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Chapter 5 Barangay Electrification Plan 5.1 Procedure of the Barangay Electrification Plan 5.1.1 Electrification Target

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Chapter 5 Barangay Electrification Plan 5.1 Procedure of the Barangay Electrification Plan 5.1.1 Electrification Target Chapter 5 Barangay Electrification Plan 5.1 Procedure of the Barangay Electrification Plan 5.1.1 Electrification Target The government has set the target of electrifying 100% of the barangays by 2006 and to achieve 90% household electrification by 2017. In accordance with this target, the Study team has set up a target of the total (100%) barangay electrification by 2006 in Palawan Province as well. In the next three (3) years up to 2006, barangay electrification will be the main focus of the Master Plan. After achieving entire barangay electrification, the focus will move on to the improvement of household electrification. Based on the present electrification level and information obtained through the Study including demand forecasts, capacity to pay, fund availability, the plan for improving household electrification will be determined. ?% Barangay Electrification Ratio HH Electrification Ratio 100% 2003 2006 2015 Figure 5.1.1 Electrification Target 5.1.2 Barangay Electrification Program There are 431 barangays in Palawan. The number of electrified barangays was 271 as of December 2003. The remaining 160 barangays will be targeted in the Study. 5-1 5.1.3 Prioritization of Barangay Electrification It is impossible to electrify the 160 barangays all at once, due to the limitation of various resources. Therefore, some prioritization will be necessary. The Study has considered three factors for the prioritization; (1) Electrification cost and O&M cost Electrification cost and O&M cost should be the most important factors to prioritize barangay electrification since the government development fund is limited and low electricity tariffs at present may not be able to cover the O&M cost. (2) Social and economic benefits Social and economic benefits will be considered by putting higher priority on socially important areas and social and economical development areas among the un-electrified areas. This may not lead to the most affordable solution, but economical feasibility will be taken into consideration. (3) Social equity One of the objectives of electrification is to target poverty alleviation and narrowing the poverty gap between areas. Electrification should contribute to well-balanced social and economical development in the province and improve living conditions in the areas. In MEDP 2003, criteria and their weightings for the electrification projects for un-electrified areas that are unviable have been determined. The cost factor is given the highest priority. Table 5.1.1 MEDP Electrification Criteria Criteria Indicator Weight 1) Low Level of Electrification Access to Electricity by Families by Province 20% 2) Economic Efficiency Connection Cost per Households 50% 3) Eradication of Poverty Poverty Incident of Families by Province 15% 4) Equity of Regional Development GRDP per Capita per Household 10% 5) Environment Friendly Technologies 5% Source: 2003 MEDP 5.1.4 Electrification Method Three electrification methods are considered in the study: (1) Extension of the existing EC-grid, (2) a mini-grid system and (3) a stand-alone system. The appropriate electrification method for each un-electrified barangay will be selected from these three options. (1) Extension of the existing EC-grids: Electrification connecting to the existing distribution lines of ECs, most of which areas are provided with 24-hour electricity. 5-2 (2) Mini-grid systems: There will be electrification by a power plant (micro hydro or diesel) that supplies power to the households nearby, where grid expansion may be difficult, physically or economically. Its generation capacity will be above 30kW. (3) Stand-alone systems: There will be electrification by SHS (Solar Home System), BCS (Battery Charging System) and a small-scale diesel generator (mini-diesel generator). Table 5.1.2 Electrification Method Power system Capacity & Households Power sources 1) Extension of the EC grid Connection to the existing EC-grid with 24-hour supply 2) Mini-grid system Cap.>30kW • Diesel Electrification by a power plant HH>300 • Hydropower (Mini or Micro) that supply power nearby 3) Stand-alone system Cap.