2015 Brooke's Point Bataraza Circuit 13.86

Brangay Section Cumulativ e Cone. Demand Current Cum. Cur. Section Cumulative Voltage Drop(V) Voltage Drop Rati oShort Cir from to (km) (km) HH (kW) (A) (A) R(Ohm) X(Ohm) R(Ohm) X(Ohm) Section Cumula (V) (%) (A) Substation Tub Tub 4.30 4.30 60 6 0.3 23.3 1.797 1.926 1.797 1.926 99 99 13,101 0.7 0.48 Oring Oring 2.40 6.70 23 2 0.1 23.0 1.003 1.075 2.801 3.002 55 154 13,046 1.2 0.45 Amas 1.50 8.20 147 14 0.6 22.9 0.627 0.672 3.428 3.674 34 188 13,012 1.4 0.43 Saraza 1.90 10.10 41 4 0.2 22.3 0.794 0.851 4.222 4.525 42 230 12,970 1.7 0.40 Samarinana 2.60 12.70 108 10 0.5 22.1 1.087 1.165 5.309 5.690 57 286 12,914 2.2 0.38 Salogon 4.10 16.80 116 11 0.5 21.6 1.714 1.837 7.022 7.526 88 374 12,826 2.8 0.34 Malis 4.50 21.30 64 6 0.3 21.2 1.881 2.016 8.903 9.542 94 468 12,732 3.5 0.30 Inogbong 2.20 23.50 56 5 0.2 20.9 0.920 0.986 9.823 10.528 45 514 12,686 3.9 0.29 Bataraza(Maran 3.90 27.40 840 81 3.6 20.6 1.630 1.747 11.453 12.275 80 594 12,606 4.5 0.27 Bono Bono 4.70 32.10 286 28 1.2 17.1 1.965 2.106 13.418 14.381 79 673 12,527 5.1 0.24 Malihud 4.00 36.10 183 18 0.8 15.9 1.672 1.792 15.090 16.173 63 736 12,464 5.6 0.23 Bulalacao 4.00 40.10 191 19 0.8 15.1 1.672 1.792 16.762 17.965 60 796 12,404 6.0 0.21 Tarusan 4.00 44.10 383 37 1.6 14.3 1.672 1.792 18.434 19.757 57 852 12,348 6.5 0.20 T1 5.80 49.90 0 0 0.0 12.7 2.424 2.598 20.858 22.355 73 925 12,275 7.0 0.18 Sandoval 4.00 53.90 291 28 1.2 8.4 1.672 1.792 22.530 24.147 33 958 12,242 7.3 0.17 Ocayan 4.20 58.10 196 19 0.8 7.1 1.756 1.882 24.286 26.029 30 988 12,212 7.5 0.16 T2 2.80 60.90 0 0 0.0 6.3 1.170 1.254 25.456 27.283 17 1005 12,195 7.6 0.16 Taratak 10.00 70.90 201 19 0.9 2.1 4.180 4.480 29.636 31.763 21 1026 12,174 7.8 0.14 5-45 Sumbuling 3.00 73.90 289 28 1.2 1.2 1.254 1.344 30.890 33.107 4 1029 12,171 7.8 0.14 T1 Iwahig 6.00 55.90 242 23 1.0 2.5 2.508 2.688 23.366 24.863 15 940 12,260 7.1 0.17 Igang Igang 9.00 62.90 145 14 0.6 1.5 3.762 4.032 27.128 28.895 14 954 12,246 7.2 0.15 Sarong 8.00 66.10 213 21 0.9 0.9 3.344 3.584 30.472 32.479 7 961 12,239 7.3 0.14 T1 Culandanum 6.10 56.00 410 40 1.7 1.7 2.550 2.733 23.408 25.088 11 935 12,265 7.1 0.17 T2 Rio Tuba 5.20 66.10 996 97 4.2 4.2 2.174 2.330 27.630 29.613 22 1027 12,173 7.8 0.15

5-45 Table 5.4.25 Voltage Drop of San Jose Circuit in 2006 BASE CASE 2006 Puerto Princesa SAN JOSE CIRCUIT Back Impedance Brangay Section Cumulative Cone. Demand Big Cstmr. Current Cum. Cur. Section Cumulative Voltage Drop(V) Voltage Drop Ratio from to (km) (km) HH (kW) (kW) (A) (A) R(Ohm) X(Ohm) R(Ohm) X(Ohm) Section Cumula (V) (%) Substation City Centre 1.00 1.00 755 33.0 89.7 0.418 0.448 0.418 0.448 89 8913,1110.7 San Jose 1.00 2.00 1,094 106 4.6 56.7 0.418 0.448 0.418 0.448 56 145 13,055 1.1 Tagburos 3.00 5.00 573 56 2.4 52.0 1.254 1.344 1.672 1.792 155 299 12,901 2.3 Sta. Lourdes 2.50 7.50 422 41 250 12.7 49.6 1.045 1.120 2.717 2.912 123 422 12,778 3.2 Bacungan 10.00 17.50 303 29 750 34.1 36.9 4.180 4.480 6.897 7.392 365 787 12,413 6.0 Sta. Cruz 7.00 24.50 55 5 0.2 2.8 2.926 3.136 9.823 10.528 19 807 12,393 6.1 Salvacion 9.00 33.50 75 7 0.3 2.6 3.762 4.032 13.585 14.560 23 830 12,370 6.3 Manalo 4.50 38.00 134 13 0.6 2.2 1.881 2.016 15.466 16.576 10 840 12,360 6.4 Maruyogon 5.00 43.00 105 10 0.4 1.7 2.090 2.240 17.556 18.816 8 848 12,352 6.4 Lucbuan 2.50 45.50 98 10 0.4 1.2 1.045 1.120 18.601 19.936 3 851 12,349 6.4 Maoyon 3.00 48.50 75 7 0.3 0.8 1.254 1.344 19.855 21.280 2 853 12,347 6.5 Babuyan 3.50 52.00 118 11 0.5 0.5 1.463 1.568 21.318 22.848 2 855 12,345 6.5

* Citra Mina Food Corporation--Bacungan(Day Time Peak 1500kW) * Sanitary Field--Sta. Loudes(Day Time Peak 500kW)

5-46 Table 5.4.26 Voltage Drop of Quezon Circuit in 2006 BASE CASE 2006 Narra Quezon Circuit Back Impedance Brangay Section Cumulative Cone. Demand Big Cstmr. Current Cum. Cur. Section Cumulative Voltage Drop(V) Voltage Drop Ratio from to (km) (km) HH (kW) (kW) (A) (A) R(Ohm) X(Ohm) R(Ohm) X(Ohm) Section Cumula (V) (%) Substation Malinao 4.50 4.50 297 29 1.3 24.1 1.881 2.016 1.881 2.016 107 107 13,093 0.8 Princess 4.50 9.00 637 62 2.7 22.4 1.881 2.016 3.762 4.032 100 207 12,993 1.6 SanIsidro 4.75 13.75 121 12 0.5 19.3 1.986 2.128 5.748 6.160 91 298 12,902 2.3 Calategas 9.25 23.00 386 37 1.6 18.8 3.867 4.144 9.614 10.304 172 470 12,730 3.6 Aramaywan 3.75 26.75 214 21 0.9 17.1 1.568 1.680 11.182 11.984 64 534 12,666 4.0 Tacras 3.75 30.50 112 11 0.5 16.2 1.568 1.680 12.749 13.664 60 594 12,606 4.5 Brirao 3.00 33.50 137 13 0.6 15.8 1.254 1.344 14.003 15.008 47 641 12,559 4.9 T1 3.25 36.75 0 0.0 15.2 1.359 1.456 15.362 16.464 49 689 12,511 5.2 Ipilan 3.00 39.75 43 4 0.2 12.6 1.254 1.344 16.616 17.808 37 727 12,473 5.5 T2 3.50 43.25 0 0.0 12.4 1.463 1.568 18.079 19.376 43 770 12,430 5.8 Pinaglabanan 4.60 47.85 62 6 0.3 12.4 1.923 2.061 20.001 21.437 57 827 12,373 6.3 Quezon Pob. 8.50 56.35 1,577 153 100 11.1 12.2 3.553 3.808 23.554 25.245 102 929 12,271 7.0 T3 7.20 63.55 0 0.0 0.8 3.010 3.226 26.564 28.470 6 935 12,265 7.1 Panitian 2.70 66.25 198 19 0.8 0.8 1.129 1.210 27.692 29.680 2 937 12,263 7.1 T1 AboAbo 0.60 37.35 200 19 0.8 2.6 0.251 0.269 15.612 16.733 2 691 12,509 5.2 Isumbo 1.80 39.15 68 7 0.3 1.7 0.752 0.806 17.368 18.614 3 694 12,506 5.3 Panitian 6.20 45.35 338 33 1.4 1.4 2.592 2.778 20.670 22.154 9 9 13,191 0.1 Malinao Caguisan 3.00 7.50 109 11 0.5 0.5 1.254 1.344 3.135 3.360 1 109 13,0910.8 Princess BatangBatang 3.75 12.75 96 9 0.4 0.4 1.568 1.680 5.330 5.712 2 209 12,991 1.6 Quezon Pob. Tabon 3.00 59.35 61 6 0.3 0.3 1.254 1.344 24.808 26.589 1 930 12,270 7.0

* Ice Plant--Quezon5-46 Poblacion

Table 5.4.27 Voltage Drop of Busuanga Circuit in 2015 Reliability Oriented Case 2015 Coron Busuanga Circuit

Brangay Section Cumulative Cone. Demand Big Cstmr. Current Cum. Cur. Section Cumulative Voltage Drop(V) Voltage Drop Ratio from to (km) (km) HH (kW) (kW) (A) (A) R(Ohm) X(Ohm) R(Ohm) X(Ohm) Section Cumula (V) (%) Substation T1 1.00 1.00 0 0 0.0 10.7 0.524 0.457 0.524 0.457 12 12.39 13,188 0.1 T2 3.00 4.00 0 0 0.0 10.2 1.573 1.371 2.097 1.828 36 47.90 13,152 0.4 Sta. Monica 5.50 9.50 0 0 0.0 5.6 2.884 2.514 4.981 4.342 36 83.44 13,117 0.6 Bintuan 10.00 19.50 61 6 40 2.0 5.6 5.243 4.570 10.224 8.912 65 148.06 13,052 1.1 Sto. Nino 4.00 23.50 35 3 0.1 3.6 3.337 1.896 13.561 10.808 24 171.62 13,028 1.3 Conception 4.00 27.50 164 16 0.7 3.4 3.337 1.896 16.898 12.704 23 194.19 13,006 1.5 Sagrada 2.00 29.50 57 6 0.2 2.7 1.669 0.948 18.567 13.652 9 203.17 12,997 1.5 Kiwit 3.00 32.50 0 0 0.0 2.5 2.503 1.422 21.070 15.074 12 215.43 12,985 1.6 Bugtong 2.00 34.50 58 6 0.2 2.5 1.669 0.948 22.738 16.022 8 223.61 12,976 1.7 Salvacion 4.50 39.00 213 21 0.9 2.2 3.754 2.133 26.493 18.155 17 240.17 12,960 1.8 Old Busanga 4.50 43.50 48 5 0.2 1.3 3.754 2.133 30.247 20.288 10 249.98 12,950 1.9 San Rafael 3.00 46.50 46 4 0.2 1.1 2.503 1.422 32.750 21.710 6 255.51 12,944 1.9 New Busuanga 3.50 50.00 89 9 0.4 0.9 2.920 1.659 35.670 23.369 5 260.83 12,939 2.0 Buluang 2.50 52.50 16 2 0.1 0.5 2.086 1.185 37.756 24.554 2 263.06 12,937 2.0 T1 Barangay 6 3.50 4.50 111 11 0.5 0.5 2.920 1.659 3.444 2.116 3 15.12 13,185 0.1 T2 Guadalupe 3.00 7.00 109 11 0.5 4.6 2.503 1.422 4.600 3.250 23 70.91 13,129 0.5

5-47 San Nicolas 2.00 9.00 117 11 0.5 4.2 1.669 0.948 6.269 4.198 14 84.72 13,115 0.6 Borac 15.00 24.00 148 14 0.6 1.4 12.515 7.110 18.783 11.308 34 119.13 13,081 0.9 Turda 6.50 30.50 67 6 0.3 0.3 5.423 3.081 24.206 14.389 3 122.19 13,078 0.9 Borac Marcilla 4.00 28.00 111 11 0.5 0.5 3.337 1.896 22.120 13.204 3 122.25 13,078 0.9 San Nicolas YKR 10.50 19.50 0 30 1.3 2.3 8.760 4.977 15.029 9.175 40 124.49 13,076 0.9 Dekalachao 6.00 25.50 124 12 0.5 1.0 5.006 2.844 20.035 12.019 10 134.16 13,066 1.0 San Jose 4.50 30.00 105 10 0.4 0.4 3.754 2.133 23.789 14.152 3 137.48 13,063 1.0

5-47

(2) Grid expansion plan

(a) Base scenario Based on the plan of the new substation by NPC-SPUG, and the results of voltage calculation, the distribution line extension plan in the Base scenario is decided as follows.

Sta. Lourdes Sta. Bacungan Salvacion Tagburos San Jose San Sta. Cruz

Inogbong Samarinana Oring Oring Oring Bono Bono Bataraza Tub Tub Tub Salogon Saraza Amas Malis

Figure 5.4.2 EC-Grid Expansion Plan (Base Scenario)

The expense of a project is calculated using the distance of the required distribution line investigated by ECs, and the unit price mentioned in Table 3.4.9.

Table 5.4.28 Project Cost of EC-Grid Extension (Base Scenario) KMS. Of Line Cost Year Municipality Barangay Tapping Point 3Ph 1Ph OS UB Php‘000 (Voltage Regulator) - - - - 264 Puerto Princesa Babuyan Maoyon 3.50 0.75 1.00 3.00 3,633 2004 Brooke’s Point Imulnod Minit 2.00 1.00 1.00 2,004 Quezon Malatgao Panitian 3.00 1.00 1.75 4.00 3,613 Malihud Bono Bono 5.00 0.75 1.00 2.00 4,807 2005 Bataraza Bulalacao Malihud 4.00 0.50 1.00 2.00 3,890 2006 Bataraza Tarusan Bulalacao 4.00 0.50 0.75 3.00 3,864 Total 21.5 3.5 6.5 15.0 22,075

5-48 (b) Reliability-oriented scenario In this scenario, a voltage regulator is needed also for Bataraza. A voltage drop will not become a problem if there is a new substation for supply in the Bataraza area. There is actually a plan for a new substation in the area, since transmission line construction is required. It may take a long time to complete, so the installation of a voltage regulator is considered as measure for the time being.

Figure 5.4.3 EC-Grid Extension Plan (Reliability-Oriented Scenario)

5-49

New Guinlo Old Guinlo Calawag

Abongan Talog Tay Tay Power Station Bato Paglaum

Libertad

Bucana Teneguiban San Fernando

Villa Libertad Barotuan El Nido Power Station Pasadena Sibaltan

San Nicolas Marcilla

Guadalupe Borac Decalachao Coron Power Station YKR San Jose

Sta. Monica To Busuanga Bintuan

Figure 5.4.3 EC-Grid Extension Plan (Reliability-Oriented Scenario) (Continued)

5-50 Project cost of the EC-grid extension is shown as Table 5.4.29.

Table 5.4.29 Project Cost of EC-Grid Extension (Reliability-Oriented Scenario) KMS. OF LINE COST Year MUNICIPALITY BARANGAY TAPPING POINT 3Ph 1Ph OS UB P'000 MALIHUD BONO BONO4.000.751.002.003,989 BULALACAO MALIHUD 4.00 0.50 1.00 2.00 3,890 BATARAZA TARUSAN BULALACAO 4.00 0.50 0.75 3.00 3,864 CULANDANUM TARUSAN 14.00 0.50 1.40 3.00 12,244 SANDOVAL TARUSAN 4.00 4.00 3,480 OCAYAN SANDOVAL 4.20 1.20 1.50 3.00 4,542 VILLA LIBERTAD POBLACION 5.00 0.75 1.50 3.00 5,017 EL NIDO PASADENA VILLA LIBERTAD 8.00 0.75 1.20 3.00 7,375 BAROTUAN PASADENA 7.50 0.80 1.50 4.00 7,134 Voltage Regulator 264 PUERTO PRINCESA BABUYAN MAOYON 3.500.751.003.003,633 2004 SAN RAFAELBABUYAN 5.000.500.605.504,765 MALATGAO PANITIAN 3.00 1.00 1.75 4.00 3,613 QUEZON KALATAGBAK PINAGLABANAN 9.00 1.20 1.50 7.50 8,703 SAN NICOLASMINARA 5.001.001.503.005,117 SANDOVALSAN NICOLAS7.001.201.505.006,936 ROXAS ST. TOMAS(IRAAN)SANDOVAL 5.001.502.003.005,473 DUMARAO ST. TOMAS 3.50 2.00 2.00 3,599 PULOT INTERIOR PULOT CENTER 1.00 1.50 0.50 1.00 1,624 SOFRONIO ESPANOLA LABOG PANITIAN 6.001.501.003.005,975 TAY TAY NEW GUINRO BATO 8.00 0.25 0.35 6,637 OLD GUINRO NEW GUINRO 4.00 1.00 1.20 3.00 4,204 SUB TOTAL 114.70 16.90 24.65 67.35 112,079 Voltage Regulator 264 BATARAZA RIO TUBA OCAYAN 5.00 3.50 0.80 12.50 6,389 TARATAK RIO TUBA 10.00 0.80 1.60 3.00 9,156 BROOKES POINT IMULNOD MAINIT 2.00 1.00 1.00 2,004 BUCANA BAROTUAN 5.00 2.00 1.50 3.00 5,514 EL NIDO TENEGUIBAN BUCANA 10.00 1.00 1.50 5.00 9,309 TANABAG SAN RAFAEL2.550.650.903.202,796 PUERTO PRINCESA CONCEPTIONTANABAG 5.001.201.753.005,275 BINDUYAN CONCEPTION 5.00 0.50 0.75 2.50 4,655 2005 LANGOGAN BINDUYAN 10.00 3.00 0.60 12.00 10,188 MENDOZA ST. TOMAS 11.50 1.50 0.50 10.00 10,681 ROXAS TUMARBONG MENDOZA 8.00 1.00 1.50 3.00 7,569 SAN ISIDROMENDOZA 9.001.001.202.008,239 CARAMAY MAGARA 7.001.501.503.506,977 SAN VINCENTE STO NINO ALEMANGUAN 2.00 0.80 2.00 1,993 SOFRONIO ESPANOLAPUNANG LABOG 9.001.005.002.009,440 LIBERTAD ABONGAN 5.002.001.002.505,330 TAY TAY PAGLAUM BATO 5.761.501.002.785,767 SUB TOTAL 111.81 22.15 22.90 72.98 111,546 ABORLAN SAGPANGAN IRAAN 7.00 0.20 2.00 2,949 SUMBILING TARATAK 3.00 0.50 0.75 2.00 2,993 IWAHIG SANDVAL 6.00 1.00 1.50 2.00 5,882 BATARAZA IGANG IGANGIWAHIG 9.001.201.303.008,403 SARONG IGANG IGANG8.000.751.203.007,375 CORON MARCILLA BORAC 6.001.101.253.705,932 SAN JOSE DECALACHAO 4.50 0.80 0.90 2.80 4,428 EL NIDO SAN FERNANDO TENEGUIBAN 8.50 1.50 2.00 3.00 8,335 SIBARTAN SAN FERNANDO 5.00 0.75 1.00 2.00 4,807 2006 BAHILE SALVACION 5.000.501.304.004,908 PUERTO PRINCESA MACARASCAS BAHILE 1.00 0.80 1.00 1,123 SALVACION CARAMAY 4.00 0.80 1.00 1.50 3,983 ROXAS RIZAL SALVACION 4.00 0.75 1.00 1.50 3,963 NICANOR ZABALA CARAMAY 11.50 1.50 0.50 10.00 10,681 SAN MIGUEL NICANOR ZABALA 5.50 0.50 1.50 2.00 5,274 SOFRONIO ESPANOLAIRARAY PUNANG 4.001.001.203.004,204 TALOG PAGLAUM 3.00 1.50 1.00 4.50 3,601 TAY TAY CALAWAG PAGLAUM 9.00 2.00 1.00 4.00 8,678 SUB TOTAL 97.00 23.15 19.40 55.00 97,519 TOTAL 323.51 62.20 66.95 195.33 321,144

(c) Environment-friendly scenario The results of the environment-friendly scenario are the same as those of the base case.

5-51 (3) Mini-grid system plan The estimates for a distribution line extension plan by ECs are used in construction expense calculations for the distribution line of a mini-grid system in the same manner as the expense calculations for an EC-grid extension plan. However, most planned three-phase distribution line lengths are the portions needed for connection with the next/source barangay. For this reason, halves of the values, which ECs planned, are added up as three-phase distribution line lengths in a mini-grid system.

Project costs for mini-grid systems are shown in Table 5.4.30 for the base scenario, Table 5.4.31 for the reliability-oriented scenario and Table 5.4.32 for the environment-friendly scenario.

Table 5.4.30 Project Cost of Mini-Grid System (Base Scenario) No of Households Type of Power Station Distribution Line（km） Distribution Project Cost MUNICIPALITY Barangay 2000 2006 2015System Cost (Php) 3Ph 1Ph OS UB Line Cost (Php) AGUTAYA ALGECIRAS 694 1,074 2,031 Diesel 2,505,600 1.50 0.50 1.00 1.50 1,206,810 3,712,410 CONCEPTION 505 781 1,477 Diesel 1,814,400 2.00 0.40 0.90 1.50 1,339,842 3,154,242 BALABAC BANCALAAN 1,191 1,449 1,926 Diesel 2,505,600 3.00 0.80 1.25 2.00 2,044,440 4,550,040 MANGSEE 938 1,141 1,517 Diesel 1,814,400 3.50 1.20 1.00 2.00 2,328,676 4,143,076 BATARAZA CULANDANUM 605 792 1,170 Diesel 1,440,000 5.00 0.50 1.40 3.00 2,842,797 4,282,797 RIO TUBA 1,471 1,924 2,845 Diesel 3,110,400 5.00 3.50 0.80 12.50 4,344,945 7,455,345 SANDOVAL 429 561 829 Diesel 979,200 9.00 10.00 4,205,029 5,184,229 SUMBILING 426 558 824 Diesel 979,200 5.00 0.50 0.75 2.00 2,584,678 3,563,878 EL NIDO BUCANA 740 953 1,378 Diesel 1,814,400 5.00 2.00 1.50 3.00 3,470,280 5,284,680 TENEGUIBAN 545 702 1,015 Diesel 1,440,000 10.00 1.00 1.50 5.00 5,221,995 6,661,995 PUERTO PRINCESA CABAYUGAN 415 548 822 Diesel 979,200 4.00 0.50 1.50 3.00 2,465,673 3,444,873 QUEZON ARAMAYWAN 566 658 819 Diesel 979,200 8.00 0.75 1.00 6.00 4,199,789 5,178,989 ISUGOD 628 730 908 Diesel 979,200 6.00 0.50 0.80 3.00 3,061,860 4,041,060 QUINLOGAN 775 901 1,121 Diesel 1,440,000 4.50 1.00 1.20 7.50 3,010,708 4,450,708 SAN VINCENTE CARURAY 672 772 942 Diesel 1,440,000 3.50 1.50 2.00 5.00 2,921,892 4,361,892 TAYTAY NEW GUINLO 570 669 845 Diesel 979,200 8.00 0.25 0.35 3,367,347 4,346,547 RIZAL CANIPAAN 392 618 1,199 Diesel 1,440,000 5.75 0.75 1.20 5.00 3,290,717 4,730,717 CULASIAN 307 484 939 Diesel 1,440,000 2.00 0.50 1.25 3.00 1,569,169 3,009,169 IRAAN 941 1,483 2,877 Diesel 3,110,400 12.00 1.00 1.25 10.00 6,223,638 9,334,038 LATUD 267 420 815 Diesel 979,200 8.00 2.00 3.50 6.00 5,486,653 6,465,853 PANALINGAAN 571 900 1,746 Diesel 2,505,600 6.00 0.50 1.60 2.50 3,288,438 5,794,038 RANSANG 668 1,052 2,042 Diesel 2,505,600 8.00 1.00 1.80 3.00 4,394,079 6,899,679 SOFRONIO ESPANOLA LABOG 604 729 957 Diesel 1,440,000 6.00 1.50 1.00 3.00 3,522,332 4,962,332 TOTAL 14,920 19,899 31,044 38,620,800 76,391,782 115,012,582

Table 5.4.31 Project Cost of Mini-Grid System (Reliability-Oriented Scenario) No of Households Type of Power Station Distribution Line（km） Distribution Project Cost MUNICIPALITY バランガイ 2000 2006 2015System Cost (Php) 3Ph 1Ph OS UB Line Cost (Php) AGUTAYA ALGECIRAS 694 1,074 2,031 Diesel 2,505,600 1.50 0.50 1.00 1.50 1,206,810 3,712,410 CONCEPTION 505 781 1,477 Diesel 1,814,400 2.00 0.40 0.90 1.50 1,339,842 3,154,242 BALABAC BANCALAAN 1,191 1,449 1,926 Diesel 2,505,600 3.00 0.80 1.25 2.00 2,044,440 4,550,040 MANGSEE 938 1,141 1,517 Diesel 1,814,400 3.50 1.20 1.00 2.00 2,328,676 4,143,076 PUERTO PRINCESA CABAYUGAN 415 548 822 Diesel 979,200 4.00 0.50 1.50 3.00 2,465,673 3,444,873 QUEZON ARAMAYWAN 566 658 819 Diesel 979,200 8.00 0.75 1.00 6.00 4,199,789 5,178,989 ISUGOD 628 730 908 Diesel 979,200 6.00 0.50 0.80 3.00 3,061,860 4,041,060 QUINLOGAN 775 901 1,121 Diesel 1,440,000 4.50 1.00 1.20 7.50 3,010,708 4,450,708 SAN VINCENTE CARURAY 672 772 942 Diesel 1,440,000 3.50 1.50 2.00 5.00 2,921,892 4,361,892 RIZAL CANIPAAN 392 618 1,199 Diesel 1,440,000 5.75 0.75 1.20 5.00 3,290,717 4,730,717 CULASIAN 307 484 939 Diesel 1,440,000 2.00 0.50 1.25 3.00 1,569,169 3,009,169 IRAAN 941 1,483 2,877 Diesel 3,110,400 12.00 1.00 1.25 10.00 6,223,638 9,334,038 LATUD 267 420 815 Diesel 979,200 8.00 2.00 3.50 6.00 5,486,653 6,465,853 PANALINGAAN 571 900 1,746 Diesel 2,505,600 6.00 0.50 1.60 2.50 3,288,438 5,794,038 RANSANG 668 1,052 2,042 Diesel 2,505,600 8.00 1.00 1.80 3.00 4,394,079 6,899,679 TOTAL 28,293 37,597 58,985 26,438,400 46,832,382 73,270,782

5-52 Table 5.4.32 Project Cost of Mini-Grid System (Environment-Friendly Scenario) No of Households Type of Power Station Distribution Line（km） Distribution Project Cost MUNICIPALITY バランガイBarangay 2000 2006 2015System Cost (Php) 3Ph 1Ph OS UB Line Cost (Php) AGUTAYA ALGECIRAS 694 1,074 2,031 Diesel 2,505,600 1.50 0.50 1.00 1.50 1,206,810 3,712,410 CONCEPTION 505 781 1,477 Diesel 1,814,400 2.00 0.40 0.90 1.50 1,339,842 3,154,242 BALABAC BANCALAAN 1,191 1,449 1,926 Diesel 2,505,600 3.00 0.80 1.25 2.00 2,044,440 4,550,040 MANGSEE 938 1,141 1,517 Diesel 1,814,400 3.50 1.20 1.00 2.00 2,328,676 4,143,076 BATARAZA CULANDANUM 605 792 1,170 Diesel 1,440,000 5.00 0.50 1.40 3.00 2,842,797 4,282,797 RIO TUBA 1,471 1,924 2,845 Diesel 3,110,400 5.00 3.50 0.80 12.50 4,344,945 7,455,345 SANDOVAL 429 561 829 Diesel 979,200 9.00 10.00 4,205,029 5,184,229 SUMBILING 426 558 824 Diesel 979,200 5.00 0.50 0.75 2.00 2,584,678 3,563,878 EL NIDO BUCANA 740 953 1,378 Diesel 1,814,400 5.00 2.00 1.50 3.00 3,470,280 5,284,680 TENEGUIBAN 545 702 1,015 Diesel 1,440,000 10.00 1.00 1.50 5.00 5,221,995 6,661,995 PUERTO PRINCESA CABAYUGAN 415 548 822 Diesel 979,200 4.00 0.50 1.50 3.00 2,465,673 3,444,873 QUEZON ARAMAYWAN 566 658 819 Micro Hydro 20,269,20020,069,000 8.00 0.75 1.00 6.00 4,199,789 24,468,98924,268,789 ISUGOD 628 730 908 Diesel 979,200 6.00 0.50 0.80 3.00 3,061,860 4,041,060 QUINLOGAN 775 901 1,121 Diesel 1,440,000 4.50 1.00 1.20 7.50 3,010,708 4,450,708 SAN VINCENTE CARURAY 672 772 942 Diesel 1,440,000 3.50 1.50 2.00 5.00 2,921,892 4,361,892 TAYTAY NEW GUINLO 570 669 845 Diesel 979,200 8.00 0.25 0.35 3,367,347 4,346,547 RIZAL CANIPAAN 392 618 1,199 Diesel 1,440,000 5.75 0.75 1.20 5.00 3,290,717 4,730,717 CULASIAN 307 484 939 Diesel 1,440,000 2.00 0.50 1.25 3.00 1,569,169 3,009,169 IRAAN 941 1,483 2,877 Diesel 3,110,400 12.00 1.00 1.25 10.00 6,223,638 9,334,038 LATUD 267 420 815 Diesel 979,200 8.00 2.00 3.50 6.00 5,486,653 6,465,853 PANALINGAAN 571 900 1,746 Diesel 2,505,600 6.00 0.50 1.60 2.50 3,288,438 5,794,038 RANSANG 668 1,052 2,042 Diesel 2,505,600 8.00 1.00 1.80 3.00 4,394,079 6,899,679 SOFRONIO ESPANOLA LABOG 604 729 957 Diesel 1,440,000 6.00 1.50 1.00 3.00 3,522,332 4,962,332 TOTAL 14,920 19,899 31,044 57,910,800 76,391,782 134,302,582134,102,382

5.5 Sensitivity Analysis on Household Electrification Improvement

All barangays in the province will be electrified by an appropriated method up to 2006, and then barangay electrification of Palawan is expected to be 100%. After the barangay electrification target is achieved by 2006, the focus will then shift to the improvement of household electrification. MEDP 2003 has the target of 90% household electrification (entire Philippines) by 2017. Therefore, a study targeting the household electrification level is needed for Palawan. In the Study, two cases for the sensitivity analysis of a household electrification ratio are prepared.

5.5.1 Setting Target Household Electrification Ratio

The improvement of household electrification requires electrification in areas (e.g. sitio) far from a tapping point in a barangay. A stand-alone system is assumed to be the electrification method for the electrification of such areas in the Study10. Figure 5.5.1 shows the image of improvement of household electrification in a barangay.

10 It is assumed that the number of connected households will increase to keep a constant household electrification ratio in a barangay electrified by EC-grid or Mini-grid.

5-53 - 2006 2007 - 2015 Sitio C Sitio C Sitio A Sitio A

Household Electrification Barangay Center Improvement (Electrification with EC-Grid Barangay Center Extension or Mini-Grid System) (Electrification with EC-Grid Sitio B Sitio B Extension or Mini-Grid System)

Concentration Ratio: Constant Capacity to Pay Factor: Constant Household electrified Household electrified with EC-Grid Extension or Mini-Grid System with Stand-Alone System Figure 5.5.1 Image of Household Electrification Improvement

Table 5.5.1 shows these cases for sensitivity analysis.

Table 5.5.1 Cases for Analysis on Household Electrification Improvement Electrification Method Year EC-Grid Mini-Grid Stand-Alone 2006 Target : Barangay Electrification Ratio = 100%

2007 EC-Grid Stand-alone Mini-Grid Stand-alone Stand-alone

Improvement of Improvement of Improvement of HH Electrification Ratio HH Electrification Ratio HH Electrification Ratio

2015 Target of HH Case 1 50 35 35 Electrification Ratio (%) Case 2 80 35 35

5.5.2 Results of Sensitivity Analysis

Tables 5.5.2 to 5.5.4 show the results of the sensitivity analysis.