<30kW • SHS HH<300 • BCS (Battery Charging System) • Mini-diesel generator 5.1.5 Methodology to Select an Appropriate Electrification Method An appropriate electrification method is determined for each un-electrified barangay from the electrification methods described above. The methodology for determination is as follows: (1) Screening by restricted areas for development and on-going electrification programs This screening eliminates barangays which are located in restricted areas of ECAN (refer to chapter 3.7.1 (1)) and barangays where electrification projects are already ongoing for a target barangay for electrification with the EC-grid extension and a mini-grid system. A stand-alone electrification method is determined for these eliminated barangays by reason of ECAN restricted areas. (2) Posibility of EC-grid extension The possibility of an EC-grid distribution line extension will be examined. The long-run marginal cost (LRMC) of a mini-grid system (diesel or micro hydropower) with the capacity for electrifying a barangay is compared to the LRMC of EC-grid extension (see Figure 5.1.2). When the LRMC of EC-grid extension is more economical than the LRMC of a mini-grid system, EC-grid extension is selected as the electrification method for a barangay. Considering future extension of a distribution line, it is better for a barangay to use EC-grid extension. Therefore, although a barangay is already electrified by a mini-grid or stand-alone system, the possibility of EC-grid extension is examined for the electrified barangay. 5-3 Fig.5.1.2 Annual Cost of Distribution Line Expansion & Diesel &Hydro 45 Distribution Line Extension 40 Distribution (Php/kWh) 35 Diesel (Php/kWh) 30 Hydro (Php/kWh) 25 Mini-grid (Hydro) 20 Annual Annual Cost (Php/kWh) 15 10 Mini-grid (Diesel) 5 Long-run Marginal Cost (Php/kWh) Cost (Php/kWh) Marginal Long-run 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Distance from Tapping Point (km) Figure 5.1.2 Cost Comparison of EC-Grid Extension and Mini-Grid System (3) Examine the possibility of a mini-grid system The possibility of electrification by a mini-grid system is examined for barangays to which EC-grid extension is not applied above. A mini-grid system requires a minimum capacity of demand to become feasible. Diesel generators with a reliable power-supply-use would be more than 30kW in capacity. Micro hydropower also requires a capacity of 30kW from an economical point of view. According to the socio-economic survey (refer to Section 4.2) and the demand forecast (see Section 5.1.3 (4), forthcoming), average household power demand is estimated to be 106W in the target electrification area. Therefore, 30kW demand capacity translates into approximately 300 households. In the Study, barangays with more than or equal to 300 potential households will be suitable for electrification using a mini-grid system. LRMC of diesel and micro hydropower is compared and a power system with a lower LRMC is selected for the electrification of the barangay. On the other hand, barangays with less than 300 potential households will not be feasible for electrification using a mini-grid system, and so consequently a stand-alone system will be considered. (4) Stand-alone system A stand-alone system has 3 candidate methods for electrification (SHS, BCS and a mini-diesel) and there is no determined way for the selection of each method. For example, we can select an appropriate method by comparing annual cost per household in each method. An example shown in Figure 5.1.3 shows that a mini-diesel generator system would provide electricity at lower cost if more than 15 households are concentrated. 5-4 9,000 8,000 Mini-Diesel 7,000 SHS 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 SHS Mini-Diesel 2,000 1,000 Annual Cost per Household 0 Production cost (P/Household) 0 5 10 15 20 25 Number of Target Household Figure 5.1.3 Cost Comparison between SHS and Mini-Diesel 5.2 Power Demand Forecast 5.2.1 Target of Power Demand Forecast There are two different approaches to power demand forecasts in general. One is the macro-method and the other is the micro-method. In the macro-method, future power demand is forecasted through the analysis of the historical correlation between power demand and an economic indicator such as GDP or a historical trend of power demand. In the micro-method, the components of power demand are estimated individually and future power demand is obtained by adding up the components. Each method has its own advantages and disadvantages. For data collection, the macro-method needs time-series data over a long period. In contrast, the micro-method requires a wide variety of data. Therefore, the employed demand forecasting method depends on the target of the power demand forecast. The targets for the power demand forecast in the Study is classified into the three areas1 below in the electricity supply system. (a) Electrified areas by NPC-SPUG and ECs (PALECO and BISELCO) (b) Electrified areas by SHS, BCS, BAPA, LGU, others (c) Un-electrified areas NPC-SPUG and ECs make their own power demand forecasts every year. In the case of (b), potential power demand is generally forecasted in advance of the implementation of an electrification project. However, it is not general to continue conducting power demand forecasts after electrification. Therefore, area (b) is the same (c) as un-electrified areas from the viewpoint of power demand forecast. 1 The number of Barangays in (a), (b), and (c) are 212, 59, and 160 respectively. (Dec. 31, 2003) 5-5 For these reasons, the target of the power demand forecast in the Study was finally classified into two areas. In addition, the target year of the power demand forecast in the Study is 2015.
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