Table 5.5.2 Results of Sensitivity Analysis on Household Electrification Ratio (Electrification Ratio) Scenario / CASE 2003 2006 2010 2015 Base Scenario no Target of HH e-Ratio 40.4% 41.6% 41.3% Case 1 34.0% 40.4% 48.3% 54.5% Case 2 40.4% 53.7% 65.1% Reliability-Oriented no Target of HH e-Ratio 42.5% 42.4% 42.1% Scenario Case 1 34.0% 42.5% 50.0% 56.1% Case 2 42.5% 57.7% 70.0% Environment-Friendly no Target of HH e-Ratio 40.4% 41.6% 41.3% Scenario Case 1 34.0% 40.4% 48.3% 54.5% Case 2 40.4% 53.7% 65.1%

5-54 Table 5.5.3 Results of Sensitivity Analysis on Household Electrification Ratio (Investment Cost) (Unit: million Php) Barangay Electrification Household Electrification Total Investment Scenario/Case Phase Improvement Phase Cost (million Php) (2004 to 2006) (2007 to 2015) Base Scenario no Target of HH e-Ratio 0.0 183.3 Case 1 183.3 665.2 848.5 Case 2 1,155.0 1,338.3 Reliability-Oriented no Target of HH e-Ratio 0.0 427.3 Scenario Case 1 427.3 640.5 1,067.8 Case 2 1,280.1 1,707.4 Environment-Friendly no Target of HH e-Ratio 0.0 202.4 Scenario Case 1 202.4 665.2 867.6 Case 2 1,155.0 1,357.4 *Investment cost in the household electrification phase is calculated by No. of target households * 17,492.00 Php/HH

Table 5.5.4 Results of Sensitivity Analysis on Household Electrification Ratio (No. of Target Household)

(Base Scenario) ( unit : households ) Case 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 合計 no Target HH e-Ratio 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Case 1 4,300 4,377 4,419 4,572 4,328 4,387 4,418 4,509 2,718 38,028 Case 2 7,377 7,277 7,277 7,400 7,432 7,575 7,271 7,410 7,010 66,029

(Reliability-Oriented Scenario) ( unit : households ) Case 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 合計 no Target HH e-Ratio 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Case 1 4,100 4,217 4,239 4,100 4,186 4,337 4,229 4,307 2,904 36,619 Case 2 8,097 8,543 8,609 8,200 8,200 8,205 8,633 8,662 6,031 73,180

5.6 Scenario and Case for the Master Plan

In Section 5.4 the reliability-oriented scenario and environment-friendly scenario are studied as alternatives to the base scenario (least expensive electrification scenario). In the reliability-oriented scenario, the investment cost will be 427.3 million pesos, which is more than double the cost for the base scenario. And for the environment-friendly scenario, one site for micro hydropower will be feasible even when an incentive is given. The least expensive method will be the optimum electrification method for achieving the whole barangay electrification target, considering the finances that are available. Therefore, the Study team decided to employ the base scenario for the Master Plan.

On the other hand, 2 cases for sensitivity analysis on household electrification ratio are studied in the Section 5.5. For case 1 under the base scenario, total investment cost will be 848.5 million pesos and it will be 1,338.3 million pesos for case 2 under the base scenario. Considering the target household electrification level in MEDP, funding availability and villagers’ capacity to pay for electricity, the Study team decided to select case 1 for the Mater Plan. The summary of the Base Scenario (Case 1) is shown as the Master Plan in Chapter 7.

5-55 5.7 Economic and Financial Analysis of Palawan Rural Electrification

5.7.1 Economic Benefits

This section deals with the economic benefits of the current rural electrification plans.

(1) The Methodology There are numerous uses for electricity with varying kinds and levels of benefits. However, as the socio-economic survey in the study has revealed, the largest use of electricity in rural electrification is lighting, followed by radio and TV. For lighting, the majority of the un-electrified households use kerosene lamps. Compared to kerosene, electric lighting provides more light with less cost per lumen. The consumer surplus from that difference is the economic benefit from electrification.

Source; Barnes et al.11

Figure 5.7.1 Economic Benefits from Electrification

The actual lumens from the lamps in use have not been measured directly by the current study, but there are numerous existing studies. The household expenditure for lighting has been determined to be 350-400 pesos. The power demand of the households is considered to be the same with the standard households in this study. Based on these assumptions, the surpluses for various electrification methods have been determined and are shown in Table 5.7.1.

11 Barnes et al. “Quantitative Measures of Benefits from Rural Electrification in the Philippines” 2000, http://www.rsvp.nrel.gov/vpconference/vp2000/vp2000_conference/ ensuring_aleta_domdom.pdf

5-56 Table 5.7.1 Household Benefits from Electrification MiniGrid Diesel Consumed Lumen Cost klmh/month php/lm h Parafin Lamp 5 16.2 Fluorescent Lamp 126 0.21 （20W Fluorescent lamp x 2, 6h/day supply) Consumer Surplus= 1,959 php/month HH

SHS Consumed Lumen Cost klmh/month php/lm h Parafin Lamp 5 16.2 Fluorescent Lamp 81 2.36 （120W/day) Consumer Surplus= 1,219 php/month HH

Stand Alone Diesel Consumed Lumen Cost klmh/month php/lm h Parafin Lamp 5 16.2 Fluorescent Lamp 86.4 0.30 （20W Fluorescent lamp x 2, 4h/day supply) Consumer Surplus= 1,317 php/month HH

If the electrification proceeds as expected and the households can enjoy the expected amount of power, there will be significant benefits regardless of the electrification method. Even in the lowest case of SHS, the monthly benefit will amount to 1,219 pesos per household. In the highest case of a mini-grid system, this will amount to 2,000 pesos12. In another survey (Barnes et al. 2000), the monthly household benefits per household is calculated to be US$36.75. This corresponds with the mini-grid benefit calculated above13.

Based on these figures, the economic benefits of the electrification program have been calculated for each of the electrification methods. Assumptions for each method are basically identical to those employed in the method selection. Also, the following assumptions are made for the operation;

(i) EC-grid extension It is assumed that the current PALECO/BISELCO operations will continue. Based on the financial analysis of these two ECs, they maintain stable operations. The cost has been contained except for the purchased power cost which they have no control over, and the operations suggest a reliable level in terms of technical competence.

12 The case for grid extension has not been calculated, although it will obviously produce a higher benefit due to lower cost and longer supply. 13 There is criticism of this method, which points out that the light itself seldom provides any direct benefits. Also, not all the light will be actually “consumed”, and the consumed light will also be subject to significant diminishing marginal utility. Due to these criticisms, Barnes 2000 and others have attempted to calculate the benefit in a more direct manner. They measured benefits from TV viewing, increased education and employment. These cannot be added to the benefits from the increased lumen consumption, since that would overlap. However, the results suggest that the direct benefits are comparable or even higher than the lumen based benefits, which suggests that benefits measured by this manner cannot be overvalued.

5-57 (ii) Mini-grid system For mini-grids, it is assumed that operations similar to the existing mini-grids will be undertaken. For investment, the units used for method selection has been employed. For operational costs, figures similar to those of Port Barton have been used, where operations have continued long enough and have stabilized.

(iii) Stand-alone system In this calculation, half of the stand-alone systems will use SHS, and the rest will use stand- alone diesel generators. The units are based on the assumptions used for the method selection.

Table 5.7.2 Economic Analysis of the EC-Grid Extension Grid Extension Unit; HH, million Peso 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Newly Electrified HH 0 692 1,153 1,384 2,193 3,002 3,811 4,620 5,429 6,238 7,047 7,856 8,665 9,474 10,283 Economic Benefit 0.0 16.3 35.2 42.3 67.0 91.7 116.5 141.2 165.9 190.7 215.4 240.1 264.8 289.6 314.3

Investment 19.2 14.4 9.0 5.3 5.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 Cost Power 4.5 7.4 8.9 14.2 19.4 24.6 29.8 35.1 40.3 45.5 50.7 56.0 61.2 66.4 Subsidy 0.7 1.1 1.3 2.1 2.9 3.7 4.5 5.3 6.0 6.8 7.6 8.4 9.2 10.0 O&M 1.2 2.0 2.4 3.7 5.1 6.5 7.9 9.3 10.7 12.0 13.4 14.8 16.2 17.6 Total Operation Cost 6.3 10.5 12.6 20.0 27.4 34.8 42.2 49.6 57.0 64.4 71.8 79.2 86.6 93.9 Total Outlay 19.2 20.7 19.5 18.0 25.7 32.0 39.4 46.8 54.2 61.6 68.9 76.3 83.7 91.1 98.5

Net Benefit -19.2 -4.5 15.7 24.3 41.3 59.7 77.1 94.4 111.8 129.1 146.4 163.8 181.1 198.4 215.7 EIRR= 82%

Table 5.7.3 Economic Analysis of the Mini-Grid System Mini Grid Unit; HH, million Peso 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Newly Electrified HH 0 0 0 10,865 10,865 10,865 10,865 10,865 10,865 10,865 10,865 10,865 10,865 10,865 10,865 Economic Benefit 0.0 0.0 0.0 255.4 255.4 255.4 255.4 255.4 255.4 255.4 255.4 255.4 255.4 255.4 255.4

Investment 115.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Cost Fuel 0.0 0.0 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 Subsidy 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 O&M 0.0 0.0 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 Total Operation Cost 0.0 0.0 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 Total Outlay 0.0 0.0 115.0 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1

Net Benefit 0.0 0.0 -115.0 229.3 229.3 229.3 229.3 229.3 229.3 229.3 229.3 229.3 229.3 229.3 229.3 EIRR= 199% B/C= 5.72

Table 5.7.4 Economic Analysis of Stand-Alone System (SHS) Stand Alone SHS Unit; HH, million Peso 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Newly Electrified HH 0 609 1,218 1,340 1,814 2,288 2,762 3,237 3,711 4,185 4,659 5,133 5,607 6,081 6,556 Economic Benefit 0.0 8.9 17.8 19.6 26.5 33.5 40.4 47.4 54.3 61.2 68.2 75.1 82.0 89.0 95.9

Investment 31.9 31.9 6.4 6.4 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 Cost Battery 2.0 4.0 0.8 4.1 6.0 3.3 6.7 8.7 6.0 9.4 11.3 8.6 Charge 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 3.5 0.7 0.7 2.7 2.7 Lamp 2.5 2.5 0.5 0.5 1.9 1.9 Total Operation Cost 2.0 4.0 0.8 4.1 6.0 3.3 12.7 14.7 7.2 10.6 16.0 13.3 Total Outlay 31.9 31.9 6.4 8.4 28.9 25.7 28.9 30.9 28.2 37.6 39.5 32.0 35.4 40.8 38.1

Net Benefit -31.9 -23.0 11.4 11.2 -2.3 7.8 11.5 16.5 26.1 23.7 28.7 43.1 46.6 48.1 57.8 EIRR= 23% B/C= 1.27

5-58 Table 5.7.5 Economic Analysis of Stand-Alone System (Diesel) Stand Alone Grid Unit; HH, million Peso 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Newly Electrified HH 0 609 1,218 1,340 1,814 2,288 2,762 3,237 3,711 4,185 4,659 5,133 5,607 6,081 6,556 Economic Benefit 0.0 9.6 19.3 21.2 28.7 36.2 43.7 51.2 58.7 66.1 73.6 81.1 88.6 96.1 103.6

Investment 4.6 4.6 0.9 6.4 8.1 8.1 4.5 9.9 11.7 11.7 8.0 13.5 15.2 15.2 11.6 Cost Fuel 0.8 1.6 1.8 2.4 3.0 3.7 4.3 4.9 5.6 6.2 6.8 7.4 8.1 8.7 Subsidy 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 O&M 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Total Operation Cost 0.9 1.9 2.0 2.8 3.5 4.2 4.9 5.7 6.4 7.1 7.8 8.6 9.3 10.0 Total Outlay 4.6 5.5 2.8 8.4 10.9 11.6 8.7 14.9 17.3 18.1 15.1 21.3 23.8 24.5 21.6

Net Benefit -4.6 4.1 16.5 12.7 22.4 29.1 35.9 42.7 49.4 56.2 63.0 69.7 76.5 83.3 90.1 EIRR= 187% B/C= 3.42

In all cases, it is obvious that there are significant economic benefits to be gained from rural electrification.

5.7.2 Financial Analysis

It has been determined that there will be significant economic gains from electrifying the rural areas, provided that the intended target households will use the expected amount of power. This will depend largely on the tariff. The standard households in this study will use 166 kWh annually. Socio-economic surveys suggest that the energy expenditure of these households is 350-400 pesos per month. If we assume that this entire amount will be allocated for electricity, the tariff should be 32 Php/kWh. This should provide considerably higher benefits, due to the difference in the quality of the energy. On the other hand, the tariff of the EC grid system is 5.6 Php/kWh and the tariffs for BAPAs is 15 Php/kWh. Therefore, 30 Php/kWh will be considered to be unfairly high and unacceptable.

Here, we shall determine the level of necessary tariff without any subsidy (i.e., the necessary level of tariff to achieve 12% IRR). Next, the level of necessary subsidy for the initial investment will be determined.

(1) EC-grid extension The financial analysis for the grid extension is shown in the next table.

Table 5.7.6 Financial Analysis of the EC-Grid Extension Grid Extension Tariff= 11.5 php/kWh Unit; HH, million Peso 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Newly Electrified HH 0 692 1,153 1,384 2,193 3,002 3,811 4,620 5,429 6,238 7,047 7,856 8,665 9,474 10,283 Revenue 0.0 2.9 4.9 5.9 9.3 12.7 16.1 19.6 23.0 26.4 29.8 33.3 36.7 40.1 43.6

Investment 19.2 14.4 9.0 5.3 5.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 Cost 9.5 8.7 3.9 Power 1.1 1.8 2.1 3.4 4.6 5.9 7.1 8.4 9.6 10.9 12.2 13.4 14.7 15.9 Subsidy 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 O&M 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 Total Operation Cost 1.2 2.1 2.5 3.9 5.3 6.8 8.2 9.7 11.1 12.5 14.0 15.4 16.9 18.3 Total Outlay 19.2 15.6 11.1 7.8 9.6 9.9 11.3 12.8 14.2 15.7 17.1 18.5 20.0 21.4 22.9

Net Benefit -19.2 -12.7 -6.2 -1.9 -0.3 2.8 4.8 6.8 8.8 10.7 12.8 14.7 16.7 18.7 20.7 FIRR= 11.6%

5-59 In order to achieve 12% IRR, the necessary tariff level would be 11.5Php/kWh, significantly higher than the current 5.6Php/kWh. One reason for the higher tariff is the limited level of demand that the model assumes, although since most of the new connections are assumed to be households, this is not an unreasonable condition. Obviously, this level is rather high. It is difficult to achieve sufficient returns with a large amount of investment. If we maintain the current tariff, the initial investment needs to be subsidized. Based on the model, the investment amount needs to fall to 11% of the current level, which means that 89% of the investment needs to be subsidized.

(2) Mini-grid systems In the case of mini-grids, the tariff needs to become 23 Php/kWh. Compared to the current BAPA rate of 15Php/kWh, this is high. The difference reflects the fact that the current tariff is made possible only by PGP covering the initial investment.

Table 5.7.7 Financial Analysis of the Mini-Grid System Mini Grid Tariff= 23 php/kWh Unit; HH, million Peso 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Newly Electrified HH 0 0 0 10,865 10,865 10,865 10,865 10,865 10,865 10,865 10,865 10,865 10,865 10,865 10,865 Revenue 0.00.00.041.541.541.541.541.541.541.541.541.541.541.541.5

Investment 115.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cost 115.0 Fuel 0.0 0.0 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 Subsidy 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 O&M 0.0 0.0 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 Total Operation Cost 0.0 0.0 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 Total Outlay 0.0 0.0 115.0 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1

Net Benefit 0.0 0.0 -115.0 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 FIRR= 12%

For the 15 Php/kWh tariff to prevail, similar arrangements need to be made to decrease the initial investment. The initial investment needs to become1/5 of the current level. This means that 80% of the initial investment needs to be subsidized in some way.

(3) Stand-alone systems (Diesel) For stand-alone systems (diesel), the necessary tariff will become 41 Php/kWh. Since the facility is small in scale, and the efficiency is lower, the unit cost (i.e. tariff) necessarily becomes higher.

Table 5.7.8 Financial Analysis of the Stand-Alone System (Diesel) Stand Alone Grid Tariff= 41.1 php/kWh Unit; HH, million Peso 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Newly Electrified HH 0 609 1,218 1,340 1,814 2,288 2,762 3,237 3,711 4,185 4,659 5,133 5,607 6,0816,556 Revenue 0.0 2.4 4.9 5.3 7.2 9.1 11.0 12.9 14.8 16.7 18.6 20.5 22.4 24.2 26.1

Investment 4.6 4.6 0.9 6.4 8.1 8.1 4.5 9.9 11.7 11.7 8.0 13.5 15.2 15.2 11.6 1.0 4.6 4.6 0.9 6.4 8.1 8.1 4.5 9.9 11.7 11.7 8.0 13.5 15.2 15.2 11.6 Cost Fuel 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.4 4.7 5.1 Subsidy 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 O&M 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 Total Operation Cost 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.2 4.6 5.0 5.4 5.9 Total Outlay 4.6 5.1 2.0 7.6 9.7 10.2 6.9 12.8 15.0 15.4 12.2 18.1 20.2 20.6 17.4

Net Benefit -4.6 -2.7 2.9 -2.2 -2.5 -1.0 4.1 0.1 -0.2 1.3 6.4 2.4 2.1 3.6 8.7 FIRR= 11.9%

5-60 Of course, there are cases where users pay higher tariffs. However, such high rates are only borne by those who are willing to pay that amount. The situation should differ for cases where the electrification ratio will be increased as a pseudo-universal access policy. The extreme difference among electrification methods will not be easily justified. If we were to achieve the current BAPA tariff level of 15 Php/kWh, the investment must come down to 18% of the current level. This means that more than 80% of the investment needs to be subsidized for each generator.

(4) Stand-Alone Systems (SHS) For stand-alone systems (SHS), it is difficult to apply a tariff structure since the usage cannot be monitored and the users will virtually own the unit. Here, we will assume a loan that would include future battery replacements. In this case, with a 10% (4000 pesos) down payment, a monthly fee of about 400 pesos will be required, which is similar to the current energy expenditure of 350-400 pesos. However, the 10% down payment will be difficult for most users. Some method will be needed to ease this burden.

5.7.3 Necessary Funds

Based on the analysis, it is obvious that the current scheme cannot be self-financed. In order to achieve an acceptable tariff level, the funds that can be generated internally will be only 11% of the necessary investment for grid extension, 20% for mini-grids, and 18% for the stand alone diesel systems. Also with stand-alone systems (SHS), some form of down payment assistance will be needed, which should amount to 2 million pesos annually.

This means that for the 220 million pesos investment that would be necessary before 2006, 130 million pesos will need to be financed from outside, and of the 310 million pesos required before 2015, 250 million will need to be financed from some outside source.

5-61

Chapter 6 EC-Grid Power Development Plan

6.1 EC-Grid Power Demand Forecast

As mentioned in Section 5.2, there are two general methods for making power demand forecasts, one is a macro-method and the other one is a micro-method. The macro-method is a rational method if it is possible to collect time-series data on economic indicators and power demand in the long run, because the data used in this method is objective information, and this method is also simple.

In the case of employing this method for a small power system like the Palawan system, however, enough attention should be paid to the future development plan in the commercial and industrial sectors, because such demand greatly affects the future power demand. Such demand should be estimated individually and be added to the forecast made by the macro-method. According to “Medium-term Development Plan 2003 - 20121,” the development plan in the trade and industry sector is focused on tourism and agriculture, and there is no development plan for large commercial or industrial facilities. Therefore, the study does not cover the development of such large demand until 20122.

The Study employs a historical trend analysis for the EC-grid power demand forecast in Palawan. This is because the major industries in Palawan are agriculture3 and service (see Table 6.1.1), and there are little correlations between power demand and Gross Provincial Domestic Products (GPDP). In addition, there is a close correlation between population and residential demand in general. However, the only official data on population is “The Census of Population and Housing” conducted by the National Statistics Office every five years. Therefore, it is impossible to analyze a correlation of power demand with population or the number of households adequately.

Table 6.1.1 Gross Provincial Domestic Products (at current prices) (Unit: 1,000 Pesos) Year 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Agriculture 5,124,609 5,642,324 6,519,442 6,942,708 7,436,959 Industry 1,992,295 2,010,145 2,082,237 2,152,962 2,269,395 Services 4,684,787 5,146,604 5,228,192 5,781,076 6,702,551 Total 11,801,691 12,799,073 13,829,871 14,876,746 16,408,905 Source: PPDO

1 Prepared by the provincial development council, Province of Palawan, October 2, 2003 2 According to the interview with PALECO, a cannery (1,500 kW) and sanitary land (500 - 750 kW) will be in operation in Puerto Princesa City in 2004. 3 Agriculture includes fishery and forestry.

6-1 6.1.1 Energy Sales Forecast

Table 6.1.2 shows the historical data on energy sales of ECs and an annual average growth rate (AAGR) by consumer type. Though the ratio of industrial consumers was about 20 % until 1997, the ratio has been under 10 % since 1998.

Table 6.1.2 Energy Sales by Consumer Type in Palawan (Unit: MWh) PALECO Y1995 Y 1996 Y 1997 Y 1998 Y 1999 Y 2000 Y 2001 AAGR Residential 19,511 22,135 26,980 32,468 33,034 35,776 38,843 12.16% Commercial 7,350 8,498 10,390 19,761 20,396 21,980 21,278 19.38% Industrial 10,963 10,912 12,085 6,153 6,762 6,995 7,158 5.17%4 PublicBldg. 6,340 6,788 7,702 6,787 7,570 8,599 8,927 5.87% Others 1,187 1,245 1,445 1,511 1,486 1,935 1,885 8.01% Sub Total 45,351 49,578 58,602 66,680 69,248 75,285 78,091 9.48% BISELCO Residential 901 1,043 1,289 1,354 1,467 1,758 1,819 12.42% Commercial 457 475 547 633 756 886 882 11.58％ Industrial 222 263 325 68 104 110 174 36.78% PublicBldg. 96 110 128 143 193 204 226 15.34% Others 14 12 12 72 17 30 37 17.58% Sub Total 1,690 1,903 2,301 2,270 2,537 2,988 3,138 10.86% Total 47,041 51,481 60,903 68,950 71,785 78,273 81,229 9.53% Source: NEA

Table 6.1.7 shows the energy sales forecast from 2004 to 2015 for each consumer type in Palawan, which is estimated by the actual energy sales of each consumer type in 2001 and the annual average growth rate of each consumer type shown in Table 6.1.2.

Next, energy sales for each consumer type are allocated to each municipality on the basis of the historical share of each municipality. Table 6.1.3 shows the 6-year average share of the energy sales in each municipality from PALECO. Puerto Princesa City is the top municipality in terms of energy sales with an average share of over 70% for all consumer types. The second is Narra, and the third is Brooke’s Point. These three municipalities, which are connected together through the backbone-grid, consume 90% of the total electric energy supplied by PALECO. When Roxas and Taytay connect to the backbone-grid in 2005, the share of energy sales in the five municipalities connected to the backbone-grid will reach nearly 95%.

4 Even though the actual annual average growth rate for industrial consumers from 1995 to 2001 was negative, the study employs the annual average growth rate for the four years from 1998 to 2001, because industrial consumers are still in business.

6-2 Table 6.1.3 Share of PALECO Energy Sales for each Municipality Residential Commercial Industrial PublicBuildings Others PPC 70.09% 71.78% 79.42% 75.56% 75.56% Narra 13.14% 12.75% 17.15% 7.90% 11.53% Brooke’s Point 6.38% 8.93% 2.22% 4.72% 1.71% Cuyo 4.15% 2.01% 0.48% 1.76% 4.96% Roxas 3.16% 2.75% 1.95% 1.57% 1.81% Taytay 0.67% 0.44% - 0.51% 2.53% Araceli 0.30% 0.21% - 0.15% 0.71% El Nido 0.55% 0.65% - 0.16% 0.70% San Vicente 0.33% 0.31% - 0.31% 0.42% Bataraza 0.42% 0.34% - 0.13% 0.25% Source: PALECO Data

The Study assumes that energy sales for each consumer type in Balabac, Cagayancillo and Agutaya are as much as 1, 1/2, 1/3 times the energy sales in Araceli, respectively in terms of peak demand and supply hours in each municipality. The Study also uses the municipality share for 1998 in all consumer types in the BISELCO service areas, because the fluctuation of the municipality share in energy sales is small, as shown in Table 6.1.4.

Table 6.1.4 Share of Energy Sales for each Municipality by Consumer Type PALECO Area Residential Commercial Industrial Public Bldg. Others Puerto Princesa City 70.28% 71.38% 78.46% 82.57% 74.47% Narra 13.18% 12.68% 16.94% 7.87% 11.36% Brooke’s Point 6.39% 8.88% 2.19% 4.71% 1.68% Cuyo 4.16% 2.00%0.48% 1.76% 4.89% Roxas 3.17% 2.74%1.93% 1.57% 1.78% Taytay 0.67% 0.43%0.00% 0.51% 2.50% Araceli 0.30% 0.21%0.00% 0.15% 0.70% El Nido 0.55% 0.65% 0.00% 0.16% 0.69% San Vicente 0.33% 0.31% 0.00% 0.31% 0.41% Bataraza 0.42% 0.34%0.00% 0.13% 0.24% Balabac 0.30% 0.21%0.00% 0.15% 0.70% Cagayancillo 0.10% 0.07% 0.00% 0.05% 0.24% Agutaya 0.15% 0.11% 0.00% 0.07% 0.34% BISELCO Area Residential Commercial Industrial Public Bldg. Others Busuanga 7.87% 7.87%7.87% 7.87% 7.87% Coron 76.82% 76.82% 76.82% 76.82% 76.82% Culion 11.75% 11.75% 11.75% 11.75% 11.75% Linapacan 3.55% 3.55% 3.55% 3.55% 3.55%

Table 6.1.8 shows the energy sales forecast from 2004 to 2015 for each municipality in Palawan, which is estimated by the energy sales forecast by consumer type and the share of energy sales for each municipality shown in Table 6.1.4.

6-3 6.1.2 Gross Generation Forecast

Gross generation is calculated using the formula below. The Study uses the system loss rate that NPC-SPUG uses in demand forecasting (see Table 6.1.5). Table 6.1.9 shows the gross generation forecast from 2004 to 2015 by municipality.

Energy Sales (MWh) Gross Generation (MWh) = 1− System Loss Rate

Table 6.1.5 System Loss Rate by Municipality PALECO Area Y 2004 Y 2005 BISELCO Area Y 2004 Y 2005 - Y 2015 - Y 2015 Puerto Princesa City 12% 12% Busuanga 13% 13% Narra 12% 12% Coron 13% 13% Brooke’s Point 12% 12% Culion 10% 10% Cuyo 10% 10% Linapacan 10% 10% Roxas 10% 12% Taytay 10% 12% Araceli 10% 10% El Nido 10% 10% San Vicente 10% 10% Bataraza 12% 12% Balabac 10% 10% Cagayancillo 3% 3% Agutaya 3% 3% Source: NPC-SPUG Note: Including station use, transmission and distribution loss.

6-4 6.1.3 Peak Demand Forecast

Peak demand is calculated using the formula below. The Study uses the load factor for each system in 2001, which was calculated on the basis of actual gross generation and peak demand (see Table 6.1.6). Table 6.1.10 shows the peak demand forecasts from 2004 to 2015 per system.

Gross Generation (MWh) Peak Demand (MW) = Load Factor × 8760 (hours)

Table 6.1.6 Load Factor of each System PALECO Area Load Factor BISELCO Area Load Factor Backbone Grid 0.62 Busuanga* 0.54 Cuyo* 0.37 Coron* 0.54 Roxas* 0.52 Culion** 0.21 Taytay** 0.22 Linapacan** 0.16 Araceli*** 0.24 El Nido** 0.20 San Vicente** 0.13 Balabac**** 0.24 Cagayancillo**** 0.24 Agutaya**** 0.24 Source: NPC-SPUG, PALECO, BISELCO Backbone Grid: Puerto Princesa City*, Narra*, Brooke’s Point*, Bataraza* *24-hour supply **12-hour supply ***8-hour supply ****6-hour supply

6-5 5.17% 5.87% 8.01% AAGR AAGR 12.16% 19.38% 14.28% 12.42% 11.58% 36.78% 15.34% 17.75% 18.25% 14.47% (in MWh) (in 368 9,371 4,089 1,667 5,545 13,979 29,474 14,500 19,838 2015 2015 487,705 517,179 193,670 254,152 313 5,134 8,336 3,665 1,445 13,787 18,738 10,220 23,979 2014 2014 172,673 212,889 423,221 447,200 266 4,753 7,415 3,285 7,472 1,253 13,109 17,699 19,691 2013 2013 153,952 178,325 367,838 387,529 226 4,400 6,596 2,944 5,463 1,086 12,464 16,718 16,315 2012 2012 137,261 149,373 320,216 336,531 942 192 4,074 5,867 2,638 3,994 11,851 15,791 13,633 2011 2011 122,379 125,121 279,216 292,849 817 163 3,772 5,219 2,364 2,920 11,268 14,916 11,483 2010 2010 109,111 104,807 243,874 255,357 708 139 3,492 4,642 2,119 2,135 9,743 97,281 87,791 10,714 14,089 2009 2009 213,367 223,110 614 118 3,233 4,129 1,899 1,561 8,321 86,734 73,538 10,187 13,308 2008 2008 187,000 195,321 2015 by Consumer Type (NPC-SPUG and ECs Area) (NPC-SPUG and ECs Type 2015 by Consumer 532 100 9,686 2,993 3,673 1,702 1,141 7,148 77,330 61,599 12,570 2007 2007 164,178 171,326 85 834 461 9,210 2,771 3,267 1,525 6,172 68,946 51,598 11,873 2006 2006 144,398 150,570 72 610 400 8,757 2,565 2,906 1,367 5,355 61,471 43,221 11,215 2005 2005 127,229 132,584 61 446 347 8,326 2,375 2,585 1,225 4,664 54,806 36,204 10,593 2004 2004 112,304 116,968 Total Sub Total Sub Sub Total Sub PALECO AREA BISELCO AREA BISELCO Table 6.1.7 Energy Sales Forecasts from 2004 to 6.1.7 Energy Table Residential Commercial Industrial Bldg. Public Others Residential Commercial Industrial Bldg. Public Others

6-6 AAGR AAGR 14.16% 14.31% 15.50% 13.77% 14.54% 13.79% 14.27% 15.50% 14.64% 14.90% 14.27% 14.25% 14.36% 14.28% 18.25% 18.25% 18.25% 18.25% 18.25% 14.47% (in MWh) (in 394 602 2,332 3,343 1,041 2,641 1,178 2,788 1,498 1,722 1,178 22,758 29,474 62,388 36,305 13,816 13,778 2015 2015 487,705 517,179 349,415 343 523 847 2,306 1,024 2,400 1,298 1,491 1,024 1,897 2,720 54,136 31,223 12,077 11,945 18,515 23,979 2014 2014 303,431 423,221 447,200 892 892 299 455 696 2,015 2,068 1,126 1,292 1,558 2,233 47,048 26,885 10,568 10,370 15,204 19,691 2013 2013 263,928 367,838 387,529 778 978 778 260 397 576 9,258 9,015 1,764 1,784 1,120 1,291 1,850 40,951 23,180 12,597 16,315 2012 2012 229,953 320,216 336,531 679 850 973 679 227 346 482 8,120 7,848 1,546 1,541 1,079 1,546 35,702 20,012 10,526 13,633 2011 2011 200,693 279,216 292,849 2015 by Municipality (NPC-SPUG and ECs Area) 2015 by Municipality (NPC-SPUG and ECs 593 741 846 593 199 302 909 406 7,130 6,841 1,357 1,333 8,866 1,302 31,176 17,300 11,483 2010 2010 175,463 243,874 255,357 519 646 736 519 174 264 771 344 6,268 5,972 1,192 1,154 7,523 1,105 9,743 27,269 14,976 2009 2009 153,677 213,367 223,110 455 564 641 455 152 231 658 944 294 5,516 5,221 1,049 1,000 6,425 8,321 23,893 12,983 2008 2008 134,839 187,000 195,321 925 399 868 494 560 399 134 203 566 811 253 4,859 4,571 5,519 7,148 20,970 11,271 2007 2007 118,526 164,178 171,326 816 351 754 432 489 351 118 178 488 700 218 9,799 4,285 4,008 4,766 6,172 18,436 2006 2006 104,381 144,398 150,570 721 308 656 379 427 308 103 156 424 607 189 8,533 3,784 3,519 4,135 5,355 Table 6.1.8 Energy Sales Forecasts from 2004 to Sales Forecasts 6.1.8 Energy Table 92,096 16,237 2005 2005 127,229 132,584 91 638 272 571 333 374 272 138 369 529 165 7,442 3,344 3,095 3,601 4,664 81,410 14,326 2004 2004 112,304 116,968 Total Sub Total Sub Sub Total Sub PALECO AREA BISELCO AREA BISELCO Busuanga Coron Culion Linapacan City Princesa Puerto Narra Point Brooke's Cuyo Roxas Taytay Araceli El Nido Vicente San Bataraza Balabac Cagayancillo Agutaya

6-7 AAGR AAGR 14.16% 14.31% 15.50% 13.76% 14.77% 14.02% 14.26% 15.50% 14.65% 14.89% 14.26% 14.23% 14.35% 14.29% 18.25% 18.25% 18.24% 18.25% 18.25% 14.48% (in MWh) (in 406 621 2,680 3,714 1,157 3,002 1,309 3,098 1,664 1,957 1,309 26,158 33,709 70,895 41,256 15,351 15,657 2015 2015 553,588 587,297 397,063 353 540 941 2,620 1,138 2,667 1,442 1,694 1,138 2,181 3,022 61,518 35,481 13,418 13,574 21,281 27,425 2014 2014 344,808 480,391 507,816 991 991 308 469 773 2,290 2,298 1,251 1,468 1,791 2,481 53,463 30,552 11,742 11,784 17,476 22,521 2013 2013 299,918 417,525 440,046 864 864 268 409 641 2,004 1,983 1,086 1,273 1,484 2,056 46,535 26,341 10,287 10,245 14,480 18,661 2012 2012 261,310 363,469 382,130 lity (NPC-SPUG and ECs Area) lity (NPC-SPUG and ECs 754 945 754 234 357 535 9,023 8,918 1,757 1,712 1,106 1,240 1,718 40,570 22,740 12,099 15,592 2011 2011 228,060 316,930 332,522 659 823 961 659 205 312 451 7,922 7,774 1,542 1,481 1,044 1,447 35,428 19,659 10,191 13,133 2010 2010 199,390 276,815 289,948 577 718 837 577 179 272 886 383 6,964 6,787 1,355 1,282 8,647 1,228 30,988 17,018 11,144 2009 2009 174,633 242,187 253,331 506 627 729 506 157 238 757 327 6,128 5,933 1,192 1,111 7,385 1,049 9,518 27,151 14,753 2008 2008 153,226 212,257 221,775 sts from 2004 to 2015 by Municipa 444 964 548 636 444 138 209 650 901 281 5,399 5,195 1,051 6,344 8,176 23,829 12,808 2007 2007 134,689 186,354 194,530 927 390 838 480 555 390 121 183 561 778 242 4,762 4,555 5,478 7,059 20,950 11,136 2006 2006 118,615 163,902 170,961 819 343 729 421 485 343 107 161 487 675 210 9,697 4,204 3,999 4,753 6,125 18,452 2005 2005 104,654 144,414 150,539 94 709 302 635 370 425 302 142 424 588 183 8,456 3,716 3,439 4,139 5,334 92,511 16,279 2004 2004 127,380 132,714 Table 6.1.9 Gross Generation Foreca Table Total Sub Total Sub Sub Total Sub PALECO AREA BISELCO AREA BISELCO Busuanga Coron Culion Linapacan City Princesa Puerto Narra Point Brooke's Cuyo Roxas Taytay Araceli El Nido Vicente San Bataraza Balabac Cagayancillo Agutaya

6-8 - - (in kW) AAGR AAGR 14.66% 13.76% 14.29% 15.50% 14.64% 14.29% 14.26% 14.41% 14.14% 18.23% 18.25% 18.23% 18.27% 18.25% 14.40% 630 630 195 299 568 817 - - 4,758 1,761 1,412 5,552 2,045 8,982 96,828 2015 2015 106,513 115,495 548 548 170 260 463 664 - - 4,159 1,516 1,224 4,517 1,664 7,308 84,011 92,436 99,744 2014 2014 477 477 148 226 380 546 - - 3,639 1,306 1,062 3,709 1,366 6,001 73,005 80,340 86,341 2013 2013 416 922 416 129 197 315 452 - - 3,188 1,127 3,073 1,132 4,972 63,545 69,940 74,912 2012 2012 363 973 802 363 113 172 263 946 378 - - 2,797 2,568 4,155 55,402 60,985 65,140 2011 2011 99 317 842 698 317 150 221 797 318 - - 2,455 2,163 3,499 48,385 53,263 56,762 2010 2010 86 188 676 270 278 729 609 278 131 2015 by Municipality (NPC-SPUG and ECs Area) 2015 by Municipality (NPC-SPUG and ECs - - 1,835 2,969 2,158 49,567 46,598 42,329 2009 2009 76 244 632 532 244 115 161 578 231 - - 1,899 1,567 2,537 37,096 40,838 43,375 2008 2008 66 214 548 465 214 101 138 496 198 - - 1,673 1,346 2,178 32,568 35,849 38,027 2007 2007 58 88 188 476 407 188 119 428 171 - - 1,476 1,163 1,881 28,644 31,525 33,406 2006 2006 51 77 165 414 357 165 103 372 148 - - 1,303 1,009 1,632 25,239 27,771 29,403 2005 2005 onnected to the backbone-grid in 2005. in backbone-grid the to onnected 45 68 90 758 373 145 361 314 145 878 324 129 1,152 1,421 21,505 24,866 26,287 2004 2004 Table 6.1.10 Peak Demand Forecasts from 2004 to 6.1.10 Table Total Sub Total Sub Sub Total Sub PALECO AREA BISELCO AREA BISELCO *The backbone-grid includes Puerto Princesa City, Narra, Brooke's Point, and Bataraza. and Point, Brooke's Narra, City, Princesa Puerto includes backbone-grid *The **Roxas and Taytay will be c Busuanga Coron Culion Linapacan Grid* Backbone Cuyo Roxas** Taytay** Araceli El Nido Vicente San Balabac Cagayancillo Agutaya

6-9 Demand Forecast (NPC-SPUG and ECs Area)

Energy Sales Gross Generation Peak Demand

700,000 140,000 Gross Gen: 587,297 MWh Peak Demand: 115,495 kW 600,000 120,000

500,000 100,000 Energy Sales: 517,179 MWh 400,000 80,000 kW MWh 300,000 60,000 Historical Forecast 200,000 40,000

100,000 20,000

0 0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 6.1.1 Results of Power Demand Forecast (NPC-SPUG and ECs Area)

6.1.4 Demand Forecast Adjustment based on Results of Screening

The results of the screening of electrification methods mentioned in Section 5.4.3 identified that it is optimum for the barangays listed below to employ an EC-grid expansion method.

Table 6.1.11 and Table 6.1.12 show the barangays electrified with EC-grid expansion using the Base scenario and the Reliability-oriented scenario5. Regarding the supply hour conditions for estimating potential demand of these barangays, a 24-hour supply is assumed instead of a 6-hour supply, because these barangays are supplied with electricity from EC-grids that offer a 24-hour electricity supply.

Table 6.1.11 List of Barangays Electrified by EC-grid Extension (Base Scenario)

Municipality Barangay Potential HH Target HH Demand Energy Sales Gross Gen. EC-Grid Name Name 2015 (Center, 2006) (kW) (MWh) (MWh) Name Malihud 522 183 19.4 74.66 84.84 BATARAZA Bulalacao (a) 543 190 20.14 77.52 88.09 Tarusan 1093 383 40.6 156.26 177.57 BROOKE'S POINT Imulnod 480 168 17.81 68.54 77.89 BACK BONE PUERTO PRINCESA CITY (CAPITALBabuyan 695 209 22.15 85.27 96.9 QUESON Malatgao (b) 622 218 23.11 88.94 101.07 BACK BONE GRID TOTAL ADD 3955 1351 143 551 627

5 The result of the environment-friendly scenario is the same as the base scenario.

6-10 Table 6.1.12 List of Barangays Electrified by EC-Grid Extension (Reliability-Oriented Scenario)

Municipality Barangay Potential HH Target HH Demand Energy Sales Gross Gen. EC-Grid Name Name 2015 (Center, 2006) (kW) (MWh) (MWh) Name ABORLAN Sagpangan 470 165 17.49 67.32 76.5 Malihud 522 183 19.4 74.66 84.84 Bulalacao (a) 543 191 20.25 77.93 88.56 Tarusan 1093 383 40.6 156.26 177.57 Culandanum (b) 1170 410 43.46 167.28 190.09 Sandoval (a) 829 291 30.85 118.73 134.92 Ocayan 559 196 20.78 79.97 90.88 BATARAZA Rio Tuba 2845 996 105.58 406.37 461.78 Taratak 574 201 21.31 82.01 93.19 Sumbiling 824 289 30.63 117.91 133.99 Iwahig 691 242 25.65 98.74 112.2 Igang igang 412 145 15.37 59.16 67.23 Sarong 607 213 22.58 86.9 98.75 BROOKES POINT Imulnod 480 168 17.81 68.54 77.89 Babuyan 695 209 22.15 85.27 96.9 San Rafael (b) 608 213 22.58 86.9 98.75 Tanabag 174 61 6.47 24.89 28.28 Conception (c) 404 142 15.05 57.94 65.84 PPC Binduyan 315 111 11.77 45.29 51.47 Langogan 613 215 22.79 87.72 99.68 Bahile 756 265 28.09 108.12 122.86 Macarascas 516 181 19.19 73.85 83.92 Malatgao (b) 622 218 23.11 88.94 101.07 QUEZON Kalatagbak 420 147 15.58 59.98 68.16 BACK BONE San Nicolas (c) 158 56 5.94 22.85 25.97 Sandoval (c) 368 129 13.67 52.63 59.81 Santo Tomas (Iraan) 170 60 6.36 24.48 27.82 Dumarao 525 184 19.5 75.07 85.31 Mendoza 307 108 11.45 44.06 50.07 Tumarabong 717 251 26.61 102.41 116.38 ROXAS San Isidro (c) 121 43 4.56 17.54 19.93 Caramay 540 189 20.03 77.11 87.63 Salvacion (b) 148 52 5.51 21.22 24.11 Rizal (b) 177 62 6.57 25.3 28.75 Nicanor Zabara 372 131 13.89 53.45 60.74 San Miguel (b) 209 74 7.84 30.19 34.31 Pulot Interior (Pulot II) 586 206 21.84 84.05 95.51 Labog 957 335 35.51 136.68 155.32 SOFRONIO ESPANOLA Punang 732 257 27.24 104.86 119.16 Iraray 703 247 26.18 100.78 114.52 New Guinlo 845 296 31.38 120.77 137.24 Old Guinlo 182 64 6.78 26.11 29.67 Libertad 437 153 16.22 62.42 70.93 TAYTAY Paglaum 458 161 17.07 65.69 74.65 Talog 240 84 8.9 34.27 38.94 Calawag 1060 364 38.58 148.51 168.76 BACK BONE GRID TOTAL ADD 26754 9341 990 3811 4331 Marcilla 318 105 11.13 42.84 49.24 CORON San Jose (a) 301 99 10.49 40.39 46.43 BUSUANGA BUSUANGA GRID TOTAL ADD 619 204 22 83 96 Villa Libertad 434 152 16.11 62.02 68.91 Pasadena 430 151 16.01 61.61 68.46 Barotuan 635 223 23.64 90.98 101.09 EL NIDO Bucana 1378 483 51.2 197.06 218.96 EL NIDO Teneguiban 1015 356 37.74 145.25 161.39 San Fernando 525 184 19.5 75.07 83.41 Sibartan 440 154 16.32 62.83 69.81 EL NIDO GRID TOTAL ADD 4857 1703 181 695 772 SAN VICENTE ADD Santo Nino (c) 237 66 7 27 30 SAN VICENTE

Tables 6.1.13 through 6.1.18 show the revised EC-grid demand forecasts that consist of the demand forecasts of Section 5.2.2 and the potential power demand of the barangays electrified by EC-grid extension mentioned above. In this connection, the potential demand is allocated between twelve years from 2004 to 2015.

6-11 AAGR AAGR 14.16% 14.32% 15.51% 13.77% 14.54% 13.79% 14.27% 15.50% 14.64% 15.92% 14.27% 14.25% 14.36% 14.29% 18.25% 18.25% 18.25% 18.25% 18.25% 14.48% (in MWh) (in 394 602 2,332 3,343 1,041 2,641 1,178 2,788 1,498 2,030 1,178 22,758 29,474 62,477 36,374 13,816 13,778 2015 2015 488,256 517,730 349,500 343 523 847 2,306 1,024 2,400 1,298 1,774 1,024 1,897 2,720 54,218 31,286 12,077 11,945 18,515 23,979 2014 2014 303,509 423,727 447,706 892 892 299 455 696 2,015 2,068 1,126 1,550 1,558 2,233 47,122 26,942 10,568 10,370 15,204 19,691 2013 2013 263,999 368,298 387,989 778 978 778 260 397 576 9,258 9,015 1,764 1,784 1,352 1,291 1,850 41,018 23,231 12,597 16,315 2012 2012 230,017 320,630 336,945 679 850 679 227 346 482 8,120 7,848 1,546 1,541 1,180 1,079 1,546 35,761 20,057 10,526 13,633 2011 2011 200,750 279,584 293,217 593 741 593 199 302 909 406 7,130 6,841 1,357 1,333 1,027 8,866 1,302 31,228 17,339 11,483 2010 2010 cipality (NPC-SPUG and ECs Area, Base Scenario) Area, Base Scenario) cipality (NPC-SPUG and ECs 175,513 244,196 255,679 519 646 892 519 174 264 771 344 6,268 5,972 1,192 1,154 7,523 1,105 9,743 27,313 15,009 2009 2009 153,720 213,643 223,386 455 564 771 455 152 231 658 944 294 5,516 5,221 1,049 1,000 6,425 8,321 23,930 13,010 2008 2008 134,875 187,230 195,551 925 399 868 494 664 399 134 203 566 811 253 4,859 4,571 5,519 7,148 20,999 11,293 2007 2007 118,555 164,362 171,510 816 351 754 432 567 351 118 178 488 700 218 9,815 4,285 4,008 4,766 6,172 18,458 2006 2006 104,403 144,536 150,708 721 308 656 379 479 308 103 156 424 607 189 8,544 3,784 3,519 4,135 5,355 92,111 16,251 2005 2005 127,321 132,676 91 638 272 571 333 400 272 138 369 529 165 7,447 3,344 3,095 3,601 4,664 81,418 14,333 2004 2004 112,350 117,014 Table 6.1.13 Energy Sales Forecasts from 2004 to 2015 by Muni Energy 6.1.13 Table Total Sub Total Sub Sub Total Sub PALECO AREA BISELCO AREA BISELCO Busuanga Coron Culion Linapacan City Princesa Puerto Narra Point Brooke's Cuyo Roxas Taytay Araceli El Nido Vicente San Bataraza Balabac Cagayancillo Agutaya

6-12 AAGR AAGR 14.16% 14.32% 15.51% 13.76% 14.77% 14.02% 14.26% 15.50% 14.65% 15.93% 14.26% 14.23% 14.35% 14.30% 18.25% 18.25% 18.24% 18.25% 18.25% 14.48% (in MWh) (in 406 621 2,680 3,714 1,157 3,002 1,309 3,098 1,664 2,308 1,309 26,158 33,709 70,996 41,334 15,351 15,657 2015 2015 554,215 587,924 397,160 353 540 941 2,620 1,138 2,667 1,442 2,015 1,138 2,181 3,022 61,610 35,552 13,418 13,574 21,281 27,425 2014 2014 344,896 480,963 508,388 991 991 308 469 773 ECs Area, Base Scenario) ECs 2,290 2,298 1,251 1,760 1,791 2,481 53,546 30,617 11,742 11,784 17,476 22,521 2013 2013 299,998 418,045 440,566 864 864 268 409 641 2,004 1,983 1,086 1,536 1,484 2,056 46,609 26,400 10,287 10,245 14,480 18,661 2012 2012 261,382 363,937 382,598 754 945 754 234 357 535 9,023 8,918 1,757 1,712 1,339 1,240 1,718 40,636 22,793 12,099 15,592 2011 2011 228,124 317,346 332,938 659 823 659 205 312 451 7,922 7,774 1,542 1,481 1,165 1,044 1,447 35,486 19,705 10,191 13,133 2010 2010 199,446 277,179 290,312 Municipality (NPC-SPUG and 577 718 577 179 272 886 383 6,964 6,787 1,355 1,282 1,011 8,647 1,228 31,038 17,058 11,144 2009 2009 174,681 242,499 253,643 506 627 874 506 157 238 757 327 6,128 5,933 1,192 1,111 7,385 1,049 9,518 27,193 14,786 2008 2008 153,266 212,517 222,035 444 964 548 752 444 138 209 650 901 281 5,399 5,195 1,051 6,344 8,176 23,863 12,834 2007 2007 134,721 186,562 194,738 927 390 838 480 642 390 121 183 561 778 242 4,762 4,555 5,478 7,059 20,975 11,156 2006 2006 118,639 164,058 171,117 819 343 729 421 543 343 107 161 487 675 210 9,710 4,204 3,999 4,753 6,125 18,469 2005 2005 104,670 144,518 150,643 94 709 302 635 370 454 302 142 424 588 183 8,462 3,716 3,439 4,139 5,334 92,519 16,288 2004 2004 127,432 132,766 Total Table 6.1.14 Gross Generation Forecasts from 2004 to 2015 by Gross Generation Forecasts from 2004 6.1.14 Table Sub Total Sub Sub Total Sub PALECO AREA BISELCO AREA BISELCO Busuanga Coron Culion Linapacan City Princesa Puerto Narra Point Brooke's Cuyo Roxas Taytay Araceli El Nido Vicente San Bataraza Balabac Cagayancillo Agutaya

6-13 - - (in kW) AAGR AAGR 14.67% 13.76% 14.29% 15.50% 14.64% 14.29% 14.26% 14.41% 14.15% 18.23% 18.25% 18.23% 18.27% 18.25% 14.41% 630 630 195 299 568 817 - - 4,758 1,761 1,412 5,552 2,045 8,982 96,971 2015 2015 106,656 115,638 548 548 170 260 463 664 - - 4,159 1,516 1,224 4,517 1,664 7,308 84,143 92,568 99,876 2014 2014 477 477 148 226 380 546 - - 3,639 1,306 1,062 3,709 1,366 6,001 73,125 80,460 86,461 2013 2013 416 922 416 129 197 315 452 - - 3,188 1,127 3,073 1,132 4,972 63,653 70,048 75,020 2012 2012 363 973 802 363 113 172 263 946 378 - - 2,797 2,568 4,155 55,498 61,081 65,236 2011 2011 99 317 842 698 317 150 221 797 318 - - 2,455 2,163 3,499 48,469 53,347 56,846 cipality (NPC-SPUG and ECs Area, Base Scenario) Area, Base Scenario) cipality (NPC-SPUG and ECs 2010 2010 86 188 676 270 278 729 609 278 131 - - 1,835 2,969 2,158 49,639 46,670 42,401 2009 2009 76 244 632 532 244 115 161 578 231 - - 1,899 1,567 2,537 37,156 40,898 43,435 2008 2008 66 214 548 465 214 101 138 496 198 - - 1,673 1,346 2,178 32,616 35,897 38,075 2007 2007 58 88 188 476 407 188 119 428 171 - - 1,476 1,163 1,881 28,680 31,561 33,442 2006 2006 51 77 165 414 357 165 103 372 148 - - 1,303 1,009 1,632 25,263 27,795 29,427 2005 2005 onnected to the backbone-grid in 2005. in backbone-grid the to onnected 45 68 90 758 373 145 361 314 145 878 324 129 1,152 1,421 21,517 24,878 26,299 2004 2004 Table 6.1.15 Peak Demand Forecasts from 2004 to 2015 by Muni 6.1.15 Table Total Sub Total Sub Sub Total Sub PALECO AREA BISELCO AREA BISELCO *The backbone-grid includes Puerto Princesa City, Narra, Brooke's Point, and Bataraza. and Point, Brooke's Narra, City, Princesa Puerto includes backbone-grid *The **Roxas and Taytay will be c Busuanga Coron Culion Linapacan Grid* Backbone Cuyo Roxas** Taytay** Araceli El Nido Vicente San Balabac Cagayancillo Agutaya

6-14 AAGR AAGR 14.17% 14.33% 15.56% 13.77% 14.95% 15.45% 14.27% 16.83% 14.77% 17.52% 14.27% 14.25% 14.36% 14.34% 18.25% 18.26% 18.25% 18.25% 18.26% 14.53% (in MWh) (in 394 602 2,332 3,343 1,041 3,099 1,178 3,483 1,525 3,248 1,178 22,841 29,557 62,604 36,800 13,816 14,324 2015 2015 492,238 521,795 349,985 343 523 847 2,723 1,024 3,038 1,320 2,895 1,024 1,897 2,720 54,335 31,678 12,077 12,443 18,592 24,056 2014 2014 303,956 427,379 451,435 892 892 299 455 696 2,390 2,648 1,146 2,574 1,558 2,233 47,229 27,300 10,568 10,818 15,274 19,761 2013 2013 264,407 371,618 391,379 Area, Reliability-Oriented Scenario) 778 996 778 260 397 576 9,258 9,413 2,097 2,306 2,279 1,291 1,850 41,115 23,555 12,660 16,378 2012 2012 230,386 323,618 339,996 679 866 679 227 346 482 8,120 8,196 1,837 2,005 2,010 1,079 1,546 35,848 20,347 10,582 13,689 2011 2011 201,080 282,240 295,929 593 755 593 199 302 909 406 7,130 7,139 1,606 1,739 1,760 8,915 1,302 31,305 17,595 11,532 2010 2010 175,804 246,520 258,052 519 658 519 174 264 771 344 6,268 6,220 1,400 1,502 1,527 7,565 1,105 9,785 27,380 15,231 2009 2009 153,972 215,635 225,420 455 574 455 152 231 658 944 294 by Municipality (NPC-SPUG and ECs 5,516 5,420 1,215 1,290 1,309 6,460 8,356 23,987 13,198 2008 2008 135,087 188,890 197,246 399 502 399 134 203 566 811 253 4,859 4,720 1,050 1,100 1,105 5,547 7,176 21,046 11,446 2007 2007 118,728 165,690 172,866 899 351 928 438 911 351 118 178 488 700 218 9,934 4,285 4,107 4,787 6,193 18,495 2006 2006 104,537 145,532 151,725 casts from 2004 to 2015 763 308 772 383 726 308 103 156 424 607 189 8,628 3,784 3,568 4,149 5,369 92,206 16,278 2005 2005 127,985 133,354 91 638 272 629 335 550 272 138 369 529 165 7,497 3,344 3,095 3,608 4,671 81,473 14,350 2004 2004 112,682 117,353 Total Sub Total Sub Sub Total Sub PALECO AREA BISELCO AREA BISELCO Table 6.1.16 Energy Sales Fore 6.1.16 Energy Table Busuanga Coron Culion Linapacan City Princesa Puerto Narra Point Brooke's Cuyo Roxas Taytay Araceli El Nido Vicente San Bataraza Balabac Cagayancillo Agutaya

6-15 o) AAGR AAGR 14.17% 14.33% 15.56% 13.76% 15.18% 15.69% 14.26% 16.83% 14.78% 17.54% 14.26% 14.23% 14.35% 14.35% 18.25% 18.27% 18.24% 18.25% 18.26% 14.54% (in MWh) (in 406 621 2,680 3,714 1,157 3,522 1,309 3,870 1,694 3,691 1,309 nted Scenari 26,254 33,805 71,141 41,818 15,351 16,278 2015 2015 558,721 592,526 397,711 353 540 941 3,092 1,138 3,371 1,470 3,290 1,138 2,181 3,022 61,744 35,998 13,418 14,139 21,369 27,513 2014 2014 345,403 485,094 512,607 Reliability-Orie 991 991 308 469 773 2,715 2,938 1,276 2,924 1,791 2,481 53,669 31,024 11,742 12,292 17,556 22,601 2013 2013 300,461 421,800 444,401 864 864 268 409 641 2,382 2,559 1,108 2,589 1,484 2,056 46,721 26,767 10,287 10,697 14,552 18,733 2012 2012 261,801 367,316 386,049 754 964 754 234 357 535 9,023 9,314 2,088 2,224 2,282 1,240 1,718 40,736 23,120 12,163 15,656 2011 2011 228,499 320,349 336,005 659 839 659 205 312 451 7,922 8,114 1,826 1,929 1,997 1,044 1,447 35,574 19,994 10,247 13,189 2010 2010 199,776 279,806 292,995 lity (NPC-SPUG and ECs Area, lity (NPC-SPUG and ECs 577 731 577 179 272 886 383 6,964 7,070 1,592 1,666 1,734 8,695 1,228 31,114 17,307 11,192 2009 2009 174,967 244,750 255,942 506 637 506 157 238 757 327 6,128 6,160 1,381 1,431 1,486 7,425 1,049 9,558 27,257 14,997 2008 2008 153,508 214,392 223,950 444 556 444 138 209 650 901 281 5,399 5,365 1,193 1,220 1,254 6,376 8,208 23,915 13,006 2007 2007 134,919 188,062 196,270 2004 to 2015 by Municipa 390 486 390 121 183 561 778 242 4,762 4,668 1,022 1,030 1,033 5,502 7,083 21,016 11,289 2006 2006 118,793 165,183 172,266 867 343 857 425 823 343 107 161 487 675 210 9,805 4,204 4,056 4,769 6,141 18,498 2005 2005 104,779 145,268 151,409 on Forecasts from 94 709 302 699 372 624 302 142 424 588 183 8,519 3,716 3,439 4,147 5,342 92,584 16,305 2004 2004 127,807 133,149 Total Sub Total Sub Sub Total Sub PALECO AREA BISELCO AREA BISELCO Table 6.1.17 Gross Generati Table Busuanga Coron Culion Linapacan City Princesa Puerto Narra Point Brooke's Cuyo Roxas Taytay Araceli El Nido Vicente San Bataraza Balabac Cagayancillo Agutaya

6-16 - - (in kW) AAGR AAGR 14.72% 13.76% 14.29% 16.10% 14.70% 14.29% 14.26% 14.41% 14.21% 18.23% 18.28% 18.23% 18.27% 18.27% 14.47% 630 630 195 299 568 817 - - 4,758 1,942 1,419 5,574 2,045 9,004 97,818 2015 2015 107,691 116,695 iented Scenario) 548 548 170 260 463 664 - - 4,159 1,681 1,230 4,537 1,664 7,328 84,924 93,520 2014 2014 100,848 477 477 148 226 380 546 - - 3,639 1,456 1,067 3,727 1,366 6,019 73,835 81,325 87,344 2013 2013 ea, Reliability-Or 416 926 416 129 197 315 452 - - 3,188 1,262 3,089 1,132 4,988 64,292 70,826 75,814 2012 2012 363 805 363 113 172 263 946 378 - - 2,797 1,093 2,582 4,169 56,066 61,772 65,941 2011 2011 99 317 947 700 317 150 221 797 318 - - 2,455 2,175 3,511 48,966 53,951 57,462 2010 2010 86 188 676 270 278 819 610 278 131 - - 1,845 2,979 2,158 50,166 47,187 42,827 2009 2009 Municipality (NPC-SPUG and ECs Ar and ECs Municipality (NPC-SPUG 76 244 707 532 244 115 161 578 231 - - 1,899 1,575 2,545 37,511 41,328 43,873 2008 2008 66 214 608 465 214 101 138 496 198 - - 1,673 1,352 2,184 32,900 36,241 38,425 2007 2007 58 88 188 521 407 188 119 428 171 - - 1,476 1,167 1,885 28,893 31,819 33,704 2006 2006 s from 2004 to 2015 by 51 77 165 444 357 165 103 372 148 - - 1,303 1,011 1,634 25,405 27,967 29,601 2005 2005 onnected to the backbone-grid in 2005. in backbone-grid the to onnected 45 68 90 758 373 145 376 314 145 879 324 129 1,152 1,422 21,588 24,964 26,386 2004 2004 Total Sub Total Sub Sub Total Sub Table 6.1.18 Peak Demand Forecast 6.1.18 Peak Demand Table PALECO AREA BISELCO AREA BISELCO *The backbone-grid includes Puerto Princesa City, Narra, Brooke's Point, and Bataraza. and Point, Brooke's Narra, City, Princesa Puerto includes backbone-grid *The **Roxas and Taytay will be c Busuanga Coron Culion Linapacan Grid* Backbone Cuyo Roxas** Taytay** Araceli El Nido Vicente San Balabac Cagayancillo Agutaya

6-17 6.2 Technical Study on the EC-Grid Power Development Plan

6.2.1 Basic Policy for the EC-Grid Power Development Plan

The EC-grid Power Development Plan will be established based on the demand forecasts including not only existing grid demand but also newly connected demand coming from the barangay electrification plan. The EC-grid defined here contains the backbone grid (Brooke’s Point – Narra - Puerto Princesa City – Roxas – Taytay) and 10 isolated grids. The system capacity of the backbone grid accounts for more than 80% of all grid demand in Palawan. Furthermore, it consists of several power plants and transmission facilities. Therefore, the power development planning method applied in the Philippine main grid should also be adopted for the planning in the backbone grid. On the other hand, each of the isolated grids will have kept the same power supplying style, which composes of only a generator and distribution lines for the time being. Therefore, only a generation development plan to meet the forecasted demand should be needed for the isolated grids. It is technically possible to interconnect between the backbone grid and other isolated grids, for example with a submarine cable. However, it is obvious that such a project is only a dream when considering the extremely expensive costs that are associated. Instead of an interconnection project, the transfer of a generator in the backbone grid system may become a good option, because a small generator in the backbone grid system tends to be more useful in a small isolated grid. For this reason, the power development plan for the EC-grids shall be separated for the backbone grid and for isolated grids. In addition, the possibility of transferring generators to the isolated grids from the backbone grid shall be studied as one option for the optimal power development plan.

(1) Basic policy for the generation development plan of the backbone grid In order to formulate an optimal generator development plan, the study shall be conducted based on the following basic policies.

(i) Optimization function should be “Least Cost” Several different scenarios can be applied as an objective function for the optimal master plan. But the basic policy should be "least cost", under the LOLP target, environmental or other such restrictions. In the detailed study, "WASP-IV" is used for the optimization of the generation development plan, since this software is able to consider those restrictions sufficiently.

(ii) Only diesel and hydropower should be considered as a candidate plant types A diesel generator is still the most applicable generator type in Palawan. According to the mini and micro hydropower potential survey, several potential sites seem to be listed as

6-18 candidates. But other generator types popular in the Philippine main grid, such as a gas turbine, may have no chance even if this Master Plan covers considerations up to 2015. Because the power system capacity will still be small and the infrastructure of fuel transportation may still be restricted. Therefore, only diesel and hydropower generators should be treated as candidates to be developed in this Master Plan. Incidentally, the locations of the potential sites can be specified, while the locations of diesel power plants to be developed are not specified even in the generation development plan of NPC-SPUG. This derives from the political matter that a new generator should be basically developed by the private sector. Therefore, some typical locations suitable for a diesel power plant shall be studied in the transmission development plan.

(iii) Bunker C fuel is prohibited in the base scenario. Though SOx emission issues affect not only this Master Plan, but also the master plan all over the Philippines, diesel generation using bunker C fuel cannot be adopted as a candidate due to the resulting violation of environmental laws. Therefore, the fuel for newly developed generators is assumed to be 'diesel' in the base scenario. However, the impact of using bunker C fuel shall be studied as a sensitive analysis in the Master Plan.

(2) Basic policy for the transmission development plan of the backbone grid Taking into account the issues regarding transmission facilities and their operations described in Section 3.5.6, a basic policy for the transmission development plan of the backbone grid should include the following direction.

(i) Technical study on the grid expansion of the existing backbone grid The existing backbone grid including on-going projects (Brooke’s Point – Narra - Puerto Princesa City – Roxas - Taytay) will have power system demand of around 97MW and a maximum power flow around 20MW between Irawan S/S and Narra S/S in 2015. Since the transmission capacity of the 69kV transmission line is 54MW, the existing transmission line may have enough capacity until the final year of the Master Plan, and a voltage increase from 69kV to 138kV may not be proposed. On the other hand, the total capacity of the existing transformers in 69/13.8kV substations is 40MVA, which is smaller than the total demand in 2015. Therefore, some additional transformers will be needed especially at Irawan, Narra, and Brooke’s Point S/Ss. Other technical issues may emerge from the detailed study such as voltage, reactive power and short circuit capacity. There is the possibility that those issues demand a further transmission expansion. To cope with those issues, the power system simulation software named "PSS/E" will be used for the technical study. PSS/E is well-known software around the world for power system analysis and it is also used in TRANSCO or DOE for the purpose of formulating the transmission development plan in the Philippine main grid.

6-19 (ii) Technical study on the new extension of the backbone grid According to the NPC-SPUG transmission development plan, two projects for extending the backbone grid are planed. One is the southern extension to Bataraza and the other is the northern extension to El Nido. Moreover, a new substation between Narra S/S and Brooke’s Points S/S was proposed from PALECO for the purpose of supporting stable power supply. In this study, the necessity of those projects shall be verified mainly from the technical viewpoints. Regarding a grid extension to a new power plant, a transmission extension project for a hydropower plant shall be studied concretely because its location can be specified. However a transmission extension project for a diesel power plant shall be examined based on a typical location because its location cannot be estimated as explained in the policy for a generation development plan.

(iii) Technical study on existing system improvement As pointed out in Section 3.5.6, the existing backbone grid has two pressing issues. The first is the need to improve the power system configuration around Puerto Princesa City, and the second is the need to improve the capacity limitation of the Power Barge. The second issue will disappear after the transfer of the Power Barge in 2004. To solve the first issue, an improvement project shall be planed in consideration of other transmission expansion plans, not within the issue itself, because transmission expansion around Puerto Princesa City will be essential to meet the increase in power demand in the near future. So it is supposed to be a more economical way to study this issue in cooperation with those projects.

(3) Basic policy of the power development plan for isolated grids In the ten isolated grids, the basic configuration in which a power plant sends electricity to distribution directly will not be changed until the final year of the Master Plan. For this reason, only a generation development plan shall be studied for those areas. Incidentally, the transfer of existing generators may become a good option because the worth of an existing small generator in the backbone grid becomes lower after an interconnection. Therefore, the transfer option of existing generators from the backbone grid to isolated grids will be considered in the planning.

6.2.2 Procedure of the EC-Grid Power Development Plan

(1) Procedure of the power development plan for the backbone grid The procedure of the power development plan for the backbone grid will be applied basically in the same method as for the Philippine main grid. However, such an orthodox planning procedure has not been applied to the formulation of the power development plan for Palawan until now. This means that there is no example data for power development planning. Therefore this study starts from the collection of primary data and proceeds along the workflow described in Figure 6.2.1. At the same time, the data arranged through the study will be transferred to the related organizations as one of the outcomes.

6-20 Barangay Electrification Plan

Peak Demand & Gross Demand Forecast in the EC-grid Regional Peak Demand Generation (System Total)

Generation Development Plan Transmission Development Plan

Data Collection for Existing Generator Data Collection for Existing Grid

Data Collection for Candidate Generator Data Collection for Expanding

Load Duration Curve Estimation Criteria for Grid Expansion

Determination of Reliability Target (LOLP) Regional Power & Load Balance

Simulation of Power Development Simulation of Power System Analysis

Optimal Generation Development Plan Optimal Transmission Development Plan

Optimal Power Development Plan

Figure 6.2.1 Workflow for the Power Development Plan of the Backbone Grid

In the generation development plan, the load duration curve and target reliability (LOLP) shall be determined as the basic parameters of the Master Plan based on the demand forecasts studied in Section 6.1.3. After that, an optimal generation development plan shall be studied using the power development simulation software “WASP-IV”. In the transmission development plan, power demand by region needed for power flow analysis is estimated based on the demand forecasts. Then an optimal transmission development plan shall be examined using the power system simulation software “PSS/E”. Finally, a generation and transmission development plan shall be merged into the optimal power development plan.

The main procedures adopted for this study are as follows.

(2) Procedure for the estimation of a load duration curve In a generation development plan, the economics are changeable due to the hourly or seasonal fluctuation of power demand. WASP-IV is able to analyze the production costs for each power plant by modifying power demand features into a seasonal load duration curve. Unfortunately, power demand data of the backbone grid, which has no computer system such as SCADA or EMS, has been recorded in handwriting. So the Study team built up a load duration curve based on operation records from January to December of 2003.

6-21 The actual records of power demand include blackout or brownout incidents. Moreover, the load factor of the actual records is unequal to the estimated one for the future. In order to use a generation development plan, a load duration curve is arranged from the original data using the following procedure.

(i) Correction to avoid the influence of blackout After examining the power demand records of daily load curves, records affected by blackouts were corrected from the previous and later weeks’ data. An example of a daily load curve before and after correction is shown in Figure 6.2.2.

20 20 Before Correction After Correction 18 18 16 16

14 14

12 12

10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2

- - 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 01234567891011121314151617181920212223 Figure 6.2.2 Result of Correction to Avoid the Influence of Blackouts

(ii) Correction to adjust the load factor to the forecasted demand In the demand forecast, peak demand is estimated with gross generation and a load factor. However the load factor of the actual records is not always the same as the forecasted one. That's the reason why this correction was necessary to adjust the load factor. The load factor after the correction in (i) was 58.58% in 2003, while the forecasted one was 62.5%. The load duration curve after the adjustment by the load factor is shown in Figure 6.2.3.

100% 90% 80% After adjustment 70% 60% 50% Before adjustment 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Figure 6.2.3 Result of Correction to Adjust the Load Factor

6-22 (iii) Formulation of the seasonal load duration curve WASP-IV has a function to simulate a power development plan with less than 12 terms in each year. In this study, dividing the load duration curve into 2 terms per year is supposed to be reasonable, taking into account the power demand features of the water flow characteristics. The final result of the load duration curve for the generation development plan is shown in Figure 6.2.4.

Load Duration Curve (1st Harf) Load Duration Curve (2nd Harf) 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70%

60% 60%

50% 50%

40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0%

Figure 6.2.4 Seasonal Load Duration Curve for the Generation Development Plan

(3) Procedure for the determination of the target reliability (LOLP) In order to apply an orthodox planning procedure in the Philippine main grid to the backbone grid, consensus of the optimal system reliability, which has been unclear in the missionary electrification area, is seen as being essential. In this section, the procedure for the determination of the target reliability and its trial calculation results are discussed.

(i) Procedure for the determination of the LOLP target In consideration of additional cost for upgrading reliability, benefits to the community and economic conditions of Palawan, optimal system reliability is studied for the transmission and distribution network of the Palawan main island. In general, power system reliability is divided into two components; namely the sufficiency (Adequacy) of regular power generation and transmission and distribution capacity, and the stability (Security) of the network at the time of failure.

Both components are important in a highly developed power system. However, since the electric power system of the province of Palawan is still expanding, the sufficiency of installed generation capacity becomes the more important component. For this reason, the Study team will make an assessment using the following steps, based on the viewpoint of optimum installed capacity (reserve capacity).

6-23 (a) Analysis of reserve capacity and LOLP (Loss-of-Load Probability) The correlation between the reserve capacity (margin) and LOLP is analyzed quantitatively by using the recent data of the generator maintenance interval, generator tripping probability, annual power duration curve and other pertinent data.

(b) Analysis of MC and LOLP After making the quantitative analysis concerning incremental capacity and its marginal cost with the data of fixed cost and variable cost for generator, the correlation between MC and LOLP is analyzed quantitatively in accordance with the result of (a).

(c) Analysis of the optimal power system reliability The optimal power system reliability can be estimated through a comparison between the MC-LOLP curve and the benefit from the reliability improvement if the benefit can be ascertained. In this Study, the opportunity cost named “Energy Not Served (ENS)” in WASP is used as this benefit. The ENS is normally 0.5 to 2.0 $/kWh in Southeast Asian countries. However as these countries decide the optimal LOLP firstly from a political viewpoint, and so the basis of the ENS value is not clear. Therefore, the Study team decides the optimal system reliability in collaboration with the related counterparts in consideration of the result of the sensitivity analysis about the ENS or the standard level of the LOLP in the Philippine grid.

(ii) Assumptions for trial calculation The assumptions used for the trial calculation of LOLP are shown in Table 6.2.1.

Table 6.2.1 Assumptions for the Trial Calculation of LOLP Item Assumption for LOLP Analysis Year 2006 Peak Demand 28.644MW Generation Capacity 30.22MW (Existing) +0-7MW (Expansion) (0.5MW Step Variable) Load Duration Curve Record in 2003 (Jan-Dec) Forced Outage Rate 4%(NPC-SPUG) - 7%(IPP) Maintenance Day 22 days/year (Mid. Speed) – 37 days/year (High Speed) Spinning Reserve 10%, 1MW Energy Not Served Cost 0.5$/kWh Exchange Rate 55PHP/$ Calculation Software WASP-IV

In this trial, the target year for the assessment is 2006, when additional capacity will become necessary. In order to evaluate the relationship between the reliability and capacity reserves, expansion capacity is changed from 0 to 7MW by 0.5MW increments.

In these assumptions, a forced outage rate (FOR) is one of the key factors for the system reliability. FOR is very difficult to estimate, because it is changeable by year or by maintenance conditions. The typical FOR figure is applied to this trial calculation.

6-24 (iii) Trial calculation result of LOLP

(a) Analysis of reserve capacity and LOLP (Loss-of-Load Probability) The trial calculation result for LOLP is shown in Figure 6.2.5. If the reserve ratio goes up, LOLP becomes lower. This relationship is easily conveyed in this graph. The main concern is what target number should be applied to the backbone-grid. In the Philippine main grid, the LOLP target is set at 1day/year, while the target for the reserve margin is also set at 13.2%. According to the study results for the Philippine main grid, which was carried out by another JICA project, 1 day/year of LOLP is equivalent to around 11% in a reserve margin. If the LOLP target is set at 1 day/year in the backbone grid, around 18% in a reserve will be needed, since the required reserve becomes higher when the grid is smaller.

9

8 7 6

5 Target of Philippine Main Grid 4 LOLP: 1 day/year 3 Reserve Ratio: 13.2%

LOLP (Day/Year) 2

1

0 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Reserve Ratio (%) Figure 6.2.5 Trial Calculation Result for Relationship between LOLP and Reserve Ratio

(b) Analysis of MC and LOLP In order to estimate the optimal system reliability, the trial analysis is studied from an economical approach. Figure 6.2.6 shows the relationship between incremental benefit and loss for a different LOLP. In this figure, additional cost includes additional capacity cost, additional operation cost and smaller increase in sales revenue. On the other hand, recovered un-served loss is the worth of recovered social loss, and it is calculated with “recovered un-served energy” multiplied by “Energy Not Served Cost”. In this trial study 0.5$/kWh is applied for the “Energy Not Served Cost”. From this graph, it can be seen that the most economical target for LOLP is around 6 days/year. The figure of 6 days/year is equivalent to approximately 7% of the reserve ratio. This, however, seems to be too low.

6-25 (c) Analysis of the optimal power system reliability Generally speaking, a LOLP target is decided from a political viewpoint, not from an economical viewpoint. Taking into account the limited missionary electrification budget, a LOLP target in the backbone-grid will be more than 1 day/year. However, if the target exceeds 3 days/year, significant brownout will be observed. In conclusion, 2 days/year is recommended for the LOLP target in the backbone-grid. Therefore the technical study hereafter is progressed based on the LOLP target of 2 days/year.

1800 Additional Cost 1600 Recovered Unserved Loss 1400 1200

1000

800 600 (1000$/Year) 400

200 Incremental Benefit & Loss 0 0123456789 LOLP (day/year) Figure 6.2.6 Trial Calculation Result of Optimal LOLP from the Viewpoint of Cost & Benefit

(4) Simulation method of the generator development plan In order to formulate an optimal generation development plan, WASP-IV used all over the world is adopted as the simulation software in this study. WASP-IV can determine the optimal solution by using a dynamic programming method. Furthermore, as it was already introduced to the Department of Energy through another JICA Development Study, the power development plan can be studied with the common software in the Philippines. The feature of the calculation method in WASP-IV is as follows.

(i) Object function The object function inside of WASP-IV is "Least Objective Function: Cost" with restrictions on target reliability. B = SUM (I-S+F+M+U) The cost considered in the object function consists in discounted net present value of capital cost, fuel cost, O&M cost and also un-served I : Capital Cost energy cost. S : Salvage Value Regarding the capital cost, the Salvage Value defined F : Fuel Cost M : O&M Cost (Operation & Maintenance) as the remaining worth of the remaining lifetime makes U : Un-served Energy Cost it possible add considerations for depreciation.

6-26 (ii) Power demand The power demand inside of WASP-IV is expressed with the load duration curve, not with the chronological load curve. By using this load duration curve and the forecasted peak demand, the power demand characteristics for the simulation are generated. The merit ordered dispatching similar to the actual operation is simulated by taking the variable cost of each power plant into consideration. Moreover WASP-IV can make simulations with different load duration curves for each term of the year, because the power demand feature or the water flow characteristics are sometimes different from term by term. Daily Curve Duration Curve load curve Load Duration 1,200 1200 1,000 1000

800 800

600 600 load (MW) demand(MW)

400 400 200 200 0 0 WASP Data Input 1 1325374961738597109121133145157 1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133 145 157 hour Hours Peak Demand Forecast

Visayas demand forecast

3000

2500 2000 1500 peak demand 1000 500 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 year Figure 6.2.7 Data Input Image of Power Demand in WASP-IV

(iii) Generator characteristic WASP-IV can simulate every type of generator, such as hydropower, thermal and nuclear power plants. As for a hydropower plants, the probability of the generator output is expressed with the seasonal data of water flow rate, average output and minimum output. In regards to thermal plants, cost data such as heat value, heat rate, O&M cost (fix, variable) and probabilistic output data (for example forced outage rate, spinning reserve ratio and maintenance day) are input into WASP-IV to calculate an optimal solution for the generation development plan.

(iv) Optimization Firstly, WASP-IV calculates the merit order of each existing power plant based on the variable cost. Secondly, the merit order of candidate plants is calculated in the same way. Finally, the optimal generation development pattern including capital cost of a candidate plant is calculated automatically by using a dynamic programming method.

(5) Simulation method of the transmission development plan In the transmission development plan, the power system simulation software PSS/E is applied for this study. PSS/E is very famous around the world and can calculate every type of power system analysis such as power flow, short-circuit capacity and dynamic stability. PSS/E is also introduced to TRANSCO and DOE. Therefore the result of the transmission development plan in Palawan may be used commonly in the Philippines.

6-27 6.2.3 Technical Study on the Generation Development Plan for the Backbone Grid

(1) Scenario of the generator development plan The scenario of the generation development plan is studied here based on the basic policy described in Section 6.2.1, taking into account the demand forecasts determined in accordance with the three scenario of the barangay electrification plan in Section 5.1.2.

(i) Base scenario The base scenario is defined as the generation development plan based on "Least Cost", which is the same policy as the barangay electrification plan. In the base scenario, the forecasted demand consists of the existing EC-grid demand and newly electrified demand in 6 barangays where the distribution line is extended. Incidentally, only one pattern for the forecasted demand is considered in the EC-grid study, because there is no difference for the EC-grid demand, even if the electrification ratio is changed in the barangay electrification plan after 2006.

(ii) Reliability-oriented scenario The reliability-oriented scenario corresponds to "Reliability-oriented electrification method (Alternative Case 1)" in the barangay electrification plan. In this case, the power demand is slightly bigger than the base scenario, as the number of electrified barangay by distribution line extension becomes 56. Other conditions are the same as those in the base scenario.

(iii) Environment-friendly scenario The environment-friendly scenario corresponds to "Environment-friendly electrification method (Alternative Case 2)" in the barangay electrification plan. In the barangay electrification plan, it is assumed that hydropower and renewable energy are given special weightings in selecting the electrification method, while soft loans are applied only to hydropower in the EC-grid power development plan. Some case studies will be carried out on condition that the discount rate is lower than the NEDA standard of 12%. Other conditions are the same as those in the base scenario.

(iv) Environment deregulation scenario As discussed in the policy for the generation development plan, developing a diesel generator using bunker C fuel is prohibited in the base scenario. However, PDP 2004, which is the power development plan for the Philippine main grid, assumes there will be the development of diesel generators using bunker C fuel. If this issue becomes a big problem throughout the Philippines, there is the possibility that the environment law will deregulated and diesel generators with bunker C fuel become a candidate. Therefore the study will be conducted based on the bunker C fuel in this scenario. Other conditions are the same as those in the base scenario.

Those four scenarios are summarized in Table 6.2.2.

6-28 Table 6.2.2 Scenarios for the Generation Development Plan Scenario System Demand LOLP Diesel Fuel Discount Rate Base Scenario Existing EC-grid Demand 2 days/year Only Diesel 12% (NEDA) + 6 Barangay Demand Reliability-Oriented Existing EC-grid Demand 2 days/year Only Diesel 12% (NEDA) Scenario + 56 Barangay Demand Environment Friendly Existing EC-grid Demand 2 days/year Only Diesel Diesel: 12% (NEDA) Scenario + 6 Barangay Demand Hydro: Discounted Rate Environment Existing EC-grid Demand 2 days/year Bunker C or 12% (NEDA) Deregulation Scenario + 6 Barangay Demand Diesel

After the study of these four scenarios, sensitivity analysis will be conducted against the key assumptions in the base scenario. The items for sensitivity analysis are shown in Table 6.2.3.

Table 6.2.3 Sensitivity Analysis for the Generation Development Plan Scenario Object of Sensitivity Analysis Case Study Base Scenario LOLP 1 day/year, 3 days/year Diesel Plant Construction Cost 30% off from Base Svenario Transfer of Gen Set in Roxas & Taytay DPP Transfer in 2007

(2) Assumptions for the generation development plan

(i) Assumptions for the generation development simulation The presumed parameter for the generator development simulation by WASP-IV is described in Table 6.2.4. The figure of the parameter is determined based on the following direction.

¾ Study year The calculation output of WASP-IV tends to be advantageous to a small generator near the final year of the study, because the capital cost becomes lower. In order to avoid this influence, final year of the study was set at 2020, 5 years longer than the Master Plan period.

¾ No. of periods 2 periods per year are selected, since the power demand feature and hydropower generator characteristics are different between the rainy season and dry season.

¾ LOLP 2 days/year (0.548%) was determined as the reliability target in the base scenario in accordance with the pre-study results. The magnitude of the LOLP target figure will be verified in the sensitivity analysis.

¾ Plant data Plant data is determined based on the monthly operation report (2002-2003) and planning data (2004) by NPC-SPUG.

6-29 Table 6.2.4 Basic Assumptions for the Generator Development Simulation

Category Items Assumption Data Source General Study Year 2003-2020 Index No of Period 2 periods per year No of Hydro Conditions 2 conditions per year LOLP 2 days/year (=0.548%) Depreciation Method Straight Depreciation Method Existing Generator Capacity Past Record of Dependable Capacity NPC-SPUG Monthly Report Plant Heat Rate Past Record of Heat Rate NPC-SPUG Monthly Report Data Fuel Cost Past Record of Fuel Cost NPC-SPUG Monthly Report O&M Cost Planed O&M for Universal Charge NPC-SPUG MEDP 2004 Forced Outage Rate NPC-SPUG : 4% Typical for Diesel Scheduled Maintenance Mid. Speed : 22 days/year (6%) JICA Capacity Building Spinning Reserve 10% Operating Target of NPC-SPUG

(ii) Projects considered in the generation development plan As of January 2004 the projects that were already approved or supposed to be approved by NPC-SPUG were considered in this Master Plan. Table 6.2.5 shows the list of the projects. The transfer of Power Barge 106 from Palawan to Iloilo was suddenly decided in January 2004, because of the urgent need for a countermeasure against the power shortage caused by the restriction of Panay-Negros Interconnection. At the same time, the diesel generator temporarily leased (capacity is not certain as of January in 2004) will be installed inside of the Irawan substation. The contract term of the lease is 1 year, however, the contract may be extended at least in 2006. Therefore, plans in this study call for the removal of this temporary generator in 2006. By the way, the existing generators in Roxas and Taytay can be used in the isolated grids after realizing the backbone transmission. This transfer plan is not considered in the base scenario, but will be evaluated in the sensitivity analysis.

Table 6.2.5 Projects Considered in the Generation Development Plan Year Project Dependable Capacity Remark 2004 Transfer of Power Barge 106 -8.4MW Approved by NPC-SPUG Installation of Temporal Gen Set in Irawan S/S +8.4MW Approved by NPC-SPUG Transfer of Gen Set in Brooke’s Point DPP - Already not operational Transfer of Gen Set in Narra DPP - Already not operational 2006 Removal of Temporal Gen Set in Irawan S/S -8.4MW Supposed by the Study team Remark: The dependable capacity of the temporal genset in Irawan S/S is based on assumptions by the Study team.

6-30 (iii) Candidate generator models for the generation development plan Diesel and hydropower generators are presumed to be the candidate generator types. The assumed specifications of a candidate generator are as follows.

(a) Candidate model for diesel generation The assumed specifications of a diesel generator for the generation development plan are as follows. ¾ Generator capacity 5 types of capacity from 500kWto 20,000kW are prepared, taking economics of scale into consideration. The unit capacity should be lower than from 5% to 10% against the power system capacity in contemplation of the Spinning Reserve Ratio (10%) or frequency dropping influence in the case of generator tripping. As the peak demand in 2015 is estimated at 96,989kW, the unit capacity was selected to be 5,000kW with a maximum of 10,000kW. Available capacity is set at 90% of the rated capacity, because dependable capacity tends to decline year by year.

¾ Construction cost (including interest during construction term) The construction cost is estimated based on the project budget in 2004 by NPC-SPUG, in consideration of the assumed construction cost in the Philippine main grid study assisted by JICA (50MW, 1,140$/kW, without interest). The construction cost should be determined carefully, because this assumption sometimes changes the results dramatically. In this study, the construction cost is calculated from the project budget, because NPC-SPUG has not been dealing with a big generator project recently. According to NPC-SPUG, this budget is calculated under the condition of a reliable generator, such as one made in Europe or Japan. The study has to pay attention to the cost since the construction cost will be reduced if a cheaper generator is adopted. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis will be conducted regarding the construction cost.

¾ Fuel type The fuel type is presumed to be diesel except for the environment deregulation scenario. In the environment deregulation scenario, the fuel type is assumed to be bunker C fuel for a generator with more than 1,500kW.

¾ Fuel cost, heat rate, O&M cost The fuel cost is estimated from the actual records over the 12 months in 2003 by NPC-SPUG. The fuel cost is very different between Puerto Princesa City and the isolated grids where transportation cost is high. In the generation development plan, the location of a candidate diesel generator is not specified, but fuel cost is applied at the level around Puerto Princesa City. Regarding the heat rate, a 500kW generator is determined from the operation records held by NPC-SPUG, while a 1,500kW or greater generator is estimated from the Delta-P IPP model. The O&M cost is estimated from the operation records held by NPC-SPUG.

¾ Plant life Plant life is set at 15 years, from the assumption that the generator life is around 100,000 hours and the capacity factor is around 75%.

6-31 Table 6.2.6 shows the assumptions of candidate generator models for diesel generation.

Table 6.2.6 Candidate Generator Model for Diesel Generation Abbreviation D005 D015 D050 D100 D200 Rated Capacity kW 500 1,500 5,000 10,000 20,000 Capacity by Unit kW 1x500 1x1,500 1x5,000 2x5,000 2x10,000 Dependable Capacity kW 450 1,350 4,500 9,000 18,000 Construction Cost $/kW 1,600 1,452 1,399 1,353 1,310 Except Environment Deregulation Case: Diesel Fuel Type Diesel Environment Deregulation scenario: Bunker C Except Environment Deregulation Case: 3,082 Fuel Cost $/Gcal 3,082 Environment Deregulation Case: 2,097 Heat Rate (at 25%) Kcal/kWh 2,780 2,595 Incremental Heat Rate Kcal/kWh 2,288 1,995 Fixed O&M Cost $/kW-month 8.12 4.86 2.76 2.00 1.45 Variable O&M Cost c/kWh 2.20 Life Time Year 15 Construction Period Year 2

(b) Candidate model for hydropower generation In regards to hydropower generation, as studied in Section 4.1.1, 7 candidate sites where the production cost is reasonable and grid access is feasible are studied in the generation development plan. Among those points, only Babuyan has a reservoir and the others are the run-of-river type. In the case of the run-of-river type, there is the possibility that the output becomes 0MW during drought conditions. In the WASP-IV, the probability of output is calculated based on the water flow probability. The candidate generation model for hydropower is shown in Table 6.2.3. In this table, the data is translated into the WASP-IV format. Among those candidates, only Babuyan will need 3 years for the construction period. This means that the commissioning year will be later than 2007 even if the construction project starts in 2004. Therefore, it is stipulated in the generation development simulation that Babuyan is available later than 2007.

6-32 Table 6.2.7 Candidate Sites for Hydropower Generation Abbreviation BYN BDY1 MTG BRBR TAL CBB BRK BB Barong Batang Location Babuyan Binduyan Malatgao Talakaigan Cabinbin Baraki Barong Batang Installed Capacity KW 5,600 600 2,200 620 990 800 840 6,700 Dependable Capacity KW 5,600 600 2,200 620 990 800 840 6,700 Storage Capacity MWh 50.0 0 Construction Cost $/kW 3,765.9 1,984.4 2,423.4 2,329.6 2,516.8 2,641.0 3,802.1 3,267.5 Period 1-Condition 1 MWh 7,768.0 801.0 3,924.0 770.0 1,800.0 975.0 1,462.0 3,406.0 Period 2-Condition 1 MWh 14,135.0 2,241.0 7,335.0 2,328.0 3,364.0 3282.0 2,914.0 15,956.0 Inflow Energy Period 1-Condition 2 MWh 10,772.0 1,960.0 6,811.0 2066.0 3,124.0 2809.0 2,706.0 11,009.0 Period 2-Condition 2 MWh 16,822.0 2,628.0 9,636.0 2715.0 4336.0 3504.0 3,679.0 28,447.0 Period 1-Condition 1 MWh 6125.0 0 Minimum Period 2-Condition 1 MWh 13116.0 0 6-33 Generation Period 1-Condition 2 MWh 9423.0 0 Period 2-Condition 2 MWh 16067.0 0 Period 1-Condition 1 kW 5600.0 182.9 896.0 175.9 411.1 222.7 333.8 777.7 Average Period 2-Condition 1 kW 5600.0 511.7 1,675.0 531.7 768.2 749.6 665.4 3,643.0 Capacity Period 1-Condition 2 kW 5600.0 447.7 1,556.0 471.8 713.3 641.4 617.9 2,514.0 Period 2-Condition 2 kW 5600.0 600.0 2,200.0 620.0 990.0 800.0 840.0 6495 Fixed O&M Cost $/kW-month 0.89 2.89 Construction Period Year 3 2 Plant Life Year 40

(3) Results of the technical study on the generation development plan

(i) Optimal generation development plan for each scenario

(a) Base scenario The simulation results for a generation development plan in the base scenario are shown in Table 6.2.8.

Table 6.2.8 Simulation Results for the Generation Development Plan (Base Scenario)

Peak Total LOLP Diesel Hydro Year Demand Capacity D005 D015 D050 D100 D200 BYN BRBR MTG TAL CBB BRK BB (kW) (kW) (day/y) 2004 21,517 30,220 0.113 2005 25,263 30,220 1.292 2006 28,680 35,430 1.205 2 1 1 1 1 2007 32,616 38,130 1.898 2 2008 37,156 42,630 1.967 1 2009 42,401 48,230 1.037 1 2010 48,469 53,570 1.643 1 1 2011 55,498 62,570 1.194 1 2012 63,653 71,570 1.179 1 2013 73,125 80,570 1.577 1 2014 84,143 90,920 1.989 1 1 2015 96,971 104,420 1.730 1 1

In the base scenario the generation development plan of Hydropower: 11.05MW (6 sites), Diesel: 79.5MW (Dependable Capacity: 71.55MW), Total: 90.55MW (Dependable Capacity: 82.6MW) is the one with the least cost.

(b) Reliability-oriented scenario The simulation results for a generation development plan in the reliability-oriented scenario are shown in Table 6.2.9. The simulation conditions are the same except for the power demand.

6-34 Table 6.2.9 Simulation Results for the Generation Development Plan (Reliability-Oriented Scenario)

Peak Total LOLP Diesel Hydro Year Demand Capacity (kW) (kW) (day/y) D005 D015 D050 D100 D200 BYN BRBR MTG TAL CBB BRK BB 2004 21,588 30,220 0.120 2005 25,405 30,220 1.402 2006 28,893 35,430 1.340 2 1 1 1 1 2007 32,900 41,030 0.285 1 2008 37,511 42,380 1.595 1 2009 42,827 47,720 1.799 1 1 2010 48,966 56,720 0.993 1 2011 56,066 62,570 1.453 1 1 2012 64,292 71,570 1.431 1 2013 73,835 80,570 1.909 1 2014 84,924 92,270 1.679 2 1 2015 97,818 105,770 1.529 1 1

In the reliability-oriented scenario, the order of the generator development is a little different from the base scenario due to slightly increased demand. At the same time, the amount of developed capacity became a little more than that in the base scenario. Since the reliability-oriented scenario is given almost the same power demand as that in the base scenario, there is no significant difference between these two scenarios.

(c) Environment-friendly scenario In the environment-friendly scenario, assuming the usage of a soft loan only for hydropower generation, the discount rate for the construction cost is changed from 11% to 8%. The simulation results for the generation development plan in the case of an 8% discount rate are shown in Table 6.2.10, and in the case of a 11% discount rate in Table 6.2.11.

Table 6.2.10 Simulation Results for the Generation Development Plan (Environment-Friendly Scenario: Discount Rate=8%)

Peak Total LOLP Diesel Hydro Year Demand Capacity (kW) (kW) (day/y) D005 D015 D050 D100 D200 BYN BRBR MTG TAL CBB BRK BB 2004 21,517 30,220 0.113 2005 25,263 30,220 1.292 2006 28,680 35,430 1.205 2 1 1 1 1 2007 32,616 38,130 1.898 2 2008 37,156 43,730 0.650 1 2009 42,401 48,230 1.037 1 2010 48,469 53,570 1.643 1 1 2011 55,498 64,770 1.522 1 1 2012 63,653 73,770 1.526 1 2013 73,125 84,120 1.369 1 1 2014 84,143 94,470 1.792 1 1 2015 96,971 107,970 1.599 1 1

6-35 Table 6.2.11 Simulation Results for the Generation Development Plan (Environment-Friendly Scenario: Discount Rate=11%)

Peak Total LOLP Diesel Hydro Year Demand Capacity D005 D015 D050 D100 D200 BYN BRBR MTG TAL CBB BRK BB (kW) (kW) (day/y) 2004 21,517 30,220 0.113 2005 25,263 30,220 1.292 2006 28,680 35,430 1.205 2 1 1 1 1 2007 32,616 38,130 1.898 2 2008 37,156 43,730 0.650 1 2009 42,401 48,230 1.037 1 2010 48,469 53,570 1.643 1 1 2011 55,498 62,570 1.194 1 2012 63,653 71,570 1.179 1 2013 73,125 80,570 1.577 1 2014 84,143 90,920 1.989 1 1 2015 96,971 107,970 1.745 1 1 1

Since the economical advantage of hydropower increases, all of the hydropower candidates are to be developed, including Batang Batang, which was not to be developed in the base scenario. Seeing this result from a different angle, the economical inferiority of Batang Batang against a diesel generator is very small. So this inferiority is covered if the discount rate is decreased to under 11%.

(d) Environment deregulation scenario In the environment deregulation scenario, it is presumed that diesel is used for 500kW generators and bunker C fuel is used for 1,500kW and greater generators. The simulation results for the generation development plan in this scenario are shown in Table 6.2.12.

6-36 Table 6.2.12 Simulation Results for the Generation Development Plan (Environment Deregulation Scenario)

Peak Total LOLP Diesel Hydro Year Demand Capacity D005 D015 D050 D100 D200 BYN BRBR MTG TAL CBB BRK BB (kW) (kW) (day/y) 2004 21,517 30,220 0.113 2005 25,263 30,220 1.292 2006 28,680 34,630 1.588 2 1 1 1 2007 32,616 38,130 1.898 2 1 2008 37,156 42,630 1.967 1 2009 42,401 48,230 1.037 1 2010 48,469 53,570 1.643 1 1 2011 55,498 62,570 1.194 1 2012 63,653 71,570 1.179 1 2013 73,125 80,570 1.577 1 2014 84,143 90,920 1.989 1 1 2015 96,971 104,420 1.730 1 1

Although the economical advantage of diesel is improved, the amount of the developed generator capacity until 2015 becomes the same as that for base scenario. This result shows that 6-point hydropower candidates, except Batang Batang, have an economical advantage against a diesel candidate using bunker C fuel. However, SOx environment regulations affect the power development plan including the policy on electric tariffs. Therefore, attention will be given to this issue when the Master Plan is revised.

(ii) Comparison among the scenarios from discounted cash flow Except when the environment-friendly scenario adopts different discount rates, the three scenarios are compared from the viewpoint of a discounted cash flow. The discounted cash flow defined here is based on the object function of WASP-IV; the formula is as follows.

"Capital Cost - Salvage Value (worth of remaining life) + Fuel Cost +O&M Cost"

Figure 6.2.8 shows the yearly and accumulated discounted cash flow in each scenario. It is common that the cost will increase in 2006 because of the removal of the temporary generator. The result in the reliability-oriented scenario is almost the same as the base scenario. The result in the environment deregulation scenario shows that it is the least expensive development plan and there is a significant difference from the other two scenarios. The accumulated discounted cash flow for 12 years, from 2004 to 2015, is $10.54 Million (-8.1%) lower than that of the base scenario. This difference is equivalent to the cost for the environmental protection.

6-37 30 150 BaseScenario(Yearly) ReliabilityOriented(Yearly) EnvironmentDeregulation(Yearly) BaseScenario(Accm.) ReliabilityOriented(Accm.) EnvironmentDeregulation(Accm.) 25

20 100

15 Yearly DCF (M$) 10 50 Accumulated DCF (M$)

5

0 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 6.2.8 Comparison of the Discounted Cash Flow by Scenario

(iii) Sensitivity analysis

(a) Sensitivity analysis of LOLP target The LOLP target in the backbone grid is assumed to be "2 days/year" until here. In this sensitivity analysis, the LOLP target is changed to "1 day/year" and "3 days/year" in the case of the base scenario. Figure 6.2.9 shows the comparison of the LOLP and reserve ratio when the LOLP target is changed.

30,000 3.0 BaseScenario(Reseve kW) LOLP 1d/y (Reseve kW) LOLP 3d/y (Reseve kW) BaseScenario(LOLP d/y) 25,000 LOLP 1d/y (LOLP d/y) LOLP 3d/y (LOLP d/y) 2.5 20,000 2.0 15,000 1.5 10,000 1.0

5,000 0.5 LOLP (day/year)

Reserve Capacity (kW) 0 0.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 6.2.9 Comparison of LOLP and Reserve Ratio

If the LOLP target is set at 3 days/year, reserve capacity becomes lower than the maximum generator unit capacity (Installed Capacity: 5,000kW, Dependable Capacity: 4,500kW) in several years. This result means that the risk of power shortages becomes larger, especially in the case of generator trouble involving the largest unit. On the other hand, if the LOLP target is set at 1 day/year, the amount of the developed

6-38 generator capacity until 2015 becomes 95.55MW, while 90.55MW in the base scenario. Furthermore, reserve capacity will exceed 10MW in the later years when using the 1 day/year scenario. Secondly, the comparison result from discounted cash flow is shown in Figure 6.2.10. 30 150 Base Scenario (Yearly) LOLP 1d/y (Yearly) LOLP 3d/y (Yearly) Base Scenario (Accm.) LOLP 1d/y (Accm.) LOLP 3d/y (Accm.) 25

20 100

15

10 50 Yearly DCF (M$) Accumulated DCF (M$) 5

0 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 6.2.10 Comparison of the Discounted Cash Flow by LOLP Target

If the LOLP target is set at 1 day/year, the accumulated DCF for 12 years from 2004 to 2015 is $2.9Million (+2.2%) higher than that in the base scenario, while in for the 3 day/year scenario it is $1.3Million (-1.0%) lower. Those differences are equivalent to the cost for reliability.

(b) Sensitivity analysis of construction cost for a diesel generators Generally the price of a diesel generator depends on the production maker or its quality. In the base scenario, the construction cost of the candidate diesel generator is presumed to be a reliable one, such as one made in Europe or Japan. In this sensitivity analysis, the construction cost is assumed to be 30% lower than that in the base scenario in order to verify its influence. The assumed construction cost for the sensitivity analysis is shown in Table 6.2.13

Table 6.2.13 Assumed Construction Costs of Diesel Generators for Sensitivity Analysis Abbreviation D005 D015 D050 D100 D200 Rated Capacity kW 500 1,500 5,000 10,000 20,000 Dependable Capacity kW 450 1,350 4,500 9,000 18,000 Construction Cost $/kW 1,120 1,016 979 947 917

This simulation result of the optimal generation development by WASP-IV is the same as the results in the base scenario, although the discounted cash flow is increased. From this result, it can be said that the impact on the construction cost of a diesel generator is not so large at least in the base scenario.

6-39 (c) Sensitivity analysis in the case of transferring the existing generators After the backbone grid extension to Roxas and Taytay, Roxas DPP (Dependable Capacity: 870kW) and Taytay DPP (Dependable Capacity: 550kW), which are operated in the isolated grids, will no longer be essential. Moreover, the production costs of those power plants are higher than the cost of a generator around Puerto Princesa City due to the difference in fuel transportation cost. Therefore the plan to transfer the generators in Roxas DPP and Taytay DPP to the isolated grids is assumed to be reasonable. Nevertheless, the schedule for the generator transfers has to be planed in accordance with the Palawan Backbone Transmission Project for the northern area, because the project will be delayed even if its commissioning is planned in 2004 as explained in Section 3.5.6. For this reason, the commissioning year of the transmission line is assumed to be in 2006 and the transfer of the generators is planed for 2007 in this sensitivity analysis. The simulation results of the generation development plan by WASP-IV are shown in Table 6.2.14.

Table 6.2.14 Simulation Result of Generation Development Plan (Sensitivity Analysis of the Existing Generator Transfer) Peak Total LOLP Diesel Hydro Year Demand Capacity D005 D015 D050 D100 D200 BYN BRBR MTG TAL CBB BRK BB (kW) (kW) (day/y) 2004 21,517 30,220 0.113 2005 25,263 30,220 1.292 2006 28,680 35,430 1.205 2 1 1 1 1 2007 32,616 39,610 0.588 1 2008 37,156 42,310 1.354 2 2009 42,401 47,650 1.511 1 1 2010 48,469 53,500 1.632 1 1 2011 55,498 62,500 1.205 1 2012 63,653 71,500 1.205 1 2013 73,125 80,500 1.613 1 2014 84,143 94,000 0.865 1 1 2015 96,971 104,350 1.719 1 1

In comparison with the base scenario, the year to be developed is changed from 2009 to 2007 for Babuyan and from 2010 to 2009 for Baraki. The total capacity of the generator development becomes 92.05MW (Dependable Capacity: 83.95MW), which is larger than 90.55MW (Dependable Capacity: 82.6MW) in the base scenario because of the reduced existing capacity by the transfer. From the viewpoint of the discounted cash flow including capital cost, the accumulated discounted cash flow in this case is increased by $0.99Million in comparison with the one in the base scenario. This result indicates that there is no advantage if those generators are simply abolished. However, seeing this result only from the perspective of O&M cost, the accumulated discounted cash flow of the O&M cost is decreased by $2.3Million in comparison with the one in the base scenario as shown in Figure 6.2.11. Since the transfer cost per one

6-40 generator is expected to be less than around $0.01 Million, the total transfer cost for 7 generators will be recovered easily. In conclusion, the project to transfer the existing generators in Roxas DPP and Taytay DPP should be included in the Master Plan for the purpose of more economical planning.

DCF of Operation & Maintenance Cost 20 100 BaseScenario(Yearly) GeneratorTransfer(Yearly) 18 BaseScenario(Accm.) GeneratorTransfer(Accm.) 16 14 12 10 50 8 6 Yearly DCF (M$) 4 Accumulated DCF (M$) 2 0 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 6.2.11 Comparison of the Discounted Cash Flow in O&M Cost (Sensitivity Analysis of the Existing Generator Transfer)

(4) Summary of the generation development plan

(i) Summary of the simulation results for the generation development plan The simulation results of the generation development plan in each scenario and each sensitivity analysis are summarized in Table 6.2.15.

6-41 Table 6.2.15 Summary of Results for the Generation Development Plan Additional Dependable Capacity Scenario Implication from Technical Study (2004-2015, MW) Diesel Hydro Base Scenario 71.55 11.05 6 sites of hydro power plant are developed. Reliability-Oriented The total capacity of generator development increases due 72.90 11.05 Scenario to the raised demand. Environment Friendly If a soft loan with interest of less than 11% is applied, all of 68.40 17.75 Scenario the hydro power plants (7 sites) are developed Environment The result is almost the same as that in the Base Scenario. (6 Deregulation Scenario 71.55 11.05 sites of hydro power plants still have an economical advantage in comparison with Bunker C diesel generator.) The accumulated DCF is increased by 2.0%. LOLP 1 day/year 76.05 11.05 Generators with small capacity tend to be developed. The accumulated DCF is decreased by 1.0%. LOLP 3 day/year 70.20 11.05 The reserve ratio becomes lower than the capacity of largest unit in some years. Even if the construction cost is cheaper by 30% than the one Diesel Const. Cost 71.55 11.05 in the Base Scenario, the simulation results for the generator development plan is the same as that in the Base Scenario.

Sensitivity Analysis The transfer of generators in Roxas DPP and Taytay DPP after the accomplishment of Palawan Backbone Gen. Transfer 72.90 11.05 Transmission to the northern part makes the generator development plan more economical.

Taking into account of above results, the generator development policy for the backbone grid should be as follows.

6-42

¾ Generator Development Plan Scenario The demand forecast for the generator development plan is based on the one in the base scenario, because the difference of the forecasted demand coming from the scenario of barangay electrification is not so large. Regarding the concrete project, the on-going projects planed by NPC-SPUG are considered in the Master Plan. Plans call for the existing generators in Roxas DPP and Taytay DPP to be transferred to other isolated grids in 2007. As for the finalized optimal generator development plan, not only the basic scenario, but also an optional scenario including the development of Batang Batang is recommended taking account of the feasibility of the soft loan for a hydropower generation. ¾ SOx Environmental Regulations SOx environmental regulations do not affect the generation development plan since 6 hydropower candidates have an economical advantage over diesel with bunker C fuel. However, it may affect the power development policy including the electric tariff. Therefore, regulation trends should be watched carefully in the rolling plan. ¾ LOLP Target The recommended LOLP target is around 2 days/year in the backbone grid. If the target is set at more than 3 days/year, the risk of power shortage increases because the reserve ratio may become lower than the capacity of the maximum generator unit. On the other hand, if the target is set at 1 day/year, the generation cost increases by 2.2%, and this results in higher supplying cost in Palawan where a subsidy is required from the Philippine main grid.

(ii) Optimization of the generation development plan Up to this point, the generation development plan was discussed based on the simulation result optimized in theory. As the result, for example small generators with 1,500kW capacity were developed in 2004 in the base scenario. This result derives from the calculation method that optimizes the cost during the period until 2020. In order to avoid this issue, the generation development plan is re-optimized into a more practical one. To put it concretely, a new assumption that the diesel generator capacity developed after 2011 is restricted at 5MW.

In the Study, the base scenario is shown in the Master Plan for power development. Table 6.2.16 shows the case of "Base Scenario for the Optimal Generation Development Plan". At the same time, "Option Scenario for the Optimal Generation Development Plan" where soft loans for hydropower generation are considered is shown in Table 6.2.17.

6-43 Table 6.2.16 Generation Development Plan (Base Scenario for the Optimal Generation Development) Peak Total LOLP Diesel Hydro Year Demand Capacity D005 D015 D050 D100 D200 BYN BRBR MTG TAL CBB BRK BB (kW) (kW) (day/y) 2004 21,517 30,220 0.113 2005 25,263 30,220 1.292 2006 28,680 35,430 1.205 2 1 1 1 1 2007 32,616 39,610 0.588 1 2008 37,156 42,310 1.354 2 2009 42,401 47,650 1.511 1 1 2010 48,469 53,500 1.632 1 1 2011 55,498 62,500 1.205 1 2012 63,653 71,500 1.205 1 2013 73,125 80,500 1.613 1 2014 84,143 98,500 0.832 1 2015 96,971 107,500 1.646 1

Table 6.2.17 Generation Development Plan (Option Scenario for the Optimal Generation Development) Peak Total LOLP Diesel Hydro Year Demand Capacity (kW) (kW) (day/y) D005 D015 D050 D100 D200 BYN BRBR MTG TAL CBB BRK BB 2004 21,517 30,220 0.113 2005 25,263 30,220 1.292 2006 28,680 35,430 1.205 2 1 1 1 1 2007 32,616 39,610 0.588 1 2008 37,156 42,310 1.354 2 2009 42,401 47,650 1.511 1 1 2010 48,469 53,500 1.632 1 1 2011 55,498 62,500 1.205 1 2012 63,653 71,500 1.205 1 2013 73,125 80,500 1.613 1 2014 84,143 94,000 0.865 1 1 2015 96,971 109,700 1.172 1 1

6.2.4 Technical Study on Transmission Development Plan for the Backbone Grid

(1) Transmission development plan scenario The scenario of the transmission development plan studied here is based on the basic policy described in Section 6.2.1 and the results of the generation development plan.

(i) Base scenario In the base scenario, the transmission development plan is studied based on the demand-and-supply conditions obtained from "Base Scenario for the Optimal Generation Development". The technical issues in Table 6.2.18 will be also be verified in this study.

6-44 Table 6.2.18 Technical Issues and Related Projects for the Transmission Development Plan Technical Issue Project Existing Grid Expansion Construction of Puerto Princesa S/S Construction of Abo-Abo S/S Additional Transformer (Puerto Princesa City, Narra, Brooke's Point) New Grid Expansion Construction of Bataraza Transmission Line & S/S Construction of El Nido Transmission Line & S/S Improvement of System Configuration Separation of Generator Circuit and Distribution around Puerto Princesa City Circuit

(ii) Option scenario In the Option Scenario, the transmission development plan is studied based on demand and supply conditions obtained from "Option Scenario for the Optimal Generation Development". Since the demand-and-supply conditions are the same as those in the base scenario until 2013, the study will be carried out only on the condition that 2015 is the representative year.

(2) Assumptions for the transmission development plan

(i) Access transmission to a power plant

(a) Access transmission to a hydropower plant The optimal method is to have an access transmission line connected to an existing substation directly, taking account of the system reliability against a system fault. However the construction cost tends to become too much especially in the case that the location of hydropower plant is far from a substation. Therefore, for the access transmission it is presumed that the line is connected to the existing substation if the connecting location is near the substation, while the line is tapped to the existing transmission line in other scenario. As for Cabinbin Hydropower Plant with 800kW capacity, a pre-feasibility study was carried out in the past on the assumption that the power plant is tapped to the existing 13.8kV distribution line at Brooke’s Point. In this study, only Cabinbin is assumed to be constructed in this configuration, because it is the least cost method and sufficiently technically feasible. The geographical location of hydropower plant and the power system diagram is shown in Figure 6.2.12 and Figure 6.2.13.

(b) Access transmission to a diesel power plant As discussed at "Basic Policy for the Generation Development Plan" in Section 6.2.1, the concrete location of the future diesel generator is not specified. But two locations suitable for the generation development can be pointed out on the assumption that the generator is constructed only by NPC-SPUG. These locations are shown on Figure 6.2.14.

¾ Inside of the Irawan substation Inside the Irawan substation is the most suitable location for a land-based diesel power plant, because the Irawan substation has enough land owned by NPC-SPUG and this location is moderately far from the city center of Puerto Princesa City. Furthermore the

6-45 cost for the access transmission is very cheap because the Irawan substation is the base of the backbone grid.

¾ Sta Lucia area The Sta Lucia area is located just in the opposite side from the city center of Puerto Princesa City across the Puerto Princesa Bay. In this location, there is a port that was equipped by a quarry company in the past, but is not used at present. As the port has a water depth of 8ft, a power barge with large capacity can be anchored here. Moreover, the distance from the port to the existing 69kV backbone transmission is only 4.2km. Therefore the Sta Lucia area is the most suitable location for a power barge diesel power plant.

In the transmission development plan of the Study, the location of the developed diesel power plant is presumed to be inside of the Irawan substation, which is the most feasible and suitable location for a land-based diesel power plant.

(ii) Standards for the transmission expansion planning of the backbone grid Since NPC-SPUG recently started the construction of transmission in the missionary electrification area, the standards for the transmission expansion planning have not been clearly determined. In this Master Plan, the transmission development plan will be formulated based on the following standards.

(a) Standard for system reliability The "N-1 rule" is generally adopted as a standard for system reliability in the world including the Philippine main grid. The "N-1 rule" means that no interruptions happen even if one of the transmission facilities becomes out-of-service. However, the present backbone grid cannot meet the "N-1 Rule", because it consists of single transmission lines and single transformers. For this reason, the necessity of transmission development is judged from the condition that all facilities are in service.

(b) Standard for transmission capacity The transmission capacity is usually decided from "thermal limit", "voltage limit" and "system stability limit" in a regular grid like the Philippine main grid. In the backbone grid, the transmission capacity will be judged in the same way fundamentally. The figure of thermal limitation for a transmission line is applied as the same number used in NPC-SPUG. Regarding transformers, the rated capacity is used as its limitation. The voltage deviation is allowed within 5%. As for the system stability, it is expected that there is no technical problems in the backbone grid. Therefore, some typical faults are checked through dynamic simulation.

6-46 (c) Point of time and condition for the power flow study The point of time for the power flow study will be selected at the time of the maximum demand. Although the output of hydropower power plants is changed with probability, the output is set at the average output because the average output nearly equals the rated capacity in the 2nd half when the maximum demand is recorded. The power factor is set at 80%; the standard figure in NPC-SPUG.

6-47 Power System Map of the Backbone Grid

El Nido S/S ('15)

Taytay S/S ('06)

Babuyan ('07) Roxas S/S ('06)

Irawan S/S Delta-P IPP Baraki ('09) Talakaigan ('06) Puerto Princesa DPP Malatgao ('06) Puerto Princesa S/S ('09, Tr: '14) Batang Batang ('15op)

Narra S/S (Tr: '08, '13) Barong Barong ('06)

Abo-Abo S/S ('06) Cabinbin ('06)

Brooke’s Point S/S (Tr: '12)

Bataraza S/S

Existing Transmission Line Planed Transmission Line (On-going project) Planed Transmission Line (Proposed Project)

Existing Substation Planed Substation (On-going project) Planed Substation (Proposed Project) Figure 6.2.12 Power System Map of the Backbone Grid (2015)

6-48 Power System Diagram El Nido of the Backbone Grid

75.0km Taytay

65.14km

Roxas

70.9km 111.09km

25.0km Babuyan 7.0km Delta-P 11.0km 40.2km Irawan 5.2km Power Puerto Barge Princesa 56.9km

Baraki 8.8km 7.8km 86.96km Talakaigan 9.3km 4.8km Malatgao 9.1km 17.5km Narra 13.0km Batang Batang

76.61km 32.0km Abo-Abo

44.6km Brooke’s Point Barong 7.0km Barong 5.0km Cabinbin 28.0km Bataraza

Figure 6.2.13 Power System Diagram of the Backbone Grid (2015)

6-49 Power System Map 1 1 1 3 3 around Puerto Princesa City 3 . . . 8 8 8 k k k V V Irawan DPP V

D D D e e e l l l t t t a a a

P P P - -

Irawan S/S - P P P P P 1133..88kkVV IIrraawwaann--PPPPDDPPPP TTiiee--lliinnee P 13.8kV Irawan-PPDPP Tie-line D D D P P P P P P

L L L i i i n n n e e e

111333...888kkkVVV PPPBBB111000666---PPPPPPDDDPPPPPP LLLiiinnneee 6 6 6 Power Barge 106 Puerto Princesa DPP 9 9 9 k k k V V V P P P a a a l l l a a a w w w a a a n n n B B B a a a c c c k k k b b b o o o n n n e e e T T T r r r a a a n n n s s s m m m i i i s s s s s s i i i o o o n n n L L L i i i n n n

e Sta Lucia DPP e e

0 1 2 3 4km

Figure 6.2.14 Power System Map around Puerto Princesa City

6-50 (3) Results of the study on the transmission development plan

(i) Expansion of the existing backbone grid

(a) Construction of Puerto Princesa substation At present, the transformer capacity in the Irawan substation is 20MVA, while the line capacity of the 13.8kV tie line (single circuit) from the Irawan substation to Puerto Princesa City DPP is 12.5MVA. This means the capacity sent to the center of Puerto Princesa City is restricted by the capacity of the 13.8kV tie line. On the other hand, the power flow on the 13.8kV tie line is nearly equal to the figure when subtracting the total output in Delta-P and Puerto Princesa City DPP from the demand in Puerto Princesa City. Here the output of these power plants is assumed as the following two cases, the power flow on the 13.8kV tie line with 90% of a load factor is shown in Figure 6.2.15.

Case A: Dependable Capacity of Delta-P (15,000kW) Case B: Dependable Capacity of Delta-P and Puerto Princesa City DPP (20,400kW) 70,000 PowerFlow(CaseA) PowerFlow(CaseB) 60,000 ExistingCapacity(Irawan Tr, kVA) ExistingCapacity(Tie Line, kVA) 50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000 Power Flow, Capacity (kVA) 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Figure 6.2.15 Forecast Power Flow on the 13.8kV Tie Line

The 13.8kV tie line between the Irawan substation and Puerto Princesa City DPP is originally designed with a double circuit and 69kV insulator as shown Figure 6.2.16. Although the tie line is used at a single circuit due to the broken insulator in one circuit, the capacity becomes double (25MW) if the insulators are repaired. Therefore the doubled circuit is an essential condition in 2008 when the power flow is expected to exceed the present capacity at a single circuit (Case A). Secondly, an additional transformer will be needed at the Irawan substation in 2009 when the power flow will exceed the present transformer capacity (Case A). However the transformer addition in the Irawan substation is not seen as a good solution, because other countermeasures will be essential in the distribution system to send power from the Irawan substation to the city center of Puerto Princesa City.

6-51 If the tie line can be energized at 69kV and a new 69/13.8kV substation is constructed inside of the Puerto Princesa City DPP, this plan may became the optimal plan with the least cost and with a reliable configuration. According to the rough study, some wood poles of the tie line are not suited for use at 69kV because the distance between a conductor and a pole is too narrow. But it is feasible enough to use the tie line at 69kV as long as reinforcements are planed. For this reason, the construction of the Puerto Princesa substation is recommended in 2009. To summarize the technical study results, the Figure 6.2.16 Present Tie Line transmission development plan becomes as follows. ¾ 2008 Doubled circuits for the 13.8kV tie line ¾ 2009 Voltage step-up for the tie line from 13.8kV to 69kV Construction of the 69/13.8kV Puerto Princesa substation (40MVA) ¾ 2014 69/13.8kV additional transformers (40MVA) in the Puerto Princesa substation

(b) Construction of the Abo-Abo substation At present, the Quezon area located on the west coast of the Palawan main island is supplied from the Narra substation through a distribution line owned by PALECO. In this area, there is a problem in that the voltage becomes low due to the long distribution line. For this reason, PALECO is requesting NPC-SPUG to construct a new substation that supplies the power to the Quezon area. This issue was already studied in Section 6.2.4, and it was recommended that a new substation should be installed around Abo-Abo. In conclusion, the transmission development plan considers the construction of an Abo-Abo substation in 2006, taking into account its construction term.

(c) Additional transformer in the Narra and Brooke's Point substation The forecasted power flow of the existing transformer in the Narra and Brooke's Point substation is shown in Figure 6.2.17. In this case, the power factor is regulated at 90% by installing the capacitor at 13.8kV bus. According to this result, additional transformers should be planed as follows. ¾ 2008 69/13.8kV Additional Transformer (5MVA) in the Narra substation ¾ 2012 69/13.8kV Additional Transformer (5MVA) in the Brooke's Point substation ¾ 2013 69/13.8kV Additional Transformer (5MVA) in the Narra substation

6-52 16,000 Power Flow (Narra Tr) 14,000 Power Flow (Brooke's Point Tr) Existing Tr Capacity 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000

Power Flow, Capacity (kVA) 0

4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Figure 6.2.17 Forecasted Power Flow on the Transformer in the Narra S/S, Brooke's Point S/S

(ii) New extension of the backbone grid

(a) Construction of the Bataraza transmission line and substation According to the transmission development plan by NPC-SPUG, construction projects involving a new transmission line from Brooke's Point to Bataraza and a new substation in Bataraza are planed in 2007. It is said that a nickel mining company in Bataraza requested NPC-SPUG to send power, and that's the reason those projects are planed. This nickel mining company already has generators of its own. Since there is no contract between NPC-SPUG and the nickel mining company, these projects cannot be accepted formally in the Master Plan. One the other hand, the Bataraza area is already supplied from the Brooke's Point substation through a distribution line owned by PALECO. According to the studies from the distribution side, a new substation in Bataraza is not essential from the viewpoint of power supply for the residential demand. For these reasons, the construction project of the Bataraza transmission line and substation is not included into the Master Plan. After a contract is realized, these projects should be planed formally.

(b) Construction of the El Nido transmission line and substation According to the transmission development plan by NPC-SPUG, construction projects of a new transmission line from Taytay to El Nido and a new substation in El Nido are planed for 2007. The El Nido area is already supplied from the El Nido DPP owned by NPC-SPUG wit 12-hour operations. This means the project should be for the purpose of economical supply, and the construction cost of those transmission facilities should be recovered from the benefit of the generation cost being reduced by the interconnection. For this reason, those projects are evaluated from the economical standpoint. The assumption for the evaluation of grid extension to El Nido and the study results are shown in Tables 6.2.19 and 6.2.20.

6-53 Table 6.2.19 Assumptions for the Evaluation of Grid Extension to El Nido El Nido Isolated Grid backbone grid Fuel Cost c/Gcal 4,245 2,097 Fixed O&M Cost $/kW-month 8.77 1.78 Variable O&M Cost $/MWh 2.54 2.2 Average Heat Rate kcal/kWh 2,479 2,145 Reserve Capacity Ratio % 20% 10% Gen Investment Cost $/kW 1,600 1,310 Load Factor (24hour) % 40% 40% Discount Rate % 12% 12% Trans. Investment Cost 1000$ --- 3,873 S/S Investment Cost 1000$ --- 364 Trans. O&M Cost Ratio % --- 9.1% S/S O&M Cost Ratio % --- 10.6%

Table 6.2.20 Evaluation Results of Grid Extension to El Nido 10 year 15 year 22 year NPV 1000$ -2,972 -1,398 1,574 IRR % -6% 8% 15%

It can be said that the larger the power system capacity grows the better the economic benefit becomes; however the benefit is still small around 2010. For this reason, the construction project of the El Nido transmission line and substation is planed for 2015, the final year of the Master Plan.

(iii) Improvement of the power system configuration around Puerto Princesa City Since Power Barge 106 will be transferred and temporary diesel generator will be installed inside of the Irawan substation in 2004, the system configuration will be improved at the same time. Moreover the system configuration will be improved after the construction of the Puerto Princesa substation that is recommended for 2009. Therefore, the improvement project for the purpose of the separation of the generator circuit and the distribution circuit should be planed in collaboration with the Puerto Princesa substation project. In conclusion, the recommended system configuration in 2009 is shown in Figure 6.2.18.

6-54 Present in 2009

Irawan Irawan S/S S/S

DPP

PALECO

Puerto S/S Puerto Princesa Princesa

DPP DPP PALECO PALECO

Power Delta-P Delta-P Barge Figure 6.2.18 Recommended System Configuration around Puerto Princesa City

(4) Results of the power system simulation In order to verify the technical study results for the transmission development in detail, a power system simulation using PSS/E was carried out.

(i) Results of the power flow analysis The power flow analysis was executed under the conditions for 2006 and 2015 as the typical years. Two calculation scenarios, with/without Batang Batang, were executed for the conditions in 2015. Through the analysis, it is verified that there are no technical problems as long as the recommended projects are put into practice. For example, the power flow calculation result is shown in Figure 6.2.19.

(ii) Result of the short circuit capacity analysis The short circuit capacity analysis was executed under the same conditions as the power flow analysis. The results indicated no technical problems. For example, the short circuit capacity calculation results are shown in Figure 6.2.20.

6-55 (5) Summary of the transmission development plan As the result of the technical study, the Master Plan should include the following transmission development plan.

¾ Access transmission lines to power plants The access transmission lines to hydropower plants are planed in accordance with the hydropower generation development plan. The access transmission lines to diesel power plants are ignored in the Master Plan, because no transmission facility will be required as long as a generator will be installed in the Irawan substation. It is also the most practical plan. ¾ Expansion projects of the backbone grid The following projects shown in Table 6.2.21 are considered in the Master Plan.

Table 6.2.21 Expansion Projects of the Backbone Grid Year Transmission Substation 2006 69kV Puerto Princesa City - Roxas T/L 69/13.8kV Roxas S/S 69kV Roxas - Taytay T/L 69/13.8kV Taytay S/S 69/13.8kV Abo-Abo S/S 2008 Doubled Circuit of 13.8kV Tie Line 69/13.8kV Add. Tr . in Narra S/S 2009 Voltage step-up of Tie Line to 69kV 69/13.8kV Puerto Princesa S/S 2012 69/13.8kV Add. Tr . in Brooke's Point 2013 69/13.8kV Add. Tr . in Narra 2014 69/13.8kV Add. Tr in Puerto Princesa S/S 2015 69kV Taytay-El Nido T/L 69/13.8kV El Nido S/S

6-56 Transmission line, Transformer Upper: active power (MW) Lower: reactive power (MVar) Bus Upper: voltage (PU) Lower: voltage (kV)

Figure 6.2.19 Power Flow Calculation Result in the Backbone Grid (2015)

6-57 Upper: short circuit current (A) Lower: phase of current (degree)

Figure 6.2.20 Short Circuit Capacity Calculation Result in the Backbone Grid (2015) 6-58 6.2.5 Technical Study on the Power System Operation Plan for the Backbone Grid

(1) Basic policy for the power system operation plan of the backbone grid The power system operation of the backbone grid just started in 2000. Since the system capacity is still small, the facilities for operation are very simple and the power systems operation relies on manpower. According to the generation development plan of the backbone grid, the peak demand will reach 96,971W with 120,550kW of installed capacity in 2015 and there is the possibility that the system operations will be beyond its ability without reinforcement for these operation. In this section, the necessity of the reinforcement for the system operation will be discussed mainly from the technical viewpoint. The investment for the power system operation is basically for the purpose of improving reliability. So decisions should be made taking into account the priorities compared with other investment such as the electrification project.

(2) Technical study on the power system operation plan In the backbone grid at present, the minimum facility is equipped for the power system operation, for instance radio equipment or protection relays. In a large power system like the Philippine main grid, for example, the following equipment are installed.

¾ SCADA/EMS System EMS (Energy Management System) controls the generator automatically, while SCASA (Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition System) controls a switch-gear in a substation remotely. These computer systems are installed in the dispatching center where the whole power system is managed. In the Philippine main grid, the computer system previously installed was replaced in 2002 with a brand-new system through the National Load Dispatching Center Project loaned by World Bank. Table 6.2.22 ALD Setting in the Philippine Main Grid Setting Load Shedding ¾ System Stabilizing Equipment Group Hz Second MW The System Stabilizing Equipment 1 59.0 0 145 prevents system-wide blackouts by 2 58.9 0 145 performing emergency control such as load 3 58.8 0 145 4 58.7 0 145 shedding. 5 58.6 0 150 In the Philippine main grid, ALD 6 58.5 0 150 7 58.4 0 165 (Automatic Load Dropping) is installed 8 58.3 0 220 throughout the power system, which 9 58.2 0 220 executes load shedding in accordance with 10 58.1 0 220 11 58.0 0 250 the settings shown in Table 6.2.22 12 57.9 0 250 automatically when system frequency 13 57.8 0 250 14 57.7 0 400 declines. Subtotal 2,855 Other equipment named SPS (System 1 59.2 15 50 Preservation Scheme) is also installed to 2 59.1 7.5 50 Total 2,955 prevent generator step-out. The necessity of this type of equipment is studied hereafter.

6-59 (i) Necessity of dispatching center According to the transmission development plan, the number of substations will become 6 (7 if Abo-Abo S/S is included) by 2015, which is still small from the viewpoint of the necessity of the SCADA system. But 6 sites for the hydropower plan will be developed by 2009 from the result of the generation development plan. A diesel power plant where fuel is stored is difficult to operate remotely, while a hydropower plant is easy as it is operated remotely in Japan. Therefore it is worth studying a dispatching center that controls not only a substation but also a hydropower plant remotely.

(a) Estimated construction cost of Palawan dispatching center The construction cost of the EMS/SCADA system for the National load dispatching center where the Philippine main grid is managed is 19.2 million US$, and the construction cost of telecommunication system reaches 35 million US$. For the backbone grid, where the system capacity is very small, a cheaper edition of the SCADA named “Mini-SCADA” can be applied. The roughly estimated construction cost of the Palawan dispatching center using the Mini-SCADA is shown in Table 6.2.23.

Table 6.2.23 Estimated Construction Cost of the Palawan Dispatching Center Foreign Local Category Particulars (thousand US$) (thousand Php) SCADA System SCADA System (Hardware & Software) 300 Remote Terminal Unit (RTUs) 260 Intelligent Electronic Device (meters) 120 Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS) 40 Chargers and Batteries Control Center 3 Substations 6 Relay Stations (with genset) 36 Hydro Power Stations 18 Telecom System Option 1: Microwave Radio System 1,000 Option 2: UHF Radio System 700 Option 3: VSAT Communication System 500 Control Center Building 10,000 Air-conditioning & Ventilation System 1,000 Relay Stations Building 2,900 (Not needed for VSAT) Air-conditioning & Ventilation System 120 Total Option 1: Microwave Radio System 1,763 14,020 Option 2: UHF Radio System 1,463 14,020 Option 3: VSAT Communication System 1,263 11,000

(b) Economic evaluation of the Palawan dispatching center The dispatching center will contribute to the cost reduction for the operator by controlling a substation and a hydropower plant remotely. On the other hand, the additional operation cost for a technical expert and the additional maintenance cost for SCADA and telecommunication systems are required. Here the economic considerations for the Palawan dispatching center are roughly evaluated based on the following assumptions.

6-60 ¾ Number of employees (in comparison with no dispatching center)

No of Site No of Engineer No of Electrician Operator Substation 6 - -24 Hydropower Plant 6 -6 -24 Dispatching Center 1 +1 +4 Maintenance SCADA 1 +1 +1 Worker Telecom 1 +1 +2 Hydropower Plant 1 +1 +4 Total -2 -37

¾ Salary Engineer: 15,000PHP/month, Electrician: 8,000PHP/month

¾ Construction cost of SCADA and telecom system 1,263,000$ + 11,000,000PHP (VSAT Communication System)

¾ Equipment life of SCADA and telecom system 15 years

¾ Maintenance cost (per year) SCADA and telecom: 1% of the construction cost Building: 0.8% of the construction cost

¾ Discount rate 12%

The evaluation result is NPV: -53 million pesos and IRR: -7.2%. This results show that there is no benefit for the dispatching center from just the economic standpoint. However the operation in the backbone grid will become complex in 2015, since the grid will have more than 30 generator units (diesel & hydropower) and more than 100MW in installed capacity. Therefore the dispatching center should be constructed in 2015, taking into account such benefits as the O&M cost reduction and the system reliability improvement.

(ii) Necessity of system stabilizing equipment As described in Section 3.5.4, 2% of the gross generation was lost due to blackouts; mostly caused by system-wide blackouts. The fundamental cause is derived from the system configuration around Puerto Princesa City, however, some parts of the loss may be recovered if system stabilizing equipment were installed.

On the other hand, system blackouts can be restored in 30 minutes now. However, it will take more than one hour in 2015, when the system capacity will be around 100MW.

In the transmission development plan, an expansion project around Puerto Princesa City is recommended in 2009 in accordance with the constriction of the Puerto Princesa substation.

6-61 This project will contribute greatly to improved system reliability. But the risk of system blackouts cannot be removed completely. If ALD can recover 0.1% of the gross generation, the energy sales will be increased by 0.53GWh. This figure is equivalent to 2.9 million pesos of income on the condition the electricity price being 5.5Php/kWh. Taking into consideration the investment cost for ALD, which is estimated at around 1 million pesos, this project is supposed to be feasible enough.

In conclusion, it is recommended that ALD should be installed in 2009, when the system configuration is improved around Puerto Princesa City.

(iii) Necessity of modernization of work for power system operations Modernization is required not only for a dispatching center, but also for fundamental operations of the power system. For example, power system analysis, which is essential for power system planning grid system operations, is not carried out sufficiently within NPC-SPUG. As for the recording of operation, not only is a great deal of effort spent on making these records, but also the data of the operations is not managed well because there are no personal computers in the power plants and the substations. The construction of the dispatching center is recommended in 2015. However, these improvements for the daily operations should be addressed with as soon as possible.

(3) Summary of the Power System Operation Plan As the result of technical study for the power system operation plan, the following plan should be included into the Master Plan.

¾ Dispatching Center The dispatching center should be installed around 2015, the final year of the Master Plan. But this plan should be revised in the rolling plan taking into account the actual operation condition, because this project has insufficient economic benefits. ¾ System Stabilizing Equipment ALD, which can prevent system blackouts in the case of frequency dropping, should be installed in 2009 when the system configuration around Puerto Princesa City is improved.

6.2.6 Technical Study on the Power Development Plan for the Isolated Grids

(1) Assumptions for the power development plan of the isolated grids The power development plan for the other isolated grids will be studied based on the basic policy described in Section 6.2.1. The assumptions for the power development plan of isolated grids are as follows.

6-62 ¾ Reserve capacity In the isolated grids where a few generators are operated, the reliability target of LOLP is not useful, because the probability of calculated reliability is not linear and too complex. For this reason, the "Reliability Index" explained in Section 3.5.2 is applied for the decision of power development. If the plan becomes a two-year consecutive development plan, two units will be developed at the same time. ¾ New generator installation project As of January in 2004, the on-going projects approved by NPC-SPUG are presumed to be put into service in 2005. Busuanga : 2 x 500kW Cuyo : 4 x 500kW ¾ Type of diesel generators and its selection The candidate type of diesel generator and the conditions in order to select the generator type are shown in Table 6.2.24. The capacity of the generator shall be selected in consideration of the power system capacity. So the condition to select the generation type is based on the peak demand, except for the transferred generator from the backbone grid.

Table 6.2.24 Diesel Generator Type and its Selection Rated Capacity Dependable Capacity Condition for Selection 54kW 50kW Peak Demand<150kW 163kW 150kW 150kW2500kW

¾ Transfer of the existing generators The transfers of the existing generators whose worth decreases after the accomplishment of the backbone grid are considered in order to use those generators in the isolated grids. But the generators in the Narra and Brooke's Point DPP are abolished in this plan, because the generators already reach their expected lifespan. Concretely, the following generators are planed for use within the Palawan Province.

Table 6.2.25 Generators Transferred from the Backbone Grid Installed Dependable Unit Power Plant Name Maker Fuel Capacity Capacity No. (kW) (kW) Roxas 1 DALE-PERKINS Diesel 260 240 Roxas 2 DALE-PERKINS Diesel 260 240 Roxas 3 DALE-PERKINS Diesel 260 240 Roxas 4 DALE-PERKINS Diesel 163 150 Taytay 1 DALE-PERKINS Diesel 163 150 Taytay 2 DALE-PERKINS Diesel 260 240 Taytay 3 DALE-PERKINS Diesel 163 150

6-63 ¾ Renovation of Generators Some of the existing generators will need to be renovated before 2015, because some of those are already near their expected lifespan. However, the Master Plan does not refer to the renovation.

(2) Result of the technical study on the power development plan for the isolated grids

(i) Developed capacity The study results on the developed capacity in each isolated grid are shown in Table 6.2.26. Power shortages will happen in some areas in 2004. However, the feasible year of generator construction is assumed to be 2005 except for Busuanga and Cuyo, where the power development projects are now on-going. In Table 6.2.26, 6 generators developed in 2007 (marked in the table) are transferred from the backbone grid. One 260kW gen-set is assumed to be transferred to another province.

Table 6.2.26 Results of Developed Capacity in the Isolated Grids Year ElNido SnVicente Busuanga Cuyo Culion Linapacan Araceli Balabac Cagayancillo Agutaya Total 2004 - - 1,000 1,000 ------2,000 2005 520 260 - - 520 326 163 163 54 54 2,060 2006 ------2007 - 260 - 500 - 260 260 163 163 163 1,769 2008 500 ------500 2009 - - 1,000 500 500 - - - - - 2,000 2010 ------2011 500 500 2,000 2,000 500 - - - - - 5,500 2012 - - - - - 260 - - - - 260 2013 - 500 2,000 - 500 - 260 260 - - 3,520 2014 500 - - 2,000 - 500 - - - 163 3,163 2015 - - 2,000 - 500 - - 260 - - 2,760 Total 2,020 1,520 8,000 6,000 2,520 1,346 683 846 217 380 23,532

6-64 (ii) Dependable capacity The study results for the dependable capacity in each isolated grid are shown in Table 6.2.27.

Table 6.2.27 Results of Dependable Capacity in the Isolated Grids Year ElNido SnVicente Busuanga Cuyo Culion Linapacan Araceli Balabac Cagayancillo Agutaya Total 2004 400 550 2,180 2,005 400 100 300 300 200 200 6,635 2005 880 790 2,180 2,005 880 400 450 450 250 250 8,535 2006 880 790 2,180 2,005 880 400 450 450 250 250 8,535 2007 880 1,030 2,180 2,455 880 640 690 600 400 400 10,155 2008 1,330 1,030 2,180 2,455 880 640 690 600 400 400 10,605 2009 1,330 1,030 3,080 2,905 1,330 640 690 600 400 400 12,405 2010 1,330 1,030 3,080 2,905 1,330 640 690 600 400 400 12,405 2011 1,780 1,480 4,880 4,705 1,780 640 690 600 400 400 17,355 2012 1,780 1,480 4,880 4,705 1,780 880 690 600 400 400 17,595 2013 1,780 1,930 6,680 4,705 2,230 880 930 840 400 400 20,775 2014 2,230 1,930 6,680 6,505 2,230 1,330 930 840 400 550 23,625 2015 2,230 1,930 8,480 6,505 2,680 1,330 930 1,080 400 550 26,115

(ii) Reliability index The study results for the Reliability Index in each isolated grid are shown in Figure 6.2.21. In 2004, the Reliability Index becomes below "1" in El Nido, San Vicente, Culion, Linapacan and Agutaya. In fact, in Linapacan the Reliability Index actually becomes minus. Therefore, a very severe situation for supplying power can be expected even if all generators are in service. 3.0 El Nido

2.5 Sn Vicente

Busuanga 2.0 Cuyo 1.5 Culion

1.0 Linapacan Reliability Index Araceli 0.5 Balabac 0.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 6.2.21 Result of Reliability Index in the Isolated Grids

6-65 (3) Summary of the Power Development Plan for the Isolated Grids The technical study results for the isolated grids are summarized as follow.

¾ Power Development The total capacity developed during 2004 to 2015 is 23,532kW in rated capacity and 21,280kW in dependable capacity, including the transferred generators from the backbone grid. In 2004 some generators are being developed in Busuanga and Cuyo. However, the shortage of power is expected in the other islands. Therefore, the power development project should be started as soon as possible to complete it by 2005. ¾ Generator Transfer from the Backbone Grid On the assumption that the backbone grid will be completed in 2006, the transfer of generators to the isolated grids is planned for 2007. In this Master Plan, the generators with 260kW capacity are transferred to San Vicente, Linapacan and Araceli, while the generators with 163kW are transferred to Balabac, Cagayancillo and Agutaya.

6-66 Chapter 7 Master Plan for the Power Development in Palawan Province

7.1 Current Status of Power Sector in Palawan Province

7.1.1 Status of Electrification

(1) Status of Barangay Electrification

Table 7.1.1 Status of Electrification (As of end of December, 2003) Electrification Status Number Number Number of Household Electrification Level of Share (%) of Electrified Electrification Electrification Method Barangays Households Households Ratio (%) Electrified 271 62.9 119,685 56.924 47.6 LEVEL III Barangay 44 10.2 28,646 28,646 100.0 ( EC-grid ) (44) (10.2) (28,646) (28,646) (100.0) ( Mini-grid ) (0) (0.0) (0) (0) (0.0) ( Stand-alone ) (0) (0.0) (0) (0) (0.0) LEVEL II Barangay 118 27.4 40,478 22,185 54.8 ( EC-grid ) (111) (25.8) (38,948) (21,512) (55.2) ( Mini-grid ) (1) (0.2) (754) (300) (39.8) ( Stand-alone ) (6) (1.4) (776) (373) (48.1) LEVEL I Barangay 109 25.3 50,561 6,093 12.1 ( EC-grid ) (57) (13.2) (33,099) (4,258) (12.9) ( Mini-grid ) (5) (1.2) (3,637) (570) (15.7) ( Stand-alone ) (47) (10.9) (13,825) (1,265) (9.2) Un-electrified 160 37.1 47,706 0 0.0 Total 431 100.0 167,391 56,924 34.0

7-1 7.1.2 Existing Power Facilities of the Backbone Grid and Isolated Grids

Total Installed Capacity : 48.9 MW (As of end of February 2003)

BUSUANGA DPP 1620 kW CULION DPP 423 kW

LINAPACAN DPP AGUTAYA DPP 108 kW 217 kW

EL NIDO DPP 423 kW

SAN VICENTE DPP TAYTAY DPP 586 kW 586 kW

DELTA-P DPP (IPP) CUYO DPP 16,000 kW ARACELI DPP 1,634 kW 326 kW IRAWAN Sub Station ROXAS DPP POWER BARGE 106 DPP 943 kW 14,400 kW PUERTO PRINCESA DPP 9,000 kW Backbone Transmission Line CAGAYANCILLO DPP 217 kW NARRA DPP 1448 kW

BROOKE’S POINT DPP 600 kW

BALABAC DPP 326 kW

Figure 7.1.1 Location Map of the Existing Power Facilities in Palawan

7-2 7.2 Barangay Electrification Plan

Table 7.2.1 Summary of Investment Costs for the Barangay Electrification Plan

Unit: million Php

Whole Barangay Electrification Household Electrification Improvement (Phase I) (Phase II) Total Sub Sub 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total Total

EC-Grid Extension 9.5 8.7 3.9 22.1 ------22.1

Electrification Mini-Grid - - 115.0 115.0 ------115.0 7-3 Method System

Stand-Alone System 21.0 21.0 4.2 46.2 75.2 76.6 77.3 80.0 75.7 76.7 77.3 78.9 47.5 665.2 711.4

Total 30.5 29.7123.1 183.3 75.2 76.6 77.3 80.0 75.7 76.7 77.3 78.9 47.5 665.2 848.5

Barangay Electrification Ratio 77.0% 91.6% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

HH Electrification Ratio 39.7% 40.3% 40.4% 42.5% 44.6% 46.5% 48.3% 49.9% 51.3% 52.7% 54.0% 54.5%

*Base Scenario (Case1) Target Household Electrification Ratio: EC-grid 50%、Mini-grid 35%、Stand-alone system 35%

7-3

7.2.1 Barangay Electrification Program

Table 7.2.2 List of Whole Barangay Electrification Programs

Investment Cost Barangay Name Electrification Method Target Year Capacity (kW) (million Php) Sagpangan Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Culandanum (a) Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35

Investment Cost Barangay Name Electrification Method Target Year Capacity (kW) (million Php) Diit Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Villafria Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Villasol Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Algeciras Mini-grid 2006 87 kW 3.70 Conception (a) Mini-grid 2006 63 kW 3.20 Maracanao Stand-alone 2006 20 households 0.35 Matarawis Stand-alone 2006 20 households 0.35

Investment Cost Barangay Name Electrification Method Target Year Capacity (kW) (million Php) Dagman Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Lumacad Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Mauringuen Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Osmena (a) Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Taloto Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Balogo Stand-alone 2006 20 households 0.35 Dalayawon Stand-alone 2006 20 households 0.35 Madoldolon Stand-alone 2006 20 households 0.35 San Jose De Oro Stand-alone 2006 20 households 0.35 Santo Nino (a) Stand-alone 2006 20 households 0.35

7-4

Investment Cost Barangay Name Electrification Method Target Year Capacity (kW) (million Php) Catagupan Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Ramos Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Salang Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Agutayan Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Bugsuk (New Cagayancillo) Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Indalawan Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Malaking Ilog Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Melville Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Pandanan Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Pasig Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Rabor Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Sebaring Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Bancalaan Mini-grid 2006 87 kW 4.60 Mangsee Mini-grid 2006 63 kW 4.10

Investment Cost Barangay Name Electrification Method Target Year Capacity (kW) (million Php) Buliluyan Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Igang igang Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Iwahig Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Ocayan Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Sapa Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Sarong Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Taratak Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Bulalacao (a) EC-grid extension 2005 20 kW 3.90 Malihud EC-grid extension 2005 19 kW 4.80 Malitub Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Puring Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Tabud Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Tagnato Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Tagolango Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Culandanum (b) Mini-grid 2006 50 kW 4.30 Rio Tuba Mini-grid 2006 108 kW 7.50 Sandoval (a) Mini-grid 2006 34 kW 5.20 Sumbiling Mini-grid 2006 34 kW 3.60 Tarusan EC-grid extension 2006 41 kW 3.90

7-5

Investment Cost Barangay Name Electrification Method Target Year Capacity (kW) (million Php) Imulnod EC-grid extension 2004 18 kW 2.00

Investment Cost Barangay Name Electrification Method Target Year Capacity (kW) (million Php) Cheey Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Halsey Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Maglalambay Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Burabod Stand-alone 2006 20 households 0.35

Investment Cost Barangay Name Electrification Method Target Year Capacity (kW) (million Php) Magsaysay (a) Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Mampio Stand-alone 2006 20 households 0.35 Nusa Stand-alone 2006 20 households 0.35

Investment Cost Barangay Name Electrification Method Target Year Capacity (kW) (million Php) Binudac Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35

Investment Cost Barangay Name Electrification Method Target Year Capacity (kW) (million Php) Caponayan Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Lubid Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35

Investment Cost Barangay Name Electrification Method Target Year Capacity (kW) (million Php) Capayas Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Ilian Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Santo Tomas Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Tanatanaon Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 San Juan (b) Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Santa Maria Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35

7-6

Investment Cost Barangay Name Electrification Method Target Year Capacity (kW) (million Php) Barotuan Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Bebeladan Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Mabini (b) Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Manlag Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 New Ibajay Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Pasadena Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 San Fernando Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Sibartan Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Villa Libertad Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Villa Paz Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Bucana Mini-grid 2006 63 kW 5.30 Teneguiban Mini-grid 2006 50 kW 6.70

Investment Cost Barangay Name Electrification Method Target Year Capacity (kW) (million Php) Nangalao Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35

Investment Cost Barangay Name Electrification Method Target Year Capacity (kW) (million Php) Canipo Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Cocoro Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Alcoba Stand-alone 2006 20 households 0.35

7-7

Investment Cost Barangay Name Electrification Method Target Year Capacity (kW) (million Php) Babuyan* EC-grid extension 2004 22 kW 3.60 Bahile Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Conception (c) Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Langogan Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Macarascas Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 San Rafael (b) Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Simpocan Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Tagabinit Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Bagong Bayan (b) Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Binduyan Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Buena Vista (b) Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Marufinas Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 New Panggangan Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Tanabag Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Cabayugan Mini-grid 2006 34 kW 3.40 * Upgraded Bgy: Bgy. Babuyan was already electrified by a stand-alone system in 2003.

Investment Cost Barangay Name Electrification Method Target Year Capacity (kW) (million Php) Kalatagbak Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Calumpang Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Maasin (b) Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Sowangan Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Tagusao Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Malatgao (b) EC-grid extension 2005 23 kW 3.60 Aramaywan (b) Mini-grid 2006 34 kW 5.20 Isugod Mini-grid 2006 34 kW 4.00 Quinlogan Mini-grid 2006 50 kW 4.50

Investment Cost Barangay Name Electrification Method Target Year Capacity (kW) (million Php) Canipaan Mini-grid 2006 50 kW 4.70 Culacian (b) Mini-grid 2006 50 kW 3.00 Iraan (b) Mini-grid 2006 108 kW 9.30 Latud Mini-grid 2006 34 kW 6.50 Panalingaan Mini-grid 2006 87 kW 5.80 Ransang Mini-grid 2006 87 kW 6.90

7-8

Investment Cost Barangay Name Electrification Method Target Year Capacity (kW) (million Php) Caramay Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Dumarao Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Nicanor Zabara Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Sandoval (c) Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Tinitian Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Tumarabong Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Antonino Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Bagong Bayan (c) Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Barangay VI (Pob) (Johnson) Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Santo Tomas (Iraan) Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Jolo Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Mendoza Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Rizal (b) Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Salvacion (b) Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 San Isidro (c) Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 San Miguel (b) Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 San Nicolas (c) Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Taradungan Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Barangay V (Pob) (Porao Is) Stand-alone 2006 20 households 0.35

Investment Cost Barangay Name Electrification Method Target Year Capacity (kW) (million Php) Binga Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Kemdeng Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 New Canipo Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Caruray Mini-grid 2006 50 kW 4.40

Project Cost Barangay Name Electrification Method Target Year Capacity (kW) (million Php) Iraray Stand-Alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Pulot Interior (Pulot II) Stand-Alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Punang Stand-Alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Labog Mini-Grid 2006 50 kW 5.00

7-9

Investment Cost Barangay Name Electrification Method Target Year Capacity (kW) (million Php) Alacalian Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Bantulan Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Libertad Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Paglaum Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Paly (Paly Is) Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Pancol Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 San Jose (d) Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Tumbod Stand-alone 2004 20 households 0.35 Baras Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Batas Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Depla Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Meytegued Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Minapla Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Old Guinlo Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Pamantolon Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Sandoval (d) Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Silanga Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 Talog Stand-alone 2005 20 households 0.35 New Guinlo Mini-grid 2006 34 kW 4.30

7-10

Table 7.2.3 List of the Household Electrification Improvement Programs .. HouseholdElectrificationImprovement Programs 7.2.2 (Unit: million Php) Number of HH Municipality 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 to Electrify ABORLAN 1,308 0.00 7.52 0.00 7.52 0.00 7.52 0.31 0.00 0.00 AGUTAYA 549 7.52 0.00 2.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ARACELI 390 0.00 6.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 BALABAC 1,059 7.52 0.00 7.52 0.00 3.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 BATARAZA 2,540 7.52 0.00 7.52 0.00 7.52 7.52 7.52 6.82 0.00 BROOKE'S POINT 3,130 0.00 7.52 0.00 7.52 0.00 7.52 7.52 15.04 9.62 BUSUANGA 1,422 7.52 0.00 7.52 0.00 7.52 2.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 CAGAYANCILLO 147 0.00 2.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 CORON 1,893 0.00 7.52 0.00 7.52 7.52 0.00 7.52 3.03 0.00 CUYO 274 0.00 4.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7-11 DUMARAN 1,277 7.52 0.00 7.52 0.00 7.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EL NIDO (BACUIT) 1,839 7.52 0.00 7.52 0.00 7.52 7.52 2.08 0.00 0.00 LINAPACAN 922 7.52 0.00 7.52 0.00 1.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 MAGSAYSAY 126 0.00 2.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NARRA 1,701 0.00 7.52 0.00 7.52 0.00 7.52 7.19 0.00 0.00 PUERTO PRINCESA CITY (CAPITAL) 3,859 0.00 0.00 7.52 7.52 0.00 7.52 7.52 15.04 22.37 QUEZON 2,503 0.00 7.52 0.00 7.52 7.52 7.70 7.52 6.00 0.00 ROXAS 2,313 0.00 7.52 0.00 7.52 7.52 0.00 15.04 2.85 0.00 SAN VICENTE 1,132 7.52 0.00 7.52 4.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 TAYTAY 3,234 7.52 0.00 7.52 0.00 7.52 7.52 7.52 15.04 3.92 KALAYAAN 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 CULION 1,070 0.00 7.52 0.00 7.52 3.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RIZAL (MARCOS) 3,675 7.52 0.00 7.52 7.52 0.00 7.52 7.52 15.04 11.63 SOFRONIO ESPANOLA 1,665 0.00 7.52 0.00 7.52 7.52 6.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total 38,028 75.22 76.57 77.30 79.98 75.71 76.74 77.28 78.88 47.55 Electrification Cost =17,493.00 Php/HH

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Table 7.3.1 Power Demand Forecasts for the EC-Grids in Palawan Power DemandForecasts for theEC-Grids 7.3.1 EC-GridsPower DevelopmentPlan 7.3 Mainland Palawan 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Peak Demand (kW) 21,517 25,263 28,680 32,616 37,156 42,401 48,469 55,498 63,653 73,125 84,143 96,971 Energy Sales 103,597 121,626 138,067 157,007 178,856 204,099 233,305 267,141 306,397 351,998 405,038 466,802 (MWh) Gross Generation (MWh) 117,723 138,210 156,894 178,416 203,244 231,930 265,118 303,567 348,176 399,995 460,267 530,457 Load Factor (%) 62％ 62％ 62％ 62％ 62％ 62％ 62％ 62％ 62％ 62％ 62％ 62％

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Peak Demand (kW) 361 414 476 548 632 729 842 973 1,127 1,306 1,516 1,761 Energy Sales 571 656 754 868 1,000 1,154 1,333 1,541 1,784 2,068 2,400 2,788 (MWh) Gross Generation (MWh) 635 729 838 964 1,111 1,282 1,481 1,712 1,983 2,298 2,667 3,098 Load Factor (%) 20％ 20％ 20％ 20％ 20％ 20％ 20％ 20％ 20％ 20％ 20％ 20％

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Peak Demand (kW) 373 7-12 Energy Sales 638 (MWh) Gross Generation (MWh) 709 Load Factor (%) 22％

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Peak Demand (kW) 758 Energy Sales 3,095 (MWh) Gross Generation (MWh) 3,439 Load Factor (%) 52％

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Peak Demand (kW) 314 357 407 465 532 609 698 802 922 1,062 1,224 1,412 Energy Sales 333 379 432 494 564 646 741 850 978 1,126 1,298 1,498 (MWh) Gross Generation (MWh) 370 421 480 548 627 718 823 945 1,086 1,251 1,442 1,664 Load Factor (%) 13％ 13％ 13％ 13％ 13％ 13％ 13％ 13％ 13％ 13％ 13％ 13％

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Island Municipalities 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Peak Demand, 968 1,112 1,282 1,484 1,728 2,023 2,384 2,831 3,388 4,089 4,980 6,120 (kW) Energy Sales 3,970 4,558 5,254 6,085 7,083 8,294 9,775 11,605 13,888 16,762 20,412 25,090 (MWh) Gross Generation ( MWh) 4,563 5,240 6,039 6,994 8,142 9,533 11,235 13,339 15,964 19,267 23,462 28,838 Load Factor (%) 54％ 54％ 54％ 54％ 54％ 54％ 54％ 54％ 54％ 54％ 54％ 54％

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Peak Demand (kW) 324 372 428 496 578 676 797 946 1,132 1,366 1,664 2,045 Energy Sales 529 607 700 811 944 1,105 1,302 1,546 1,850 2,233 2,720 3,343 (MWh) Gross Generation (MWh) 588 675 778 901 1,049 1,228 1,447 1,718 2,056 2,481 3,022 3,714 Load Factor (%) 21％ 21％ 21％ 21％ 21％ 21％ 21％ 21％ 21％ 21％ 21％ 21％

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Peak Demand (kW) 129 148 171 198 231 270 318 378 452 546 664 817 7-13 Energy Sales 165 189 218 253 294 344 406 482 576 696 847 1,041 (MWh) Gross Generation ( MWh) 183 210 242 281 327 383 451 535 641 773 941 1,157 Load Factor (%) 16％ 16％ 16％ 16％ 16％ 16％ 16％ 16％ 16％ 16％ 16％ 16％

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Peak Demand (kW) 1,152 1,303 1,476 1,673 1,899 2,158 2,455 2,797 3,188 3,639 4,159 4,758 Energy Sales 3,344 3,784 4,285 4,859 5,516 6,268 7,130 8,120 9,258 10,568 12,077 13,816 (MWh) Gross Generation ( MWh) 3,716 4,204 4,762 5,399 6,128 6,964 7,922 9,023 10,287 11,742 13,418 15,351 Load Factor (%) 37％ 37％ 37％ 37％ 37％ 37％ 37％ 37％ 37％ 37％ 37％ 37％

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Peak Demand (kW) 145 165 188 214 244 278 317 363 416 477 548 630 Energy Sales 272 308 351 399 455 519 593 679 778 892 1,024 1,178 (MWh) Gross Generation ( MWh) 302 343 390 444 506 577 659 754 864 991 1,138 1,309 Load Factor (%) 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％

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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Peak Demand (kW) 145 165 188 214 244 278 317 363 416 477 548 630 Energy Sales 272 308 351 399 455 519 593 679 778 892 1,024 1,178 (MWh) Gross Generation ( MWh) 302 343 390 444 506 577 659 754 864 991 1,138 1,309 Load Factor (%) 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Peak Demand (kW) 45 51 58 66 76 86 99 113 129 148 170 195 Energy Sales 91 103 118 134 152 174 199 227 260 299 343 394 (MWh) Gross Generation ( MWh) 94 107 121 138 157 179 205 234 268 308 353 406 Load Factor (%) 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Peak Demand (kW) 68 77 88 101 115 131 150 172 197 226 260 299

7-14 Energy Sales 138 156 178 203 231 264 302 346 397 455 523 602 (MWh) Gross Generation ( MWh) 142 161 183 209 238 272 312 357 409 469 540 621 Load Factor (%) 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％ 24％

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7.3.2 Power Development Plan for the Backbone Grid

(1) Power development plan for the backbone grid

(a) Generation development plan for the backbone grid As a result of the detailed technical study, the generation development projects based on the optimal generation development plan are shown in Table 7.3.2. For 2014 and 2015 the JICA Study team recommends two scenarios for optimal generation development. One is the Base Scenario (A) and the other is the Optional Scenario (B) that takes into consideration the environment.

Table 7.3.2 Project List for the Generation Development Plan of the Backbone Grid Rated Dependable Generator Year Project Capacity Capacity Remark Type (kW) (kW) 2004 (Transfer of Power Barge 106) Bunker C (14,400) (8,400) On-going Temporally Leased Genset (8,400) Diesel 8,400 8,400 On-going 2005 ------(No Project)------2006 (Removal of Temporally Genset) Diesel (8,400) (8,400) JICA assumption New Diesel (2x5,000) Diesel 10,000 9,000 Malatgao Hydro (2,200) Hydro 2,200 2,200 Barong Barong Hydro (620) Hydro 620 620 Talakaigan Hydro (990) Hydro 990 990 Cabinbin Hydro (800) Hydro 800 800 2007 (Removal of Roxas & Taytay Genset) Diesel (1,529) (1.420) Babuyan Hydro (5,600) Hydro 5,600 5,600 2008 New Diesel (2x1,500) Diesel 3,0002,700 2009 Baraki Hydro (840) Hydro 840 840 New Diesel (5,000) Diesel 5,000 4,500 2010 New Diesel (1,500, 5,000) Diesel 6,500 5,850 2011 New Diesel (2x 5,000) Diesel 10,000 9,000 2012 New Diesel (2x 5,000) Diesel 10,000 9,000 2013 New Diesel (2x 5,000) Diesel 10,000 9,000 2014 A New Diesel (2x 10,000) Diesel 20,000 18,000 Base Scenario B New Diesel (3x 5,000) Diesel 15,000 13,500 Option Scenario 2015 A New Diesel (2x 5,000) Diesel 10,000 9,000 Base Scenario Batang Batang Hydro (6,700) Hydro 6,700 6,700 Option Scenario B New Diesel (2x 5,000) Diesel 10,000 9,000

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(b) Generation capacity and LOLP in the backbone grid The yearly peak demand, generation capacity (dependable capacity) and LOLP in the Base Scenario are as shown in Figure 7.3.1.

120,000 1.8 Diesel Capacity Hydro Capacity 1.6 100,000 Peak Demand LOLP 1.4

80,000 1.2

1.0 60,000 0.8

40,000 0.6 LOLP (day/year)

Demand,Capacity(kW) 0.4 20,000 0.2

0 0.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Figure 7.3.1 Peak Demand, Generation Capacity and LOLP in the Backbone Grid

(c) Gross generation in the backbone grid The yearly gross generation in the Base Scenario is as shown in Figure 7.3.2.

600,000 Diesel Bunker 500,000 Hydro

400,000

300,000

200,000 Gross Generation (MWh) 100,000

0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Figure 7.3.2 Gross Generation in the Backbone Grid

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(2) Power development plan for the isolated grids

(a) Generation development plan for the isolated grids As a result of the detailed technical study, the generation development projects with their respective rated capacities (kW) are shown in Table 7.3.3.

Table 7.3.3 Project List for the Generation Development Plan for the Isolated Grids (Unit: kW) SanVicent Year ElNido Busuanga Cuyo Culion Linapacan Araceli Balabac Cagayancillo Agutaya Total e 2004 - - 2x500 2x500 ------2,000 2005 2x260 260 - - 2x260 2x163 163 163 54 54 2,060 2006 ------2007 - 260 - 500 - 260 260 163 163 163 1,769 2008 500 ------500 2009 - - 2x500 500 500 - - - - - 2,000 2010 ------2011 500 500 2x1,000 2x1,000 500 - - - - - 5,500 2012 - - - - - 260 - - - - 260 2013 - 500 2x1,000 500 - 260 260 - - 3,520 2014 500 - 2x1,000 - 500 - - - 163 3,163 2015 - - 2x1,000 - 500 - - 260 - - 2,760 Total 2,020 1,520 8,000 6,000 2,520 1,346 683 846 217 380 23,532

(b) Generation capacity in the isolated grids The yearly total peak demand and total generation capacity (dependable capacity) of the isolated grids are shown in Figure 7.3.3.

30,000 Diesel Capacity Peak Demand 25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000 Demand, Capacity (kW) 5,000

0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Figure 7.3.3 Total Peak Demand and Total Generation Capacity in the Isolated Grids

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7.3.3 Transmission Development and Power System Operation Plans for the Backbone Grid

(1) Transmission development and power system operation plans in the backbone grid The proposed projects for the development of transmission lines, substations and system operation equipment are shown in Tables 7.3.4, 7.3.5 and 7.3.6

Table 7.3.4 Project List for the Transmission Line Development Plan Project Distance Year Project Note Type (km) 2006 69kV Puerto Princesa-Roxas T/L New T/L 111.1 On-going 69kV Roxas-Taytay T/L New T/L 65.1 On-going 69kV Malatgao Hydro T/L New T/L 9.1 69kV Barong Barong Hydro T/L New T/L 7.0 69kV Talakaigan Hydro T/L New T/L 9.3 13.8kV Cabinbin Hydro S-T/L New S-T/L 5.0 2007 69kV Babuyan Hydro T/L New T/L 25.0 2008 13.8kV Tie Line (Doubled Circuit) Rehabilitation 11.0 2009 69kV Baraki Hydro T/L New T/L 8.8 69kV Tie Line (Voltage step-up ) Rehabilitation 11.0 2015 A 69kV Taytay-El Nido T/L New T/L 75.0 Base Scenario 69kV Taytay-El Nido T/L New T/L 75.0 B Option Scenario Batang Batang Hydro T/L New T/L 13.0

Table 7.3.5 Project List for the Substation Development Plan Project Capacity Year Project Note Type (kVA) 2006 69/13.8kV Roxas S/S New S/S 5,000 69/13.8kV Taytay S/S New S/S 5,000 69/13.8kV Abo-Abo S/S New S/S 5,000 2008 69/13.8kV Transformer (Narra S/S) Additional Tr. 5,000 2009 69/13.8kV Puerto Princesa S/S New S/S 40,000 2012 69/13.8kV Transformer (Brooke's S/S) Additional Tr. 5,000 2013 69/13.8kV Transformer (Narra S/S) Additional Tr. 5,000 2014 69/13.8kV Transformer (Puerto S/S) Additional Tr. 40,000 2015 69/13.8kV El Nido S/S New S/S 5,000

Table 7.3.6 Project List for the Power System Operation Plan Year Project Project Type Remark 2009 ALD System System Stabilizing Equipment 2015 Palawan Dispatching Center SCADA/ EMS System

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(2) Future power system configuration of the backbone grid The power system map and configuration of the backbone grid in 2015 are as shown in Figures 7.3.4 and 7.3.5.

Power System Map of the Backbone Grid

El Nido S/S ('15)

Taytay S/S ('06)

Babuyan ('07) Roxas S/S ('06)

Irawan S/S Delta-P IPP Baraki ('09) Talakaigan ('06) Puerto Princesa DPP Malatgao ('06) Puerto Princesa S/S ('09, Tr: '14) Batang Batang ('15op)

Narra S/S (Tr: '08, '13) Barong barong('06)

Abo-Abo S/S ('06) Cabinbin ('06)

Brooke’s Point S/S (Tr: '12)

Bataraza S/S Existing Transmission Lines Planed Transmission Lines (on-going projects) Planed Transmission Lines (proposed projects)

Existing Substations Planed Substations (on-going projects) Planed Substations (proposed projects) Figure 7.3.4 Power System Map of the Backbone Grid (2015)

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Power System Diagram of the Backbone Grid El Nido ('15) ('15) Taytay ('06)

('06)

Roxas ('06)

('06) Puerto Princesa ('09, Tr:'14) ('07) (2cct: '08, 69kV: '09) Babuyan Delta-P

Irawan

Baraki ('09) 69kV Circuit (existing) Talakaigan ('06) 69kV Circuit (planed)

Malatgao ('06) Narra 13.8kV Circuit (existing) 13.8kV Circuit (planed) ('15/op) Batang Batang (Tr: '08, '13)

Abo-Abo ('06)

Brooke's Point ('06) Barong Barong ('06) (Tr: '12)

Cabinbin Bataraza

Figure 7.3.5 Power System Diagram of the Backbone Grid (2015)

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7.3.4 Investment Costs for the EC-Grids Power Development Plan

The investment costs for the EC-grid power development plan are summarized in Table 7.3.7. In this table, investment costs for one project are calculated at the commissioning year with the interest for construction term. Costs for the temporally leased generator projects in 2004 are not included.

Table 7.3.7 Investment Costs for the EC-Grids Power Development Plan (million Php) Generation Transmission Year Total Backbone Isolated Subtotal T/L S/S Operation Subtotal 2004 158.4 158.4 158.4 2005 102.7 102.7 102.7 2006 1,226.9 1,226.9 444.0 70.3 514.3 1,741.2 2007 1,121.4 44.6 1,166.0 19.2 19.2 1,185.2 2008 215.6 39.6 255.2 10.5 10.5 265.7 2009 492.7 158.4 651.1 20.1 88.5 1.0 109.6 760.7 2010 454.1 454.1 454.1 2011 669.7 419.0 1,088.7 1,088.7 2012 669.7 12.1 681.8 10.5 10.5 692.3 2013 669.7 253.4 923.1 10.5 10.5 933.6 2014 1,296.9 238.1 1,535.0 44.3 44.3 1,579.3 2015 669.7 201.8 871.5 281.0 43.1 78.2 402.3 1,273.8 2004-15 7,486.4 1,628.1 9,114.5 764.3 277.7 79.2 1,121.2 10,235.7

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Chapter 8 Recommendations for Achievement of the Master Plan for Power Development in Palawan Province

8.1 Issues in Implementation of the Master Plan

8.1.1 Outlook for Assurance of Funding Sources for Electrification in Palawan Province

The electrification of all barangays in Palawan Province by the end of 2006 as noted in the master plan would require the electrification of the 160 barangays there that had not been electrified as of December 2003 over a period of about three years. However, the financing required for this work is still under heavy constraints. As compared to the island of Luzon, Palawan is saddled with poor geographical conditions that would drive up facility construction costs considerably. (In Luzon, the cost of electrification by extension of the grid averages an estimated 1 million pesos per barangay, but the corresponding cost in Palawan is about three times as much.) The financial constraints are therefore particularly serious in its case.

Let us consider the financial outlook for electrification plans in 2004. The main prospective funding sources are outlays from independent power producers (IPPs) under the Adopt-a-Barangay Program, subsidies from the National Electrification Administration (NEA) for electric cooperatives (ECs), amounts budgeted under the Missionary Electrification Development Plan (MEDP) promoted by the Small Power Utility Group (SPUG) of the National Power Corporation (NPC) and the adaptable program loan (APL) package currently being negotiated between the Philippine government and the World Bank. Nevertheless, there are several factors of uncertainty in this outlook.

Regarding the funding from IPPs, under the framework of the Adopt-a-Barangay Program to which KEPCO and Mirant1 are already committed, the former is to electrify 34 barangays in 2004, and the latter, 50 barangays in 2004 and 2005.

As for the second source (NEA subsidies), ECs have thus far applied such funds in electrifying three or four barangays a year. However, the NEA tends to be slow to execute its budget; the 2003 budget was executed in October of that year.

There are some apprehensions about future subsidies from the NEA. The NEA dismissed all 700 of its staff in late 2003 and is going to rehire 400 in 2004 as it instates a shakeup. Even under this shakeup, the NEA will reportedly continue to provide subsidies from the General Appropriation, but it is not clear at present whether there will be a change in its policy.

1 KEPCO decided to design the project and procure funds itself for electrification of 34 barangays, and launched the project in January 2004. It intends to complete the project, inclusive of field studies, determination of electrification method, and construction of facilities, by the end of 2004. The Mirant project had already electrified 17 of the 50 barangays as of January 31, 2004, but the construction cost per barangay was far in excess of the 1 million pesos originally anticipated. The project has consequently gone far over budget, and the handling of the remaining 33 barangays was left to the Department of Energy (DOE). In subsequent negotiations with the DOE, Mirant sought a list of barangays that would be candidates for electrification, and received one from ECs. The remaining 33 barangays are to be electrified over the two-year period of 2004-2005.

8-1 Thirdly, the NPC-SPUG has announced its intention to electrify 20 barangays in 20042. Nevertheless, these 20 barangays have not yet been included in the electrification plans for which budget is to be executed in the first half of 20043. Therefore, budget will be executed for these plans no earlier than the second half of 2004.

Lastly, a final determination has not yet been made on the APL package from the World Bank for the prospective electrification of 40 barangays (the loans are expected to be received by June 2004).

Even if all of the aforementioned projects were executed, there would still be no outlook for funding for electrification of 20 to 30 barangays (the possibility that the budget may not be available for even the other projects cannot be denied). In other words, even in Palawan there remains the problem of a shortage of funds that must be procured over the next three years4. The financial difficulties should become even worse in the next phase that begins in 2007, which is aimed at increasing the electrification rate on the household basis.

Table 8.1.1 Current Status of the Barangay Electrification Projects

Number of Target Funding sources Comments barangays year Mirant 17 2003 − Virtually completed as of January 2004 33 2004-05 − Presentation of a list of candidate barangays by ECs KEPCO 34 2004 − Execution of all tasks from preparation of drawings to funding procurement by KEPCO − Electrification methods including mini-grids and stand-alone power systems 2002 NEA subsidies 5 2003 − Construction completed at 3 barangays and underway for 1 barangay − Shelving of budget execution for 1 barangay 2003 NEA subsidies 4 2004 − 2003 budget execution delayed until October 2004 NEA subsidies 3 2004 − Under negotiation World Bank APL 40 2004-06 − Under negotiation between the government and the World Bank UNDP/PGP/DOE 2 2004 − Under negotiation NPC-SPUG/MEDP 20 2004 − Not included in the budget execution in the first half of 2004 (no earlier than the second half) Notice: APL: Adaptable Program Loan; BEP: Barangay Electrification Program Source: Prepared by the JICA Study Team based on interview findings

2 This is to be done by constructing a photovoltaic battery charge station. 3 These plans envision the electrification of 116 barangays nationwide. The SPUG has also announced plans for the electrification of 426 barangays over the three-year period ending with 2006. 4 See Section 2.5.2

8-2 8.1.2 Limits of the Current Electrification Scheme

It would, in reality, be extremely difficult to achieve barangay electrification solely through the ECs and the SPUG as the two major principals of rural electrification (RE). The biggest reason is the aforementioned financial constraints.

Obviously, the ECs are expected to play the largest role in RE promotion. With the structural reform in the power sector, however, the NEA has become unable to provide ECs with funding other than the subsidies from the General Appropriation. As such, for future investment, ECs will have to obtain funds through the market based on earnings from their power distribution business. This is to say that they must procure funds on their own responsibility as power distributors. As viewed from this standpoint, it will become increasingly difficult to extend distribution lines into areas that do not afford good earning prospects.

There are clearly also limits to the financial capabilities of the NPC-SPUG, which is responsible for missionary electrification. The passage of the Electric Power Industry Reform Act (EPIRA) led to recognition of the imposition of a universal charge as a funding source for missionary electrification. At present, however, there is a big gap between the amount applied for by the NPC-SPUG and that authorized by the ERC5. Moreover, most of the income (subsidies) obtained through the universal charge "disappears," in that it is used to compensate for the deficits at existing facilities. Funding available for investment in new projects is extremely limited6.

In other words, both the ECs and the NPC-SPUG have very restricted resources to fund further investment.

As a means for supplementing the activities of the ECs and the NPC-SPUG, local government units (LGUs) are installing diesel generators known as "gen-sets" for the supply of power to barangays. This approach is also saddled with many problems. To be sure, gen-sets can be installed with funding from the Provincial Government of Palawan (PGP), but the LGUs lack the ability to maintain and manage the gen-sets themselves. In some cases, gen-sets are being left idle due a lack of fuel because of budget shortages7. At present, LGUs clearly lack the capability needed for operation of power supply on the project basis.

In light of the limits associated with the current scheme for electrification, it will not be possible to attain the RE targets in Palawan without introducing some new mechanism to compensate for these limits.

5 The universal charge approved for imposition in missionary electrification in 2003 was only 3.37 centavos per kilowatt-hour as opposed to that of 9.52 centavos in the NPC-SPUG application. 6 See Section 2.3.4 7 CERF/International Institute for Energy Conservation - Asia 2002

8-3 Shell Solar is already expanding its sales of solar home systems (SHSs) in Palawan based on financial assistance from the Government of the Netherlands. In the context of the Palawan New and Renewable Energy and Livelihood Support Project (PNRELSP), the PGP is also attempting to build a new mechanism for financial programs, toward the success of the SHS sales business model introduced by Shell with funds from the United Nations Development Programme Global Environment Facility (UNDP-GEF). Similarly, efforts are being made to promote SHS diffusion and launch private-sector distribution projects based on mini-grids in place of ECs and the NPC-SPUG, with APLs from the World Bank.

There is a limit to the funds that can be prepared by the government, and also to the capabilities of the existing ECs and the NPC-SPUG. The situation demands the construction of a scheme for diversified project promotion that will give full play to private-sector funds and aid from bi- and multi-lateral institutions, and thereby resolve the difficulties now being confronted. Unless this is done, the master plan described in this study cannot be achieved.

8.1.3 New Electrification Projects with Poor Prospects for Retrieval of Costs

The un-electrified districts in Palawan that are the targets for future electrification are farther away from the installed transmission and distribution grids, and also have a lower demand density. This naturally results in a higher level of construction cost per kilowatt of capacity and operating cost per kilowatt-hour of service. It consequently becomes even harder to retrieve costs.

Grid extension by ECs into un-electrified districts has been lagging because of difficulties in two major aspects: securing earnings from the additional investment and procuring the requisite funds.

It would be hard for ECs to make new investments for the electrification of barangays not affording good prospects for retrieval of costs without some scheme enabling the procurement of funds and retrieval of costs (which ultimately would mean a hike in rates or dependence on subsidies). In particular, a rate hike would probably deepen dissatisfaction and opposition among the existing EC members.

Steps must be taken not only to reduce construction costs but also to resolve such problems with the operations. This cannot be done merely by according priority to expansion of distribution service by ECs; other electrification methods must be incorporated to curtail the investment cost as much as possible. For example, electrification based on off-grid systems and stand-alone power systems for installation in individual households could be adopted. These methods must be actively incorporated into programs for barangay electrification.

In addition, the construction of this new framework for additional electrification projects will require a new scheme for the procurement of funds. Mere technical feasibility is not enough; without assurance of operating methods and funding sources, it will be impossible to electrify Palawan as envisioned in the master plan.

8-4 8.2 Advisable Setup for Promotion of Barangay Electrification

8.2.1 Importance of Incorporating Stand-Alone Power Systems

Viewed from the standpoint of beneficiaries, grid extension is naturally the most preferable of all the electrification methods in various respects, including supply potential and stability.

In reality, however, methods other than grid extension must be applied due to constraints in the cost aspect (e.g., low demand density and long distances from existing grids) as well as in the aspects of fund procurement and the environment, such as Environmentally Critical Areas Network (ECAN) zoning.

As described above, there are as yet no prospects for procuring funds for electrification of 20 to 30 barangays by the end of 2006. In the case of these barangays, all options must be considered, including that of beneficiary burdens. In addition, seeing that the provision of additional funding in large amounts cannot be expected within the next three years, the practical approach would lie in devising electrification methods that curtail costs to the lowest possible level.

For these reasons, it is thought that supply through mini-grids and the installation of stand-alone systems such as battery charge stations (BCSs) and SHSs will have a vital role to play for electrification of a fairly large proportion of the remaining un-electrified barangays.

8.2.2 Need for Diversification of the Project Setup and Issues related to New Project Models

The operation of stand-alone power systems requires the instatement of diverse new project models. There are already several models that could serve as archetypes. Some examples are listed below.

(1) Barangay power associations One such model is the barangay power association (BAPA), which is operated by the barangay residents. However, BAPAs also have many problems. They generally lack the technical foundation needed for operation and maintenance (O&M) as required for running the works. They also tend to be on very weak financial ground. At present, the barangays take over facilities constructed by ECs or LGUs and use them to supply power to the residents. When the facilities break down or otherwise require repair, the BAPAs have no choice but to depend on the ECs or LGUs. The facilities are therefore at risk of being left idle and un-repaired.

In addition, residents may feel discontent over the cost burden. As compared to the EC retail rate of 5.8 pesos per kilowatt-hour, the cost burden of the beneficiaries in BAPA distribution service, which is on the order of 15 pesos per kilowatt-hour, must be termed extremely high.

8-5 (2) SHS dealers The diffusion of SHSs is another option. There are two major methods of SHS sales: 1) leasing of SHSs to customers and collection of a monthly fee for use, and 2) outright purchase by customers and provision of post-sales services by dealers for a fee. In its current business in Palawan, Shell applies the latter method. Leasing holds a high risk of non-payment of the leasing fees, and past experience made Shell decide against it.

Shell's business is smoothly expanding, but it is being supported by subsidies from the Dutch government for initial investment (the cost of purchase)8. In other words, it cannot be denied that the expanded sales of SHSs rest on these subsidies. The Dutch government has appropriated 5 million dollars for the subsidies, which are to be discontinued once 15,000 systems have been sold.

As such, there is a limit to the direct provision of subsidies, and the preparation of a financial scheme enabling individual beneficiaries to procure funds will eventually assume more importance for the widespread diffusion of SHSs.

(3) Distribution service by qualified third parties using mini-grids Distribution service may also be provided through mini-grids with "qualified third parties" as defined in EPIRA serving as the operators. Based on concession agreements, this approach may be taken in districts where there are no prospects for grid extension by ECs. This model has already been incorporated into the World Bank APL package, and plans are being made for its implementation in 40 barangays in Palawan. It is also one of the options in the KEPCO "Adopt-a-Barangay" program.

Nevertheless, the economic feasibility varies with the number of customers as one of the preconditions, and therefore must be assessed on a case-by-case basis. In the World Bank APL package, there are plans to prepare 66 million dollars in funding. The way has also been paved for subsidies from a universal charge.

In the mechanism for this project, the incentives for investors (operators) would greatly differ depending on the level at which rates can be set for final customers and the amount of subsidies available. Thus far, the DOE has taken a definite stance of providing subsidies only for initial investment and not for operating costs, in order to see that operators maintain disciplined operation.

As in the case of BAPAs, rates could possibly be higher than those offered by ECs. It consequently could be difficult to find a point of compromise between the assurance of operator profits and curtailment of discontent among customers.

8 The standard 50-Wp model costs about 33,000 pesos without subsidies, but sells for 18,360 pesos with the subsidies.

8-6 (4) Power supply using privately owned power systems (POPSs) In areas where the demand is too small to support a power supply as a self-sufficient business, use of systems owned by individuals for supplying power to neighboring homes must be considered as one of the options. The premise here is the use of small generators for supplying power to neighboring households by running distribution lines to them or by connecting BCSs to them.

The facilities are completely privately owned and are by no means installed for business purposes. As such, the supply may not be accompanied by a definite contract relationship with the beneficiaries receiving the power, or by the setting of authorized rates. These points constitute some cause for apprehension about how to assure social credibility and sustainability as a power supply scheme.

8.2.3 Preparation of a New Electrification Setup in Palawan and Role of PGP

For the success of the master plan, various service models must be put into practical application. It will be impossible to raise the funds needed for electrification without mobilizing those in the private sector and individuals, instead of depending solely on public-sector funds. To this end, much must be expected of the PGP as regards encouraging a lot of entrants to participate in the market and preparing conditions conducive to the operation of their businesses. For this reason, the PGP must more clearly define its role and the tasks to be tackled from now on.

(1) Clarification of the PGP role The PGP ought to act as a policy-maker; it would not be advisable for it to get directly involved in the operation of businesses.

One of the main reasons for this is that the capabilities of official agencies are quite different from those needed by operators. This is evidenced by cases in which generation facilities owned by LGUs lie idle because of the lack of adequate O&M capabilities and budgetary backing. Furthermore, an assumption of responsibility extending to O&M by the PGP in order to avoid such situations could swell the PGP organization into areas that are not within its proper jurisdiction. There is also the strong possibility that this would expand the administrative cost burden.

In contrast, the role that is most desired of the PGP, as policy-maker, is to petition the national government and assembly for action on various matters, such as policy support for the service plans of the NPC-SPUG and ECs. Depending on the case, it may also have to make overtures that are political in nature. Funds from the national government (including NEA subsidies, DOE budget and funds for aid from overseas donors) are extremely important to the electrification of Palawan. The PGP must take the initiative in making the systemic (institutional) arrangements required for promoting electrification.

8-7 (2) Review of the Master Plan and drafting of an electrification program The Master Plan is a blueprint for electrification in the province up to 2015 as part of the expanded rural electrification (ER) program on the national governmental level. However, this blueprint ought to be revised as actual progress is made in electrification, and these points to a need for reviews at regular intervals.

For the execution of electrification, the PGP should draft a medium-term program for specific actions based on the Master Plan, and furnish support for the individual projects making up this program.

The PGP must define targets for each year up to and including 2015, and formulate individual projects needed for attaining these targets. It also must stay constantly apprised of the progress of each project already under way, and propose countermeasures or alternative projects in the event of delays or major changes. In addition, it must approach concerned parties (e.g., ECs, the SPUG, private enterprises, beneficiaries, the national government and overseas aid institutions) on behalf of the project. All of these activities are vital parts of the PGP role.

The instatement of a scheme for implementing new business models is a field where the PGP must furnish formidable support. This is especially true in the case of operations led by residents, such as BAPAs and POPSs. While these are expected to be of crucial importance for expanded electrification, resident-centered organizations tend to have extremely frail foundations in both financial and technical terms. To obtain the requisite funding and the technical capabilities needed for O&M, it is indispensable for them to have the support of local banks and ECs in Palawan. The PGP must make the requisite arrangements for such support.

(3) Necessity of establishment of a dedicated energy section in the PGP As described above, to secure the implementation of the master plan proposed in this study, the PGP must establish a diversified institutional and organizational framework for electrification, show its leadership as policymaker, and plan electrification programs and projects. In this sense, the role of the PGP is very important and critical. In the PGP organization, however, there is no dedicated section that oversees energy issues including power development. In the current situation, only six personnel from the Planning and Development Office were assigned to be engaged in the Master Plan Study. It is strongly recommended that this tentative organization be strengthened as an independent and dedicated section (e.g., a provisional energy department) and also that its capacity be reinforced. This provisional energy department must carry out the following tasks: • Periodical review and revision of the master plan; • Planning of individual power development and electrification programs and projects; • Preparation and analysis of necessary data for planning electrification programs and projects, and establishment of a system for such data that relevant organizations and persons can freely access;

8-8 • Coordination of and policy support for individual power projects, which are carried out by various stakeholders such as EC, NPC-SPUG, private investors, and beneficiaries; • Promotion of development and use of new-and-renewable energies for power development; • Provision of policy necessary for implementing the master plan, and negotiation with and petition to the national government and assembly for necessary policy and funding support; and • Establishment and management of a scheme for fundraising required for power development (A concrete rural electrification funding scheme is shown in the section 8.3)

In addition, to see that these organizational capabilities function effectively and to improve staff skills, it is necessary to continue programs of capacity building, not only for the organization but also for each staff member.

8.3 Establishment of an RE Fund and Construction of a Scheme for Mobilizing Funds

Organizations with a budgetary foundation, such as ECs and the SPUG, may face problems but are generally able to procure funds. In contrast, funding is hard to obtain for the diffusion of residential SHSs and mini-grid service, which have a vital role to play in electrification over the coming years. Provisions must be made to mobilize funds for them.

As an additional means of fund procurement, the Master Plan proposes the establishment of a rural electrification fund pool (REFP) managed by the PGP, as well as the promotion of RE with funds from this pool.

8.3.1 Funding Sources

The REFP would be a pool that manages several funds in the interest of administering funding available from various institutions. Its objective is to use these funds for additional investments on the project basis and for the provision of O&M budgets for existing facilities. Its major sources of base funds are as follows.

(1) Energy Regulation 1-94 Energy Regulation 1-94 (ER 1-94) is a funding source that is manageable by the PGP (see Section 2.3.2). To fund RE, the PGP could use the entire 0.5 centavos per kilowatt-hour from the Electrification Fund and a part of the 0.25 centavos per kilowatt-hour from the Livelihood Fund.

The Livelihood Fund was set up for applying funds to projects aimed at bettering the life of residents. Nevertheless, its funds may also be used for the cost of wiring houses to promote electrification and for operating costs required for power supply.

8-9 With the effectuation of the EPIRA implementing rules and regulations (IRR), ER 1-94 came to be applied even to small generators, which had previously been exempted from its application. As a result, even Delta-P and diesel power plants operated by the NPC-SPUG in Palawan will be obliged to pay the ER 1-94 levy, and this will constitute a financial resource.

(2) Share of benefits from utilization and development of natural wealth This is stipulated in Item B, Rule 29 of the IRR. It compels any agencies, corporations or other entities engaged in the utilization and development of national wealth (i.e., natural resources) to pay to the concerned LGU whichever is higher: 1% of their sales, or 40% of the national wealth taxes, royalties, fees or charges paid to the national government.

In Palawan, the Malampaya Natural Gas Project falls under this stipulation, which consequently can be applied to royalties from it. At present, however, there is a dispute between the PGP and the national government about whether or not the geographical location of the Malampaya gas field is actually in the province. A conclusion has not yet been reached on this question.

If the rights are recognized as belonging to the province, about 2 billion dollars in funding could be obtained by the end of 2021.

(3) Provision of funds from developed-country corporations There are good chances for utilization of renewable energy such as mini hydropower, photovoltaic systems and biomass in Palawan electrification projects. By applying the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to these projects, it would be possible to build a scheme for receipt of funding from companies from developed countries.

The basic idea would be to have a CDM fund established mainly by the PGP and seek contributions (i.e., a sort of equity) from companies that want to get quotas for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in other countries. The CDM fund could be used to fund investment for CDM projects. The GHG emission quotas would, in turn, be allocated among the investing companies, in proportion with their contribution.

The Philippines ratified the Kyoto Protocol in October of 2003, and therefore has footing for the introduction of CDM schemes. A decision has already been made to set up a designated national authority (DNA) for it within the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR). The national government and aid institutions are moving ahead with preparations for the launch of CDM projects applying renewable energy9. In this sense, the foundation for utilizing the CDM is now taking shape.

9 The UNDP has determined technical assistance for establishment of the DNA.

8-10 (4) Local taxes A local tax could be imposed on distribution companies in the province. The prospective targets would be ECs.

ECs receive continuous funding for the purchase of wholesale power from the SPUG, investment in distribution lines and facility O&M. This funding enables them to hold down their rates. In contrast, rates must be set on extremely high levels by electrification entities that lack schemes for such ongoing assistance (e.g., BAPAs). The local tax would be aimed at rectifying this inconsistency, if only by a slight degree.

In the following respects, however, the imposition of such a local tax would have to be preceded by in-depth studies among the concerned parties.

It cannot be denied that BAPAs, too, receive assistance for initial investment, in that they are furnished with facilities from LGUs and ECs virtually free of charge. Putting initial investment aside, the continuation of the service requires the retrieval of depreciation and repair costs, but arrangements have not yet been made for such funding, and this is creating problems for the business continuity. In fact, such problems are already surfacing. If all of these costs were transferred to customers under the beneficiary burden principle, the BAPA rate levels, which are already high at about 15 pesos per kilowatt-hour, could jump to 30-40 pesos with the addition of depreciation costs. Owing to such circumstances, it would in effect not be practical to transfer all costs to beneficiaries, and some kind of solution is therefore needed.

Another issue has to do with the reforms and the related actions aimed at correcting the structure of cross-subsidization that has been practiced for electric utilities thus far in the Philippines. Naturally, some may question the appropriateness of reallocating subsidies through such a scheme.

8.3.2 Application of Funds

Expenditures from the REFP resting on the aforementioned sources would be made through the following prospective framework.

(1) Promotion of SHS diffusion through the SHS fund Sales of SHS are already being assisted by grant aid from the Dutch government. This aid is supporting their diffusion, which is smoothly proceeding.

Under these circumstances, measures are being taken for the provision of loans to individuals from financial institutions and for the avoidance of the related risk of non-performing debt with aid from the UNDP-GEF in the context of the PNRELSP. There is also a movement for the use of APL from the World Bank to provide a financial source for the

8-11 flow of funds from commercial banks to local banks. These steps are aimed at paving the way for financing for individuals who have a low credit rating and would find it hard to borrow from ordinary commercial banks, by putting local banks and micro-credit in the middle.

In light of the risk of failure to repay loans, the establishment of a loss reserve fund to hedge the risk of default has been proposed in the PNRELSP.

At any rate, SHSs have a critical role to play in the electrification of Palawan and some institutional arrangements must be made to expand the extension of loans to individuals and to hedge risks in order to secure these loans.

To support SHS sales, the PGP must institute such a SHS fund in a manner consistent with the existing institutional mechanisms and use it to furnish assistance to dealers and funding to residents (e.g., public loans and partial subsidization of down payments).

(2) O&M fund as a reserve for retrieval of depreciation costs and O&M expenses for reinvestment in facilities Provisions have already been made for the loan of power generation facilities to BAPAs by LGUs or ECs. These provisions are expected to expand over the coming years.

Thus far, LGUs and ECs have lent facilities to resident organizations either for no fee or for only a nominal fee, and the facility costs have not been recovered through rates. The problem with this setup lies in the limited service life of the facilities; unless depreciation costs are retrieved, funding has to be procured all over again for facility reinvestment. This reveals a need for preparation of a financial scheme enabling recovery of the cost of facilities lent to BAPAs.

If the facilities are owned by the ECs, they are counted as assets on the EC balance sheet and are amortized in the context of EC financial affairs. As a result, even if depreciation costs cannot be retrieved from BAPAs, the EC can recover them from its rates (tariff revenue).

If the facilities are owned by LGUs, on the other hand, different problems would be involved. Because governments do not have balance sheets, they also lack the concept of depreciation. In addition, at present, the Palawan LGUs take only 1 peso in facility leasing fees from BAPAs, and this is obviously far from the genuine retrieval of depreciation costs. Furthermore, arrangements have not been made for the recovery of O&M costs from rates. As such, there is no mechanism for balancing expenditures (costs) and income (cost recovery). It will consequently become impossible to keep electrification projects in operation if the government does not make budget appropriations for them every year.

In addition, there is some cause for apprehension about the emergence of future problems if LGUs come to own even more facilities and continue to lend them to BAPAs under the current

8-12 conditions. This would lead to a steady swelling of the funds needed for reinvestment and the routine O&M costs. As a result, the financial burden on the PGP would become heavier by the year.

The objective of the O&M fund would be to resolve these problems and assume the burden of costs that cannot be transferred to rates.

(3) Investment fund for general projects This fund would be instituted to provide funds for additional investment in electrification or for the expansion of installed facilities. Its range of application should be as wide as possible in order to furnish the funds needed for construction of facilities owned by LGUs and lent to BAPAs, and to serve as part of the funds for investment by private enterprises.

Its prospective main sources would be the ER 1-94 Electrification Fund and the share of benefits from the utilization and development of the national wealth in accordance with IRR Item 29.

(4) Investment fund for CDM projects As described in the section on funding sources, this fund would be confined to CDM projects. It would collect contributions from overseas companies and apply funds to specific projects.

It should be noted that, because of the small scale of electrification projects in Palawan, application of the CDM to each project individually would be unrealistic, owing to the cost of obtaining authorization for each project separately. For this reason, the PGP must lead efforts to design a project that could serve as a model, obtain CDM authorization for it and then implement many others in the same manner.

Projects for which application of this fund is desired could be automatically made into CDM projects by following (in other words, copying) this model designed for such application.

With such preparations, the work of obtaining CDM authorization would be completed with the design of the initial model project. In this way, the concerned parties could avoid the redundant work of repeatedly obtaining authorization at the stage of project implementation.

CDM application requires considerable time and expense for the establishment of the baseline, assessment of the GHG-reducing effect and procedures for obtaining authorization as a CDM project. This work therefore should be undertaken quickly, beginning right from the stage of instituting the fund.

8-13 Overseas aid Developed-country Resource institutions investors development DOE BEP NEA General Universal Contributions IRR Rule 29, B ER 1-94 budget Appropriation charge WB-APL financing Management Rural Electrification Fund Pool Subsidies PGP (REFP)

Private-sector Subsidies financial Initial investment expenses, institutions O&M costs, assistance, etc. (banks, micro finance, etc.) Electrification projects

RESCO projects LGUs Private-sector mini grid Provision of facilities, Distribution companies O&M support NPC- BAPA EC SPUG SHS dealers POPS

Technical assistance SHS sales NGO Rate (revenue) Power supply Financing

Final customers

Source: Prepared by the JICA Study Team

Figure 8.2.1 Setup for Promotion of Electrification in Palawan

Resource NCP-SPUG development Delta-P ECs companies power plants Overseas aid Developed-country institutions investors Share of benefit ER 1-94 from utilization and New power SHS development of Livelihood Fund- Electrification Fund- dealers national wealth 0.25 centavos/kWh 0.5 centavos/kWh sales tax (IRR Rule29, B)

Private-sector financial Institutions Management Rural Electrification Fund Pool (REFP) PGP SHS fund (including General project CDM project O&M fund a loss reserve fund) Investment fund Investment fund

Initial investment expenses, O&M cost, assistance, etc.

Beneficiaries BAPA LGU ECs NPC-SPUG

Private-sector mini grid POPS Individuals NGO distribution companies

Source: Prepared by the JICA Study Team

Figure 8.2.2 REFP Scheme

8-14 8.4 Application to Other Provinces

The province of Palawan, which is the target of this Master Plan, is less economically developed than urbanized districts such as the Manila area, partly due to its geographical situation as an outlying island. As a result, the rate of electrification is also relatively low.

To the Philippines, rural economic development is a key priority that absolutely must be achieved if the country is to eradicate poverty. In addition, the promotion of RE provides leverage for rural economic development. This is behind the RE campaign that began with the O-Ilaw Project and evolved into the current ER program.

Attainment of the goal of electrifying all barangays by the end of 2006 is almost within reach. Both the national and local governments are continuing with efforts to attain the next goal, namely electrification of 90% of all households by the end of 2017.

As indicated in this report, the biggest problem facing RE promotion in the Philippines is the shortage of funds. Goals cannot be achieved on the strength of public-sector funds alone.

Resolving this problem will require the injection of private-sector funds and the establishment of business models that will make this possible. As was found in the Master Plan Study for Palawan, mini-grids and stand-alone systems have a vital role to play as means of electrification. Grid extension by ECs is the approach desired by many, but it could not feasibly be applied to all projects, considering the related cost and funds that must be procured.

What is needed for RE promotion is a variety of service models for power supply by off-grid approaches. The beneficiaries, too, must be encouraged to mount their own efforts as far as possible to have their barangays electrified and thereby build a better economy and life for themselves. In this sense, the measures to spur installation of SHSs, which will probably carry a lot of weight in the Palawan electrification program, as well as the expansion of individual loans to support it must be regarded as social experiments of crucial importance. This also applies to the projects for power supply by residents themselves based on the BAPA model and those for mini-grid distribution by qualified third parties that are the subject of World Bank APLs.

Each of these attempts is still wrought with numerous difficulties. As compared to power supply from the distribution network, SHSs have only a limited capacity. In addition, the rates in service through mini-grids operated by BAPAs are much higher than those offered by ECs, and the service operated by private companies based on APLs might magnify the burden on beneficiaries.

Nevertheless, it will be impossible to promote RE in the Philippines unless all parties incorporate new schemes and take up the challenge of new targets in spite of these problems. Problems cannot be resolved merely by looking for subsidies from the government for the

8-15 entire cost burden. In the midst of the far-reaching reform in the power sector, the government, too, has only limited funds and is no longer able to shoulder all costs as part of the fiscal burden.

Finally, it should be noted that the preparation of this Master Plan did not include in-depth studies on possible increases in income levels through electrification. Even so, electrification is heavily bound up with the payment capabilities of residents. Solutions will never be found merely by repeating the line that low-income levels would prevent residents from paying bills and, conversely, projects could not be executed because costs therefore could not be retrieved.

For this reason, the preparation of RE plans and program must incorporate projects for raising the income level of residents through electrification.

8-16 Environmental Checklist

S.1.1 Existing IEE Checklist

(1) Review of the Philippine environmental impact statement system Presidential Decree (PD) No.1151, which was proclaimed on June 6, 1977 and commonly known as the Philippine Environmental Policy, is the first policy issuance on the Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) system in the Philippine. In Section 4 of PD 1151, it is declared that all agencies shall prepare an environmental impact statement for every action, project and undertaking that significantly affects the quality of the environment. Then the Philippine EIS system was formally established on June 11, 1978 by virtue of PD No.1586.

PD No.1586 declared that environmentally critical projects (ECPs) and projects within environmentally critical areas (ECAs) require the submission of an EIS, and the proponents are not allowed to undertake or operate any part of such ECPs or projects within ECAs without first securing an Environmental Compliance Certificate (ECC).

After that the EIS system has undergone several improvements by continuously introducing new features and requirements, and now the EIS system is operated based on the DENR Administrative Order No.37, 1996 Series (DAO 96-37). According to DAO 96-37, in order to secure an ECC, proponents of ECPs are required to submit an EIS report with the Environmental Management Bureau (EMB). On the other hand, proponents of projects within ECAs are generally required to submit an Initial Environmental Examination (IEE) report to the concerned Regional Office of DENR-EMB. It is clarified that an IEE is a form of an EIS. The basic differences between these two documents are the depth and extent of the data requirement. An EIS report may be prepared instead of an IEE report for proposed projects within ECAs at the discretion of the proponent in certain cases or upon an order from the Regional Executive Director.

The projects or undertakings covered by the EIS system are defined as “any activity, regardless of scale or magnitude, which may have significant impact on the environment” in DAO 96-37. All of the projects and undertakings are not covered by the EIS system. In the case that the project is not covered by the EIS system, a Certificate of Non-Coverage (CNC) may be issued by the EMB or the DENR regional office upon request from a proponent.

For the selected projects with relatively small scales and magnitudes, an IEE checklist report has been developed by the DENR-EMB in line with the target of streamlining the EIS system. The IEE Checklist report is a simplified form, instead of the standard EIS document, designed to assist the proponents. The list of projects covered by the IEE Checklist is defined by the DENR-EMB Memorandum Circular No.01, 2000 Series. The Memorandum Circular also defines format, contents and implementing procedures for the IEE Checklist.

S-1 In this study, based on the review of the existing IEE Checklist Report, environmental checklists for the study of the power development master plan in Palawan Province were created.

(2) EIS process for the power facilities Power facilities and related facilities that defined as the ECPs by DAO 96-37 are following: ¾ Major dams with storage volumes equal to or exceeding 20 million cubic meters ¾ Geothermal plants, waste-to-energy facilities, thermal power plants with capacities equal to or exceeding 10MW ¾ Hydropower plants or any non-conventional power projects with capacities equal to or exceeding 6MW ¾ Power barges with total capacity in excess of 32MW

In addition, a Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) on the streamlining of EIS processes for power facilities and related facilities was reached between the DENR and DOE in 1999. This MOA, defined the kinds and scales of the projects for all facilities that were not covered by the EIS system. Also the projects covered by the EIS system are classified into following three categories; IEE checklist required, IEE report required, and EIS report required.

Regarding to the energy facilities mentioned in this MOA, Table S.1.1 shows the results for selecting and classifying the power facilities and related facilities. According to this MOA, only the power plants with capacities equal to or less than 1MW, substations and switchyard (up to 220kV) are classified as not being covered by the EIS system. Renewable energy, hydropower, and power barges with capacities equal to or less than 10MW are classified as the projects that required an IEE checklist.

As for Palawan Province, the classifications of Table S.1.1 are not applicable directly, because the entire province is classified as ECAs and the ECAN zoning was adopted. Although the transmission lines are classified as projects that require an IEE checklist in Table S.1.1, an EIS report is submitted to the DENR-EMB in the case of the Palawan backbone transmission line project.

S-2 Table S.1.1 Documents Required by the EIS System for Power Facilities as to the Kind and Scale in MOA between DENR and DOE To be covered by the EIS System Project Not covered by the EIS System* Requiring an IEE Checklist Requiring an IEE Document Requiring an EIS Document General ¾ Research (seismic survey, ¾ Any energy project that gravity survey, geoscientific, requires significant geophysical surveys, feasibility mechanical earth moving & study, others) and development ecological/vegetative activities that don’t involve disturbance activities Renewable Energy significant earth moving and ¾ Capacity from greater ¾ Capacity greater than (solar, wind, waste to ecological/ vegetative than 1 to 10MW 10MW energy, biogas, and disturbance activities using tidal power, mechanical equipment that geothermal) affect the environment S-3 Hydropower Plants ¾ All demonstrations and pilot ¾ Capacity from greater ¾ Capacity greater than energy projects, power plants than 1 to 10MW 10MW with capacity that is less than or ¾ Or with less than 20 ¾ Or water impoundment equal to 1MW as long as social million cu. m. water greater than 20 million cu. acceptability guidelines have impoundment m. Thermal power Plantsbeen complied pursuant to ¾ Bunker, diesel-fired and ¾ Capacity greater than DENR and the Local natural gas-fired with 10MW Government Code capacity less than or equal requirements to 10MW Power Barges ¾ Capacity from greater ¾ Capacity equal to 10 up to ¾ Capacity greater than than 1 to 10MW 32MW 32MW Power Transmission ¾ Substations/switch yard only ¾ Power transmission ¾ Submarine cables Systems and (up to220kV) system and substations Substations * Projects that are not covered by the EIS system may be issued Certificate of Non-Coverage （CNC） by the EMB or DENR regional office upon request from the proponent. There is no need for the proponent to prepare the IEE or EIS and to secure the ECC. Source: Study team (based on DENR-DOE Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) on Streamlining of EIS Processes for Energy Projects)

S-3 (3) Existing IEE checklists for the power facilities Based on the DENR-EMB Memorandum Circular No.01 Series of 2000, IEE checklists are prepared for the following power facilities; mini hydropower plant with capacity from greater than 1 to 10MW or with less than 20 million cubic meters water impoundment, power barges with capacity from greater than 1 to 10MW, and power transmission systems and substations greater than 220kV. It is possible to obtain these IEE checklists from the DENR-EMB website. And there is another example of the IEE checklist for land-based power plant (for thermal, hydropower, and renewable energy) made by DENR-EMB.

Basically the contents of the IEE checklists are as follows;

¾ General information regarding the proponent; project location, project area description, plan/design components and activities during the development and operation phases ¾ Information regarding the description of the existing environmental condition where the road or bridge will be located - the physical biological, socio-cultural and economic environment ¾ Listing of possible potential impacts that may occur in the various stages of the project establishment and operation; corresponding mitigation and enhancement measures to prevent the occurrence of adverse impacts and strengthen the positive effects of the project; ¾ Required attachments

As for the environmental checklist for this Master Plan, the description of the existing environmental condition and the impact assessment and the mitigation measures will be discussed among the above-mentioned contents of the existing IEE checklists.

(a) The description of the existing environmental condition The items included in the description of the existing environmental condition, which are described in the existing IEE checklists, are listed in Table S.1.2. They are roughly classified into the following three categories;

¾ Natural and physical environment such as topography, geology, water, air, disaster (erosion, flood, typhoon, earthquake, others) ¾ Biological environment such as significant wildlife, forest, vegetation, others ¾ Socio-cultural and economic environment such as settlements, infrastructures, economic conditions, others

As for the natural and physical environments, the existing IEE checklists cover the items that are considered to have major impacts or to be strongly related to the target power facilities, such as the river characteristics and water quality for mini hydropower plants, air pollution for power barges, and typhoons, tornadoes and lightning for transmission lines. As for biological environments, almost the same items are prepared for each power facility. As

S-4 for socio-cultural and economic environments, although detailed items are not entered in the case of land-based power plant, detailed items such as health conditions, education level, employment and income are included in the case of mini hydro, power barges and transmission lines.

To describe the existing environmental conditions, the proponent will answer “Yes” or “No” for the simple questions related to each component/parameter, select the most probable answer from among the proposed items, or describe the situation briefly. For example, Table S.1.3 shows the questions for each component/parameter and the description of remarks for the items.

S-5 Table S.1.2 Components / Parameters for Description of Existing Environment on the Current IEE Checklist Land-Based Power Plant Mini Hydropower Plant Power Barge Transmission Line, Substation 1. Slope and topography < Physical Environment > 2. Areas where soil erosion is possible 1. River characteristics 1. Coastal/marine ecology 1. Elevation range 3. Indicators of erosion, liquefaction, 2. Flood characteristics (Statistical 2. Bodies of water (creeks, rivers, 2. Slope and topography landslide, ground subsidence Flood Discharge) estuaries) that might be affected 3. General geology 4. Flooding during the wet season 3. Soil erosion, causes distance, depth, width, quality 4. Indications of landsliding or typhoon 4. Landslides 3. Water on quality information 5. Occurrences of flooding 5. Bodies of water within 1.5km 5. Present uses of bodies of water before the project 6. Soil type such as creeks or streams (washing, recreation,Source of 4. Existing aquatic flora & fauna 7. Indication of erosion occurring 6. Present usage of the body of drinking, Sanitation, irrigation, 5. Existing patterns of pollutant 8. Affected river or bodies of water;bathing, washing, fishing, fishing, others) sources water drinking, recreation 6. Present land use of the area (prime 6. Discussion of flooding events 9. Other natural drainage 7. Critical ecological system: agricultural land, Grassland, ways/creeks that drain S-6 mangrove, forestlands, aquifer, built-up, orchard, mangrove, towards communities sanctuary, corals fishpond, others) 7. Meteorological data downstream 8. Reclaimed area 7. Present water quality (pH, SS, (Temperature, wind) 10. Records of typhoons 9. Existing structures coliform, oil & grease, chlorides, 8. Ambient air quality 11. Records of tornadoes/twisters 10. Public or Private easements copper, lead, iron, manganese, (Particulate, others) 12. Nearest earthquake, fault 11. Existing environmental problems total hardness, alkalinity, 9. Stationary sources of emission zone or volcano, others within 500m; water pollution, air pesticides) 10. Mobile sources of emissions 13. Lightning strikes pollution, noise, erosion, flooding 12. Existing trees and vegetation 8. Flora &/or fauna of ecological or 11. Profile of the area (soil map) 14. Existing trees and other types 13. Birds and wildlife which have commercial significant in the of vegetation, list of the significant value bodies of water species 14. Fishery resources 9. Methods & data source to assess 12. Forest/mangrove reserve or a 15. Birds and other forms of the flora & fauna in the bodies of protected watershed area wildlife, list of the species water

S-6 15. Existing settlement that will be 10. Flora &/or fauna of ecological or 13. Limestone caverns or 16. Fishery resources in the affected ; households, legitimate commercial significance outside sinkholes in the bedrock bodies of water, list of the landowners, tenants, squatters the bodies of water 14. Berthing or pier structure species 16. Local organization 11. Methods & data source to assess 15. Erosion prone, status 17. Watershed or forest 17. Oppositions the flora & fauna outside the 16. Existing natural hazards reservation area bodies of water (e.g. storm surge, landslides, 18. Existing forest resources 12. Lying within a watershed or gullying, subsidence) (timber, fuel wood, non-timber forest reservation area 17. Identification of trees & products, food plants, other vegetation medicinal plants, wild (known wildlife, domesticated 13. Existing settlements in the animals) of households, families & < Socioeconomic Environment > 19. Existing settlements (number population) 19. Demographic Data of households and families,

S-7 14. Methods & data source to gain (Total population, average legitimate landowners, information on the existing household size, average tenants, caretakers, squatters) settlement age/sex distribution, ethnic 20. Total population of the 15. Social infrastructures (location composition, Community barangays & capacity of schools, health organizations, employment 21. Average family size centers, clinics, hospitals and data in the area, Male/female 22. Number of the houses (made others) ratio, population pyramid, of concrete, wood, brick, 16. Political situation (peace & marital status, specify whether adobe) order) rural or urban, dominant 23. Ancestral lands or indigenous 17. Major employment & income language/dialect spoken by people communities sources the populace, labor force & 24. Leading causes of morbidity 18. Existing local NGO employment) and mortality 19. Social acceptability of the Benefit for local inhabitants, 25. Existing local organizations project (community, cultural morals & lifestyle, 26. Social infrastructures government, NGO) women’s livelihood & roles (schools, health center/clinics, 20. Education/literacy data roads, communication, police literacy rate (overall, male/ station, community center, female), educational hospital, transportation, attainment (male/female) churches/chapels, others)

S-7 21. Income (income from the sea, distribution, source, present economic activities 22. Health Data (morbidity and mortality rates, infant morbidity, malnutrition data, birth rate, number of health facilities, doctors, nurses, health services, others < Current Waste Management > 23. Waste management techniques, drainage system & toilets Source：Land-based power plant DENR EMB RQE/9/18/2001/Guide for IEE Checklist on Land-Based Power Plants (final) Mini hydro, power barge, transmission line, substation DENR EMB Web Site (http://www.emb.gov.ph/eia/checklist.htm) S-8

S-8 No.1 to 5 in the case of a land-based plant are shown in Table S.1.3.

Table S.1.3 Examples for the Description of Existing Environment in the Case of a Land-Based Power Plant Components/Parameters Yes No Remarks 1. Slope and topography of the area covered by the project - Terrain is flat (0 - 3%) - Gently sloping our undulating (3 – 8%) - Undulating to rolling (8 - 18%) - Rolling to moderately steep (18 - 30%) - Steeply rolling (30 - 50%) - Very steep to mountainous (>50%) 2. Are there areas in the site where there Cause of erosion： are possible occurrence of soil erosion？ ［ ］heavy rains ［ ］unstable slope ［ ］others, Specify 3. Are there indicators in the area of the ［ ］erosion following? ［ ］liquefaction ［ ］landslides ［ ］ground subsidence ［ ］Non 4. Has the area experienced any flooding Period of flooding： during the wet season?

Causes of flooding： ［ ］low area ［ ］poor drainage ［ ］water-logged areas 5. Are there existing bodies of water If Yes, indicate the name and within 1.5km of the proposed building distance to the body of water. such as creeks or streams? Source: DENR EMB RQE/9/18/2001/Guide for IEE Checklist on Land-Based Power Plants (final)

(b) Impact assessment and mitigation measures The outline of the description about predicted impacts, evaluation and mitigation measures in the existing IEE checklists for each power facility are as follows;

As for a land-based power plant, various predicted impacts are listed and the proponents have to evaluate the significance of the impacts for the pre-construction, construction, and operation phases of the project, respectively. Some mitigation/enhancement measures are also described corresponding to each predicted impact. Evaluations of the significance of the impact is composed of the following four alternatives; positive or negative, direct or indirect, long-term or short-term, and reversible or irreversible. Table S.1.4 shows the predicted impacts and mitigation/enhancement measures for a land-based power plant.

S-9 Table S.1.4 Impact Assessment and Mitigation for a Land-Based Power Plant Significance of Impacts Predicted Impacts Mitigating/Enhancement Measures +/- D/In L/S R/I Pre-Construction and Construction Phase of the Project 1. Increase in dust ・ Regular watering of unpaved roads or exposed generation due to clearing, soil/ground civil works and earthmoving ・ Remove soil/mud from tires of trucks and activities equipment before leaving the area ・ Hauling trucks should be covered with canvass or any equivalent materials ・ Set-up temporary fence around the construction area 2. Top soil removal and loss ・ Stockpile the top soil in a safe place and use as due to earthmoving activities, final grading material or final layer transport, access road ・ As soon as possible, rip-rap or re-vegetate the construction area 3. Erosion from exposed ・ Conduct construction activities during the dry cuts and landslides due to season earthmoving and excavation ・ Avoid long exposure of opened cuts activities ・ Installation of barrier nets 4. Sedimentation/siltation of ・ Set-up temporary silt trap/ponds to prevent drainage or waterways from siltation unconfined stockpiles or soil ・ Proper stockpiling of spoils (on flat areas and and other materials away from drainage routes ・ Disposal of spoils generated from civil works as filling materials 5. Pollution of nearby body ・ Set-up temporary disposal mechanism within of water due to improper the construction area and properly dispose the disposal of construction generated solid wastes wastes ・ Set up proper and adequate toilet facilities ・ Strictly require the contractor and its workers to observe proper waste disposal and proper sanitation 6. Loss of vegetation due to ・ Limit land clearing as much as possible land clearing ・ Provide temporary fencing for vegetation that will be retained ・ Use markers and fences to direct heavy equipment traffic in the construction site and avoid damage to plants ・ Re-plant/plant indigenous tree species and ornamental plants 7. Disturbance or loss of ・ Re-establish or simulate the habitat of affected wildlife within the influence wildlife in another suitable area area due to noise and other ・ Schedule noisy construction activities during construction activities the day time ・ Undertake proper maintenance of equipment and use sound dampers 8. Noise generation that can ・ Schedule noisy construction activities during affect the nearby residents the day time ・ Undertake proper maintenance of equipment and use sound dampers 9. Generation of employment ・ Hiring priority shall be given to qualified local residents

S-10 Table S.1.4 Impact Assessment and Mitigation for a Land-Based Power Plant (Continued) 10. Right of way conflicts ・ Conduct consultations and settle agreements before finalizing the detailed design 11. Increased traffic and ・ Strict enforcement of traffic rules and possible congestion regulations ・ Proponents should provide traffic aid during peak hours 12. Increase in the incidence ・ Strictly require the contractor and its workers of crime and accidents to follow safety rules and regulations in the construction and in the locality (in coordination with local authorities) Operation Phase of the Project 1. Generation of domestic ・ Provision of an effective (at least 3-chamber effluents septic) tank ・ Provision of adequate wastewater treatment facilities 2. Generation of solid wastes ・ Separation of recyclable materials ・ Proper collection and disposal of solid wastes ・ Proper housekeeping and waste minimization 3. Increased traffic and ・ Strict enforcement of traffic rules and possible congestion as well as regulations increase risk of vehicular ・ Placement of signs and warnings in related accidents appropriate places Legend +/-：Positive impact/negative impact D/In：Direct impact/indirect impact L/S：Long-term/short-term R/I：Reversible/irreversible Source: DENR EMB RQE/9/18/2001/Guide for IEE Checklist on Land-Based Power Plants (final)

As for a mini hydropower plant, a total eighteen (18) items are listed as the predicted impacts regarding project location and design, construction phase, operation and maintenance, and abandonment and rehabilitation phase. The proponents have to evaluate those predicted impacts and answer the simple questions about mitigation measures. Regarding the evaluation, it will be described for the project specifications or relevant parameters considered as being the cause of environmental impacts. The magnitude of the impact will be selected from four degrees: none, low, moderate, and high. Regarding the mitigation measures, the proponents will select the most likely measure from among prescribed measures or specify other measures. Table S.1.5 shows some examples of impact assessment/mitigation measures for a mini hydropower plant. These are extracted from the existing IEE checklist for a mini hydropower plant.

S-11 Table S.1.5 Examples of Impact Assessment / Mitigation Measures for a Mini Hydropower Plant Evaluation Impact Relevant Subject and Magnitude of Mitigation Measures Parameters Impact Project Location and Design Loss of species due Height of the □ none □ No mitigation measure to obstructions to weir(m):_____ □ low □ Fishway or by-pass planned. movement of aquatic □ moderate Please describe the design and life □ high arrangement of the proposed mitigation facility and attach plans: □ Further measures, please specify. Dying out of the Minimum residual □ none How is the residual flow provided? riverbed between the flow with proposed □ low □ With a residual flow section in intake and the outlet project: □ moderate the weir -In m3/s or l/s: ____ □ high □ By-pass pipeline In % of mean annual □ Other, please specify: flow without proposed project: ___ Construction Phase Contamination of Storage, handling and □ none □ following of the regulation of soil and water due to disposal of dangerous □ low RA 6969 spilling of dangerous substances □ moderate □ Other measures, please specify: substances (fuel, oil, □ high lubricants, chemicals) Operation and Maintenance Accumulation of Design of intake □ none □ No mitigation measure floating debris at the □ low □ Measures to reduce or avoid intake □ moderate accumulations of floating debris □ high at the intake, please describe:

If there will be accumulations of floating debris at the intake, how will it be disposed? Please describe: Abandonment and Rehabilitation Phase Flooding due to Abandonment of plant □ none □ No mitigation measure blocking of facilities including all □ low □ Abandonment plan including abandoned dam or equipment (machinery, □ moderate cost estimate, please describe weir electro-mechanical □ high and attach plan: equipment) □ Other measures, please specify:

As for a power barge, a total of forty-five (45) questions are listed regarding the pre-construction/ construction, operation and maintenance, and abandonment and rehabilitation phases. The proponents have to evaluate those predicted impacts and answer simple questions about mitigation measures. The content of the questions are similar to the items for the description of the existing environments. They are composed of natural and physical, biological, and socio-economic environments including the following; excavation works and cut and fill activities during construction, impact on ecology, increase in the availability of employment, impact on indigenous people, noise, air pollution and hazardous waste during operation. The proponents replay to the questions by answering “Yes” or “No”, and describe the process

S-12 and impacts, as well as their mitigating/enhancement measures. There are no prescribed impacts or mitigation measures like the case of a land-based power plant or mini hydropower plant, so the proponents have to describe the impacts and mitigation measures by themselves.

Regarding the transmission lines and substations, the existing prepared format is the same as land-based power plant. But there are no descriptions of the impacts and mitigation measures, so the proponents have to prepare these on their own.

S.1.2 Environmental Checklist for the Master Plan

(1) Basic concept of making up environmental checklist In this Master Plan an electrification method with a stand-alone system such as SHS, BCS or a mini diesel were also studied regarding the barangay electrification plan. These stand-alone systems were excluded from the target of the environmental checklist because the impacts on environment from them during installation and operation are considered very small. Regarding distribution lines, usually they will be constructed along the existing roads. In this environmental checklist, it is considered that a distribution line is the same as in the environmental checklist of a transmission line. Regarding a wind power plant, it will be considered as the target of the environmental checklist because it is impossible to deny that there will be a study or survey on wind farms in the future.

Therefore the target facilities of the environmental checklist are as follows; ¾ Mini-micro hydropower plants ¾ Diesel power plants ¾ Power barges ¾ Transmission lines and substations ¾ Wind power plants

Again as mentioned in the foregoing paragraph, the IEE checklists have already been created by the DENR-EMB for mini hydropower plants, power barges, transmission lines and substations. They are opened to the public on the DENR-EMB website (http://www.emb. gov.ph/eia/checklist.htm) and can be downloaded. Diesel power plants and wind power plants are not listed on the DENR-EMB website, but the IEE checklist was prepared in the past for land-based power plants.

In the case that power plants or related facilities are considered in the Master Plan, it is necessary to study the development of those facilities. At the same time, the procedures that satisfy the existing Philippines EIS system will be necessary.

Therefore, the environmental checklist proposed by this Master Plan follows the style and the contents that have already been employed as the existing IEE checklists for mini-micro

S-13 hydropower plants, power barges, transmission lines and substations. Furthermore, items considered to be required will be added to the existing IEE checklist in consideration of the natural and social environments of Palawan Province.

Especially regarding transmission lines and substations, because there are no descriptions in the existing IEE checklists forms about the predicted impacts and mitigating/enhancement measures, they should be included as much as possible.

Regarding diesel plants, the existing IEE checklist for power barges will also be used as the checklist for a diesel power plant. It is considered that the existing IEE checklist for power barges cover the environmental consideration matters for diesel power plants such as noise or air pollution during operation

Regarding wind power plants, the environmental consideration matters will be listed with reference to other existing IEE checklists for a large-scale facility like a wind farm.

While the existing IEE checklists consist of many items, including the general information of the project and required attachments, the environmental checklist for the power development Master Plan narrows the targets to the description of the existing environment and the impact assessment and mitigation. By corresponding with the form of the existing IEE checklists for the EIS system, it will be useful as the basic information on the necessary data for requiring EIS documents at the time of development.

(2) Environmental checklist for a mini and micro hydropower plant The following contents will be added to the existing IEE checklist for a mini hydropower plant.

(a) Description of existing environment ¾ What area of the ECAN zoning is the project site located in? ¾ Are there limestone caverns or sinkholes around the project area? < Socio-cultural, economic environment> ¾ Are there any cultural heritage sites around the project area? ¾ Are there any ancestral lands or communities of indigenous people in and around the project area? ¾ Is the project site located in a NIPAS protected area?

(b) The impact assessment and the mitigation measures The items shown in Table S.1.6 will be added to the existing IEE checklist. Moreover, the items indicated as the predicted impacts and mitigating/enhancement measures of a land-based power plant shown in Table S.1.4 will be also examined if necessary.

S-14 Table S.1.6 Additional Impact Assessment / Mitigation Measure Items for a Mini Hydropower Plant Evaluation Impact Relevant Subject and Magnitude of Mitigation Measures Parameters Impact Project Location and Design Drying up of existing Relationship between □ none □ No mitigation measure source of water the proposed waterway □ low □ Secure an alternative source of supply along the route and existing □ moderate water supply waterway source of water supply □ high □ Further measures, please specify.

(3) Environmental checklist for diesel power plants and power barges The following contents will be added to the existing IEE checklist for power barges.

(a) Description of existing environments < Natural and physical environments > ¾ What area of the ECAN zoning is the project site located in? < Socio-cultural, economic environment > ¾ Are there any cultural heritage sites around the project area? ¾ Is the project site located in the protected area of NIPAS?

(4) Environmental checklist for transmission lines and substations The following contents will be added to the existing IEE checklist for transmission lines and substations, and the impact assessment and the mitigation measures will be described.

(a) Description of existing environment ¾ What area of the ECAN zoning is the project site located in? ¾ Are there any cultural heritage sites around the project area? ¾ Is the project site located in the protected area of NIPAS?

(b) The impact assessment and the mitigation measures Table S.1.7 shows the impact assessment and the mitigation measures for transmission lines and substations.

S-15 Table S.1.7 Impact Assessment and Mitigation Measures for Transmission Lines and Substations Predicted Impacts Mitigation Measures Pre-Construction and Construction Phases of the Project 1. Loss of vegetation due to land ・ Limit land clearing as much as possible clearing along the proposed route ・ Provide temporary fencing for vegetation that will be retained ・ Re-plant/plant indigenous tree species and ornamental plants 2. Top soil removal and loss due to ・ Stockpile the top soil in a safe place and use as final grading earthmoving activities, transport, material or final layer access road construction ・ As soon as possible, rip-rap or re-vegetate the area 3. Erosion from exposed cuts and ・ Conduct construction activities during the dry season landslides due to earthmoving and ・ Avoid long exposure of opened cuts excavation activities ・ Installation of barrier nets 4. Sedimentation / siltation of drainage ・ Set-up temporary silt trap/ponds to prevent siltation or waterways from unconfined ・ Proper stockpiling of spoils (on flat areas and away from stockpiles or soil and other materials drainage routes ・ Dispose of spoils generated from civil works as filling materials 5. Pollution of nearby body of water ・ Set-up temporary disposal mechanisms within the due to improper disposal of construction area and properly dispose of the generated construction wastes solid wastes ・ Set up proper and adequate toilet facilities ・ Strictly require the contractor and its workers to observe proper waste disposal and proper sanitation 6. Disturbance or loss of wildlife ・ Re-establish or simulate the habitat of affected wildlife in within the influence area due to another suitable area noise and other construction ・ Schedule noisy construction activities during the day time activities ・ Undertake proper maintenance of equipment and use sound dampers 7. Noise generation that can affect the ・ Schedule noisy construction activities during the day time nearby residents ・ Undertake proper maintenance of equipment and use sound dampers 8. Generation of employment ・ Hiring priority shall be given to qualified local residents 9. Conflicts in right of way ・ Conduct consultations and settle agreements before finalizing the detailed design 10. Significant decrease in the aesthetic ・ Consider the shape and color of the tower to minimize the value of the area due to the tower or impact to the aesthetic value of the area transmission line 11. Increased traffic and possible ・ Strict enforcement of traffic rules and regulations congestion ・ Proponents should provide traffic aid during peak hours 12. Increase in the incidence of crime ・ Strictly require the contractor and its workers to follow and accidents safety rules and regulations in the construction and in the locality (in coordination with local authorities) Operation Phase of the Project 13. Obstacle to the movement of ・ Installation of trails for wildlife wildlife 14. Economic growth as the result of ・ Stable supply of electricity stable supply of electricity 15. Increased traffic and possible ・ Strict enforcement of traffic rules and regulations congestion as well as increased risk ・ Placement of signs and warnings in appropriate places of vehicular related accidents

S-16 (5) Environmental checklist for a wind power plant The construction work of a wind power plant, including the construction of the tower to install the wind turbine, is considered to be similar to the construction of a transmission line. The environmental checklist for transmission lines and substations will be used as the environmental checklist of a wind power plant. The features peculiar to a wind power plant should be considered. The following contents and items will be added to the environmental checklist for transmission lines and substations.

(a) Description of existing environments ¾ Are there any the flyways of migratory birds around the planning site?

(b) The impact assessment and the mitigation measures Table S.1.8 shows the impact assessment and mitigation measures for a wind power plant. These will be added to the environmental checklist for transmission lines and substations.

Table S.1.8 Impact Assessment and Mitigation Measures added for a Wind Power Plant Predicted Impacts Mitigation Measures Operation Phase of the Project 1. Impact on migratory birds according ・ Paint the wind turbine blades with visible colors to the rotation of wind turbines ・ Slow the rotation of the large blades to allow birds to pass through 2. Noise of the wind turbine rotation ・ Adopt turbines that generate low noise during rotation

S-17 Database

The Study team created a database, which consists of a wide range of data collected in the Study. The database serves many functions. It can store the data, calculate it and retrieve the data that the planers want. Additionally, the database makes it possible to update data easily. At present, DOE and PGP have no databases for practical use for barangay electrification and power development at the provincial level. Databases can assist them in managing data related to the power sector, especially the electrification planning of un-electrified barangays. However, the data collected in the Study is the data at present and they will change over time (e.g. population data, socio-economic data, barangay boundary data and environmental conditions will change over time). Therefore, updating data and upgrading databases will be needed in the future. In this section, the basic concept and outline of the database is mentioned. For the details of each data item, please refer to the related individual sections.

S.2.1 Basic Concept of the Database

The database consists of the database software “ACCESS1” and GIS2 software “Arc View3”. The basic structure of the database is shown in Figure S.2.1.

ACCESS

Form (Barangay Base Data) Barangay Name ArcView DATABASE Population & Map Map (Barangay Electrification) Households Barangay Basic Data Electrification Condition Barangay Electrification Data - Barangay Center Data

Distribution Line Data

Diesel Power Data

Hydropower Data -

Form (Nearest Tapping Point) Hydropower Potential - Un Electrified Map (Diesel Power Plant Electrified Bgy Lti) Bgy ***km

Socio-Economic survey data Map Environmental Data

Figure S.2.1 Basic Structure of the Database

1 Copyright © Microsoft. All rights reserved 2 Geographic Information System 3 Copyright © ESRI. All rights reserved

S-18 Most of the data for the database is collected by the Study team in the Study, and the spatial data for GIS is mainly from PGP. All data are stored in 1 storage box “DATABASE”. ACCESS and ArcView share these data. This kind of database is called a “Personal Geodatabase”. ACCESS can help users to retrieve the data they want and to update the data easily by using the “Form”. On the other hand, ArcView can show not only the special data, but also attributes on the screen. Therefore, this software can help users to prepare maps for a presentation (e.g. Barangay Electrification Level Map, Hydropower Potential Classification Map, Environmental Protected Barangay Map and others). The operation of the database is interactive on the screen for easy operation and users can select contents and retrieve the data easily.

S.2.2 Contents of the Database

The database contents are summarized below;

- Barangay Base Data - Electrification Condition - Demand Forecast - Distribution Line - Diesel Power - Mini-Micro Hydropower - Photovoltaic System Contents of Database - Barangay Electrification - Transmission Line - Environment Contents of Database - Power Development (WASP) - Data Updating Figure S.2.2 Main Menu of the Database

Storing these sector data in the database makes it possible to calculate and extract data that users want by using the “Form”. Here is a part of the forms used in the database.

(1) Barangay Base Data This form shows the basic data of a barangay that was selected by users through a dialog box for a barangay selection (see Figure S.2.3). The data contents shown in this form are listed below.

- Population and number of households - Electrification level and methods - Barangay boundaries and location of a barangay center - Data from a socio-economic survey

S-19 Location Data Select Barangay

Select Municipality

Popularion & Households Data Electrification Condition Data

Figure S.2.3 Form of Barangay Base Data

(2) Electrification Conditions This form is useful to grasp the current electrification conditions in a province. The data is mainly from ECs (in this case, from PALECO and BISELCO). Electrification Level - Barangay electrification ratio (%) - Household electrification ratio (%) - No. of barangays by electrification level - No. of barangays by electrification method 1 (EC-grid, mini-grid or stand-alone) - No. of barangays by electrification method 2 (more detailed classification) Electrification Method Figure S.2.4 Form of Electrification Condition

(3) Power Demand Forecast This form can calculate the data for power demand forecasts and show the results of power demand forecasts for the barangay electrification and power development of the EC-grids. In this form, users can set parameters for the power demand forecasts.

Consumption Pattern for Mini-grid System

Consumption Pattern for Photovoltaic System

Figure S.2.5 Form of Power Demand Forecasts (Daily Energy Consumption Pattern)

S-20

Demand Forecast (kW) For Mini-Grid system

Demand Forecast (kWh) For Mini-Grid system

Figure S.2.6 Form for Power Demand Forecasts (Results of Power Demand Forecast)

(4) Distribution Line Storing data for a distribution line with spatial information gives valuable information to planners since the feasibility of distribution line extension for the electrification of un-electrified barangay depends on its expansion length. The database stores the location data of a barangay center, and storing these data makes it possible to retrieve data on barangays that are located around a certain barangay electrified by a distribution line. The database also can retrieve the nearest barangay center for a target barangay and calculate distances between them automatically. Additionally, applying the criteria for the electrification level of the calculated data, the database makes it possible to find the nearest barangay electrified by a distribution line for a certain un-electrified barangay and to calculate the distance between them. The form for a distribution line includes following items.

- Barangay data connected to a distribution line (includes electrification conditions for neighboring barangays) - The nearest tapping point and distance (for a un-electrified barangay) - Cost data for distribution line extension

Figure S.2.7 shows the form of a distribution line.

Target un-electrified Barangay Data Distance Nearest tapping point Data

Figure S.2.7 Form of Distribution Line (Nearest Tapping Point)

S-21 (5) Diesel Power The form shows the technical data and cost data for diesel power. The form consists of 2 components (diesel power for a mini-grid and stand-alone system, and diesel power for the backbone grid). The technical data and cost data of the candidate diesel power plant that will be developed to meet the demand of the backbone grid in the future are used in WASP analysis. The form for distribution lines includes the following items.

- Technical data and cost data (for a mini-grid and stand-alone system) - Technical data and cost data (for the backbone grid connection) - Existing power plant data

Diesel Power Plant Technical Data Figure S.2.8 Form of Diesel Power

S.2.3 GIS Map

The database can also store spatial information for GIS. Using the GIS software application “Arcview”, which was installed for DOE and PGP at the beginning of the Study, planners can create a variety of maps for a visual presentations. Figure S.2.9 shows the conceptual diagram of the GIS mapping.

DATABASE Spatial Data Spatial & Barangay Boundary Data Graphical

Table Data Barangay Electrification Data - Electrification LEVEL Add Individual Attribute Value 1 LEVEL I 2 Un-Electrified 3 LEVEL II

-

Figure S.2.9 Conceptual Diagram of GIS Mapping

S-22 Once a planner creates a map in ArcView (saved as the “map document file” extension “.mxd”), they do not have to update the file in ArcView since table data is updated through an update form in the ACCESS software. The Study team has prepared the following map document files in the Study.

- Barangay Electrification Map (all of Palawan, detailed Map for Municipalities) - Existing Diesel Power Plant Map - Mini and Micro Hydropower Potential Location Map - River Gauging Station Map - Existing Distribution Line Map4 - Transmission Line Map5（existing and under construction transmission line） - Environment Protected Barangay Map - Indigenous People Living Location Map

Figure S.2.10 and S.2.11 shows examples of the GIS maps.

Figure S.2.10 Barangay Electrification Map (all of Palawan)

4 Distribution lines are shown as lines between barangay centers since PALECO does not have an exact location map for the existing distribution lines at present. 5 Transmission lines are plotted based on roughly estimated location maps since SPUG does not have an exact location map for the existing backbone transmission line at present.

S-23

Figure S.2.11 Transmission Line Location Map

S.2.4 Data Updating

Data updating is an important job in order to grasp precisely the current status of electrification in the province and this work requires database manageability. Considering that such points are required, the Study team put the form for updating data on the database. A series of forms make it easy for planners to update. Figure S.2.12 shows a form for updating data.

Figure S.2.12 Form of Updating Data

S-24

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Office of the Provincial Planning and Development (2002), Summary of the 2003 Projects of the Energy Stakeholders in the Province of Palawan, Energy Committee Meeting, November 6, 2002, Puerto Princesa Palawan Electric Cooperative, Inc. (2002), 24th Annual General Membership Meeting, August 24, 2002, Roxas, Palawan Palawan Integrated Area Development Project Office (1989), Palawan Hydrometric Network, Volume 1 ,Annual Databook 1988 Palawan Museum, (1991), BOUNTIFUL PALAWAN 1991, Puerto Princesa Provincial Development Council of Province of Palawan, MEDIUM TERM DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2003-2012, October 2, 2003, Puerto Princesa, Palawan Department of Environment and Natural Resources, (2002), SUMMARY OF EMISSION TEST (PARAGUA, 2002), DENR-EMB Region-IV, 2002, Manila (2000), MEMORANDUM CIRCULAR #01 Series of 2000 IEE Checklist for Selected Projects, DENR-EMB, 2000, Manila Provincial Information Office, Discover Palawan, Philippines, Province of Palawan, Puerto Princesa UNDP (2000), Project Document—Palawan New and Renewable Energy and Livelihood Support Project, United Nations Development Programme University of the Philippines Solar Laboratory/UP Engineering Research and Development Foundation, Inc. (2002), Palawan New and Renewable Energy and Livelihood Support Project—Formulation of Palawan Renewable Energy Policies (Fourth Progress Report/Annual Report Year 2001), UP Engineering Research and Development Foundation, Inc., February 2002, Manila (2001), Palawan New and Renewable Energy and Livelihood Support Project—Formulation of Palawan Renewable Energy Policies (Second Progress Report/Annual Report Year 2000), February 2002, Manila

DENR-EMB Web Site, http://www.emb.gov.ph/ NEA Web Site, http://www.nea.gov.ph NSCB Web Site, http://www.nscb.gov.ph/ NSO Web Site, http://www.census.gov.ph PCSD Web Site, http://www.pcsd.ph/ PD WIRE & CABLE Web Site, http:// pdwireandcable.com/